11/21/2025

 Fairly nice right now. But changes are on the way!

Current surface chart and regional radar.

We have high part pressure starting to give way to the system approaching from the west. Temperatures are fairly mild for this time of year. The winds will be increasing as we move through the afternoon. Most of the region is dry but cloudy. But we do have a few rain showers and snow showers up over northern Maine Associated with the system passing to our north ahead of that approaching cold front triple point. (That area where all the different fronts converge).

That weak moisture starved cold front is going to continue to advance across the region. Bringing a few rain showers and higher elevational snow showers moving west to east across most of New York State and much of New England.  Those closer to the southern part of the disturbance will see more in the way of rain showers across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and into part of Southeast New York State,  Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Reaching the Middle Atlantic into southern New England tonight into Saturday morning. General rainfall amounts range from quarter to half an inch, With some areas that could see higher amount That could approach an  inch. The rain from the southern system will be fairly widespread and could be moderate at times. Rain should be departing the region by late morning early afternoon.

In the IR satellite image we can clearly see that disturbance in the southern sub tropical jet stream.  below this, the water vapor image shows that there is limited interaction (phasing) between the disturbance in the subtropical jet and the disturbance that's in the polar jet stream. This is why most of the rain is over the southern half of our region. The lack of phasing kept this as a much weaker storm.

On Sunday A warm front will be lifting through the region. Most of the Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers Will be over the northern parts of our region the closer to the Canadian border you are the more likely you are to see this rain and snow. For Monday high pressure will be building in providing a fairly tranquil day and mostly dry conditions But there could be a few higher elevation snow showers Over those northern areas. Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be very unsettled. Tuesday we will see rain and higher elevation  snow showers move across the region On Wednesday as a system moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada we will see rain and elevational snow showers moving across the region. Temperatures will be mild enough that most of us will see just rain. Rain looks to be widespread and will be locally moderate to heavy at times. Winds on Wednesday will also be very gusty. These winds will continue into Thanksgiving as well. The system will be pulling away on Thursday, for most of us Thanksgiving Day shouldn't be too bad, but  later in the afternoon we're going to likely be seeing  lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on the back side of the departing system. These snow bands could end up being fairly strong. Those living in these areas or those traveling to or from areas near the Great Lakes will want to keep this in mind. Black Friday will be chilly but it looks to be mainly dry and breezy, lake effect will likely be continuing downwind of the Great Lakes. Temperatures will continue to drop heading into the weekend and beyond.

For at least the 1st half of December the pattern is looking increasingly likely to be very blocky, volatile and active. With the cold air looking likely to be in place the potential is there for quite a bit of snow. I guess we will see!

11/20/2025

 Today is nice and dry. But tomorrow the pattern starts to be active once again!

Current surface chart regional radar and national IR satellite.

High pressure is sitting over the region resulting in a day with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds are light generally running 0-5 miles per hour. After a very cool start  temperatures are warming up under this November sun providing temperatures that are slightly below average. The regional radar is showing the entire region is generally rain free, with only a slight chance for an isolated rain shower or flurry. We have a split flow over the United States. This is the reason the cold air is up over Canada. On the IR satellite we can see the disturbance in the northern polar stream and the other disturbance in the southern subtropical stream. 

The southern disturbance over the Tennessee river valley,  is going to continue to track north and east, interacting with the disturbance to its north. We're going to have a warm front Lift through the region Later today into friday morning, a light southern flow will allow temperatures to warm up. Then a weak cold front will be working across the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. As the cold air tries to bleed in from the north the moisture from the southern disturbance that is going to be heading towards the Middle Atlantic region; will try to produce snow showers. But our temperatures are going to be mild enough that outside of northern Maine where a light accumulation of a dusting to maybe a few spots where a couple inches might be possible, the rest of the region should see just plain rain out of this. This front is going to be moisture starved with most of the limited moisture out of it staying up over Canada. So any rain will be very spotty and lite. Friday night into Saturday the rain will be tracking generally south and east, with any precipitation exiting the region late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. We're going to have high pressure building in for later Saturday and Sunday.  Sunday into Monday The high pressure should generally still be in charge. But we will have a shortwave trough up in Canada that could get close enough  possibly bringing a bit of snow over far northern New York State and northern New England. The closer to the border you are the better your chance of seeing some snow. Over New York State and northern into central New England There will be a  chance for a few rain showers  and higher elevation snow showers. The rest of the region should stay dry. Tuesday is looking like high pressure will briefly set up. But it will be tracking out of the region for Wednesday

