Northeast Blizzard!

 

When I released my winter outlook last fall In it I said many would be surprised by how this winter went. I think this latest storm proves that point!

 

The nor'easter is well off the coast now. But it is still battering New England with a lot of wind and heavy snow.  New jersey into Delaware and New York City across Long Island into southeast New England the official blizzard criteria was met.

On satellite We can see this nor'easter looks more like a hurricane with even an eye like feature. 

We had serious banding setting up over New Jersey Delaware into near Philadelphia. We still have a lot of banding across southeast New England. Looking at the overall dynamics It's looking like we're going to start to see this storm start to pivot to the east When that happens We will see more out of the north This will help dry things up a bit And allow to heavy wet snow to change over to more in the way of a dryer snow. Conditions across southeast New England are going to continue to be bad for the next few hours Before y'all can see some light at the end of the tunnel. 

I think for the most part forecasted amounts ended up being fairly good.  But west west west of Philadelphia snow amounts might have been less than I anticipated but I did have those areas forecasted for lower amount, so I don't know.

The storm is going to continue to move north and east but we have an extremely tight gradient around the storm so the entire region is going to be still dealing with very windy conditions.  Even up here on a Tug Hill where I live winds are still howling, It's enough that some of the horses are little skittish.

Remember take your time when moving the snow if you're shoveling. 

Looking ahead

Tonight is going to get quite cold, with frigid conditions continuing through tomorrow. Winds are still going to be a little gusty tomorrow.

Wednesday and Thursday we're going to be dealing with a fast moving clipper. This will drop down through the Great Lakes dropping south and east across the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday Snow will break out ahead of this across western parts of the region Snow showers will continue to advance Wednesday into early Thursday Snow amount should be fairly on the light side and we are likely see  the initial snow  change over to a bit of rain mix Across Southern New York State as temperatures start to warm. The clipper will bring some gusty winds with it. During the day on Wednesday Lake snows will develop downwind of the Great Lakes. For most of the region This will be a dusting to 1-3 inches. But those that get under the lake effect could end up with 3-6 plus inches

Another area of low pressure is looking to move through the southern part of the region Late Thursday into Friday. This is going to bring another bout of rain mix and snow to the region. On the northern side will likely see Snow changed to a rain mix and then as colder temperatures come in That will change back over to some snow. While southern areas across Pennsylvania into the mid Atlantic Deal with more in the way of a mix of sleet and freezing rain and some snow

Biggest storm in a long time!

 

The storm is still developing and it will start to really rapidly intensify this afternoon.

Model images courtesy of pivotal weather.

As the trough becomes negatively tilted The coastal is gonna be pulled in closer to the Northern middle Atlantic coast. Then start to track north and east just south and east of Long Island and Cape Cod. This will Pass close to the benchmark and will be in the goldilock zone for major north Middle Atlantic and southern New England snow storms.

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Blizzard warnings have expanded.

The Heavier accumulating snow will be approaching Washington DC, Philadelphia and New York City by early this afternoon. I'm moving into eastern Long island and southern new England later this afternoon. Moving into eastern Massachusetts This evening And then approaching and moving into Maine tonight.

The snow will really start to accumulate for the I -95 between DC and New York City late this afternoon into tonight especially  once the sun goes down!

Here is the forecasted snow amounts from the national blend of models.

The accumulation amounts and general impacts I talked about yesterday are still in place If you want to see what those are take a look at yesterday's post.

Some areas are going to underperform while other areas over perform from the forecast this is always the case With these types of storms Which is why I'm always saying general snowfall amounts.

This is going to be a near to historic storm for the northern Middle of Atlantic and into New England. During the height of the storm Road crews are gonna have an almost impossible time trying to keep up. So my advice is to stay home Otherwise you're most likely gonna become stranded on the roads 4 wheel drive or not. Besides the strong winds are gonna be blowing a lot of snow around which will make visibility very low to zero in many cases. With the high winds power outages are going to be likely so be prepared to lose power. The airports are going to be canceling flights, Which is gonna cause major travel disruptions across the country. The magnitude of the storm is gonna mean it's gonna take a few days for things to get back to an assemblance  of normal so keep that in mind.

