tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32375562598120966492024-03-16T17:32:46.513-04:00Wx4castAn educational blog by a female storm chaser / meteorologist, who blogs about the science of meteorology and other weather related subjects.Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.comBlogger268125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-16986951469167920732024-03-16T12:00:00.014-04:002024-03-16T17:32:15.341-04:00Why are winters so warm in the Northeast?<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Some of y’all have been asking why this past winter was
so warm with a lack of blocking and snowfall. I’m sure many of Y’all have the
same question. So here is a post that will try to explain what is going on. I’m
a Meteorologist not a Climatologist. But I do have an understanding of
Climatology, so we will see how well I do! </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I’ve been posting a few writeups dealing with the
changing climate, in things like the spring and hurricane outlooks. This post
will take a look at possible reasons for last winter being so warm and snowless.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">El Nino Southern <a name="_Hlk161328185">Osculation</a> (ENSO)…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIgOHM9wAgxIOSCuDgL5DrZ_G9lGreQTt4PfmRhYPfKY7PwhaeSVgZEyRNxtEEC7Fvh10FBMkK19Y62cI8bKNf0B52yiFcOcPmaN71pL57OR-dnEYHRUtkfMEVpY_cQRBfVR-NBUvRK-lZMFTuKcnHoYOmfeLNFQ3pNs_uvpK-ImNwmMRaFiVMUiPjDlLZ/s1418/rest%20of%20march%200.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="858" data-original-width="1418" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIgOHM9wAgxIOSCuDgL5DrZ_G9lGreQTt4PfmRhYPfKY7PwhaeSVgZEyRNxtEEC7Fvh10FBMkK19Y62cI8bKNf0B52yiFcOcPmaN71pL57OR-dnEYHRUtkfMEVpY_cQRBfVR-NBUvRK-lZMFTuKcnHoYOmfeLNFQ3pNs_uvpK-ImNwmMRaFiVMUiPjDlLZ/s320/rest%20of%20march%200.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7-Qp3OKYZqtpr560cGVbckArEre-Gmf5VDGwE134sT_SItGi59yUmhAuXg1UdyzZupthKPzUmCHgAiYON2SZP4tmo3t6_dp90vwossXOrFbpmWlyrUI9ntOwcXpMjnS6cJHEOM7ODuvdCtBQZTv5MIRclLlL6xF_cD03-60J0gJIx6TA6aLvenmO2ESqL/s1787/rest%20of%20march%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7-Qp3OKYZqtpr560cGVbckArEre-Gmf5VDGwE134sT_SItGi59yUmhAuXg1UdyzZupthKPzUmCHgAiYON2SZP4tmo3t6_dp90vwossXOrFbpmWlyrUI9ntOwcXpMjnS6cJHEOM7ODuvdCtBQZTv5MIRclLlL6xF_cD03-60J0gJIx6TA6aLvenmO2ESqL/s320/rest%20of%20march%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7_WA7L_ep46UrKWQiNNA3CVP8I6JeB7xaAm0kFasXRYLILULrr9yH5QJ8S_KyDxFvcVOHiS9AQHsOD9YCj1QzQfycdw7fMN852s5R8ZwuyZn8HA7TkqpYhmirNOscaIosQcjkFj_nmkyhT0Mh_zx4eZ7Bc-Z6TZGgjWrasRqJMVc__AFlwYyBG8OuIDGX/s786/rest%20of%20march%201b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="662" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7_WA7L_ep46UrKWQiNNA3CVP8I6JeB7xaAm0kFasXRYLILULrr9yH5QJ8S_KyDxFvcVOHiS9AQHsOD9YCj1QzQfycdw7fMN852s5R8ZwuyZn8HA7TkqpYhmirNOscaIosQcjkFj_nmkyhT0Mh_zx4eZ7Bc-Z6TZGgjWrasRqJMVc__AFlwYyBG8OuIDGX/s320/rest%20of%20march%201b.jpg" width="270" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic_a5b_zOhD6O-u1CM7RWy7IKB2L95co9FhJ__3oAZcIJzHpHsQ8QfgAx2mN0ouOakI5bjU2jv1Mwvt3Go-qd-UbijTRek81DP_XdOYfqVyfXUi8LaYp8u4fOOSYk8vR_JrHrMnqVwv3JYmWGnCoXfm3WzkRq6XJs6L36TaDdNgskZVIlfRgXa_xSL8KLz/s1547/rest%20of%20march%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="1547" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic_a5b_zOhD6O-u1CM7RWy7IKB2L95co9FhJ__3oAZcIJzHpHsQ8QfgAx2mN0ouOakI5bjU2jv1Mwvt3Go-qd-UbijTRek81DP_XdOYfqVyfXUi8LaYp8u4fOOSYk8vR_JrHrMnqVwv3JYmWGnCoXfm3WzkRq6XJs6L36TaDdNgskZVIlfRgXa_xSL8KLz/s320/rest%20of%20march%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrwYWvVJzCoa3ji0a2fL5bXk1cFFm_b9srpXNm6mZSlNsW4GcdzqglcJ32K9SUpUK6drgOMefZXlu2QygpyS0VCeJoABlgcXup93O5aUl_SY8Or-5LNRTV74-BKdSw8R-UargiC3veizM3JV85SUCW4oxSXej3GDspp_ZYIYnjH6X3lwmQ4KRgWa2ESC0I/s729/rest%20of%20march%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="729" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrwYWvVJzCoa3ji0a2fL5bXk1cFFm_b9srpXNm6mZSlNsW4GcdzqglcJ32K9SUpUK6drgOMefZXlu2QygpyS0VCeJoABlgcXup93O5aUl_SY8Or-5LNRTV74-BKdSw8R-UargiC3veizM3JV85SUCW4oxSXej3GDspp_ZYIYnjH6X3lwmQ4KRgWa2ESC0I/s320/rest%20of%20march%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0aba2s-VdQhvFggHbPFE-9wUpZJOodi06LACLLOV8mn6WG1SgcAYz38mBx80Uj2JSkDyjK4e59NFoT0azkQlZtoM5IocW52IRye7bOJYtcla3DS5Nmu7DLXEzCIXZS05xMdGv0L7XEKD7hrf9WSxiXrdw7rVUyzbdtbDQjIUEEj16NaEIZJ0hxQ_T96hyphenhyphen/s831/rest%20of%20march%206.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="831" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0aba2s-VdQhvFggHbPFE-9wUpZJOodi06LACLLOV8mn6WG1SgcAYz38mBx80Uj2JSkDyjK4e59NFoT0azkQlZtoM5IocW52IRye7bOJYtcla3DS5Nmu7DLXEzCIXZS05xMdGv0L7XEKD7hrf9WSxiXrdw7rVUyzbdtbDQjIUEEj16NaEIZJ0hxQ_T96hyphenhyphen/s320/rest%20of%20march%206.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">When we look back at Sea Surface Temperatures on the 13th
of February and compare that to now, we can see there have been a lot of
changes in the ENSO region of the equatorial Pacific.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Nino region 1+2 and in Nino region 3 is
starting to cool.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Looking at the
subsurface water temperatures anomalies, we can see there is a lot of cooler
water just below the surface.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jvfGINGi4DJdW9UbmMEOcZdldsOmqmRClHCPs8svwt0pglVTYkETR57dr2YJrOjmrbAU_3nCh5lsJKLvkYMgNKy3pWdgxTHiyy9rRNNWgfBay49fzCRgJxUSaS-3vhDHEpZW_oLfbvlY8s52HWXsxmX1ZhmZrwvT3L6luZcxaoe4Oam1rf9KVxwDJvAV/s1110/rest%20of%20march%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="727" data-original-width="1110" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jvfGINGi4DJdW9UbmMEOcZdldsOmqmRClHCPs8svwt0pglVTYkETR57dr2YJrOjmrbAU_3nCh5lsJKLvkYMgNKy3pWdgxTHiyy9rRNNWgfBay49fzCRgJxUSaS-3vhDHEpZW_oLfbvlY8s52HWXsxmX1ZhmZrwvT3L6luZcxaoe4Oam1rf9KVxwDJvAV/s320/rest%20of%20march%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxPeHYrcraB1aBFQ-pQmwaTh6eeJ-WF3s2fJ5RCRhKj897vvIcvJfg5vXDg_lJ1XCgYAXDwln5QUhzH0GbenkVdBlCdltQ8q-SXrbgYCQQf-GtWBUvSjcjF2r1qxHY8IT56wqk17flKAByyosMgXgv5oa7cWOdloyzwVKL4l2tokHypKDMjPDBVHfMWQ7C/s1084/rest%20of%20march%205.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1084" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxPeHYrcraB1aBFQ-pQmwaTh6eeJ-WF3s2fJ5RCRhKj897vvIcvJfg5vXDg_lJ1XCgYAXDwln5QUhzH0GbenkVdBlCdltQ8q-SXrbgYCQQf-GtWBUvSjcjF2r1qxHY8IT56wqk17flKAByyosMgXgv5oa7cWOdloyzwVKL4l2tokHypKDMjPDBVHfMWQ7C/s320/rest%20of%20march%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">During the last 4 weeks, above-average SSTs have weakened
across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">So, this El Nino is going to flip to La Nina conditions
very quickly.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">During this winter, I received questions or saw
statements, about how the ENSO doesn’t seem to matter, in spite of it being a
El Nino or a La Nina, all we’re seeing is warm snowless winters here in the
Northeast. And those observations have been correct.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Over at least the last 6 years winters have
been quite warm. So, the question, why is that is valid?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I’ve mentioned The Tonga’s Hunga volcanic eruption that
happened in 2022 many times. It released an enormous amount of water vapor into
the atmosphere. The shear amount of water vapor is in part to blame for the
recent warming in the Northern Hemisphere. The water vapor is going to continue
to cause havoc for several more years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the volcanic eruption can’t account for
the last several years of warm winters. So, what else is going on?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">To answer that we have to look at the state of the
Pacific and Atlantic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">We’ve had a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for the last few years.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">We also have warm SSTs north of the ENSO
regions. All of this constitutes mixed signals.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Helping to counter what’s going on inside the ENSO regions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The Atlantic is also very warm. The tropical Atlantic
is experiencing well above average SST. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">During El Nino/La Nina there are characteristics that
are expected, take for example my winter outlook, I based things on the strong
El Nino, the overall pattern did resemble what you would expect for an El Nino.
But activity in the subtropical jet has been slightly out of what you would
expect. Why is that?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4yl4OAz56y1kCfh0wesVKN98oHaKa1S2L8fZMn9ShDy8AXt5RG1sM484wmPHNgnycxIi0q-eWm48pwsJYMvFVH0obD6uOq5nbS_iyrs_JrMTIAPb_fK70aj6nFDrZesntNEttXknV3El2B57Rthr3bk_3E_s6o0ayLzdt2YM66cT7Fx37KrLAdkZGujI/s1261/rest%20of%20march%208.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1261" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4yl4OAz56y1kCfh0wesVKN98oHaKa1S2L8fZMn9ShDy8AXt5RG1sM484wmPHNgnycxIi0q-eWm48pwsJYMvFVH0obD6uOq5nbS_iyrs_JrMTIAPb_fK70aj6nFDrZesntNEttXknV3El2B57Rthr3bk_3E_s6o0ayLzdt2YM66cT7Fx37KrLAdkZGujI/s320/rest%20of%20march%208.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The El Nino hasn’t exerted much influence on the
atmosphere. Based on Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [The ONI is based on SST
departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for
monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO] tropical SSTs, Nino 3.4 showed a
strong El Nino over the Winter. But the Southern Osculation Index (SOI) hasn’t
responded like it should have.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The SOI
has been indicating a weak to moderate El Nino. This disconnect is very important,
as what was going on with the Pacific SST, where the El Nino wasn’t really coupling with the
atmosphere, which threw off the tropical forcing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Based on the data in a paper by Michelle L. L’Heureux
with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), we could see La Nina begin around
mid-May. I won’t get into the research in the paper, but if you want to read
it, here is a link to the paper.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml" target="_blank">A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate.</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The CPC images, do agree with that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEE428S6ZEXjDuEZkALTwYanwsmdpE7a3qv_OzZ21ErgYCg-IIEx_Gyd1-qXQe1TAN7s3oaBJ77B-ohP39N_33zdPd8Fw2pvjduv9mgzmD73aGpeLHJyVr2ZwsUdD0fsSv_SaxvCXZxf7QY0cRAoBhXtM1Ht_FB7955dzBb3couoycUm198mxfSs6DqTxT/s1195/rest%20of%20march%209.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="1195" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEE428S6ZEXjDuEZkALTwYanwsmdpE7a3qv_OzZ21ErgYCg-IIEx_Gyd1-qXQe1TAN7s3oaBJ77B-ohP39N_33zdPd8Fw2pvjduv9mgzmD73aGpeLHJyVr2ZwsUdD0fsSv_SaxvCXZxf7QY0cRAoBhXtM1Ht_FB7955dzBb3couoycUm198mxfSs6DqTxT/s320/rest%20of%20march%209.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Here is my theory…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The Atlantic is the other side of the issue. It is
quite possibly the bigger part of the equation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The super warm SST in the Atlantic is playing
havoc with teleconnections like the Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO). The warm waters are affecting the polar jet stream and promoting
troughing in the west and ridging in the east, this is one reason why the
western CONUS has been experiencing colder winters over the last several years.
The much warmer than usual water in the Atlantic, is most likely having an
impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is
like a conveyor belt, where the warm salty water in the tropical Atlantic flows
north, meets the colder water in the northern Atlantic, which allows the warm
water to cool and become denser and sinks, then this colder air moves south as
deeper currents along the North American Coast. All of this explains the very
warm water in the Gulf of Maine, and along the Middle Atlantic Coast. This
circulating water has a cascading impact around the globe and is a big player
in world climate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirYvddOKDP94H_Zm0EaZfYMAKuX6z2UUuijgOgv_2f5e8MngJO-uZeeIoqmt1i81Wf0NbN1eY54HvWd22IBXUKliFJZ5Px9z3lvQbyU_rFRys_2x8GZdgQHPAXJscNF2h03b9dj9xKfsY2npzp3ET64en9ID5ahwlAS0fh8euAAT-RiAGuM1nSjZ1ElRTE/s1100/Thermohaline_Circulation_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="1100" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirYvddOKDP94H_Zm0EaZfYMAKuX6z2UUuijgOgv_2f5e8MngJO-uZeeIoqmt1i81Wf0NbN1eY54HvWd22IBXUKliFJZ5Px9z3lvQbyU_rFRys_2x8GZdgQHPAXJscNF2h03b9dj9xKfsY2npzp3ET64en9ID5ahwlAS0fh8euAAT-RiAGuM1nSjZ1ElRTE/s320/Thermohaline_Circulation_2.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The AMOC has an effect on the Atlantic Multidecadal <a name="_Hlk161442827">Oscillation</a> as well. The last few winters haven’t had
a lot of high latitude blocking near Greenland. The poleward moisture and heat
transport from the tropics is affecting the NAO and AO. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since blocking most of the time coincides with
negative phases of the NAO and AO. The blocking helps the Northeast experience cold during the winter, and helps improve snowfall across the region. The warming is interfering with the sub
polar low and the subtropical high making both stronger than average. This is
allowing the NAO to stay in a persistent positive phase. When the NAO is positive, the Northeast is much more likely to see a warmer winter. Subsequently the high
latitude blocking is influenced by many oscillations. All of this is influencing
storm tracks and is altering wind patterns. This in turn is affecting seasonal
temperatures in the Northeast. So the pattern becomes slightly out of tune, making things warmer; along with a storm track that makes it much harder for things to phase, which makes having big snowstorms more difficult.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">There is no doubt that the global climate is warming. Since
the 1980’s a large part of the CONUS has been trending warmer. The Northeast is
one of the fastest warming regions, but it’s the Arctic that’s seeing the most
warming. This warming is melting sea ice. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The melted ice flows into the Atlantic, this
fresh water dilutes the saltiness, which impacts the AMOC. Research has shown
that the AMOC is losing stability and is slowing Down. The warming Atlantic
Ocean water has a big hand in making northeast winters milder, much like
drought begets drought, our warming winters feed on themselves. The lack of ice
and snow, ends up reflecting sunlight back to space, so the ground absorbs more
heat, driving temperatures higher. As a result, there are higher odds of a storm
bringing rain instead of snow. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">There are examples in the past, that show this same general
pattern. One of these is the Medieval Warm Period that occurred around 900 A.D.
to the mid 1300’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A.D. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Increased solar activity and a decrease in
volcanic activity, brought about changes in the NAO, which brought about warmer
winters and wetter conditions to Europe and eastern North America. Core samples
show that Nordic Seas became well above average. The very warm water caused a
lot of ice loss in the arctic. As we’re seeing now, this melted ice worked its
way into the Atlantic, the fresh water from the melted ice, eventually cooled
the ocean which resulted in the AMOC Slowing down and then collapsing. So, the
very warm conditions in the late 1300s quickly turn to unprecedented cold
conditions in the early 1400s, only two decades later. We know this through
core samples and tree rings. This was the beginning of the Little Ice Age,
which lasted roughly from the 1400’s to the end of the 1800’s or beginning of
the 1900’s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I’m not saying what’s happening now is going to lead to
an event like the Little Ice Age. I’m just drawing a parallel between what
looks to be going on and a similar event in the past. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means winter here in the Northeast is
going to continue to be a casualty of what’s going on for the foreseeable
future we're still going to get these snowy storms, but very snowy winters are
going to become harder and harder to occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">There is a lot of debate about natural factors causing
all of this VS humankind causing all the warming. But regardless of which side
you take, we’re stuck with the fact that the climate is warming. And this
warming is not only impacting the climate but also the weather. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">IMO a lot of what is going on with the warming has to
do with natural cycles and water vapor. I’ve never said that humankind isn’t
lending a helping hand. There is no doubt that part of the warming climate is
due to human activities. But I think a large part of what is going on is the
ocean/atmosphere system and cycles, many of which we know nothing about. I’ve
posted many blog post on this subject. You can find them in the blog.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">All of this makes longer range forecasting challenging. we're going to have to adapt to the changes that are going on. This is a steep learning curve. We can still use past events to forecast. But we're going to have to <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ligatures: none;">alter</span> the rules and tweak things a bit. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-88428741137378755742024-03-07T14:08:00.005-05:002024-03-07T14:11:04.363-05:00NHC changes for the 2024 hurricane season<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Hurricane Center (NHC), is making some changes to the way it handles tropical
systems. These changes to their products
and services, will be implemented on an experimental basis for the 2024
hurricane season. This stems from the need to better inform the public on the
potential multiple impacts that a tropical cyclone may deliver. The changes
are…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160628966"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(1<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Spanish Text Products<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160629001"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(2 </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Watches and Warnings on Intermediate
Advisories<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160629021"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(3 <span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Extension of Tropical Storm Wind Radius
Forecast<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160629042"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(4</span></a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><a name="_Hlk160629042" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Website Links in Advisories</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(5 </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Forecast Cone with Inland Watches and
Warnings<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160629089"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(6<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><a name="_Hlk160629089" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Rainfall Graphics</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(7<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">New marine forecast for offshore
waters<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Hlk160629109"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(8<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></a><a name="_Hlk160629109" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Change to the Time zone Reference in
the Eastern Pacific</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Spanish
Text Products…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Hurricane Center will expand information provided in Spanish to include:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">All public
advisories.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The tropical
cyclone discussion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The tropical
cyclone update.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Key
messages.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NHC will
be using AI to generate the Spanish-language documents.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Watches
and Warnings on Intermediate Advisories…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NHC said
watches and warnings could now be adjusted more frequently and not during the
set times of 5 A.M., 11 A.M., 5 P.M., and 11 P.M. when the full advisory
packages are typically issued.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This change
will allow for flexibility when issuing tropical storm, hurricane and storm
surge watches and warnings and more current and valid watches and warnings to
be posted more frequently.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Extension
of Tropical Storm Wind</span> </b><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Radius Forecast…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Hurricane Center currently issues tropical storm wind radius forecasts out
three days.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Starting in
2024, those forecasts will extend out five days.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Website
Links in Advisories…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The public
advisory for the 2024 hurricane season will include links that provide
"graphical hazard information."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The links
are "intended to help reduce the length of the Tropical Cyclone Public
Advisory ... and to direct the focus to the most significant and impactful
storm surge and rainfall hazards and areas," the NHC said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Forecast
Cone with Inland Watches and Warnings…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NHC will
be making changes to its cone of uncertainty, adding watches and warnings for
interior areas starting around Aug. 15, 2024. Previously, watches and warnings were
issued only for coastal areas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">With this
experimental product, both coastal and inland watches and warnings will be
shown with the forecast cone to illustrate that storm hazards can extend beyond
the inside of a forecast cone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is an
example of the experimental version of the cone graphic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8lEqJBP51hzlA_XjtbRh_D_NnbcOUolrUw68y1hjDnHeYImVfc_enTBQWLt2UQqXVN7vVuoQF9huRzDctp-354cA66nUwQqcUN2_GG3z9EQIn6deJtTfRHx0w2d8PU3hbaRJcjZHSPqJX0HtirL5_1pgon9ELQrvFhXXcm7Km9Eel6nJwmTZ9Ljd-vmtj/s1046/NHC%20changes%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1046" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8lEqJBP51hzlA_XjtbRh_D_NnbcOUolrUw68y1hjDnHeYImVfc_enTBQWLt2UQqXVN7vVuoQF9huRzDctp-354cA66nUwQqcUN2_GG3z9EQIn6deJtTfRHx0w2d8PU3hbaRJcjZHSPqJX0HtirL5_1pgon9ELQrvFhXXcm7Km9Eel6nJwmTZ9Ljd-vmtj/s320/NHC%20changes%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Hurricane Center warns that since this is an experimental product, it may not
be available at the same time that the current cone of uncertainty graphic is
released but it should appear within 30 minutes of the advisory release.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Rainfall
Graphics…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">An
experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America will be
available in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCidP_Hu3cutlQbBUZzxkwOzh_W2_m7q2YllmzM3q0KLHja9tMjUSnLXcdj8f7bJ0WFcmJlrG59CmxfrOiAkudWQIU8Iv4Z1w82rGtrlSsZTe0EZcgXLHkQ9RV4E6cbCQVXyMSK1G4DLxDu1TgfErDRtx22saKpWIF66DwGLQLfsnHBPL1QSiHqrGBIwZ/s940/NHC%20changes%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="940" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCidP_Hu3cutlQbBUZzxkwOzh_W2_m7q2YllmzM3q0KLHja9tMjUSnLXcdj8f7bJ0WFcmJlrG59CmxfrOiAkudWQIU8Iv4Z1w82rGtrlSsZTe0EZcgXLHkQ9RV4E6cbCQVXyMSK1G4DLxDu1TgfErDRtx22saKpWIF66DwGLQLfsnHBPL1QSiHqrGBIwZ/s320/NHC%20changes%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The graphic
will provide forecast rainfall totals for tropical cyclones or disturbances for
a particular time period.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk160656389"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">New marine forecast for offshore waters…<o:p></o:p></span></b></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This change </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">starts ahead of hurricane season<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The current
offshore waters forecast for the southwest and tropical north Atlantic will be
divided into two forecasts starting March 26, 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The new
offshore waters forecast will consist of:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Offshore
waters forecast for Southwest North Atlantic Ocean: Consists of all the
Atlantic zones currently north of 19N.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Offshore
waters forecast for the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic: Consists of
the remaining zones in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters south of 19N.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxydV4RslMAFalh9PX83glAe9KUTOdcoRKyWfak6fUAeL7E3W2lW1bEP76v6njVNT03dd_GUs0ag720z-ZVTyfgQiCKzT7TrHMDyNkif_eYCDJmbeqMx3GYWLAJkfvQcAHbLPynBY4O1BiskXk63olNOiIiaS1zcbui3MznDGZCkw7wYuA5KpcVDGXWVRz/s841/NHC%20changes%207.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="841" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxydV4RslMAFalh9PX83glAe9KUTOdcoRKyWfak6fUAeL7E3W2lW1bEP76v6njVNT03dd_GUs0ag720z-ZVTyfgQiCKzT7TrHMDyNkif_eYCDJmbeqMx3GYWLAJkfvQcAHbLPynBY4O1BiskXk63olNOiIiaS1zcbui3MznDGZCkw7wYuA5KpcVDGXWVRz/s320/NHC%20changes%207.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Change to
the Time zone Reference in the Eastern Pacific…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This won’t affect
us here in the Northeast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Most of
Mexico no longer observes Daylight Saving<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Time,
therefore Central Standard and Mountain Standard time will be used in lieu of
Daylight<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Saving Time
within those two time zones. Since Daylight Time is used within portions of
Baja<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">California
and the southwestern United States, Pacific Daylight Time will continue to be
used<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">within that
time zone when Daylight Saving Time is observed. The time zone of reference in<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">NHC tropical
cyclone products is based on the initial position of the tropical cyclone at
the<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">advisory
issuance time, except for the caveat noted below. The time zone that appears in<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">eastern
Pacific tropical cyclone products will be determined by the initial longitude
of the tropical<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">cyclone as
follows:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Central
Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is east of 106.0W.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Mountain
Standard Time: longitude at advisory time is between 106.0W to 114.9W.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During
Daylight Saving Time, Pacific Daylight Time: when the longitude at advisory
time is<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">west of
115.0W. Otherwise, Pacific Standard Time will be used. Please note that this<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">guidance
applies to tropical cyclones that may affect Southern California.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">CAVEAT: If
the final forecast point for a tropical cyclone in the Tropical Cyclone<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Forecast/Advisory
(TCM) is west of 140W, the advisory will use Hawaii Standard Time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span> </p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-32292181570906855332024-03-05T15:08:00.011-05:002024-03-05T16:40:18.930-05:002024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook part one <p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Hard to
believe, but hurricane season is less than 100 days away. So, it’s time to
start talking about the Tropics. Based on data from 1991 to 2020, an average
season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major
hurricanes. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Before we get into the 2024
season, let’s take a quick look at the 2023 Atlantic season.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A look
back at the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season...<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">Part one</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/04/my-2023-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">Part two</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">Part three</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2023 the
tropical Pacific experienced El Nino. Typically, El Nino suppresses tropical
cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin, due to increased atmospheric
stability and increased vertical wind shear. But last season, in spite of it being a strong
El Nino; The season was very active. In fact, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane
season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year. Looking at the numbers, there
were 20 named storms (including an unnamed subtropical storm that formed on
January 16), seven of which were hurricanes, three of them became major
hurricanes (Cat 3+), and the season had an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of
146. In total there were 3 landfalling tropical cyclones on the U.S. main land.
The numbers show 2023 saw the most named storms in the Atlantic basin of any El
Nino influenced year in the official record. Another thing that is generally
true with El Nino impact on the Atlantic tropical season, is that the upper-level
wind pattern is more supportive of storms recurving north before they reach the
U.S.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When I
released part three of the hurricane outlook back in May, my final numbers were
14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS would see
2-4 landfalls with one of them possibility being major. The ACE would be
100-150. So, my outlook ended up as close to perfect as you can get.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I did a post
on why the season was so active, you can find it <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/12/why-hurricane-season-was-so-active.html" target="_blank">here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">OK let start
talking about the 2024 tropical season in the Atlantic…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">My outlooks
are based on yearly weather patterns. During the preseason, I look at that
overall pattern and how major teleconnections and things like Sea Surface
Temperatures (SST) will play into all of that. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Atlantic
Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1st.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEeFL0evAjnTAjv74ghfN7v_hQIWeyRZqYQd2Pg4X6PFUMiyD4019QIUbD6HQHRMRsKNuclCsvK5kLja-zZ3zBBr9D2tvIDtNCbb4Puo9vPELRYAP3rszAPQFkX3xtvofGGqPTyeSyaZ1EKt2UvGVrdLLrHsMtRQfuKRqcersWHgzPvLLJAKN8-yYTIRLs/s1787/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current%20345.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEeFL0evAjnTAjv74ghfN7v_hQIWeyRZqYQd2Pg4X6PFUMiyD4019QIUbD6HQHRMRsKNuclCsvK5kLja-zZ3zBBr9D2tvIDtNCbb4Puo9vPELRYAP3rszAPQFkX3xtvofGGqPTyeSyaZ1EKt2UvGVrdLLrHsMtRQfuKRqcersWHgzPvLLJAKN8-yYTIRLs/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current%20345.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Teleconnections…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">EL Nino is
fading, and looks to be quickly replaced by La Nina<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwI8Z_ADVwTXIRXRp0-CeU7yIlfjyhGut9i5JtTIfulJjdd_p0Z8n6NSuZh70kur73g8dcyGP8GMS1DDEfuFhLAOBHwdyE2fQ9agyRzsXSX6sIjKGn7JvyAJmH_NnkHa0t_BuU9ut10mXEzeBBSArt0FnPSwRwjItx_YF3Tjaen7a7epkpUUW3wTEF13v1/s1100/nino34Mon%20enso%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwI8Z_ADVwTXIRXRp0-CeU7yIlfjyhGut9i5JtTIfulJjdd_p0Z8n6NSuZh70kur73g8dcyGP8GMS1DDEfuFhLAOBHwdyE2fQ9agyRzsXSX6sIjKGn7JvyAJmH_NnkHa0t_BuU9ut10mXEzeBBSArt0FnPSwRwjItx_YF3Tjaen7a7epkpUUW3wTEF13v1/s320/nino34Mon%20enso%201.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">La Nina,
increases the odds for tropical cyclones. Because there is generally increased
atmospheric instability and decreased vertical wind shear. Also, since La Nina has by and large the opposite El Nino impact on the Atlantic tropical season, so
tropical systems have a greater chance to come farther west, into the western
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk160475099"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">SST Anomalies…<o:p></o:p></span></b></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg49QgNR68-wsuQlF2wYosM3N4pg7BOR_wbF-HlpL_SrocJ1WGaG7mSMlNv_OsML-lQTHelSMnd49evkxchOFO0ueeioxsjTKXS4dY67Py3PqqzOiVcQnhjvarH7Ntt9g804u7P_C7U-l-OQDr95V49d4c1s4yiOrsfoRY6Vp5fEYgJt0NnMhksUtrywkR6/s1490/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_west_current.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1490" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg49QgNR68-wsuQlF2wYosM3N4pg7BOR_wbF-HlpL_SrocJ1WGaG7mSMlNv_OsML-lQTHelSMnd49evkxchOFO0ueeioxsjTKXS4dY67Py3PqqzOiVcQnhjvarH7Ntt9g804u7P_C7U-l-OQDr95V49d4c1s4yiOrsfoRY6Vp5fEYgJt0NnMhksUtrywkR6/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_west_current.png" width="320" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE2foaK-vKnxgwJpx4rBE4kiVFaKTSSa96JdLD6Y93msLTnLPRyUmxUbEIcv5S0FOeRfuvR4z0WptHaMal81j9m4uN9KkgjNTyemaPIIacJz5hTtafblB-Kw8NBvNZDdpQEYu_Vy4PuXEE53J3RCwWPtvXcCI9v1Yg-7WwoEiTnUptS9743SvtUlVJsx6G/s800/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="800" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE2foaK-vKnxgwJpx4rBE4kiVFaKTSSa96JdLD6Y93msLTnLPRyUmxUbEIcv5S0FOeRfuvR4z0WptHaMal81j9m4uN9KkgjNTyemaPIIacJz5hTtafblB-Kw8NBvNZDdpQEYu_Vy4PuXEE53J3RCwWPtvXcCI9v1Yg-7WwoEiTnUptS9743SvtUlVJsx6G/s320/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png" width="320" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The SSTs in
the Atlantic Main Development Region (the area where most of the hurricane’s form)
between the West Coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are well above average.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> Right now, SSTs in the North Atlantic Basin
are running 2°F above the 1990-2020 average, and around 3°F above the average
SST back in the 1980’s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
chart make by Brian McNoldy (University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, Senior Research
Associate) that shows just how dramatic these temperatures are.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_S7bX-rtvu7ELHgAQh8EzuOcuOXHocwa11CBGBXT3p7Y89MnVnqExtqKjaQlWGiWavYG90AZ0C-m-NqXkGzISvZ4jB3UPiLrwxWXFxjV5PLrpW_H6sHETvJKdftaUT5pVk1jAh3IGS-uHfx2rx6DUV3-j1BqZrXFMPEPkfAD-uewNzwqV5gSIRNp_sw5n/s910/North%20atlantic%20sst%20graph.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="910" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_S7bX-rtvu7ELHgAQh8EzuOcuOXHocwa11CBGBXT3p7Y89MnVnqExtqKjaQlWGiWavYG90AZ0C-m-NqXkGzISvZ4jB3UPiLrwxWXFxjV5PLrpW_H6sHETvJKdftaUT5pVk1jAh3IGS-uHfx2rx6DUV3-j1BqZrXFMPEPkfAD-uewNzwqV5gSIRNp_sw5n/s320/North%20atlantic%20sst%20graph.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This warm
water provides developing tropical cyclones the fuel they need to develop and
become more intense. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">General
thoughts for the 2024 season… <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The combination
of La Nina and well above average SST means, 2024 has a good chance to be as
active or even more active than 2023 was.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The current trend
of the La Nina, looks to be in place for June and July. If this happens, the
middle and end of this hurricane season could be very active, maybe even
hyperactive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the projected Atlantic rainfall anomalies, we see where the highest anomalies
(the green swath) are located, pointing into the Caribbean and along the
Southeast Coast. While this doesn’t show tropical cyclones, it does show where
thunderstorms are more likely to form and track. With all that warm water, La
Nina potentially lowering wind shear, this would make sense. As it would
support hurricane development in this part of the Atlantic. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ezGMH-yit-NttRir0faGF7sJwKqRUgr0dvik2Ncpm0A4Ats2riry-Yf7lpEO7Kkuwhq9f1eao8RNHgBxt73lh3_SXG-01f-ffcDZWDzQ6pcMHA8cxGwja3VK9hJxL9JEdJbCN9c9-_2ZqaSxTZe6nLyzk_XKPMdLzRI1pJ3c6Khe1KlFON_NV_EkkePA/s1024/hurricane%20season%20precip%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1024" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ezGMH-yit-NttRir0faGF7sJwKqRUgr0dvik2Ncpm0A4Ats2riry-Yf7lpEO7Kkuwhq9f1eao8RNHgBxt73lh3_SXG-01f-ffcDZWDzQ6pcMHA8cxGwja3VK9hJxL9JEdJbCN9c9-_2ZqaSxTZe6nLyzk_XKPMdLzRI1pJ3c6Khe1KlFON_NV_EkkePA/s320/hurricane%20season%20precip%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKkKfImbPgRSTpEGvV_8N7S-OKQuCJsHAFGqMc04-V85-oHN329rELMDGVRVBH96MYRKp-qJLUG0tShTx5gghJC15-m5c-IAcMGd_aR5nTENLcAkMiqUyrDIxojq7MCAGai8j1dOIVw3uw3BMzeFbRbXQUwBZ3lnynGgCLKJ1WlvgX6DGX-RPp4OCwg47e/s1024/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_atl_5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="727" data-original-width="1024" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKkKfImbPgRSTpEGvV_8N7S-OKQuCJsHAFGqMc04-V85-oHN329rELMDGVRVBH96MYRKp-qJLUG0tShTx5gghJC15-m5c-IAcMGd_aR5nTENLcAkMiqUyrDIxojq7MCAGai8j1dOIVw3uw3BMzeFbRbXQUwBZ3lnynGgCLKJ1WlvgX6DGX-RPp4OCwg47e/s320/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_atl_5.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Hot
Spots… <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on the
pattern that looks to be setting up, these are the areas I think are at the
greatest risk of seeing a landfalling tropical cyclone this season. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ59ad8xBqFp1PgeWGF1OYdZYsc4r1XHGyCvkTUsCZnsWgjQMVtfr6nIJ-j0GEcFZLTSF8BextwhAXa3w_NBL3bf96LX3trnXgGrjOcDnU9NbVi92cC62_DsvEUJXxlbnEzUlxpsFhbY3ux2DfGX82gogG0K8t111nvVY84s4Yc60_rq4FFMANYL39rEZI/s942/U.S.%20hotspots%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="942" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ59ad8xBqFp1PgeWGF1OYdZYsc4r1XHGyCvkTUsCZnsWgjQMVtfr6nIJ-j0GEcFZLTSF8BextwhAXa3w_NBL3bf96LX3trnXgGrjOcDnU9NbVi92cC62_DsvEUJXxlbnEzUlxpsFhbY3ux2DfGX82gogG0K8t111nvVY84s4Yc60_rq4FFMANYL39rEZI/s320/U.S.%20hotspots%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The models
are generally pointing to the Caribbean, the eastern Gulf Coast and along the
Southeast Coast. So, hurricane impacts are particularly concerning for these
two areas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">That doesn’t
mean the Middle Atlantic and Northeast can relax this season. The areas away
from these hot spots are at a lesser risk, but that risk isn’t zero. New England is long overdue for a hurricane
impact. Last season New England dodged a couple of bullets. With the odds
favoring tropical cyclones making it farther west this season, New England has a
better shot at seeing a direct impact. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The official
list of tropical cyclone names in the Atlantic basin for 2024 includes…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Alberto, Beryl,
Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton,
Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valeria, William. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Final
Thoughts…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is the
time to get prepared for the upcoming hurricane season, develop a plan for you
and your family that will keep you safe, also make sure that a hurricane kit is ready to go, just in case.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s too
early to try and figure out the possible numbers of hurricanes this season. So that
detail will be covered over the next couple of months. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is an
early outlook that is calling for an above average active hurricane season, due
to the record warm SST in the tropical Atlantic and El Nino likely switching to
La Nina at the peak of season. But if La Nina doesn’t form or takes longer to
develop that could change things. Still,
plenty of time to watch how things trend and evolve. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) will release NOAAs seasonal hurricane outlook around
May 23<sup>rd</sup>. Other major weather outlets will be releasing outlooks
during April into May. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I will release
part two sometime in April and then part three in May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">I will also be releasing a post on several changes
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be issuing for the 2024 season.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div></span>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-36344462926557028482024-02-23T14:04:00.006-05:002024-03-07T17:20:01.014-05:00The 2024 Spring Outlook <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Meteorological
spring is right around the corner with the season kicking off on the first day
of March; but Astronomical spring (vernal equinox) is less than a month away,
which officially begins on March 19 at 11:06 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So here are
my overall thoughts on the 2024 Spring Season in the Northeast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But first,
let’s take a look at the 2023-2024 winter season since it is nearing its end.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on
pressure anomalies, the overall pattern was quite similar to what the winter
outlook indicated. The winter also favored above average precipitation. But
what caused Winter 2023-2024 to be basically a no-show were the warm temperatures.
With winter officially coming to an end, there is no doubt that the winter
2023-2024 will go down as a very warm winter. In fact, it is one of the warmest
winters in recorded history. This warmth has also led to record-low Great Lakes
ice cover for this time of year. If winter were to end today, this would go
down as the warmest winter on record for the vast majority of the Northeast and
northern Middle Atlantic. The warmth is in spite of the disruptions in the
polar vortex we saw during the winter. In the outlook I said we would see disruptions
in the vortex, this did indeed work out.</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In fact, the PV has seen so many disruptions it caused issues
and allowed the PV to interfere with itself. During the winter, we had the problem that many times the cold air was directed away from the Northeast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In spite of
all the warmth, there were cold outbreaks. We had cold air moving into the
region in November into the first week of December. Then we warmed up for Mid-December.
Before a cool off for closer to the end of the Month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January started very warm. Then once we got
into Mid-January, the Polar Vortex was displaced, brought about by the Sudden
Stratospheric Warming Event in Early January. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, when we
got to Mid-January the Canadian gates opened, and true arctic air invaded the
East Coast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cold <a name="_Hlk159433168">brought by the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in Early
January </a>with the <a name="_Hlk159433104">displaced Polar Vortex</a> help
set off some moderate winter storms for the Middle Atlantic and a few bigger
storms for the general Northeast. There was the Pre-Thanksgiving storm A winter
storm affected Northern New England shortly before U.S. Thanksgiving., Three
storms in January, then we had the Pre-Valentine's Day nor'easter on the 10–13
of February. Then there was the February 15–18 nor’easter. There were also a
couple of major lake effect snow events that brought significant snowfall down
wind of Lake Eire and Lake Ontario. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
the overall above average temperatures, resulted in huge snowfall deficits for
many parts of the Northeast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, while
the Outlook did get the general pressure pattern and the above average
precipitation right; It fell short when it came to overall snowfall accumulations
over a large part of the region. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you want to look at my 2023-2024 winter
outlook, you can find part one <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-one.html" target="_blank">here</a>. The other two parts you can find by
following the links in part one. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The major
players for the demise of snow in the Northeast…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">One of the
main drivers during this past winter was El Nino. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In November the El Nino became strong with water
temperature in the Nino region 3.4 reaching 1.9°C. Strong El Ninos has no
strong correlation to snowfall here in the Northeast and Northern Middle
Atlantic, there have been seasons that saw little snow fall and seasons that
had a lot of snowfall. These mixed signals make it hard to pin down seasonal snowfall
amounts. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There's also
has been a lack of persistent high latitude blocking. The lack of a Greenland
block kept the pattern fast and zonal (west to east). The result of no blocking
meant the cold air from Canada couldn’t hang on for longer than a few days.
Instead, blocking high pressure setup over much central and eastern Canada,
keeping the Northeast persistently much warmer than average overall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Tonga’s
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha apai volcanic eruption in 2022 vaporized a huge volume of
water, that released an enormous amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. This
water vapor didn’t reach the northern hemisphere until the end of 2022 into
2023. So, it’s reasonable to think that the recent warming in the Northern
Hemisphere is at least in part due to the Tonga Eruption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That eruption is going to heat us up for
several more years, add in El Nino’s effect and we ended up with a major winter
interruption.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
subtropical jet was active all winter it was also very strong. For that reason,
those times that we did get cold enough for snow, the northern jet didn’t see
much in the way of moisture interaction from disturbances in the Subtropical
Jet. Because there was a lack of high latitude blocking and the southern jet
was so strong, the streams phased too late to bring major snowstorms to the
Middle Atlantic and Northeast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Why discuss
winter when doing a spring outlook? Because, Spring is a transition between
winter and summer. Spring can be greatly influenced by the winter that went
before it.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If you don’t
want to read the meteorological analysis, you can skip to the bottom.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>OK what
about Spring for 2024…</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Earlier in
Spring 2023, I discussed how Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) were quickly
heating up in the eastern Pacific Ocean. By June of 2023, NOAA declared that El
Nino was well underway, the first one in four years! SST were roughly 0.5°C
warmer than average in this region of the Pacific. The El Nino did become very
strong, during the winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk159509840"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a look at the SST anomalies from November 29<sup>th.</sup></span></a><a name="_Hlk159509840"></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk159509840"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRz_5r45KxFvSGWd-JBSiN-eAvInLUiCVgAgtgTjiCjXukP5nOcDLsY2xdxKp2Rn74vBaGoiyHdczPvOu9lmsECVDHjX6WwrWsJlo4cybyb5uvB77O77kgkiJYCIvV8veOrFWeyGb6D0BZJVJGyBSUpzBJytZzSGysj3__toO3_QkTbdpyTOSa1j3Exrj/s940/Thursday%20now%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="940" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRz_5r45KxFvSGWd-JBSiN-eAvInLUiCVgAgtgTjiCjXukP5nOcDLsY2xdxKp2Rn74vBaGoiyHdczPvOu9lmsECVDHjX6WwrWsJlo4cybyb5uvB77O77kgkiJYCIvV8veOrFWeyGb6D0BZJVJGyBSUpzBJytZzSGysj3__toO3_QkTbdpyTOSa1j3Exrj/s320/Thursday%20now%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><sup><br /></sup><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; display: inline; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;">Now, over
the past few weeks, the El Nino conditions have faded across the equatorial
Pacific.</span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
look at the SST anomalies for February the 21st.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3_oAtQ6Q9s58L3a9MMmsn-xaRfEuV-5qQij1-SqTsLr3QeLi2iFGHtyhcx4Bmuc5hRfHVZwZk_2HVz1VN97hjPBI2Mg-JFw7UxhcDa16wdrfLCqb9GjAnEF6ONxHC7MMiNa-mLBk3PLbQHggbstGvv-AHyaOPqGhkcUVxErxWp2mZ-qAqHzYAXBPj7-hk/s1787/current%20SST%20El%20Nino%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3_oAtQ6Q9s58L3a9MMmsn-xaRfEuV-5qQij1-SqTsLr3QeLi2iFGHtyhcx4Bmuc5hRfHVZwZk_2HVz1VN97hjPBI2Mg-JFw7UxhcDa16wdrfLCqb9GjAnEF6ONxHC7MMiNa-mLBk3PLbQHggbstGvv-AHyaOPqGhkcUVxErxWp2mZ-qAqHzYAXBPj7-hk/s320/current%20SST%20El%20Nino%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Currently in
Nino region 3.4 the El Nino is considered weak to moderate. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">However, while the El Nino is dissipating, the
atmospheric conditions brought on by the El Nino, are going to linger, which
means the warmer and wetter conditions experienced across the region during the
winter should continue into the spring months.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The image
below shows the ENSO regions across the tropical Pacific. The main region is
seen in the image as the Nino 3.4 region. This area covers parts of the eastern
and western tropical Pacific and is where the ENSO phase is determined.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDu7NeJA7EcJTn2Cb0yVUVDWJmahpEfTVFw3CaREClxDErbAqqKHZwTcOh_2rpFNoZeI_2JmMY4fZXWZSOCHy_ByvCYvZmMT3pGPsox7QXf-Wk83tsVqyQNWr0sMocwMjeLIeL-61pFXLbuy2gSoR1V3bMs98CT_zdOEKc1mcJ5JZr5MIJEKf65tGr3eW8/s1182/Nino%20regions..jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1182" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDu7NeJA7EcJTn2Cb0yVUVDWJmahpEfTVFw3CaREClxDErbAqqKHZwTcOh_2rpFNoZeI_2JmMY4fZXWZSOCHy_ByvCYvZmMT3pGPsox7QXf-Wk83tsVqyQNWr0sMocwMjeLIeL-61pFXLbuy2gSoR1V3bMs98CT_zdOEKc1mcJ5JZr5MIJEKf65tGr3eW8/s320/Nino%20regions..jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We just
can’t look at the surface, looking at the subsurface water temperature anomalies<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">December
19th<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZYXpBUg-Avn0OXkArtfxkBdFIRDdmDIae8BHQMOldCePW1EYNF3vlbsPX0SKfg-2FxmOcK-UgwgaY5X3KDhUerEeee711E-9RWoDhCDGG8d0dC8UKNNCF7eOJ9-v0Rm0B22u5w_THCJXTt8YJqlrTx0JDc-nx09vAdCzt3z9K0wx2_JItxfxzlcCLZvu/s797/subsurface%20dec%2019.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="797" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZYXpBUg-Avn0OXkArtfxkBdFIRDdmDIae8BHQMOldCePW1EYNF3vlbsPX0SKfg-2FxmOcK-UgwgaY5X3KDhUerEeee711E-9RWoDhCDGG8d0dC8UKNNCF7eOJ9-v0Rm0B22u5w_THCJXTt8YJqlrTx0JDc-nx09vAdCzt3z9K0wx2_JItxfxzlcCLZvu/s320/subsurface%20dec%2019.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">February 17<sup>th</sup><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVIVfiO7B6kcaU5fmL77CGP8UijndYXapzTqKc3A4dbYjWYhQ7mIPElN3gMJJtTtcxv2HOIj_MyI1R5hzfqG_iuazkFik0i55YvV9hjOZgb7zw3bsbbQ2wOJDHbk4xMV5tdZmH975ZXsgohyphenhyphenSeykREWvijVVNP3r33B-rDw67aHtAOyrmbx3nxD9eLoDBU/s806/subsurface%20feb%2017.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="806" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVIVfiO7B6kcaU5fmL77CGP8UijndYXapzTqKc3A4dbYjWYhQ7mIPElN3gMJJtTtcxv2HOIj_MyI1R5hzfqG_iuazkFik0i55YvV9hjOZgb7zw3bsbbQ2wOJDHbk4xMV5tdZmH975ZXsgohyphenhyphenSeykREWvijVVNP3r33B-rDw67aHtAOyrmbx3nxD9eLoDBU/s320/subsurface%20feb%2017.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We can see a
large area of cold water is moving towards the surface.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The
subsurface temperature changes have prompted the Climate Prediction Center to
issue an official La Nina watch.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">IRI ENSO
Predictions Plume<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfuz-gnp2h3pz_rdwsqpOcz6NW3MS-OFJmzCgM5G7KgIxXLqHwawZ4LIpPcv14zPfL-2wMo60wKDU4U4rYnCMplvp9BUYV2okcdHk80Nz4RaUNe47G4oBch_lKNjTtUXC03QJVCpn6tkI9OuD3rnDgDYBgNUUefhZpJbPFT5rJN76Kr0UaGe10TL4zNcu4/s1078/IRI%20ENSO%20Predictions%20Plume.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1078" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfuz-gnp2h3pz_rdwsqpOcz6NW3MS-OFJmzCgM5G7KgIxXLqHwawZ4LIpPcv14zPfL-2wMo60wKDU4U4rYnCMplvp9BUYV2okcdHk80Nz4RaUNe47G4oBch_lKNjTtUXC03QJVCpn6tkI9OuD3rnDgDYBgNUUefhZpJbPFT5rJN76Kr0UaGe10TL4zNcu4/s320/IRI%20ENSO%20Predictions%20Plume.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">With El Nino
looking to quickly weaken through the upcoming spring, neutral conditions will
end up taking over by the end of Spring, with the possibility of a La Nina
developing for the during the summer into fall of 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This will of
course have ramifications on the 2024 Atlantic tropical season: I will discuss
the Atlantic hurricane season in a separate blog post.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO)…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Currently
the MJO is very weak and is inside the null circle, meaning it’s not exerting
any forcing on the pattern. Looking at the MJO forecast from the GFS and Euro,
we can see the MJO looks to stay weak, not putting any influence on the pattern
at least through the middle of March.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">GFS</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHG9xEEcm_GehekIEod7r0_qde_XrO2CP4LLBy3fXMIgcX0JxjmlRzr41h_Ss06SYSPD4HA4r2W5qN0hCPhV6IirNP6cfj93k5O2lVlokcgGTrzbM-U8EPTOjGp61hZSDB-VxX9pyz2MoMtCJntoJXHT2fRVdexnH4E63zTdlLR68aFhhaoHkmA-C1FnF9/s650/MJO%20GFS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHG9xEEcm_GehekIEod7r0_qde_XrO2CP4LLBy3fXMIgcX0JxjmlRzr41h_Ss06SYSPD4HA4r2W5qN0hCPhV6IirNP6cfj93k5O2lVlokcgGTrzbM-U8EPTOjGp61hZSDB-VxX9pyz2MoMtCJntoJXHT2fRVdexnH4E63zTdlLR68aFhhaoHkmA-C1FnF9/s320/MJO%20GFS.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Euro. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3BdnMj45JTgKPC0Ogz-KOZzzTbG4BhP2SPDIyU2PN-nuIfSvzOFzpAmCBH6mZDWLtPdU19wyabDrjxGwXVHe9Gz055TURaoV_AKwmzPFSBNnAIWn-hn9h6yXz_ZIG0iSJJeEDi76S4OiU16BLXW2caSixx7U2qVPAwO0jRllF77jLO5zFSN5Ijvgp9aE_/s650/MJO%20EURO.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3BdnMj45JTgKPC0Ogz-KOZzzTbG4BhP2SPDIyU2PN-nuIfSvzOFzpAmCBH6mZDWLtPdU19wyabDrjxGwXVHe9Gz055TURaoV_AKwmzPFSBNnAIWn-hn9h6yXz_ZIG0iSJJeEDi76S4OiU16BLXW2caSixx7U2qVPAwO0jRllF77jLO5zFSN5Ijvgp9aE_/s320/MJO%20EURO.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Polar
Vortex…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We currently
have warming in the Stratosphere. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been
in (and still is) in the Easterly phase. This is the reason we had so many stratospheric
warming events this winter. So, the current warming is no surprise. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During
March, the QBO is going to weaken, and most likely will become westerly at some
point, with the QBO becoming weaker, the tendency for PV disruptions is going
to fade away. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The current
stratospheric warming is going to disrupted the PV, which will allow colder air
to move into the Mid Latitudes. Like we saw during mid-January. But the problem
is the cold air is looking to be deflected into Asia and Europe. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This means
that we’re going to see the Pacific Jet become strong and very zonal. This will
mean it will run roughshod over the Pattern over North America. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The same
general pattern we saw during the winter, should stay with us as we go into
Spring. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">March…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">March is
always a transition month. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, we’re
typically on a rollercoaster. This year will be no exception. March will likely
start out quite mild. Then we should see a flip to cooler temperatures. But as
has been the case during the winter, this cooler shot, likely won’t stick
around for long. March is likely to experience these fleeting shots of
cool/cold air, but they will likely quickly be replaced with warmer
temperatures. March should be quite active. Precipitation should average above average for the month. We
haven’t had a lot of snow this winter. but I don’t think the Northeast into
Middle Atlantic is completely out of the woods when it comes to snow, as I
can’t entirely rule out the snow chances. With that said, the pattern won’t be
super supportive for snow storms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NOAA
temperature and Precipitation outlooks here take us to March 7th…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1u00NhIoPrWSGZL4YF3jd_e8WBuGdn4MMKDyjpIx-jdOSwP0t8rcFZ2shERceUXNbihS3shr14kGyPLw1ewDd6IPfXUVn9j39r1QRYx6O_T2Fc8xgwp3nGV17ZIVq9zqJ_v0P6HVUApmcPUSYuk3nM7d-8XNybyDTLr-qJjzbb11i9zSral7sLpdCeMdI/s3300/NOAA%20temp%20outlook.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1u00NhIoPrWSGZL4YF3jd_e8WBuGdn4MMKDyjpIx-jdOSwP0t8rcFZ2shERceUXNbihS3shr14kGyPLw1ewDd6IPfXUVn9j39r1QRYx6O_T2Fc8xgwp3nGV17ZIVq9zqJ_v0P6HVUApmcPUSYuk3nM7d-8XNybyDTLr-qJjzbb11i9zSral7sLpdCeMdI/s320/NOAA%20temp%20outlook.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGMFhdyN67879ILx_w5hbM2JkK67elagacVijXrbVExCFCHVxa3AOHZ_viIvpegJzc1CLSbfG4nAwgZtwhClLTNswwViMVVYrYGy-VX3vzCGfp1Ak0EJGQ_9VHWNbWaSZEL08f9HfnJIWuLUCXurwc_KoUp1YHDi0Nkt8QeaFIlaiSf651__gytIe9oa6t/s3300/NOAA%20precip%20outlook.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGMFhdyN67879ILx_w5hbM2JkK67elagacVijXrbVExCFCHVxa3AOHZ_viIvpegJzc1CLSbfG4nAwgZtwhClLTNswwViMVVYrYGy-VX3vzCGfp1Ak0EJGQ_9VHWNbWaSZEL08f9HfnJIWuLUCXurwc_KoUp1YHDi0Nkt8QeaFIlaiSf651__gytIe9oa6t/s320/NOAA%20precip%20outlook.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">April…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures
should end up above average for most of our region. But the southern Middle
Atlantic will likely end up slightly below average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation
should be generally above average across the Northeast into northern Middle
Atlantic. <a name="_Hlk159531150">the wet pattern will continue from March.