I've been talking about the possibility of a storm moving through before thanksgiving. I've been going back and forth about the possibilities of snow with this. That's because I've been paying more attention to the models than I should have. But now I'm basically going back to my original premise where we will have the two disturbances moving west to east across the United States. The leading disturbance should track over the Great Lakes or the western half of Pennsylvania and New York State. This is going to keep most of that cold air Locked up in Canada. We're going to see a cold front move across the region on Wednesday. As the cold front slides across the region we will probably see low pressure developing near or over Maryland , Delaware Into  the Delmarvia.. This will help enhance rainfall. At least right now, the vast majority of the region should see just rain out of this. But those higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could end up with a snow, sleet, freezing rain mix. Thanksgiving Thursday should see high pressure move in and set up providing a fairly nice day, with seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions. I don't expect this to have big implications on Pre-Thanksgiving day travel.

As I've been saying for quite some time, past Thanksgiving the pattern is going to cool off a lot from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. As we move into December the cold air is going to continue to stream into the Northeast, With temperatures steadily becoming much much colder. With the  cold we could see a storm impact our region as early as next weekend. The setup that is evolving has Low pressure off the coast The Carolinas and Georgia. From here the storm could track out to sea or it could ride up the coast. This far out we're just talking about potential. But if this does end up tracking up the coast with all that cold air in place It could end up being a regional snowstorm. The pattern looks to stay very active in the northern and southern jet streams. With this in mind December could end up very snowy. I'm not trying to alarm anyone Just trying to talk about the potential moving forward into December.

That's it for today. I want to thank all y'all for following me. I tried to keep you informed with the data and information that I have, without all the hype and scare tactics you get from many other sites on social media. Weather is very complex but I try to break it down Into an easy to read format that doesn't lose a lot of the science behind it. To produce this product for y'all It takes a couple of hours of prep work, That's time I have to pull from other spots in my life, that are equally important and busy. For that reason I really need your help in trying to grow this blog page. The old northeast weather page Had over 15,000 followers, but the weather group that you are mostly getting the link for my post from only has around 1,000-1,500 that are following it, However there's only a small fraction of 5-10 percent... Who view, like or comment on anything that I post! .I really need this to change. I not only want to grow the weather group I  also want to see a lot more people  viewing the blog. Besides my weather post There are also several pages on the blog that have a lot of weather data available at your fingertips. All I ask is that all y'all pass the word on And campaign a little about all of this, if you like what I'm doing and what you see. I like to think the blog has a lot of bang for the buck And is one of the best weather sites on social media. And it's also all free many times to get this kind of information You have to pay to see it. Anyway thank you for following my post You are all very important and valuable to me!

11/19/2025

 System departs leaving nice weather in its wake!

November has been rather coolish across the region. The 1st week to 10 days saw generally seasonal temperatures, Some days were a bit warmer other days were a bit cooler. But overall temperatures across the region averaging out to near average during that time. The rest of the month has generally been cooler.  Our month to date temperatures across Pennsylvania, New York State and New England are running around 1-3 °F below average. But there have been pockets across northern Maine as well as parts of Southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware into southern New Jersey  have been running slightly above average overall. With all the coolness several areas across the region have seen winter start "early" With many parts of New York State into New England having seen snow accumulation earlier than the last few winters.

Image credit Prism group, Oregon state university.

Getting into today and the rest of this week. Let's take a look at the surface chart ,regional radar and latest satellite image

The surface chart shows low pressure to our south is exiting to the east as high pressure approaches and is building into the region. The system that's departing for the most part kept the precipitation over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey But a little bit of it did sneak into Southern Connecticut. There was a light accumulation of snow in the Poconos and up into northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey. Accumulations were generally a dusting to an inch as expected. I have heard  southwest Connecticut also saw some snowflakes but I can't verify that. The region has a mixture of sun and clouds with temperatures a bit warmer than they were yesterday. Lighter winds generally 2 to 8 miles an hour with a few higher gust; are making the feel like temperature much nicer than the last couple of days. Generally temperatures are still running slightly below average today the lack of wind makes it feel great! The lighter winds are going to lead to another cold night across much of the region. The high pressure is going to be sitting overhead tomorrow providing another tranquil day.