The purpose of what I do is to keep you informed I don't mean to scare anybody but this storm is gonna be serious. So  listen to updates on your local news channels, stay smart and stay safe!

Behind the departing nor'easter We are gonna see temperatures drop As a cold front comes through, along with light lake effect downwind of the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday.

We're gonna have a clipper midweek with a leading warm front, This is gonna bring Light snow to northern parts of New England and to northern New York State, with light rain/mix showers south of there. Then Wednesday night into Thursday We will see a cold front move into the region Bringing a chance for more in the way of snow and rain showers to the region.

Then we're gonna have another storm possible for the weekend into the 1st of March. Depending how things come together and how this tracks There's a chance this could bring Some widespread Light to moderate snow Much of New York state into northern and central new England with a mix and rain south of those areas. I will get more into this over the next couple days as things start to firm up as far as how things look to go.

Staying unsettled for the foreseeable future

Sorry no post yesterday But I got tied up with a lot of life issues and chores. Yesterday we dealt with that snowstorm. That one is pulling away. This post is gonna cover our next storm system.

The Sunday Monday storm.

This storm is incredibly complex setup with multiple elements That will have to come together just right. A few days ago I was leaning away from this having a huge impact on our region But I've listed the reasons at the time why I thought that But as is the case of everything in weather everything is dynamic. There have been enough subtle changes that I have now changed my mind.

Models courtesy of tropical tidbits

Our storm is already starting to develop.

The trough looks like it's going to become neutral to negatively tilted. So we're gonna have low pressure move off the Carolina Coast and then track north and east where it's going to continue to develop and rapidly intensify right off the coast. This storm is going to be a monster and it will go through bombogenesis. As I've said before bombogenesis is defined as a storm that quickly drops in pressure, This pressure drop is based on latitude, But generally a storm is considered to have bombed  When the pressure drops 24 mb  in 24 hours. This storm is likely to go through  its pressure drop much more than that. So this is going to be an incredibly powerful Nor'easter!

Models courtesy of tropical tidbits

Models courtesy of pivotal weather

The American GFS has been very consistent with this storm saying it was going to be a very strong system. At first it was the outer as far as the track and power of the storm. But over the last few days the other models have moved towards the GFS solution.

Model courtesy tropical tidbits

This morning we have ridging extending through Idaho. This is going to allow the trough to dig in a little bit, Which is going to allow this storm to come north and west much closer to the coast. The overall dynamics are not completely favorable for this to be a huge storm. Everything will have to line up perfectly for this to become the storm everybody thinks it's going to be, Including me! But because of all this There is a bust potential where this could  underperform.

The mountains of West Virginia are likely to take a big hit. For our region the biggest impacts look to be Sunday night through the first half of Monday. With the storm pulling away Monday night into Tuesday. 

Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon we will be dealing with rain and snow showers As we get further into the afternoon and approach the evening snow will become much more steady.

This is definitely looking to be a big coastal snowstorm. The nor'easter is going to bring a lot of wind, coastal flooding and heavy deep snow to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England. While it will graze Northern New England, Northern New York State into center and western New York State.

Here is where my thinking is as far as possible snowfall accumulation amounts. Based on the overall dynamics this is about as good as I can do!

4 to 10 inches across southeast New York State up into the New York State Capital District. 5-10 inches will also be possible across western Massachusetts up into  southern Vermont. North of the New York state capital district South of the Adirondacks into the western mohawk valley 3-6 "South of the Adirondacks into the western mohawk valley 3-6 inches,  1 to 3 inches will be possible north and west of these areas this would include the Southern half of New York state Northern Pennsylvania And across western Pennsylvania and western New York State. Southwest Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh could be on the outside edge of everything so a dusting to maybe an inch or two will be possible. The same for  northern parts of New York State and northern New England Seeing snow showers with a dusting to an inch or so.

For coastal New Jersey, New York City and long island into southern Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts This could be the biggest storm so far for the season.