Showers and storms will keep us watching the local river levels.<o:p></o:p></a></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk159531150;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">May…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures
should average well above average across Northern parts of the Northeast. With
temperatures above average across the southern Northeast into the Middle
Atlantic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation
is going to be dependent on storms and where they form and track. But it looks
like the pattern very well could support rain and storms. I think May will
feature quite a bit of severe weather in the Northeast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I do think there will be an elevated tornado
risk in May, across Southern New England, across the New York State Southern
Tier, into Pennsylvania</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperature outlook for March, April, and May.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1raE3_QYd_KN7UINYpzyeuUYx_bueoqLAkvERoDTVUzfjoEuBmjxBAFP-zTG4xLP_XtDuAPXyAjIenyj68OND4BQobD4Ld-x1qBVfY4bq4B37mdmpMrkrc8DyENbCEeTAXe3QjKWAGSWQboc6uEyvRwInsew20IvlNW9NeDG7Trn6W6UpUkJWtckvTr94/s1271/temp%20for%20MAM.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="1271" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1raE3_QYd_KN7UINYpzyeuUYx_bueoqLAkvERoDTVUzfjoEuBmjxBAFP-zTG4xLP_XtDuAPXyAjIenyj68OND4BQobD4Ld-x1qBVfY4bq4B37mdmpMrkrc8DyENbCEeTAXe3QjKWAGSWQboc6uEyvRwInsew20IvlNW9NeDG7Trn6W6UpUkJWtckvTr94/s320/temp%20for%20MAM.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Precipitation outlook for March, April, and May.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC_q2fw0up_wZyc6bOsRJh1RR0wbaLhZppqpGuPW1avNcleuIMti0Jmz3VbAt2ZKGD44rTJaifC1iC00ExR7gGTnOxei_lTxdRgaal1vJbM6VyQqdG87qt8hJdwKxIVmIzsQlLZPUzYVvFDfSuCdyj8AvDNExu9opqlVHpPkLia29Ihv4RwHhQ-VTaZJcP/s1271/precip%20for%20MAM.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1271" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC_q2fw0up_wZyc6bOsRJh1RR0wbaLhZppqpGuPW1avNcleuIMti0Jmz3VbAt2ZKGD44rTJaifC1iC00ExR7gGTnOxei_lTxdRgaal1vJbM6VyQqdG87qt8hJdwKxIVmIzsQlLZPUzYVvFDfSuCdyj8AvDNExu9opqlVHpPkLia29Ihv4RwHhQ-VTaZJcP/s320/precip%20for%20MAM.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-68639743297265233592024-01-19T16:42:00.001-05:002024-01-19T16:43:38.076-05:00How February into March looks to unfold?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I’ve been getting
a lot of questions and request in regards to the general pattern for February
into March. So here is a post that will cover that. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">December
went the way the winter outlook said it would. The outlook also said
temperatures would likely become below average during the 2<sup>nd</sup> half
of January, that too has come to pass. We have been seeing snow, New York City,
Philadelphia Baltimore and Washington DC have broken the snowfall drought. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, for the most part, the outlook has done
very well so far. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> What about the rest of Winter?</o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p>Sea Surface Temperature</o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTgRfbz1S_W3GK9Yvcwvk9sUKERu9fsvE9eiZWxyIW4Q41sVvRWMfMi1r3Ee0p6JdONEj6iJL1IJjTzMtuo_-HhsP25uzdjPHIGFRYtFYH2QTlLIZ5-j1N4es6aFpGH1fiR0gyo3C_wcKiXBGt79pZfX9jb1LrH9e535J4Wxejtw2Xe-J1Duu6tnAD1utm/s1787/SST%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTgRfbz1S_W3GK9Yvcwvk9sUKERu9fsvE9eiZWxyIW4Q41sVvRWMfMi1r3Ee0p6JdONEj6iJL1IJjTzMtuo_-HhsP25uzdjPHIGFRYtFYH2QTlLIZ5-j1N4es6aFpGH1fiR0gyo3C_wcKiXBGt79pZfX9jb1LrH9e535J4Wxejtw2Xe-J1Duu6tnAD1utm/s320/SST%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The strong El
Nino has likely peaked, as we move toward Spring it should gradually weaken. We
could see the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) become neutral by June. But
the atmosphere will keep the memory of El Nino alive for a couple of months
past that. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm1rWXXykWfjoBdzQcpeeTwXAC6V6p0c0hMNt4vdj04gaJZ_OYpYF7Y6OTspFdkaHP9eogYtCnoJW9suWaa0kKdSv3FhjVQWuwjRCIcZZ-UFVsgAwPSuzouF6odr2PHu0OVcjbEUDTr45cPoFx-GrossMHCUpf2qf-1t6GDypOeUMwR8UWX51r2sHwO46U/s1140/ENSO%20%20model%20prediction.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1140" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm1rWXXykWfjoBdzQcpeeTwXAC6V6p0c0hMNt4vdj04gaJZ_OYpYF7Y6OTspFdkaHP9eogYtCnoJW9suWaa0kKdSv3FhjVQWuwjRCIcZZ-UFVsgAwPSuzouF6odr2PHu0OVcjbEUDTr45cPoFx-GrossMHCUpf2qf-1t6GDypOeUMwR8UWX51r2sHwO46U/s320/ENSO%20%20model%20prediction.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf6c-VEePZgT-IRyVOqEICAo788MwUYQVxisQ69Eq8MvNLUhko8RYl5vwEHg7AV-d3nBXlBKYa1jX9baJgYhSSq9kLzeC2pi0b4gxiNqGcIPsPOWskp4AqqMHWQ-xdIgWMYD5P1DKlunNzziGIQRvr4AHdRY1zAUZsCWIFca35hZobfEu5EEZ7WsH1hjx4/s2400/CPCoff_ENSOprobs_012024.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1400" data-original-width="2400" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf6c-VEePZgT-IRyVOqEICAo788MwUYQVxisQ69Eq8MvNLUhko8RYl5vwEHg7AV-d3nBXlBKYa1jX9baJgYhSSq9kLzeC2pi0b4gxiNqGcIPsPOWskp4AqqMHWQ-xdIgWMYD5P1DKlunNzziGIQRvr4AHdRY1zAUZsCWIFca35hZobfEu5EEZ7WsH1hjx4/s320/CPCoff_ENSOprobs_012024.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The ECMWF, is
signaling for a strong Winter weather pattern, for the eastern CONUS during
February and likely into March.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">When I looked at the 500mb pattern going forward, it showed colder signal for the central and
eastern CONUS. So the overall pattern for February, favors a ridge over the Western United States and a trough over the Eastern CONUS. This is a good sign that winter isn't over yet by a long shot. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPRZvdDsQ8QpCQvUUzPIO_Qu-kcnuZ_OUJOwKRg5-afQtsge9Boq8S7hhis0SaMTpuOhMoQ8TTy0cOanHD8YEp1bPPeI06TvMUpuJbRcQd_IN6fJlDn80sIGmms95fiMBbd7Ma9BuBaiFLn1DdNeNVUDHFBkLSlWRAcv6LiDcl-0jDwPfv34e50Z1H1NZ-/s750/Feb%20temp%20PV%2010mb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPRZvdDsQ8QpCQvUUzPIO_Qu-kcnuZ_OUJOwKRg5-afQtsge9Boq8S7hhis0SaMTpuOhMoQ8TTy0cOanHD8YEp1bPPeI06TvMUpuJbRcQd_IN6fJlDn80sIGmms95fiMBbd7Ma9BuBaiFLn1DdNeNVUDHFBkLSlWRAcv6LiDcl-0jDwPfv34e50Z1H1NZ-/s320/Feb%20temp%20PV%2010mb.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Polar
Vortex is split into three parts, the weak vortex is the reason we’ve been so
cold. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4MiD33g9BJ2WWSATgR3nIOM-XlMDIOwhsaAokYOiwjzl0wKyttFhOgf-UAHnEGfNEbEOfbn1_-QvFB8oxtDdmqrYebQERO80Obr5F4r2mANBb0MAgM-GX9Llte25byhHg_yFD1DGIb9ebZm1oM2Odazrg5CWOeb5cQbwQp_LPV__7dmZkR2J8hQ2p40t/s1537/Stratosphere%2010mb%20wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1094" data-original-width="1537" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4MiD33g9BJ2WWSATgR3nIOM-XlMDIOwhsaAokYOiwjzl0wKyttFhOgf-UAHnEGfNEbEOfbn1_-QvFB8oxtDdmqrYebQERO80Obr5F4r2mANBb0MAgM-GX9Llte25byhHg_yFD1DGIb9ebZm1oM2Odazrg5CWOeb5cQbwQp_LPV__7dmZkR2J8hQ2p40t/s320/Stratosphere%2010mb%20wind.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji95sYfL4WLRcZJsq0aGsEpMjdQlvhkCp70NBe-dNwrv0F9haWcnERTJkKtVAOORdvEOs97xbOVx5T04Z8bWd7ldpkYSK6VOJ8Z8u3igbgpvWxnbgy141sNY7ltm4WhxMyPGcht-qSj-dxm3nId7RiMgOHykMWmtJKy52_TRjoSHhj0E7fg_7fbxovh2Tn/s770/zonal%20wind%20at%2010%20hpa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="770" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji95sYfL4WLRcZJsq0aGsEpMjdQlvhkCp70NBe-dNwrv0F9haWcnERTJkKtVAOORdvEOs97xbOVx5T04Z8bWd7ldpkYSK6VOJ8Z8u3igbgpvWxnbgy141sNY7ltm4WhxMyPGcht-qSj-dxm3nId7RiMgOHykMWmtJKy52_TRjoSHhj0E7fg_7fbxovh2Tn/s320/zonal%20wind%20at%2010%20hpa.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">We have
another sudden stratospheric warming event starting. But we won’t feel the
effects from this until at least the end of January and first week of
February.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Depending on how strong it
gets we could end up with at least couple weeks of arctic air.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZyTeX-kjPsBXAkIGJ_6R2pDFWUHpz18U-091MnZRpvz4T84Dr_osG6kLH2xa5Wf343ffmP143ZNGwrE1BL-IPfQgaVnxbCDmKwM1ahWNf-tPyUKnH7fHDcRE-yfD95BL-eLpfcprQwnx1B19OlW1WeQvXflMhzmWg9VYIjEeXfiNEoqcfzdk6ovU9gT-s/s650/MJO%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZyTeX-kjPsBXAkIGJ_6R2pDFWUHpz18U-091MnZRpvz4T84Dr_osG6kLH2xa5Wf343ffmP143ZNGwrE1BL-IPfQgaVnxbCDmKwM1ahWNf-tPyUKnH7fHDcRE-yfD95BL-eLpfcprQwnx1B19OlW1WeQvXflMhzmWg9VYIjEeXfiNEoqcfzdk6ovU9gT-s/s320/MJO%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3lFzQ_Gk4C-DPHt8EbeUy0iFamq03_tDvCBXhBVKvdwogWAvQrUE6C6GYnxqwE6f6lVDBWdXwjAajPUDlCig7JR9MmU33yqy8hPg4YTvdwZ3RA8KOjm3oSSA-POaMupTPV62ND_GfaS7z4iKT5kVNnBVwD-389l8YelTmRdw1vOcM9SkRGYeLvIb-7Tfs/s650/MJO%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3lFzQ_Gk4C-DPHt8EbeUy0iFamq03_tDvCBXhBVKvdwogWAvQrUE6C6GYnxqwE6f6lVDBWdXwjAajPUDlCig7JR9MmU33yqy8hPg4YTvdwZ3RA8KOjm3oSSA-POaMupTPV62ND_GfaS7z4iKT5kVNnBVwD-389l8YelTmRdw1vOcM9SkRGYeLvIb-7Tfs/s320/MJO%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The MJO is
going to move through the warm phases of 4,5 and 6, but then as we get into
February the MJO heads for and moves into phase 7 and then phase 8. Phase 8 is
a cold phase for February <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ_hMsZvDVV0UfqAaw4DfTkLvVZ3AgcIvyUsAYOMBdk_mmIYJu-spSSV4y-T2AkOjp7hSyYB-2JOfelX1yQP61t-sdAAU1QoZmcUJSmzB81pF7A_xZTlHzn5AzF-WQe5XrhUy0407xWAItmmGs36dLGsHLeBWPYfim1tP4IY7lS1p9lNcfYfShpai3PnOv/s1000/combined_image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1000" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ_hMsZvDVV0UfqAaw4DfTkLvVZ3AgcIvyUsAYOMBdk_mmIYJu-spSSV4y-T2AkOjp7hSyYB-2JOfelX1yQP61t-sdAAU1QoZmcUJSmzB81pF7A_xZTlHzn5AzF-WQe5XrhUy0407xWAItmmGs36dLGsHLeBWPYfim1tP4IY7lS1p9lNcfYfShpai3PnOv/s320/combined_image.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The MJO going
into phase 8 and supports what looks to be going on in the stratosphere. If the
MJO can make it into phase 8, this should allow for a favorable setup for more
in the way of cold air impacting the region past mid-February. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">After the
short warm up and relaxing of the active pattern. The cold will return and the
pattern will become active again, especially for the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of
February. There is no reason to think there won’t be snow chances during
February. The overall setup will support snow. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I’ve been
seeing people complaining that all we’ve been seeing is Great Lakes Cutters, but
this isn’t true. There have been a few cutters, several Alberta Clippers,
shortwave storms that moved off the Coast, there have also been a few nor’easters.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Outside of the storm on December 11<sup>th</sup>,
that brought heavy wet snowfall to northern New York and central and northern New
England, there haven’t been any real block buster storms, but there have been
moderate to weak events, across the region, including the I-95 over the last
two storms. There have also been a couple of major lake effect events downwind
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Yes, many areas are running snowfall deficits.
But it has been snowing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">With February
looking to be generally chilly to cold; I don’t think we’re done seeing arctic
air invading the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic Region. With the
pattern looking to be active; there is going to be snowstorms. The idea of a
block buster snowstorm during February, isn’t farfetched. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">General
thoughts for February<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures
<a name="_Hlk156503545">on the whole for February should end up overall
slightly below average<o:p></o:p></a></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk156503545;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Total precipitation
on the whole for February should end up overall slightly below average. But snowfall
should end up overall above average.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I have every reason to believe, that the outlook I laid out in the Fall, is looking good, and should end up at least in the general ballpark.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-three.html" target="_blank">Part 3 of the winter outlook</a>.<br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-34031535195737504782023-12-08T21:57:00.009-05:002023-12-09T16:51:07.096-05:00Why the hurricane season was so active? <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A little
overview of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The 2023
Atlantic hurricane season, officially ended on Nov. 30. In spite of it being a
strong El Nino; The season was very active. In fact, the 2023 Atlantic
hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year. Looking at the
numbers, there were 20 named storms (including an unnamed subtropical storm that
formed on January 16), seven of which were hurricanes, three of them became
major hurricanes, and the season had an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE) of 146. In total there were 3 landfalling tropical cyclones on the U.S.
main land. The numbers show 2023 saw the most named storms in the Atlantic
basin of any El Nino influenced year in the official record.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
comparison, based on data from 1991 to 2020,</span><span face="Roboto, arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #70757a; font-size: 14px; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">an average season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes,
and three major hurricanes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2023’s 20
named storms, ended up a tie with 1933 which also saw 20 named storms. The
three years that surpassed 2023 numbers were, 2021 which had 21, 2005 which saw
28, and 2020 which saw 30.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I released
part three of the hurricane outlook back in May, my final numbers were 14-20
named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS would see 2-4
landfalls with one of them possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So overall my outlook verified very well. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Looking at the storm tracks map<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyiFje308eNTPOgRwYmKU62AxtuNhHGQ8XMoHW46OeV1FxMHACmzwhiuHwNN1sWDGbLSjAk4MxBtDvV6QolMiqgU2-S0X080noy8t4VMC-TyLHZAMEd80MQO7q1K9neXMrJz5i6ihUA8SqL5-6bzdyMwdPShR1ecPYnp7otLwzNxGgtxWJBzMIJB5DrpQv/s1279/2023%20hurricane%20season%20tracks..jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1279" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyiFje308eNTPOgRwYmKU62AxtuNhHGQ8XMoHW46OeV1FxMHACmzwhiuHwNN1sWDGbLSjAk4MxBtDvV6QolMiqgU2-S0X080noy8t4VMC-TyLHZAMEd80MQO7q1K9neXMrJz5i6ihUA8SqL5-6bzdyMwdPShR1ecPYnp7otLwzNxGgtxWJBzMIJB5DrpQv/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20tracks..jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></p>We can see the Atlantic itself was exceptionally active,
while the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico saw hardly any activity. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Image credit WGNO in New Orleans</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Landfalling Systems:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Three Atlantic storms made landfall on the U.S., Major
Hurricane Idalia and two U.S. landfalling Tropical Storms</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Harold and Ophelia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The first U.S. landfall of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane
season came on August 22nd as Tropical Storm Harold moved ashore Padre Island
in South Texas with 50 mph winds, causing minor damage and localized flooding
across the southwestern U.S.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The second landfalling system Idalia was the only
hurricane to hit the US this year. She started as an area of disturbed weather
over the eastern Pacific. She then moved across Central America into the northwestern
Caribbean, where she slowly organized, becoming a tropical depression on the 26<sup>th</sup>
of August; she became a tropical storm on the 27<sup>th</sup>. By
early Monday morning on the 28th, Idalia began her northward turn and after
crossing the western tip of Cuba Monday night, Idalia would rapidly intensify
from a tropical storm into a major hurricane on Tuesday the 29<sup>th</sup>
over the Gulf of Mexico. She obtained major category 4 hurricane status with
sustained winds of 130 mph. Then right before landfall, she underwent an
eyewall replacement cycle which allowed her to weaken slightly to a 125-mph
category 3 hurricane. She made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend,</span> near <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Keaton Beach, Fla bringing storm surge flooding up to 7 to 12 feet, on
Aug. 30, 2023 at 7:45 a.m.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The third was Tropical Storm Ophelia which made a
landfall at Emerald Isle, North Carolina on September 23. With maximum
sustained winds of 70 mph, Ophelia’s widespread heavy rainfall, significant
river and storm surge flooding across eastern North Carolina. She also brought
heavy rainfall to</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">such cities as New York City,
Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">While Hurricane Lee didn’t make a U.S. landfall it was
a close call, Lee formed in early September, soon after he rapidly intensified
into a Category 5 hurricane. After transitioning from a hurricane to a
post-tropical cyclone, Lee made his landfall in western Nova Scotia, Canada, on
September 16. Lee was a large storm with Hurricane-force winds were extending
up to 140 miles from the center of Lee and tropical-storm-force winds were
extending up to 390 miles from the center. Due to his size, Lee’s swells
created high surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Lee’s
strong winds, with gusts to over hurricane strength, caused extensive power
outages in Maine and parts of Canada.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Why the hurricane season was so active?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">When the tropical eastern-central Pacific Ocean is
unusually warm, El Niño can form. During El Niño events, the warm upper-ocean
temperatures change the vertical and east-west atmospheric circulation in the
tropics. That initiates a teleconnection by affecting the east-west winds in
the upper atmosphere throughout the tropics, ultimately resulting in stronger
vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin. That wind shear can tamp down
hurricanes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Typically, during El Nino,</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">the warm upper-ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific change the
vertical and east-west atmospheric circulation in the tropics, which customarily
means sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin tend to be cooler than
average. Also, characteristically El Nino features increased atmospheric
stability and vertical wind shear in the Atlantic; historically all of these
created conditions that hamper storm development in the Atlantic. But as I
showed in the tropical activity storm tracks, 2023 has acted anything but a
typical year with increased storm activity in the main north Atlantic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In general, hurricanes are more likely to form and
intensify when a tropical low-pressure system encounters an environment with
warm upper-ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture in the atmosphere,
instability and weak vertical wind shear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The East Pacific also was very active this year, all
this activity created conditions that favored sinking air over the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and
Caribbean. This was one reason the Caribbean and Gulf we’re extremely quiet during
the season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In the Atlantic, there were three major factors that worked
together that heightened the environment needed to increase the number of
storms.</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, weak wind shear, and
the location and strength of the Azores/Bermuda high.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All three of these things are so intertwined
that they really can’t be described by themselves. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1 Warm Atlantic sea-surface
temperatures:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Atlantic, sea temperatures this summer were unusually
high</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">with record high temperatures which counterbalanced the
strong El Nino. This made it easier for storms to form and develop. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Atlantic went through a series of marine
heatwaves. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNJ3R-8v7UiZvP1eN3wQQ6muDSK7olX49aUmIQI94hmPIKfjglvP2FLe567OCFmD4kwLmEwgJK-up0hLZcElFfGLvzD4NBCwyMTqL3qglNLsQXkrq50ZJeGOlnkMf21AylDUwmX-MppY6YTstsi93fZqks-5v4rgR1_ApflQzCEkVNxxR5AjW6eQewOerH/s935/2023%20sst%20aug%20to%20sept%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="935" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNJ3R-8v7UiZvP1eN3wQQ6muDSK7olX49aUmIQI94hmPIKfjglvP2FLe567OCFmD4kwLmEwgJK-up0hLZcElFfGLvzD4NBCwyMTqL3qglNLsQXkrq50ZJeGOlnkMf21AylDUwmX-MppY6YTstsi93fZqks-5v4rgR1_ApflQzCEkVNxxR5AjW6eQewOerH/s320/2023%20sst%20aug%20to%20sept%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The pattern over the US and Atlantic Basin, played a
big role. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">We had a large heat dome over Central U.S along with a persistent
blocking pattern over the Labrador Sea, Greenland and Iceland.<a name="_Hlk152776842"> This was the reason, for the cooler and wet spring into
summer. </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This high latitude blocking
means that there is higher than average pressure in that region. This also
typically leads to lower-than-average pressure near Bermuda and the Azores,
which was the case this year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2 Azores/Bermuda high:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The Azores/Bermuda sub-tropical high is a pressure
system that sits over the Atlantic in the summer. It acts as a barrier to
hurricanes, and can shift in size and location. Once storms clear the high,
they head north.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzsMcNXfcL1pfhkK0ewtTVM3IDc8LqbyNF-SOXYukYK8-3UwWHkiHGkPcRZD8ooyJfSWXtrYXN1SMtObiSY1l5c1CWVdQYnV6UAZf25hx5xrkUQBpjTAJDNyv55ceCkjuzO_KJ9t9esUK-05ks01KjRF947rLwiSFN25dscelxzChg6TGrFj7GXuiauOVp/s915/2023%20subtropical%20high%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="915" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzsMcNXfcL1pfhkK0ewtTVM3IDc8LqbyNF-SOXYukYK8-3UwWHkiHGkPcRZD8ooyJfSWXtrYXN1SMtObiSY1l5c1CWVdQYnV6UAZf25hx5xrkUQBpjTAJDNyv55ceCkjuzO_KJ9t9esUK-05ks01KjRF947rLwiSFN25dscelxzChg6TGrFj7GXuiauOVp/s320/2023%20subtropical%20high%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Over the hurricane season this subtropical high was weaker
and farther east than average. Both of these things had major impacts on tropical
storm development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A weaker Bermuda/Azores high, means the easterly trade
winds are weaker. Because the trades are weaker, there is much less upwelling
of cooler water from below the surface. As a result, the water keeps warming.
This occurred in a big way in the Main Development Region" of the tropical
Atlantic this season. The tropical Atlantic warmed at a faster rate than ever
before. With the trade winds much weaker than average there was no upwelling so
the water stayed hot much longer than is typical.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3 Wind Shear:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Wind shear over the open Atlantic and Main Development
Region in 2023 was much weaker than is typical during an El Nino. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, the shear was a little stronger over
the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and along the East Coast.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdE4HYwkN9VXLlAcg1XUiKb-gExWymQT3soU_Ykdohv2zwGYPNQWPBPfzzDqL_mVjafZyPlEhqRD1n775ykHVfU0SoZJpdkNIjuDX5wtQTjgedZ88fpl0a_Qux8YfWwitN4EZgtc0FaeF-HkYZqm_OyIgC-nT9SyGv-g82FVeq7Ggv7Hkm0tBBgVZQBLG9/s944/2023%20zonal%20flow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="944" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdE4HYwkN9VXLlAcg1XUiKb-gExWymQT3soU_Ykdohv2zwGYPNQWPBPfzzDqL_mVjafZyPlEhqRD1n775ykHVfU0SoZJpdkNIjuDX5wtQTjgedZ88fpl0a_Qux8YfWwitN4EZgtc0FaeF-HkYZqm_OyIgC-nT9SyGv-g82FVeq7Ggv7Hkm0tBBgVZQBLG9/s320/2023%20zonal%20flow.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">wind shear refers to the variation in wind speed and
direction with height in the atmosphere. For the 2023 hurricane season wind
shear was generally strong near the East Coast and generally weaker out over
the open Atlantic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">For a tropical system to develop and strengthen, wind
shear needs to be low. The higher the wind shear, the more difficult it is for
a tropical system to organize and strengthen. Generally speaking, you want wind
shear to be less than 20 kt for a system to develop. Higher than that the wind
shear disrupts the structure of tropical storms. For rapid intensification to
occur you want the wind shear to be 10 kt or less.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The weaker easterly winds kept Saharan Dust to a
minimum during the season. With there being much less dust than average over
the north Atlantic, more of the Sun’s energy reached the surface of the Ocean.
All of these factors led to the Atlantic Basin seeing record breaking ocean
water temperatures. And allowed the Atlantic to more or less overrule the
influence from the strong El Nino in the Pacific.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">While Atmospheric and Ocean conditions over the
Atlantic Basin allowed for higher amounts of tropical cyclones in spite of El
Nino. There was one El Nino influence that impacted the Atlantic Basin. That
would be steering currents over the Atlantic Basin. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The placement and weakness of the subtropical high setup
and environment allowed storms to turn north into the open Atlantic well
before reaching the U.S. or even the Caribbean. So, storms like Category 5 Lee
and Category 4 Hurricane Franklin veered away from the U.S. mainland. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">If the Bermuda high had been strong and farther
this summer, storms would have made it into western Atlantic, with the likely
outcome of more U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuQZTUGZDs1-c-pkvKsyUblPgAJAE0G3DSB-1xKu8Hafvuz7nI9MZ5qsyojmWFguw6k10JSHE-NyxVFrIO8QjDqqx_CWU_opUCGypKeRyRfCLQbMjgOkOIequtn8sMKeLv9-5IETHJypRiM71FVU2687QamuTk_VKW4iEupEV0HXvc_ReCjCjA-7K5f5dq/s1109/2023%20hurricane%20season%20500mb%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1109" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuQZTUGZDs1-c-pkvKsyUblPgAJAE0G3DSB-1xKu8Hafvuz7nI9MZ5qsyojmWFguw6k10JSHE-NyxVFrIO8QjDqqx_CWU_opUCGypKeRyRfCLQbMjgOkOIequtn8sMKeLv9-5IETHJypRiM71FVU2687QamuTk_VKW4iEupEV0HXvc_ReCjCjA-7K5f5dq/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20500mb%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBghwInfl78a5w3SG0dYv8v4S3SQP1E07qYHQCtEEixEtbwDjnx5aUG9x6zouoKnmAITnUihjneqSzcmpKCZoxiqYu-tM6QN81SExhBl8vcJsZuctVuVB8jKVEkq_R8V_AR2c5png69EPRkauCdta_Pf3-cWVFQ8yHMDIwH7w9aDATpYJRO-b4cKSCWcPU/s1149/2023%20hurricane%20season%20500mb%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1149" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBghwInfl78a5w3SG0dYv8v4S3SQP1E07qYHQCtEEixEtbwDjnx5aUG9x6zouoKnmAITnUihjneqSzcmpKCZoxiqYu-tM6QN81SExhBl8vcJsZuctVuVB8jKVEkq_R8V_AR2c5png69EPRkauCdta_Pf3-cWVFQ8yHMDIwH7w9aDATpYJRO-b4cKSCWcPU/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20500mb%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The arrows on the 500mb show the general direction of the steering flow.<br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The large heat dome ridge over the Plains and the
persistent trough of low pressure in the Northeast was also a player in the
storm track pattern that kept storms out of the GOM and away from the East
Coast. If there had been more in the way of stronger high pressure over the
Northeast into the Midwest, there would have been a better chance for them to
be trapped under the high with no escape to recurve away, increasing the odds of
landfalling systems. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Well, that’s a basic rundown on why the 2023 hurricane
season went the way it did. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-91613984646156453762023-11-20T11:23:00.010-05:002024-01-30T22:26:54.741-05:00The 2023 - 2024 Winter Outlook Part Three.<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The days and
nights are getting colder, most of us have had our killing frost, and some of
us have had our first snow of the early season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So, with the 2023-2024 winter right around the corner, the thought “what
is this winter going to be like?” is growing more and more common across the
region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So that means it’s time for my
Winter Outlook for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of y’all look forward to what could be
instore, where I combine a bit of science with pinch of conjecture and a
spoonful of past patterns that were similar, and try to come up with the
general weather patterns for the coming winter season, trying to show the
overall temperature possibilities along with potential snowfall in store for
the region. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The last few
winters have been lackluster to say the least, many snow lovers would likely
say they have been complete disasters. The Northeast has many businesses and
communities that rely on winter snowfall for economic wellbeing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the idea of a strong El Nino that will
impact this upcoming winter, many winter lovers are feeling very antsy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Parts one
and two laid the groundwork for part three. Part three will go into the El Nino
a little bit more, along with some of the different ENSO indexes. I will cover
on how the snow extent and ice coverage have been progressing. I will also talk
about the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO. Lastly, I will try to go into the
temperature, precipitation, snowfall amounts, and the storm tracks we could
see</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If you don't want to read the technical stuff, you can skip to the bottom. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-one.html" target="_blank">Link to part one</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html" target="_blank">Link to part two</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
Surface Temperature anomalies:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggn0HGV2VVt9KganuVcSHlA_DrTm-o9iCdUqgJgLCado-U5BPT-ZNJaaGy8Da2sjk7PKhugwmmrtGX7_dxDhgV6Zb_DDzT5R6Ao_uQk-AQ6SEqEcf0yW_gW_Dd4gLDxv33xCdoQjmvva9GICxEShGl2Ep8mGb3TvcDo-oBavL_zb2TmwAqr9m62MIrGmdv/s1787/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggn0HGV2VVt9KganuVcSHlA_DrTm-o9iCdUqgJgLCado-U5BPT-ZNJaaGy8Da2sjk7PKhugwmmrtGX7_dxDhgV6Zb_DDzT5R6Ao_uQk-AQ6SEqEcf0yW_gW_Dd4gLDxv33xCdoQjmvva9GICxEShGl2Ep8mGb3TvcDo-oBavL_zb2TmwAqr9m62MIrGmdv/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Above is the
latest surface analysis of the global oceans. We can see the marked warm
anomalies of the El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific, reaching over 4 degrees
Celsius. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The well above average water
anomalies also stands out across the Atlantic Basin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The image below,
show SST anomalies in the ENSO region of the equatorial Pacific over the last
two years. The blue box shows the La Nina last year and how ocean temperatures
quickly warmed to become our current El Nino event. The red box shows the forecasted
peak values this El Nino could achieve over the Winter 2023/2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOHYEPEmsNKhxFLnJ30j4Cmx1K4hxlGC78KlrjyprnKOc_J_8YK6KxWFEBZgNBKD6KDtipZp9USFRvrReYvX7m18GUZxVp3W-DqdtjFtiYrNWwviUVqJQZSzwYnukJCwMzK0b1WpA2NyfxWTjsxnoJIrOqAMdqe8Yet6H9bbrwD_8ENO9sxYk5XVaLrY6C/s1176/last%20two%20years%20of%20ocean%20anomalies%20in%20the%20ENSO%20region.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="1176" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOHYEPEmsNKhxFLnJ30j4Cmx1K4hxlGC78KlrjyprnKOc_J_8YK6KxWFEBZgNBKD6KDtipZp9USFRvrReYvX7m18GUZxVp3W-DqdtjFtiYrNWwviUVqJQZSzwYnukJCwMzK0b1WpA2NyfxWTjsxnoJIrOqAMdqe8Yet6H9bbrwD_8ENO9sxYk5XVaLrY6C/s320/last%20two%20years%20of%20ocean%20anomalies%20in%20the%20ENSO%20region.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">ENSO is the
most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate
variability. During El Nino, we typically have a very active subtropical jet
stream and an amplified polar jet stream. With the extended and amplified
subtropical jet with many areas of low pressure moving along it. The southern
U.S. typically sees, several storms with lots of precipitation and cooler
weather. This general pattern can lead to frequent strong Gulf and East Coast
Storms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">You can see
exactly that in the jet stream anomaly forecast below for January 2024. It
shows the typical strong subtropical jet stream over the southern United States
(red).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7tnD0Q9YAB5R4_Ue47ZXzLHS47ptczgmH1XTfCLVV1EsQpcJpnNP2KqSMYrGfkMOAUx72VO73yijdi66a1ZaXZPGVLrkSg3_rj1zrYLfd4devMg7zhlHuDLg2YFJ_hzTIxKaTYLur2UiPbjJlmgVHtJcJxsnglhUf_QNN3B0qnwkSFqNOr2ZSxlpB78P2/s1095/Jan%20Jets.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="1095" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7tnD0Q9YAB5R4_Ue47ZXzLHS47ptczgmH1XTfCLVV1EsQpcJpnNP2KqSMYrGfkMOAUx72VO73yijdi66a1ZaXZPGVLrkSg3_rj1zrYLfd4devMg7zhlHuDLg2YFJ_hzTIxKaTYLur2UiPbjJlmgVHtJcJxsnglhUf_QNN3B0qnwkSFqNOr2ZSxlpB78P2/s320/Jan%20Jets.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">NOAA bases
the phase of ENSO by and large on the Oceanic Nino index (ONI).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The ONI is
based on SST departures from average in the Nino 3.4 region, and is a principal
measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Below is an
image showing the Nino Regions across the equatorial Pacific<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvvcQ4ZvE9HR7O25WjXfUIqta2WXhQBKg8oxYncXPxyrbnlJVmfzV4K6hBWD-ZPPKvfnvcU5UnDSeyLfVJOISt_i_J8Opa4eW6dCoHfVt7q_jqYsiuMnXcLgyJI7FViQa4WjWv147zN6PpuqGKE04WRZ9UPQa-qFXhJIE6sxPB3fXVLXpFXi-Of4o4awlI/s905/Nino%20Region%20SST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="905" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvvcQ4ZvE9HR7O25WjXfUIqta2WXhQBKg8oxYncXPxyrbnlJVmfzV4K6hBWD-ZPPKvfnvcU5UnDSeyLfVJOISt_i_J8Opa4eW6dCoHfVt7q_jqYsiuMnXcLgyJI7FViQa4WjWv147zN6PpuqGKE04WRZ9UPQa-qFXhJIE6sxPB3fXVLXpFXi-Of4o4awlI/s320/Nino%20Region%20SST.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino:
characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">La Nina: characterized
by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">By
historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Nino or La Nina
episode,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">these
thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">3-month
seasons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">CPC
considers El Nino or La Nina conditions to occur when the monthly Nino3.4 OISST<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">departures
meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">anomalies
must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The IRI
multi-model image below show the consensus that El Nino will peak around +2
degrees above normal. That is considered a strong event. But the forecasts also
agree that the El Nino will start to dissolve somewhere towards Summer 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgive-Fv56So4ZwQwoXd4J1OCDf3jNBOzkkmiDAPkd7slNlkP4YTYrN4VfexfizfrkPmvFTQHfao7ylKmFFuYjs4Dk7lUkkDHRsTBAZu6arDAKScFVq5pSqglI4u3dUCMuifo0tIi_ur5d2d1TK0o-CUzcjYlHqgiVVNf_H1hE35As2oMuf_9c69Vt2A6b8/s1035/IRI%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1035" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgive-Fv56So4ZwQwoXd4J1OCDf3jNBOzkkmiDAPkd7slNlkP4YTYrN4VfexfizfrkPmvFTQHfao7ylKmFFuYjs4Dk7lUkkDHRsTBAZu6arDAKScFVq5pSqglI4u3dUCMuifo0tIi_ur5d2d1TK0o-CUzcjYlHqgiVVNf_H1hE35As2oMuf_9c69Vt2A6b8/s320/IRI%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on the
ONI, we’re in a strong El Nino right now, with SST anomalies in Nino 3.4 being
1.8°C above average. We will likely see this peak around 2.0°C, before it
levels off and then drops back toward a moderate El Nino for the 2<sup>nd</sup>
half of winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think this El
Nino will end up as strong as the Super El Nino of 2015 to 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">On the
Facebook weather pages and in past blog post, I’ve talked about ENSO indexes, such
as the SST anomalies like the ONI and Southern Oscillation Index. The ENSO is
the biggest climate driver on the planet, for this reason over the years
several ways have come up to measure it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Besides the SST indexes and SOI, there is the wind
index, outgoing longwave radiation index, and the multivariate ENSO index. Each
of these Indexes have strong points and limitations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I want to focus
on the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The MEI, is
a method used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. Given that ENSO
arises from a complex interaction of a variety of climate systems, MEI is
regarded as the most comprehensive index for monitoring ENSO since it combines
analysis of oceanic and atmospheric variables.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">While NOAA is
showing we’re in a strong El Nino, looking at the MEI images below, we can see
it’s showing more in the way of a weak to moderate El Nino. Since sometimes we
see more cold and snowy conditions during weak to moderate El Nino’s than we typically
do during strong El Nino’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvssRpe2ajq9lKr_l8S4ns7YH4q1oLAGpnZkeYRarQYo4SCM8ndAZN7CpgdXBHWMsA4myTrgQ8rmI5dS9Sfc_6TYpbYIHwIob8LyG1pdyh4Ko9BSmgzUBS3njJwy9GgbrVp1hm1pCDcCNQPHUdil7Y2IdVO1fA_SPbQCehce9EUto2DIAI_cFRjaTGnrn/s884/MEI%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="884" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvssRpe2ajq9lKr_l8S4ns7YH4q1oLAGpnZkeYRarQYo4SCM8ndAZN7CpgdXBHWMsA4myTrgQ8rmI5dS9Sfc_6TYpbYIHwIob8LyG1pdyh4Ko9BSmgzUBS3njJwy9GgbrVp1hm1pCDcCNQPHUdil7Y2IdVO1fA_SPbQCehce9EUto2DIAI_cFRjaTGnrn/s320/MEI%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxBAj4wfDp2jLoZSNbS0FzUcxj84Z_K70stMthAoZLrB974d2TbgdKFvRwc7T03bIZ9F10gzG6uOPZgkOlo_UkD-rqEFW7QCwwbadwl1KjnEwJkxXBI5G5uxryS5LgUiwnobqRrn5QzCi_XyMJoR0UozFwTGcPhbluGvplY2URFb-D4ROgQlFYT8A4EHJx/s1064/MEI%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="1064" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxBAj4wfDp2jLoZSNbS0FzUcxj84Z_K70stMthAoZLrB974d2TbgdKFvRwc7T03bIZ9F10gzG6uOPZgkOlo_UkD-rqEFW7QCwwbadwl1KjnEwJkxXBI5G5uxryS5LgUiwnobqRrn5QzCi_XyMJoR0UozFwTGcPhbluGvplY2URFb-D4ROgQlFYT8A4EHJx/s320/MEI%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The way the
atmosphere is responding to El Nino, is supporting what the MEI is showing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">In part one
and two, I talked about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic
Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">As I’ve said, The ENSO isn’t the only deciding
teleconnection, as other factors have to also be factored in.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here in the
Northeast, the actual correlation from the impact of El Nino is very weak, when
compared to many other places. So, it’s very problematic to say El Nino will
produce this or that kind of impact here in the Northeast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, while the El Nino could likely override
the other contributing factors in other parts of the U.S. Here in the Northeast
El Nino, might not rule the roost. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the Northeast our snowfall potential is often driven by the NAO, AO, and
other teleconnections including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In the
previous parts I went into NAO, AO and the PDO. The factors I laid out are still
valid. But I do what to talk a bit on the QBO. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The QBO, is
another teleconnection that is a prime driver of global climate. The QBO is
winds in the stratosphere 15km to 50km over our heads. As with all
teleconnections the QBO has two phases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>An easterly (negative) phase, when the winds in the stratosphere blow in
an easterly direction, and a westerly (positive) phase when the stratospheric
winds blow in a westerly direction. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
QBO is very predictable with the phase changes occurring about every 14 months.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The QBO influences
the strength of the polar vortex. When the QBO is in a positive phase, the odds
for a strong polar vortex increases. During the negative phase the chances increase
for the polar vortex to be weaker, increasing the likelihood for some cold air
intrusions into the U.S. When the QBO is easterly, there is a better chance for
the AO and NAO to be generally negative.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Currently
the QBO is negative, this will increase the odds for high latitude blocking
along with a better chance for polar vortex disruptions, increasing the odds
for cold air incursions during this winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Eurasian
Snow Extent:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In part two,
I said, Eurasian Snow cover was below average over Siberia. Since then, more
snow as fallen over Siberia. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcv6I7vou5Er0qhZw-9BAabWoA63XKCkN1RVv4vtnurmON95qZ1EYuWzrGQAVr1EMXmXegfl2Jt-F3Nmae0-d3hqERv4h-CLThDiatkjZnXpMmR2w7t-UY2ukNUUYj9yirfMYlrUxWY1EvEpMgeKHNVImArIE6iSsQXcnsq21Uv7uBbgMF6Atq6ntgXqKV/s763/snow%20extent%20map%201a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="763" data-original-width="691" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcv6I7vou5Er0qhZw-9BAabWoA63XKCkN1RVv4vtnurmON95qZ1EYuWzrGQAVr1EMXmXegfl2Jt-F3Nmae0-d3hqERv4h-CLThDiatkjZnXpMmR2w7t-UY2ukNUUYj9yirfMYlrUxWY1EvEpMgeKHNVImArIE6iSsQXcnsq21Uv7uBbgMF6Atq6ntgXqKV/s320/snow%20extent%20map%201a.jpg" width="290" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’ve placed
a box on the Rutgers Snow Extent map, showing the area in Eurasia where we’re
concerned with in Siberia. There is a color scale that shows how much above or
below average snowfall extent is. The coral tones show where snow cover is below
average; whereas, the blue tones show where snow cover is above average. Looking
at the map, we can see most of that area is colored in a light shade of blue,
which indicates snow extent in Eurasia is slightly above average for this time
of year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVj0PZdKo21PKL8phKjKkl3XO-M4OW0TZiA8jC-is_ixkpwUE9haK0YV8xs8KoYLI36drCWh8W2mOg-5gHbFWwD6GMGEFA0uCZGEA6FTuNhMDvEuWEWHXOyrWdvVZ_SweiIGJanzq6bcAgMWc3M-apAJnBwcmHsHM6UKjq7RDORMR_PgA-D09x-rLGSU1K/s930/snow%20extent%20map%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="930" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVj0PZdKo21PKL8phKjKkl3XO-M4OW0TZiA8jC-is_ixkpwUE9haK0YV8xs8KoYLI36drCWh8W2mOg-5gHbFWwD6GMGEFA0uCZGEA6FTuNhMDvEuWEWHXOyrWdvVZ_SweiIGJanzq6bcAgMWc3M-apAJnBwcmHsHM6UKjq7RDORMR_PgA-D09x-rLGSU1K/s320/snow%20extent%20map%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Chart
from 1967 to 2023 is also showing snow cover is just slightly above average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Snow cover is indicating a slightly better
chance for a colder and more in the way of snowy winter in the Northeast and
Middle Atlantic. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As we saw last winter,
snowfall was well below average across the region. When we look at the chart,
we can see the snow extent was even lower last winter than now. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><a name="_Hlk151301457"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea Ice:</span></b></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk151301457;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTYrWqJjSm6KXVIoBkNJ5vU9HZLOJIhyphenhyphen1arDgyVa2_TlHmKq9DOkU6OQJ2ORowuZxhPc8UkBHR7n-A-UUFKKmT8hsAI04lYmwDK0X6wtbm4xbdmm1lxevu5hNtGsdVUWHfC-ZtKoJCqRDuHTN1e3oybD3rRw0zIPZwHdsMMzJ-Bu25Gs5UJFtmr7DZCKXr/s856/ice%20extent%20map%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="718" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTYrWqJjSm6KXVIoBkNJ5vU9HZLOJIhyphenhyphen1arDgyVa2_TlHmKq9DOkU6OQJ2ORowuZxhPc8UkBHR7n-A-UUFKKmT8hsAI04lYmwDK0X6wtbm4xbdmm1lxevu5hNtGsdVUWHfC-ZtKoJCqRDuHTN1e3oybD3rRw0zIPZwHdsMMzJ-Bu25Gs5UJFtmr7DZCKXr/s320/ice%20extent%20map%201.jpg" width="268" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbkCbs-Mtxc3lcA6FzU1qNEF1FWmo64F6_ZYffdJ3fqjIYvldNttV32paOlInN8npTWkj7644xfa-9rP-bEE0V6eYwGpN69M8t271HCsrNLVemj4-3vgWNG7ffvphAhhK7R7NiFWhENghuRdU-prQWM1I9nb5pWSHn47J5n9Io25G0R-pzbscSicy64CVu/s916/ice%20extent%20map%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="728" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbkCbs-Mtxc3lcA6FzU1qNEF1FWmo64F6_ZYffdJ3fqjIYvldNttV32paOlInN8npTWkj7644xfa-9rP-bEE0V6eYwGpN69M8t271HCsrNLVemj4-3vgWNG7ffvphAhhK7R7NiFWhENghuRdU-prQWM1I9nb5pWSHn47J5n9Io25G0R-pzbscSicy64CVu/s320/ice%20extent%20map%202.jpg" width="254" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQqG-BZzfcCPxQBd3ZE4tG0sjZ99___PnGMTqcqzajWF1uGZGJ_nqCYD3LiIEZoaC0JRbdyuTfyx0aXcs_YunlHPNHTBMeoMWSYITIEHPx6yi3NzdJ9um-2b_2obm2GEAdEHwU4kO4mDLOijEFNhH5GhTnED6qdjoZ-I2RXbXtEFOCZlAl4xZempIiyqtp/s1068/ice%20extent%20map%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1068" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQqG-BZzfcCPxQBd3ZE4tG0sjZ99___PnGMTqcqzajWF1uGZGJ_nqCYD3LiIEZoaC0JRbdyuTfyx0aXcs_YunlHPNHTBMeoMWSYITIEHPx6yi3NzdJ9um-2b_2obm2GEAdEHwU4kO4mDLOijEFNhH5GhTnED6qdjoZ-I2RXbXtEFOCZlAl4xZempIiyqtp/s320/ice%20extent%20map%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 14pt;">On the map
from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, I’ve placed a red box over the Barents-Kara
Sea. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The map shows the sea ice extent that
is monitored for possible influences on our winter weather. We can see that well
over half of the area is ice free. The Charts show Ice extent is well below
average</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Some
meteorologist (myself included) thinks the less sea ice over the Barents-Kara
Sea, the more likely the chance for the polar vortex to be weaker, increasing
the likelihood for cold air intrusions into the U.S. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">OK let’s get
into the Maps and Idea’s I have for the 2023-2024 winter.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperature
Outlook for Winter 2023-24:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Even though El
Nino’s impact here in the Northeast is a bit tricky, it does produce general
impacts. In general, we expect temperatures to run milder than average in
moderate to strong El Nino winters.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikC6hkXODEDLPz9IvQDs_cEz3Oy9XOX06IWyXlBr1OTc0W_VUTD0P_YXJb6uVLYI4vAHhaYHXrz38AYJKnCoJDs6eYQkVF9SOuoI176W-a2A1MpkH-7_TFb45-I1kEs-r_Dn4FduPfVDeJrkZPx2M8YI6ZiPI8H3eayGkgLdv0C7Vtiwq_QkiHlwvPUDRG/s967/temperature%20outlook%20for%20winter%201a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="967" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikC6hkXODEDLPz9IvQDs_cEz3Oy9XOX06IWyXlBr1OTc0W_VUTD0P_YXJb6uVLYI4vAHhaYHXrz38AYJKnCoJDs6eYQkVF9SOuoI176W-a2A1MpkH-7_TFb45-I1kEs-r_Dn4FduPfVDeJrkZPx2M8YI6ZiPI8H3eayGkgLdv0C7Vtiwq_QkiHlwvPUDRG/s320/temperature%20outlook%20for%20winter%201a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on
the data I’ve shown, this isn’t likely to be a downright frigid winter.
But we will see cold air outbreaks that extend southward out of Canada from
time to time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Eastern
Canada is going to end up with overall below average temperatures -1°F to -3°F.
So sometimes we will see cold air outbreaks into the Northeast depending on the
timing we could end up with a few major nor’easters.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Around the
Great Lakes and far Northern New York State and Northern New England
temperatures look to be overall above average<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">From
Pittsburgh up through the Finger Lakes, Central New York State, Northern Hudson
Valley, Northern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire into Central Maine,
temperatures look to be slightly above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For Central Pennsylvania,
Central Hudson Valley, Central New England, and Southern Maine will end up with
overall average temperatures, +1°F to -1<a name="_Hlk150719674">°F</a> for the
winter. Southern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey will end up below
average -2°F to -3°F. With the Southeast being well below average temperatures
-3°F to -4°F<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The upper
Great Lakes look to be +2°F to +3°F above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Storm
Track Analysis</span> </b><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">for
Winter 2023-24:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwr9VRjkW1hAw9VH0Gci5CIKKv_T9tOK5AWgKsKairnPvvncVL-Q_l3-l8RAp6mpjcsaDXi0v0gjFfJj_GRc7zLWWEkPpvI5rY-XWQU1qaFoYgQ4Ai85pPxvvoNPWuvLP4GyNgaGV_InAEpOLSjc94vli-mv6RPLVAOVvmKLwd-NNtXdQuFcODN68eBKqe/s927/North%20America%20Map%20jets%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="927" data-original-width="789" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwr9VRjkW1hAw9VH0Gci5CIKKv_T9tOK5AWgKsKairnPvvncVL-Q_l3-l8RAp6mpjcsaDXi0v0gjFfJj_GRc7zLWWEkPpvI5rY-XWQU1qaFoYgQ4Ai85pPxvvoNPWuvLP4GyNgaGV_InAEpOLSjc94vli-mv6RPLVAOVvmKLwd-NNtXdQuFcODN68eBKqe/s320/North%20America%20Map%20jets%201.jpg" width="272" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The southern
subtropical jet is going to stay very active, with a lot of Pacific Moisture
moving along it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There will
be frigid air north of the polar Jet<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We will have
disturbances moving along a fairly active polar Jet. The northern Jet is going
to be bouncing around a bit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The highly
amplified and extended subtropical Jet, will support moisture across the southern
U.S. The low pressure that will move across the southern U.S. Bringing snowfall
across the Southeast. Some of these storms will move up the East Coast,
increasing the odds for snowfall across the Middle Atlantic and perhaps
Southern New England. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The polar
jet is going to be to be just north of the Northeast. Given the pattern that is
looking to setup, there is increased chances for sudden stratospheric warming
events, that will lead to disruptions in the polar vortex, increasing the odds
for cold air intrusions into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Given proper
timing, there will be snowfall opportunities, especially from Mid-Winter into
March.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The image
below shows the general pressure pattern during past El Nino events. It shows
low pressure over the North Pacific, strong high pressure over Canada and lesser
high pressure over the North Atlantic near Greenland. It also shows the low-pressure
storm track over the southern U.S. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEWU1i5PKjR48iX-HihS2y56lmHY8k-YpFf1EqjCMgb-GFbQIKlZ6wf2Q_aOpdkUa_yuTGXUdiZCkkktxZ77TZaoBlS37KDuMFUMsX-56v68gRT86ndPX_qmTzGaJuaCzpqW15rFyAVaxT8EkrtjMaTBivFmYTEuBOrQU6bI4p6Ygxco2UzjdNyM7-gqWa/s1100/El%20Nino%20pressure%20pattern%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="1100" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEWU1i5PKjR48iX-HihS2y56lmHY8k-YpFf1EqjCMgb-GFbQIKlZ6wf2Q_aOpdkUa_yuTGXUdiZCkkktxZ77TZaoBlS37KDuMFUMsX-56v68gRT86ndPX_qmTzGaJuaCzpqW15rFyAVaxT8EkrtjMaTBivFmYTEuBOrQU6bI4p6Ygxco2UzjdNyM7-gqWa/s320/El%20Nino%20pressure%20pattern%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The pattern
will support several snowfall opportunities for the Northeast and Middle
Atlantic, we’ve already seeing several coastal storms this fall. So, Miller A
and Miller B northeasters could be quite possible during this upcoming winter. While
we will most likely see some lake cutters, I don’t think that will be the
predominate storm track like we saw last winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Given those
extremely warm SST in the Atlantic, if we have some cold that drops down from
the Arctic, the warm SST could help support a strengthening coastal low. the
greater the temperature gradient the stronger the potential of the nor'easter.