On the IR satellite We can see that little disturbance moving across the northern plains heading into the Midwest. This is going to be our weather maker for Friday as the high pressure slips to the east and  a weak cold front approaches the region. Ahead of the cold front we will see a light southerly wind, which will allow temperatures to warm up a little bit. The actual cold front will slide through later Friday into Saturday. For the vast majority of the region this will bring scattered spotty rain showers. But across northern into northwestern Maine a light accumulation of a dusting to a couple of inches will be possible. The cold front is going to quickly depart allowing high pressure to build in for Saturday night and Sunday. The high pressure looks to remain overhead for Monday into Tuesday morning. During that time Conditions across the region should be quite nice and dry.  For Wednesday an area low pressure will approach along with a disturbance in the southern subtropical stream.  Yesterday I had thought precipitation would remain south of New York State and New England. But now these two interact just enough that along with the Middle Atlantic, rain showers and higher elevation snow showers across New York State and New England are possible, I can't rule out a little accumulating lower elevation snow across parts of northern New York State and northern New England, Unless the timing changes this looks to be out of here for Thanksgiving day.

As I've been saying for the last several days once we get past Thanksgiving, the arctic gates look to open up ushering in much colder air into the eastern half of the United States; as the western ridge builds and true arctic air drops into the Plains and then East Coast. But if you been following me, It won't be a surprise that you'll have to break out the winter coats.

11/18/2025

 A very chilly day!

A look at the surface chart and regional radar

GOES I/R image

Today is breezy but winds aren't as gusty as they were yesterday. Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph with some gust upwards of 20-25 mph. Up over Maine the winds could be a little stronger as they are closer to that upper level low setting over the Canadian Maritimes. The region is quite chilly with temperatures running slightly below average for this time of year. On the surface chart, we can see we have high pressure that's controlling our weather for today. But the surface chart also shows that low pressure system approaching from the west. Along and ahead of the attached warm front we have rain showers and snow showers moving across western and central Pennsylvania.  The wind should be backing off this evening into tonight.

Image credit Penn state e -wall

That area of low pressure that is in the Midwest will continue to move east heading towards the Delmarvia Peninsula. The rain and snow showers will continue to move east today into tomorrow morning. These rain and snow showers should generally stay confined to Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware into southern New Jersey. There could be a little bit of  snow accumulation for those areas up around 2,000' and above. So a dusting to around  an inch of snow is possible for parts of the Poconos and those higher elevations into northwest New Jersey. There is a chance that isolated rain showers out of this reach far southern New York State into New York City and Long Island. 

The rain will be pushing off-shore late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, as high pressure Approaches and moves in. The high pressure will stick around for Thursday Most of Wednesday and Thursday should be tranquil and a bit milder. As we approach Friday we will see low pressure approaching out of the Great Lakes. The attached cold front is going to slide across the region Friday into Saturday. With the cold front we will see scattered rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. During the day on Saturday this cold front is going to slow and end up stalling, as high pressure approaches and builds in behind it, conditions will quickly improve. High pressure will be sticking around for Sunday providing a chilly but fairly nice and tranquil day. The high pressure will be starting to give way and head east on Monday. Then for Monday night and Tuesday, we will see an area of low pressure moving across Canada that's going to drag a cold front across the Northeast, bringing back a chance for rain showers and higher elevation snow showers.

If you read my post on the pattern; You know that I said as we close out November and go into December we're going to be cooling off, As we start to see a significant pattern change. To get there, we have to go through a storm. Monday into Tuesday we look to have an area of low pressures over Texas. This looks to move into the Midwest on Wednesday, likely bringing snow to the Upper Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Then on Thursday the storm should be affecting the eastern United States. The storm could be fairly strong over the Plains. But as it approaches the East Coast it should be quickly weakening. There is a chance for some rain over Pennsylvania especially eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic for Thanksgiving. Right now I think the rest of the region should be dry. Behind this We will start to see much colder air moving into the region. This is still an evolving situation So we'll see if and how the setup changes. I encourage y'all to read the post on the pattern If you wanna see why all this is going to happen.