For the lower Hudson Valley and New York City 12 to 16 inches, same is likely for  the western half Of Long Island and across central Massachusetts, 6-12 inches for southeast New Hampshire and along the coast into southern Maine, 3-8 inches A little further inland across central Maine back through central New Hampshire. For eastern Long Island 12-20+ inches. The same 12-16 inch snow amount range looks to be across southern and  eastern half of Connecticut , northeast Rhode Island and the eastern half of Massachusetts west of Boston.. Right now it's looking like the jackpot zone  could be from Gloucester through Boston over southeast Massachusetts into the rest of Rhode Island where 14-24+ inches of snow is looking likely. Most of New Jersey away from the coast into southeast Pennsylvania is looking like 10-16 inches. For the coast of New Jersey from cape may all the way up across Long Island 12-20+ inches of snow.  For the Cape and off-shore islands It's looking like 12-20 inches of snow is possible. 

Philadelphia and Baltimore could see 5-10 inches The same for the areas to the north of Washington DC Washington DC itself good see. 3-7 inches. If the storm does as it's supposed to these areas could end up seeing more than this.

Wind gust could  be 55 mph to 70+ miles an hour along the southeast coast Including the Cape and off-shore islands, The coast of Boston could also see these kind of wind gust. Further inland For western Massachusetts and western Connecticut Including the coastal areas of long island sound and along the coast of New Jersey down into the Delmarvia wind gust of 40-60 miles an hour And then across eastern In Massachusetts Winds gusting around  30 to 40 miles an hour. The winds are going to cause extensive drifting.

Waves of 2-7 feet will lead to  moderate to severe coastal flooding and Beach erosion.

For parts of southeast Massachusetts down across Long Island Into the coast of New Jersey We could be talking about a full scale blizzard. A blizzard is defined as, falling or blowing snow with winds of at least 35 mph; with visibility reduced to 1⁄4 mile or less for 3 hours.

Here's a look at the watches and warnings courtesy of pivotal weather

Currently Blizzard warnings are up for Coastal Delaware coastal New Jersey and Long Island. I do expect National Weather Service Boston to issue blizzard warnings across south east Massachusetts including the Cape and offshore islands. There is a chance these blizzard warnings could extend further away from the coast

Remember a subtle Subtle shift of 50-80 miles west of east can cause a huge difference.

At the height of the storm there could be snow rates of 1-3 maybe 4 inches per hour, Add in the winds and driving will be near impossible; so my advice is to stay home. Be prepared for power outages.

Never trust a warm frontal overrunning event!

 Yesterday's forecast ended up busting. This is because the warm air made it much quicker pushing north then I thought it would. Like the title says never trust a warm front!

The chart shows high pressure sitting up over Maine into Southeast Canada with a stationary front sitting to our south.

Closer to that frontal boundary There will be more in the way of clouds and just general scattered showers.

The radar and infrared satellite show this very nicely. Today we're going to see the stationary front become a warm front as it starts to move north.As that happens Somebody's showers will move north with it.

For tomorrow into Saturday

We will have low pressure riding along the warm front has it moves north. This is going to bring a winterly mess of rain, sleet, some ice and snow. This storm will have a lot more moisture to work with than the Wednesday event.

This looks to be all primarily all rain Across Pennsylvania back into the northern Middle Atlantic. The dividing line between the mostly rain and mix and snow looks to be Through center New York State and points southwest and Northwest Whereas north east and east of there will likely say stay more in the way of snow and or mix The same across new England Where North of the pike We'll see more in the way of  snow and  South of the pike or see more mix and rain.

1-4 inches of snow and mix across the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District of New  York State. 2-5 inches is possible In the saint Lawrence valley,  4-6 inches of snow east of lake Ontario And west of the Adirondacks. 6-12 inches of snow higher amounts possible in the Adirondacks. South of the mohawk valley Into the eastern part of the New York State southern tier Including New York City and Long Island A coating to 1 inch.

Across most of Vermont It's looking like a general 4-8 inches. With the Champlain Valley and closer to Canada seeing 2-5 inches. The Greens could see 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible.  4-6 inches is possible for southern New Hampshire into western and southwest Maine. Central Maine will likely see 1-4 inches of snow With far northern and north east main seeing a dusting to an inch, Northern Massachusetts  4 to 6 inches. 2-4 inches of snow is likely across Southern Massachusetts, northern Connecticut. The rest southern Connecticut, Rhode Island out over the Cape will likely be mostly a rain event, but there could be  a coating to 2 inches of snow mix.