Depending on the track this setup would also be capable of producing influence
of a cold conveyor belt, which would help set up zones of heavier snow. Warm
SST's during December can work against big snowstorms, but during the 2nd half
of the winter, those warm SST can be a snow lovers’ best friend.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation
Outlook <a name="_Hlk151331182">for Winter 2023-24</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsx4poXykOf6qXpKdll9v8M_PqzWltYNpcig2Fxl8hGTVatQlDnoQMvF3W7gEq3RnGoYL7CUYKrKlFKKVUcArFYAEVTUXojuKzLzuqCZjOLiQdR4EewfPDACx_mOt7_XJgPavl4Q9efNdMlth28HhbLL1Vkb9DCwAxXn7ZDyyCTVDiCs41nc0Yznn7MOr1/s967/Precipation%20outlook%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="967" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsx4poXykOf6qXpKdll9v8M_PqzWltYNpcig2Fxl8hGTVatQlDnoQMvF3W7gEq3RnGoYL7CUYKrKlFKKVUcArFYAEVTUXojuKzLzuqCZjOLiQdR4EewfPDACx_mOt7_XJgPavl4Q9efNdMlth28HhbLL1Vkb9DCwAxXn7ZDyyCTVDiCs41nc0Yznn7MOr1/s320/Precipation%20outlook%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Rain, sleet,
freezing rain, and snow<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Southern and
eastern Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and the Central Hudson Valley,
across central New England into southern Maine look to see of generally 10% above
average precipitation While Southeast New England, New Jersey, Southeast
Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware end up generally 20% above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Great
Lakes, northwest Pennsylvania and western New York State look to see slightly
below average precipitation at -10% <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The rest of
New York State and northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine
ending up with generally average overall precipitation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Snowfall
Outlook for Winter 2023-24:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHWgpMLU3Kzj6rSKM3_ndpLhDBzDZP34LEHslUzwlmkYAMSUNQXTFulDb-sFc0-Of1HYBS2Uj1IvGRLFoPN18FeAwUzm7rAtbYnXfJgabYRINdny00OAxEdCPvMoFQf6_hRgp077mdgXm0QmCM6ZNdknWYcYQBoc5lcMeyKHGiTzXTHfBQ1JIYvybQy6mZ/s967/Snowfall%20outlook%20for%20the%20winter%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="967" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHWgpMLU3Kzj6rSKM3_ndpLhDBzDZP34LEHslUzwlmkYAMSUNQXTFulDb-sFc0-Of1HYBS2Uj1IvGRLFoPN18FeAwUzm7rAtbYnXfJgabYRINdny00OAxEdCPvMoFQf6_hRgp077mdgXm0QmCM6ZNdknWYcYQBoc5lcMeyKHGiTzXTHfBQ1JIYvybQy6mZ/s320/Snowfall%20outlook%20for%20the%20winter%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These
snowfall amounts are overall general ideas for the Northeast and Middle
Atlantic for this winter. I base this on the general teleconnection pattern and
what I anticipate to be the general storm tracks. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As for how
much snow we should expect this winter, well, specific numbers are hard to nail
down but with a weak to moderate El Nino in the picture, along with the pattern
I describe above, I see support for an above average snowfall season for Southern
New England, Southeast New York State (including New York City and Long Island
into the Middle Atlantic, With the area around the Appalachian’s ending up as
the jackpot, with good odds for well above average snowfall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Slightly
above average snowfall for most of Northern New England into Northwest Massachusetts,
Hudson Valley and the Catskills, along with the Twin Tiers of New York State
and Pennsylvania, back through most of Western Pennsylvania<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Northern and
Central New York State and the Adirondacks into Northern Vermont, looks to see
near average snowfall. Northwest Pennsylvania away from Lake Erie could also
see average snowfall. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Slightly
below average lake effect snows off of Lake Erie. With around average lake snow
off of Lake Ontario. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A general
look month by month:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">December:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Past
Thanksgiving into the first week of December is looking to generally be below
average, then we should see some warming, resulting in slightly above to above
average temperatures up through the time around mid-month, then we look to see general temperatures become slightly below to below average for the end of December. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Overall
temperatures should generally end up fairly mild with above average for the month of
December.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Snowfall…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For the
month I expect generally slightly below average snowfall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">January:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">January is
going to continue to see the up and down temperature roller coaster. The month could
start slightly below average. Then there would be the chance for temperatures
to warm back up near average to above average, before falling back to average
to below average during the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of January. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The subtropical
jet, will stay active during the month. We could see many of the southern
storms head out to sea; but we could see a few of these storms come up the
coast. While Western Pennsylvania up through Western New York State, see
generally below average snowfall, for Eastern Pennsylvania the rest of New York
State into New England see generally average snowfall typically for the month
of January. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">February:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The last
half of the winter, is likely going to be colder and snowier than the first
half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>February as a whole should see Western
parts of the region with slightly below average overall temperatures. The temperatures
across Northern into Central New York State and the Northern half of New
England, end up with overall temperatures near average, Southern New England,
back through Southeast New York State, Eastern Pennsylvania, and the Middle
Atlantic should see below average temperatures. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on this
being an El Nino winter and climatology, February should end up a big snow
month. The Southern and Northern jets should stay active. During past El Nino’s,
nor’easters are common off the Coast. So, I will be very surprised if we don’t
see at least a couple big coastal storms come up the coast, bringing snow
across the Eastern half of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New York
State along with New England. As we saw during the Super El Nino of 2015-2016,
Coastal storms can bring significant snowfall into the Middle Atlantic and
Northeast, even during El Nino years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As far as snowfall,
Western New York State, and Western Pennsylvania should generally see slightly
above average snowfall With Central into Eastern Pennsylvania and New York
State seeing above average snowfall, with possibly well above average snowfall
for the Middle Atlantic into Southern and perhaps Eastern New England. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">March:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures
should be overall above average in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region,
especially during the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of the Month. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With generally below average snowfall across Western
Pennsylvania and Western New York State, with average to slightly below average
snowfall over Eastern Pennsylvania, Eastern New York State, into the Middle
Atlantic and New England. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Closing
thoughts:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Remember seasonal
outlooks are deterministic in nature, so with the overall idea of randomness in
mind, different outcomes are always possible. Afterall the law of averages,
insist that everything must level out, so these different outputs are expected.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This winter
is going to see wild swings between warm and cold temperatures, So snowfall is
going to depend on the overall pressure pattern and the timing of the individual
storms. So, get ready for a wild ride. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Also with the temperature going back and forth, it will be more difficult to develop a deep snowpack. So while snowfall may indeed end up above average, we might not see long lasting snow banks. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that’s
it<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I hope you
found this multipart outlook interesting and educational. As always, I can’t
answer questions about the outlook from other outlets. But I will always answer
all y’all’s questions in regards to my outlooks and forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-46581185859184678852023-10-27T15:44:00.023-04:002024-02-23T14:47:04.600-05:002023 2024 winter outlook part two <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Part two
will cover what this year’s tropical activity can tell us, snow cover in
Siberia, and talk about some of the teleconnections like the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">To read part
one follow this <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-one.html" target="_blank">link</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I've been working on this and trying to figure out the best way to present it in the most concise straightforward and easy to understand format. Which is far from an easy task. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’ve tried
to take a balanced approach to what I’m seeing this year. Remember a winter
outlook is an overview of what the entire winter season should feature. This
outlook isn’t going to cover storm details on snow amounts or track, it will feature
a broad overlook of the general pattern we will likely see at times during this
winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies… <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEaF8w0OQLuFR6aNJmhwlTeGhc8lI9Ve1KOT2st2SoxVY6jLkt-bMjRepzIY2PC9236gguGhy1-9eJPnx33E7a5anUoBFnY2m0zo9TgKhp3MtZFBVWwgKe5mAtelt9F_OoGEl3IMtAhSpNReXmLGYZcFr7cz_BBD7SOWjgQk3-ql_pIcEn2slbW8BMHJ2q/s1787/global%20sst%2027%20oct.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEaF8w0OQLuFR6aNJmhwlTeGhc8lI9Ve1KOT2st2SoxVY6jLkt-bMjRepzIY2PC9236gguGhy1-9eJPnx33E7a5anUoBFnY2m0zo9TgKhp3MtZFBVWwgKe5mAtelt9F_OoGEl3IMtAhSpNReXmLGYZcFr7cz_BBD7SOWjgQk3-ql_pIcEn2slbW8BMHJ2q/s320/global%20sst%2027%20oct.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Teleconnections:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Our
atmosphere is very fluid. These fluid properties are constantly changing over
time and location. What’s going on over one part of the Planet has a downstream
impact somewhere else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A deepening
ridge, means a trough must dig. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
weather patterns in other parts of the world are called teleconnections. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During the
winter, changes in the phases of certain teleconnections can produce conditions
favorable for a cold and snowy pattern in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region.
Besides the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) the other teleconnections we
generally look at are the Artic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Pacific Oscillation
(EPO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and
Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk149225513"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…<o:p></o:p></span></b></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149225513;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">One of the
winter major forecast factors to look at in the late fall/winter is
the state of the ENSO. The ENSO is a fluctuating weather pattern
around the equator in the Pacific. The cool negative phase is called La Nina where
we see cooler than average sea-surface temperatures equatorial Pacific, the
warm positive phase is called El Nino where we see warmer than average
sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Part, one talks about how this years ENSO and the
developing El Nino are shaping up. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG6D93pUL0xKLNHsoZVd7uLV88FHSrD7z9N8Xt99n6v2kV3iIv70fC9FlCoWIeXfyLFbfxpc0MQzHQixAgrIN7P0IAMa5QQH_0-cUbp-CPHL0n1pCZaD9MdzoLCsAacKkLpf-tS_-lAshIhF9eYWmFO5R2C-LEzcFprnRd1byn6fpKXCWREt4UejsEnj_1/s955/enso%20current.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="955" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG6D93pUL0xKLNHsoZVd7uLV88FHSrD7z9N8Xt99n6v2kV3iIv70fC9FlCoWIeXfyLFbfxpc0MQzHQixAgrIN7P0IAMa5QQH_0-cUbp-CPHL0n1pCZaD9MdzoLCsAacKkLpf-tS_-lAshIhF9eYWmFO5R2C-LEzcFprnRd1byn6fpKXCWREt4UejsEnj_1/s320/enso%20current.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQ3BSIYVS_irzYmiqw4vMzEtP6__js4usL3ckZafllNOjW-eZXhIXUWBnkkE58npxgr8Rqbll6XJ13mhkIM-GVNNMKbyjgpMH_8GdOU2_7wgheA49N1D52ORKpBgrSd8CB3zywARzRnWFvl56QwJaIoRPKY5izVgqx6a-McN_bkacX1cI4b_CL-VrC-nm/s959/enso%20current%20subsurface%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="959" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQ3BSIYVS_irzYmiqw4vMzEtP6__js4usL3ckZafllNOjW-eZXhIXUWBnkkE58npxgr8Rqbll6XJ13mhkIM-GVNNMKbyjgpMH_8GdOU2_7wgheA49N1D52ORKpBgrSd8CB3zywARzRnWFvl56QwJaIoRPKY5izVgqx6a-McN_bkacX1cI4b_CL-VrC-nm/s320/enso%20current%20subsurface%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2GaBO6CfzimKD4-w5VY0lfiGxCHndMUOY7uNp1_4X1cmahgAdpe3oUZbSToOZFvthZH0BprcawtBHYFeo96M-reoPfweDILGAXT7ID_wtJUO8Vk_0dTEIHu1niT7aDFkAWGz4Mba2_I5YnSRDgPUpxbk5OXHBnWEkKBHYqqm67FmxsSnkmxRs1uxUIWcn/s1088/enso%20current%20iri%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1088" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2GaBO6CfzimKD4-w5VY0lfiGxCHndMUOY7uNp1_4X1cmahgAdpe3oUZbSToOZFvthZH0BprcawtBHYFeo96M-reoPfweDILGAXT7ID_wtJUO8Vk_0dTEIHu1niT7aDFkAWGz4Mba2_I5YnSRDgPUpxbk5OXHBnWEkKBHYqqm67FmxsSnkmxRs1uxUIWcn/s320/enso%20current%20iri%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A lot of
people including many meteorologists are placing a lot of importance on this El
Nino and how it may be a Super El Nino. But while a moderate to strong El Nino
is likely; we could fall short of super El Nino status. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This isn’t
going to be a normal El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Strong El
Nino’s<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1957-58,1965-66,1973-74,82-83,1991-92,1997-98,2009-10,-2015-16<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During El
Nino we typically see a less-active, west-to-east storm track across the
northern US. The subtropical Jet stream is also typically quite active. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Why was
the Atlantic tropical season so active?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We had
recorded warm water.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But the
shear didn’t tear them apart as much<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Could it be
due to the placement of that shear?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The warm
water in the Indian Ocean<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> (</span>a positive
IOD) is one major reason. Another reason is the record warmth in the Atlantic Basin.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, we got a
lot of convection (rising air) around Africa and a lot of subsidence (sinking
air) around the South Pacific Islands, that helps displace a lot of the lifting.
So, we had rising air near and around Africa and lifting air over the Eastern
into Central Atlantic. But we had sinking air in the Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico, so we didn't see much development in a large part of the Caribbean and GOM. The warm Atlantic overruled El Nino conditions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
South America is very wet during an El Nino. But this year South America is experiencing
major drought<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, it looks
like the warm water around the Equatorial regions, shifted El Nino’s influence
east, resulting in a very active 2023 hurricane season.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We also have to look at the northern Pacific…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The <a name="_Hlk149225588">Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The PDO deals with sea surface temperature anomalies
over the Northern Pacific (north of 20° north latitude), as with all
teleconnections it has a positive and negative phase. These phases typically
last for decades. The PDO represents the oceans response to the atmosphere. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this way it is a prime driver for low
pressure systems in the north Pacific, for example the Aleutian low-pressure
system in the Gulf of Alaska. Depending on how strong this low is, it will have
a different impact on wind flow, and the pressure gradient. If the Aleutian Low
is very strong, we tend to see a stronger southernly flow along the immediate
West Coast.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBfhPyxRXlDRUuhJYq-vDTb_jkbBo3osKqqj3kqguzzKarI5Blc4Kh3IQ2KZzNsTqPiWnCDTvw6lqmw2tSeV-xtVweqYQ3CiVoJUn0BJDMP5LAp8k-fJviji-Q4fFhLz95tPKVZ77d6K0v_0jF2EdAN93pKGy9ktDCH2yz9lvT3G7_p86rMKyCDdOylHIC/s1411/PDO%20phases.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1411" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBfhPyxRXlDRUuhJYq-vDTb_jkbBo3osKqqj3kqguzzKarI5Blc4Kh3IQ2KZzNsTqPiWnCDTvw6lqmw2tSeV-xtVweqYQ3CiVoJUn0BJDMP5LAp8k-fJviji-Q4fFhLz95tPKVZ77d6K0v_0jF2EdAN93pKGy9ktDCH2yz9lvT3G7_p86rMKyCDdOylHIC/s320/PDO%20phases.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The positive
phase is characterized by cool SSTs north of Hawaii and warmer than average
SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of North America. The
negative phase we see the opposite, warmer than average SSTs north of Hawaii and
cooler than average SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of
North America.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During the positive
phase the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is more likely to experience overall below
average temperatures <a name="_Hlk149059982">for December, January and February</a>.
During the negative phase the opposite is true, with the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast likely to experience overall above average temperatures for December,
January and February. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO has
been negative for the last several winters. But the last couple of months has
seeing it quickly moving towards neutral after being negative for the last four
straight years. The last time this setup occurred was during the Fall of 2002.
The winter that followed was a very decent winter snow wise here in the
Northeast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, while
this is theoretically a negative PDO. it really isn’t a textbook negative
PDO. During a typical negative PDO the water is much colder in the Gulf of
Alaska and west coast of Alaska, the cold water would also typically extend
down into the Pacific Northwest. So, while the water is cooler it isn’t as cold
as you would expect to see during a negative PDO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO
and the Pacific North American Pattern (PN<span style="text-transform: uppercase;">A)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There is a direct
correlation link between the PDO and the PNA. During the winter the correlation
is greater than 0.80. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PNA is
closely related to the strength of the Aleutian Low and the strength of the PDO<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PNA for
our purposes here, is the PNA is the main driver of the trough ridge pattern over
North America <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinuatzImnmC-Zlqaj0loiXbI6fCHPAGHfBnSwuxPGUMdKUQzz8FEGAAcIFvtw7Wg1dkujf6lbsBIlRMZ3vQWXyfUSdqskHO0XMuW4nGzJMwQpQVwQN70oAWCKiC1y4A4xkN8t-RSjtNkFSLreUVbnX-gf_aWPFEwYUsppYMvx6MI4JVnhRjhniaqHzjWLO/s671/PNA%20positive%20and%20positive%20PDO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="671" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinuatzImnmC-Zlqaj0loiXbI6fCHPAGHfBnSwuxPGUMdKUQzz8FEGAAcIFvtw7Wg1dkujf6lbsBIlRMZ3vQWXyfUSdqskHO0XMuW4nGzJMwQpQVwQN70oAWCKiC1y4A4xkN8t-RSjtNkFSLreUVbnX-gf_aWPFEwYUsppYMvx6MI4JVnhRjhniaqHzjWLO/s320/PNA%20positive%20and%20positive%20PDO%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivfm5zhk2_CxRU1GhEmG-dww-vpM0JKwILMyLQOQyTqzcww5l_7SIbgiZiSV3kftV-zonl5Z5S-a-0bd3VVFkrrifJbCficwu1HrAqFHnTVze4CBhm7RfwRu8PefMzMWwu9PKHRY2WPGENix2beYvaiEoGUhK6-5D7Qym5wuUg0aXRVhYoLdlkAKJ2h0oY/s841/PNA%20and%20PDO%20negative%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="841" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivfm5zhk2_CxRU1GhEmG-dww-vpM0JKwILMyLQOQyTqzcww5l_7SIbgiZiSV3kftV-zonl5Z5S-a-0bd3VVFkrrifJbCficwu1HrAqFHnTVze4CBhm7RfwRu8PefMzMWwu9PKHRY2WPGENix2beYvaiEoGUhK6-5D7Qym5wuUg0aXRVhYoLdlkAKJ2h0oY/s320/PNA%20and%20PDO%20negative%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">During a negative
PNA there typically is more overall upper level troughing over the western U.S
leading to cooler and wetter conditions, while the eastern U.S. is more likely
to see overall ridging leading to drier and warmer conditions. During a positive
PNA the eastern U.S. sees more in the way of troughing while the western U.S. sees
more in the way of ridging. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq0Yi5wWlqOLVURr77L1RzCMLqwVrdOpV9BywcHBCGhyphenhyphen9hSzQ1TACikYytSQ4dIiumYxMk3nHYWpQ27vKZYPrpoz6poqMfP-e7yE7-TVPtH5Krkdq47P0Vj-2lMW2xfspM6gLm0ZZN3TI-_uzp90ZseRGuE72Uh3ophO1EjDf1036XL0jiM8-WfDnEgYAW/s1064/positive%20pdo%20and%20positive%20%20pna%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1064" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq0Yi5wWlqOLVURr77L1RzCMLqwVrdOpV9BywcHBCGhyphenhyphen9hSzQ1TACikYytSQ4dIiumYxMk3nHYWpQ27vKZYPrpoz6poqMfP-e7yE7-TVPtH5Krkdq47P0Vj-2lMW2xfspM6gLm0ZZN3TI-_uzp90ZseRGuE72Uh3ophO1EjDf1036XL0jiM8-WfDnEgYAW/s320/positive%20pdo%20and%20positive%20%20pna%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg98qYIg84rUtR-GUGUIGRLhK8OnJGEiTSprZI3cBhsCdfxVAW9K6Z1V0KE_ijT8W7o4JemcagcQlZanT5RKMBPoYVCn4A4xYRpnbIAqMcFfrXjEfcroX13loNiUAJTIFfXM0vBI6vyhKJNQsITfgaD6yVmTNpN6CtpnGeJm7enVIt5xa9O9luQ9JX3kVUP/s1144/negative%20PDO%20and%20negative%20PNA%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1144" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg98qYIg84rUtR-GUGUIGRLhK8OnJGEiTSprZI3cBhsCdfxVAW9K6Z1V0KE_ijT8W7o4JemcagcQlZanT5RKMBPoYVCn4A4xYRpnbIAqMcFfrXjEfcroX13loNiUAJTIFfXM0vBI6vyhKJNQsITfgaD6yVmTNpN6CtpnGeJm7enVIt5xa9O9luQ9JX3kVUP/s320/negative%20PDO%20and%20negative%20PNA%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Last winter,
we had a negative PDO and a negative PNA during January and February that combination
resulted in very warm temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Region.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO
and the ENSO<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk149140277"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During El Nino, the Aleutian Low is generally stronger than
average during the winter months; this favors a positive PDO pattern. The opposite
is true during La Nina; the Aleutian Low is generally weaker than average
during the winter months, which favors a negative PDO pattern.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A negative PDO favors a weaker El
Nino or a stronger La Nina. A positive PDO favors a stronger and longer lasting
El Nino or a weaker La Nina<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is going to be at least a
moderate El Nino winter, with a strong likelihood of the El Nino being strong. So,
since this isn’t a La Nina year. There is a strong signal that this winter will
feature a positive PDO. What we’re seeing in the SSTs in the northern Pacific
supports this idea, of a developing positive PDO.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSgl1qHki0Qo4btap2bswl2WCkxsI1fIhVeRVN9xWIjE3UF3hubuXEz20uejn0JzbkWQtpG1stvzZsWzEqupxRZelr_lmxGtm-KrYXC0oAN0D-96HJbiA5vuSkyUVR5Qo4SX9Bwqk6ZRAhwX0KXpz4lp7_kGd4Iadd4xrWURHnnvHIVO75ZtAQtjoRxbP1/s1099/negative%20pdo,%20pna%20and%20La%20Nina%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1099" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSgl1qHki0Qo4btap2bswl2WCkxsI1fIhVeRVN9xWIjE3UF3hubuXEz20uejn0JzbkWQtpG1stvzZsWzEqupxRZelr_lmxGtm-KrYXC0oAN0D-96HJbiA5vuSkyUVR5Qo4SX9Bwqk6ZRAhwX0KXpz4lp7_kGd4Iadd4xrWURHnnvHIVO75ZtAQtjoRxbP1/s320/negative%20pdo,%20pna%20and%20La%20Nina%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd7JfQAesdMVQC8oJB59dr5tDku2kiguN6aOcUnpWcesErSHo6h4faf0ANiZ4TbmlIsSD-VL38LQ5hGhNyJJPWSElS4tzG4w7AWeio966iped9NtDpKKy4pnEZr0CoLclfpsfX0G_r1Wqz4017WbucqPfMABJVVwnBjvbqxX47I_wuxKRTW2v4wOdbQzLP/s1146/negative%20PDO%20and%20negative%20PNA%20and%20La%20Nina%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="918" data-original-width="1146" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd7JfQAesdMVQC8oJB59dr5tDku2kiguN6aOcUnpWcesErSHo6h4faf0ANiZ4TbmlIsSD-VL38LQ5hGhNyJJPWSElS4tzG4w7AWeio966iped9NtDpKKy4pnEZr0CoLclfpsfX0G_r1Wqz4017WbucqPfMABJVVwnBjvbqxX47I_wuxKRTW2v4wOdbQzLP/s320/negative%20PDO%20and%20negative%20PNA%20and%20La%20Nina%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWAuvaqSnssJMMEAkbN10fnhuPcasjNjc7KUo75OEkbdjEVAC9xngJia6toltRNfWQCdNoQBQc78BGPe2Wyfn5t5_o3wLJXtzc_PiqDqJKR54w0rpqlL2X0IDsPu4Q0AeXBgi100R6dmdJuYk4BFaZnb1laOyRD7uQOIHRkzq9XUtxMtYO11FHF2BPvcND/s1315/positive%20%20PDO%20and%20positive%20PNA%20and%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Nino%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="934" data-original-width="1315" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWAuvaqSnssJMMEAkbN10fnhuPcasjNjc7KUo75OEkbdjEVAC9xngJia6toltRNfWQCdNoQBQc78BGPe2Wyfn5t5_o3wLJXtzc_PiqDqJKR54w0rpqlL2X0IDsPu4Q0AeXBgi100R6dmdJuYk4BFaZnb1laOyRD7uQOIHRkzq9XUtxMtYO11FHF2BPvcND/s320/positive%20%20PDO%20and%20positive%20PNA%20and%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Nino%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">When the PDO and the PNA are in
opposite phases, they are working against each other (Destructive interference)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq8yb8RQlWBWawVoVcC4WdWsZfwRwXXZC5Q_5p5OCvO0pJE671_h01x8JEtaU8gj9nmirzQiaR9K-AvT8kG7GvrqiU38YUmBV6fAErL8rJK1vAd9ktGibOpDS7XxU-Erho2sYNeqyKWJaXQjIjMrcmseqdLXG1WgHAbPVYqDnHkVI3SvGO9JO9YQTgOzmu/s1456/negative%20%20PDO%20and%20positive%20PNA%20Offset%20each%20other%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="948" data-original-width="1456" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq8yb8RQlWBWawVoVcC4WdWsZfwRwXXZC5Q_5p5OCvO0pJE671_h01x8JEtaU8gj9nmirzQiaR9K-AvT8kG7GvrqiU38YUmBV6fAErL8rJK1vAd9ktGibOpDS7XxU-Erho2sYNeqyKWJaXQjIjMrcmseqdLXG1WgHAbPVYqDnHkVI3SvGO9JO9YQTgOzmu/s320/negative%20%20PDO%20and%20positive%20PNA%20Offset%20each%20other%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As I said above, the other major
teleconnections we look at during the winter are the AO,<a name="_Hlk149226293">
EPO</a>, and the<a name="_Hlk149226314"> NAO</a>. Unlike the ENSO PDO and to a
lesser extent the PNA; these three have a tendency to fluctuate between phases
every couple of weeks or so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Artic Oscillation (AO)<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGw7xWE2jN78bCGLQ2MbTVaSvPiE215_UJKD5ZFhw2D0ITBzDorwXCKIPLudxFudKVXk_rZ8gKnm3bHqF2kmRAsQfkgrleACYJpYvvijKQB1qawDyuWJF525yVYrV1XXHWiy5cddtYXxn18bsvZJ_vmyGX794lN22WBXa0ChILUlRQx4eoi3A9XarhnaU3/s566/PositiveAO%201a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="566" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGw7xWE2jN78bCGLQ2MbTVaSvPiE215_UJKD5ZFhw2D0ITBzDorwXCKIPLudxFudKVXk_rZ8gKnm3bHqF2kmRAsQfkgrleACYJpYvvijKQB1qawDyuWJF525yVYrV1XXHWiy5cddtYXxn18bsvZJ_vmyGX794lN22WBXa0ChILUlRQx4eoi3A9XarhnaU3/s320/PositiveAO%201a.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqztO_R97wCzhrmqIYIFjfWO4GJHsU1FbTU3SSmD44TfcJxW4bRTj9KpOZPdeBT91kWpffM_klJ4jdWkMw8Km66lNsZiXfoCt2am4qkLQ6sD0eXWE2FAOkXcfykYhVIi8OOUmEGw7LEohEqfpxBhO02Pab6jlOrUQTMBJC5HcFsd9Y0GCwGFBxoTvCSG1P/s548/NegativeAO%202b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="548" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqztO_R97wCzhrmqIYIFjfWO4GJHsU1FbTU3SSmD44TfcJxW4bRTj9KpOZPdeBT91kWpffM_klJ4jdWkMw8Km66lNsZiXfoCt2am4qkLQ6sD0eXWE2FAOkXcfykYhVIi8OOUmEGw7LEohEqfpxBhO02Pab6jlOrUQTMBJC5HcFsd9Y0GCwGFBxoTvCSG1P/s320/NegativeAO%202b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The AO deals with the strength of the Polar Vortex (PV) and determines whether or not there will be a supply of Arctic air available
to fuel winter weather. I will explain more about the PV when I discuss the current snow cover. But, a positive AO indicates that the PV will be strong and
Arctic air will stay locked up near the pole while a negative AO indicates the
potential for a weaker PV leading to the chance for Arctic air to escape
southward.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">During the winter, the state of the
EPO controls whether there is, a cross-polar path for very cold Arctic and
Siberian air to flow across the pole and down into central and eastern North
America. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">During a negative EPO, a ridge
builds over Alaska. The more amplified this ridge is, the greater the chance for
cross-polar flow. Conversely, a </span><a name="_Hlk149267655" style="font-size: 14pt;">positive</a><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> EPO
indicates a large, persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska and results in warmer
weather for the lower 48.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY6Ip1f3GnK_HouJwMmuiSrEG5AKxeb6C-Dz2BWPC9_H9P3LihaHehi7ysMjpAWvEY-ArN1UvRXcubOKkGI60bKFuVkhTQh2jksCfJFTkOUkX9qLdyHukrVb06SVBMnqOESuevrijWIRknSG-wsRkM0n48Usqe2K9Pbli_wQZHgzO3WV7rCzbGJvPjnQ-X/s640/positive%20epo%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="640" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY6Ip1f3GnK_HouJwMmuiSrEG5AKxeb6C-Dz2BWPC9_H9P3LihaHehi7ysMjpAWvEY-ArN1UvRXcubOKkGI60bKFuVkhTQh2jksCfJFTkOUkX9qLdyHukrVb06SVBMnqOESuevrijWIRknSG-wsRkM0n48Usqe2K9Pbli_wQZHgzO3WV7rCzbGJvPjnQ-X/s320/positive%20epo%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrTM28XK8G-EY7Ayy0eAt0MhPPrGAxTKPLpFif8eztIeMfPERv8n4hTyJhyphenhyphenZVujEZWmn9j1hV2m3AkyJEwRrUIT_50694hC0HgEV91kPXdDHpN6rKWjsHgJjdsupxqxKaQsghEYb7cFxQn1pMztM_zfOBrpYd5u4G5SzaVLyZpEej3a4ncES7ya6rNdEvK/s1000/negative%20epo%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1000" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrTM28XK8G-EY7Ayy0eAt0MhPPrGAxTKPLpFif8eztIeMfPERv8n4hTyJhyphenhyphenZVujEZWmn9j1hV2m3AkyJEwRrUIT_50694hC0HgEV91kPXdDHpN6rKWjsHgJjdsupxqxKaQsghEYb7cFxQn1pMztM_zfOBrpYd5u4G5SzaVLyZpEej3a4ncES7ya6rNdEvK/s320/negative%20epo%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NAO, in its negative state,
indicates high-latitude blocking over Greenland. This lingering area of high
pressure causes the flow to stagnate. The storm track is often underneath it
and can result in persistent storminess for the Eastern US. On the contrary, a positive
NAO has no such block and the storm track moves quickly across the CONUS and
out into the Atlantic.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_40eHmwhRo1uLR6l339tdtjSYAE4vUh-YbSrj04kkFmG-voHrSsU9G4NkOCv2OHxO16gaAaTys23XmbDLRndnhyphenhyphenu4cDqrKzgGyqy26c9DG1RYg0mPzf89wFaWO-2c5h8gtkaNkEg__sPxQ3axsvbyfvo4Txh2Th0rU1gmVeaPJ0FvKpqW6YfSlVwANuKr/s1400/NAO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_40eHmwhRo1uLR6l339tdtjSYAE4vUh-YbSrj04kkFmG-voHrSsU9G4NkOCv2OHxO16gaAaTys23XmbDLRndnhyphenhyphenu4cDqrKzgGyqy26c9DG1RYg0mPzf89wFaWO-2c5h8gtkaNkEg__sPxQ3axsvbyfvo4Txh2Th0rU1gmVeaPJ0FvKpqW6YfSlVwANuKr/s320/NAO%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFnZwcB6cWQ62IaKn8nMnIJFNQahK4qRZHyNV3Dm66iI7qBBuW3vqFfZVSbDHDeVOCnsKtaTbe0ioUvZZ9kaZhfpBiVDwldvmKmQ0iqMCqPk9blv0OIOc_Cv-uC9HUSha89lHaNdsSbfYB33lpiCL9UPbCkrkLO2oqGxEVjrnhV67ZJSHs_DTU7dsDF-rY/s720/NAO%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="720" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFnZwcB6cWQ62IaKn8nMnIJFNQahK4qRZHyNV3Dm66iI7qBBuW3vqFfZVSbDHDeVOCnsKtaTbe0ioUvZZ9kaZhfpBiVDwldvmKmQ0iqMCqPk9blv0OIOc_Cv-uC9HUSha89lHaNdsSbfYB33lpiCL9UPbCkrkLO2oqGxEVjrnhV67ZJSHs_DTU7dsDF-rY/s320/NAO%202.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Can the eastern US still get winter
weather with a positive NAO? Yes, but they’re often quick-hitters and rarely
significant events.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The ideal configuration for a period
of winter weather in the eastern US is a negative NAO, negative AO, negative EPO,
positive PDO and a positive PNA. Can other combinations still produce winter
weather? Sure, but this combination is almost a guarantee.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk149140277;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Snow
cover:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Since it is
still October, I remain focused on the snow cover advance across Siberia and
what impact it may have on the stratospheric polar vortex (PV).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am sure I will be discussing this pathway
more in the coming months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More
extensive snow cover across Eurasia in October, and this mostly confined to
Siberia, the more likely the PV will be weaker than normal during the winter
months that favors widespread colder temperatures across the Northern
Hemisphere (NH) but in particular in East Asia and the US east of the Rockies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJIWaT9yowwaQIPqu-EDtYKqE87_Mr27ulr-7pyxQiCkDr6s4FTJlt2p5MlUPKcRlIF1gzHdBSOH9mAOFtFh9IrQWICfMx9lwxTg7I4WI4_UyF1yEYTzfYaSO_5Evf4f9P4V1eobmBQpNEdRH4YJxsPyH8cIhyZ85VbO9PNbK85qw2zpxMQ4ukJG1T40nv/s861/snowcover%20extent%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="861" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJIWaT9yowwaQIPqu-EDtYKqE87_Mr27ulr-7pyxQiCkDr6s4FTJlt2p5MlUPKcRlIF1gzHdBSOH9mAOFtFh9IrQWICfMx9lwxTg7I4WI4_UyF1yEYTzfYaSO_5Evf4f9P4V1eobmBQpNEdRH4YJxsPyH8cIhyZ85VbO9PNbK85qw2zpxMQ4ukJG1T40nv/s320/snowcover%20extent%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0cfNZ_KBccJL7W23f0ojratUgZ1yOvMYTdcz0sFXJatHgYaY1_fv4ht-MqrqEm3TtasQTbrg_9OzOMKr5c-89g28WABUCDbxRR676DSptokpQd8uaATsq2QRMIste9Cb8s7um98azbU2M8SgQx4Dc-_L4K5T8QHm_Zb3u-DuAY-I1az0JO1ItFmz3eaWt/s512/snow%20cover%203.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0cfNZ_KBccJL7W23f0ojratUgZ1yOvMYTdcz0sFXJatHgYaY1_fv4ht-MqrqEm3TtasQTbrg_9OzOMKr5c-89g28WABUCDbxRR676DSptokpQd8uaATsq2QRMIste9Cb8s7um98azbU2M8SgQx4Dc-_L4K5T8QHm_Zb3u-DuAY-I1az0JO1ItFmz3eaWt/s320/snow%20cover%203.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnDULY8IsEK9XWbgTQxQDMEONiJtP6D13je9FJy0oIyXHJqz6aw5ISIC9_V6OabmAcW2B74WSov-GfeUKWQF7xz89DTno8yN0NDV9JTpnzDfk7U6xMgNSWXPV9uupFYwLlyCpa5UDxnErsfqn-xDRVAuhjxDks9Hw2XNc7L27c7lTFSM55ko7Layj8rKcM/s512/snow%20cover%202.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnDULY8IsEK9XWbgTQxQDMEONiJtP6D13je9FJy0oIyXHJqz6aw5ISIC9_V6OabmAcW2B74WSov-GfeUKWQF7xz89DTno8yN0NDV9JTpnzDfk7U6xMgNSWXPV9uupFYwLlyCpa5UDxnErsfqn-xDRVAuhjxDks9Hw2XNc7L27c7lTFSM55ko7Layj8rKcM/s320/snow%20cover%202.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioRLbknPO1eSUS94wamBOEO6rxgyx-8zl8yfv4zzt5_ogmclBUJL7xpRgU4nzm-Rlh8pU8TlBRBqHHFEPssiWxh_wh-3l1lIqppuf9wl9SOk0C4hHGcXvwIWAy9VvAxV9B462t6JJC0j7vndVQmGZJ-SR1OOy4EaylZho50nGl0qKQHfGzkiN0WyFmh1fL/s809/snow%20cover%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="721" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioRLbknPO1eSUS94wamBOEO6rxgyx-8zl8yfv4zzt5_ogmclBUJL7xpRgU4nzm-Rlh8pU8TlBRBqHHFEPssiWxh_wh-3l1lIqppuf9wl9SOk0C4hHGcXvwIWAy9VvAxV9B462t6JJC0j7vndVQmGZJ-SR1OOy4EaylZho50nGl0qKQHfGzkiN0WyFmh1fL/s320/snow%20cover%204.jpg" width="285" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The more
widespread snow cover is across Siberia during October, the more we’re likely
to see a weaker than average stratospheric Polar Vortex (PV) during December
through February. The PV is a large area of low pressure that sits over the
Pole during the winter. When snow cover in Siberia is above average, it favors
the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">When the Arctic Oscillation is in its positive
phase, the jet stream, which brings us a large part of our weather in
middle latitudes, tends to shift to the north. So, when the AO is positive, the
polar vortex is generally strong and in a tight circle, with cold air bottled
up over the Arctic. When the AO is negative, the PV tends to be weak and much wavier
meaning it is prone to collapse, this increases the likelihood of cold
outbreaks here in the U.S. east of the Rockies. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So far this
year, snow cover over Siberia has been well below average, but over the last
couple of weeks this departure has been reversing. Snow cover over northern
Canada isn’t really seeing any big improvement in snow cover. But in general, the
larger the snow cover extent in Asia and Canada in the Fall, the better the
chances for stronger polar air outbreaks during the winter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We will have
to keep an eye on this; as there is still time for the snow cover over Canada
and Eurasia to increase. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is
what I’m thinking based on how things look to be trending….<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now,
the closest the atmospheric setup and pattern resemble is the winters of 2002-2003
and 2009-2010. Those winters saw generally colder temperatures and some snowy periods
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I do think
we’re going to have a predominate positive PDO and positive PNA. This would allow
for the potential for cooler overall temperatures for the winter of 2023-2024 here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. But
storm tracks and temperatures will depend on the phases of the AO, NAO and EPO.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Real winter
will be slow to start, with overall temperatures in December running average to
slightly above average. January will see generally average overall
temperatures. Then February into March will see overall temperatures below
average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This isn’t going to be the
coldest winter on record; but it also won’t be the warmest winter on record.
Those predicting a torch for the entire winter are likely on the wrong side of
what looks to transpire. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There will
be blocking setting up near Greenland at times. Depending on how the polar
vortex acts during those times will determine the amount of cold that will be available.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We’ve
already had some early season nor’easters. I think the winter is going to feature
a few nor’easters that come up the Coast from the Gulf of Mexico (Miller A nor’easters)
and some storms that move into the Ohio Valley that then transfer to the Middle
Atlantic Coast (Miller B nor’easters). The tracks will depend on the alinement
of the teleconnections, if we have a negative AO along with a negative west-based
NAO, it would favor a snowstorm bringing the chance meaningful snow for parts of the region. But
if the negative NAO is east-based, the storms would likely form too far east to
bring much in the way of snow to parts of the region. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much cold these storms have will depend on
the phase of the EPO, if the timing works out, then a negative EPO would bring
the opportunity for at least a moderate polar airmass over the region. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The amount
of snow this winter will be very dependent on your location. Those in western
parts of our region, will likely see overall snow amounts that are average to
below average, with central and northern parts of the region ending up generally
with overall average seasonal snow amounts. Those in the Middle Atlantic into
southern New England, will have the greatest chance of seeing overall above
average seasonal snow totals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The winter
pattern that looks to be setting up will likely see at least one to two big nor’easter
events from mid-January, February into early March. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These storms would have the potential to bring
major snowfall across the Middle Atlantic, I-95 Corridor into Southern New England.
We’ve seen these kinds of winters before, where one or two big storms made up
the bulk of the winter snow. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well that’s
it for now. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">Part three can be found <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-three.html" target="_blank">here</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-27350478585591512592023-10-02T16:35:00.007-04:002024-02-23T14:44:52.839-05:002023 2024 Winter outlook part one <p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, we’re
at that time of year, where thoughts about the upcoming winter start to
surface. A professor of mine once said “global weather is local weather”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By that they meant that the local weather we
experience day in and day out is just part of the overall global weather
pattern. This is the basic principle of weather forecasting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The weather locally doesn’t occur at random.
It is the result of all the large and small interactions between global teleconnections
and all the unique factors that make up our local environment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My weather outlooks are based on scientific
principles and processes; that I try to interpret; in order to figure out how
these influences will work together, for an overall picture on what we can
expect here in the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over
the last few years these seasonal outlooks have been multi-part. This is
necessary due to the shear complex nature of the data. So, here is part one of my
2023 and 2024 winter outlook. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Remember an
outlook is a general blueprint; it’s not a perfect layout as to what will happen
over the Winter season. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Some of the
major influences this winter are going to be El Nino, Stratospheric Polar
Vortex and Teleconnections like the <a name="_Hlk146836935">Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Part one of
the outlook, will focus on these major influences in detail including the
historic implications. I will also show how all of these things intertwine and
what they could be hinting at for this coming winter.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If you don't want to read why I'm coming to the conclusion that I am, you can drop to the bottom of the page to read the summation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
Surface Temperatures:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNaGLCL4MB0K3xHai8_JdX2Sfxq-btc33jAY5AQnvmoAly15blLecJWEUzDScxRJZyIlxuXbAJ92Ox2K3t42thjGBXAyxUboh6bbWrmct3Clxm6WSRwwMVi33J0GZJTevvU-8xm9wLBfh0LocmbmAFoPYEeMn3KhAnu5LluV5oMoo52Tx0dx4FJhTrEP1e/s1565/SST%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="951" data-original-width="1565" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNaGLCL4MB0K3xHai8_JdX2Sfxq-btc33jAY5AQnvmoAly15blLecJWEUzDScxRJZyIlxuXbAJ92Ox2K3t42thjGBXAyxUboh6bbWrmct3Clxm6WSRwwMVi33J0GZJTevvU-8xm9wLBfh0LocmbmAFoPYEeMn3KhAnu5LluV5oMoo52Tx0dx4FJhTrEP1e/s320/SST%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the SST map, we can see the vast majority of the ocean water in the Northern Hemisphere
is very warm. The northern into Central Pacific has this warm spot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Typically, during an El Nino, you want this
area to be cooler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, typically we
want the western Indian Ocean to be wet and the area around Southeast Asia to
be dry.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The gradient
caused by these SST is going to be a big factor as well when it comes to storm
development. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Teleconnections:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The ENSO
involves Sea Surface Temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific. Like
all teleconnections, the ENSO consist of a warm phase (La Nina), a neutral
phase, and a warm phase (El Nino). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
last three winters were influenced by La Nina It started in September 2020 and
lasted into early spring of this year, making it a rare triple dip La Nina.
From 2021 into 2023 the La Nina event was the strongest on record. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>El Nino was declared back in June. It has been
strengthening all summer. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There has
been a lot of speculative talk about the implications of El Nino for our
upcoming winter; Some saying it will be a torch and others saying it could be
cold, some say it will mean a snowless winter. While these predictions are
possible, that doesn’t mean other outcomes won’t happen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s
important to remember that El Nino’s are not all the same. The region can see
different outcomes depending on the placement of where the El Nino is centered.
Also, El Nino isn’t the only factor when it comes to the wintertime pattern.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj0BfD3ohn6sEgbMUx2Uta-VQCsDd5Csz1DwkIRkpAN9yA-YWNeRx16FAaPZcf8bmiaLa6RNM-nvsOCmRkDgbJC0GM1jm2SrMJ_rvKJXKnXI4R9B0qVJuof_QJqObfKBIsl6BB-nD2tJFcq26urMhe8FnUUfBB59It4tRIRyLJNH__Kkaszl5nPnDK4qxa/s2640/Nino%20regions%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2640" data-original-width="2295" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj0BfD3ohn6sEgbMUx2Uta-VQCsDd5Csz1DwkIRkpAN9yA-YWNeRx16FAaPZcf8bmiaLa6RNM-nvsOCmRkDgbJC0GM1jm2SrMJ_rvKJXKnXI4R9B0qVJuof_QJqObfKBIsl6BB-nD2tJFcq26urMhe8FnUUfBB59It4tRIRyLJNH__Kkaszl5nPnDK4qxa/s320/Nino%20regions%201.jpeg" width="278" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 14pt;">All of the
latest weekly Nino indices are in excess of +1.0ºC: Nino-4 is +1.1ºC, Nino-3.4
was +1.6ºC, Nino-3 was +2.2ºC, and Nino1+2 was +2.9ºC.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The most
recent IRI plume indicates El Nino will persist through the Northern Hemisphere
winter 2023-2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This year’s
El Nino was declared in June. Since Nature is always trying to find a balance,
it should be no surprise that this El Nino is going to be strong, in fact it
could end up being a Super El Nino.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
wrote a post on Super El Nino’s which you can find <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/what-is-super-el-nino.html" target="_blank">here.</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Recent winters
have been warmer than average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When
looking back at northeastern United States winters 30-50 years ago, it’s clear
that Winters in the past, were generally snowier and colder in the past. While
part of that reason has to do with things like the Artic Oscillation, jet
stream placement, and many other things; there is no doubt, that a warming
planet also playing a part. We can disagree on the reasons for the warming, but
we can’t deny the planet is warming. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Super
El Nino’s do seem to set a new plateau when it comes to the warming.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj00fswCz-SnFK-oWb06_MCzZjLXhE_fFyL-jnyw_83sAsIrLnSzW1m9BHhu2K4ljSLa9dKy8mTcYJSL6bG0zRA7bw4IeLWXrWPny0lt-J0NQC6VBFlrr7BlUdM2qW2rW1YAzjd0V0b-YzlLr4HX8S9xxglmIBFxGTaEDVjmeALx14XB337esyYa7QgP8eR/s640/El%20Nino_step_up.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="640" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj00fswCz-SnFK-oWb06_MCzZjLXhE_fFyL-jnyw_83sAsIrLnSzW1m9BHhu2K4ljSLa9dKy8mTcYJSL6bG0zRA7bw4IeLWXrWPny0lt-J0NQC6VBFlrr7BlUdM2qW2rW1YAzjd0V0b-YzlLr4HX8S9xxglmIBFxGTaEDVjmeALx14XB337esyYa7QgP8eR/s320/El%20Nino_step_up.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Above is an image that Joe Bastardi posted
that shows this correlation. So, if the current El Nino ends up being a super
El Nino, it will be interesting to see if it sets a new plateau. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As I said
each El Nino is different, but there are a few general patterns that are
associated with them. The polar jet stream is typically farther north than
average, with the subtropical jet stream sitting across the southern U.S. The
subtropical jet is amplified and stays active bringing wet and stormy weather
to the South and Southeast. During El Nino the Southeast U.S. is typically
colder. At the same time the northern tier of the U.S. is typically warmer than
average, due to the placement of strong low-pressure area in the North Pacific.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Midwest and Great Lakes are
characteristically drier than average, many times this dryness extends into
western New York State and western Pennsylvania. While the eastern seaboard a
storm track that has coastal storms off the Southeast Coast move up the Coast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In general, New England winters during an traditional El
Nino tend to be warmer While the Middle Atlantic region usually is a bit colder
and wetter than average. Historically, strong El Nino's have had big impacts on
the Northeast, but the correlation is weak. Generally, a large part of the
region sees above average precipitation. But as for snowfall Interior New
England tends to see lower snow totals, as does western Pennsylvania, and the
snowbelts off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. While the Middle Atlantic into
southern New England tend to see average to above average snowfall. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A lot will depend on exactly where the El Nino
sets up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a diagram
that shows a general idea of an El Nino pattern.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib4GkUc66BDAfnF4T7DmbxFf5eTc71-4eauv94-ddkV79BQzxpt7E8LSrNE2W_fEQRp3JbRy-EFk_LtNZnE9NN7tj1MxUGXE51dLLKWQlIBFGnATDZKne-j-pFewzT5Xy1QX2IzkbFpWOSGxw5t0BurgWNBs4cYx7aksa-N1CcVxvEkIvHawDFIlo7rWU5/s1109/en%20nino%20pattern%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1109" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib4GkUc66BDAfnF4T7DmbxFf5eTc71-4eauv94-ddkV79BQzxpt7E8LSrNE2W_fEQRp3JbRy-EFk_LtNZnE9NN7tj1MxUGXE51dLLKWQlIBFGnATDZKne-j-pFewzT5Xy1QX2IzkbFpWOSGxw5t0BurgWNBs4cYx7aksa-N1CcVxvEkIvHawDFIlo7rWU5/s320/en%20nino%20pattern%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A so called traditional
El Nino, is where the warmest SST anomalies are in the eastern part of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean, in Contrast an El Nino Modoki event is where the warmest SST occurs
farther to the west in the central Pacific Ocean near the International Date
Line. Historically, strong El Nino Modoki years tend to see more ridging of the
polar jet stream over the western United States and troughing over the east
coast, which can favor cooler weather Northeast. There can also be quite a bit
of jet stream variability during an Modoki. The Southeast tends to see much
cooler and wetter conditions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is
because the pattern of the subtropical jet stream resulting in a change in the
general track for winter storms. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPSX6ACApxPjSUe8byxK0BOK_DCXe7V76dlBmw2NTfdegWbIllVuTULmH02JzE7NRXWAH8Ja-OywIldsF7rrhpD_sEmcPeGwjlkZopQEte3j62528vBR1Qo9tvEhYncllITesZ9mrKJpiIxR16kX4wSx5si9iutz5rejXWOyU074tpkvbBH-h9TF2YvLJT/s1263/ECMWF%20MSLP%20anomaly%20winter%20subtropical%20jet%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="715" data-original-width="1263" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPSX6ACApxPjSUe8byxK0BOK_DCXe7V76dlBmw2NTfdegWbIllVuTULmH02JzE7NRXWAH8Ja-OywIldsF7rrhpD_sEmcPeGwjlkZopQEte3j62528vBR1Qo9tvEhYncllITesZ9mrKJpiIxR16kX4wSx5si9iutz5rejXWOyU074tpkvbBH-h9TF2YvLJT/s320/ECMWF%20MSLP%20anomaly%20winter%20subtropical%20jet%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJOrU5bvm5wXCmbRncPqRG5Pvmdb82qrUlXpRckuRPiwf5V5GAqXd_DcOl2wZ-k9k6eYy9h7KSlaPF-gNIMjBWHai_9vy-PDRFP9A0QD9qr7gzR3ueb5EpXorEY_x-ODbYqXz05IZ7q1ItekDyvwuCZ-XPyu7cdf84_ZEqKXjtNuWmCoSA8Bx6LnWwUhE/s1002/ECWMF%20subtropical%20jet%20MMME%205.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="1002" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJOrU5bvm5wXCmbRncPqRG5Pvmdb82qrUlXpRckuRPiwf5V5GAqXd_DcOl2wZ-k9k6eYy9h7KSlaPF-gNIMjBWHai_9vy-PDRFP9A0QD9qr7gzR3ueb5EpXorEY_x-ODbYqXz05IZ7q1ItekDyvwuCZ-XPyu7cdf84_ZEqKXjtNuWmCoSA8Bx6LnWwUhE/s320/ECWMF%20subtropical%20jet%20MMME%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
models:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The European Center for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Shows a general east based El Nino for December. But it shows an Modoki El Nino for January into March.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21NWibvjxJd-D8nP9qSflFngWy94QOoaTKFAD95IYcRXzvSq0yQo5QIzERe0JPLYkKxMZe2zBqMXQNatcLdmBMVU-ZoXVNIHu_gruqH4uHh7vhOI1_NKY_H3u0Px2muz8jjj4L5Gcs80p2Hbttz1tf9uT1riSkJdfGO9adIkacsQD9Cf8p4RC0N3quYcz/s1305/ECMWF%20SST%20anomaly%20winter%20start%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="715" data-original-width="1305" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21NWibvjxJd-D8nP9qSflFngWy94QOoaTKFAD95IYcRXzvSq0yQo5QIzERe0JPLYkKxMZe2zBqMXQNatcLdmBMVU-ZoXVNIHu_gruqH4uHh7vhOI1_NKY_H3u0Px2muz8jjj4L5Gcs80p2Hbttz1tf9uT1riSkJdfGO9adIkacsQD9Cf8p4RC0N3quYcz/s320/ECMWF%20SST%20anomaly%20winter%20start%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0uOYLYvSqRkWfxX5-OG7P9RqRPR3NLWMSY12pslJXWJHwnfHO2Dm4jYPTp3FDWf_yD7Jx0ZLFOZerjnxumq0ADX4pW8Y6tbfCFI7oSK13qhtYQcZEdxpkd9H2QziinsGLQAHXC2XpEFah9Jp0RXU4rJhC-q1aoNIreXzqbVCjbQuicf6aTl2t5T9TenCw/s1308/ECMWF%20SST%20anomaly%20winter%20center%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="1308" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0uOYLYvSqRkWfxX5-OG7P9RqRPR3NLWMSY12pslJXWJHwnfHO2Dm4jYPTp3FDWf_yD7Jx0ZLFOZerjnxumq0ADX4pW8Y6tbfCFI7oSK13qhtYQcZEdxpkd9H2QziinsGLQAHXC2XpEFah9Jp0RXU4rJhC-q1aoNIreXzqbVCjbQuicf6aTl2t5T9TenCw/s320/ECMWF%20SST%20anomaly%20winter%20center%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) model is also showing a Modoki El Nino for
the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw3Kt-DhZLojIWjbRYizKmXoY_1aJPUg42Aq-9AFZ9qR8uo_9yRhvIlhFzG6SnBLtG6pL6SApOu6ZQjih4Fs1KZgMNL7rdz4CO0MoU_6ZtG8G8ufsa46NoKotHu1OVZfLwnmWqM5FmxvD_84ubqwEPcU28oJdppBbT5YHGoJJmUHa-1Qf_2VfKym9q1dyK/s930/MMME%20SST%20anomalies%20for%20Dec%20Jan%20feb.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="930" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw3Kt-DhZLojIWjbRYizKmXoY_1aJPUg42Aq-9AFZ9qR8uo_9yRhvIlhFzG6SnBLtG6pL6SApOu6ZQjih4Fs1KZgMNL7rdz4CO0MoU_6ZtG8G8ufsa46NoKotHu1OVZfLwnmWqM5FmxvD_84ubqwEPcU28oJdppBbT5YHGoJJmUHa-1Qf_2VfKym9q1dyK/s320/MMME%20SST%20anomalies%20for%20Dec%20Jan%20feb.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The models
are generally the opposite of what they were showing this time last year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation (QBO)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The QBO deals
with strong stratospheric winds over the equator. It has two phases a westerly (positive)phase
and an easterly (negative) phase. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two
phases switch back and forth in a fairly regular 14-month cycle, so an entire
cycle is about 28 months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
graph that shows the zonal wind anomalies, going back 4 decades, showing the
clockwork phase change. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These winds in
the stratosphere descend down to the jet stream where than can either reinforce
or oppose the polar jet stream. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnYgazOZeB1eHt9MbW31p3szbDa3cmOMSIYNJYXHD-5s3Pof1f0ev84IIgxD1DRJvwY0LsouIbgnekcWx1tz9kI0UmXpLBF8FeiUmSvQKgZLyeFkd6YQg4DthVGj3kN85zoUwnCZecchJURgicudyusG0UqnQW80mTX260TO6ZpTWflHWhtsaUsQ8-3xlm/s1312/East%20qbo%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1312" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnYgazOZeB1eHt9MbW31p3szbDa3cmOMSIYNJYXHD-5s3Pof1f0ev84IIgxD1DRJvwY0LsouIbgnekcWx1tz9kI0UmXpLBF8FeiUmSvQKgZLyeFkd6YQg4DthVGj3kN85zoUwnCZecchJURgicudyusG0UqnQW80mTX260TO6ZpTWflHWhtsaUsQ8-3xlm/s320/East%20qbo%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Last year we
were in a westerly QBO, But the current data shows the QBO is in an easterly phase,
the QBO will stay in this negative phase all winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here is a diagram showing the wind direction at
40-10 mb (roughly 66,000 to 84,000 feet).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpVXBqMOkb82ej46P7_esmdqdlUmKINx6n1vN149na9TteBkABnS7KN7qle5rEZkGy9BtEzpfObkcoyHiRQixbMcxsxt-KIdWqP4quAEjBZb0T5pM77c-vGSqpAFNLy7LL2ogC-q3Fqv9UCdPevc5M5BVfZYeyRScUAe870RzXaYxNhu1E6yOQdaW2yF4G/s1218/East%20qbo%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1218" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpVXBqMOkb82ej46P7_esmdqdlUmKINx6n1vN149na9TteBkABnS7KN7qle5rEZkGy9BtEzpfObkcoyHiRQixbMcxsxt-KIdWqP4quAEjBZb0T5pM77c-vGSqpAFNLy7LL2ogC-q3Fqv9UCdPevc5M5BVfZYeyRScUAe870RzXaYxNhu1E6yOQdaW2yF4G/s320/East%20qbo%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The data
shows that The QBO was in a westerly phase last winter. As the winds descend
out of the Stratosphere they will have a big impact on how this winter behaves.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The QBO influences
the strength of the Polar Vortex so it can have wide ranging impacts and can affect
weather in the Middle Latitude through indirect influence on surface pressure
patterns. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I will comeback to the QBO;
but first I want to talk about the Polar Vortex, as the QBO and Polar Vortex
are strongly integrated with each other. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Polar
Vortex (PV):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Atmosphere is composed of many layers; the closest to the surface where we live
is called the troposphere. The troposphere is where all the weather events occur.