Drought conditions

With the rain of late Most of the region continue to see improving drought conditions. But across northern Aroostook County in Maine the conditions did  a backslide. The drought monitor released on November 13 showed 8% of the Northeast was in extreme drought, with 12% in Severe drought, 31% in moderate drought and 32% experiencing abnormally dry conditions. This compares to 10%, 13%, 31% and 31% respectively from the week before.

11/17/2025

 Chilly with a few rain, snow showers. Along with some lake effect falling downwind of the lakes

I hope all y'all read the post and the pattern I put up yesterday. It goes into some detail explaining the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. But the post highlights the need for the boys and girls to buckle up their seat belts and prepare for an interesting ride.

Here's a look of the surface chart and radar along with infrared satellite.

The low pressure that went through yesterday is sitting near Maine and heading towards Nova Scotia. We also have high pressure approaching from the west. In between these two features, we have several troughs that are moving across the region. Between the low pressure and the high pressure we do have a fairly tight pressure gradient. This is causing gusty west-northwest winds across the region. Winds over Maine into New Hampshire could gust to 30-45 miles an hour with some higher gust possible. Those further south and west could see winds gust upwards of 35 miles an hour.

There is lingering snow behind the departing system with  generally a dusting to a inch or so is possible across northern New England, this morning into the early afternoon. with the snow lingering in the higher elevations into tomorrow morning. The higher summits of the Adirondacks, Greens into the Whites could see another 4-8 plus inches of snow through tonight. Parts of the Poconos and Catskills could also pick up a dusting to close to an inch. We can also see the wind moving over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is kicking off lake effect snow showers. Most of the areas over New York State into Pennsylvania that are seeing snow could pick up another dusting to an inch or so today. But those under the more persistent and heavier bands could see 3-8 inches of additional accumulation into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow winds will be a bit lighter but they will still be gusty. The lake effect is going to continue through tomorrow morning but as we get closer to noon time into the early afternoon the lake effect should be dwindling and dying out.

For Wednesday and Thursday Temperature temperatures will be turning milder. On the I/R satellite we can see that  disturbance out over the Rockies exiting into the Plains. This will be working our way and move to the south towards the Delmarvia Peninsula for Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. New York state  and new England should remain mostly dry For Wednesday But over  Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic And perhaps for New York City and Long Island there could be a few  rain showers. This will be a fast moving system So rainfall accumulation shouldn't be too high. Temperatures will be moderately supportive for some sleet/snow. But any snow will likely be mixing in with rain. There could be a little  accumulation over the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey into the Poconos and Catskills. The system should be pulling away during early afternoon into mid afternoon, leading to improving conditions.

Thursday we'll see a weak shortwave move through. There could be a few very isolated showers. But the vast majority of us should stay dry. Friday we will be having a system approach with a leading warm front that will lift through the region. Then we will have a trailing cold front move through. For most of us this will be rain But the higher elevations across northern New York State into northern New England could end up with a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow.  The cold front looks to stall close to the Mason Dixon line on Saturday. So  on Saturday other than a chance for a few showers over southern Pennsylvania with a better chance for isolated to scattered showers over Maryland and Delaware. The rest of the region should stay dry. Across the entire region Saturday will be chilly. For Sunday High pressure will be approaching and setting up. Temperatures will remain seasonally chilly. Outside of a chance for a few snow showers up over northern Maine The region should remain dry for Sunday. The high pressure looks to stay overhead for Monday providing chilly but tranquil conditions across the region.

The pattern

 A look at the pattern as we close out November and going through December.

November here in the eastern half of the United States started out very chilly, While at the same time it started out very warm out west. In the winter outlook I said winter would likely start early this year, So far  that has certainly been the case as we have been dealing with abnormally cold temperatures and many of us have seen snow start earlier this year than the last several years.

Let's take a look at the current pattern signals.

Global sea surface temperatures

Image credit tropical tidbits

The El Nino Southern Oscillation

The latest SST observation indicate that we're definitely in a weak La Nina in nino regions 3 and 3.4

The Quasi Biannual Oscillation. 