Remember the more sleet you see the less snow you will get.

Snow Will likely fall first across parts of New York State and New England then change to a mix and or rain and then possibly as cold air swinging back in behind the system turn back to some snow.

As with the Wednesday event this forecast has a high bust potential. As we'll still be dealing with the same general conditions of a warm front advancing through the region.

This is going to be a Friday into Friday night event. With things winding down Saturday morning

The Sunday into Monday event

The storm that hit you to California yesterday Is now moving over the Southern Plains.

As I said the other day we're going to have multiple pc of energy that will have to come together just right. It's going to come down to the timing of all these pieces of energy phasing together. 

This will likely move off the Carolina coast Then from here it could either try to come up the coast or head north and east generally out to sea. The GFS currently Is thinking it will be the former and is much more robust with the storm. .Where as the EURO is thinking the latter and is not as bullish on a big storm. 

GFS

EURO

The reasons for these variations Has to do with how each model The timing Of all these pc of energy and when they're gonna end up phasing. The GFS  phases much closer to the coast. The EURO has this phasing further away from the coast. The Canadian model is somewhere in between.

Why I think the GFS is wrong!

On the sea surface temperature chart. We can see that temperature gradient Off the mid Atlantic coast Extending south and east of New England. Storms like to try to follow a temperature gradient if they can. We're also gonna have a noodle inverted trough Sitting over Southern New York State into New England. This will also likely cause trouble for this storm trying to come too far north. Not saying this Can't come closer to the coast I'm just laying out some of the reasons why it would make it more difficult.

The storm is going to achieve bombogenesis (Rapidly intensify) But I think that's gonna be further south and east of the coast limiting its impacts in our region and just brush the Coast. There will likely be some wind and wave issues for parts of the northern middle Atlantic coast into southern new England.

Right now, this will likely be a rain over to a mix event for the I-95 corridor. Higher impacts will be from the Cape down through coastal areas down into the Delmarvia and Virginia.

No change in my thinking for today!

 

The surface chart shows the warm front advancing from the south. This is pushing into The colder air being supplied by the area of high pressure to the north.  No real changes in what I was saying yesterday for today's disturbance that's rolling through. So if you wanna see the snow amounts and everything that I talked about you can just click on yesterday's post. The surface chart also shows That upper level low moving into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. This is going to slowly move our way and have an impact on us for Friday.

Tomorrow should be a quieter day But there's still a chance for a few lingering snow/rain showers. Here are my thoughts for Friday into Saturday.

For Friday we're going to have a warm front once again lifting into the region. Where is the front rain will be advancing across Pennsylvania and the northern middle Atlantic But there could be an inch or two of snow accumulation for places like the Poconos and northwest New Jersey Before a changeover to rain. The poconos, Catskills, Northwest New Jersey and areas north and west of New York City could see a bit of a mix of sleet and freezing rain. We're going to have a secondary low develop That could enhance the precipitation amounts across these areas a little bit. For New York City and Long Island, the Connecticut shoreline into southern Rhode Island a dusting to an inch will be possible, 1-3 inches will be possible across southern Connecticut into northern Rhode Island.  2-4 inches possible over northern Connecticut into southern Massachusetts.   Across New York State and Northern and central New England (North of the Massachusetts turnpike)  As well as western and southern Maine. It looks like a widespread 2-6 inches. With the higher elevations seeing  4-8  inches with locally higher amounts  possible.

For Sunday night into Monday

This is going to be a very complex setup As we will be juggling three pieces of energy one  will be Over the northern Plains approaching the Great Lakes. A second piece will be dropping out of Southwestern Canada. And another one will be moving in over California. All of these have to interact perfectly To get a big storm For the Middle Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. While there is a possibility of everything coming together When I look at the progressive nature of the pattern and the overall setup I think that odds are stacked against a major snowstorm. We will have a storm developing off the Carolina coast It could come up the coast. But the greater likelihood is it will kind of go out to sea. Brushing part of our region. Much of New York State, western Pennsylvania, northern and central New England will likely get some snow out of this.  Eastern Pennsylvania into the northern middle Atlantic Long island in New York City and southern Connecticut seeing a mix and maybe some snow That will all change over to rain. Temperatures will be coolish and winds will be gusty.