The one above the troposphere is called the Stratosphere. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Polar Vortex is the result of a large-scale
low pressure cyclonic circulation over the North and South Poles. For this
post, I will focus on the Northern Hemisphere. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The PV It is connected through all atmospheric
levels. But when talking about the PV we tend to break it down to an upper part
and a lower part. The upper part involves the Stratosphere and the lower part
involves the troposphere. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
diagram that shows the two parts of the PV. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4SgWN5PjPA1RcToi9-gZlK_i7s6f5OTYEij2BIW1RvB4GfCLbnE2tVzR_riRZUVCEJVTjbV_WFSRwPodG2z25aACAoyqfLi4173W9B3ZYdbEZdN5ZqgJUGtpuvQoNp7hzcpcG4-2ZizQTwoxP3lgMMwV1J93ToYFbMIikDHahQ_T-mcN7F2Fk6ir0Cvw5/s926/pv%20pattern%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="926" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4SgWN5PjPA1RcToi9-gZlK_i7s6f5OTYEij2BIW1RvB4GfCLbnE2tVzR_riRZUVCEJVTjbV_WFSRwPodG2z25aACAoyqfLi4173W9B3ZYdbEZdN5ZqgJUGtpuvQoNp7hzcpcG4-2ZizQTwoxP3lgMMwV1J93ToYFbMIikDHahQ_T-mcN7F2Fk6ir0Cvw5/s320/pv%20pattern%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The upper
part has an altitude of around 14 miles, so it isn’t impacted by the surface
terrain and weather processes present in the lower atmosphere; so, it is more
circular and uniform. The lower part is much more uneven in appearance, due to
the influence of weather subsystems and terrain. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Depending on
the strength of the PV circulation, there can be cold outbreaks in the middle
latitudes, where most of us live. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Typically,
when the Polar Vortex is strong, the strong jet tends to bottle up the cold air
up over the Arctic Circle, leaving the milder conditions in the middle latitudes
in places like the United States and Europe. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, a weak PV leads to a weak
jet, which allows the arctic cold to push south into the Asia, United States
and Europe. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Strong is
the more common state of the polar vortex.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking back
at the QBO<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Here is
another chart showing the QBO, the upper right corner is the developing easterly
phase. This is going to slowly descend from the stratosphere into the
troposphere, where it will have an impact on winter temperatures. As it will
work to modify how the El Nino is interacting with the PV.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGI5fyPL72Jp14NVm0MJ_4hFLYfWr03swtMnsGPFIg1LK92_WJyJA0iHzpLR_qzRHhKvScQVK5KwxJmNrTE9j-heyXyLKm9rgR8InsaqmaEox2rybdOAp23giaJfNo_QDeVfl_Wdu3K1OezAsvFJkAKlh6Ci1G74sszt1COfmpFIu_LQnrSJBszXLIIFJ/s1096/East%20qbo%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="1096" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGI5fyPL72Jp14NVm0MJ_4hFLYfWr03swtMnsGPFIg1LK92_WJyJA0iHzpLR_qzRHhKvScQVK5KwxJmNrTE9j-heyXyLKm9rgR8InsaqmaEox2rybdOAp23giaJfNo_QDeVfl_Wdu3K1OezAsvFJkAKlh6Ci1G74sszt1COfmpFIu_LQnrSJBszXLIIFJ/s320/East%20qbo%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When the QBO
is in a westerly phase, the odds increase for a stronger PV. As I stated above
a strong PV increases the odds for a milder winter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When the QBO
is in an easterly phase, the opposite occurs, we tend to see a weaker PV,
increasing the odds for a colder winter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During
winters with a negative QBO, those easterlies migrating downward can weaken the
jet stream, giving us a better shot at cold air outbreaks; as they help produce
warmer temperatures in the polar stratosphere. This increases the odds for
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. An SSW is a very rapid warming in
the Stratosphere over both poles. It is one of the most extreme changes of
weather on the entire planet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
space of a week arctic temperatures at the pole between 10 km and 50 km can
increase by more than 90 ⁰F.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
causes the PV to wobble. As this process the result of this, pushes the PV away
from the Poles, forcing warmer air in the mid latitudes to move north to
replace the colder that has been displaced, and as the air moves downward into
the troposphere the polar region warms allowing the colder air to work its way
into the lower elevations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During a negative
QBO there is a greater signal for high pressure to setup in the North Atlantic,
resulting in high latitude blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada, that
slows down and can even stall storm systems as they move eastward over the
CONUS. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Below is a
diagram that shows there is a greater tendency for overall colder winters over
the southern and eastern United States and northern Europe during a negative
QBO phase. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, there are other teleconnection
influences that can also have an impact on overall winter temperatures. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnvSLltvvjwcv7MrSZXM2rOUNs48ZpJZ71nobUjtHf6EtYJI6j1AR5sHHqQNC47NDZ9uQNIBtNGAOrqxiEZSi9PHnA0aTZ0otTfaGGyOFmCaLJRBaRJaH94BX7Ifko1bPbYMLW43pivBAqRXZ2GhzyFkI5e2CMnltayYj0bJH6Un_rLkgZV-PguVkqIc2v/s1227/Correlation%20qbo%20winters..jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="1227" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnvSLltvvjwcv7MrSZXM2rOUNs48ZpJZ71nobUjtHf6EtYJI6j1AR5sHHqQNC47NDZ9uQNIBtNGAOrqxiEZSi9PHnA0aTZ0otTfaGGyOFmCaLJRBaRJaH94BX7Ifko1bPbYMLW43pivBAqRXZ2GhzyFkI5e2CMnltayYj0bJH6Un_rLkgZV-PguVkqIc2v/s320/Correlation%20qbo%20winters..jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Analogue
years:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The key is
picking the right analogues <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">So, the
analogues I going with right now are</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1958, 1966,
1987, 1995, 2003, 2010<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Temperature.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJeRZFYDsjaK_YTuf5JUAubvIVsCFS33p-Nul7Zy3BSNQCmZDl3HsgolMsYOxslsx_g4WLDoR-g53dQOeZ-73cuI2z4lzIbNAd7KxTcc6Ke-tXNEii2-8reMRlr2YM8AEmrJP_IjnTY9-asSqq9EoYMaEp6bXIZYM6KLsxwnQ1k1RLWF8qRAUi079btRQ2/s550/final%20analogue%20temp%206%20season.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJeRZFYDsjaK_YTuf5JUAubvIVsCFS33p-Nul7Zy3BSNQCmZDl3HsgolMsYOxslsx_g4WLDoR-g53dQOeZ-73cuI2z4lzIbNAd7KxTcc6Ke-tXNEii2-8reMRlr2YM8AEmrJP_IjnTY9-asSqq9EoYMaEp6bXIZYM6KLsxwnQ1k1RLWF8qRAUi079btRQ2/s320/final%20analogue%20temp%206%20season.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">Precipitation</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil2eNv97MhChmWPJ-xyVbwNXW-ddP4FYyIWnb3U49b1tOlC9dJS2FC5Ra17ZUJq6qAtOj9Ez9JxRqK2vW74MCq34UGhYJDgI9kg1h-OJ3aCM-hEv5oIJbX4YA6cBEiqrup39HIvbk-UnyO1DV3vJkOs8ugfXyL0_ED63QF_Ay0jQBfBO1WpcMhRi1H9ubZ/s550/final%20analogue%20preicp%206%20season.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil2eNv97MhChmWPJ-xyVbwNXW-ddP4FYyIWnb3U49b1tOlC9dJS2FC5Ra17ZUJq6qAtOj9Ez9JxRqK2vW74MCq34UGhYJDgI9kg1h-OJ3aCM-hEv5oIJbX4YA6cBEiqrup39HIvbk-UnyO1DV3vJkOs8ugfXyL0_ED63QF_Ay0jQBfBO1WpcMhRi1H9ubZ/s320/final%20analogue%20preicp%206%20season.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) released there 2023-2024 winter outlook on September 21.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperature
Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4CVMxqtCRx14cVOMKSmQ717dVgBbcufI7q_Gua3xJdPObpm9UDiA_UDVF00rPuuc79ddh9BEFnHgujxJj7vvvVfTezieAA8TDrbP46BySnhZuC0Ip4WlFhY3cHmdVEXI0pvuOid0M5mPY4DOQm6Kl-Cl2ba9HC6w03f2O9RB-xwB8TOh7Qb0X7OZZp8Ns/s1276/CPC%20winter%20temperature%20outlook.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1276" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4CVMxqtCRx14cVOMKSmQ717dVgBbcufI7q_Gua3xJdPObpm9UDiA_UDVF00rPuuc79ddh9BEFnHgujxJj7vvvVfTezieAA8TDrbP46BySnhZuC0Ip4WlFhY3cHmdVEXI0pvuOid0M5mPY4DOQm6Kl-Cl2ba9HC6w03f2O9RB-xwB8TOh7Qb0X7OZZp8Ns/s320/CPC%20winter%20temperature%20outlook.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the
northern United States through the winter months with the best chance for the
warmer-than-normal winter to occur in the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation
Outlook <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTQdo_NoJuVabh9iLZ7Egc4NhrvWerf580i5FfkFyczIYG-jbCdnKl_axtf01oP_6R98Vbk97JWk0ji60FAYKAFsLqjB1wDoSeZCj94gzkMOSzv93YSxGItyETMkm_Jvkn8DO3IWkdsMbGdMhZWnmRgquHSwh0FD3uvXyiaq-uRxRTYe3-25xHmMjCHdyr/s1276/CPC%20winter%20precipitation%20outlook.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1276" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTQdo_NoJuVabh9iLZ7Egc4NhrvWerf580i5FfkFyczIYG-jbCdnKl_axtf01oP_6R98Vbk97JWk0ji60FAYKAFsLqjB1wDoSeZCj94gzkMOSzv93YSxGItyETMkm_Jvkn8DO3IWkdsMbGdMhZWnmRgquHSwh0FD3uvXyiaq-uRxRTYe3-25xHmMjCHdyr/s320/CPC%20winter%20precipitation%20outlook.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The CPC is
forecasting drier-than-normal conditions for much of the northern United
States. In particular, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest have the best
chance for drier than normal winter months. While the North experiences a
drier-than-normal winter, the majority of the South looks to see a
wetter-than-normal winter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m not as
sure about this winter as the CPC, as I see something that could be a bit
different. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What all
of this is hinting at:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">On average a
large part of the Northeast sees a slightly warmer than average winter from an
east based El Nino.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The frequent storms
moving west to east across the country carry warm air with them, increasing the
odds for mixed precipitation events including snow, sleet, freezing rain and
plain rain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But t<a name="_Hlk146896232">his winter is looking to be quite a bit different from
last winter, the things I showed show there is a trend developing that could
signal an overall colder winter for 2023-2024. <o:p></o:p></a></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk146896232;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Historically,
strong El Nino Modoki years tend to see more ridging of the polar jet stream
over the western United States and troughing over the east coast, which can
favor cooler weather here in the Northeast. There can also be quite a bit of
jet stream variability during an Modoki.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Everything I’m
seeing right now, is telling me this is likely be a hybrid El Nino Modoki event
for this upcoming winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino’s typically
feature a strong jet stream across the south which carries stormy, cool
conditions from Southern California to the Southeast. The subtropical jet data is hinting at a
powerful subtropical Jet, that will setup for January February and March. With
this there is a good chance for this to be a stormy winter for the East Coast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Generally it looks like the Winter of 2023/2024 might be off to a slower start across the central
and eastern United States. But current data indicate colder temperatures
and more snowfall potential in the mid and late part of Winter across the
central and eastern United States. The ECMWF and MMME both support the idea of
a powerful subtropical Jet for January, February and March. The temperature
gradient and the pressure gradient suggest we could have storms spinning up
into Nor’easters that run right into New England.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Many times,
so called, monster winters typically have a couple of very big snowstorms,
along with many smaller storms.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is looking to be an above average snowfall winter for the Middle Atlantic into Southern New England. For Most of Pennsylvania New York State, and Northern and Central New England total snow amounts would be around average, with western Pennsylvania, western New York State and the lake effect snowbelts generally seeing slightly below average snowfall. . <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s it
for part one. It’s too early to know more details, but we will see how this
trend goes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I will release part two most
likely end of October or the first part of November. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Part two
will cover what this year’s tropical activity can tell us, snow cover in
Siberia, solar activity, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. then part three
will release end of November into the first part of December.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Part two can be found <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-83680120969611886372023-09-27T23:56:00.012-04:002023-09-28T02:45:11.802-04:00As we head toward October, how is the season stacking up?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When I
posted my hurricane Outlook in the Spring, I said this would end up an active
season in spite of the idea of a moderate to strong El Nino; I outlined how
those record warm Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, would help
counter the El Nino. My call then was for 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes,
3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS could see 2-4 landfalls with one of them
possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So far, the
Atlantic hurricane season has been proceeding at a blistering pace. So far this
year, there have been 17 named storms, including an unnamed subtropical storm
off the East Coast in mid-January, and 6 hurricanes, of which, 3 were major category 3 or above, Category 5 Hurricane Lee and Category 4 hurricanes Franklin
and Idalia. Tropical Storm Harold made landfall in south Texas. After briefly
attaining Category 4 strength on August 30, Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Florida Big Bend as a high-end Category 3 hurricane, before making another landfall
in South Georgia as a tropical storm. Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into a Category 5
hurricane, then after narrowly missing New England, he made multiple landfalls
in Atlantic Canada. Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLrW-oiQqvyEwyiAExYe9BVCmkGf9fiDs9QhjyWRx2WhaOurnG6Cfqq64cAWvjf2KU3TZb0Az336icv37CVqrP3Xw233gvpynpvMxJVm9M0b-gRzTYlDnVWzbSEtSnc8pLdELhOLRF656wXm95TSWT1cpHIwizOwYnenv0N4L4e_q3MrvzlETbf70nr3bq/s1186/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="1186" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLrW-oiQqvyEwyiAExYe9BVCmkGf9fiDs9QhjyWRx2WhaOurnG6Cfqq64cAWvjf2KU3TZb0Az336icv37CVqrP3Xw233gvpynpvMxJVm9M0b-gRzTYlDnVWzbSEtSnc8pLdELhOLRF656wXm95TSWT1cpHIwizOwYnenv0N4L4e_q3MrvzlETbf70nr3bq/s320/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><p class="MsoNormal">Credit WPLG 10, Miami, Florida<o:p></o:p></p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the time of this posting, The North
Atlantic ACE Index stands at roughly 123.5 points, which is 153% higher than
the average for this time of the season. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgual9-PxDkWSSXt0j0U0idzA1B3claRJzg9quG4bw1AXx9Q57j0U6RGws1CQQ1ObkHeyvTZlQz5bNrjicpxaJsd6RSQqmI6A2blGIeE8X2N6fMpsfVv2dhmvKu5BUrxfrJCc65P1wWy6dKWPUyKqSxzuPFxU7nKHBUishOpuQaSvKQT3I0IqqyOhp04LAD/s1258/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1258" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgual9-PxDkWSSXt0j0U0idzA1B3claRJzg9quG4bw1AXx9Q57j0U6RGws1CQQ1ObkHeyvTZlQz5bNrjicpxaJsd6RSQqmI6A2blGIeE8X2N6fMpsfVv2dhmvKu5BUrxfrJCc65P1wWy6dKWPUyKqSxzuPFxU7nKHBUishOpuQaSvKQT3I0IqqyOhp04LAD/s320/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Credit
Dr. Ryan N. Maue</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
only 5 names left on the official list for the Atlantic Basin. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrgQTINHg7KEdnxRljdkXbq4wuSfJEriLt6altER-1TNCDf19B7rnf8TFIK3Cvd3_SFsW8XkGgTmE_iD30niJf5JMMey5QHfP_jRCEhCoy1cZaFp3jU1bcQh1JbDZmL-phsfE4pmeozxigfOt6imH7AU0Po4rw4JnbhpskRs5pHmpqXhJLHOaWZcPtYSEx/s844/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%205.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="844" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrgQTINHg7KEdnxRljdkXbq4wuSfJEriLt6altER-1TNCDf19B7rnf8TFIK3Cvd3_SFsW8XkGgTmE_iD30niJf5JMMey5QHfP_jRCEhCoy1cZaFp3jU1bcQh1JbDZmL-phsfE4pmeozxigfOt6imH7AU0Po4rw4JnbhpskRs5pHmpqXhJLHOaWZcPtYSEx/s320/ACE%20for%20End%20of%20Sept%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We still have
two months to go in this year’s hurricane season, based on the ACE index, we still
have 22% of the season's activity ahead of us for October and November. An
average hurricane season generates another four storms, two of which become
hurricanes, from October through the season's end. So, there is plenty of time
to add to the already impressive numbers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The SSTs in
the Atlantic basin are still at record warmth, particularly in the part of the
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico most prone to late-season storms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As we head
into October, the Cape Verde season with the African easterly waves in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean, and in the center of the Atlantic fades. This time of year,
we typically look for the formation of tropical cyclones to happen in the
northwestern Caribbean, or in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of
Florida, as well as the Western Atlantic along the East Coast. The reason for
this is that, SST in the Atlantic Ocean typically start to cool and wind shear
increases, so the majority of the tropical activity shifts back into the
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are usually still
very warm, and old frontal boundaries tend to hang around, which often can be
the focal point for tropical development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">On average,
October ranks third behind September and August for months with the most named
tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. In recent years, some of the strongest
and most impactful hurricanes have struck in October. Some of which were, Hurricane Hazel which made
landfall as a strong Category 4 between North and South Carolina on October 15,
1954, Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 which caused catastrophic damage in both
Mexico Beach and Panama City, Florida, with estimated sustained winds of 160
mph., Hurricane Delta in 2020 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Dating back
to the 1800s, there have been 172 tropical storms and 252 hurricanes in October.
Eight of those storms have reached the strongest strength: Category 5 with
sustained winds over 157 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Hurricane
season usually quiets down even more as we head into November, especially for
the U.S, with just 56 total in 171 years of record keeping. November U.S.
hurricane landfalls are extremely rare, with just four ever documented.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, if you
live along the Gulf Coast or along the East Coast, don't let your guard down
when the calendar turns to October.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-14129045326005057802023-09-06T15:59:00.003-04:002023-09-06T16:01:28.313-04:00How is the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season stacking up to my hurricane outlook at this time?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Season so far…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Atlantic
hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, but
tropical cyclones can still form outside of the time window at any time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That happened this year, with the formation
of a subtropical storm that formed off the Northeast Coast on January 16.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has kept
the storm unnamed, and have treated it as non-tropical.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRCrMNK18clv8fYFOypq6kh-Uy4096tccEvi_swsPRsro3bh9B2VT273CYxZaDpgjInOkzZvJ5ARrnfiY_ofXNRKyJ_xmT1vpyff538-2N3Lc5_GOXm92gg8QXWBrqlcBCCjZYxREyQe7nDgs2hfZGtNa3_rrW4J7i6JTRrTWuXs5Be0PN6O0CaTjf_fKf/s1920/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRCrMNK18clv8fYFOypq6kh-Uy4096tccEvi_swsPRsro3bh9B2VT273CYxZaDpgjInOkzZvJ5ARrnfiY_ofXNRKyJ_xmT1vpyff538-2N3Lc5_GOXm92gg8QXWBrqlcBCCjZYxREyQe7nDgs2hfZGtNa3_rrW4J7i6JTRrTWuXs5Be0PN6O0CaTjf_fKf/s320/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Since the
start the season has been active, with 13 named systems. Three of them have
been hurricanes, with two of those becoming major hurricanes. From June 1<sup>st</sup>
through the third full week of July we had four named tropical cyclones,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Tropical
Storm Arlene formed on June 1<sup>st</sup>, Tropical Storm Bret <a name="_Hlk144830980">formed on </a>June 19, Tropical Storm Cindy formed on June
24; then on July 14, Subtropical Storm Don formed. He then weakened to a
subtropical depression early on July 16. Later the same day he was deemed a
tropical depression. On July 17<sup>th</sup> he was upgraded to a Tropical
Storm; then he became a category one hurricane on July 22. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">After Don,
tropical activity in the Atlantic went on hiatus until the 20<sup>th</sup> of
August. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Tropical
Storm Emily formed on August 20<sup>th</sup>; Tropical Storm Franklin also
formed on August 20<sup>th</sup>; Franklin struggled in the Eastern Caribbean,
but after moving over the Dominican Republic, the environment become much more
favorable; On the 26<sup>th </sup>He became a Category 1 hurricane, then after
rapid intensification he became a Major Category 4 hurricane on August 28<sup>th</sup>,
Tropical Storm Gert formed on August 22. After wind shear tore him apart, just
enough circulation remained for him to make a comeback on September 1 when he
regained tropical storm status, Tropical Storm Harold, formed on August 22,
making landfall on Padre Island, Texas later on the same day, Tropical Storm
Idalia formed on August 27, August 29 I Idalia became a Category 1 hurricane,
then rapidly intensified to a Major Category 4 on August 30, just before
landfalling, Idalia underwent an eyewall replacement cycle just before
landfall, resulting in her loosing strength and making landfall in the Big Bend
of Florida as a Strong Category 3,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tropical
Storm Jose formed on August 31<sup>st</sup>, Tropical Storm Katia formed on
September 2<sup>nd</sup>, Tropical Storm Lee, formed on September 5<sup>th</sup>,
Lee will undoubtedly become the seasons third major hurricane of the 2023
hurricane season in a few days. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This
seasons Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index so far…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPCF9kTVeERtzGbOAxofZO1yI7fpnWqo0MsXNoDlBJhhNLEIFWmXMsIGNuaMLSyPaBmETugHBxHCW0izKMJ7rPlpjRE2CMjU7gxbKZ2JARc4492PwzHV7tPeuL0GvT9Vr7SkdCzPkp1TNkRc4Dy0USxuAiTMLM9S2tHw_XkXg9iF2bllMyT8RttwgmZkTT/s1175/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="1175" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPCF9kTVeERtzGbOAxofZO1yI7fpnWqo0MsXNoDlBJhhNLEIFWmXMsIGNuaMLSyPaBmETugHBxHCW0izKMJ7rPlpjRE2CMjU7gxbKZ2JARc4492PwzHV7tPeuL0GvT9Vr7SkdCzPkp1TNkRc4Dy0USxuAiTMLM9S2tHw_XkXg9iF2bllMyT8RttwgmZkTT/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Above, shows
this season's ACE index as of 18:00 UTC on September 6, as calculated by Dr.
Ryan N. Maue using data from the NHC, is approximately 59.335 units, which is
141% above average for this point in the season. Ace is used to express the
energy used by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime, the higher the ACE
number the stronger the storm and greater the potential for destruction it
has.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The ACE of a season is the sum of
the ACE for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and
duration of all the tropical storms in the season. This number represents sum
of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms
while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore,
tropical depressions are not included.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7aN9eniAsRCsOiqqKRQ8PTKE_zt6mdy_vV1r0DtxuDf2fwQkiu9K9zqjajue2-K2oC_6E9NIyn-z_dntrCdQ2HemfVwHdpEdJ8pTTWEvfyVvZ_LoUTyW9HkUs1UfT4dhYEKQYjMa-OyYLOqwL5uLH9phDZymQMKk0hVZry-dLUTiH9js2JM3kcaVadcr/s1035/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="1035" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7aN9eniAsRCsOiqqKRQ8PTKE_zt6mdy_vV1r0DtxuDf2fwQkiu9K9zqjajue2-K2oC_6E9NIyn-z_dntrCdQ2HemfVwHdpEdJ8pTTWEvfyVvZ_LoUTyW9HkUs1UfT4dhYEKQYjMa-OyYLOqwL5uLH9phDZymQMKk0hVZry-dLUTiH9js2JM3kcaVadcr/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The real
time ACE Statistics for the North Atlantic provided by Colorado State
University.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAGegfeBLJmFw3cwK0kQ8kov7qhnX9fYuisrF_FHxCMJHgd5Z6rxBAbEf9HcxsGYNG4cCm-pCNzxjEC367B0DEGF9SEUQn-pznj2rx24Y-mhk-2pBM0gf_7ACUpKKTLmpDI1dtSP6e0A_5KSTXaoi_TQ72JuAQsBimBhMPO1vs3P5O0Gzoz-J5_973rZuC/s776/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="776" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAGegfeBLJmFw3cwK0kQ8kov7qhnX9fYuisrF_FHxCMJHgd5Z6rxBAbEf9HcxsGYNG4cCm-pCNzxjEC367B0DEGF9SEUQn-pznj2rx24Y-mhk-2pBM0gf_7ACUpKKTLmpDI1dtSP6e0A_5KSTXaoi_TQ72JuAQsBimBhMPO1vs3P5O0Gzoz-J5_973rZuC/s320/2023%20hurricane%20season%20so%20far%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As seen in
the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. During
this period, there is a spike in activity accounting for 78% of tropical storm
days, 87% of category 1 and 2 hurricane days, and a whopping 96% of major
(category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days. So based on this, we’re now in the historical
peak of the hurricane season, so there is still a lot of time for more
hurricane this season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Why all
the activity this season? … <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
during an El Nino, Atlantic Basin tropical activity is below to well below the Climatological
average. This is even more likely during a strong El Nino. This is due to how
El Nino typically causes stronger upper-level winds along with stronger
easterly trade winds, leading to disruptive vertical windshear, which lead to a
lot of sinking air and much more stable atmospheric dynamics over the Caribbean,
Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
this year things are a bit different. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico have
seen quite a bit of shear, while the Eastern and Central Atlantic has seen much
less in the way of disruptive wind shear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In my hurricane
outlooks I said, the we’ve never seen the Atlantic Basin so warm, during an El
Nino. In the Outlook I said those record warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
in the Atlantic very well could counter what the El Nino would typically bring.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So based on
everything I was seeing at the time, my call was for 14-20 named storms, 8-12
hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS could see 2-4 landfalls with one of
them possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150. When we look at the numbers
so far this season, we can see my forecast is likely to verify. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When I
issued my final outlook in May, most of the other weather outlets were calling for
lower numbers than I was, but later on the weather outlets increased their
forecast numbers to be in line with what I was calling for. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, despite a strengthening El Nino, and the
likelihood for a strong to super El Nino, Those super warm SST, and atypical
favorable upper-level winds across the Main Development Region (MDR) of the
tropical Atlantic. The Atlantic Basin should remain active as we see these
tropical waves continue to push off the West African Coast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It remains
to be seen if the Caribbean and Gulf will see wind shear become more favorable
during the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of the season. But it is worrisome that we’re
now in what is called the Cape Verdie Season, which, runs in correlation to the
peak of Hurricane Season, between middle of August and through September. As
more numerus tropical waves move off of Africa this time of year conditions are
more favorable for development. This year with the record warm water, these
systems will have greater opportunity to strengthen into extremely powerful hurricanes,
due to the shear amount of time they have over open warm waters. I still think
the Northeast and Middle Atlantic are at an increased risk for a landfalling
impact this season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We will see
how things go from here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-50206555193815638872023-08-21T00:17:00.001-04:002023-08-21T00:17:22.374-04:00El Nino post write up for August<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I’ve been trying to post these little
updates on the developing El Nino every few weeks. This will cover the
developing conditions in the Pacific. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">El Nino and La Nina Explained</span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVlfyhs64IY" width="320" youtube-src-id="wVlfyhs64IY"></iframe></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">courtesy of NOAA’s National Ocean
Service<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The waters of the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean continue to warm as we approach the end of meteorological summer.
This El Nino is expected to continue strengthening over the Fall, then reach
its peak sometime in winter or early Spring 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">It’s only the middle of August now it’s
pushing global temperatures to the 1.5 ºC climate threshold,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly …<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Global SST…</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwFmt1zdMLSIGYc4qNM9GLPsic8WK6dxZIijI81sTnZiIm74beKPJcOihdMmerOw-3G5_cBmiVO-iloKwXfgj_yzMys5tWix8N7AJFOX59z2nKzmNwv3kYbZxBkKBstLEyQahoAgHltONMxjfi2BF3Oin9mJq-ntlRNzTNleKwn_kfOxUAg6vVRVA2OhGj/s1787/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwFmt1zdMLSIGYc4qNM9GLPsic8WK6dxZIijI81sTnZiIm74beKPJcOihdMmerOw-3G5_cBmiVO-iloKwXfgj_yzMys5tWix8N7AJFOX59z2nKzmNwv3kYbZxBkKBstLEyQahoAgHltONMxjfi2BF3Oin9mJq-ntlRNzTNleKwn_kfOxUAg6vVRVA2OhGj/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">courtesy of <a name="_Hlk143467707">Coral
Reef Watch</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pacific <a name="_Hlk143192297">SST…</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj584OtJMFMZFHyud1avDMtYYJtxRbo1IzOf2Y7j0dxkyrqvtLF1Zi_6Y3G-_cnj9vmFooOvoDqKM15PKFI9NhRGhqiGEjYXgOv7e4HGulVa21K5-BGIS-7OwjtKvhcUF5zWR-thP7MyYkeZJ7Kmk_bemr5RL-2RYwbfu6_ygCWO6Ain7QZkFl0rfOS8i_l/s1491/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_pacific_current.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1491" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj584OtJMFMZFHyud1avDMtYYJtxRbo1IzOf2Y7j0dxkyrqvtLF1Zi_6Y3G-_cnj9vmFooOvoDqKM15PKFI9NhRGhqiGEjYXgOv7e4HGulVa21K5-BGIS-7OwjtKvhcUF5zWR-thP7MyYkeZJ7Kmk_bemr5RL-2RYwbfu6_ygCWO6Ain7QZkFl0rfOS8i_l/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_pacific_current.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk143192334"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">courtesy
of</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Coral Reef Watch<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Atlantic SST…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0mPz4tnKfXaGa2Q8kyxKETF-8rPJWXupqPUETbgjqnzpGnVyANEo61eMK7i_kkXFFd_00RpCzNOHVXg46Q7SY1K55DmNuGjAhw2QpZtBmLV3LJesFNs_EZCk1yPASgEs-esLxBwOvPJMZRrwUvt6yYigo8hebBPEDm6CXas8TU4kVe0eCbxf9OvSWZMZW/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0mPz4tnKfXaGa2Q8kyxKETF-8rPJWXupqPUETbgjqnzpGnVyANEo61eMK7i_kkXFFd_00RpCzNOHVXg46Q7SY1K55DmNuGjAhw2QpZtBmLV3LJesFNs_EZCk1yPASgEs-esLxBwOvPJMZRrwUvt6yYigo8hebBPEDm6CXas8TU4kVe0eCbxf9OvSWZMZW/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Phases of El
Nino…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">There are East Based, Central Based, and
West Based<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Snow lovers hate East Based El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Central Based (Modoki) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A Modoki is just when the greatest
warm water anomalies are centered near the Dateline, this allows for a deep
trough to setup south of the Aleutians. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Modoki’s can be blocky in the Atlantic,
that’s not always the case. Modoki’s are a mixed bag.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The trough in the Pacific shifts back and
forth between the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, resulting in a up
and down pattern, where high latitude blocking shifts west and east between
Iceland and Canada. So, what type of winter events we see can vary greatly. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Modoki winters can experience wild swings in
temperature, resulting in rain, mix, and snow events. It’s all about the timing
of the cold air outbreaks and the current storm track. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">West Based sets up closer to ideal,
the 500 mb pattern along with the polar and subtropical jet, making for a
better chance for a snowy season.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Currently we’re in a very strong East
Based El Nino. But looking at the subsurface water temperature progression and
other signs that this is shifting west. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Strength of El
Nino…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Judging the impacts of an El Nino isn’t
just about the phase of ENSO we are in. But we have to include the strength of
the event too. You can have weak, moderate or strong El Nino phases. Typically,
stronger El Nino’s bring more impactful weather to parts of the United States,
especially for California and the southwest, compared to weaker El Nino phases.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The strength is determined by how much
above average the water temperatures are in the Niño 3.4 region.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgchYHih1xsXSpV_NS_YNNS5A-8eAESElHlgajig42uUxOjXgv_p_lhmQ6ZFu4KXBhH7-P_aS_twmC9WvFK67yVrVW4S875uvSyxUNEpR1Hc0lOAdRdBMvXJuVC3BhCWm3_IWiAdtILrgYjXLjZ0Mq4MnXBI_6WeHogJhCFYM9sT7dKa6g9txNjHTyR6j3/s957/ENSO%20Aug%201.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="957" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgchYHih1xsXSpV_NS_YNNS5A-8eAESElHlgajig42uUxOjXgv_p_lhmQ6ZFu4KXBhH7-P_aS_twmC9WvFK67yVrVW4S875uvSyxUNEpR1Hc0lOAdRdBMvXJuVC3BhCWm3_IWiAdtILrgYjXLjZ0Mq4MnXBI_6WeHogJhCFYM9sT7dKa6g9txNjHTyR6j3/s320/ENSO%20Aug%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Weak El Nino (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST
anomaly), Moderate El Nino (1.0 to 1.4), Strong El Nino (1.5 to 1.9) and Very
Strong (Super) (≥ 2.0) events.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The latest weekly SST departures are:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Niño 4 0.9ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Niño 3.4 1.2<a name="_Hlk143199671">ºC</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Niño 3 1.8ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Niño 1+2 3.3ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Currently the developing El Nino is
considered moderate to strong. The northern hemisphere ocean/atmosphere system
has coupled, with what is going on in the equatorial Pacific.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During El Nino we typically see an active
northern polar jet, with an active and amplified southern sub-tropical jet.
That has certainly been the case for the last several months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We should note that, for historical
context, the most accepted method of categorizing the intensity of El Nino’s
and their opposite, La Nina’s, utilize NOAA's three-month running mean SST
anomaly, known as the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), instead of looking at one week
or even one month's worth of data.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Subsurface water temperature.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kSOGSBIhqs1IiutOo6mZcVj22QfsJvmmnFGPOTEUUswKcNyUv5gmmPsaFcrfwa5ZHXAkq2aPjesRUlveJ5a6gf-v2G_Aa2zJxGYzYnsbZwdkhmIABB2Me96EFqDMwBQd7M0kIqm2BHOxt2SuWlwNRNtFBXR7zRN6AXBbDykrThzrszgggchvCH_p6Olz/s961/ENSO%20Aug%202.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="961" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kSOGSBIhqs1IiutOo6mZcVj22QfsJvmmnFGPOTEUUswKcNyUv5gmmPsaFcrfwa5ZHXAkq2aPjesRUlveJ5a6gf-v2G_Aa2zJxGYzYnsbZwdkhmIABB2Me96EFqDMwBQd7M0kIqm2BHOxt2SuWlwNRNtFBXR7zRN6AXBbDykrThzrszgggchvCH_p6Olz/s320/ENSO%20Aug%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Latest SOI index<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA9GLeoU7-38nLznamB_q5cQenh7SlwvOWmd9EjlhvWwiqeGFCqQJHvqRpwNdmPSVdfZ6Z_PrXXZxy9HV5R0sIEOdhv3-8ysAp8A8ghWfxC18k8pMIwKmYfyvCNIxcNbgl3c2XQDaU1hcNi17Oxz-vIN3sgZOHVPZBRf4b9VahWVydpE1c8JSZGEjMV1tv/s981/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="981" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA9GLeoU7-38nLznamB_q5cQenh7SlwvOWmd9EjlhvWwiqeGFCqQJHvqRpwNdmPSVdfZ6Z_PrXXZxy9HV5R0sIEOdhv3-8ysAp8A8ghWfxC18k8pMIwKmYfyvCNIxcNbgl3c2XQDaU1hcNi17Oxz-vIN3sgZOHVPZBRf4b9VahWVydpE1c8JSZGEjMV1tv/s320/Untitled.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The SOI is a tool we use to determine
how the ocean and atmosphere dynamics are evolving. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The current SOI is indicating the atmosphere
is responding to a weak to moderate El Nino signal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This could be part of the reason for some of
the disconnect we’re seeing in the ocean/atmosphere system. This is just one of
the reasons this El Nino, isn’t acting as a typical El Nino would. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most recent IRI plume indicates El Nino
will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-2024.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhah-q3Anv-m5aJ6s6uC3OCRpoHWeUruQ2cZwahPT4pN3kp-gwV-1kOUM0mUQd1ZoKwQVys7vocCVfib8-y_qNRwMzCoBu1MqSvplvIhAR2ump4i1LQJ9dffKc6dUeaxhh4D6NuwMMdF-PAh7im-m82Pn9uhxVlmdoYcppl2XwKNN9oIIhvrxdeHNFY0tlM/s1107/ENSO%20Aug%203.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1107" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhah-q3Anv-m5aJ6s6uC3OCRpoHWeUruQ2cZwahPT4pN3kp-gwV-1kOUM0mUQd1ZoKwQVys7vocCVfib8-y_qNRwMzCoBu1MqSvplvIhAR2ump4i1LQJ9dffKc6dUeaxhh4D6NuwMMdF-PAh7im-m82Pn9uhxVlmdoYcppl2XwKNN9oIIhvrxdeHNFY0tlM/s320/ENSO%20Aug%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Some of the factors
in play…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Yep,
I’m still talking about it.) underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean
occurred Jan. 13 to Jan. 15, 2022. The eruption blasted an enormous plume of
water vapor and enormous quantities of ash and volcanic gases into Earth's
stratosphere. All of this is still affecting the Stratosphere and in turn the
troposphere<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">there are a number of other factors
that have contributed to how this year has been, including going from La Nina
to El Nino, the current Solar cycle, the Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption leading
to a reduction in atmospheric particulates allowing more sunlight to reach the surface.
All of these factors, added to a generally warming planet. Mean the Planet is
going to warm even more, and become much more volatile. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">All of this is changing the pattern,
in ways that the outcome isn’t clear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
have never had a super warm Atlantic Basin during an El Nino. This is having a
big impact on the hurricane season. Typically, during El Nino, conditions over
the tropical Atlantic are more hostile resulting in fewer tropical cyclones.
But this year, the warm water in the Atlantic, is making for a likely above
average season. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like wise the Northeast has been extremely
humid this summer, again that is the result of how all of these factors are
interacting with each other. So, we’re more or less in uncharted territory when
it comes to how this current El Nino is going to act like. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A few thoughts on
what this might mean for winter 2023-2024…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A winter outlook involves the speed
and amount of Eurasia snow growth, sea ice extent, movement of the QBO, The
very warm Global Oceans. And many other things. Much of these things we can’t
look at for at least a couple of months; So, we have a long way to go, before
an outlook can be released. So, while it’s way too early to talk about
specifics, we can at least apply a broad brush to the subject.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We have to remember, no two El Nino’s
are alike, when looking only at the five previous strong El Nino’s, there are
some general commonalities to note headed into winter 2023-2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">El Nino years following triple-dip La
Nina.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQkH1p0sxQmU2uwj8gZrqQZ4VwdxqJv8dO90ET8dqYur5nLXCmPO-HcvzCxXih0NQgZgPDEowaDehwznvnr1ovaS8y_KmNI7OCOehmTBZ5oc20y0AHcF8l6vZ9kl3QLRsLv5MV03KjoRSiCHTZ3hui9fcMcPzGoFldRDEN5iSOY_9VERRfsTIVuvU0ddK7/s1101/el%20nino%20latest%20aug.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="1101" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQkH1p0sxQmU2uwj8gZrqQZ4VwdxqJv8dO90ET8dqYur5nLXCmPO-HcvzCxXih0NQgZgPDEowaDehwznvnr1ovaS8y_KmNI7OCOehmTBZ5oc20y0AHcF8l6vZ9kl3QLRsLv5MV03KjoRSiCHTZ3hui9fcMcPzGoFldRDEN5iSOY_9VERRfsTIVuvU0ddK7/s320/el%20nino%20latest%20aug.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">1957, 1976, 2002, 2023</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Some analogues I’m considering…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973,
1982-1983, 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2015-2016.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An El Nino Modoki is just when the
greatest warm water anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep
trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky
in the Atlantic<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">These analogues include East Based,
Central Based and Western Based. I have to include all of them, because this El
Nino is still strengthening and evolving. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we are starting to see shifting forcing
west. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So right now, we have a chance for
a Motoki or even a west based El Nino event. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m leaning toward the idea of this being a hybrid
Modoki and West Based event. But there is a chance this could end up as a basin
wide event. This too would make for a fairly decent winter as well. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The farther west this warming water can get
the greater the likelihood for low pressure setup up in the western Aleutians, this
would increase the odds for favorable high latitude blocking. How and where the
blocking set up will be a major deal this winter. The QBO will also have a lot
to say on how much blocking we see, a negative QBO and ascending would increase
the odds for more blocking.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In general, Northeast and Middle
Atlantic winters tend to be overall warmer and wetter during an El Nino. During
strong <a name="_Hlk143362545">El Nino</a>’s we tend to see less overall snow.
But as I’ve already said, no two El Nino’s are exactly the same.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">During the super El Nino’s of 1982-83
and 1997-98 there were big 2nd half of winter snow events. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The winters of 1957-58 and 1965-66
were cold.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">But El Nino is only one factor when it
comes to how a winter will end up being. As I’ve already pointed out Blocking
will be another major influence. Blocking involves the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Here is a look at snowfall from 1950
to 2017 in nine Northeast Cities, broken down by El Nino, La Nina and neutral seasons,
as well as those stronger El Nino seasons with a dominant positive or negative
NAO.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjla7X5VYPxvO9T-LBbRY_TKaUYVbujcqgMaxfp6kp4esBn3sJK_XjwXTK04DSqBL6-KIW1yM6t7j-LMedsX-NjXGo4R4p5fj2xtTu5XIyNaGB6B7RWX6F5eIwgXRajbeTz_qxelLuD-S2Mu_exUqdXMYHOBC3HgWpiTnCkXxzwdmjwlNrrxicwAxYlhNOU/s943/El%20Nino%20latest%20aug%202.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="943" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjla7X5VYPxvO9T-LBbRY_TKaUYVbujcqgMaxfp6kp4esBn3sJK_XjwXTK04DSqBL6-KIW1yM6t7j-LMedsX-NjXGo4R4p5fj2xtTu5XIyNaGB6B7RWX6F5eIwgXRajbeTz_qxelLuD-S2Mu_exUqdXMYHOBC3HgWpiTnCkXxzwdmjwlNrrxicwAxYlhNOU/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%20aug%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We can see there is the sharp contrast
in strong El Nino’s depending on whether they're dominated by a positive or
negative NAO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The strong El Nino seasons dominated
by a negative NAO produced the snowiest seasons. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">More North Atlantic Ocean blocking of the jet
stream in a negative NAO pattern would allow the polar jet stream to plunge
southward in the eastern U.S., bringing ample cold air. A powerful subtropical
jet stream, typical in strong El Nino seasons, would interact with the cold
air, perhaps coupling with the nosediving polar jet, making East Coast
snowstorms more possible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The 2009-10 season featured a moderate
El Nino dominated by strongly negative NAO. The result was the snowiest season
on record in Philadelphia and Washington D.C. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">and the second-snowiest season in Pittsburgh. Conversely,
with the exception of Washington D.C., all other Northeast cities tended to see
the least snow during strong El Nino /positive NAO seasons. These seasons often
featured the polar jet stream pushing cold air eastward across Canada rather
than plunging deep into the East. With the dominant subtropical jet stream
unable to meet cold air or interact with the polar jet, few Northeast
snowstorms would result.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The bottom line, I’m still thinking
this will be very strong El Nino, how this coming winter turns out will depend
on the degree of blocking. The overall pattern is such that nobody is sure what
kind of winter we’re going to see, but right now I’m thinking moderate to severe
end of the spectrum.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-49425513925797294272023-08-06T22:37:00.012-04:002023-09-01T19:20:10.692-04:00Rebecca's, 2023 fall outlook<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">September
1st marks the beginning of </span><a name="_Hlk142229817" style="font-size: 14pt;">meteorological fall</a><span style="font-size: 14pt;">. The
meteorological fall covers three months, from September to November. This is
the transition season from the warmest part of the year to the coldest part.
So, for this reason, it can be quite dynamic. But the vast majority of people
follow what it says on the Calendar. This is called astronomical fall (or the fall
equinox) which starts on Sept. 23 this year.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The summer
solstice occurs when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Cancer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For every place north of the Tropic of
Cancer, the sun is at its highest point in the sky and this is the longest day and
shortest night</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">of the
year. The winter solstice</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">occurs when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn and marks
the shortest day and longest night of the year<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During the
equinox, the sun crosses the plane of Earth's equator, making nighttime and
daytime (roughly) equal length all over the world. After the Spring equinox,
the days begin to get longer as the summer solstice gets closer. After the fall
equinox<a name="_Hlk142229240">, the days begin to get shorter as the winter
solstice gets closer</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But
regardless of which definition you follow fall is about sweaters, pumpkin
spiced lattes and the beautiful colors associated with the changing leaves.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This outlook
will be based on meteorological fall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Keep in mind
a seasonal outlook is an overall three-month trend. Weather forecasts are about
the weather expected over the next few days. While seasonal outlooks say
something about likely conditions averaged over the next few months. Seasonal
forecasts provide information about these long-term averages.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When I do a
seasonal outlook. I try to compile observational weather data from around the globe,
I take these teleconnections and compare that against historical weather data,
that are called analogues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of these
metrics and data elements are used to come up with an overall idea for the
coming season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on that data, and many
other factors including long range computer guidance… let’s take a look at how
fall 2023 may be like. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Due to conflicting
signals, I have a lower confidence in this outlook, than is typical for me.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Let’s look
at….</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A look at
the current global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv0WUfcqtt9gJUi_N9n5dm-VZq25XXOzCQBNmETRD2QtQ76dAjavGJSWgmChwP3T4bKWDdh2xsWzTeCbwikMHTSMUqK_kdRRcsnEqhgOlChygQ4t7h4Ka2LD6rk8eAa9uADhr5RupmwyuKHtKOE6X8abrPw_sPZRl0wEpde6oae87DVRptzwme2rPBCanh/s1081/fall%20outlook%202023%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="1081" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv0WUfcqtt9gJUi_N9n5dm-VZq25XXOzCQBNmETRD2QtQ76dAjavGJSWgmChwP3T4bKWDdh2xsWzTeCbwikMHTSMUqK_kdRRcsnEqhgOlChygQ4t7h4Ka2LD6rk8eAa9uADhr5RupmwyuKHtKOE6X8abrPw_sPZRl0wEpde6oae87DVRptzwme2rPBCanh/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt;">The
global SST forecast through October.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBg2fCqTMlAEIX6OU4odjMxjnItB29lJpE9FfsX5bMahk-MzuwLdDKaqo6hDL7JOqJ8t6CLtfTm3ad77mOGOoOBd7rMEolriK56b6xyF2IdJpPkwJk0Zm6fswaUHKa_3Fl_e0UZi99f2ZQSV3yi2ZvhRjv24FCBh7Cz4anXxGFJqcRtirwXKqZZuvQn5bV/s1083/fall%20outlook%202023%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1083" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBg2fCqTMlAEIX6OU4odjMxjnItB29lJpE9FfsX5bMahk-MzuwLdDKaqo6hDL7JOqJ8t6CLtfTm3ad77mOGOoOBd7rMEolriK56b6xyF2IdJpPkwJk0Zm6fswaUHKa_3Fl_e0UZi99f2ZQSV3yi2ZvhRjv24FCBh7Cz4anXxGFJqcRtirwXKqZZuvQn5bV/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Images courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>The Pacific…</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This year’s
El Nino started earlier than the average on the climatical schedule. Typically,
El Nino starts in late summer or early fall. So, it has a lot of time to grow
stronger over the fall. El Nino’s impact here in the Northeast in the summer
and fall are hard to quantify, but most times, normally El Nino hits hardest in
December through February, but given that this El Nino is one to two months
early mean that we could see some impacts this fall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During El
Nino, on average the eastern CONUS sees cooler temperatures and drier than
average conditions during the Summer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk142137357"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) </span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">in the tropical Pacific are exceeding
El Nino thresholds. Looking at the data, the El Nino is still rapidly
intensifying<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The current
SST anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region (where El Nino is measured) is +0.865°C. So,
we’re in a moderate El Nino <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ohOBS6gWRBi8DLmY8yo2jQyoSFegzrj7trvhhuh65MaURQovQQLp-Ljn3Ne7QohqHZzlGQfgzI8sWdd2hmYot8MLhCbBdDgmN98ahi9Zpp3AyE9Vo4-AKLkVpB8KjoRAL827rFLQwl1eaQss4IWCQrqsv02sZuZo8DYLhIH5JeAjuLKSY_N30pGi0heQ/s841/fall%20outlook%202023%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="841" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ohOBS6gWRBi8DLmY8yo2jQyoSFegzrj7trvhhuh65MaURQovQQLp-Ljn3Ne7QohqHZzlGQfgzI8sWdd2hmYot8MLhCbBdDgmN98ahi9Zpp3AyE9Vo4-AKLkVpB8KjoRAL827rFLQwl1eaQss4IWCQrqsv02sZuZo8DYLhIH5JeAjuLKSY_N30pGi0heQ/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">SST
consolidation Nino 3.4 image</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The strength
of an El Nino is determined by how much above average the water temperatures
are in the Nino 3.4 region. The stronger the El Nino the greater it’s impacts.
I posted in the blog, about what is a Super El Nino which you can find here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 0.5ºC above average = Weak El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 1.0ºC above average = Moderate El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 1.5ºC above average = Strong El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
Temperatures of 2.0+ above average = Super El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The
Atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is farther along with coupling with
the developing El Nino, than the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but the SH should
come into line over the next few weeks. The dynamics are complicated, but
essentially, we have to look at the Sea Surface Temperatures along the equator
and also how the atmosphere is changing as a result of those warm SSTs.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As the
process continues, the El Nino will become very strong over the next couple of
months, with water temperatures becoming well above average in the Nino 3.4
region (where El Nino is measured). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
SST could end up +2.5°C or more by the time we make it into the heart of Fall
and through the coming winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl0i_lHW0YcP5-7mvqtyZDmtDmwHLu1JoFqTQn1wNj1QpBkpbE1_DKNkdROfDCpx_Xk4Ak2x7SYJXOFQBlS4zEFXh3E4x1l0FUDc6W_NTawFTMakA3deXVmgztME1fjBIUWc-YVEXkeWUXVhmo8P7kivYPU8om3HJmsdnLj6NjVY7Hnkb7DrJnkUkwsNyz/s914/fall%20outlook%202023%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="914" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl0i_lHW0YcP5-7mvqtyZDmtDmwHLu1JoFqTQn1wNj1QpBkpbE1_DKNkdROfDCpx_Xk4Ak2x7SYJXOFQBlS4zEFXh3E4x1l0FUDc6W_NTawFTMakA3deXVmgztME1fjBIUWc-YVEXkeWUXVhmo8P7kivYPU8om3HJmsdnLj6NjVY7Hnkb7DrJnkUkwsNyz/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Monthly sea
surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region <a name="_Hlk142137219">image</a></span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">courtesy of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology.</span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk142137219;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A majority
of the Global climate models are calling for SST in the equatorial Pacific to
be at least 2.0</span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">ºC</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> above average. So at least a strong El Nino is a good bet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj612MsO0MsoD9knubOo6XqqLwyGmLUlsD3tX1mWlVl2w2MVXmd__c-UBrEkXFVHSMrds5yDvV0IOwudM79zS0njA-hkwqww8FYaaBJVAk_0BVr9L2MzQDgDE-MoOv3dADOgNFnIGEMvVHAa49k3ptcf596ALn2v9ss7fCTsNVwXFW3Fe_N9NXkjhVxn4A6/s969/fall%20outlook%202023%205.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="969" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj612MsO0MsoD9knubOo6XqqLwyGmLUlsD3tX1mWlVl2w2MVXmd__c-UBrEkXFVHSMrds5yDvV0IOwudM79zS0njA-hkwqww8FYaaBJVAk_0BVr9L2MzQDgDE-MoOv3dADOgNFnIGEMvVHAa49k3ptcf596ALn2v9ss7fCTsNVwXFW3Fe_N9NXkjhVxn4A6/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk142137339"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk142137339;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
during strong El Nino’s there is a persistent extended Pacific Jet Stream with
an amplified storm track. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>The Atlantic…</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s a fact
that most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are at or near record warm SST
for this time of year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGCYuKpBd_cOl1ix78znJIGaWa6YffS_4pRJRnJTcLtztzt9hK4zxIZXB0Ja5WAkARsr6bgoz_m6gx7N0AoZ2isBzOTYoSbe2Ad9izEOG1VzpHc2GCmLXAJEuubCSuFrCtU1rIw9tMlQr-YT9zI0LjX2w09fdETeW_Govo5mmvveqIeubRNBcMBpW2PsDo/s1024/Fall%20outlook%206.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGCYuKpBd_cOl1ix78znJIGaWa6YffS_4pRJRnJTcLtztzt9hK4zxIZXB0Ja5WAkARsr6bgoz_m6gx7N0AoZ2isBzOTYoSbe2Ad9izEOG1VzpHc2GCmLXAJEuubCSuFrCtU1rIw9tMlQr-YT9zI0LjX2w09fdETeW_Govo5mmvveqIeubRNBcMBpW2PsDo/s320/Fall%20outlook%206.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYJo_xOKrfNrBf25Larh6tDYLS5y1gSCjpA1dG2tq4bNvaZuk1VTjYtdn6FFeoN3BwNSGTl5ZScPf3jZwLTvsfwU_TYc-kCHFKwAn4obtgJwd_KuIYNfxfcGvlwDd8F3maxNBqit51SGxwhk2w9YxFhrEdfcklXrf1zJYumkhQ8ty2lEtkqm4a20jevdSw/s1024/fall%20outlook%207.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYJo_xOKrfNrBf25Larh6tDYLS5y1gSCjpA1dG2tq4bNvaZuk1VTjYtdn6FFeoN3BwNSGTl5ZScPf3jZwLTvsfwU_TYc-kCHFKwAn4obtgJwd_KuIYNfxfcGvlwDd8F3maxNBqit51SGxwhk2w9YxFhrEdfcklXrf1zJYumkhQ8ty2lEtkqm4a20jevdSw/s320/fall%20outlook%207.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk142227154"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk142227154;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The
super-hot Atlantic Basin Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are going to be a big
wild card, not only for the hurricane season, but also for the fall pattern. It
remains to be seen how the very warm Atlantic will counter the impact of a
moderate or strong El Nino, for that reason there are no great analogs for this
fall</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">We have
never seen a moderate to strong El Nino with Atlantic SST this war. Most other
years with a very warm Atlantic either had neutral ENSO or La Nina.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These temperatures
could correlate to warmer temperatures for parts of the CONUS. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><b>Other
teleconnections...</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NAO is
currently weak it looks to stay weak for the next 7-10 days, then it should
head more toward negative …leads to a blocky pattern<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Pacific
North American Pattern (PNA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">PNA positive
Associated with troughing in the Aleutian Islands and ridging in western Canada
leading to more of a NW flow. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Atlantic
Oscillation (AO)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">AO negative
means a slower hemispheric flow due to that higher latitude blocking<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b style="font-size: 14pt;">The current
pattern...</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Is being
driven by convection in the Pacific, which has the trough dominating in the Aleutians
leading to a ridge over the western CONUS into western Canada as well as the
overall troughing in the east. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is why
we’ve seen all these stronger cold fronts dropping out of Canada and moving
through the Northeast, driving out the warmer temperatures and high humidity.