I've been talking about the QBO for the last several weeks and how it being negative is a strong indicator for a cold pattern. 

The Madden Julian Oscillation

The pattern that we're going to be dealing with over this winter The MJO is going to be an important factor when it comes to short-term variability. The MJO is also most likely going to be the main driver of our winter pattern.

The MJO is currently in phase 6 and looks to remain there for a few more days. After that it will move into phase 7 closer to the end of the month. This is going to have implications on the pattern moving forward.

The current Sudden  Stratospheric Warming event. 

This SSW looks to peak over the North Pole around the 28th to  November 30/ December 1 timeframe. This would mean the stretching of the polar vortex could reach the Northeast and Middle Atlantic five to maybe seven days after that. 

So the last couple days of November into the 1st couple days of December could end up being  average to slightly cooler than average. But after that some real cold is going to work into our region. 

As I've been saying, we're in a strong negative (easterly) QBO, This current configuration means there is a good chance for several disruptions of the polar vortex as we move into at least the 1st half of this winter.

But with the negative PNA, this would mean we have a shot at some warming for the end of November at least in the Middle Atlantic. Also, with the MJO moving into phase 7 we could end up seeing those warmer temperatures that are currently in the central part of the country to at least try to move east. I know I have been talking about November ending on a cold note. But the MJO is saying hold your horses and let's not get too premature!

Based on the current teleconnection signals I think we are going to see some warmth as we head towards Thanksgiving and a little bit past that. This would be good news for those who are traveling to see family during Thanksgiving. Then the last 2 or 3 days of November into at least the 1st half of December, We're likely to see a significant pattern change start!

Looking at the graphics from NOAA. They are seeing the same thing and confirming the cold that's on the way as we head into December 

The general December pattern is going to be based on the combined effects of the current La Nina, the Madden Julian Oscillation and the potential for that November sudden stratospheric warming event. 

Based on what looks to be happening once we get past the first 2 to 4 days of December The region should plunge into very cold temperatures. That should be averaging well below average for December. The December pattern is still looking to stay very active. Similar to what we've been seeing. But with the cold air in place and looking to have quite a bit of staying power, means at least for the month of December it will most likely be very snowy. We're likely going to have our first major regional storm before Christmas. Will this mean we're going to have a White Christmas? While we will have to see, I do think the odds of that happening for the vast majority of us is looking fairly good. But I guess time will tell!

As I said in the winter outlook, I think the same general pattern is going to extend into January. based on everything setting up during December into at least the middle of January. I think the region is going to be very surprised with the amount of snow we end up with during that time. The pattern I talked about in the winter outlook, looks to be the one that's evolving and I think snow lovers are going to be happy overall with the way things are gonna go.

 

11/14/2025

 Tranquil today but cold air is on the way!

Surface chart and latest radar

Satellite

The long wave trough continues to move through along with continued shortwave troughs moving across the region. Winds during the day are generally gonna be out of the northwest 5-15 miles an hour and occasionally some higher gust. Today is going to be milder and feature a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for a few isolated rain showers or higher elevational snow showers/flurries. The wind direction means there will be a chance for some limited lake effect snow/rain showers downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario, but any accumulations should be extremely light. All in all not a bad day for this time of year. All this precipitation should be basically ending by this evening. But winds will start increasing tonight and over the overnight.

For tomorrow morning winds will continue to increase as that low pressure that's sitting up over the Canadian maritimes retrogrades back toward the west, There will also be some high pressure approaching and moving in. Conditions during the day on Saturday should be mainly dry with seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures. But the pressure gradient will be tightening between the Low and high pressure areas, keeping winds gusty.