Another disturbance for Wednesday.

 

We are going to have a front stall. it's going to be sitting somewhere over central or southern New York state and across Massachusetts. North of the frontal boundary we will have colder temperatures with warmer temperatures south of the boundary. An area of low pressure will move along the stalled front This will bring a chance for some rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow. As well as a chance for thunderstorms across southern parts of the region. Exactly where that rain snow line sets up Is a bit foggy right now.

Right now it looks like it should be all snow north the I -90 corridor and the Mohawk Valley. For northern New York closer to the Saint Lawrence valley a general  D-3 inches of snow is possible. A little south of there  general accumulations should be a general 3-6 inches of snow (This will be especially true for the Adirondacks). Then along and over the I-90 corridor into the Capital District of New York y'all will likely see snow change to mix and some ice. General accumulations of snow and ice look to be 1 to maybe 3 inches. Then heading into southern New York State and south of the Capital District of New York y'all will probably see ice change over to rain. With a dusting to around an inch of accumulation

Across Northern Vermont northern New Hampshire into Maine a general dusting to 2 inches of snow. For southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire , western and central-northern Massachusetts (north of the Pike) will likely see 2-5 inches of snow. for eastern and  southern Massachusetts 1-3 inches. South of there heading into northern Connecticut into southeast Massachusetts including the Cape seeing a dusting to an inch or so.

Northern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey will have a better chance of more in the way of steady rain, Where the Poconos into northwest New Jersey having a chance for a bit of mix. Southern Pennsylvania into the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic rain showers should be more scattered.

There is a chance for some thunderstorms across Western Pennsylvania north of Pittsburgh into southwest New York state. There is a chance a few of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side. The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over this area.

Any shift in the track north or south Will have big impacts and will change the local forecast for those areas impacted.

Thursday should be primarily a quiet day

For friday into Saturday we have the potential for a more in the way of an impactful storm Near the Great Lakes that looks to transfer it's energy to the northern middle Atlantic coast This in essence will be a miller B. 

A Friday Saturday event is also gonna be very tricky. But here is what COULD happen. We could have several  inches of snow over northern New York State down through the Adirondacks, across most of Vermont and New Hampshire, Southwestern Maine. As well as most of northern Massachusetts. South of there across central New York State and the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District of New York state and downward across far southern Massachusetts Including the Cape and Connecticut there will likely be a mix.

There is also a chance for another coastal storm Sunday into Monday. This one could be a bigger deal. But that will depend on the track.

More on the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the pattern.

 I had a nice romantic dinner for Valentine's Day And then over the rest of the weekend spent a lot of time with family. I hope all y'all had a nice Valentine's Day weekend as well. But we have to get back to talking about the weather.

This week is going to see a lot of ridging move into the eastern US. Today we'll see the warming that we saw over the weekend continue, as The system that brought a bit of snow to the northern Middle Atlantic into southern New England pushes off-shore and high pressure moves in overhead. Both today and tomorrow Temperature will likely be very slightly below average for many of us. Tonight  into tomorrow a very weak disturbance with a trough will move across New York State and New England. As this rolls through late tonight Into Tuesday morning It could produce a few higher elevation  snow showers across New York State and New England. With the lower elevations in these areas likely seeing just rain . But on Tuesday high pressure will be building in. Tuesday will also see a warm front approach from the south That will allow temperatures become a bit warmer. Overall as  Tuesday goes on we should see fairly tranquil conditions.

Then on Wednesday we're going to see a Colorado low move over the central Great Lakes. This is going to drag a leading  warm front north and east across our region. This will likely begin as rain across Western Pennsylvania heading into New York State, Before changing over to a rain/mix Into central New York And along the I-90 corridor.  But this will likely be primarily rain and maybe some thunderstorms for southern half of New York state Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. Then over New York state we could see snow and or mix. Depending on how far north this can make it Northern New York State into southern  Vermont could end up with several inches of snow. Northern Vermont Vermont and far northern New York State may only see snow showers with little accumulation. Northern parts of Maine could pick up a bit of snow. Then for southern New Hampshire and southern Maine snow showers would be possible. Any snow should be over by Thursday.