Then after a few days of cooler less humid air, we warm back up for a couple of
days. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This back and forth looks to
continue through at least the end of August<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Month by
Month…</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">September</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
temperatures:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The current active
pattern with troughs dropping in out of Canada looks to basically continue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">After a possible warm start, I’m leaning
toward western PA, NYS and NE ending up average to slightly below average
overall. While Western Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware ending up
average to slightly above average<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For precipitation:
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m leaning
toward the entire region ending up above average overall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">October<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We should
end up with ridging out west with more low pressure troughing over the
Northeast<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
temperatures:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m leaning
toward the entire region seeing generally average temperatures overall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
precipitation: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m leaning
toward the entire region seeing generally being average overall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With more of an active storm track over the
Plains extending into the Great Lakes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">November <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on how
the pattern looks to go, November should feature above average heights over the Northwest US and Western Canada. This should lead to pronounced troughing over
the Northeast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By November the El Nino
should be quite strong<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
temperatures:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m leaning
toward the entire region ending up below average overall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For
precipitation: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’m leaning
toward far eastern Pennsylvania, New York State, New England into Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey above average overall. With the rest of Pennsylvania and
Western Maryland well above average overall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">With the
below average temperatures and above average precipitation, it could be a
recipe for a few bouts of snow during November. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Frost freeze...</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The date at
which the first freezing temperature (32°F or less) is measured can occur at
various times and locations in the United States. Year-to-year variability is
expected due to various factors.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXA1eXk2fQWnwGmwRElqvklJJd1ocjqYwrnLNRFtffCqsXrwiEZCijAT942H5jJYbHS9IvWlWz-S0Je-EI1yhFfflNNQ6jMa8WSK5094sk8sIs84iJzwRA2h2bP4oVFwWkK7qJfOvGUNCyn1i7J9uSHKo-qlUjw9_7ypSvrwFAUPTDNXOcEcHcC2M7QKGD/s1001/fall%20outlook%202023%208.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1001" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXA1eXk2fQWnwGmwRElqvklJJd1ocjqYwrnLNRFtffCqsXrwiEZCijAT942H5jJYbHS9IvWlWz-S0Je-EI1yhFfflNNQ6jMa8WSK5094sk8sIs84iJzwRA2h2bP4oVFwWkK7qJfOvGUNCyn1i7J9uSHKo-qlUjw9_7ypSvrwFAUPTDNXOcEcHcC2M7QKGD/s320/fall%20outlook%202023%208.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Climatological
date of median first 32 F freeze.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>image courtesy of US Dept of Commerce.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Western New
York State and Western Pennsylvania could see an earlier start to the
frost/freeze season, with the rest of the region being closer to the
climatological average.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">For mid to
end of October given this idea of general troughing setting up, we should see
parts of the Northeast see some snow events.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For November
… an active jet stream, pulling moisture out of the Gulf into the Northeast,
along with more in the way of colder conditions. I think most of the region
will have a good chance of several mixed events and seeing at least one larger
snow event, Maryland and Delaware, the odds for a larger snow event are rather
low. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Breakdown...</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But
generally, this fall should be more in the way of wet than is typical. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that’s
it. I hope you enjoyed reading this outlook. I’m always grateful to be one of
your trusted weather sources. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-74847099866190040642023-07-19T22:32:00.000-04:002023-07-19T22:32:04.669-04:00Another update on the developing El Nino<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This post
won’t breakdown the definitions, terms, or meanings. For those you can go to my
other El Nino post from earlier this year. You will find the links with in the
post. This will cover the important data. It will also cover a little on how this
El Nino could impact the hurricane season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">My last El
Nino update can be found <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/06/another-el-nino-update.html" target="_blank">here</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Another El Nino post can be found <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/06/el-nino-is-officially-here.html" target="_blank">here</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I wanted to
post a quick El Nino update. There is no doubt that El Nino is in play, when we
look at the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdFbclFJdGm-zAFURCyc7L7nxn321Mdxx5BpJfVT7G_u0KmQS9lpGFPrO-wfnnPCC79mfZbt_ptrpbhKabecoY7PYJjQ2UTKsOHHUSp9ql2vEjcQqj-VE_NnwOTyX6IDpfnTjcFQNV9KD5zkkQQLZ5FC071yZ8JB9kmcYY1kiQdG91CRTO2X5-ySaPyuAC/s1024/El%20Nino%20july%20latest%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdFbclFJdGm-zAFURCyc7L7nxn321Mdxx5BpJfVT7G_u0KmQS9lpGFPrO-wfnnPCC79mfZbt_ptrpbhKabecoY7PYJjQ2UTKsOHHUSp9ql2vEjcQqj-VE_NnwOTyX6IDpfnTjcFQNV9KD5zkkQQLZ5FC071yZ8JB9kmcYY1kiQdG91CRTO2X5-ySaPyuAC/s320/El%20Nino%20july%20latest%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb5-E6KTvc9xF0yc2C8pCEE0anVwQ4TIGauNVbGmx0zqgUcDPFQs28mQv65hC6Fiaj8bk-U675nisXZKkQm84dmq33A1mqoLx05rM6aXRx9sTG-ku5rHR51UN2B01tnAadixaHVaGHSd94L1x7WQBUWogwv6O4QWNzflIxsKESKEsixKEjINByATgu9ix7/s1024/el%20nino%20july%20latest%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb5-E6KTvc9xF0yc2C8pCEE0anVwQ4TIGauNVbGmx0zqgUcDPFQs28mQv65hC6Fiaj8bk-U675nisXZKkQm84dmq33A1mqoLx05rM6aXRx9sTG-ku5rHR51UN2B01tnAadixaHVaGHSd94L1x7WQBUWogwv6O4QWNzflIxsKESKEsixKEjINByATgu9ix7/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><a name="_Hlk140695391" style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Credit</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">: tropical tidbits</span></div></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">A look at
the SST and subsurface anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggAanIAG2pRzQmZoWTSx2IhYre7iFAIcWlmBgQamM5umiMGc3tUj3s8n4iCRQ7G_d_bqmFo7Rvi-nGkh_nQslw_LxY4NyKKo3lU47sXD_7k0dka-qXnizvaiTYrRqDEEUhGjeUv6rz_1O762yB2HfpeNEUfaxLEBZs0F70x0dcA91gAa3UWSp0NoDb19TQ/s2640/el%20nino%20july%20latest%206.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2640" data-original-width="2295" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggAanIAG2pRzQmZoWTSx2IhYre7iFAIcWlmBgQamM5umiMGc3tUj3s8n4iCRQ7G_d_bqmFo7Rvi-nGkh_nQslw_LxY4NyKKo3lU47sXD_7k0dka-qXnizvaiTYrRqDEEUhGjeUv6rz_1O762yB2HfpeNEUfaxLEBZs0F70x0dcA91gAa3UWSp0NoDb19TQ/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%206.jpg" width="278" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlr8JvELnpyQSvFPZr8z7Tsqh5NXJpBT7yqLiR17hJ065Z0GKX4xTABYp9dz1XUiHESmUEnswzB_rprqJM_pps7KYsRYIJzETPXEQCfpG4fbqhgiOTB1vYNUrxo5GqDeGFveYyxFUWVIxpWvEk4ddR6F7Bm_o9KFrICsMX2C86KQmKN3WCSZ7adibP8RaD/s2295/el%20nino%20july%20latest%205.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="2295" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlr8JvELnpyQSvFPZr8z7Tsqh5NXJpBT7yqLiR17hJ065Z0GKX4xTABYp9dz1XUiHESmUEnswzB_rprqJM_pps7KYsRYIJzETPXEQCfpG4fbqhgiOTB1vYNUrxo5GqDeGFveYyxFUWVIxpWvEk4ddR6F7Bm_o9KFrICsMX2C86KQmKN3WCSZ7adibP8RaD/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Credit:
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS.</span></div></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The eastern
and central equatorial Pacific stand out. But we can also see SST in large
parts of the global oceans are also experiencing above average SST, The Main
Development Region (MDR) in the Atlantic is seeing record warmth for this time
of year.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now,
the El Nino is considered weak, but it is developing rapidly, and is knocking
on the door of a moderate El Nino. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The four El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mentoring
regions are showing El Nino conditions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With
the central and eastern Pacific SSTs exceeding El Nino thresholds.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhgx9ywo3tsi2RJ-bIJJGwfhlUlVL5TK_n6ctR0JBWfublMsTq1eEMbNhsGVray4V9pg9GAMT08e-LO97XE5jtPqSyTy3lW3UAmmeLVtjbsXKx1SaLcKJIUOwKsfOcy2bXb9PNY-4Vdd-rJ25YpJKUfe6BqCfb3SN66E2SKqq1KZT3lBJxtpfQOIO_rft/s511/el%20nino%20july%20latest%20regions.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="328" data-original-width="511" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhgx9ywo3tsi2RJ-bIJJGwfhlUlVL5TK_n6ctR0JBWfublMsTq1eEMbNhsGVray4V9pg9GAMT08e-LO97XE5jtPqSyTy3lW3UAmmeLVtjbsXKx1SaLcKJIUOwKsfOcy2bXb9PNY-4Vdd-rJ25YpJKUfe6BqCfb3SN66E2SKqq1KZT3lBJxtpfQOIO_rft/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%20regions.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
three-month-average Nino-3.4 Index, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), was 0.5 °C for
April–June 2023. In order to qualify as an official El Nino year, the ONI must
be at or above the threshold for at least 5 three-month periods. In this case,
El Nino conditions would need to last through at least the August–October
average to qualify.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl8Ojk2-oFoKiI8QNQQj9eJZjvR9K3PyROgbVZRMQQ8YQXixvc6M2I7Ct4780flX-ur4oo9vCfcbHh6xEBcIk8n9Dcm0_y7XlnML1yJfLqaFtj-OUvb3I6_kyOh9FyMG3a4SJatm3sQh2ueJgWzDvTJ-dd6Q7kA8AKnSkIMIFtR9Ty5FSQcHseB5dySQZF/s768/el%20nino%20july%20latest%2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="768" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl8Ojk2-oFoKiI8QNQQj9eJZjvR9K3PyROgbVZRMQQ8YQXixvc6M2I7Ct4780flX-ur4oo9vCfcbHh6xEBcIk8n9Dcm0_y7XlnML1yJfLqaFtj-OUvb3I6_kyOh9FyMG3a4SJatm3sQh2ueJgWzDvTJ-dd6Q7kA8AKnSkIMIFtR9Ty5FSQcHseB5dySQZF/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%2012.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifnE73GBUVwqz-bs1QBV1-3uuRCwY2A0RvZ8ORUZXRGgNK49YkHUqGRTOSXtAYUgxVfG8QGBLdnJH-gA9Nt2YX5UisVBWMVSq6idi2X3jOSeKZDT_qxnFn5lln8Lp6wdXr-BEVJfcDh703GAPGu7-aBR_rl-97UkTaWuVrN3J3ryKT6tj0tIIqPES7woQ0/s768/el%20nino%20july%20latest%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="768" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifnE73GBUVwqz-bs1QBV1-3uuRCwY2A0RvZ8ORUZXRGgNK49YkHUqGRTOSXtAYUgxVfG8QGBLdnJH-gA9Nt2YX5UisVBWMVSq6idi2X3jOSeKZDT_qxnFn5lln8Lp6wdXr-BEVJfcDh703GAPGu7-aBR_rl-97UkTaWuVrN3J3ryKT6tj0tIIqPES7woQ0/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%203.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyj35uXne52tRqfZwlfzNqgKpGnRpsklf0NKc9qIIi-fKdoHJigvZzDEj04FFT_XFhmX0FVeFbZ6if04k7yZZfIkIvyDGiQ27xfYO4ZD4e4lwnBn24TND00WucQiBzdMjmVwuFXb_FfeIRYnDCSG4qIBOmGTKVR1wUxg_lE0wCF1260cdCYndiXJ9G-Wp/s768/el%20nino%20july%20latest%2034.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="768" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyj35uXne52tRqfZwlfzNqgKpGnRpsklf0NKc9qIIi-fKdoHJigvZzDEj04FFT_XFhmX0FVeFbZ6if04k7yZZfIkIvyDGiQ27xfYO4ZD4e4lwnBn24TND00WucQiBzdMjmVwuFXb_FfeIRYnDCSG4qIBOmGTKVR1wUxg_lE0wCF1260cdCYndiXJ9G-Wp/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%2034.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5-kWia2uJJGkznCLdDjo0xVznyVn2o1-Le-CSX-1AIHMrKmZOqNXQms5EdR27w4aV6ov0ujMXki19NwrqV5mH4DCaC_S0wy_QKRfx2eK-2_5GzkqMXEZoxCq3wbidrwfKM5B32P2zhxnzbn6f9ljlHppn9sepyyQ7dEE9Yf6OmYwMW_cdBzOSbaby0Ab3/s768/el%20nino%20july%20latest%204.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="768" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5-kWia2uJJGkznCLdDjo0xVznyVn2o1-Le-CSX-1AIHMrKmZOqNXQms5EdR27w4aV6ov0ujMXki19NwrqV5mH4DCaC_S0wy_QKRfx2eK-2_5GzkqMXEZoxCq3wbidrwfKM5B32P2zhxnzbn6f9ljlHppn9sepyyQ7dEE9Yf6OmYwMW_cdBzOSbaby0Ab3/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%204.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Credit:
tropical tidbits</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2-year
history of sea surface temperatures in the Nino-3.4 region of the tropical
Pacific for all events evolving into El Nino since 1950 (gray lines) and the
current event (purple line). NOAA Climate.gov image based on a graph by Emily
Becker and monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwWzNvvGD3N3sbfLjJvkKcR56yTfTO_Hna0tWQpbUZh1W3qcNxLMPWBg_qhd5QCTEU3ww2S6x-jx1uc_3VyM_h40OHbAuUjwj-5nT8vrOxipXEJND1S6MmW-Qj9qlX2GAkgcN6IlbHGyeS9J-haKVRGTlGgbRUq76cEaVEfw4dZqiMrTxzrmv9Ge0XSkns/s982/enso%20july%201.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="982" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwWzNvvGD3N3sbfLjJvkKcR56yTfTO_Hna0tWQpbUZh1W3qcNxLMPWBg_qhd5QCTEU3ww2S6x-jx1uc_3VyM_h40OHbAuUjwj-5nT8vrOxipXEJND1S6MmW-Qj9qlX2GAkgcN6IlbHGyeS9J-haKVRGTlGgbRUq76cEaVEfw4dZqiMrTxzrmv9Ge0XSkns/s320/enso%20july%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">As of July
19</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size: 14pt;">, the daily contribution to SOI calculation is at -20.38. The
past month has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shift back to neutral
levels, with the 30-day SOI at +3.03 for the 30 days ending 16 July. The 90-day
SOI is outside El Niño thresholds at -6.03. Sustained changes in wind, cloud
and broad-scale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet
been observed. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become
fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. But given the rapid SST
increases both at the surface and subsurface, I do think coupling will occur sooner
rather than later.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvjMPkFbs8wMIx98lBUL3wtRO5F_sQaI4g3Z13XDyZBE5HskqVVYsUEdabrU1jXQiWp3hGDEUDuRTUKFXp-2AvyXZ7zpY5Uig-abIVUYlxV3XvqCzQsKR_JuNrjCkh_MOpAq7sLdAO9ycgW4dXVYpDeDn_-WATnj83GLgAwM8kZeLcARfKfnGeFH0ybmTs/s1240/el%20nino%20july%20latest%207.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="1240" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvjMPkFbs8wMIx98lBUL3wtRO5F_sQaI4g3Z13XDyZBE5HskqVVYsUEdabrU1jXQiWp3hGDEUDuRTUKFXp-2AvyXZ7zpY5Uig-abIVUYlxV3XvqCzQsKR_JuNrjCkh_MOpAq7sLdAO9ycgW4dXVYpDeDn_-WATnj83GLgAwM8kZeLcARfKfnGeFH0ybmTs/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%207.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Credit the
Queensland, Australia Government website<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The most
recent IRI plume shows the models favor the El Nino to continue to strengthen,
right into Winter 2023-2024.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkt9fauK9rJT6VDbqdnmyW5CijhyTCSKs3cE_QrcjzQTl7aJ69wZJkwHAQVp5MgX6tRLGZPA7BencdhmzHK6b8kPSXzlc6Fg0W_0w0NyaZwiHAT2qJ_uZMvwpgdmStfj8TLNa8nDO0rq_w1JNJIYoLsR8VKIhRSsd8MrrbVI509apHm_YCu0ghHBd6GG2q/s1048/el%20nino%20july%20latest%209.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1048" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkt9fauK9rJT6VDbqdnmyW5CijhyTCSKs3cE_QrcjzQTl7aJ69wZJkwHAQVp5MgX6tRLGZPA7BencdhmzHK6b8kPSXzlc6Fg0W_0w0NyaZwiHAT2qJ_uZMvwpgdmStfj8TLNa8nDO0rq_w1JNJIYoLsR8VKIhRSsd8MrrbVI509apHm_YCu0ghHBd6GG2q/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%209.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Credit:
International Research Institute for Climate and Society. We will likely be dealing with at least a moderate El Nino through Spring 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">To read
about what is a super El Nino click <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/what-is-super-el-nino.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All models suggest a positive IOD is
likely to develop in late winter or early spring. A positive IOD will enhance the El Nino's impact.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The
Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, but some models indicate it
will strengthen in the eastern Maritime Continent or Western Pacific region over
the next 14 days. Should this happen, this may contribute to El Nino
development by weakening trade winds. Allowing the SST to warm even more.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp1UdgAzdakdYfhPdrmS8Z1AMShElS111iJHy30Map2-8EZHzmyXDVpLd3xL4apvkxc0ngmEIT7d081PlccTI3d1h0uSHOqzlbURK9z8EM2hoEiAAxahZVb9wiwn2CiD519BVW9GoG1f1F2oOsclWVv57KxuqfXU8-AXNaj16_b7lrGHGw1zv_0sLLKOC9/s650/el%20nino%20july%20latest%208a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp1UdgAzdakdYfhPdrmS8Z1AMShElS111iJHy30Map2-8EZHzmyXDVpLd3xL4apvkxc0ngmEIT7d081PlccTI3d1h0uSHOqzlbURK9z8EM2hoEiAAxahZVb9wiwn2CiD519BVW9GoG1f1F2oOsclWVv57KxuqfXU8-AXNaj16_b7lrGHGw1zv_0sLLKOC9/s320/el%20nino%20july%20latest%208a.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The hurricane
season…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">From a
forecasting stand point, the 2023 hurricane season is going to be more
challenging than usual because of conflicting signals. We have a strong El Nino
developing. But we also have the SST in the Atlantic being extremely warm in
many areas, which could enhance storms. As I’ve said before, we have never seen
the Atlantic so warm during an El Nino. So, with both ocean basins being very
warm, the battle will be around which ocean is warmer? and how will that effect
atmospheric connections?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
during an El Nino, we see more stable air and stronger westerly wind at upper
levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic. The increase in vertical
wind shear, leads to the developing tropical waves having their tops sheared,
So El Nino generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes
than average tend to form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of
Atlantic hurricane season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So far, the 2023
Atlantic hurricane season, has been unusual. There have been four named storms
and one unnamed storm back in February. Having named storms develop in the MDR this
early is almost unheard of. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are three
main reasons for all the development in the MDR this early; one is the record
warm SSTs, two is the lack of dry air out over the Atlantic, three was the general
lack of vertical wind shear out over the Atlantic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Bermuda/Azores
sub-tropical high was atypically weak during May and June, this led to less Saharan
air layer dry and dusty air out over the Atlantic. The weaker subtropical low also
contributed to reduced wind shear. Those warm SST in the MDR also helped reduce
windshear. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So, with the Atlantic so warm, we will likely see less
overall shear than we would during a typically moderate to strong El Nino. Depending
on how the MJO phases work out along with the timing of the Tropical waves, we
will have the potential for tropical activity in the Atlantic, leading to average
to above average numbers of tropical storms or hurricanes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To read more
on my 2023 hurricane outlook you can go <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">This is
still looking to be strong El Nino. Since El Nino’s typically become their
strongest during Northern Hemisphere winter, we will likely be dealing with a
strong or even super El Nino for late Fall and through Winter 2023-2024. Since
this is going to be the first strong El Nino with the Atlantic Basin so warm,
we’re going to learn a lot on the subject and there will undoubtedly be
surprises along the way. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">I will likely
post another El Nino update some time in August.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-72706119323307085372023-06-25T19:08:00.008-04:002023-06-25T20:26:44.201-04:00Another El Nino update… <p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I wanted to
post on the evolution of the developing El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
surface temperature anomalies<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-xsuqeCTY1hFjL5AlFegiGV6XnxwHi4zqBypfZrnCILqhdEsbosqHVZ6Rs_vpZaqTVHFQG5oP1wFBmlhYtR4QUvxTBs0a7b-d7vm_97kj7llP9zF0ZZLzqxKkX-m0jJNc1CQOY2C91ZPmeDUgco1kNom1grCXnzzQ-8UwY6apv34FyCYlszDZduGKqOHa/s1787/El%20Nino%20latest%205.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-xsuqeCTY1hFjL5AlFegiGV6XnxwHi4zqBypfZrnCILqhdEsbosqHVZ6Rs_vpZaqTVHFQG5oP1wFBmlhYtR4QUvxTBs0a7b-d7vm_97kj7llP9zF0ZZLzqxKkX-m0jJNc1CQOY2C91ZPmeDUgco1kNom1grCXnzzQ-8UwY6apv34FyCYlszDZduGKqOHa/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%205.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The waters
of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean are continuing to heat up; in fact, since
NOAA issued an official watch, El Nino has been developing rapidly and looks to
be building towards a strong El Nino. NOAA has us now at an El Nino alert. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the indications are pointing towards
and event that could rival or even surpass the intensity of the Super El Nino’s
of 1997-1998 and 2015 -2016. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) is NOAA's primary index for tracking the ocean part of the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation ENSO) climate pattern. The ONI is the rolling 3-month
average temperature anomaly in the Sea Surface Temperatures of the east-central
tropical Pacific, near the International Dateline. As I said in my last blog
post, found <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/06/el-nino-is-officially-here.html" target="_blank">here</a>. “Nino region 3.4 is where we usually monitor the ENSO for El Nino or La
Nina. When looking at Nino 3.4, Index values of +0.5 or higher indicate El Nino.
Values of -0.5 or lower indicate La Nina. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">An El Nino
alert is declared when Niño 3.4 anomaly exceeds +0.5°C for 3-month period. In
order to be considered a full-fledged El Nino onset conditions must be met for
5 consecutive 3-month periods. So based on the data, we’re well on our way to a
full-fledged El Nino.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the monthly Nino index in each of the four Nino regions, we see that they
are all above 0.5 C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nino 4 …0.6°C above
average, Nino 3.4’s anomaly is at 0.9°C <a name="_Hlk138521438">above average</a>,
Nino region 3 is at 1.2°C above average, Region 1+2 is at 2.7°C above average.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih1if-rzSl9sSXl0xG87i3JjcypDFD8m8JEnqPaRRtMX5bWOufd_lN_22oB_twasBnzmAI_7jszSSzQ3BJ87HzbbtpbjbeH5wSeq_JuL1JoRsYh_AUpzNDm4ceVOxmcshY4ATDh3FYqmhyUwfsMw2l_e5LPjhO5b74ZAMua4O2cqtFd-iVxtUvDzUHt2pv/s2640/El%20Nino%20new%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2640" data-original-width="2295" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih1if-rzSl9sSXl0xG87i3JjcypDFD8m8JEnqPaRRtMX5bWOufd_lN_22oB_twasBnzmAI_7jszSSzQ3BJ87HzbbtpbjbeH5wSeq_JuL1JoRsYh_AUpzNDm4ceVOxmcshY4ATDh3FYqmhyUwfsMw2l_e5LPjhO5b74ZAMua4O2cqtFd-iVxtUvDzUHt2pv/s320/El%20Nino%20new%201.jpeg" width="278" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyptniJDuoc74tG-pSKhhUkYckej2DFI8nBuZbrKTOUowXRW83DOBSFqZ37sWCX32LEBGrk5MyZsaBkJXowrkLPluUYry3R2yxZHFfGrFpfli_LhTldK1cUn63ZHgNv58f3qL-Qoml3KZ-RGSLPMDy8qG74C9X-YUBepGyQEA0-d7axoYc_lqGMUVSZn7G/s2295/El%20Nino%20new%20%202.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="2295" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyptniJDuoc74tG-pSKhhUkYckej2DFI8nBuZbrKTOUowXRW83DOBSFqZ37sWCX32LEBGrk5MyZsaBkJXowrkLPluUYry3R2yxZHFfGrFpfli_LhTldK1cUn63ZHgNv58f3qL-Qoml3KZ-RGSLPMDy8qG74C9X-YUBepGyQEA0-d7axoYc_lqGMUVSZn7G/s320/El%20Nino%20new%20%202.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When looking
at the ocean analysis, we also have to look at the ocean anomalies below the
surface, at depth. Below you can see the subsurface ocean anomalies across the
ENSO regions, showing a strong warm belt, with the strongest anomalies in the
eastern regions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2uTQbcvfM0YptAMxq3ULIUdO3t0Df-YP-UyvBESy3aac-_Zdxa0bUpyCQnclOlwtwB5J68EgStXXWn_1CwzJXhb7t3H3XfLIaWuYVpPodrL9HHaXqYT1ufDIPyGsZE_xdQHDgHWo0iW9MrPRh3X-1Ix8oWt8naCRD7Y27e09rE0qLFFWhJWdfkSBfCXQv/s2295/el%20Nino%20new%203.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="2295" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2uTQbcvfM0YptAMxq3ULIUdO3t0Df-YP-UyvBESy3aac-_Zdxa0bUpyCQnclOlwtwB5J68EgStXXWn_1CwzJXhb7t3H3XfLIaWuYVpPodrL9HHaXqYT1ufDIPyGsZE_xdQHDgHWo0iW9MrPRh3X-1Ix8oWt8naCRD7Y27e09rE0qLFFWhJWdfkSBfCXQv/s320/el%20Nino%20new%203.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Given this
we should reach actual El Nino status during this summer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi45qnXtslbOFJ_iuz2NGFOIbrzdqPNr4njGN4xAUcFgUDffIzm0fVTN99hOayVvXlkw6duljtDOGRqDA1dlwKAHPrqNs9V8r1VSEogn4FtHAvRG6dMOoHmWPHVN8YNNK10n1Pbs4YQUsqx1x_g7SthPoOoc7d_7p-VzUBD2XGd3axDKAf1Mlyw8JnC5Et0/s1361/El%20Nino%20latest%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="754" data-original-width="1361" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi45qnXtslbOFJ_iuz2NGFOIbrzdqPNr4njGN4xAUcFgUDffIzm0fVTN99hOayVvXlkw6duljtDOGRqDA1dlwKAHPrqNs9V8r1VSEogn4FtHAvRG6dMOoHmWPHVN8YNNK10n1Pbs4YQUsqx1x_g7SthPoOoc7d_7p-VzUBD2XGd3axDKAf1Mlyw8JnC5Et0/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">All the
models are indicating a high likelihood of moderate to strong El Nino event,
with a few showing a super El Nino event. Super El Ninos feature anomaly
temperatures in Nino 3.4 that are greater than 2C above average. If you want to
read more on what a super El Nino is, click <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/what-is-super-el-nino.html" target="_blank">here.</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The SST are warmer this year heading into El Nino, than they were for the Super El Nino of 2015-2016. This is another indication that this could be the strongest El Nino on record. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3wl2ywF93-WPtCJRXs9G1EXQA1iB5MHgDpUrDOugzXZIVWXN0pKQwMq4iT8VIsFtfinV5yZa6q6ejqpTaaOZ30zrHd43c--WeqAa4dk_S6qqlc3AblniREDkfT9_5BS1CC5A_Yv6-GaPDd89SqbImgUZFoWHJ2yfK-r1hAWOKHjmkgXkeb58nEnjpWTbO/s620/El%20Nino%20latest%208.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="620" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3wl2ywF93-WPtCJRXs9G1EXQA1iB5MHgDpUrDOugzXZIVWXN0pKQwMq4iT8VIsFtfinV5yZa6q6ejqpTaaOZ30zrHd43c--WeqAa4dk_S6qqlc3AblniREDkfT9_5BS1CC5A_Yv6-GaPDd89SqbImgUZFoWHJ2yfK-r1hAWOKHjmkgXkeb58nEnjpWTbO/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%208.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Other Teleconnections…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI)? The SOI measures the difference in air pressure
between Tahiti, in the South Pacific, and Darwin, in the north of Australia. In
its positive phase, pressures generally are lower than average in Darwin and
higher than average in Tahiti. Sustained values of 1 or greater associate to La
Nina. In the SOI’s negative phase, pressures tend to be higher than average in
Darwin and lower than average in Tahiti. Sustained values of -1 or less correlate
to El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the SOI graph below, you can see the prolonged positive pressure phase, During
the La Nina. But now you can see a fast shift into a negative pressure phase,
indicating a shift into an El Nino mode.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRWAHpxBVl8lo1BTm6qbLZwsUxi-j4iQwijy0zz4tXOafKHIb9Lvy7DP4YhoEpYqO2u-V5dxjF28lwB6F_ME8Hb7o6jIjjI8FCeyOgcBNZMkwRzZ8AGEAtmRT08Rr5OmfyDQtALtlAxNe3izBO7Tj2h7qX0scexp4cUwjP5ZQiKAccEBUm0VmMTJ2sVvcI/s970/El%20Nino%20latest%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="970" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRWAHpxBVl8lo1BTm6qbLZwsUxi-j4iQwijy0zz4tXOafKHIb9Lvy7DP4YhoEpYqO2u-V5dxjF28lwB6F_ME8Hb7o6jIjjI8FCeyOgcBNZMkwRzZ8AGEAtmRT08Rr5OmfyDQtALtlAxNe3izBO7Tj2h7qX0scexp4cUwjP5ZQiKAccEBUm0VmMTJ2sVvcI/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the SOI chart, the three-month average Southern Oscillation Index is at -7.47.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVDgVp5WtP1JeEywmBZzwjUVw8PS1LLDpBGodG31PvTt9SOIloRsVV5W_Isi08yJhmMLmBLbHImIUN_Hk8XMHOyKajlBKKE5oGj1xR6sWIb6mY9ug0bjderR6hsap65rSdNADdU6R4f9H5zXXzfWA50CdXzgwwI7j8er_gjMOCXAfCzU2HWF_N9O5RyyVV/s1213/El%20Nino%20latest%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="406" data-original-width="1213" height="107" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVDgVp5WtP1JeEywmBZzwjUVw8PS1LLDpBGodG31PvTt9SOIloRsVV5W_Isi08yJhmMLmBLbHImIUN_Hk8XMHOyKajlBKKE5oGj1xR6sWIb6mY9ug0bjderR6hsap65rSdNADdU6R4f9H5zXXzfWA50CdXzgwwI7j8er_gjMOCXAfCzU2HWF_N9O5RyyVV/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">IOD is the
difference between the <a name="_Hlk138598957">sea surface temperature </a>of
eastern Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) and the western Indian Ocean (Arabian
Sea).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The wet
negative phase of the IODs often, but not always, come at the same time as La
Ninas, and the positive phase often happens at the same time as El Nino –
meaning the IOD tends to exacerbate whatever ENSO is doing. But this
relationship isn’t set in stone, and the IOD can also reduce the effects of
ENSO if it’s in a different phase.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk138597986"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The IOD</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is currently neutral. All models suggest a positive IOD is likely to
develop in the coming months. A positive IOD can exacerbate El Nino's impacts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The most
recent IRI plume also indicates El Nino is likely to form during the May-July
season and persist into the winter. The combination of a forecasted third
westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic
heat content, means that a potentially significant El Nino is very possible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj75eMGt78BznNukO_SeNf7Nf3bZ-syy4o_7FvPfPN0FWoAvXyuhBqmkQdE8wnHG8DPMlVdBx9H91VJHmQmmQR0LIj6Qd3Mp-0-jBcXFKGqUccNvSht1A-4uuSfI_q28IFqtItSf3QYkO3X1CRH-E3kuHykXKVfOq5qvwvJ7ZRawoLmAU6vhWRKkZp9Blco/s1113/El%20Nino%20latest%206.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="1113" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj75eMGt78BznNukO_SeNf7Nf3bZ-syy4o_7FvPfPN0FWoAvXyuhBqmkQdE8wnHG8DPMlVdBx9H91VJHmQmmQR0LIj6Qd3Mp-0-jBcXFKGqUccNvSht1A-4uuSfI_q28IFqtItSf3QYkO3X1CRH-E3kuHykXKVfOq5qvwvJ7ZRawoLmAU6vhWRKkZp9Blco/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%206.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">All of this
is showing El Nino sticking around for the next several months. Based on the
data the El Nino could continue to develop and strengthen right through winter
2023-2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Looking back
at the global ocean analysis from Coral Reef Watch, we see the very warm water
in the Eastern and Central equatorial Pacific; we can also see the blob in the North
Pacific, currently running well above average SST anomalies. Another area that
is apparent is the North Atlantic. Notice a strong above average SST anomaly,
spanning from the equator up to the polar circle. It’s this record warmth in
the North Atlantic that is the most unusual thing going on, and is something to
look closer at. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn3MHrGKCzsfb7WkJpMwMIKwEgPbosMDokoFHz576I88eMNzOjVtOfQSheqHbYdXb0cMUcAXl_nXyGO9fol2bIhns_lkKDjBjurpByfC8AIz76BfClyBQK_0obriRtWP_trAlGW4nnbFcvEbWOmzRF41izR61Tnd4ZPTC65blz1e9LPU-D3CHAJWHTuIQQ/s1787/El%20Nino%20latest%205a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn3MHrGKCzsfb7WkJpMwMIKwEgPbosMDokoFHz576I88eMNzOjVtOfQSheqHbYdXb0cMUcAXl_nXyGO9fol2bIhns_lkKDjBjurpByfC8AIz76BfClyBQK_0obriRtWP_trAlGW4nnbFcvEbWOmzRF41izR61Tnd4ZPTC65blz1e9LPU-D3CHAJWHTuIQQ/s320/El%20Nino%20latest%205a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Atlantic Basin…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I’ve
received questions in regard to El Nino and the early tropical activity in the
Atlantic we’ve seen so far in June. Some feel the developing El Nino isn’t exerting
influence on the pattern; citing the early activity in the Atlantic as proof of
that Idea. They basically want to know if that is true? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The global circulation and jet stream patterns
are already coupling with the ocean-atmosphere influence of the developing El
Nino.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During El Nino the southerly Pacific jet
stream is amplified, this is certainly the case this year, with all the storms along
the jet bringing lots of precipitation and cooler weather to the southern
United States. Typically, during El Nino, the polar jet stream is usually
further north and weaker, which limits a lot of the variability, that pattern has
unquestionably been in place for the last few months, leading to the overly cool
and dry weather the Northeast has experienced. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This is all
part of the recent atmospheric setup over the North Atlantic. Over the past several
months, we’ve had a persistent blocking pattern over the Labrador Sea,
Greenland and Iceland.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This
blocking setup in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic means that there is
higher than average pressure closer to Greenland. Because of that there have
been lower than average pressure near Bermuda and the Azores, which has been
the case over the spring into Summer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This atmospheric setup of the North Atlantic
has been a big contributor to the above average water temperatures in the far
north Atlantic and also in the tropics. As a result, parts of the North
Atlantic Ocean are seeing exceptionally warm SSTs. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As I outlined
this setup as led to a weaker sub-tropical high (Bermuda High). Which in turn led
to weaker easterly trade winds. Stronger winds increase upwelling of cooler water
from below the surface. But with the current setup, this allowed the tropical Atlantic Ocean to bake in
late spring sunshine. The weak Bermuda High and lack of stronger trade winds,
is the reason the wind shear hasn’t been as robust as is typical. It has also reduced
the extent of Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic leading to even higher water
temperatures. The whole thing is a vicious circle. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is very noticeable right now, in the Main
Development Region in the tropical Atlantic. Where the SST are already at the
level typically not seen until August and September.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, while El
Nino normally leads to fewer hurricanes and tropical storms, due to stronger
wind shear. The setup in the Atlantic with the record warm SST, reduced shear and
dust, is countering the El Nino leading to all the early activity we’re seeing
in the Atlantic. So since the Atlantic is typically cooler during El Nino, the
conditions this year, means we are entering uncharted waters, so this El Nino
might be something we have not seen before.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">.As I said in the What is a Super El Nino blog post, "</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Super El Nino’s
seem to set a new plateau in regards to warming global temperatures". <br /><br />Well that's it, let me know what you think. If you like the post click like and also share the post with others. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-84332466295580259832023-06-10T21:50:00.003-04:002023-06-11T19:45:22.039-04:00El Nino is officially here. <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Nino advisory,
announcing the official arrival of El Nino. There are several factors in place might
make this El Nino different than other El Nino’s in the past.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoVpUt4wXXJehp6aNPKyReGUeyBe1-8Wd8dV4cOYMppqPpFhF0aYjU6zgLLL-EzvoBLuFBMla8vUia_Bkam7BsxroKrw78SaknKgEWPkayR9uENtdcBKzTO8bWJg3hgoPESjDbYNyWsFG9HEf7p1ijv6PUjB_WCv6aC_mc4CCXcaDZmV-lSMBnDk5C8A/s1787/el%20nino%20new%2014.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoVpUt4wXXJehp6aNPKyReGUeyBe1-8Wd8dV4cOYMppqPpFhF0aYjU6zgLLL-EzvoBLuFBMla8vUia_Bkam7BsxroKrw78SaknKgEWPkayR9uENtdcBKzTO8bWJg3hgoPESjDbYNyWsFG9HEf7p1ijv6PUjB_WCv6aC_mc4CCXcaDZmV-lSMBnDk5C8A/s320/el%20nino%20new%2014.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The last El
Nino event to impact the country was during 2018-19, this event was very weak.
Since then, we had a triple dip La Nina, meaning a La Nina that covered three consecutive
years. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAi_mbmcb7-qfDPE25M-Iu8F_1YCDQ8vjOyyhztXu3mOG8nJSLv7JWrG12rxQLwdiuGuEnENkX0Cx0cYrb3opr2bsUSjmtta2XR4tsY6w-tCiRPD7HUgl0V27-SKKNFQ9LfpwpRbaCW6xcGWWuapzcW9UlOLLwmnPUWA1fCoKlbQRNQk_puN9VcDNfPw/s2640/El%20Nino%20new%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2640" data-original-width="2295" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAi_mbmcb7-qfDPE25M-Iu8F_1YCDQ8vjOyyhztXu3mOG8nJSLv7JWrG12rxQLwdiuGuEnENkX0Cx0cYrb3opr2bsUSjmtta2XR4tsY6w-tCiRPD7HUgl0V27-SKKNFQ9LfpwpRbaCW6xcGWWuapzcW9UlOLLwmnPUWA1fCoKlbQRNQk_puN9VcDNfPw/s320/El%20Nino%20new%201.jpeg" width="278" /></a></div><br /><o:p></o:p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-sk5o6mMc9-bOqbza_JDwZL8UAzfG7MV2gCgpvoQ5kVC2pw4m0p2Vv-npKHiLrqqtMvTxq8wVWlK5DOA-H9bxxz4GwO_z4WNFI8Q-Rlruvs5Nxr8WIHbl8ABZkfb45EUZpkpXC--oeibUCNuJrDSwuYxBP1cJcF7qWxJ9L6ofnJRzuMt5VsiBV3SBRA/s2295/El%20Nino%20new%20%202.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="2295" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-sk5o6mMc9-bOqbza_JDwZL8UAzfG7MV2gCgpvoQ5kVC2pw4m0p2Vv-npKHiLrqqtMvTxq8wVWlK5DOA-H9bxxz4GwO_z4WNFI8Q-Rlruvs5Nxr8WIHbl8ABZkfb45EUZpkpXC--oeibUCNuJrDSwuYxBP1cJcF7qWxJ9L6ofnJRzuMt5VsiBV3SBRA/s320/El%20Nino%20new%20%202.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Nino region
3.4 is where we usually monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for El
Nino or La Nina. As I’ve said many times, an El Nino is when sea surface
temperature anomalies reach 0.5 °C or warmer than average values for a
three-month period. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When we look at the monthly
Nino index in each of the four Nino regions, we see that they are all above 0.5
C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nino 3.4’s anomaly is at 0.98°C above
average, meaning we’re on the cusp of a Moderate El Nino, Nino region 3 is at
+1.1°C, Region 1+2 is much warmer at +2.6°C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The strength
is determined by how much above average the water temperatures are in the Nino
3.4 region. The stronger the El Nino the greater it’s impacts. I posted in the blog, about what is a Super El Nino which you can find <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/what-is-super-el-nino.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 0.5ºC above average = Weak El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 1.0ºC above average = Moderate El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water
temperatures 1.5ºC above average = Strong El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Water Temperatures of 2.0+ above average = Super El Nino</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTSdSNlVupXpkOEJIx5bhFAxusTc8uCXoqkXHDPExvQv8wyyspn4b9ApdHxLzu8lyzy8X7Pb7oKk6OJnrTbfpQuycKKQDhtp2HHWKdvliiZ1O-N44O2z1aOr-z-UdmlZUZ-tR0Whpgx2SMuyTW-PFQC9BEEZTF6WwyUREkA0D48U79yFLXMsNtadtOg/s2295/el%20Nino%20new%203.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="2295" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTSdSNlVupXpkOEJIx5bhFAxusTc8uCXoqkXHDPExvQv8wyyspn4b9ApdHxLzu8lyzy8X7Pb7oKk6OJnrTbfpQuycKKQDhtp2HHWKdvliiZ1O-N44O2z1aOr-z-UdmlZUZ-tR0Whpgx2SMuyTW-PFQC9BEEZTF6WwyUREkA0D48U79yFLXMsNtadtOg/s320/el%20Nino%20new%203.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, we can see
there is a lot of warmer than average water below the surface, coupled with those
very warm SST off of Peru and Ecuador. While this is a good indicator of a
strong El Nino down the road; they aren’t a 100% guarantee that a strong El
Nino will develop. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When we look at the
historic record, the SST in the equatorial Pacific is currently the 4<sup>th</sup>
warmest for May.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The top two May values were
1997 and 2015, both of these become super El Nino’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The El Nino of 1979 into 1980 lasted into the
Summer of 1980, 1980 saw the third warmest water in the Central Pacific for the
month of May. But that didn’t result in a strong El Nino, instead that El Nino
was a weak Modoki El Nino. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Modoki El
Nino is when the SST in the central Pacific is warmer than in the eastern
Pacific<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This El Nino
has started early based on the historic average. The early bird El Nino has formed
roughly two months early.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The vast majority
of El Nino’s are at their strongest during December to April, with the greatest
impact during December through February, But the early start might make a
difference in this. If the El Nino strengthens quickly it could affect both temperatures
and rainfall this summer. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><b>The Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI)...</b></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_yZnKmtRHLQx--peicwCLLX9NfrBZKE4XbT8GgCMfA2E8LCwbZos8DnZ_XJ6bjItbOc_CyZiRblFyZLdSDjZeL562s0JRhp5MoRqD6lyutIImeI9eO2IHQFLc9s4L4D5UiCbhE_9Az-7maQJMxIzBEeoPRU822lvNhY1ebi3423YBj-qRgeQCpWxM_Q/s975/el%20nino%20new%2015.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="839" data-original-width="975" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_yZnKmtRHLQx--peicwCLLX9NfrBZKE4XbT8GgCMfA2E8LCwbZos8DnZ_XJ6bjItbOc_CyZiRblFyZLdSDjZeL562s0JRhp5MoRqD6lyutIImeI9eO2IHQFLc9s4L4D5UiCbhE_9Az-7maQJMxIzBEeoPRU822lvNhY1ebi3423YBj-qRgeQCpWxM_Q/s320/el%20nino%20new%2015.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The SOI is a
good indictor of how the overall atmosphere is responding to the ENSO. The more negative the SOI the stronger the El Nino. S</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">ustained
negative values below about –8 indicate an El Nino.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Over the last several weeks, both the
equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>The
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)...</b><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYqtIyqdnSU3XGukrwu6-5NJFCJEa-GbTUO1LGJOc0j7XSOZzD-kfWRAS5aqKTLU0lE29ybIx_PFCVuahrV8bM5P8Pl3qgpOuXARIZRpaQAl8ajKWO12Wmq6DGd6srzp-W8MA2NmHZxfPpjTnD0x4TT15xjsHDNTHSEg2DbBNM1KZrq7uXGKu7n-dzbg/s583/el%20nino%20new%207.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="583" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYqtIyqdnSU3XGukrwu6-5NJFCJEa-GbTUO1LGJOc0j7XSOZzD-kfWRAS5aqKTLU0lE29ybIx_PFCVuahrV8bM5P8Pl3qgpOuXARIZRpaQAl8ajKWO12Wmq6DGd6srzp-W8MA2NmHZxfPpjTnD0x4TT15xjsHDNTHSEg2DbBNM1KZrq7uXGKu7n-dzbg/s320/el%20nino%20new%207.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSUC-EdmQolQi6H0rU4NgldURxv5h_htll-R5pQ7jad4e4cf0UYkKDWacb4u7D3X89km4afHBMmNJ-QTGENyle28PcFvgn6uDIQyHw91Z2xO6TrgZtdHgIrYxlD679uNpdV9iQcffKLy51rx1Z9eAtRwGUVlsNdSWu79sX562pxd82Hs3OavigO4cq8Q/s586/el%20nino%20new%208.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="586" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSUC-EdmQolQi6H0rU4NgldURxv5h_htll-R5pQ7jad4e4cf0UYkKDWacb4u7D3X89km4afHBMmNJ-QTGENyle28PcFvgn6uDIQyHw91Z2xO6TrgZtdHgIrYxlD679uNpdV9iQcffKLy51rx1Z9eAtRwGUVlsNdSWu79sX562pxd82Hs3OavigO4cq8Q/s320/el%20nino%20new%208.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix7700jO7A_lR5rX4s3I4CkN27l7zRVr8ehT1VSj51JkZ5n7QsS5H_J1sblaEqdwWeKvPQ4xanSg6hRzXmMH1V0En0-NOAhDt16mBDEJE7VJmptzfbvDwRWtenzlVr_-x6_88tnDh8wOsuqcE-tD6uvhV75IHQIhrIsi24LEBFQTh2Et-vBoO7EEBf-Q/s1000/El%20Nino%20new%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1000" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix7700jO7A_lR5rX4s3I4CkN27l7zRVr8ehT1VSj51JkZ5n7QsS5H_J1sblaEqdwWeKvPQ4xanSg6hRzXmMH1V0En0-NOAhDt16mBDEJE7VJmptzfbvDwRWtenzlVr_-x6_88tnDh8wOsuqcE-tD6uvhV75IHQIhrIsi24LEBFQTh2Et-vBoO7EEBf-Q/s320/El%20Nino%20new%209.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The MJO is
currently sitting in phase 3 and is very weak. The MJO is looking to transition
to phase 4 and looks to stay there at least through the Middle of June. After
that the models show it collapsing into the Circle of Death (COD) for the 2nd
half of June and remains there for the foreseeable future. Phase 3 is typically
a warm signal for the Northeast. But Phase 4 is a cool signal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once the MJO reaches the COD, it will loose
most of its influence on the overall pattern, allowing other forces to be in
control of the overall show. Seeing the MJO in the COD during the summer months
is fairly typical due to the generally weaker trade winds. The MJO is looking
to support overall temperatures staying below average to near average for much
of June before allowing for more warming during July.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This should
allow for the pattern over the CONUS to adjust to become zonal. Over the last
several weeks, the pattern over the northern CONUS has been stuck in a
roadblock. So, we’ve been having these upper-level lows (ULL) setting up and
hanging around the Northeast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea
of these ULL spinning over the Great Lakes and Northeast is typical for El
Nino. But lately this idea has been on steroids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the pattern more Zonal, we would have systems
moving freely from west to east.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
would allow us to return to overall average/slightly below average temperatures
across the Northeast, which would be a big change from the overall well below
average temperatures we’ve been experiencing for the last few weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, with the El Nino, while we will see
troughs over the Northeast, there shouldn’t be as many of them as we’ve seen
the last several weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This general
idea is supported by the CPC 8–14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhvexrHEciyljjPa3zZODYWU6Bx-88jdyDOZZB9EKeINleUQqZie6_mmObln6eN-qdVPD53O1W8Dh6gaxjWEqbOt3jHpxLDDWRJTvap798XWsPDoAmQ9nZnpmhfT3vmk7i4iY6Af3W45Bz9TnZf8GQ7U9kouj1x5AnCfdE2Ho0yLro7EF_PFUa2TkNJA/s1327/el%20nino%20new%2010.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="1327" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhvexrHEciyljjPa3zZODYWU6Bx-88jdyDOZZB9EKeINleUQqZie6_mmObln6eN-qdVPD53O1W8Dh6gaxjWEqbOt3jHpxLDDWRJTvap798XWsPDoAmQ9nZnpmhfT3vmk7i4iY6Af3W45Bz9TnZf8GQ7U9kouj1x5AnCfdE2Ho0yLro7EF_PFUa2TkNJA/s320/el%20nino%20new%2010.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>The Atlantic
is also very warm...</b><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VGe9V2uYSUXiH5M4p2X7MsJ0GfNPxtqlsj9EbFLUFQ-iMaOWp4uEkVW3_i_xTmhhU7EbiPXny5Ans5R5XBrnBS9L2XMKf66rcwwNqfUsftsHrkt5iIIEiB_AZPPmBu4ylDpdSII8ycblIEftkByoNLhDO_NDxTqyFNoB7AS6NmUHsfrX6h4UUulHPA/s922/el%20nino%20new%2011.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="922" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VGe9V2uYSUXiH5M4p2X7MsJ0GfNPxtqlsj9EbFLUFQ-iMaOWp4uEkVW3_i_xTmhhU7EbiPXny5Ans5R5XBrnBS9L2XMKf66rcwwNqfUsftsHrkt5iIIEiB_AZPPmBu4ylDpdSII8ycblIEftkByoNLhDO_NDxTqyFNoB7AS6NmUHsfrX6h4UUulHPA/s320/el%20nino%20new%2011.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
El Nino creates more in the way of hostile atmospheric conditions of higher
amounts of windshear. The higher windshear helps to disrupt tropical formation
in the Atlantic Basin. Typically, during El Nino, the Atlantic sees cooler SST;
the lower water temperatures are also unsupportive for tropical cyclone
development.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This year Atlantic SST are
much different. The warm SST are over a large part of the North Atlantic,
including the Main Development Region. The combination of El Nino, the large
amount of warm water in the north Pacific, and the very warm SST in the
Atlantic Basin, is really nothing that we’ve seen before. So, we’re kind of in
uncharted territory, when it comes to this year’s El Nino. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The warmth
in the Atlantic is going to help counteract the impact of El Nino on the 2023
hurricane season. This is one of the reasons My hurricane outlook is calling
for average to above average tropical cyclone numbers in the Atlantic for this
season. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>El Nino impacts
for this Summer and upcoming Winter...</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During El
Nino years overall temperatures are warm across much of the CONUS, part of this
has to do with the fact that typically during El Nino overnight temperatures are
warmer when compared to afternoon temperature anomalies. This hanging on to the
heat, helps to raise overall summertime temperature anomalies when they are
averaged together. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In the
summer months, the eastern U.S. typically sees cooler-than-average
temperatures, with more in the way of dry condition, this is especially true
for the Northeast. I showed this in my Summer Outlook which you can find <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/04/my-2023-summer-outlook-for-northeast.html" target="_blank">here</a>. Remember,
the stronger the El Nino the more pronounced the impacts. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During the
winter months, the northern tier of the CONUS including the Northeast it tends
to be warmer than average, while the southern tier is colder than average. The
Middle Atlantic region tends to see overall average to slightly below average
overall temperatures. Precipitation is typically average to above average. But
the temperatures make P-type is highly variable. Generally, snowfall is below
average across the interior Northeast, this is largely due to the polar jet
stream's diversion north, keeping the region warmer than average. The Middle
Atlantic tends to due better on Snowfall during El Nino, typically seeing
average to above average snowfall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But the idea
of this being a strong El Nino will have an effect on all of this. For the
Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic Region, the phase of the MJO is as or
more important than El Nino when it comes to snowfall in this region.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
chart for cities in the Northeast and how the strength of the El Nino and the
phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has on snowfall totals.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguHtSCV3sPMcn9OtSdlZvF7CgrX9GcyspaMr_uVy1i9PMmigarU6fQnXgTbzmWLCOUdzs0R7QzMdx3a7cAgEIYjwelnJLN1kS6-G-NjmJf4YRI8CNTm3s2qfTtrmvZPpg-u6Lzb2dIh1zFUyBbU-xgDDd49LRRMj_pEkkZ9ZRP_ZDKZPVvLjmzNfFqMw/s1027/el%20nino%20new%2012.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1027" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguHtSCV3sPMcn9OtSdlZvF7CgrX9GcyspaMr_uVy1i9PMmigarU6fQnXgTbzmWLCOUdzs0R7QzMdx3a7cAgEIYjwelnJLN1kS6-G-NjmJf4YRI8CNTm3s2qfTtrmvZPpg-u6Lzb2dIh1zFUyBbU-xgDDd49LRRMj_pEkkZ9ZRP_ZDKZPVvLjmzNfFqMw/s320/el%20nino%20new%2012.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Showing snowfall
from 1950 to 2017, broken down by El Nino, La Nina and neutral (neither El Nino
nor La Nina) seasons, as well as those stronger El Nino seasons with a predominant
positive (+) or negative (-) <a name="_Hlk137310093">NAO.<o:p></o:p></a></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk137310093;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In seven of
the nine Northeast cities examined, strong El Nino seasons with a prevalent
negative NAO produced the snowiest seasons compared to average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reason for this is when the NAO is
negative it promotes a general pattern supporting Blocking near Greenland. Along
with a better chance for the polar jet stream to push south, allowing for
colder air at times. During strong El Nino’s the subtropical jet is typically
very active and has a better chance of interacting with the northern Jet, when
the polar jet is farther south. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
increases the odds for bigger Northeast snowstorms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">On the
contrary, with the exception of Washington D.C., all other Northeast cities
tended on average to see the least snow during strong El Nino and generally
positive NAO.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reason being the
polar jet stream stayed eastward up across Canada keeping the cold air bottled
up in Canada. These kept the subtropical jet stream from interacting with the
polar jet, with a general lack of cold, meaning there were few chances for
Northeast snowstorms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">That covers the
latest on the developing El Nino, and how it could impact this Summer and a
little glimpse of what it could mean for the Winter of 2023-2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-63342953641576652612023-05-25T14:18:00.005-04:002023-05-26T21:43:04.288-04:00What is a super El Nino?<p style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-size: 14pt;">I and most
weather outlets have been talking about the developing El Nino. I have gotten a
number private and public post and comments wondering about the impacts of the
developing El Nino will have on our summer weather.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">I’ve seen several media outlets suggest that
El Nino will cause enhanced heatwaves around the world. In my hurricane and
summer outlooks I talked about El Nino. I even said this year’s El Nino will be
very strong and could even become a so called Super El Nino. With all the talk about
this, some of y’all are a bit worried. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">So I thought this might help clear something up.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What is
El Nino? …<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The ENSO is
a natural phenomenon that results from the coupled interactions between the tropical
Pacific and the atmosphere. The changing sea surface temperatures (SST) alter
rainfall, ocean currents, and wind patterns around the globe. All of this produces
a positive feedback loop, which leads to even more changes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino is
linked to major changes in the atmosphere known as the Southern Oscillation
(SO). El Nino’s sibling is called La Nina. Both of these are encompassed by
what is called the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Nino is the warmer phase, with La Nina
being the cooler phase.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Ninos generally
occurs every three to seven years or so, the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific
Ocean become extremely warm from the International Dateline to the west coast
of South America.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">SST anomaly
2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtXZT-blsUiiVfwlrBgUvikUk-DLQ3iKRmibAT7fu5Z_dd0GcBB1XtntN0ZjbcAYjfLgXWG-KdE9sepst-2dkiNG58tKc-lBgv8xgg6QfwV3VM-Niru-NI9PHbaHnG503aflZop4EaEKPKLqeOFkzKW3OOj4keZyS0D93qczG1_BdONDpcJeu4gMTtEg/s1024/super%20el%20nino%2011.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtXZT-blsUiiVfwlrBgUvikUk-DLQ3iKRmibAT7fu5Z_dd0GcBB1XtntN0ZjbcAYjfLgXWG-KdE9sepst-2dkiNG58tKc-lBgv8xgg6QfwV3VM-Niru-NI9PHbaHnG503aflZop4EaEKPKLqeOFkzKW3OOj4keZyS0D93qczG1_BdONDpcJeu4gMTtEg/s320/super%20el%20nino%2011.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">There are
several indices used to monitor the tropical Pacific, all of which are based on
SST anomalies averaged across a given region.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">
</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Usually, the anomalies are computed relative to a base period of 30
years.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The Nino 3.4 index and the
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) are the most commonly used indices to define El Nino
and La Nina events.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Other indices are
used to help characterize the unique nature of each event.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUjx0Cm_P6tpHCBgEFuujTOc0_S90DYZaWXDnoMF33CXeo352CKAqU0AgdfTuHdXYVmasP3Vg8z_fbERZnolJ0J_GGSNtXPiit6CxwR0wv_gIBuQvc8Uy73H8Pt-cTOD0y6mW_AGDzCKNu6wfEsgd3qpPoyIuWFenOisU2DNxRI4qQjW3uAM605F4knw/s1130/Nino%20regions.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="1130" height="99" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUjx0Cm_P6tpHCBgEFuujTOc0_S90DYZaWXDnoMF33CXeo352CKAqU0AgdfTuHdXYVmasP3Vg8z_fbERZnolJ0J_GGSNtXPiit6CxwR0wv_gIBuQvc8Uy73H8Pt-cTOD0y6mW_AGDzCKNu6wfEsgd3qpPoyIuWFenOisU2DNxRI4qQjW3uAM605F4knw/s320/Nino%20regions.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The numbers
of the Nino 1,2,3, and 4 regions correspond with the labels assigned to ship
tracks that crossed these regions over the last 100 years. While humans discovered
El Nino during the last 100 to 150 years, the global historical record shows that
the ENSO has been around for millennia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Nino 1+2
region is the smallest and eastern-most of the Nino SST regions. Normally, this
index tends to have the largest variance of the Nino SST indices.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Nino 3
region used to be where SST were monitored and were used in predicting El Nino,
but researchers later learned that Nino region was too far east to get a true measurement
for coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions when it came to defining El Nino and
La Nina events. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Nino 3.4
is now the area thought of as representing the average equatorial SST anomalies
across the Pacific. The Nino 3.4 index typically uses a 5-month running mean,
and El Niño or La Nina events are defined when the Nino 3.4 SSTs exceed +/-
0.4C for a period of six months or more. This is closely linked to the ONI. The
ONI uses a 3-month running mean, and to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño
or La Niña, the anomalies must exceed +0.5C or -0.5C for at least five
consecutive months inside Nino region 3.4.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Nino 4
index captures SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. This region tends to have less variance than
the other Nino regions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">To define
the distinctive character of each El Nino or La Nina event, a combination
index, called the Trans-Nino Index (TNI) is used. The TNI is defined to be the difference in
normalized SST anomalies between the Nino 1+2 and Nino 4 regions. The TNI thus measures the gradient in SST
anomalies between the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. When the SST gradient is particularly large
(say, due to very warm SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region and somewhat cooler
SST anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region, this is classified as a central Pacific
El Nino or sometimes called El Nino Modoki.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">NOAA
declares an official El Nino has developed when sea-surface temperatures in Nino
region 3.4 have reached at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for at least
a month and is expected to persist for several more months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">One
important thing to remember is Every El Nino cycle is different.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">OK what
about this year…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Over the
past three years, Nino regions 1+2 to 4 have been cooler than average. So,
we’ve been in a three year La Nina, which is often called a triple dip La Nina. But
that ended by March of this year , and water temperatures have quickly been getting warmer since
then. So currently the ENSO is in a neutral phase. Right now, anomalies are
such that we’re on the cusp of El Nino. This means El Nino very well could develop
sometime this summer, and that could have impacts on our summer weather here in
the Northeast, and in the upcoming hurricane season. Since El Nino and La Nina
events typically exert the most influence on the late Fall and winter. It could
have a big impact on winter 2023-2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Some models
are raising the possibility later this year of an extreme, or super El Nino,
that is marked by very high temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">OK, what
is a super El Nino? … <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The term
super El Nino is used to describe a very strong El Nino event.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
when it comes to defining an El Ninos strength, anomalies of 0.5C to 1.0C above
average is considered weak, anomalies 1.0C to 1.5 above average is considered
moderate, with anomalies of 1.5C to 2.0C above average considered strong. Super
El Ninos feature anomaly temperatures that are greater than 2C above average.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Officially there
had only been three super El Ninos – 1982 to 83, 1997 to 98, and 2015 to 16.