Saturday evening into Sunday we will be watching a storm system currently exiting the northern Rockies into the plains, approach from the northwest. A warm front will be lifting into and through the region later Saturday into Sunday. Winds will become southwesterly and will be breezy, allowing temperatures to turn even milder, with temperatures  being above average for this time of year. With the front there could be some isolated rain and a chance for a few higher elevation snow flurries/showers. There could be a few thunderstorms especially over parts of Pennsylvania. The trailing cold front will be approaching early Sunday morning and moving through on Sunday. Over Pennsylvania and New York State the rain showers should turn over to some low elevation on and off snow showers and higher elevational sleet ice mix and some snow during Sunday with more in the way of snow showers developing over the higher elevations as time goes on. The rain and some ice will be working into western New England By Sunday evening. Then move  into eastern New England Sunday night into the overnight. I'm not expecting much ice, but there will be enough of it that driving could be tricky in spots.  As the cold front continues to advance into the region. Temperatures are going to plummet during the day. All rain will likely be moving into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and for southern New England  later Saturday evening going into Sunday morning, Then things should start to generally to clear up. Sunday morning Maine and New Hampshire will see snow change over to rain south to north. The rain and snow over Maine should start to lighten up during the afternoon on Sunday. Across northern New York State into Vermont and northern Massachusetts including the Berkshires a general 1-4 inches is likely. The Poconos and Catskills could see limited light accumulations. The Adirondacks, Greens and Whites will have the best chance of seeing the most accumulations with a general 3-8 inches. With the higher peaks in the mountains seeing upwards of around 12 inches.   Northern Maine into northern New Hampshire Look to see a general 3-6, with central Maine into central New Hampshire Seeing a general 1-3 inches. The areas that see mainly rain are gonna see rain totals of around 1⁄4 of a inch to 1/2 of an inch.

Off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake snow/rain will be developing later in the day becoming stronger on Sunday night, becoming all snow. Areas to be mainly impacted Will be across northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State and East of lake Ontario across northern New York State. The lake effect bands will continue into Monday Those who sit under the heavier and more persistent lake snow bands will likely end up with several inches of snow once again.

Temperatures are going to be very chilly for this time of year. Monday a trough be working through Keeping things a bit unsettled Rain showers and snow higher elevation snow showers. High pressure looks to move in for Tuesday and looks to last through Thursday keeping the weather fairly tranquil but cool. There could be a few lingering snow rain showers Tuesday morning But then things should dry out for a few days.  On Friday a warm front will lift into the region allowing temperatures to warm up But this is going to be followed by yet another cold front later Friday and Saturday.

I've been talking about the polar vortex possibly weakening and moving into the lower latitudes as we get further into November Heading into December. It is looking increasingly likely this is going to happen and it looks like The brunt of the cold could move in over the eastern half of the United States. This would allow for a very cold end of November and 1st half of December with the pattern looking to remain active it could become quite snowy during the 1st part of December. This would all tie into what I said in the winter outlook.

11/13/2025

 Chilly and unsettled

The pattern is going to remain very active. The unsettled and cool conditions we've experienced the last couple of days will be adjusting as temperatures try to moderate a bit and conditions clear up a little overhead.

Surface chart and radar

The surface chart Shows the shortwave troughs continuing to slide across the region. On the radar we can see the scattered rain and snow showers. along with some lake effect snow showers continuing downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. But while the radar image shows widespread activity, it's more bark than bite. Winds will be increasing a bit today becoming 5-15 miles an hour Out of the northwest with gust of 20-30 miles an hour possible at times. Those higher elevation snow showers won't leave much accumulation But those areas downwind of lake Ontario could pick up 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow by later this afternoon

All of this is being caused by a longwave trough up in southeast Canada that is dropping through our region. As this trough continues to move north and east, our conditions here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic are going to slowly improve. These light rain showers and high elevation snow showers will continue through tonight. Any snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations with limited snow amounts, along with light lake effect  snow showers continuing south and east of the Great Lakes with perhaps 1 to 3 inches of additional snow accumulation possible  by tomorrow morning.M

Tomorrow morning very light isolated rain showers and higher elevation snow showers will continue. But as we approach the afternoon and get into the afternoon conditions will become better with filtered sunshine and conditions drying up, We could still be dealing with pesky rain and snow showers but they should be very widely isolated. 

For Saturday high pressure will be moving in overhead providing tranquil conditions. But all of this will be short lived. The infrared satellite image shows all of these features very well.