Thursday we will be in between systems and it should be fairly tranquil.

Friday we're gonna see strong low pressure move in over the Great Lakes. The winds are likely going to be strong and very gusty In the Great Lakes and most likely extend into western parts of our region; with winds becoming less the further east you are.

For later friday morning into Saturday we are gonna see primary low pressure in the Ohio valley Tracking east and north. This stronger area of low pressure looks to bring the region  rain and mix of sleet and possibly freezing rain with northern New York State and northern and central New England seeing possibly some snow. This area of low pressure looks like it could transfer  off the Middle Atlantic coast. From here it could track out to sea or it could move north and east of New England. Where it could bring impacts as far north as Maine. But that will all depend on the exact track. There is a chance At inland low could be another further west Up over the central or even northern lakes If that's the case We would see no coastal and this would end up being a primary rain event for the region. As always it's about timing and track.

There is likely going to be another Disturbance that could impact at least parts of our region for  Sunday into Monday. As I said in the post the pattern is gonna be volatile, With variations in temperature across the entire region. This time of year  timing and track become very important. Things have to come together almost Perfectly to end up with big time snow events in our region.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The ENSO has three phases El Nino, La Nina And Neutral

The ENSO is considered neutral When the sea surface temperatures (SST s) in the central eastern equatorial pacific + plus or - 0.5° C of the long-term average. Above +0.5 ° C. is considered El Nino and below -0.5 ° C. is considered La Nina.

The part of the equatorial pacific that is monitored for the ENSO Is broken into 4 regions.

The last post I did on the ENSO; I saId that we were in a neutral phase. That is still the case. When I did the math yesterday region 1+2 was  +0.8 ° C. ,Region 3 was +0.1° C. Region 3.4 was -0.2  ° C. And Region 4 was +0.2° C.

When the ENSO is in neutral It means the pacific ocean isn't strongly warmer or cooler than average. We see the subtropical jet start to become active. And that has certainly been the case over the last couple of weeks. 

Based on how the pattern has been. The general snow pack and the Great Lakes being so cold. As well as how the ENSO looks To evolve over the next few months.

When we're in  an ENSO neutral during Spring.  the Central Planes into the Northeast tend to be cooler than average. So as I have been saying for March I think to northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic and most likely back into the Great Lakes is going to be generally below average when it comes to temperatures. During April the warmer temperatures in the Southeast will likely push into Pennsylvania and in northern Middle Atlantic allowing for slightly warmer average temperatures there. North of there temperatures will likely still be at least slightly below average. For May temperature should start to be warming in New York State But northeast New York State into a large part of New England could be stubborn and still trend to be a bit cool.

Once we get into official El Nino territory the subtropical jet becomes much more active.

With the subtropical jet becoming so much more active. The southern US and southeastern US tend to see above average amounts of moisture and precipitation enter the pattern.

Typically during El Nino the Great lakes and Middle Atlantic into the southern part of the Northeast is dryer than average. With the rest of the Northeast seeing generally average precipitation amounts.

All the indicators are pointing towards how the El Nino that looks to be developing will likely end up being moderate to possibly strong by the time we get into summer 2026.

El Nino and hurricanes

I want to reiterate what I said before about El Nino and hurricane activity.

El nino typically increases wind shear and trade winds over the Caribbean and out into the main development region of the Atlantic. This makes the atmosphere more stable and makes it harder for hurricanes to form and develop in the Atlantic basin. But El Nino brings about conditions that increase the chances for hurricanes in the Pacific. So the pacific could end up being quite active this Summer and Fall. While hopefully the Atlantic basin is less active.

Climatically the peek of hurricane season is in September  if the El Nino is definitely in control of the pattern by that time. It would hopefully cut down on the number of tropical systems that develop. But remember less likely doesn't mean no tropical cyclones. Even seasons that had extraordinary low amounts of tropical cyclones developed during the season have  seen major hurricanes and some of these did end up having major impacts. Also with that in mind even tropical storms can have major flooding impacts.  As they say it only takes  one.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation.