Some meteorologist also considered the El Nino in 1972 to 1973 as an extreme
event.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino
and a warming Planet…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
during an El Nino, overall temperatures around the globe, increase. During a
super El Nino there can be an even large increase. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A few years ago,
Joe Bastardi posted on how Super El Nino’s seem to set a new plateau in regards
to warming global temperatures. I had never thought of that idea before. I
don’t know if it was Bastardi or someone else who came up with the idea; but I
found it fascinating and insightful. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEKFiykPKnBo3dyGINQ0gILlk6X-ltyMYXiF22yzmQnuEUve6dDM8ey22xleKn1xfaaOBwBdAGdLBVng1PVB5kTF3ZegjD9rqrWWKVGdAiumwhcjl5FbldVfTsKOn4iEFRbgTz1KESSDmD2qdfbfNbXUjQHOjyUA-RCaRRUkLmIKkex5__XfQ4DWf_Tw/s1309/super%20el%20nino%2010.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="755" data-original-width="1309" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEKFiykPKnBo3dyGINQ0gILlk6X-ltyMYXiF22yzmQnuEUve6dDM8ey22xleKn1xfaaOBwBdAGdLBVng1PVB5kTF3ZegjD9rqrWWKVGdAiumwhcjl5FbldVfTsKOn4iEFRbgTz1KESSDmD2qdfbfNbXUjQHOjyUA-RCaRRUkLmIKkex5__XfQ4DWf_Tw/s320/super%20el%20nino%2010.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMsNeb-5sMHj4m63Ns55ZZVyH_x_yHx2Z_tTDKJb3zOyoB6Mp1nOlMEMUuDcnbCG0FzVI92HZ5rijPn_WUwT9tQklVBHf6EViEwzyre22aQeUK26kb_QpCFF2MeQVj3r9OzTK5t0XQmXvcmo2McPI57lHNuWbkxJNgpbVmiRHa2OoJK5oKIvLtGJRCQA/s1309/super%20el%20nino%2011.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="755" data-original-width="1309" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMsNeb-5sMHj4m63Ns55ZZVyH_x_yHx2Z_tTDKJb3zOyoB6Mp1nOlMEMUuDcnbCG0FzVI92HZ5rijPn_WUwT9tQklVBHf6EViEwzyre22aQeUK26kb_QpCFF2MeQVj3r9OzTK5t0XQmXvcmo2McPI57lHNuWbkxJNgpbVmiRHa2OoJK5oKIvLtGJRCQA/s320/super%20el%20nino%2011.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the UAH global temperature chart by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., a research
scientist at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, we see that the globe is
warming. When we place the years of the Super El Nino on the chart, the plateauing
stands out very clear. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A warming planet
does interact and aggravate the effects of El Nino. So, it’s certainly possible we will see 2023
break the record warm year set in the last Super El Nino in 2016. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">How El
Nino could impact the summer pattern…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Even though the
impacts of El Nino are greater during the winter, that doesn’t mean there’re no
influences during the summer. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">How much impact
the CONUS experiences is dependent on the strength of the El Nino event. But generally, the CONUS sees cooler than
average summer temperatures and slightly less than average precipitation in the
eastern half of the country during El Nino.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is
temperature and precipitation anomaly maps that show El Nino influence based on
the strength of the El Nino. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgapcBnpE3AblToCqvK142qC38dWtQe3UQNq0TSCDQP9rtY4elM2aSKNp4zUbcvrYZZv5SD_hxhMRwF9AHPTHZkFUsD45Bs--tU_DXC9H6L1D8vVk8eoxsV6PG21QjGHF9EebBXPpNa_32ZBT9jpCEXpIIXPEEk5Fa4fCaJUxMYTZR_DAs2KfBYuaHzdg/s1177/super%20el%20nino%207.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="1177" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgapcBnpE3AblToCqvK142qC38dWtQe3UQNq0TSCDQP9rtY4elM2aSKNp4zUbcvrYZZv5SD_hxhMRwF9AHPTHZkFUsD45Bs--tU_DXC9H6L1D8vVk8eoxsV6PG21QjGHF9EebBXPpNa_32ZBT9jpCEXpIIXPEEk5Fa4fCaJUxMYTZR_DAs2KfBYuaHzdg/s320/super%20el%20nino%207.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgogMEoZzvOxWs42Ad_-VjeLqsTLYGBV0cpjR6_Z9aX4mvdJc1Mooo9DwgVvse4r01tdCboUHpXhS4wfdNdn6XRbTEBJ3wJfpTBsvvmmuCYuyAx853YfBr7pT86TIbcK7v-VhaH5eMrfL3QF4f5oZJoAwYZ5cXRBySN01JkJWpL4LcFzwIotCPQMLNMlw/s1170/super%20el%20nino%208.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1170" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgogMEoZzvOxWs42Ad_-VjeLqsTLYGBV0cpjR6_Z9aX4mvdJc1Mooo9DwgVvse4r01tdCboUHpXhS4wfdNdn6XRbTEBJ3wJfpTBsvvmmuCYuyAx853YfBr7pT86TIbcK7v-VhaH5eMrfL3QF4f5oZJoAwYZ5cXRBySN01JkJWpL4LcFzwIotCPQMLNMlw/s320/super%20el%20nino%208.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These maps
don’t show the influence from a super El Nino on our temperatures for the
Northeast and Middle Atlantic. So, I entered the data for the super El Nino’s of
1982 to 83, 1997 to 98, and 2015 to 16. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ErYR5cSrskZO3MKadYxJABqbY3_o6FL48h0N2uAsYZ3r9YlMXO7YTZieOI_tIQCptLcVmoTDK6Gc3sPiMr6fRu8L3jx-vEx86yg-JKtRDk2I9rA-bWN3_O5e4RuHF9c0_dyid8VGftYz8wF0_EiBLH1IyD_IBlWzGiWL7EQShWZL24v810XcauPgCA/s550/super%20el%20nino%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ErYR5cSrskZO3MKadYxJABqbY3_o6FL48h0N2uAsYZ3r9YlMXO7YTZieOI_tIQCptLcVmoTDK6Gc3sPiMr6fRu8L3jx-vEx86yg-JKtRDk2I9rA-bWN3_O5e4RuHF9c0_dyid8VGftYz8wF0_EiBLH1IyD_IBlWzGiWL7EQShWZL24v810XcauPgCA/s320/super%20el%20nino%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheNwGILF33lc4tmH3xj_57k4tm1rICX29MgNazJ-m4Hv6SpXD_haqzKkxlspFkfDjKF9V6bWt0nk9QP1cVXOPsQfzVgGdLbXVK_AxU1L5cIgxmFsqGCUvh4YOLUeul7anGxmZVLUh92WTNStktom3xa_Q8UsamI2DvZfgbP-7FLMRQ34xh9MeMGSKgIA/s550/super%20el%20nino%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheNwGILF33lc4tmH3xj_57k4tm1rICX29MgNazJ-m4Hv6SpXD_haqzKkxlspFkfDjKF9V6bWt0nk9QP1cVXOPsQfzVgGdLbXVK_AxU1L5cIgxmFsqGCUvh4YOLUeul7anGxmZVLUh92WTNStktom3xa_Q8UsamI2DvZfgbP-7FLMRQ34xh9MeMGSKgIA/s320/super%20el%20nino%203.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Because some
meteorologist including me also consider the El Nino in 1972 to 1973 as a super
El Nino; I’ve including that as well.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheXpxTiiB9KAi1bleuT_xR9-5t10Y8TqiuFEuusqcqbFSJaeWx5SEXj7qvjluIZqxJhVzvXuNYEBglTioBFhXRKi3U5ul6YQvf3N-rcWnz2gSqE8akKT6Bwhl0oQ1VUIhjJy51LywAU8dzn-I1fCdxgRk6ptfVZN_izCinaWSrXZemlStjn9AOXEmOpA/s550/super%20el%20nino%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheXpxTiiB9KAi1bleuT_xR9-5t10Y8TqiuFEuusqcqbFSJaeWx5SEXj7qvjluIZqxJhVzvXuNYEBglTioBFhXRKi3U5ul6YQvf3N-rcWnz2gSqE8akKT6Bwhl0oQ1VUIhjJy51LywAU8dzn-I1fCdxgRk6ptfVZN_izCinaWSrXZemlStjn9AOXEmOpA/s320/super%20el%20nino%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhle1Hskrh7EFx_n4j0d9kA8hDgZ9VPKwuzARiQUcRFFk43xG3Dsr6fwvu3YwkECmzFO3emchM5-Tr8RCF4ux63JmXu9tlBly_DbEMou0ZQQM12qoQY0CLmzlejNcmJLAF14M2fXAsojj_iucnrFlY-jmH-bCWJMDeZkF64-mn4-ew6ZjiVPB0lgzq5mg/s550/super%20el%20nino%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhle1Hskrh7EFx_n4j0d9kA8hDgZ9VPKwuzARiQUcRFFk43xG3Dsr6fwvu3YwkECmzFO3emchM5-Tr8RCF4ux63JmXu9tlBly_DbEMou0ZQQM12qoQY0CLmzlejNcmJLAF14M2fXAsojj_iucnrFlY-jmH-bCWJMDeZkF64-mn4-ew6ZjiVPB0lgzq5mg/s320/super%20el%20nino%204.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As far as the upcoming winter here in the Northeast, a super El Nino could mean overall temperatures for Dec thru Feb being well above average, with a general lack of snowfall across the region. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The idea of
a super El Nino was one of the major factors I used when I came up with my
Summer Outlook, which you can find </span><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/04/my-2023-summer-outlook-for-northeast.html" style="font-size: 14pt;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="font-size: 14pt;">. The super El Nino also figured into my
hurricane outlook for this year; but even though El Nino’s typically led to fewer
numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin; other factors such as all
the warm water in the Atlantic, hint at higher numbers than would normally be
the case during an El Nino event. If you what to look at the three-part
hurricane outlook you can find it </span><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook-part.html" style="font-size: 14pt;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="font-size: 14pt;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Well, that’s it. I hope this cleared up any
questions or confusion you had in regards to the likely very strong/super El
Nino that looks to form this year.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div></span>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-37057710791258390822023-05-11T12:53:00.015-04:002023-08-17T21:10:18.881-04:002023 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Part Three<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The 2023
Atlantic Hurricane Season is right around the corner Which is why I’ve been
talking about the tropics on my Facebook weather pages. I’ve also released part
one and part two of the outlook for 2023. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These previous
segments covered things like terms that I will use during the season; They also
laid the ground work for Part 3. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Part one can
be found <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">here</a> and Part two can be found <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/04/my-2023-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In my final
installment of hurricane outlook series. I will go more into El Nino. More
analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures, Make some adjustments to analogues. Take
a look at my latest thoughts on the numbers and impacts they could bring. Talk
about the Bermuda High, Reexamine the potential hot spots, I will also discuss
factors that could make the outlook bust. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ4cQFf1-EhVuUm6u3m55Ov829J81HzGqtrJw49xV-Gzz3nIzbS4jhauJXlYcy63Xac3_egIWR_-4VTPUO5zUbS5iIYpOo3y1M2OFQuoWoxLnHymRXsJhCXdpoUrnbsJYirVpVSMBzsLuPBNko5zWxPQnbZZ_vdbY9OMotf0S6_E7rrJEVz0Gz8-RAMQ/s1579/current%20SST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="1579" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ4cQFf1-EhVuUm6u3m55Ov829J81HzGqtrJw49xV-Gzz3nIzbS4jhauJXlYcy63Xac3_egIWR_-4VTPUO5zUbS5iIYpOo3y1M2OFQuoWoxLnHymRXsJhCXdpoUrnbsJYirVpVSMBzsLuPBNko5zWxPQnbZZ_vdbY9OMotf0S6_E7rrJEVz0Gz8-RAMQ/s320/current%20SST.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The latest SST
anomalies shown on the map from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch show something very
spectacular. Looking at the map we can see that the vast amount of the global
oceans is above average to well above average. When I look at the SST record, I couldn't find another year that had the Atlantic so warm during an El Nino. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH3C3nsGoWgQjnGDfpYa5oJnqQs3ikBMVzAYH_Wc22yXEJVTKIF2v-VYki5Wdl1Ur7Szjug3rfH3QNeqMPxTOCZuuRRxFKr01FvkRalT1NL9X5st2vVJJ-P4xeI8acsk-1MTcPt-Vkww2bC658zAJXLbMoe6iOgws-iJGDmbJvzKjM0jemCLxCeZ9K7g/s1061/SST%20world%20record%20high.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="1061" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH3C3nsGoWgQjnGDfpYa5oJnqQs3ikBMVzAYH_Wc22yXEJVTKIF2v-VYki5Wdl1Ur7Szjug3rfH3QNeqMPxTOCZuuRRxFKr01FvkRalT1NL9X5st2vVJJ-P4xeI8acsk-1MTcPt-Vkww2bC658zAJXLbMoe6iOgws-iJGDmbJvzKjM0jemCLxCeZ9K7g/s320/SST%20world%20record%20high.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In fact the oceanic water near
Peru and Ecuador in Nino Region 1+2 are well above Average, and likely record
breaking. We also have that warm blob in the western North Pacific.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do have some cooler SST in the far Southern
Hemisphere. The only other real exception, is that large patch of cool SST off
the West Coast up into the Gulf of Alaska. But for the most part the global
oceans are above average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those very warm SST off the West Coast of
South America will continue to push west into the Central Equatorial Pacific. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Atlantic
continues to see those above average SST anomalies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SSTs off the West Coast of Africa out into
the MDR across the Central Atlantic are above average. We also have those well
above average SST in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and off the East Coast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Developing
El Nino…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino is
looking increasingly likely. This means that the ENSO is in the positive phase.
As I said in Part Two, the SOI has switched to negative values. But Nino region
3.4 is still reading in the neutral range. With the Eastern and Central Pacific
warming and SOI values decreasing; it can be a strong indication of El Nino
development. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIUFVRlwlojkZnfIk2Rm4RgJABP4m3kdLvSkncFsOi1i7kgHjNEOuSTXYR5lsJ1HBK6IjVmyhANkkywi55OpGkwjwNjQKb8vvW5ub2tVYFZv5n-oQiYKlso9YFTmf73b5egj2yMVKCALPE3SOyZorwPujcBxCyGhddNI7lOcS74uIL5Wy7NVv0qPzeQ/s2295/figure03%20sst%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="2295" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIUFVRlwlojkZnfIk2Rm4RgJABP4m3kdLvSkncFsOi1i7kgHjNEOuSTXYR5lsJ1HBK6IjVmyhANkkywi55OpGkwjwNjQKb8vvW5ub2tVYFZv5n-oQiYKlso9YFTmf73b5egj2yMVKCALPE3SOyZorwPujcBxCyGhddNI7lOcS74uIL5Wy7NVv0qPzeQ/s320/figure03%20sst%201.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhn5SLFuyUj99pGnYvNDq_ND1bPqGWzDCJvxzu0KOtaS1eiNBrst51DcUqg32Z73xZ5S3c7bHCVaR57xQQLRfrYo61SqL4hQCvSXKOx87mHsSN4OznovOTHF9923WLjbCnVRfZlDC7jYLUHH-DtMKS1zoL1SkUUap3oWiUCOnn99QeZMXhoxN2Bzt2yw/s743/Nino%20regions.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="743" data-original-width="595" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhn5SLFuyUj99pGnYvNDq_ND1bPqGWzDCJvxzu0KOtaS1eiNBrst51DcUqg32Z73xZ5S3c7bHCVaR57xQQLRfrYo61SqL4hQCvSXKOx87mHsSN4OznovOTHF9923WLjbCnVRfZlDC7jYLUHH-DtMKS1zoL1SkUUap3oWiUCOnn99QeZMXhoxN2Bzt2yw/s320/Nino%20regions.jpg" width="256" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The latest
weekly Nino region 3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the easternmost Nino 3 and Nino 1+2
regions at +0.8°C and +2.7°C, respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTk-4FvUuOFPD_58gCwCsy2le95KZZ5SwccyGa_-kdcnIdDG7bEAaiSg-nmmQr6vxcIptlPBPq_CL0-Q7GJMGXX4RvZ5hTOuTFcUyd_KbVObQioLL-PEOSNnPjCiZJCYWjT1ee1_8vyTBLm1gxwLoDybVILqdaSs2GjNatqFOYKtXRfJKXerkMoaSfew/s829/sst%20subsurface.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="550" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTk-4FvUuOFPD_58gCwCsy2le95KZZ5SwccyGa_-kdcnIdDG7bEAaiSg-nmmQr6vxcIptlPBPq_CL0-Q7GJMGXX4RvZ5hTOuTFcUyd_KbVObQioLL-PEOSNnPjCiZJCYWjT1ee1_8vyTBLm1gxwLoDybVILqdaSs2GjNatqFOYKtXRfJKXerkMoaSfew/s320/sst%20subsurface.jpg" width="212" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the Subsurface water temperatures; we can see they are above average from the
International Dateline eastward to the Coast of South America. All of this warm
subsurface water is the result of the triple dip La Nina. All that is needed
is strong westerly winds to cause upwelling and bring all that warm water to
the surface. How much upwelling occurs will be a major player in how strong
this El Nino becomes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now, the
El Nino looks to start out weak, then it should go into a moderate to strong phase.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This would
mean we would see more vertical wind shear during the 2nd half of the Season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There will
be a bit of a lag as the atmosphere resets from ENSO neutral/weak El Nino to
moderate too strong. So, the first half of the season could act more La Nina
like.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">A few of the
models like the Australian are calling for a very strong (super) El Nino.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> Typically during El Nino the Caribbean sees less activity. This is due to increased windshear over that part of the Atlantic Basin. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now,
the current index is -3.05 which makes the PDO strongly in the negative phase. As
I said in the Summer Outlook, The PDO has a big influence on the ENSO. If the
PDO is in the same phase as the ENSO their Associated impact can be amplified.
However, if they’re not in the same phase the associated impact can be
reduced.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There are signs that the negative PDO has reached its peek and is starting to collapse. If the PDO does become positive, that wouldn't happen until late Summer or more likely during the Fall into Winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, while El
Nino is a typical signal for a quieter tropical season in the Atlantic
Basin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the PDO in a negative phase,
this could allow for a slightly higher number of tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic this season, than would be typical for a El Nino season. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As I’ve
already covered, the Atlantic Basin is very warm<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The AMO is a
cyclical variation of sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic
Ocean that influences weather conditions across the globe, especially North
America, Europe and Northern Africa. It typically has a cycle of 50 to 70 years.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ugDKITjREQGjK6SH_o6hk6pmMA_zYABulvmk9lvmz2sH3AdSM9i7Fpks8itAeAH5LIdlvutNGScxQ24k2kYiYUHU2UTSDzCSz2E31Ugfsn3Dr0gcIQYEI-tiEkHWdAwa9zs9QjRx5Sx9onJUQPL32P-0Hgbo2A-D3usS4M__SMYUHJovnpq5GVQcTQ/s773/posAMOtemps.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="773" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ugDKITjREQGjK6SH_o6hk6pmMA_zYABulvmk9lvmz2sH3AdSM9i7Fpks8itAeAH5LIdlvutNGScxQ24k2kYiYUHU2UTSDzCSz2E31Ugfsn3Dr0gcIQYEI-tiEkHWdAwa9zs9QjRx5Sx9onJUQPL32P-0Hgbo2A-D3usS4M__SMYUHJovnpq5GVQcTQ/s320/posAMOtemps.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The positive
phase is characterized by warm SSTs over much of the North Atlantic <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFpHmPG_5nUh-T-NSsY4R6Tt--b2CI7E81NRj5Gn3UXw5UfJFL1wgTB_XwS151AKT1i1cWbBAIf92Lv72_hEPcmEMJD5wXjsRAag6VIiSwQLvyXsZFbdTXDqqdQRDEbfhK1V_Z8bO8o4zIA13yUw2zVRyxdbmtrrHwBAT9xHuMM5cVIeWtNGW8JQ4OkQ/s773/negAMOtemps.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="773" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFpHmPG_5nUh-T-NSsY4R6Tt--b2CI7E81NRj5Gn3UXw5UfJFL1wgTB_XwS151AKT1i1cWbBAIf92Lv72_hEPcmEMJD5wXjsRAag6VIiSwQLvyXsZFbdTXDqqdQRDEbfhK1V_Z8bO8o4zIA13yUw2zVRyxdbmtrrHwBAT9xHuMM5cVIeWtNGW8JQ4OkQ/s320/negAMOtemps.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The negative
phase is a mirror image with cool surface waters over the North <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When SSTs
are anomalously high (positive phase), hurricane activity in the North Atlantic
is increased.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The African Monsoon looks to be very active this season, leading to more
tropical waves coming off the West Coast of Africa. .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Analogues…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These are the years I've decided to use for 2023. The years are the best general match to all the factors going on leading into the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1957, 1965,
1972, 1976, 1982, 1997, 2002, 2009, 2015, 2019 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1957</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqPrBuoQcA13uNhW2B2ZjNDxz-tOYsvn1r-uHXF8V72eqCIWqyIW3RUK_21maS5JxGYdOWmYBu_lijINySbD132zqIWGnB4JGLqPgiy20K287_hz1Q86Vl09QENYVSuY4DGv_60xf3IXRVg5KFDap5n9Dg3BL8Cm040grqfwVxjA6Gkyi_XyOFfGp06w/s700/sst%201957.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqPrBuoQcA13uNhW2B2ZjNDxz-tOYsvn1r-uHXF8V72eqCIWqyIW3RUK_21maS5JxGYdOWmYBu_lijINySbD132zqIWGnB4JGLqPgiy20K287_hz1Q86Vl09QENYVSuY4DGv_60xf3IXRVg5KFDap5n9Dg3BL8Cm040grqfwVxjA6Gkyi_XyOFfGp06w/s320/sst%201957.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1965</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD3C5j95BmvGRlkhcUwJ8TChYKzudU2Km9f9mutMpy4SSFwT7ZWfPWF2_dk9UxVjN5oOgOj1wY-PfhRYCzocFrXoGmnpPHyCzY4cswC2It-bE2KxfUu33T6QGr8E_FRz3Jtn5u668bx106ZRJ-RUwnCMD206WY-StVF4hJLd3O6hKgWz6xKeaW3BRodQ/s700/sst%201965.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD3C5j95BmvGRlkhcUwJ8TChYKzudU2Km9f9mutMpy4SSFwT7ZWfPWF2_dk9UxVjN5oOgOj1wY-PfhRYCzocFrXoGmnpPHyCzY4cswC2It-bE2KxfUu33T6QGr8E_FRz3Jtn5u668bx106ZRJ-RUwnCMD206WY-StVF4hJLd3O6hKgWz6xKeaW3BRodQ/s320/sst%201965.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1972</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU8IK81vsqYzG54VVk5KrBysqE9jcDmiwPQJRCqZdBMGuoXG3cYYhQWwDO1xgbZ8zj6iskuaHDEPjXcwTWjeZ0hQMi4CYXIcmztlLnz5X4eLjcSzdfhHqnyolwlU3Sm4xi5GY1yR0UedJQrwdMD2lKWZ8lGbchX7duHIRU6sIP0WLm1lFQA5LR_T5LMw/s700/sst%201972.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU8IK81vsqYzG54VVk5KrBysqE9jcDmiwPQJRCqZdBMGuoXG3cYYhQWwDO1xgbZ8zj6iskuaHDEPjXcwTWjeZ0hQMi4CYXIcmztlLnz5X4eLjcSzdfhHqnyolwlU3Sm4xi5GY1yR0UedJQrwdMD2lKWZ8lGbchX7duHIRU6sIP0WLm1lFQA5LR_T5LMw/s320/sst%201972.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1976</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4Zdu2TxBlwF12S6f4PnQzSrNcP-Gg1fh4h2GyF6VO5-hjx0IMKYHUy5cxGjA-xp91VcDoIPhkFDBTOHYqHHWIbeIQrJkZMM54xphRgXWOJBx8mCxI-9jpIOqj66bt5-Zp2zfhPUINrx3NoDL9JTMpBnLAtnojwujt1baERn2uZ853od8BlZ8Tox8sg/s700/sst%201976.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4Zdu2TxBlwF12S6f4PnQzSrNcP-Gg1fh4h2GyF6VO5-hjx0IMKYHUy5cxGjA-xp91VcDoIPhkFDBTOHYqHHWIbeIQrJkZMM54xphRgXWOJBx8mCxI-9jpIOqj66bt5-Zp2zfhPUINrx3NoDL9JTMpBnLAtnojwujt1baERn2uZ853od8BlZ8Tox8sg/s320/sst%201976.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1982</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj365_R5Yw3QYS-D1j2bw3uotiTGgHvKhu1Y-rj1eLB5wmaC8djiFrGNlbRSQ2t0MZ3eZlXpDxhbMvg0I1BJL28ppmwP7jBWwE3NJ0vBSeYvWuVTwdkDxM7pFoq722StvirbdBFHD92cQLHvznAI2K4T2SyW86Lo4WHdz7kwcEC_BA_lVdC5t6UyZdnLA/s700/sst%201982.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj365_R5Yw3QYS-D1j2bw3uotiTGgHvKhu1Y-rj1eLB5wmaC8djiFrGNlbRSQ2t0MZ3eZlXpDxhbMvg0I1BJL28ppmwP7jBWwE3NJ0vBSeYvWuVTwdkDxM7pFoq722StvirbdBFHD92cQLHvznAI2K4T2SyW86Lo4WHdz7kwcEC_BA_lVdC5t6UyZdnLA/s320/sst%201982.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1997</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT1jfUqqvOM1-H17IOP6zpQgMTE6uZhkk-56DfU7PHGggOT4ge6J90_VymBjMQnert0pCF4oV5Ss0X0mxWaDeisUBmT1Mt7ig_O51Ay_buHiw16b2jkP56LQeqJLCtUHvlmBr038gp1vpoVckbv005Cp9vJIJZVsTvT2DjwsOFdhoZUKLyNVd2iKBrdw/s700/sst%201997.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT1jfUqqvOM1-H17IOP6zpQgMTE6uZhkk-56DfU7PHGggOT4ge6J90_VymBjMQnert0pCF4oV5Ss0X0mxWaDeisUBmT1Mt7ig_O51Ay_buHiw16b2jkP56LQeqJLCtUHvlmBr038gp1vpoVckbv005Cp9vJIJZVsTvT2DjwsOFdhoZUKLyNVd2iKBrdw/s320/sst%201997.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2002</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRXL09KWR02pv2G4tij1nE841-XkojBA9RGEI3GAJqyzA9BbJjfkDCj7ixnw8VfuRvMcqqvbmGhoMhI79yqwsntRvhuNa4asFxORGwn_37ZAqBB8RCJzi__C5SCxj_In21wDhT57wm92JqmyZdBazq3rS2XG5OYdAn7yrhVWLEeCTvhQktcaAmf-6mew/s700/sst%202002.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRXL09KWR02pv2G4tij1nE841-XkojBA9RGEI3GAJqyzA9BbJjfkDCj7ixnw8VfuRvMcqqvbmGhoMhI79yqwsntRvhuNa4asFxORGwn_37ZAqBB8RCJzi__C5SCxj_In21wDhT57wm92JqmyZdBazq3rS2XG5OYdAn7yrhVWLEeCTvhQktcaAmf-6mew/s320/sst%202002.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2009</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSU_hfHgfvfCEAULkhDGWbFnifkPPiyoqrhVM1RfH1clyQthbxu7_NXTQeALvbUrGInYQQ0nr-uToTDtZCKe3uwIyt044IadjTdKHphccwtS0HKMj3-v1hIMh_dJok39dHZ_0CVWxFjXlZjuwXn8W1TlSvDfT__DYbSWxAL0HNbM8OXvG_a3bXY8VAg/s700/sst%202009.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSU_hfHgfvfCEAULkhDGWbFnifkPPiyoqrhVM1RfH1clyQthbxu7_NXTQeALvbUrGInYQQ0nr-uToTDtZCKe3uwIyt044IadjTdKHphccwtS0HKMj3-v1hIMh_dJok39dHZ_0CVWxFjXlZjuwXn8W1TlSvDfT__DYbSWxAL0HNbM8OXvG_a3bXY8VAg/s320/sst%202009.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2015</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCZuncZWprlrnWWvrT_t-HNe0ujBX84K9gWKLLtIFoM2ROHEP963y9y718JNcdw4ugVH210nkvsZSK_WBTkQGp7zaz_IY23HuN14QhM-8hAHszM7JAgw84irHC4cMxCeEq-4LvlTrN-6cXxE1_wgAZbdFsaKGLFC2WATfpbtpzqW2VIw6AWJqpDaHxVw/s700/sst%202015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCZuncZWprlrnWWvrT_t-HNe0ujBX84K9gWKLLtIFoM2ROHEP963y9y718JNcdw4ugVH210nkvsZSK_WBTkQGp7zaz_IY23HuN14QhM-8hAHszM7JAgw84irHC4cMxCeEq-4LvlTrN-6cXxE1_wgAZbdFsaKGLFC2WATfpbtpzqW2VIw6AWJqpDaHxVw/s320/sst%202015.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2019</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy7VuHxLEsImT7G6lKvB2edChCECQLgttYWYUoftdiZCCB5mtG2_uDwxsaOXisb8NMK4QyIU4yK-SFnn1i4q9OVyrsnzTd-YUz4FKnv3-rsjnheHowGezi_j4USi1tg9qRPMBeQ04BdyhOG2Gy4ZNlYw37zXSKOhlWAJjdlEb8sb-kJlkdNYaNWcDK1w/s700/sst%202019.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy7VuHxLEsImT7G6lKvB2edChCECQLgttYWYUoftdiZCCB5mtG2_uDwxsaOXisb8NMK4QyIU4yK-SFnn1i4q9OVyrsnzTd-YUz4FKnv3-rsjnheHowGezi_j4USi1tg9qRPMBeQ04BdyhOG2Gy4ZNlYw37zXSKOhlWAJjdlEb8sb-kJlkdNYaNWcDK1w/s320/sst%202019.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1967 thru 2019</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMjpzA3k2_56I51tTljc84dlD-K4wrtNS338t4pqf0kVmzoBIU807NAFimG6rVDepnZ5vRzIPciIyUFnZwzzTctoWX_q6UXpcMGwMH0iiW3WpuDi3ZJbZ4lRI8TSF3hvjNGBpijM_soL11OIyr5YjqVaTR-bXEFlimUZZooCvVYLzNyDDHkoJLrMar8w/s700/sst%20all%20analogue%20years.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMjpzA3k2_56I51tTljc84dlD-K4wrtNS338t4pqf0kVmzoBIU807NAFimG6rVDepnZ5vRzIPciIyUFnZwzzTctoWX_q6UXpcMGwMH0iiW3WpuDi3ZJbZ4lRI8TSF3hvjNGBpijM_soL11OIyr5YjqVaTR-bXEFlimUZZooCvVYLzNyDDHkoJLrMar8w/s320/sst%20all%20analogue%20years.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2023</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-sl6aDvIwR4yIr9fBIpJG94nbzaPCdbuUSwiTMFke97NZKw-WRTuBrWUUFfGWz0kAEqH944xCbWCggeY0VC840Evdjsu8BpS0jaM6aLs1Bszd8Voje9z9gvWr-8-ahtlEJN0FFZydszsBROetaXFsiDV5mgG96t3JpP_lH8JupYRTu-P3MPSFPLNQ0g/s700/sst%202023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-sl6aDvIwR4yIr9fBIpJG94nbzaPCdbuUSwiTMFke97NZKw-WRTuBrWUUFfGWz0kAEqH944xCbWCggeY0VC840Evdjsu8BpS0jaM6aLs1Bszd8Voje9z9gvWr-8-ahtlEJN0FFZydszsBROetaXFsiDV5mgG96t3JpP_lH8JupYRTu-P3MPSFPLNQ0g/s320/sst%202023.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">1957 and 1976
are being used because both were El Ninos that came after triple dip La Nina’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1972 is the
closest match to current global SSTs. 1997 is the second closest match, with 1982
just behind that.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> Based on what I'm seeing there is a good chance this El Nino could be very strong.</o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Numbers…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">In part two
I said this will be a slightly below average to average season, with 10 to 14
named storms 4-7 hurricanes and 1 -2 major hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seasonal ACE looks to be 60-90.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">But with the
other factors I’ve mentioned in part three. The seasonal activity could end up above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">My final
numbers are 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS
could see 2-4 landfalls with one of them possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Hot Spots
and impacts…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6EH9IkjwdSr3VfPEwOCtS1JpXOHgBS19Y9NyLfCENAycpjQLn0nuHxM901Rs3G5qzn_ykWSJEC0lla6mSd1ykJA2yslVdNWB83Qx2_Src8nkr9DqjJxRqDzj2rs7fJohrH72lGfcN4spLGMzuiqW0NBDAxyl53vIcMXbchu7oWZvRmDONRnkDo6uAPA/s935/Hot%20spots%20to%20watch.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="935" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6EH9IkjwdSr3VfPEwOCtS1JpXOHgBS19Y9NyLfCENAycpjQLn0nuHxM901Rs3G5qzn_ykWSJEC0lla6mSd1ykJA2yslVdNWB83Qx2_Src8nkr9DqjJxRqDzj2rs7fJohrH72lGfcN4spLGMzuiqW0NBDAxyl53vIcMXbchu7oWZvRmDONRnkDo6uAPA/s320/Hot%20spots%20to%20watch.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A moderate
risk for a few Cape Verde systems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">So, we
should see recurving systems out in the Atlantic that head into the North
Atlantic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">But the
greatest risk for tropical cyclone development will be in the Gulf of Mexico
and off the Southeast Coast.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The risk of
close in tropical cyclone development increases the risk for landfalling
tropical Storms and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast and East Coast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The East
Coast is most at risk for Landfalling systems. There is a chance the Middle
Atlantic and New England could be impacted. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Florida
could very well be in the crosshairs once again this season.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">With those
very warm water temperatures, there is going to be the risk for rapid
intensification</span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What
Could Go Wrong…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Even though
El Nino looks likely, right now the odds are around 60%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But as we saw in 2014 when a strong El Nino was being forecasted on the models. However unusually strong easterly winds in the summer
of 2014 ended up preventing the warm surface water from shifting eastward as seen
in a typical El Nino events and left a reservoir of warm water below the
ocean’s surface, resulted in the El Nino failing to really develop. But strong
westerly winds along with the very warm pool of water that developed during the
winter shifted east, this continued into the Spring and Summer of 2015 and led to the
development of the Super El Nino of 2015-2016. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is possible a similar change in the wind
regime or some other unforeseen factor could end up stopping El Nino from
developing this year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO is
in an opposite phase from El Nino; this could lead to more of an active
Atlantic hurricane season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The above
average SSTs in the Atlantic Basin, could very well help counter the El Nino
impacts, at least somewhat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Other
possibilities that could happen with the ENSO<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -0.25in;">A)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -0.25in;">El Nino Modoki</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There is a
chance that the central equatorial Pacific namely Nino region 3.4 could warm faster
than Nino 1+2, if that warm subsurface water makes it to the surface. I think
the chance of this is low, but it can’t be completely ruled out. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is research that supports the idea that
El Nino Modoki’s lead to more hurricanes than usual in the Atlantic Ocean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -0.25in;">B)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -0.25in;">La Nina Modoki</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The water
temperatures are very warm in Nino region 1+2 off the West Coast of South America. But
a closer look at the SST anomalies, show water temperatures are also rising
near Indonesia off the province of Papua. This would mean that the SSTs in the
central equatorial Pacific are slightly cooler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That could technically be called a La Nina Modoki. Again this is a lower chance, but I can't discount it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If this develops, we would be in another La
Nina. Which would have a drastic influence on the Atlantic windshear profile.