We can see that deep trough over the Northeast. But we can also see that disturbance over the Northwest US. This is going to be working our way and approach for late Saturday and move through Sunday into Monday. For Saturday evening/night we will see a warm front approach and move into the region. With the warm front we will see  rain showers move through. That could see rainfall rates moderate at times. There could be some sleet ice mix along with some Snow showers over parts of New York State Into northern New England especially in the higher elevations. During the day on Sunday the cold front will move through, bringing additional rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Behind the front We are going to see yet again a series of shortwave troughs move through. These are going to allow winds to increase, starting later Sunday afternoon into Monday, winds could gust as high as 25-35 mph. With these troughs coming through We will see rain showers and high elevation snow showers continue, along with lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario redeveloping with accumulations in the typical areas downwind likely. These little short waves will continue moving through on Tuesday keeping things unsettled, Along with some lake effect snow/rain continuing downwind of the Great Lakes. Then on Wednesday we will  be dealing with a fast moving weak moisture starve cold front that's gonna come through Bringing the chance for a few rain showers or higher elevation snow showers. At the same time high pressure is going to be building in overhead, But the pattern is going to remain active and on Thursday another system will be approaching the Great Lakes with a leading warm front lifting into our region. This generally unsettled pattern is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

11/12/2025

  This very active Weather pattern continues.

We have a warm front advancing into the region. This will produce winds out of the south and west That will help to warm us up turning any of the scattered snow showers over to rain showers this afternoon into tonight. Generally winds will be out of the south and west at 5-15 miles an hour with some gust approaching 25 miles an hour. Tonight won't be as cold as it was last night, But winds will remain a bit breezy.

 Last night there was an aurora borealis (northern lights) over the region. It was way too cloudy to see it, at least at my house. Tonight there will be another opportunity to see the northern lights. But again it's all going to depend on cloud cover.

The surface and radar chart

The highest elevations across the region could pick up a dusting to maybe an inch. Those downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie and under the most persistent bands could pick up another 2-4 inches of snow, Before a changeover to rain as the warm front moves through and temperatures warming.

On the infrared satellite we can see the main trough Is sitting off the coast, with a few shortwave troughs approaching and moving over the region. These short waves are going to continue to move through for today into tomorrow. Keeping things generally unsettled but most of us will just have a slight chance for an isolated rain/snow shower or two. Through tomorrow The higher elevations above 2,000 feet will have a chance to pick up another 2 to maybe as much as 5 inches of snow, But for the lower elevations and valleys it will be just a nuisance.  For those downwind of the Great Lakes, y'all will continue to see the chance for light lake effect snow showers producing light general accumulations of 1-3 inches, But those under the most persistent and heaviest of the bands will have a chance to pick up 3-8 " of lake snow by Thursday night.

Friday another trough will swing through the region, Producing a chance For a few rain and snow showers. Then as we get into the day on Friday high pressure will be approaching and setting up shop for Saturday. Friday afternoon and through Saturday the region should be generally dry and fairly tranquil. But we will be watching another system approaching from the west, later Saturday into Sunday a warm front will be lifting into the region, Bringing a chance for rain showers for many of us and snow showers in the highest elevations. One thing we will have to be watching out for is a possibility for a sleet/ice mix across the higher elevations of New York State into northern and central New England. Northern areas would see any mix of rain change over to some snow showers as the cold front moves through later in the day into Sunday night. Monday we will see shortwaves trying to move through and high pressure trying to set up. As these two features battle it out We could see a few isolated rain snow showers. Tuesday another system will be approaching with a warm front lifting into the region bringing the chance for rain/mix/snow to the region. Then on Wednesday the trailing cold front will slowly advance across the region bringing waves of rain showers in the lower elevations and chances for bouts of snow showers in higher elevations. We will also have to be on the lookout for the chance for some mixed precipitation in parts of the region.

I've had a few comments That people were caught off guard by the snow and or amount of it. I know I've been talking about the snow and possibilities of accumulations for several days before the event. I think from what I've seen in reports and everything. The areas I thought would see  accumulating snow, ended up seeing those accumulations. So I'm not really sure where these areas were located and how they didn't know it was coming!

The pattern and a little of this and that!

 

We're in the middle of November and the winter pattern is quickly evolving!

Courtesy tropical tidbits

We're in the process of a sudden stratospheric warming developing. This is when stratosphere temperatures near and over the North Pole quickly warm. This often leads to a weakening and disruption in the polar vortex  Which can send cold air down into the lower latitudes.

Image credit global weather systems.