The NAO Is looking to become very positive As we move forward to February heading into early March. That would allow for no blocking setting up upstream Keeping the pattern quite progressive. It could also mean that things might become slightly quieter And it would help with the general warming conditions moving forward.

A positive NAO

The MJO is currently in phase 2.

During this time of year when the MJO is in phases 8,1,2 and 3 they are considered cooler phases Then when the MJO moves into phases 4,5,6 into 7 they are considered generally warmer phases. But like everything in meteorology It all deals with nuance.

When the track line Is within the center circle The MJO was considered very weak Sometimes this is called the circle of death. Because the MJO is exerting little influence on the global pattern. Once the MJO gets out of the center circle; we have to consider how far away from the center circle it is. this is referred to as amplitude. The further away it is from the center circle the higher its amplitude. So the further the line is from the circle of death the stronger the MJO phase is considered, meaning it has more impact.

As I said the MJO currently is in phase 2. Then it will move into phase 3. Then it will quickly move through phases 4,5 and 6. As I've said before, these phases are considered warm phases. When we look at the CFS diagram. We can see the line is just barely outside the center circle of death during phase 4 and phase 5. So this is a very low amplitude; meaning the MJO is still fairly weak. Once it gets into phase 6 it gains a lot of amplitude as the MJO starts exerting a lot of influence.  Looking at the ECMWF. We can see it does end up moving into phase 3 then into phase 4 before quickly going inside the center circle of death. Then it comes back out  just before the middle of March and moves into phase 6. And has a lot of amplitude once it gets into phase 6 just like the CFS. This is signifying a quieter pattern and also slightly below average temperatures to slightly above average temperatures moving through February into March. And then once we get approaching the middle of March we could see much more in the way of warming. But I still expect we will see more cold as we move through the rest of March into April.

Happy Valentine's Day!

 

I wasn't going to post today. But there have been a few changes in how the system looks to interact. So here's a quick post!

Well our Valentine's Day is certainly warmer than it was yesterday I hope all y'all have a great and wonderful Valentine's Day!

The Sunday evening into Monday system is looking to mainly stay to our south. But there are indications That this may try to come a little further north than I was originally anticipating. 

I had thought that the northern and southern jets would stay far enough apart that there would be no phase But now there's a slight variation in the northern jet Energy track and timing It looks to get another further south Where it has a chance to do a little  interaction and maybe allow for a partial phase. Both of the major global models are showing this. When looking at the models Y'all can see the energy in the southern sub tropical jet and Y'all can see that bit of energy around the Pacific Northwest into south west Canada. As both of these work their way east; the portion of the energy in the northern jet turns a but south as it approaches the Great Lakes. Allowing it to get closer to the southern piece of energy. As a result the southern energy extends the precipitation shield northward just a little bit. As is always the case everything always comes down to track and timing.

GFS Courtesy tropical tidbits 

ECMWF Courtesy tropical tidbits

GFS Courtesy of tropical tidbits

ECMWF Courtesy tropical tidbits

A widespread rain mix maybe a bit of snow Moves in for the second half of Sunday for Maryland, Delaware and to southern New Jersey. Those with the best chance of seeing a mix and or snow would be Northwest And north of DC in the higher elevations. There could be some limited accumulations.

A bit of snow over south central Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania (Philadelphia should see mainly rain but there could be some mix or even snow in there as well) going into northern and central New Jersey possibly Southeast New York state including New York City and Long Island into Connecticut Rhode Island and Massachusetts south for the Massachusetts Turnpike. These areas could see a dusting to perhaps an inch or so.

North of the Massachusetts Turnpike there could be a few snow showers and or flurries. Some of these snow showers could also make it into the capital district of New York State. But little to no accumulation would be expected.

Northern areas could see a few snow showers and or flurries on Monday. But it shouldn't be a really big deal

No changes what I was saying for next week We are going to enter a warming trend seeing above average temperatures.. With the warmer temperatures we will see some snow melt. And there will be a chance for some of the ice on the rivers and streams to start to break up and possibly lead to some ice jam flooding.

Starting on Wednesday the pattern will become unsettled and then a Cutter over the Great Lakes for friday.