Coupled with those very warm SSTs. It could lead to a very active tropical
season in the Atlantic. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The most
recent El Nino Modoki happened in 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Bermuda
High…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We look to
see the Bermuda high setup near the Azores and then drift west during the
season. As the BH sets up in the western Atlantic in the 2nd half of the
season. Helping to direct tropical waves/cyclones toward the US, possibly increasing the landfall risk. But increased
windshear that looks to develop during the 2nd half of the season, could help counter at least some of the landfalling threat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Final
Thoughts…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There is no
way of knowing the exact number of tropical cyclones are the exact track they
will take. I’ve looked at past patterns and compared those to the current
pattern. I’ve also looked at what I think the teleconnections are saying as to
what could happen. I’ve also looked at return dates based on hurricane historic
data. 2023 is going to be a difficult year for long range hurricane outlooks,
due to the multitude of conflicting signals. I think the approach I’ve taken is
reasonable after looking at all the data. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It is important
to take the time to make a plan and also have a hurricane kit to keep your
family safe. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Well, that’s
it</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If you have
any questions regarding this outlook, please feel free to send me a comment
here or on my Facebook Weather Page <a href="https://www.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather" target="_blank">here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I have to add, </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The National
Hurricane Center has determined that that the nor’easter back in January was actually
a subtropical storm. This would make it the first Atlantic cyclone of the 2023
season.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">It is being designated as
“AL012023.” Since the January storm is considered the first of the season, the
next tropical depression that forms will be designated as “tropical depression
2.” If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Arlene.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-25971620845402693362023-04-29T23:05:00.020-04:002023-08-31T18:29:37.666-04:00My 2023 Summer Outlook for the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic Region. <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What does
this summer look to bring us? To prepare for the months ahead, here is my
Northeast Summer Forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">To develop
the summer forecast, I analyzed a range of factors, including a variety of
analogues, sea- surface temperatures, and other information. This year, the
ENSO (El Nino) pattern and water temperatures in the north Pacific Ocean are
looking to be major factors affecting this summer’s temperature and
precipitation outlook.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This
Spring…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Despite
several cooler than average days so far in April, those periods of
record-breaking summerlike temperatures have resulted in April as a whole,
being overall above average across the region. Seeing temperatures that warm is
very rare, the pattern doesn’t support sustained temperature that high until we
get into June.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWeU9jC54MIpwnDaZcZTQImjUcU2Powu2-oxmio7Gmh1hj1et-W2xr40m1xESM2MvVzI85UaAg0A1t8fRce220A42Axq9TCCjTggMlNu-FDVRmrGZZb6ihYaNwyNEicfLqjGMUixTShKcA13W21S9rrapShl6-3lAM1jb9H1Xbyv5i7MBxIpcvxF9QUg/s565/apr%20temp%201-28.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="565" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWeU9jC54MIpwnDaZcZTQImjUcU2Powu2-oxmio7Gmh1hj1et-W2xr40m1xESM2MvVzI85UaAg0A1t8fRce220A42Axq9TCCjTggMlNu-FDVRmrGZZb6ihYaNwyNEicfLqjGMUixTShKcA13W21S9rrapShl6-3lAM1jb9H1Xbyv5i7MBxIpcvxF9QUg/s320/apr%20temp%201-28.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMxTmS1HanAytVTXy246_Ve-RHRTPQWgYH-rm7uG7BId-0tSCeQqTNCPhL8TjPeNQG8w3-YM6uVW_Wode53nIEQ4dPL_9BLePw-6oo8DyACwq1jc3GzWXwCt0jkpY-ij8eZ4O49LgN9C2xhjXiCamTGGO0bXNRoXc98LaR_mhMcUL2tf_ncisPA6PEeQ/s900/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_MTD_20230428.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="639" data-original-width="900" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMxTmS1HanAytVTXy246_Ve-RHRTPQWgYH-rm7uG7BId-0tSCeQqTNCPhL8TjPeNQG8w3-YM6uVW_Wode53nIEQ4dPL_9BLePw-6oo8DyACwq1jc3GzWXwCt0jkpY-ij8eZ4O49LgN9C2xhjXiCamTGGO0bXNRoXc98LaR_mhMcUL2tf_ncisPA6PEeQ/s320/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_MTD_20230428.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now,
it looks like May as a whole, will be overall average to slightly below
average. But this time of year, slightly below average temperatures doesn’t
have that much of an impact, so it will still be very springlike.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk4IDVio6iiJHAFwDnPPzht4rZNwCqWwGjO9xQSS8-xSgdVQLxGaAibpQtmgOlEsQAxqjrp4cOT-D1hCdsJvWcWKTq5gMJW_7USAj1oVBQrOI7_KPd4VXmD42iTI4X7RQuX33PZ8eM9nlZ-iZzzK5LnxHzCE0UuoKUV-4ljB-w0I1cIbeExr7WAsZAkw/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk4IDVio6iiJHAFwDnPPzht4rZNwCqWwGjO9xQSS8-xSgdVQLxGaAibpQtmgOlEsQAxqjrp4cOT-D1hCdsJvWcWKTq5gMJW_7USAj1oVBQrOI7_KPd4VXmD42iTI4X7RQuX33PZ8eM9nlZ-iZzzK5LnxHzCE0UuoKUV-4ljB-w0I1cIbeExr7WAsZAkw/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Climate
Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS has us in an El Nino Watch. This is the Warm Phase (Positive
Phase) of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTo3n_51jO_-bne4mgy_LNHgN8wNzTWiPs49iph-FiquM19d4pVZRNEZz0P6j4LH3dXLMcUyQUy8bktgCB-fwqI-LhguFtieao8PMsHfs2yxXN3jyDyfo1S96DlvRP3trdJ1d74Xo7TZ5jM9fF4Uv9oEWfHDnkA5GjERxpSTO1DxH_Wd0ywhDOueOUQ/s913/El%20Nino%20Watch.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="913" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTo3n_51jO_-bne4mgy_LNHgN8wNzTWiPs49iph-FiquM19d4pVZRNEZz0P6j4LH3dXLMcUyQUy8bktgCB-fwqI-LhguFtieao8PMsHfs2yxXN3jyDyfo1S96DlvRP3trdJ1d74Xo7TZ5jM9fF4Uv9oEWfHDnkA5GjERxpSTO1DxH_Wd0ywhDOueOUQ/s320/El%20Nino%20Watch.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Historically when the CPC places us in an El
Nino Watch, an El Nino developed half of the time. So, while El Nino is likely,
the issuance of a Watch is no guarantee that it will develop. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There is
significant amount of warmer than average Sea Surface temperatures and Sub
surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The SST anomalies
continue to strengthen in the tropical eastern Pacific. Those very warm SST off
the West Coast of South America will continue to push west into the Central
Equatorial Pacific for June and July. East based El Nino's are typically warmer than their central based (modoki) counterparts. So how the El Nino ends up (if it does) developing will have a lot to say about temperatures. But based on what I'm seeing, I'm leaning toward the idea of a very strong El Nino by the time we get closer to the coming Winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) index numbers. Negative numbers tilt
toward El Nino which creates weaker trade winds over the Pacific. When the
numbers are positive, they tilt toward La Nina which creates stronger trade
winds over the Pacific. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As of this
writing, the 30-day average is at -1.76. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0_nwKwvlgJxLCXCXiEBbiB89kg71mD6IStL3LwtArg7Fn8vvAEZdNswGJhhkYxS9WBzsHSsiVqk0Irqo6Du9rF1p5VlDQil1Q1ELS5eHnIMH0kySyk2KkHe40ppSbvBhsjfE4p9iY-5xT3uWorj_HvBXUILU_V2QmAfTnTEwU5Ekr42fjKnUHP_t7Yw/s972/SOI%20index.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="972" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0_nwKwvlgJxLCXCXiEBbiB89kg71mD6IStL3LwtArg7Fn8vvAEZdNswGJhhkYxS9WBzsHSsiVqk0Irqo6Du9rF1p5VlDQil1Q1ELS5eHnIMH0kySyk2KkHe40ppSbvBhsjfE4p9iY-5xT3uWorj_HvBXUILU_V2QmAfTnTEwU5Ekr42fjKnUHP_t7Yw/s320/SOI%20index.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We currently
have a warm blob in the western North Pacific. At the same time, we have cooler
than average SST off the West Coast of North America. This places us in the
cool phase (negative phase) of the PDO. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEA5rMOwMTf_xH6sJEEopby5I7squhmeBJOFtmEfpML8Yu09cyYRIDRb5MoKsIEeHk7NHDFME0XFfin9U21ggYS45camNP5n8zjxbDU-tUGfH4H7ciaeUZdllSb1X7smo-A0V-qmli1z_Ul7c5Tnl9KRqIK-U9HowgxINVCvCth4lVPfeUoXCa9No-Ow/s640/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="262" data-original-width="640" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEA5rMOwMTf_xH6sJEEopby5I7squhmeBJOFtmEfpML8Yu09cyYRIDRb5MoKsIEeHk7NHDFME0XFfin9U21ggYS45camNP5n8zjxbDU-tUGfH4H7ciaeUZdllSb1X7smo-A0V-qmli1z_Ul7c5Tnl9KRqIK-U9HowgxINVCvCth4lVPfeUoXCa9No-Ow/s320/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <br /><br /><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO has
a big influence on the ENSO. If the PDO is in the same phase as the ENSO their Associated
impact can be amplified. However, if they’re not in the same phase the associated
impact can be reduced. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
chart showing the PDO index phase shifts from January 1854 Through March 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Ak8HbqbhJR4q9_ZX4Gg9qmZvLJ9lOjY7TxMXLxehaU-WuF6SQzhtw6CRlXxAFdA6JQRxdUivssUu7sMIBb6KU5BM940f98OSLUKWd_hDI2_pPrSZO-Jwhv8AANlPp0xQDS5C5l9TSOpsuZaOE2fN5TPYM5BAH8G9XE3OdrDOvsVA6NVw8tkBVo7s0w/s1725/PDO%20phases%20from%201854%20to%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="1725" height="105" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Ak8HbqbhJR4q9_ZX4Gg9qmZvLJ9lOjY7TxMXLxehaU-WuF6SQzhtw6CRlXxAFdA6JQRxdUivssUu7sMIBb6KU5BM940f98OSLUKWd_hDI2_pPrSZO-Jwhv8AANlPp0xQDS5C5l9TSOpsuZaOE2fN5TPYM5BAH8G9XE3OdrDOvsVA6NVw8tkBVo7s0w/s320/PDO%20phases%20from%201854%20to%202023.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation (QBO)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This summer
will likely feature <a name="_Hlk140236253">a negative QBO</a>. Typically, a
negative QBO sets up ridging in the west, with a trough in the east, making a
pattern where the Northeast has to deal with persistent upper-level lows impacting
the region. A negative QBO also tends to lend support for predominate negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Oscillation. This would mean
we could have higher odds of seeing high latitude blocking. While this would make for a great winter pattern, for snow lovers; it wouldn't be a good pattern for summer weather lovers. <o:p></o:p></span></p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Analogues…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here are the
analogues I’m using for my 2023 Summer Outlook<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1963, 1965,
1976, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2015<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">500mb Geopotential
Height Composite Anomaly 1991-2020<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizmLMfvgk_bNUpC88Lf-9RKJY1MicUKbh71HwlpcGKo7rJdCsw2uu7_JY2MIboWcrbHR9TK_cHr2aY7GAdkYC7OSCF2SjMCXzEWCYG_OStKNtgLEKARZ33dohQBVlqj3B51P2ET_odVpUNLI7FGjNVFQJo1jbi6scYZQFCqwNgLl1mwwhyXvWmrTZAhA/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201963.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizmLMfvgk_bNUpC88Lf-9RKJY1MicUKbh71HwlpcGKo7rJdCsw2uu7_JY2MIboWcrbHR9TK_cHr2aY7GAdkYC7OSCF2SjMCXzEWCYG_OStKNtgLEKARZ33dohQBVlqj3B51P2ET_odVpUNLI7FGjNVFQJo1jbi6scYZQFCqwNgLl1mwwhyXvWmrTZAhA/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201963.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii4FAigSiczUMVMWqhnoSsUU_w5FfIhgE2AVtO8KjS13icMCpNDT2gERCpqPdluEJzyKdy3_rGJAR_oF8Ofye-q2wq2x7fNyEwvoSIyvnbfFdwc03Pu3laUsx2mzn8YeRUNvWozjUumx0hqZY8G7OIaMVTF7y7qJ5Va73qe_S7dbQC0EExIbn5iit0Ww/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201965.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii4FAigSiczUMVMWqhnoSsUU_w5FfIhgE2AVtO8KjS13icMCpNDT2gERCpqPdluEJzyKdy3_rGJAR_oF8Ofye-q2wq2x7fNyEwvoSIyvnbfFdwc03Pu3laUsx2mzn8YeRUNvWozjUumx0hqZY8G7OIaMVTF7y7qJ5Va73qe_S7dbQC0EExIbn5iit0Ww/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201965.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgEqv8GYHH4WbXXtokqPRSgWDoJh-yXZ0dJmMVBDYUTopKesMLhIlPIKmZ6GxvTb5Rj1lCcunUF0fQsoeNbh9e9qwK0xVwy2rw-rOrAk87awJIaQTUfcQROzB4ozmpNP3X6FDAytK8jZTS44hfqvMkjWmkfnbTjsF6AHFIlO97gZh2DZT77BZIEhhNyw/s700/jun%20to%20aug%201976%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="700" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgEqv8GYHH4WbXXtokqPRSgWDoJh-yXZ0dJmMVBDYUTopKesMLhIlPIKmZ6GxvTb5Rj1lCcunUF0fQsoeNbh9e9qwK0xVwy2rw-rOrAk87awJIaQTUfcQROzB4ozmpNP3X6FDAytK8jZTS44hfqvMkjWmkfnbTjsF6AHFIlO97gZh2DZT77BZIEhhNyw/s320/jun%20to%20aug%201976%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiraHA0nj9u1BG0OJ9dz2BjCnvBgb_umW-LXsX5QfvzaBX6NW-yzpilf5RSiHXA7gv-wMoRqsn-ywY9xdDFU-9tn1LMIaIC-97IyAC04GcpbMCZcTbZWYY_Epq6wKQVW1bH1axC1Te3aPLsgRrJwuGSCjKYd_OzuJ5wB5CI-ZSzKiFJr4EgHGp-eXOkwQ/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201982.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiraHA0nj9u1BG0OJ9dz2BjCnvBgb_umW-LXsX5QfvzaBX6NW-yzpilf5RSiHXA7gv-wMoRqsn-ywY9xdDFU-9tn1LMIaIC-97IyAC04GcpbMCZcTbZWYY_Epq6wKQVW1bH1axC1Te3aPLsgRrJwuGSCjKYd_OzuJ5wB5CI-ZSzKiFJr4EgHGp-eXOkwQ/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201982.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSjCGuDuUMubDQxyZ-qNFSLIBChkT6XFI-1D0-dAYEJs7SDrCZwRmunK9ZB1hH3OJHgfflxWdHAFABeAOGCGTtMfrZB1UnIwipV5VyoiOpOjo0UsBiVA6X_MPqiOXFgwa3Cgu-jkGVvWCddazfbHyGD1PHg0QoUhp6e1wTTFim9DyT-Qb85dH_x2wbkg/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%20%201986.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSjCGuDuUMubDQxyZ-qNFSLIBChkT6XFI-1D0-dAYEJs7SDrCZwRmunK9ZB1hH3OJHgfflxWdHAFABeAOGCGTtMfrZB1UnIwipV5VyoiOpOjo0UsBiVA6X_MPqiOXFgwa3Cgu-jkGVvWCddazfbHyGD1PHg0QoUhp6e1wTTFim9DyT-Qb85dH_x2wbkg/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%20%201986.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FxVI_zi7NXYiFTat5IFFp_GGkFNUf5iJu_qjVf3gm9Xfxv3LywjxpYDbfuUBkh2obD0ox_R2J1VMxqCeBZAYZKMtvyI0gG348DZsqAuiONIwZij8ONroR921YUXeMkpoOywEtGxIv_YjhWtFB_Crl799yCK7JLBjPr5m2kvQUFMqku0DmgyTuJSenA/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201997.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FxVI_zi7NXYiFTat5IFFp_GGkFNUf5iJu_qjVf3gm9Xfxv3LywjxpYDbfuUBkh2obD0ox_R2J1VMxqCeBZAYZKMtvyI0gG348DZsqAuiONIwZij8ONroR921YUXeMkpoOywEtGxIv_YjhWtFB_Crl799yCK7JLBjPr5m2kvQUFMqku0DmgyTuJSenA/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%201997.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Q5j8f-K4jXgFkdQl38iAH5WciXz-Ed50zgmCYR9vGYS8zBUD0T1yYwWiHzweoTeumGHyJKMhof-KmDixf02zBNupm--UjMc4HT2WpYTevYt4_-dlOI_gnKDRIm9tdtzyQSqy8_tTHIw0hEjyFEd661d6_p5LG6GVChx8BIw3cLk0hAoFYMxjYFr5eg/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%202009.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Q5j8f-K4jXgFkdQl38iAH5WciXz-Ed50zgmCYR9vGYS8zBUD0T1yYwWiHzweoTeumGHyJKMhof-KmDixf02zBNupm--UjMc4HT2WpYTevYt4_-dlOI_gnKDRIm9tdtzyQSqy8_tTHIw0hEjyFEd661d6_p5LG6GVChx8BIw3cLk0hAoFYMxjYFr5eg/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%202009.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDpP8P7f7UOJodyzP2WSqFKQLxbZILNpSTNt_Ye2q0UjxmKJSg3jUJSnn9Wm8BTUAwhPC0vjmTavaGJIurx6nXJMqrSJHJT0QJqSeOGtzajKTPCvOpefBTFJAI6FvaPAlXqfefANTL0078OGeBcm8tOLHduBueU96OjgU0GOyyExh6W3KvD_kYmt4f6w/s700/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%202015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDpP8P7f7UOJodyzP2WSqFKQLxbZILNpSTNt_Ye2q0UjxmKJSg3jUJSnn9Wm8BTUAwhPC0vjmTavaGJIurx6nXJMqrSJHJT0QJqSeOGtzajKTPCvOpefBTFJAI6FvaPAlXqfefANTL0078OGeBcm8tOLHduBueU96OjgU0GOyyExh6W3KvD_kYmt4f6w/s320/500mb%20Geopotential%20Height%202015.png" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">The combined Composite years </span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">Geopotential Height Composite Anomaly</span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"> for Jun – Aug</span><br /><o:p><br /><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmTwxjDwYDdnixcTxtvrGRHP2pS4-UpgGo5Vius0e041hMYgqQ9XKpXZfI64B2ioe-0cMEU32VEKJvitSckO0t3iM0W1iDrXqSklWXTUCwKTKvfa2dADZdfBmTm8fGSE1TlGlCXcu04J6-zDnXWWT1ZlIWPimy7mx_q_YldUhM1pYjuPhb7V60xKmaPw/s700/500%20mb%20all%20years%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="700" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmTwxjDwYDdnixcTxtvrGRHP2pS4-UpgGo5Vius0e041hMYgqQ9XKpXZfI64B2ioe-0cMEU32VEKJvitSckO0t3iM0W1iDrXqSklWXTUCwKTKvfa2dADZdfBmTm8fGSE1TlGlCXcu04J6-zDnXWWT1ZlIWPimy7mx_q_YldUhM1pYjuPhb7V60xKmaPw/s320/500%20mb%20all%20years%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The individual
analogue years Composite June through August Temperature Anomalies</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrxabzdCkjgezG75Nz7n3MCvCdDPlQrPQ8QiKM5fYF_wBFbPKz6u1iS2pPq2rnh3gBayal2OaiydNvFWlgu0KTZ_knjrnloSOYRqEKVd5UY0PC5-MTpqqQPebvyZFefmq9YV8tJrmAB1elrV4eTEY9jaaRYLfscfuj6GeqhUgBlp6DODpGxCfZhl61QA/s550/Composite%20Temperature%201963.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrxabzdCkjgezG75Nz7n3MCvCdDPlQrPQ8QiKM5fYF_wBFbPKz6u1iS2pPq2rnh3gBayal2OaiydNvFWlgu0KTZ_knjrnloSOYRqEKVd5UY0PC5-MTpqqQPebvyZFefmq9YV8tJrmAB1elrV4eTEY9jaaRYLfscfuj6GeqhUgBlp6DODpGxCfZhl61QA/s320/Composite%20Temperature%201963.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTlx3iObMgAL1KQ6Kchw8KEdhokvf39o6IvWadSV-ALHUxPLJAZ38Y6Ia9JzUkm5MCmaUlyF7O5SZKJZIYDh9PBx47vRk1aHHjT9_rVF4y7lfo1KqQa4eYtmwoNH0rKojtAmLouB9zWL-DHFcoaydJI7JHb62HzxECnh4p1FArrmHZ1_hywXziwczIdg/s550/Composite%20Temperature%20%201965.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTlx3iObMgAL1KQ6Kchw8KEdhokvf39o6IvWadSV-ALHUxPLJAZ38Y6Ia9JzUkm5MCmaUlyF7O5SZKJZIYDh9PBx47vRk1aHHjT9_rVF4y7lfo1KqQa4eYtmwoNH0rKojtAmLouB9zWL-DHFcoaydJI7JHb62HzxECnh4p1FArrmHZ1_hywXziwczIdg/s320/Composite%20Temperature%20%201965.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTmMZIqZXzXi3OuvsanElDmPTmDzstYUNe4aZxBWHZmkWS8JfaVFRM8Va_JNy8RPPDSRLOXivvuVq6IlrelIZNO_LYp64x_x1z_dVLI5z9jxq1_4H9ZCI1u6xI4iiI8WUl-p2j4-oHZFWa163vAwkWc5i1XudrXtCxA3SV82PlevV_1pKUGdFnHVq9A/s550/temp%201976%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsTmMZIqZXzXi3OuvsanElDmPTmDzstYUNe4aZxBWHZmkWS8JfaVFRM8Va_JNy8RPPDSRLOXivvuVq6IlrelIZNO_LYp64x_x1z_dVLI5z9jxq1_4H9ZCI1u6xI4iiI8WUl-p2j4-oHZFWa163vAwkWc5i1XudrXtCxA3SV82PlevV_1pKUGdFnHVq9A/s320/temp%201976%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Qru27pTICZ3MOASzqS5Vb6GGM9Si3VC3rDFuSwOtmLFhS_nst6cFUVn6YGklq_iilq_20hOfVEJLtYjbet47APR7WoZvBY5H_WPCrx6uBkykOwBvOydJFv9UnngtXyYjVH6K_Q6T_nc-mmCkI1M3zmFBjXRXOdLgnj27vtRpCwbJfa29ZQmnKcQhbg/s550/Composite%20Temperature%201982.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Qru27pTICZ3MOASzqS5Vb6GGM9Si3VC3rDFuSwOtmLFhS_nst6cFUVn6YGklq_iilq_20hOfVEJLtYjbet47APR7WoZvBY5H_WPCrx6uBkykOwBvOydJFv9UnngtXyYjVH6K_Q6T_nc-mmCkI1M3zmFBjXRXOdLgnj27vtRpCwbJfa29ZQmnKcQhbg/s320/Composite%20Temperature%201982.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6WGEXjD2PjUL2CXk8MbYlzXFdVVo9VTM0Vnopfx4YEcG_9lyVCfBxIR9qukf1wJALekaw2lwfGCzlgT3O5TtS281GZSK52bKvDLGZt1YMafhsr3bfF6Jka21jce29fvW7AnmZ0zxz3LDXh3VyLNrlLK4k0YTLAWCYJxdbYrCn9zdXAlvYTHE8gQz9yA/s550/Composite%20Temperature%201986.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6WGEXjD2PjUL2CXk8MbYlzXFdVVo9VTM0Vnopfx4YEcG_9lyVCfBxIR9qukf1wJALekaw2lwfGCzlgT3O5TtS281GZSK52bKvDLGZt1YMafhsr3bfF6Jka21jce29fvW7AnmZ0zxz3LDXh3VyLNrlLK4k0YTLAWCYJxdbYrCn9zdXAlvYTHE8gQz9yA/s320/Composite%20Temperature%201986.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcPPCUDrbc-SCSeAuL6cwPOILsTVaQbDtEdxbA2mderTtMC6Hrw46eW5ZVj7ehJWc4FwU6wcCfEbPp4wgkueZ__PWfZuEYAQK4tgsgXQFmXBTn8icIoAsvG1qJl-xlfcwLHt6h2VQk0Fcdnw2gDgp7zXNXjaK5-4KX-7RrhqJfT5qqQrz_5EslQoHM9A/s550/Composite%20Temperature%201997.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcPPCUDrbc-SCSeAuL6cwPOILsTVaQbDtEdxbA2mderTtMC6Hrw46eW5ZVj7ehJWc4FwU6wcCfEbPp4wgkueZ__PWfZuEYAQK4tgsgXQFmXBTn8icIoAsvG1qJl-xlfcwLHt6h2VQk0Fcdnw2gDgp7zXNXjaK5-4KX-7RrhqJfT5qqQrz_5EslQoHM9A/s320/Composite%20Temperature%201997.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMiQ2ozQoA-LAZ9k9J7XG5Z1Vmz71vGxrxybojRJHvg9sMRWX_EKeMfHnq2j8dzwYUkbnk0nzvcIdqfgsrUg8MsMgvBlrQ5-tjpJv98j88ADYsr4WO6CIvdEDmJUzIkKbo8Op3t0_sEM9hN4L1VfxVm7qPEzXUtxSbhvr4xEpNo8JHXdo0KGYQrXuN7A/s550/Composite%20Temperature%202009.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMiQ2ozQoA-LAZ9k9J7XG5Z1Vmz71vGxrxybojRJHvg9sMRWX_EKeMfHnq2j8dzwYUkbnk0nzvcIdqfgsrUg8MsMgvBlrQ5-tjpJv98j88ADYsr4WO6CIvdEDmJUzIkKbo8Op3t0_sEM9hN4L1VfxVm7qPEzXUtxSbhvr4xEpNo8JHXdo0KGYQrXuN7A/s320/Composite%20Temperature%202009.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjErR8zVCTZNamK4oAMTjpzTyZ_WPizECLUdXlD0Yr4r8lWHeZSUhPopsLbEyREv23XEbg3z3_gEiPIexYYl2WytUGg16Hhw87lc3qow3gnPAyGv78-AxlGlvFstMzWRPuPWzZyRDbq4qXEp59s_4CexGSxnzWCCsa0-KDHY_x-oPm5L6L-5-QhxGlnSA/s550/Composite%20Temperature%20%202015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjErR8zVCTZNamK4oAMTjpzTyZ_WPizECLUdXlD0Yr4r8lWHeZSUhPopsLbEyREv23XEbg3z3_gEiPIexYYl2WytUGg16Hhw87lc3qow3gnPAyGv78-AxlGlvFstMzWRPuPWzZyRDbq4qXEp59s_4CexGSxnzWCCsa0-KDHY_x-oPm5L6L-5-QhxGlnSA/s320/Composite%20Temperature%20%202015.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The combined
Composite years Temperature anomaly for Jun – Aug</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMhzxZOwBHosm0p7BujbzCkPswVkqfVGAlqK1kwyDnBi4gGHUKNkKRTbk_7fkPZnmFkUk3XmBXT9Vfcde5w37iG17QsDGeqLK0ERvD2r_oYs8bvnS4bA-YDOJydF5r9xYLk0FZ1F-NculU1X5QU2TLQEkrgQh3tT0j0jvD2nImaHcTDxzl1FJSjCsOgA/s550/temp%2063%20thru%2015%20all%20years.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMhzxZOwBHosm0p7BujbzCkPswVkqfVGAlqK1kwyDnBi4gGHUKNkKRTbk_7fkPZnmFkUk3XmBXT9Vfcde5w37iG17QsDGeqLK0ERvD2r_oYs8bvnS4bA-YDOJydF5r9xYLk0FZ1F-NculU1X5QU2TLQEkrgQh3tT0j0jvD2nImaHcTDxzl1FJSjCsOgA/s320/temp%2063%20thru%2015%20all%20years.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The individual
analogue years Composite June through August <a name="_Hlk133686270">Precipitation</a>
Anomalies<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy_e1q7J_28IdoN_hGnldwRZVE8GjFc4pdE5HGeeT11oVnVGbfYvG_OeoBi7TCl4zH18fRxg68QijHkPZ6dYWNTR6DI-V8fecHvYGIkSVZWb9691HlyRNYAss7Tz6ND4m3rz7MkOIkL573IBEPmoNw1bL1a2ca_IVNLcUO1rByvHsqb6UhzZQxBkyv1g/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%201963.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy_e1q7J_28IdoN_hGnldwRZVE8GjFc4pdE5HGeeT11oVnVGbfYvG_OeoBi7TCl4zH18fRxg68QijHkPZ6dYWNTR6DI-V8fecHvYGIkSVZWb9691HlyRNYAss7Tz6ND4m3rz7MkOIkL573IBEPmoNw1bL1a2ca_IVNLcUO1rByvHsqb6UhzZQxBkyv1g/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%201963.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx2oWLywOaj_-yabbg7xKfK-5U02nRY-w7uWkZIaG7b8dsRhrBf7B7cc3TOm7N2mCS7g4Fr1ezdKfrAVKqJ4mX1bSezswFB452ZayhvjfsGC-BcP0WT0xx8TBmrHJBkY2hhl-8y4qezKtCA7iibV1o8rQNeeuZIHd48wcMV0Q3Cyv16pcmxAGW4R9bjw/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%201965.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx2oWLywOaj_-yabbg7xKfK-5U02nRY-w7uWkZIaG7b8dsRhrBf7B7cc3TOm7N2mCS7g4Fr1ezdKfrAVKqJ4mX1bSezswFB452ZayhvjfsGC-BcP0WT0xx8TBmrHJBkY2hhl-8y4qezKtCA7iibV1o8rQNeeuZIHd48wcMV0Q3Cyv16pcmxAGW4R9bjw/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%201965.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggSWJfrPqSm44R3zJkfwDGfloI9B3V0knS7f8SVP7XRYHuW96Sp5F-2yeUKRGL4B6Q9LIiLOI9AbLDG1VTI72smWl6IiTi0qF4h5FF_-tSasO2n3Fgv4wAe9cDijrLOiwYKYfgmu9l3qymV8ND_UsDmDOZ70CzDucwuTUTBXAeu11_-DY8o1kcZ9S6uw/s550/preicp%201976.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggSWJfrPqSm44R3zJkfwDGfloI9B3V0knS7f8SVP7XRYHuW96Sp5F-2yeUKRGL4B6Q9LIiLOI9AbLDG1VTI72smWl6IiTi0qF4h5FF_-tSasO2n3Fgv4wAe9cDijrLOiwYKYfgmu9l3qymV8ND_UsDmDOZ70CzDucwuTUTBXAeu11_-DY8o1kcZ9S6uw/s320/preicp%201976.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUZvEQcyzr3NYy-BzWDflKyU_XmUv5EU2Nkwg95pCWDiHSsQIWumqYdfrTVfTOOlL_fBkg3pX8JxoAge1OWDo9afmbmoy1iRSq2jKKeJg9I_jrADMsq3dc-UopOA1DMkqlDGCdhDHyBTUWbCmkxYG4hXMnqis2TND5emfSqHb18PB_LI0QXntNkz0NvA/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%201982.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUZvEQcyzr3NYy-BzWDflKyU_XmUv5EU2Nkwg95pCWDiHSsQIWumqYdfrTVfTOOlL_fBkg3pX8JxoAge1OWDo9afmbmoy1iRSq2jKKeJg9I_jrADMsq3dc-UopOA1DMkqlDGCdhDHyBTUWbCmkxYG4hXMnqis2TND5emfSqHb18PB_LI0QXntNkz0NvA/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%201982.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDF9WKWQjm-MeozhVbL-xDsi_U4gEE-4qKdcB-oCnwd5QcFAQuedZLU0bhvcZKu1394rRRZp4mRn9hEKQAdQY4kYMlMtYbj7snOuV_8U40qG4Zh0qV-vLHfnnvwqp2v6eWPQLzEwDUzvlg4xdM2VH1oi6Y7jBAGM7tZVVkclov2ah8jScYWPY3Nd-s3Q/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%201986.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDF9WKWQjm-MeozhVbL-xDsi_U4gEE-4qKdcB-oCnwd5QcFAQuedZLU0bhvcZKu1394rRRZp4mRn9hEKQAdQY4kYMlMtYbj7snOuV_8U40qG4Zh0qV-vLHfnnvwqp2v6eWPQLzEwDUzvlg4xdM2VH1oi6Y7jBAGM7tZVVkclov2ah8jScYWPY3Nd-s3Q/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%201986.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKO-GsVl_VBfE9MrKjpV1Ei-o-BINM5S8nfVV3VyDvg5b5HUbeFxFGb0Ta1qTjIzvdV1K-AY9oGAF2OhAjwxhl84YSlzBe__-dqomE0tCidapalXIJDMVqzfdiJrlI_wNuZJzbHd354hyubOAnqgOzWe0nofKlfLW_LH80fdfT9vRDY915yji8kqTOng/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%201997.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKO-GsVl_VBfE9MrKjpV1Ei-o-BINM5S8nfVV3VyDvg5b5HUbeFxFGb0Ta1qTjIzvdV1K-AY9oGAF2OhAjwxhl84YSlzBe__-dqomE0tCidapalXIJDMVqzfdiJrlI_wNuZJzbHd354hyubOAnqgOzWe0nofKlfLW_LH80fdfT9vRDY915yji8kqTOng/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%201997.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIrLEgsjS0xW4RAcalFDV0UNeKR8k8pFzLoZktWMclgYX99y0CFKstQGHdul0rptJkfepfECYaGfxZUZjIankmWFMw1EuUK6H1U-wCppDmMHPJYUBjRT0wMkEAtgSbzKv2TWMlbUCFn3pXZIY6zsTE8e3kJ16y-sCvbYEtGMq6XP1miFPeilF72Wyp-Q/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%202009.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIrLEgsjS0xW4RAcalFDV0UNeKR8k8pFzLoZktWMclgYX99y0CFKstQGHdul0rptJkfepfECYaGfxZUZjIankmWFMw1EuUK6H1U-wCppDmMHPJYUBjRT0wMkEAtgSbzKv2TWMlbUCFn3pXZIY6zsTE8e3kJ16y-sCvbYEtGMq6XP1miFPeilF72Wyp-Q/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%202009.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSMWz_u27y0Djh0rUoSo65s_b7-ZWDpFo2isNoc4qp0QFoVMvUhBtM6V3fVZq6OIGDFYNTUvW2cP1Hs3lTSTY2_rfP4-IgN8aocStfqhqYZQYns6ZjmK6GdVLGRMQVmHF6ybDKMP-N8W8Hu7xJ-U9F73K5gNrxblFQBxQsZYu0lOBLPWILuzn-jC9B7g/s550/Composite%20Precipitation%202015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSMWz_u27y0Djh0rUoSo65s_b7-ZWDpFo2isNoc4qp0QFoVMvUhBtM6V3fVZq6OIGDFYNTUvW2cP1Hs3lTSTY2_rfP4-IgN8aocStfqhqYZQYns6ZjmK6GdVLGRMQVmHF6ybDKMP-N8W8Hu7xJ-U9F73K5gNrxblFQBxQsZYu0lOBLPWILuzn-jC9B7g/s320/Composite%20Precipitation%202015.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The combined
Composite years Precipitation anomaly for Jun - Aug</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsUhaxqj6KfO72Wobxp5tQe4miaYUCIzGw23QhDzww3gM9B3pzaI_7_q4BPt05q5Wwohmt2r1lH0zau7Cra5njIWKDV4JAn6bSBJXSqsJ2QFet2Le-WTXh4PFHSQv80mp_QL-TJI97B6CxMb4bd0uvEggfCsSU51fcWzfH0_YN_Ve_-v1md3EaQrZ0Mg/s550/precip%2063%20thru%2015%20all%20years.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsUhaxqj6KfO72Wobxp5tQe4miaYUCIzGw23QhDzww3gM9B3pzaI_7_q4BPt05q5Wwohmt2r1lH0zau7Cra5njIWKDV4JAn6bSBJXSqsJ2QFet2Le-WTXh4PFHSQv80mp_QL-TJI97B6CxMb4bd0uvEggfCsSU51fcWzfH0_YN_Ve_-v1md3EaQrZ0Mg/s320/precip%2063%20thru%2015%20all%20years.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1963 was a moderate
El Nino, 1965 was a strong El Nino, 1976 weak El Nino, 1982 very strong El
Nino, 1986 was a moderate El Nino, 1997 <a name="_Hlk133662845">was a very strong El Nino</a>, 2009 was a moderate
El Nino, 2015 was a very strong El Nino<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1963 was a
moderate cool phase, 1965 was a moderate cool phase, 1975 moderate to strong
cool phase, 1982 was a weakening moderate cool phase, 1986 was a strong warm
phase, 1997 was a very strong warm phase, 2009 was a moderate cool phase, 2015
was a moderate to strong warm phase.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look at the analogue years. We can see El Nino and the PDO do have a temperature and precipitation correlation. The Northeast and Middle Atlantic tend to be quite warm when both the ENSO and PDO are strongly positive. When <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">the ENSO and PDO are in opposite phases, the farther they are apart the colder the CONUS becomes. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwcYRqWt0dhxZqLHGB791mksO-dD_Cdh1P9xOLSSfAsyDxyk8LrBu_kTOfQcMJ1WpM9jKtw-t2vbLKixwZ9pHr9EnzpDENnoSSnpGasGVlYpfIPT1FAzzpgi21fz8_uqUgKj2m7zE0RpXoIKg0OLzGtS0SDknlKOl-eWYxGtyGBoSh7JMfBX2O9g7v6A/s998/Summer%20temperature%20during%20El%20Nino%20from%20BAM%20WX.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="998" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwcYRqWt0dhxZqLHGB791mksO-dD_Cdh1P9xOLSSfAsyDxyk8LrBu_kTOfQcMJ1WpM9jKtw-t2vbLKixwZ9pHr9EnzpDENnoSSnpGasGVlYpfIPT1FAzzpgi21fz8_uqUgKj2m7zE0RpXoIKg0OLzGtS0SDknlKOl-eWYxGtyGBoSh7JMfBX2O9g7v6A/s320/Summer%20temperature%20during%20El%20Nino%20from%20BAM%20WX.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7NoWu-60r2cCcWK8AqgvSLRNITcFHzJ2GW6P9VMCQYp0fjqez7PQfN26UC4J8V7avHGVsHGO2pn5879t9hdwEAmxaSLKt-PqHMGjTXC4X1Myz7-OQ7jj3wV6Y5mx1KD9lWy45tlEhJ6Cs25gDIsqkWh0DrVrBiw_TUu14j3beetv2pStYHIJzh25oAA/s879/Summer%20temperature%20during%20El%20Nino1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="879" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7NoWu-60r2cCcWK8AqgvSLRNITcFHzJ2GW6P9VMCQYp0fjqez7PQfN26UC4J8V7avHGVsHGO2pn5879t9hdwEAmxaSLKt-PqHMGjTXC4X1Myz7-OQ7jj3wV6Y5mx1KD9lWy45tlEhJ6Cs25gDIsqkWh0DrVrBiw_TUu14j3beetv2pStYHIJzh25oAA/s320/Summer%20temperature%20during%20El%20Nino1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIEYUrcEpGugskfUz76zlfrdmRuCFqjmtPlqNNQ9KlTM9jDxRCScprAG1nRsLHUprgdFDn8OjaQpQZIZD57n-QMEsUmuOPMYaMZRA0D3A3IFPFcquOozLAKDT71lRdZvagJqa40JWvYZHAhrflLjXgkcglCHQGVU6jIihzapqC-ng31As0znsid4W_Qw/s691/temp%20comp%20El%20Nino%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="691" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIEYUrcEpGugskfUz76zlfrdmRuCFqjmtPlqNNQ9KlTM9jDxRCScprAG1nRsLHUprgdFDn8OjaQpQZIZD57n-QMEsUmuOPMYaMZRA0D3A3IFPFcquOozLAKDT71lRdZvagJqa40JWvYZHAhrflLjXgkcglCHQGVU6jIihzapqC-ng31As0znsid4W_Qw/s320/temp%20comp%20El%20Nino%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio4HCH73ExnU1Pbd-6JFmpX6dX88Y7Ec4_A4gUPPyYGnaffov2dsfcsmDsizYzBzMyVB7bcnePQfOlnAYTCIKPHi020MdqcdxCRB1mCtnbzKG0xRcdmed1-oQbxzqmnpGTbW4yeIK02wiBzqOx6q8v8gz1ZM9TQzG3nA8G6BjLXGIwXuvauEfW92d2gw/s968/Summer%20Precipitation%20during%20El%20Nino%20from%20BAM%20WX.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="968" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio4HCH73ExnU1Pbd-6JFmpX6dX88Y7Ec4_A4gUPPyYGnaffov2dsfcsmDsizYzBzMyVB7bcnePQfOlnAYTCIKPHi020MdqcdxCRB1mCtnbzKG0xRcdmed1-oQbxzqmnpGTbW4yeIK02wiBzqOx6q8v8gz1ZM9TQzG3nA8G6BjLXGIwXuvauEfW92d2gw/s320/Summer%20Precipitation%20during%20El%20Nino%20from%20BAM%20WX.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBWDcXiyfxU6BS-LvH7o5nXPobhsdclvgsB31w-rvWFyOctF9IiQ_rL8ePLhM_h2yPaS2yGzhfQpmIOQGfXveGswRlDRh8NsIZoaNyUBY10VNgiV-9jSx0BUMujEJ4GxIYOF1Nd7Tg1Hrb4mVrSABZPudhEBz858d8kE6xQLVFZ9W5ePZeEWLk8gA4Bw/s869/Summer%20Precipitation%20during%20El%20Nino1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="789" data-original-width="869" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBWDcXiyfxU6BS-LvH7o5nXPobhsdclvgsB31w-rvWFyOctF9IiQ_rL8ePLhM_h2yPaS2yGzhfQpmIOQGfXveGswRlDRh8NsIZoaNyUBY10VNgiV-9jSx0BUMujEJ4GxIYOF1Nd7Tg1Hrb4mVrSABZPudhEBz858d8kE6xQLVFZ9W5ePZeEWLk8gA4Bw/s320/Summer%20Precipitation%20during%20El%20Nino1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; text-align: left;"> </span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Temperatures…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Those well
above average SST anomalies off the East Coast, should keep the Middle Atlantic
and Southern New England Closer to the Coast warmer than the interior parts of
the Northeast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The middle
Atlantic and southern New England should see overall temperatures averaging out
to average to slightly below average. While interior areas of northern New England, New York State and Pennsylvania end up with overall
temperatures averaging out slightly below average to below average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation…
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">While the
current soil moisture levels across the Middle Atlantic Region are quite low<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">With the
overall precipitation setup that looks to unfold starting on today the 29<sup>th</sup>
and going into next week, we should see at least a partial recovery of the
drought conditions over the Middle Atlantic into Southern New England for this
Summer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Palmer
Drought Severity Index<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9fP1JcvT0NXuGAdlZTGba_qiy73J13M2_E8vB0sD8oc7YA3kLX6y427FAUeYtzfuMkQEtK6Y5ArYo00fKVBda-SgWUW1PEc8u349mXHIa3GkOepAFDQG1cpSP-Aziz68o6rkpCsWMYezm7jRFmMrVjQLfjrLER4EuR2kfowu4XKsvBFOdX6hPSxOwSw/s550/Palmer%20Drought%20Severity%20Index%201963%20thru%202015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9fP1JcvT0NXuGAdlZTGba_qiy73J13M2_E8vB0sD8oc7YA3kLX6y427FAUeYtzfuMkQEtK6Y5ArYo00fKVBda-SgWUW1PEc8u349mXHIa3GkOepAFDQG1cpSP-Aziz68o6rkpCsWMYezm7jRFmMrVjQLfjrLER4EuR2kfowu4XKsvBFOdX6hPSxOwSw/s320/Palmer%20Drought%20Severity%20Index%201963%20thru%202015.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Precipitation
looks to be largely average to slightly above average across western and central New York State and western Pennsylvania, while northern and eastern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, New England and the Middle Atlantic end up averaging above
average to well above average.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This doesn't mean we won't see any really hot days this summer. It just means we should trend toward overall cooler temperatures over the three month period. The same goes for Precipitation, during El Nino the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region tend to see wetter summers. But that doesn't mean we won't see some dry stretches</span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px; line-height: 107%;">. This is all about climatical averages. <br /></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br />Well that's it. Hope you enjoyed reading this. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-21466070773754380462023-04-23T16:38:00.012-04:002023-05-25T14:34:14.534-04:00My 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Part Two <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Here is part
two of this year’s hurricane outlook. Part two will go more into the developing
El Nino, other major weather outlet forecast, the cone of uncertainty, and
other changes being implemented by the National Hurricane Center. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">Refer to part one for definitions and acronyms.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-2023-hurricane-season-outlook-part.html">Part One</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">My analogue
seasons…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">1957,1965,1972,1982,2002,2009,1997,
2015</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1957<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH6uRg55Q7j4tF0mMmjr72-7IIVjV23LNF-FnpXYfkIM_VGK4KRb8PjSaXC9JJwk21_lNf60mnRBrwpqvXLm-1Tp9qGni_sxJmKSrOIX94Ulw5XW-iVmalEOm_C5msxC1kpy2ownORFpFDtRLP1J8jCe_6JCStkfYLllfIBel7NMakyMtHr5uiWAMffg/s1920/1957_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1187" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH6uRg55Q7j4tF0mMmjr72-7IIVjV23LNF-FnpXYfkIM_VGK4KRb8PjSaXC9JJwk21_lNf60mnRBrwpqvXLm-1Tp9qGni_sxJmKSrOIX94Ulw5XW-iVmalEOm_C5msxC1kpy2ownORFpFDtRLP1J8jCe_6JCStkfYLllfIBel7NMakyMtHr5uiWAMffg/s320/1957_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1965<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0_YV1XYh5G1-o6VJFmwPcVBOaO0P6mabCIF_FybyyBNPmPJu3jBujaFy0foFDUJTrL49RIb7C7vfCIL7uX_KOto9d5EnPlwPSxZqVlUplpAeZaVAJg_6pSYKwqa11W30Ztiyu8_CLfMPmP6O4ciiFgtxrZrta-lSu1BX0JwDx2osGhYHEbSDw6YmeHA/s1920/1965_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0_YV1XYh5G1-o6VJFmwPcVBOaO0P6mabCIF_FybyyBNPmPJu3jBujaFy0foFDUJTrL49RIb7C7vfCIL7uX_KOto9d5EnPlwPSxZqVlUplpAeZaVAJg_6pSYKwqa11W30Ztiyu8_CLfMPmP6O4ciiFgtxrZrta-lSu1BX0JwDx2osGhYHEbSDw6YmeHA/s320/1965_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1972<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifPO7S0qo3fkuaynxJ5iZiJiexvv_rB48qqxWpLP52RU9U01tznziFJw90LfrN-AKTXFREZIDO9vkh7yWzAoc5FxnRdDPHxjSAJZBhOj1EylBWllIE2bwykG2q5ouK_J2MPRAQsjjqY_Bvtnqd4bhKWEGFK2mltv7TLtkcK_284kg-1qU_RMdyKqjYMg/s1920/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1212" data-original-width="1920" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifPO7S0qo3fkuaynxJ5iZiJiexvv_rB48qqxWpLP52RU9U01tznziFJw90LfrN-AKTXFREZIDO9vkh7yWzAoc5FxnRdDPHxjSAJZBhOj1EylBWllIE2bwykG2q5ouK_J2MPRAQsjjqY_Bvtnqd4bhKWEGFK2mltv7TLtkcK_284kg-1qU_RMdyKqjYMg/s320/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1982<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDJ40qTkgTocDZqPDaXZIsIx228vZw0TRvpP_aLmNsPEB5g4PwxqhkpV8Kt9N2SmQfqxN33RsSbwMXwHUWpAzyA6Ry-4C19URBcv5hYnVs6A63YNvSDd94JSK0Yhmfchb22ICSGugK98JChO5Q668MoawIQ79GKpSSW3kT39UCXm9qtn1BwII-wcKseA/s1920/1982_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDJ40qTkgTocDZqPDaXZIsIx228vZw0TRvpP_aLmNsPEB5g4PwxqhkpV8Kt9N2SmQfqxN33RsSbwMXwHUWpAzyA6Ry-4C19URBcv5hYnVs6A63YNvSDd94JSK0Yhmfchb22ICSGugK98JChO5Q668MoawIQ79GKpSSW3kT39UCXm9qtn1BwII-wcKseA/s320/1982_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1997<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZaPzg9eWWiPy5TfgvwPaM92JwWfjQ6RS_iKO18_3mE73lz2SQwTyXWdxkUtF97IlZT-0ILRT2re9SjQh_dov9vw1LLPu8CXBq-WKtfOj72HQc57vzapzCMI6r5KQpmwgCCy8OlWOoCv5cjkOGBHQOn1tcxTvjNR_FzvCmc-UnwfZSh1W-zhkJvb4fig/s1920/1920px-1997_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZaPzg9eWWiPy5TfgvwPaM92JwWfjQ6RS_iKO18_3mE73lz2SQwTyXWdxkUtF97IlZT-0ILRT2re9SjQh_dov9vw1LLPu8CXBq-WKtfOj72HQc57vzapzCMI6r5KQpmwgCCy8OlWOoCv5cjkOGBHQOn1tcxTvjNR_FzvCmc-UnwfZSh1W-zhkJvb4fig/s320/1920px-1997_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2002<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjMcdOfEd4YZdw_CXw1zryexFXLMw7bk1uDsKzbZDihnNVon7CRyWsd_G0GuivY5iW09xJattFHxwpbHDnovpwhBUgOFNgwBNWNc898LUNL_Jv0HfjWkcglzdSxtZxmCZmQ7Z69hsR_cdfk2iBanVPBVI1XFQxbpYtKmKPIkrPfyihnIYAzh1HsS0EQ/s1920/1920px-2002_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjMcdOfEd4YZdw_CXw1zryexFXLMw7bk1uDsKzbZDihnNVon7CRyWsd_G0GuivY5iW09xJattFHxwpbHDnovpwhBUgOFNgwBNWNc898LUNL_Jv0HfjWkcglzdSxtZxmCZmQ7Z69hsR_cdfk2iBanVPBVI1XFQxbpYtKmKPIkrPfyihnIYAzh1HsS0EQ/s320/1920px-2002_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2009<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFNsVRSJJf1ygzNtEgEAsKb6ukXu2yYgqnoboqoGJ-NOpVqOHjNVpKX-jaHVRGE0ipa1R6EwT_89XBOBqsxNnqKqQaTZZn2KkgQzrBxlVTtwgAhp5xsMbHHkv_QU_jtaqgFodjWXbB16skVtqYRpwyjLxjQ7wdkl5dKXiMvSwECjR7Lf74FbgrjHMKg/s1920/1920px-2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFNsVRSJJf1ygzNtEgEAsKb6ukXu2yYgqnoboqoGJ-NOpVqOHjNVpKX-jaHVRGE0ipa1R6EwT_89XBOBqsxNnqKqQaTZZn2KkgQzrBxlVTtwgAhp5xsMbHHkv_QU_jtaqgFodjWXbB16skVtqYRpwyjLxjQ7wdkl5dKXiMvSwECjR7Lf74FbgrjHMKg/s320/1920px-2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2015<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigy2P4Vi5-fzFB1sUr6haI7qx2ULEPyJfJJVaeGgnW77nSAk4RA1ZNduMFtk7RVe4psKY_c6OJ1VL46cfgKOPBgM-gLbPCPzj5SoH4RE2Nbzt9XiSRUIbWVRI_Jj-cWycLuVbo9VD3nq0vfgrhrDtZa4USH3lcRl5X8JpSho5QHReLb0mbO3d2Xq4jEw/s1920/1920px-2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="1920" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigy2P4Vi5-fzFB1sUr6haI7qx2ULEPyJfJJVaeGgnW77nSAk4RA1ZNduMFtk7RVe4psKY_c6OJ1VL46cfgKOPBgM-gLbPCPzj5SoH4RE2Nbzt9XiSRUIbWVRI_Jj-cWycLuVbo9VD3nq0vfgrhrDtZa4USH3lcRl5X8JpSho5QHReLb0mbO3d2Xq4jEw/s320/1920px-2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map%20a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Typically,
the <a name="_Hlk132921820">analogue</a>s saw generally 6-10 named storms with
very low seasonal ACE points. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is
something I will come back to. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST)…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDbjDvwdlnFxTuAzHc-i3Z6M0J4UwkuFcThqv0DFgHZ32PsaF0pqdan2oClEkgkGRcXiBrkM33sHNghN14X3b5EwxelXX6-AFDpRn7VKaIodxtB9LdocU6IDx0CCvWJXoRPWwfZarfY8XlNr39xTcTGjbU1idOwUKTBGd3pa0gGDyXSbWIQhND3e3wbg/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_global%20today_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDbjDvwdlnFxTuAzHc-i3Z6M0J4UwkuFcThqv0DFgHZ32PsaF0pqdan2oClEkgkGRcXiBrkM33sHNghN14X3b5EwxelXX6-AFDpRn7VKaIodxtB9LdocU6IDx0CCvWJXoRPWwfZarfY8XlNr39xTcTGjbU1idOwUKTBGd3pa0gGDyXSbWIQhND3e3wbg/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_global%20today_1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">ENSO</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Over the
last few weeks, upper ocean heat content has warmed rapidly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5s8Xd_umT0cdX9Sm40lJiNBjmq4oIwgv54M7ZJjRjtjM-e2lzs35Fg8OPxO-6gB7whMnXgKMgzESQZjrTQmeqJawsY6jHbO9AsXYrF1S1C2uaRuUORDFHqHcvQR3ETz3pDfIFY0xbdc0_TdzxFV4hxEzxEjE47nzN4v7Z2oVDQaloT1Tpnw5HyPxL8Q/s1157/4%20Nino%20regions%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1157" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5s8Xd_umT0cdX9Sm40lJiNBjmq4oIwgv54M7ZJjRjtjM-e2lzs35Fg8OPxO-6gB7whMnXgKMgzESQZjrTQmeqJawsY6jHbO9AsXYrF1S1C2uaRuUORDFHqHcvQR3ETz3pDfIFY0xbdc0_TdzxFV4hxEzxEjE47nzN4v7Z2oVDQaloT1Tpnw5HyPxL8Q/s320/4%20Nino%20regions%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">SSTs are
above average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with SSTs in the central
equatorial Pacific are near average.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
look at Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4 SST anomalies<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj__atgmeZX7DjYg2c1Umjk0063hBKWqqyUZBPATqBkHgmk-QTH7ege16ryKKyjBgNs6sGYcOSdtmV0kwkR_maQ4XaWSdumz2RtX43Dv2wI0-QVkfec30TDBhMPFW2x9JuVQolfO9YQj4ZZzoPdEEHtNZgcuK4guANNqOsCBBFAIXxejxqxdAmSGvsiw/s854/ENSO%20SST%20Anomalies.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="671" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj__atgmeZX7DjYg2c1Umjk0063hBKWqqyUZBPATqBkHgmk-QTH7ege16ryKKyjBgNs6sGYcOSdtmV0kwkR_maQ4XaWSdumz2RtX43Dv2wI0-QVkfec30TDBhMPFW2x9JuVQolfO9YQj4ZZzoPdEEHtNZgcuK4guANNqOsCBBFAIXxejxqxdAmSGvsiw/s320/ENSO%20SST%20Anomalies.jpg" width="251" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The latest
weekly <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">SST
departures are:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Nino 4 0.2ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Nino 3.4
0.1ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Nino 3 0.4ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Nino 1+2
2.7ºC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjhTR0m4ZgcDjYTOljSyB2cZpZmusg-fiO-jfuwvOsevwwe8dAS4CSAAmTlOqiKiIURuVtcgesXsStgnHQdP5zz4VVh8eCR9vKNW_bFzxBfAY4vNBoILhvKy7ScbZJ_OpZIYMY50j5MRIGX48JvTEPAw5ChhwyUXJbKVzCfp7OxqxbN7s4jlbYcytHCg/s821/ENSO%20subtropical%20SST%20Anomalies%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="645" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjhTR0m4ZgcDjYTOljSyB2cZpZmusg-fiO-jfuwvOsevwwe8dAS4CSAAmTlOqiKiIURuVtcgesXsStgnHQdP5zz4VVh8eCR9vKNW_bFzxBfAY4vNBoILhvKy7ScbZJ_OpZIYMY50j5MRIGX48JvTEPAw5ChhwyUXJbKVzCfp7OxqxbN7s4jlbYcytHCg/s320/ENSO%20subtropical%20SST%20Anomalies%202.jpg" width="251" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvKeUghJPecJymneFqhZTxetoVBr00A7eW-kHowWOXjJaej9b4vCNF4tHDoHrhfzHQIP-DWrhti3c-FA4pUnZKYrphr5EyPfo0jP5vC8ETgayltYMcQMeqMeg3DLEd75W2lWcpxdyC7bMHbE2L8HaRl8v6WZ5cbB85dVC3yv7h4U_4MHxZofBCKViCew/s895/ENSO%20subtropical%20SST%20Anomalies%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="895" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvKeUghJPecJymneFqhZTxetoVBr00A7eW-kHowWOXjJaej9b4vCNF4tHDoHrhfzHQIP-DWrhti3c-FA4pUnZKYrphr5EyPfo0jP5vC8ETgayltYMcQMeqMeg3DLEd75W2lWcpxdyC7bMHbE2L8HaRl8v6WZ5cbB85dVC3yv7h4U_4MHxZofBCKViCew/s320/ENSO%20subtropical%20SST%20Anomalies%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are now dominated
by positive temperature anomalies. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Climate prediction
Center /NCEP has issued an El Nino Watch<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">In part one
I said the coming El Nino should be moderate to strong. Looking at the current
SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific, we can see conflicting signals. Spring is a
difficult time to forecast the ENSO, for this reason it is labeled the Spring Predictability
barrier </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We do have a
warm blob in the western North Pacific. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">With SST
just off the West Coast of North America are cooler than average.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkaQdFtLDu0LFTzr8ThIkVlF6vMEgWGA-GUoG2dWhRn4LNUNXc5MwW8PIt16t8exB9ZBxNxTk2zfXWxUr5001kK3r98Y_YNVJtKlkWBPVmO9xq54WrX4HVQqFIaRbzTOVpD9KNoueOaJYuOdB-puH5V8bsoipQ2WkgToQQigdaEUo9yyITZtTZLiwQBw/s1279/Ocean%20Currents%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1279" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkaQdFtLDu0LFTzr8ThIkVlF6vMEgWGA-GUoG2dWhRn4LNUNXc5MwW8PIt16t8exB9ZBxNxTk2zfXWxUr5001kK3r98Y_YNVJtKlkWBPVmO9xq54WrX4HVQqFIaRbzTOVpD9KNoueOaJYuOdB-puH5V8bsoipQ2WkgToQQigdaEUo9yyITZtTZLiwQBw/s320/Ocean%20Currents%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Currently
our developing El Nino and the PDO are at odds with each other. When we look at
the Ocean Current chart, we can see how the current off the Western North
American Coast travel south where they mingle with the current in the
Equatorial Pacific. As a result, as the two current compete, we have El Nino
conditions in Nino 1+2, with neutral ENSO conditions in Nino 3.4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) index numbers. Negative numbers tilt
toward El Nino which creates weaker trade winds over the Pacific. When the
numbers are positive, they tilt toward La Nina which creates stronger trade
winds over the Pacific.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfznrDFkNdla5Ek_luHbpvQ_x_U4h75jmg3y-VIapwusEPfp1vD-vch2LMnlOJukz-kQiIQQzoFWEKOoqY2H6AocCZOHJxdllL9JNaOzWA1BuSp-dfKcBVmuOOYIwcUtNBuQ99QrEMM9MSK2_THYzUBVuuBiF_fCwnSshUZfX3wg78YY9SrtSWUpNRJQ/s1024/soi%20numbers.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="846" data-original-width="1024" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfznrDFkNdla5Ek_luHbpvQ_x_U4h75jmg3y-VIapwusEPfp1vD-vch2LMnlOJukz-kQiIQQzoFWEKOoqY2H6AocCZOHJxdllL9JNaOzWA1BuSp-dfKcBVmuOOYIwcUtNBuQ99QrEMM9MSK2_THYzUBVuuBiF_fCwnSshUZfX3wg78YY9SrtSWUpNRJQ/s320/soi%20numbers.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Trade wind
anomalies over the next month over the Nino 3.4 region. The blues and greens
indicate strong trade winds. The yellows and oranges indicate weaker trade
winds. The chart shows trade winds will be generally average, with a burst of
stronger winds. We need weaker trade winds if we want to see those warm
subsurface waters to make their way to the surface in a big way. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAOjKQRcil862Ji4Ph-UIiI5acFH08Z2xFt22H6W9li4uV2FLGMI1ujpnm9xyyo3VTZgRzWSZkluaA3N0-CZ8uz4ktDxzC053QPqsg9AIInYYq46CGPt9o021q_STdW1kZWO9fN5Zsf3DM3rdySlzPRmHm6GUapY1dDTwDlgxjzyvI01Of0oJhuK4qKg/s1073/graph%20of%20trade%20wind%20anomalies%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1073" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAOjKQRcil862Ji4Ph-UIiI5acFH08Z2xFt22H6W9li4uV2FLGMI1ujpnm9xyyo3VTZgRzWSZkluaA3N0-CZ8uz4ktDxzC053QPqsg9AIInYYq46CGPt9o021q_STdW1kZWO9fN5Zsf3DM3rdySlzPRmHm6GUapY1dDTwDlgxjzyvI01Of0oJhuK4qKg/s320/graph%20of%20trade%20wind%20anomalies%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, we’re
likely to experience El Nino this Summer. But the question still remains on how
strong the El Nino will be. The strength of the La Nina will determine how much
sinking air we see over the Atlantic Basin this hurricane season.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a graphic that shows the typical areas of rising and sinking air during El Nino. Sinking air is very hostile when it comes to tropical cyclone formation. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVopvJESnKVDazgw2oc8pSGj1AbFOSNc2BLe3JiLDS1nPEi4tu3_4BzYn9tl4Z7HauLr_5Ggl4BgQInQZ6vNJ7fJ2MEyAOVoBHMr9dt27oyIKUqtpCSYpGNh_Mg7FOFPPlpwxZfRa5vDsZRclyP6MMSNqJ8GXaTTPCZTTIL1jDW0pCs5HuMsln5c-_kw/s1311/El%20Nino%20sinking%20air%20in%20Atlantic%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1311" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVopvJESnKVDazgw2oc8pSGj1AbFOSNc2BLe3JiLDS1nPEi4tu3_4BzYn9tl4Z7HauLr_5Ggl4BgQInQZ6vNJ7fJ2MEyAOVoBHMr9dt27oyIKUqtpCSYpGNh_Mg7FOFPPlpwxZfRa5vDsZRclyP6MMSNqJ8GXaTTPCZTTIL1jDW0pCs5HuMsln5c-_kw/s320/El%20Nino%20sinking%20air%20in%20Atlantic%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Some of the models, like the Euro do show a Super El Nino developing. But most show moderately strong to strong.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqDtDwCbArajkLRQXvk-ItOzrmy_qt4z_MmOkJqWg8tTbmSJKWlvSR3iCoCOke-AD8DtSYssd6VuATH121fLNVeIaJuwXIoYNdZ5_lvcyR1cWrY5lqcmfjlfSn8gYMK-QgaQ3LjXPAsUuq_dTerxT0WNH9uwBmHT8VaZLXV7qMtPJHrYfUQqiXh2PSZg/s885/Euro%20model%20El%20Nino%20forecast%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="885" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqDtDwCbArajkLRQXvk-ItOzrmy_qt4z_MmOkJqWg8tTbmSJKWlvSR3iCoCOke-AD8DtSYssd6VuATH121fLNVeIaJuwXIoYNdZ5_lvcyR1cWrY5lqcmfjlfSn8gYMK-QgaQ3LjXPAsUuq_dTerxT0WNH9uwBmHT8VaZLXV7qMtPJHrYfUQqiXh2PSZg/s320/Euro%20model%20El%20Nino%20forecast%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1vwAKFmLDMDnik6hT2fCJ3zy5NCvgllu2CC_aNHe6Y1yFq9P0NvKP2ShqBJXkKmgRm4mUgUegen1_Hddk4NXFM1ZbWt0YGH9lknGbe4aOWo7n_VL3wxxmDsnGaL0qjIOxRHwI5rG4N6yMNF86T8-gl2C1PTHGg2JDSetfO5f3mJYDlHHhtD1TcVxhA/s891/IRI%20model%20El%20Nino%20forecast%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="891" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1vwAKFmLDMDnik6hT2fCJ3zy5NCvgllu2CC_aNHe6Y1yFq9P0NvKP2ShqBJXkKmgRm4mUgUegen1_Hddk4NXFM1ZbWt0YGH9lknGbe4aOWo7n_VL3wxxmDsnGaL0qjIOxRHwI5rG4N6yMNF86T8-gl2C1PTHGg2JDSetfO5f3mJYDlHHhtD1TcVxhA/s320/IRI%20model%20El%20Nino%20forecast%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Atlantic
Basin</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">SSTs are
well above average in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. SST are
also well above average off the East Coast in the Western Atlantic and the Gulf
of Mexico. The SST are 10 degrees above average in parts of the Gulf of Mexico
and near average in the Caribbean. With the MJO rotating through the favorable phases 8 and 1 along with those very warm SST in the Gulf. I wouldn't be surprised if something tropical spins up in the Gulf before the official start of the hurricane season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Five of the
analogue years were strong El Nino’s with two of the analogues being fairly strong
moderate seasons. But all of those years typically saw cooler SST in the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">But
when we look back at the SST chart, we can see this year the SST in the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic are abnormally warm. This is another conflicting
signal for the number of possible named storms in the Atlantic this hurricane
season. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Other
Outlets hurricane outlook forecast...</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Colorado
State University (CSU) is predicting that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
will be slightly below average with 13 named storms, 6 of them becoming hurricanes,
with 2 of those becoming major hurricanes. CSU is also calling for an ACE of
100.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Accuweather’s
outlook shows that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11
to 15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach
hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major
hurricane status.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">WeatherBELL Analytics
outlook is showing 10-14 named storms, with 5-7 hurricanes, 2-3 major
hurricanes, with a seasonal ACE of 70-110. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk133155283"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Cone of Uncertainty</span></b></a><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The cone of
uncertainty is the projected track of the center and intensity of a tropical
storm or hurricane. The cone is issued by the National Hurricane Center. The
cone, is a series of imaginary circles placed along the future forecast track
at 12,24,36 hours, etc. The size of each circle is set so that two thirds of
the official forecast track errors over the previous five years falls within
the circles. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The size of
each circle grows larger with every 12- or 24-hour forecast interval because
forecast errors in the position of a tropical cyclone’s center increase with
time. This is why the cone of uncertainty, made up of those invisible circles,
grows wider as the forecast goes farther into the future.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhClYRGp7CbeRq7gHndtQbbUUfvZBtbC40Pvg1xbkodWsVhH8UKDzmzvlmAdb05hfoJJ3EK94mroXwLLkOwttq8Ik7KbMMhihiKV2pz2cG5xatBBB501buHWJSN5GjdHtJKTGJqjByskI2biK1Uqm719eCQ0zhjxSltWjEd7TRnca6WdrJxN_z_rL7b_Q/s980/circles_cone.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="980" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhClYRGp7CbeRq7gHndtQbbUUfvZBtbC40Pvg1xbkodWsVhH8UKDzmzvlmAdb05hfoJJ3EK94mroXwLLkOwttq8Ik7KbMMhihiKV2pz2cG5xatBBB501buHWJSN5GjdHtJKTGJqjByskI2biK1Uqm719eCQ0zhjxSltWjEd7TRnca6WdrJxN_z_rL7b_Q/s320/circles_cone.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Before 2003
the cone of uncertainty only went out three days. But in 2003 the cone was extended
out to five days. Forecast error has generally decreased for the last 10 years,
due to improved model performance and better satellite data. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over the last several years the cone of
uncertainty has been two and five days. But with the increased confidence in
the models and satellite data; starting this year the cone of uncertainty will
now be two days and seven days. Due to the added length of time, the area
showing where the storm may form on the map could show up larger than in the
past.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">This brings
me to an important point. Many people get confused when they look at the cone
of uncertainty; they focus on the cones center line, instead of the entire breadth
of the cone. We saw this with disastrous and deadly consequences with Hurricane
Ian last year. I really would like to see the NHC not show the skinny line at
the center on any of their maps; I think it would make people pay more
attention. We have to remember that tropical cyclones stray outside the cone roughly
one third of the time</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What the cone doesn't communicate are critical factors such as storm size, intensity, hazards or potential impact..</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Other big
changes the NHC is making in 2023…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NHC will
be adding Invest Numbers to this season’s outlooks. If you followed my tropical
post, you have seen me, use Invest (I) 90 to 99, followed by a suffix letter
"L". The L signifies the Atlantic Basin. Invest is used to indicate
an area of interest that could develop into a tropical cyclone. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think including the Invest numbers will make
it easier for the general public to understand tropical forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For the last
two years, the NHC has used experimental peak storm surge graphics. Starting this
season, the NHC will make the peak storm surge graphic operational. Since storm
surge is the number on killer when it comes to landfalling hurricanes. This
will hopefully make the danger more identifiable and reduce the number of fatalities
caused by storm surge. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NHC will
also remove land based tropical cyclone watches and warnings from the tropical
cyclone forecast advisory. But they will continue to issue the watches and
warnings in the public advisory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Summary… <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">During El
Nino there is a tendency for tropical cyclones not forming in Caribbean due to
high shear in that part of the Atlantic Basin. If we look back at the analogue season
graphics, we see most of these years saw no tropical cyclone activity in the
Caribbean, with 2002 being the only outlier with two tropical cyclones that
track through the Caribbean. So based on those analogues this year should see
well below average activity in the Caribbean. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0F8x7EQoFlAA4E5421aFpfXrx80_rkqK9pr_ptscscO0j0vrm5kAH40AXRo3PjmLySYp0adM_xMrXIhEdB8hi2xNsldNdjriANJzz3cZrQLC_Pu63bWziZ3wfKSMAKHLUq1jb_38E9K5XypsuqNm-RWKKvZqwNMEOX8zTmEfcFBlsO3iIbIGggxdLQ/s825/possible%20storm%20tracks%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="825" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0F8x7EQoFlAA4E5421aFpfXrx80_rkqK9pr_ptscscO0j0vrm5kAH40AXRo3PjmLySYp0adM_xMrXIhEdB8hi2xNsldNdjriANJzz3cZrQLC_Pu63bWziZ3wfKSMAKHLUq1jb_38E9K5XypsuqNm-RWKKvZqwNMEOX8zTmEfcFBlsO3iIbIGggxdLQ/s320/possible%20storm%20tracks%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Also,
typically we see weaker than average wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico and off
the East Coast in the Western Atlantic, for this reason tropical cyclone tracks
could stay north of the Caribbean and form in the southern Gulf. The setup hints that there could be a lot of activity off the East Coast. We also should see above average activity out in the middle with the fishes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We do look
to see a fairly strong moderate to strong El Nino develop by the heart of the
hurricane season So this will likely tamper down the number of tropical
cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. This is what the Analogues do indicate. But due to the fact that the SST anomalies in parts of
the Atlantic Basin are generally warmer than they typically are during an El
Nino; is the reason I’m calling for slightly higher numbers of Tropical
Cyclones to develop this season. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Pre season tropical activity is very likely in May in the Gulf of Mexico.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">For now, I’m
staying with my thought that this will be slightly below average to average season,
with 10 to 14 named storms 4-7 hurricanes and 1 -2 major hurricanes.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The Seasonal ACE looks to be 60-90.</span></div><span style="line-height: 107%;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><br /></span></div>
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I released
part one before the other outlets released their preliminary 2023 hurricane
outlooks. So, seeing that they look similar to my numbers is making me more comfortable
with my ideas.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Link for <a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-part.html" target="_blank">part 3 </a></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-26036867625863065642023-03-31T23:45:00.008-04:002023-04-01T08:54:28.598-04:00The March 24th to March 27th, 2023 tornado outbreak. <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The event
was well telegraphed. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) started talking about
the potential for organized severe weather across the Southern Plains on March
18<sup>th</sup>. When the system came ashore in California it brought heavy
winds and flooding rainfall. As the system moved from the West Coast, the SPC
kept discussing the potential and issuing additional risk areas where highlighted.