This is an unusually early warning and strongly suggest we could see the polar vortex weakening or breaking down. Leading to a good chance for a lot of cold  later this month into December.

The data shows a very impressive Stratospheric warming event for this early in the season. If this proves out the eastern US could get quite cold for the end of November into the first part of December. As the polar vortex would be displaced And we could see some cross polar flow of air coming in from Siberia directed into the United States.

In addition to this the setup as we move through the end of November and into December looks to support a lot of Greenland blocking.

This does supports the ideas I raised in the winter outlook where I said end of November and a good part of December could be quite cold and active. With a good shot at early winter activity. To add to that, as we get heading into thanksgiving and over thanksgiving here in the Northeast  we could be dealing with a couple of storms. With the cold air that looks to be in place it could get quite snowy. We have a couple of weeks to see how all this trends and evolves So we'll see!

The drought conditions in the Northeast

I didn't post on the drought last week So I wanted to correct that and post this now.

With all the rain last week several areas across Pennsylvania New York State into New England Saw improvement.  But we do see a few small areas in Maryland, Delaware into southern New Jersey as well as far northeast Maine did sea drought conditions expand a bit.

The drought monitor released on Thursday the 6th, showed 10% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 13% in severe drought, 31% in moderate drought, with 31% experiencing abnormally dry conditions. Compared to 11%, 23%, 31% and 28% the week before.

11/11/2025

 Sure feels like winter

I think the forecast generally verified fairly well!

Across far northern New York state And across northern Vermont New Hampshire into Maine picked up a general 2-6 " of snow, With some areas picking up close to 9" of snow. The lower elevations also picked up couple of inches. From what I can see Berkshire and Litchfield counties in Massachusetts picked up a dusting to near an inch.

Today is cold With Interior temperatures running in The 20°s into 30°s with temperatures even along the coast running in the low 40°s. These north westerly winds are running 10 to near 30 miles an hour, with some gusts as high as 35 mph. Making for very cold feel like temperatures.

Looking at the radar map, we can see the northwest wind orientation means Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are getting an upper lake connection with Lake Huron and Georgian bay. This is enhancing the lake effect snow bands and allowed them to extend well away from the lakes Into northwest Pennsylvania and across New York State even down into the Poconos and Catskills. The air is cold enough that even Lake Champlain is producing some lake effect snow.  

For today, The lake effect is going to continue. With areas closer to the lake Who have already picked up 1-6 inches of snow to pick up another 1-6+ inches of snow During the rest of the day into tonight. For the hills South of buffalo another 1-4 " of snow coming off lake Erie is possible today. Elsewhere For the Adirondacks Greens and Whites these areas could see another 2-4 " of snow today. With much of the rest of New York state And northern into central New England seeing another dusting to an inch of snow.

Tomorrow another system will move through. With the chilly temperatures the area seeing snow today could pick up another dusting to an inch or so of snow With the Adirondacks and Whites and Greens seeing perhaps 2-4 inches of additional snow. With those in the lake snow belts seeing an additional few inches of snow as well. Isolated rain showers and possibly a few higher elevation snow showers will be possible for the rest of the region.

Thursday We will once again see some troughs move through but temperatures will be warming so that should shut off the lake effect snow coming off the lakes temporarily. Northern parts of our region will see a mix of rain showers and snow showers. Then the rest of the region will be dealing with rain showers. The rain showers will become more isolated the further south you go.  The cold air returns for Friday, as a back door cold front moves across New England into New York State. Right now New England Into northern and central New York State look to cool back off with the rest of the region seeing their temperatures moderate as high pressure approaches. The high pressure will be overhead for Saturday. So the vast majority of the region will be cool, but the conditions should be fairly tranquil. On Sunday A warm front will approach and move through. Along the leading edge of this front scattered snow showers will be possible, especially in the higher elevations. We could also see a mixture of sleet/ice over New York State and New England. That could make travel problematic. As temperatures warm this mix should change over to rain showers. For Monday behind the front, conditions will clear but that cold air filtering back in behind the front will bring back lake effect snow on the leeward sides of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. High pressure looks to move back in for Tuesday. The region should be generally dry But there will still be a chance for lingering lake effect downwind of the lakes. Temperatures on Tuesday will remain chilly.