11/30/2025 ... nor'easter?

The pattern I've been talking about for 4-6 weeks is coming to fruition! 

Surface chart and radar

Today's storm

We can see the low pressure moving into southeast Canada bringing in light snow showers across parts of the region, As temperatures warm Much of the snow across New York State into New England is going to change over to rain during the afternoon. General snowfall accumulations across New York state and into New England should be a trace to perhaps 3 inches. But the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks and the northern Greens could see 4-10 inches of snow, as this light snow will continue into tonight, along with some lake effect snow developing. Today is going to be quite chilly and breezy, with general southern wind  gust of 35-45 miles an hour possible at times.

Any lake effect should be dwindling down Tomorrow morning. High pressure will built in providing a fairly nice day.

Storm for Tuesday into Wednesday

We're going to see the disturbance moving across the central Plains and it's going to be interacting with a disturbance with moisture coming up out of the Gulf of America. 

A shortwave trough is going to move across dragging in colder air across a large part of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. We're likely to see some low pressure develop along the boundary of the cold to the north and the warmth to the south. This shortwave is going to interact with the energy coming towards the Carolinas, likely leading to a coastal low developing. There is a chance that this could develop into a possible nor'easter.With the strong jet streak overhead this could rapidly strengthen as it's moving north and east. With this idea in mind, this could bomb out as it heads towards Nova Scotia.

The GFS model is being much more aggressive with this than the EURO model. But there seems to be a trend that is having the storm  develop  further south and east. 

Based on that idea here are my 1st thoughts on possible impacts across the region.

Ice could be an issue for parts of the Appalachians into parts of western Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania. But Delaware and central/southern New Jersey should be dealing with just a rain mix and plain rain.

For DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City precipitation will likely start out as snow, before changing over to a rain mix and then rain. A trace to a inch Will be possible across these areas.

North and west of the I-95 corridor will see more in the way of snow

For Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island up into southeastern Massachusetts including the Cape and Off-Shore islands a trace to 2-3 inches. While northern Connecticut and most of the rest of Massachusetts  including Boston could see 2-6 inches of snow.

Western Pennsylvania western New York could see a trace to perhaps as much as 3 inches, Northern New York state Into northern Vermont And northern New Hampshire and northern Maine 2-4 inches of snow is possible, with central Pennsylvania, central New York State, Central Vermont, Central New Hampshire and central Maine 3-6 inches of snow is possible.

Across northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, southeast New York State (Including the central Hudson valley), as well as parts of the Adirondacks, northwest Connecticut, much of Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire into southern Maine there could be a heavy thump of snow. The pattern is very progressive So this will be a fast moving storm. A general 4-8 inches could fall with higher amounts possible, This will be especially true for the Catskills up into the Berkshires and southern Greens where 10-14 inches could fall. 

Thursday we are going to see a strong cold front dropping across New York State and into the rest of the region. Behind this cold front we are going to see Colder air Reinforce the cold air that's already in place, This will lead to widespread snow showers across parts of the region with heavy bands of lake effect possible downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.

These are just my preliminary thoughts There is plenty of time for things to change impacts will depend on the exact track the storm takes.

Taking a look at December!

Meteorological Winter starts on December 1st.

Tropopause:

Looking at the temperatures in the tropopause, that area between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere, is very cold and it is pointed right at the lower 48 here in the United States.

During this past fall, I was posting almost every week on how the winter pattern was evolving and how it was comparing to past winters. In one of the winter post In September I brought up the winter of 1983-1984 as a possible analogue and how we had an early Sudden Stratopheric warming event that occurred in November 1983. That event led to a very cold December across the eastern 2⁄3 of the United States.

Like we did in 1983, we are dealing with another early sudden stratospheric warming event, The current event looks to allow this coming December to also be quite cold. 

Image credit tropical tidbits

The European model is showing an overall northwest flow during at least the 1st half of December. This keeps the eastern US quite cold. This also sets up a storm track that favors the Great Lakes, Midwest into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. 

The active weather we have been seeing looks to continue for at least the next 2-3 weeks.  With the cold air that looks to be locking into place along with an active storm track that looks to favor the Northeast and Middle Atlantic a large part of December is looking to be very snowy. I touched on all this in the winter outlook. What I said in the outlook is indeed looking to become increasingly likely. There are strong hints that behind the Tuesday storm of this week we could see another snow storm move through the region next weekend!