By March 23, the SPC issued a Slight Risk for severe weather from Texas northeastward
into Missouri, primarily for the threat of large hail. Scattered reports of
large hail and damaging wind gusts were received from Texas across into the
Mid-Atlantic states. As things progressed two EF1 tornadoes occurred in Parker
County, Texas, during the morning hours of March 24. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As the day
went on, a deadly severe weather and tornado outbreak began affecting portions
of the lower Mississippi River Valley in the United States. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
atmospheric setup:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A deepening trough
was quickly moving eastward. We had a strong area of high pressure sitting over
the Southeast CONUS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Out ahead of the deepening
low pressure a warm front was dragging a warm moist airmass air mass from the
Gulf of Mexico. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A strong jet stream
aloft and strong mid-level winds created an unstable air mass over Louisiana, Arkansas,
Tennessee and Mississippi; where surface temperatures were into the 80's °F
with dewpoints in the upper 60's into the70's. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This set the stage for widespread heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0uFZr4qtwLb88mBOxArYRkaaJdSWvQ_bhCDgoRwyyPh1rS4Zi3zf58iWRQRbpvrWWA89A2JnSD3CDWDxb7dbnPUEbCgIuNB0VDPGeSlIurAUOYRYvWFe-yGbsj7tQblfxdWk9hGBhxNw45NwruTRFLmVSDeL-tje75jnzsJvZluNoln8bXFxZKGe7tQ/s1386/tornado%20outbreak%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="1386" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0uFZr4qtwLb88mBOxArYRkaaJdSWvQ_bhCDgoRwyyPh1rS4Zi3zf58iWRQRbpvrWWA89A2JnSD3CDWDxb7dbnPUEbCgIuNB0VDPGeSlIurAUOYRYvWFe-yGbsj7tQblfxdWk9hGBhxNw45NwruTRFLmVSDeL-tje75jnzsJvZluNoln8bXFxZKGe7tQ/s320/tornado%20outbreak%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Earlier in
the day, there was dry air near the ground, with a warmer layer around 15,000
feet creating a weak to moderate atmospheric cap. This hindered strong supercells and
tornadoes from developing. However, over the next few hours, the environment chanced
very quickly across the Mississippi Valley. The winds ahead of the front were out
of the South bringing in all that warm air closer to the surface, at the same
time the jet was dropping in from the west, providing a west wind aloft. Ahead
of the advancing trough, out in the warm sector, a few squall lines began
developing farther south, particularly along north to south oriented prefrontal
confluence bands. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These bands have to do
with the prefrontal tough ahead of the cold front where wind flows inward parallel
to the general flow and leads to a wind shift. The shifting winds allowed the
storms to start spinning. A tornado watch was issued shortly thereafter at 5:15
p.m. CDT for portions of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, central and
northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeiJKHw4uciHdqDgU4Fn5YxLxuARTINuZCxMycdMw3o7Xu6hkdV4xOUtZKl4a8TfVQGbpipwSnXfmNOGKAq9-K2mdEGC07wqMQDsBGlv60AeP-a9_1BpySV9geMmCsbqjRtbfWV9D4ksk2gV6JeJTfi4MiN7QhDXrwL_JoAz1LVRlQwIsioK8LlXmGPg/s1340/severe%20forecasting%20tip%20sheet%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1340" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeiJKHw4uciHdqDgU4Fn5YxLxuARTINuZCxMycdMw3o7Xu6hkdV4xOUtZKl4a8TfVQGbpipwSnXfmNOGKAq9-K2mdEGC07wqMQDsBGlv60AeP-a9_1BpySV9geMmCsbqjRtbfWV9D4ksk2gV6JeJTfi4MiN7QhDXrwL_JoAz1LVRlQwIsioK8LlXmGPg/s320/severe%20forecasting%20tip%20sheet%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAxz7NOZ2ErlyPfpFLilmWlNG6B75rFNHK3dFTlhZAOPSPAygxSFiNetgRfiQhUCVQACY7gJzhcFZIXfjrggmwfPjpHOkzInd3JXiFeiTdoUr6XIu__t-wrtF57lMYH5QuqJOr_AFhElGuPQ6D-BJfp6nlr8b4jbob5JTdO68z6iz3-C2pWUVT_vTXIQ/s1339/severe%20forecasting%20tip%20sheet%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1339" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAxz7NOZ2ErlyPfpFLilmWlNG6B75rFNHK3dFTlhZAOPSPAygxSFiNetgRfiQhUCVQACY7gJzhcFZIXfjrggmwfPjpHOkzInd3JXiFeiTdoUr6XIu__t-wrtF57lMYH5QuqJOr_AFhElGuPQ6D-BJfp6nlr8b4jbob5JTdO68z6iz3-C2pWUVT_vTXIQ/s320/severe%20forecasting%20tip%20sheet%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib-Chx92nRVX_tRhIePR6bGfm5lCcyY3jynqLbXb11fQY4nExnk50kHgnbPqyAYQ1Owsbdeaoj56ZFGUr0iUW4ExgA5sAabM4198c6KGtFgqpFfNDXKFNCi_t-Q9NRUgiZEhpU51Jz4dKkIwLgSHcAS1SD8mMsZDtmaHyjyr3LCAr03vyunhD8m_5ytA/s1180/Sounding%201a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1180" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib-Chx92nRVX_tRhIePR6bGfm5lCcyY3jynqLbXb11fQY4nExnk50kHgnbPqyAYQ1Owsbdeaoj56ZFGUr0iUW4ExgA5sAabM4198c6KGtFgqpFfNDXKFNCi_t-Q9NRUgiZEhpU51Jz4dKkIwLgSHcAS1SD8mMsZDtmaHyjyr3LCAr03vyunhD8m_5ytA/s320/Sounding%201a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">At 1:00 PM<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">When temperature gets warmer and the dew point get drier you
get a mix layer cap. The Cap is weak, but just enough to slow down thunderstorm
development. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Looking at the severe indices. To save me a lot of typing
you can refer to the severe weather forecasting tip sheets to see what the
sounding is showing. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">3cap is 40 Jkg <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Mixed layer cape 568<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Holograph shows a very unorganized wind field. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 1km is 61<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 3 km is 141<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">6km Shear is 40<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">BRN is 56<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">STP both of them are 0.2, A majority of significant
tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater
than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with vales less
than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Supercell parameters are 3<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">The entire sounding shows the atmosphere is unsupportive for
Supercells and tornadoes. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVOsczrnqxY2kX-OaeGaNNSgSoBA3ft6bk9LROrKCS1e8DAYYrCUR1PCFJ8ULuwPHVqmkjqlj4B0rFCWNktBefTFMgKJigOLzee8kyi0mvywY00sHazJmcRPgjfS8NCR_UXkS5aigvEK9Z1eGbJ4Orm4Tl_Pa3R7Rl2UygPcNaen7KmT1aHupYWF62tQ/s1180/sounding%202b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1180" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVOsczrnqxY2kX-OaeGaNNSgSoBA3ft6bk9LROrKCS1e8DAYYrCUR1PCFJ8ULuwPHVqmkjqlj4B0rFCWNktBefTFMgKJigOLzee8kyi0mvywY00sHazJmcRPgjfS8NCR_UXkS5aigvEK9Z1eGbJ4Orm4Tl_Pa3R7Rl2UygPcNaen7KmT1aHupYWF62tQ/s320/sounding%202b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">At 7:00 pm<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">The Cap is still there but it is breaking down.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Looking at the severe indices. To save me a lot of typing
you can refer to the severe weather forecasting tip sheets to see what the
sounding is showing. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">3cap is 18 Jkg<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Mixed layer cape 995 <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Holograph shows more in the way of an organized wind field,
with much better inflow. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 1km is 172<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 3 km is 345<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">6km Shear is 58<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">BRN is 118<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">STP is 2.1 and 1.4, A majority of significant tornadoes (F2
or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while
most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with vales less than 1 in a
large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Supercell parameters are 8.8<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">The entire sounding shows the atmosphere is supportive for
Supercells and a chance for short track tornadoes.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaqugzVnWR4HwATUHDVtBOHbIAe89ppO6SyXaPIMJqrctqJG-GJcam8HcIlScXdEzZ_FG7wl4zDqc1qdSKzEnw2XLE70qGkh_6VuBsLeEIRSeoQVzW3oxYUW9cnkj8n-iwWzJ_beR0oxlB4tey71rMn3Dz6wDxc6_hWiMHfsFQrjS9VfWT7Ag0BsYRWA/s1180/sounding%203c.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1180" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaqugzVnWR4HwATUHDVtBOHbIAe89ppO6SyXaPIMJqrctqJG-GJcam8HcIlScXdEzZ_FG7wl4zDqc1qdSKzEnw2XLE70qGkh_6VuBsLeEIRSeoQVzW3oxYUW9cnkj8n-iwWzJ_beR0oxlB4tey71rMn3Dz6wDxc6_hWiMHfsFQrjS9VfWT7Ag0BsYRWA/s320/sounding%203c.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">At 10:00 pm<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">The Cap is gone, allowing thunderstorms to explode. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Looking at the severe indices. To save me a lot of typing
you can refer to the severe weather forecasting tip sheets to see what the
sounding is showing. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">3cap is 91 Jkg<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Mixed layer cape 1642 <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Holograph shows the wind field increasing quickly, with a
lot of inflow and a lot of spin with height. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 1km is 319<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">SFC 3 km is 384<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">6km Shear is 56<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">BRN is 115<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">STP is 3.8 and 3.1, A majority of significant tornadoes (F2
or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while
most nontornadic supercells have been associated with vales less than 1 in a
large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Supercell parameters are 12.9<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">The entire sounding shows the atmosphere is very supportive
for Supercells and strong to violent long track tornadoes.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This
increased forcing that allowed the squall lines to strengthen with discrete
supercells forming out ahead of the squall line. Discrete Supercells form on
their own ahead of a squall line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because
of this they don’t have to compete with other storms or the squall line for
energy. This makes these kinds of supercells very dangerous as they are capable of becoming very strong and have much better odds of producing strong violent
tornadoes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As we got into the evening a strengthening
nighttime low-level jet and rising levels of surface moisture led to the
development of a substantial supercell across western Mississippi. As the
supercell approached the Mississippi River, a tornado started to develop. The
NWS issued its first tornado warning around 20 minutes before the storm reached
Rolling Fork. Then before 8 p.m., the supercell produced a tornado, the tornado
started as a small cone, this intensified rapidly and soon became violent. The
National Weather Service issued a rare tornado emergency warning</span> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">for Rolling Fork and Anguilla,
Mississippi. As the significant tornado was heading straight for them. Then at
around 8:05 p.m. the tornado struck Rolling Fork, the tornado continued to stay
strong to violent as it moved through Midnight and Silver City all in
Mississippi.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Tornadoes:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Enhanced
Fujita Scale (EF Scale) classifies tornadoes based on the amount and type of
damage caused by the tornado<a name="_Hlk131111386">. It is broken down into
the following categories:</a> EF0...Weak.....65 to 85 mph, EF1...Weak.....86
to 110 mph, EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph, EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph, EF4...Violent...166
to 200 mph, EF5...<a name="_Hlk131170357">Violent</a>...>200 mph<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Fujita
Scale (F-scale) was replaced by the EF Scale in February 2007. The F Scale is
broken down into the following categories: F0 – Light Damage (40 – 72 mph), F1
– Moderate Damage (73 – 112 mph), F2 – Significant damage (113 – 157 mph), F3 –
Severe Damage (158 – 206 mph), F4 – Devastating Damage (207 – 260 mph), F5 –
Incredible Damage (261 – 318 mph). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The National
Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi surveyed the damage and said, the <a name="_Hlk131116923">Rolling Fork, Midnight and Silver City tornado was an EF4 </a>with
peak winds of 170 mph, a path width of ¾ of a mile, with a track length of 59.4
miles. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This EF4 caused incredible
damage. The same super cell produced two subsequent long track tornadoes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivcE__AeMp0Iyi0PTNOAglZZ01yZfrDK15JIKDNo_vbAkN8XIqxVcyxniEGU6pVEFjgm4nn5WlM83sZCiw-CcF2TsTxFs_tg51u-lIXlOtP0WESkzWwEOAH7q9tYmIi-l6uC6fIbbvPEoMX5hQa9wt9CJPiBVon5tK-otBPtwQ_6OpK50UfYYyJuuLOA/s716/tornado%200.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="388" data-original-width="716" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivcE__AeMp0Iyi0PTNOAglZZ01yZfrDK15JIKDNo_vbAkN8XIqxVcyxniEGU6pVEFjgm4nn5WlM83sZCiw-CcF2TsTxFs_tg51u-lIXlOtP0WESkzWwEOAH7q9tYmIi-l6uC6fIbbvPEoMX5hQa9wt9CJPiBVon5tK-otBPtwQ_6OpK50UfYYyJuuLOA/s320/tornado%200.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpDgVlGh69CeSCc1XkEscIGg5Nn444NdAB3sYTmMpxqGf1UlizGKYR3ZHpHPNoa5hbMoo1Jd1EhO8_ee_7gMYmzqD-NbnhHD0OFxr6D5s4HqKFdIvxtgqAMpSFG9zU9lqpQbKPE1l7hnmt4BHHfngQOuY8RxCRKLcxZQRLn1mQN824e1iYx2AlUXMUoQ/s1151/tornado%200b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1151" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpDgVlGh69CeSCc1XkEscIGg5Nn444NdAB3sYTmMpxqGf1UlizGKYR3ZHpHPNoa5hbMoo1Jd1EhO8_ee_7gMYmzqD-NbnhHD0OFxr6D5s4HqKFdIvxtgqAMpSFG9zU9lqpQbKPE1l7hnmt4BHHfngQOuY8RxCRKLcxZQRLn1mQN824e1iYx2AlUXMUoQ/s320/tornado%200b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJcO2nGzwaRWHdy-BRS-FfbWCkp5Upg92ya8gevOJh8RCBMTF6gn701_p4yb1pptQPtQ3uEiPGTbXvnkicemQ6L-iL7O2CjT-tpYoNOCR-suX-V-Jm5qkeyXFAdOxjbJh4vvFPHoGcUGVQvMGy_e5-S_iUpapVzWkClDZ_U_1yj74qeW79Y_9CePHP0A/s792/tornado%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="792" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJcO2nGzwaRWHdy-BRS-FfbWCkp5Upg92ya8gevOJh8RCBMTF6gn701_p4yb1pptQPtQ3uEiPGTbXvnkicemQ6L-iL7O2CjT-tpYoNOCR-suX-V-Jm5qkeyXFAdOxjbJh4vvFPHoGcUGVQvMGy_e5-S_iUpapVzWkClDZ_U_1yj74qeW79Y_9CePHP0A/s320/tornado%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNWrj0NSbr4GzMqW9wLuIbeQy7k769ErHAweO-FLG-LLWIc_tSgmdECwfbIR2Yi5JBWdHLArzK_rghXD-o-3tqntW-5mNjpTgNAYlIJXYGLParpfRy9cERa1zWMRwSJp62tsa0j45U9Fi9-FSPyRKO2GSMPSwTqOvggmKpgRGOlLdENqoAD4xlsCWC1w/s840/tornado%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="840" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNWrj0NSbr4GzMqW9wLuIbeQy7k769ErHAweO-FLG-LLWIc_tSgmdECwfbIR2Yi5JBWdHLArzK_rghXD-o-3tqntW-5mNjpTgNAYlIJXYGLParpfRy9cERa1zWMRwSJp62tsa0j45U9Fi9-FSPyRKO2GSMPSwTqOvggmKpgRGOlLdENqoAD4xlsCWC1w/s320/tornado%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxXnOPbJiSoAOKDW4e4sj6XkFP5LqFNdThu0onp0QZhVunPUa9COjvFXKwtk_wdwIcmTZ35UOpD4tiuqlutLMBW5t7Ks7wmq4zp9_4oB_5Hl63ARW6AG39Sh6MA4ZPWtgZGnx3Z6O0pGwNN_ZlA9GCPpL7OT4-7URf6bCr4I_niVWta5kZmDQlKzJ2wg/s801/tornado%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="801" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxXnOPbJiSoAOKDW4e4sj6XkFP5LqFNdThu0onp0QZhVunPUa9COjvFXKwtk_wdwIcmTZ35UOpD4tiuqlutLMBW5t7Ks7wmq4zp9_4oB_5Hl63ARW6AG39Sh6MA4ZPWtgZGnx3Z6O0pGwNN_ZlA9GCPpL7OT4-7URf6bCr4I_niVWta5kZmDQlKzJ2wg/s320/tornado%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLjDH6RQ3jDCioueXUxfLdCTmUdIPybufkfwDh0qegxmSfP3PtutX_bbfDbExf76yv3zizethlNdSA9gCNRjK9wbB7SUAaLFtCz_gKBXW8kOUxC74U9Dg2mT8A7-vzgfWO8gb2u3K6-mxy4S4co7xcQS41pscpJZsMGFynR2XMDU2rTThwepnhyVQ8Fw/s874/tornado%204.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="874" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLjDH6RQ3jDCioueXUxfLdCTmUdIPybufkfwDh0qegxmSfP3PtutX_bbfDbExf76yv3zizethlNdSA9gCNRjK9wbB7SUAaLFtCz_gKBXW8kOUxC74U9Dg2mT8A7-vzgfWO8gb2u3K6-mxy4S4co7xcQS41pscpJZsMGFynR2XMDU2rTThwepnhyVQ8Fw/s320/tornado%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigZ01TcOkTyOgjDObOTV902bgCP6BHYIjyV1jR1AQ-_ib_PW4y-vvox7YVvUUJe1CSVkYmGu8yGUyNKj1l6TbpB5ObLtJNRhlXEQF7JY-IMXXUYf6gYk3rXxMQZsnDh23DCtPLWYEA3Xmwlm7zs6gDKswVmI10K8Xo5TR1FRYJj0cEa4ZOTNfwwTQ-pQ/s1105/tornado%205.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="645" data-original-width="1105" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigZ01TcOkTyOgjDObOTV902bgCP6BHYIjyV1jR1AQ-_ib_PW4y-vvox7YVvUUJe1CSVkYmGu8yGUyNKj1l6TbpB5ObLtJNRhlXEQF7JY-IMXXUYf6gYk3rXxMQZsnDh23DCtPLWYEA3Xmwlm7zs6gDKswVmI10K8Xo5TR1FRYJj0cEa4ZOTNfwwTQ-pQ/s320/tornado%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Just four
minutes after the Rolling Fork, Midnight and Silver City <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EF4 dissipated, a new tornado developed. This
tornado struck Black Hawk and Winona in Mississippi, where is caused significant
damage. This tornado was rated an EF3 with peek winds of 155 mph, the damage
path was 0.7 of a mile wide at points, the track length was 29.2 miles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The third long-track
tornado, was also rated EF3 by the National Weather Service Memphis, with top
winds of 155 mph, a very wide damage path up to 0.9 of a mile, with a track length
of 36.91 miles. This EF3 caused significant damage across Amory, Alabamia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The NWS issued
multiple tornado emergency warnings for all three tornadoes during their lifetime.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As of this writing
There have been 14 confirmed tornadoes for the 24th event.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The outbreak
continued March 25 into the 27<sup>th</sup>. There were 7 confirmed tornadoes
on the 25<sup>th</sup>, across Alabamia, Tennessee, and Georgia, including two
EF2 that struck Alabama. March 26 saw 6 confirmed tornadoes over Alabamia and
Georgia. Alabamia and Georgia saw three tornadoes on the 27th. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-8588118629850618072023-03-18T19:45:00.014-04:002023-05-03T20:17:12.684-04:00The 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook Part One<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The tropical
season will be here soon. As I try to do every year, I release a multipart Hurricane
Outlook. This will be part one. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
first part will be just a cursory look at some of the features that look to
have an influence on the hurricane season. Later parts of the series will
narrow down and expand on curtain aspects such as teleconnections, sea Surface
temperatures, vertical wind shear, Saharan dust, and other factors. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I will start
with a few basic definitions. I will use these during the hurricane season. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Storm
surge</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is a very
pronounced rise in sea level as sea water is pushed inland. Storm Surge can
travel many miles inland. Storm Surge accounts for the majority of injuries and
deaths associated with tropical cyclones. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Saffir Simpson wind speed scale</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is a one to five rating system based on a hurricanes maximum
sustained wind speed. The scale is only based on wind speed. This is a major problem
as it doesn’t show the true danger the storm processes such as storm surge and
rainfall flooding and the chance for tornadoes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Saharan Air Layer</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is
a massive plume of very dry dusty air that originates from the Sahara Desert.
These plumes can make it across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean, Gulf
of Mexico and over the CONUS (Continental United States).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
tropics</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> are a region
of the Earth that surround the equator, they are between the latitude lines
called the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere and the Tropic of
Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere. The climate of the tropics consists of a
yearly mean temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) and have very
high humidity. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A
tropical wave</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> (TW) </span><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">(African Easterly Waves)</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> is an area (cluster) of low pressure that generally moves east to west across
the tropical Atlantic, due to the prevailing easterly trade winds. T</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 19.9733px;">hey're typically situated north to south and are generally slow moving. These waves form within the African Easterly Jet Stream. Because the air flows faster within the Jet; these waves can begin to spin, increasing the risk for tropical cyclone development.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> The meteorological
reason for a tropical wave has to do with the distribution of warm moist air
toward the poles, and not the formation of tropical storms. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A
tropical cyclone</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
(TC) is a generic term for a rotating organized area of convection
(thunderstorms) This area of low pressure typically forms over water with at least a temperature of 79 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.5 Celsius). To be determined to
be a TC it must have a closed low-level circulation not attached to any front.
TC’s rotate counter clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A TC has a warm core, meaning the air in and
around their center is warmer than their surroundings. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A
tropical depression</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
(TD) is a TC that has sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A
tropical storm</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> (TS)
is a TC that has sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph. Once the TC reaches 39
mph it is given a name. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A
hurricane</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is a TC
that has sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Using the Saffir Simpson scale, Category 1
hurricanes have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph <a name="_Hlk130039210">(64 to
82 kt)</a>; a category 2 has sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph (83 to 95 kt)
Once a hurricane’s sustained wind speed reaches 111 mph it becomes classified
as a major hurricane. Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph (96 to 112 kt), Category is
4 130 to 156 mph (113 to 136 kt), and a Category 5 has sustained winds of 157
mph (137 kt) or greater.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Feeder
bands</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> are lines of thunderstorms
that pull moisture into the center of a tropical cyclone. These lines can
extend several hundred miles from the center of the storm.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Spiral
bands</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> are feeder
bands that spiral inward toward the center of the tropical cyclone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The eye</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is the center of the tropical
cyclone<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
eyewall</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> is where powerful
thunderstorms and violent winds sit just outside of the eye<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Main
Development Region</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
(MDR) sits between 10°N -20°N and extends from approximately just offshore from
the west coast of Africa and westward towards the western-most sections of the
Caribbean Sea. It’s called the MDR because most of the tropical waves in the
Atlantic pass through it, leading to around 85% of the major hurricanes and 60%
of all named storms form in the region.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Cone
of Uncertainty</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">, is a
cone shaped area added to a tropical cyclone tracking maps. It is designed to
track the center of the tropical storm or hurricane. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the cone widens into the future, the
forecast accuracy becomes less and less. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Landfall</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">, is where the eye hits and crosses
the coastline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Accumulated
Cyclone Energy</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> (ACE)
is used to express the combined lifespan and strength of tropical cyclones. The
seasonal ACE is sum of duration of all the individual tropical cyclones strength
and duration. The higher the ACE the greater the destructive potential.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Rapid
intensification</span></u><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> (RI)
occurs when a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds increase by at least
35 mph (30 kt) in a 24-hour period. RI is often coupled with a rapid decrease
in a tropical cyclone's minimum pressure, and thus RI is also known as rapid deepening.
However, the National Hurricane Center maintains its own definition of rapid
deepening, which would be a drop of 1.75 mbar/hour or 42 mbars in a day.</span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Vertical Wind Shear Strong winds aloft that can prevent tropical cyclones from forming or intensifying. But sometimes TCs find a way to survive to become hurricanes in spite of strong shear aloft. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The 2023
season…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Atlantic
Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Atlantic
storm names for the 2023 season are, Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin,
Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina,
Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Early
thoughts on analogue years…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Some of the
past seasons I’m looking at are <a name="_Hlk129973781">1957 and 1976</a> Those
hurricane seasons, came off a triple dip La Nina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two other years I’m looking at are <a name="_Hlk129973811">1997 and 2013</a> those are the years that saw the MJO become
very strong in phase 8 during March.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig3mHYjYl0ALBJoZknE-yLnbsykvpWImt4zcdGASr1yswT7d8QCA5-xvvyhAARc6Sw7RTqk47Hsr1q7xwfsYZl1-X320o-Pk8lKFVXickzeC5Z6DWrxlfBIR4moAb8Zs6tbqA_aLkGKYVKsM6nKr3Lok0okdAx5xArOZfsJbS88tEl8OhFoR0sn5sRpA/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig3mHYjYl0ALBJoZknE-yLnbsykvpWImt4zcdGASr1yswT7d8QCA5-xvvyhAARc6Sw7RTqk47Hsr1q7xwfsYZl1-X320o-Pk8lKFVXickzeC5Z6DWrxlfBIR4moAb8Zs6tbqA_aLkGKYVKsM6nKr3Lok0okdAx5xArOZfsJbS88tEl8OhFoR0sn5sRpA/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino and
La Nina are opposing phases of the ENSO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">As many of
y’all know La Nina means Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Eastern
equatorial Pacific are below average. Looking at the current SST anomalies. In
the Pacific we can see warmer than average across the Eastern Pacific
equatorial region and cooler than average temperatures in the Central
equatorial Pacific.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means we
beginning the transition to El Nino. El Nino is when means SST temperatures in
the Eastern equatorial Pacific are above average.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">We are now
in the ENSO- neutral phase. Looking at the latest weekly NINO3.4 value to 12
March 2023 was +0.03 °C, which is within the neutral range (between −0.8 °C and
+0.8 °C). This ends the 3 years of La Nina we’ve seen. While we look to stay
neutral through the spring and into the first part of summer, a switch to El Nino
should happen from late summer into fall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">That could
mean a less active Atlantic hurricane season, a more active season in the
Pacific<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino typically
brings a strong Pacific subtropical Jet that is active. This many times brings
hostile wind patterns across parts of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">El Nino is
the warm phase of ENSO, in which the waters of the eastern Pacific are warmer
than normal. Less vertical wind shear in the hurricane development zone west of
Mexico typically brings more frequent hurricanes to the eastern Pacific basin.
However, in the Atlantic, El Nino typically leads to fewer hurricanes. This is
largely due to an increase in vertical wind shear along with a drier more stable
atmosphere over the main development Region in the Atlantic. The wind shear
makes it much harder for tropical cyclones to form, the stable air drastically
reduces the lift required for tropical cyclones to form. The extra wind shear
and more stable air, also tend to tamp down intensity of those tropical
cyclones that are able to form.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0n8_1HwoVgne8ascR4F_ZjaVdzez8IddfMKjJNTvXUbKuStQBTpTpVg7vkfTleY4CtiESI3wBEu4wES3Jnd090mnzWzDkrA1huX5Uwn3-BjZcKB-13VNUCTsio8mcuIs0usDAEZPnttOxGpEUin2UHJ5Fvt5bsrgYbzLDVoaq9g0LxkUEneVQY_AN_A/s980/elninoreturn_0_0.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="980" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0n8_1HwoVgne8ascR4F_ZjaVdzez8IddfMKjJNTvXUbKuStQBTpTpVg7vkfTleY4CtiESI3wBEu4wES3Jnd090mnzWzDkrA1huX5Uwn3-BjZcKB-13VNUCTsio8mcuIs0usDAEZPnttOxGpEUin2UHJ5Fvt5bsrgYbzLDVoaq9g0LxkUEneVQY_AN_A/s320/elninoreturn_0_0.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Madden
-Julian Oscillation (MJO)…</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Is a key climate
driver that influences weather on a global scale. The MJO does have an impact
on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. When the MJO is in phase 8,1
and 2 tropical activity in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico increases.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7pbrrVDh8BXRaVLGdC4fVONCdJxuLjs9auQ3ULclq5yvC7E9psk6mfQ25FdktW3sEHug-Rxot3-fPXKhpgV2gC04rOg4voDsCs8bMIlq-8d54Fdj0djsGSaZIsSD1pcsx_ZvddUqADtImeaGUxs4HO0CtMxt0wtAzbWVTXYz7DfGtEr-G60Zk4HSrDg/s650/ECMF_BC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7pbrrVDh8BXRaVLGdC4fVONCdJxuLjs9auQ3ULclq5yvC7E9psk6mfQ25FdktW3sEHug-Rxot3-fPXKhpgV2gC04rOg4voDsCs8bMIlq-8d54Fdj0djsGSaZIsSD1pcsx_ZvddUqADtImeaGUxs4HO0CtMxt0wtAzbWVTXYz7DfGtEr-G60Zk4HSrDg/s320/ECMF_BC.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Atlantic
Basin SST…</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">The SSTs in
the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and along the U.S. East Coast are well above
average for this point of the year. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Besides
SST another thing that is important is Ocean Heat Content (OHC). OHC is the
temperature of the water under the surface down to a few hundred feet. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Looking at the OHC image, we can see OHC is
very high in the Caribbean, into the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast
Coast. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7b0PlJL0Jeyv4MRV_ewIVZDKQILv6auxYLRxitEOCLNR5gH2yUHfhQ6uXFpf9rTKyee6tGGV_SEXQMaZvboEEKsCAdFi_Ivri0J0Ygmrl6P1wTfLK1MUKcqafA-HxmmvmDsENeKZph0zAJNhb-0c546uKQKaqin57Ylhi3k-mFFR2o84_8JRv9_6bNg/s1400/tchp_conditions_latest.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1217" data-original-width="1400" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7b0PlJL0Jeyv4MRV_ewIVZDKQILv6auxYLRxitEOCLNR5gH2yUHfhQ6uXFpf9rTKyee6tGGV_SEXQMaZvboEEKsCAdFi_Ivri0J0Ygmrl6P1wTfLK1MUKcqafA-HxmmvmDsENeKZph0zAJNhb-0c546uKQKaqin57Ylhi3k-mFFR2o84_8JRv9_6bNg/s320/tchp_conditions_latest.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">My early
thoughts on this year…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on the
30-year period from 1991 to 2020, an average season in the Atlantic Basin consist
of 14 named storms, seven of these become hurricanes, with three of those
becoming major (Category 3 or higher). As for ACE based on the 1951 to 2000
average it is 92.5. Based on the 1991-2020 average it is 122.7.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, I will define the seasonal average for
2023 as between 92.5 and 122.7. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the numbers for those analogue years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1957 was a
below average season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were six
named storms, as well as two tropical storms that went unnamed. The season had three
hurricanes and two major hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
season’s ACE was slightly below average at 84.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1976 was a
below average season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were ten
named storms, The season had six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The season’s ACE was slightly below average
at 84<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1997 <a name="_Hlk130032398">was a below average season. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were seven named storms, as well as an
unnamed subtropical storm that formed in June. The season had two hurricanes
and one major category 3 hurricane.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
season’s ACE was a modest 41</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The 2013
Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly above average season with 15 named
storms. But the season was well below average when it came to hurricanes. The
season had two category 1 hurricanes and zero major hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The season’s ACE rating was only an
infinitesimal 36. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-size: 14pt;">Based on what I see so far…</b></div>
</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">El Nino doesn’t ensure a quiet season and it doesn’t mean there won’t be major
hurricanes, but it does make it less likely.</span></div><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on
where the highest heat content is. Rapidly intensifying hurricanes will be a
concern in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Looking at
the hurricane track pattern from the analogue years and the 2022 hurricane
season, as well as return dates. The areas that look to have the greatest
chance of landfalling TC are, the Florida Panhandle and the West Coast of
Florida, the East Coast of Florida south of Jacksonville. For later in the
season the Carolinas and near Bermuda. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The areas that look to have a lesser moderate
chance of landfalling systems are the Mid Atlantic between Norfolk and New York
City along with South Texas from around Port Isabel to up around Port Aransas.
The other areas of the coast have a lower risk, but that doesn’t mean zero. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZHRF2wK6IAQHrmOgdyRJOy-f7236e2CpzNrNyYUyBIk_KsPBvR66sStVAng_I74AnQGjEurqHi3jy8AOzu8G3bblKeI80PqVLh0wyqBvdu7jO5Th3l11vMFtBDhvlOZYRF4QGF4ELFnmrhvfpR-KltdS9Z0VKlecrAPgdHotl0zEw36bD9mIrTA4ilQ/s1212/map%203456.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="1212" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZHRF2wK6IAQHrmOgdyRJOy-f7236e2CpzNrNyYUyBIk_KsPBvR66sStVAng_I74AnQGjEurqHi3jy8AOzu8G3bblKeI80PqVLh0wyqBvdu7jO5Th3l11vMFtBDhvlOZYRF4QGF4ELFnmrhvfpR-KltdS9Z0VKlecrAPgdHotl0zEw36bD9mIrTA4ilQ/s320/map%203456.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">I expect we
will see the first named storm in May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">This season
looks to be an average to slightly below average season. Right now, I think 10
to 14 named storms 4-7 hurricanes and 1 -2 major hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Seasonal ACE looks to be 60-90.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that’s
it for part one. Part two will be released sometime in April, with part three
being released end of April or first of June. These later parts will adjust
what I said in part one. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you have any
questions, I will be happy to answer them in the comments here in the blog, or
on my Facebook weather pages.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">To read part two click <a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/04/my-2023-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-part.html?fbclid=IwAR1lSrPWmTqFAOD5IM60rLGMYSsJZMYrJMYiI0p3LEWdTYRxJ7y7MMHsCgA">here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-15375259100665031802023-02-13T22:39:00.009-05:002023-02-14T23:08:47.915-05:00The Northeast Middle Atlantic 2023 Spring Outlook <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Here is a
look at my thoughts for the 2023 Spring for the Northeast.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">There is no
doubt that so far, the 2022-2023 winter has been warm. Vermont, Connecticut,
Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Jersey had their
warmest January on record. New York State and Pennsylvania, recorded the
second-warmest January on Record. Maryland and Delaware also saw one of the
warmest January</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8iAi42B7U-bdbf7E5nlgxJb5dBRiwDAdCv8RAhrVBJ_W7swYuKq5xlnm3VduD_JwzuAFihbA6JVxHbH7hpotbwTKpE80Y6BRWjRQnOhKRhX66VC-JHVmtQwVE1eksJcoAOk8mh9PMUZezOxVw5oxIilkRFu9fKVbzqs1fvRp6oMsTf6XZb7uS3wIYEw/s912/Jan%202023%20warmth.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="912" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8iAi42B7U-bdbf7E5nlgxJb5dBRiwDAdCv8RAhrVBJ_W7swYuKq5xlnm3VduD_JwzuAFihbA6JVxHbH7hpotbwTKpE80Y6BRWjRQnOhKRhX66VC-JHVmtQwVE1eksJcoAOk8mh9PMUZezOxVw5oxIilkRFu9fKVbzqs1fvRp6oMsTf6XZb7uS3wIYEw/s320/Jan%202023%20warmth.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /> in the 129-year record. Away from the predominate lake snow
belts, most of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region are seeing seasonal
snowfall accumulations well below average. <o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The winter has
seen a very active pattern, with frequent storms. There we’re a couple of
snowstorms that brought parts of New York State and New England some decent
snow. But due to the prevalence of warm temperatures, most of the storms were mainly
rain events with some mixing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Right now,
the question is can we all put away our snow shovels and snowblowers? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk127216657"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Meteorological </span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">spring is right around the corner starting on March 1st and
astronomical spring begins on Monday March 20th. Meteorological Spring covers March,
April and May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">What is a
seasonal outlook?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A seasonal
outlook is a broad overview of how the season looks to unfold. It deals with
trends in temperature and precipitation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It isn’t anything like a weekly weather forecast, it is just a summary
of the season to come. A weekly forecast tries to predict what exactly will
happen over the forecast period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Seasonal outlooks deal with what is considered average for the
region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A seasonal outlook deals more
with climate science than it does meteorology. To come up with an outlook, I
look at several things, the main ones are using analogues that look at years
where the pattern looks similar to the current season, water temperature
anomalies across the globe, and various teleconnections that have an influence
on weather.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of this, outlooks
are less accurate than daily and weekly forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Analogues:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is the
list of years I’m using as analogues for this spring.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1956, 1960,
and 1984. There are also similarities to the spring of 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is how February
averaged for those four years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHhk9kMFOWPEId_7alX9apMcYjSIIU8spEJr9IyRZqMyU7t0SC2corHOpc43JGxwdJHBhhLkx9ccnYiUcm8wQr-Fl7ZEyf1Vvc5PkK4JhTwKz4tDdJpDYowE0xvyqMI-BVF7lalTEqzvo858IddhLrrey8unDA78_UCDnnrHqud9aq1NEmMh-UvjQkw/s550/feb%201956%20thru%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHhk9kMFOWPEId_7alX9apMcYjSIIU8spEJr9IyRZqMyU7t0SC2corHOpc43JGxwdJHBhhLkx9ccnYiUcm8wQr-Fl7ZEyf1Vvc5PkK4JhTwKz4tDdJpDYowE0xvyqMI-BVF7lalTEqzvo858IddhLrrey8unDA78_UCDnnrHqud9aq1NEmMh-UvjQkw/s320/feb%201956%20thru%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is how March
and April temperatures averaged for those four years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4GY0XYXV2I2urRb4UpJiwBAD-0IvJZWhPBL1f-6zMVWTrE--3f6E12yPhbawmh61mtI1d3egtw4s4Kx_6XnOxQvLJ6-0bLA02AuVZO2gpUMnER3kSF0-afKRGDozT9Pe4KyWvUwNg-ycgksAcMTJ4Go5ukoR7vchtQJ1gMDrDuN6rSMlHtfsWkPbx-A/s550/mar%20apr%201956%20thru%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4GY0XYXV2I2urRb4UpJiwBAD-0IvJZWhPBL1f-6zMVWTrE--3f6E12yPhbawmh61mtI1d3egtw4s4Kx_6XnOxQvLJ6-0bLA02AuVZO2gpUMnER3kSF0-afKRGDozT9Pe4KyWvUwNg-ycgksAcMTJ4Go5ukoR7vchtQJ1gMDrDuN6rSMlHtfsWkPbx-A/s320/mar%20apr%201956%20thru%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Each individual
year averaged like this. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1956<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX0OiFWX24IuGq6nEoaFTE99UHiWV5dhgzS6BP8q-KK5P-0zArf_DX8_rGOzMlpgXHLvOtG0aQfhxrTBgFxM1ZLrOddf90sRQcTZLUNuTkGCAZCW8dbsC4pVVyp2W83-BipBOwd0aEeZY3Xhfy6I0HV81Yvngtzw8pYsHSgRRfX9CzVN551E0naLqa_A/s550/feb%201956.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX0OiFWX24IuGq6nEoaFTE99UHiWV5dhgzS6BP8q-KK5P-0zArf_DX8_rGOzMlpgXHLvOtG0aQfhxrTBgFxM1ZLrOddf90sRQcTZLUNuTkGCAZCW8dbsC4pVVyp2W83-BipBOwd0aEeZY3Xhfy6I0HV81Yvngtzw8pYsHSgRRfX9CzVN551E0naLqa_A/s320/feb%201956.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0kRQDv__rdOTImPrZerEzl8pHtp5LUUkeqFMws5urPLRb8Zy50nol4kaax9swF1hP92LoUx9ET_Xgz6DIfv8zcI3VqQj3uP4Vq9MF06dtdt34JBuQ1BytMPStxTqq-pWiL4mjYq0M5WPF0nIGnu2gTwi-mP6f9UplNKNLOev3ho-S0XnRBZfHmknNLg/s550/mar%201956.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0kRQDv__rdOTImPrZerEzl8pHtp5LUUkeqFMws5urPLRb8Zy50nol4kaax9swF1hP92LoUx9ET_Xgz6DIfv8zcI3VqQj3uP4Vq9MF06dtdt34JBuQ1BytMPStxTqq-pWiL4mjYq0M5WPF0nIGnu2gTwi-mP6f9UplNKNLOev3ho-S0XnRBZfHmknNLg/s320/mar%201956.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgExAvKi1x-DYe451mXLocCByLvK_MT08xmQtipQFfD_YiALc1rLbOToaufKJJ33VtLf18d1JDCWI4x8PFzso9uxGIs7s0YUI8Bapu7PhC8svGULUVMjFdBeB6xIVEytCsPebzFlA096rRVdEmctfQXR5Q5-Ycs-vxOJN3lhDjixuKLWef1_niWC86jzQ/s550/apr%201956.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgExAvKi1x-DYe451mXLocCByLvK_MT08xmQtipQFfD_YiALc1rLbOToaufKJJ33VtLf18d1JDCWI4x8PFzso9uxGIs7s0YUI8Bapu7PhC8svGULUVMjFdBeB6xIVEytCsPebzFlA096rRVdEmctfQXR5Q5-Ycs-vxOJN3lhDjixuKLWef1_niWC86jzQ/s320/apr%201956.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9crErZ3Fs9nXsPWtY8ECBWdG4O7N3UhhW4XFpMvNJwykzjWc56L1qAp9gnzAl6f-d-Hww07145MgLE4XFXRFzj-eEVnEkEbkMBR6bgrR3Sgg-J_-gwXs7YOD70P_K1Arp5oYMOOhtLGPOTeN9muIWeGjW20IaG7S8isq2pka29sJ_N5Ap5IDLsCboWw/s550/may%201956.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9crErZ3Fs9nXsPWtY8ECBWdG4O7N3UhhW4XFpMvNJwykzjWc56L1qAp9gnzAl6f-d-Hww07145MgLE4XFXRFzj-eEVnEkEbkMBR6bgrR3Sgg-J_-gwXs7YOD70P_K1Arp5oYMOOhtLGPOTeN9muIWeGjW20IaG7S8isq2pka29sJ_N5Ap5IDLsCboWw/s320/may%201956.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1960<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZgsp2EmeNvskyTZoA30NZ8TSrlrCAo9NewNCM4v1fjK2romuXs7ri2KvuxzKmSI8DS96qNhGIKSgLkjo2YVIsnQpT0Pn_Dki-u0yNE90JN6j6eLx-sOUxZbOQ-LC0DOz7GH2EtbV16rURDoshuZavHUWqP3qqt9B7OaAMj9Xc25xcbPFTu_AIXHktA/s550/feb%201960.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZgsp2EmeNvskyTZoA30NZ8TSrlrCAo9NewNCM4v1fjK2romuXs7ri2KvuxzKmSI8DS96qNhGIKSgLkjo2YVIsnQpT0Pn_Dki-u0yNE90JN6j6eLx-sOUxZbOQ-LC0DOz7GH2EtbV16rURDoshuZavHUWqP3qqt9B7OaAMj9Xc25xcbPFTu_AIXHktA/s320/feb%201960.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsiBlvPhNdzdwNuRwWJKjyOVhcFEnZ1Qp9cZT5_2ORIepNs-ycNadCudjPQGkBogFPdiK9Bm4zaVU7T0Xw0szyJ8R6ikBR2sZyFR5Df1rlsHS7MODS6W08MSYXUP_u3b9khlFksKQe_JNf_D_IBO2pKqe8DHYm_gfjLzQSSCSXdvY_y5aEb9DPp6PQhg/s550/mar%201960.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsiBlvPhNdzdwNuRwWJKjyOVhcFEnZ1Qp9cZT5_2ORIepNs-ycNadCudjPQGkBogFPdiK9Bm4zaVU7T0Xw0szyJ8R6ikBR2sZyFR5Df1rlsHS7MODS6W08MSYXUP_u3b9khlFksKQe_JNf_D_IBO2pKqe8DHYm_gfjLzQSSCSXdvY_y5aEb9DPp6PQhg/s320/mar%201960.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-Otv2Em96IhtS3BKormz-na61zBxJSsZO8GVOWWpK4y2GHzw0zpfSeKDnNFAVVOCUE_7PwamwBsALTMJBO91eXunGNVqe2YbYJXKoheO_668cqizzrPpzH7GfC8fNqmWUYyNozpjtvwkNUi7VLloYquzc37_8X7quzds6uYN3ezptUVCWv1pQro5BQ/s550/apr%201960.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-Otv2Em96IhtS3BKormz-na61zBxJSsZO8GVOWWpK4y2GHzw0zpfSeKDnNFAVVOCUE_7PwamwBsALTMJBO91eXunGNVqe2YbYJXKoheO_668cqizzrPpzH7GfC8fNqmWUYyNozpjtvwkNUi7VLloYquzc37_8X7quzds6uYN3ezptUVCWv1pQro5BQ/s320/apr%201960.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQAq36lWgofzy-mGeH2jwzf1ZMuhehMd_IhS1ibODyGXpdBfgPqPWJmt2k9Xf95l2q-5Ou42KZhAA9UXN6wZAnFAHAZDP3gacE0nzMhYORxtHs4dOmzWiHcxTvNZtPE184xUdNvs1CZMz-lusevViZ36NimX22MLURDQEmcw1SD-iJwpEVeVjLORdhPA/s550/May%201960.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQAq36lWgofzy-mGeH2jwzf1ZMuhehMd_IhS1ibODyGXpdBfgPqPWJmt2k9Xf95l2q-5Ou42KZhAA9UXN6wZAnFAHAZDP3gacE0nzMhYORxtHs4dOmzWiHcxTvNZtPE184xUdNvs1CZMz-lusevViZ36NimX22MLURDQEmcw1SD-iJwpEVeVjLORdhPA/s320/May%201960.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">1984<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6rYs1iASkN3A0z_QtBl9qWRQw9_tb14pyMJdV6qysBdKd7OM2iXt9w8plHqO5NHMh0Gm6Zt1SKU4fuQ_YRaItUG0yJMEwQlXG-YLpSlWVuFV12_-2-T0cUzPCgrER64ok7vlP2dpdWZS89iLnQ2SSvABHmqfSinBTkhLVi2w39Mr5xnPMTlWezq9T4g/s550/feb%201984.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6rYs1iASkN3A0z_QtBl9qWRQw9_tb14pyMJdV6qysBdKd7OM2iXt9w8plHqO5NHMh0Gm6Zt1SKU4fuQ_YRaItUG0yJMEwQlXG-YLpSlWVuFV12_-2-T0cUzPCgrER64ok7vlP2dpdWZS89iLnQ2SSvABHmqfSinBTkhLVi2w39Mr5xnPMTlWezq9T4g/s320/feb%201984.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDrWjudZ8Bn0BBdp5AK0jjjGpeGbryWQGRL4wus-uuAocHgp3XHjSM5LuilfBfxf-fY-SK9p3bJxASrQ1nJHYJh5Uur8Piw0Z5zVSZMlqw7Zy4w9Z45o5GdkTgoaLwdUru-MNjuONDF4xMmteo6PFzlx0uifBBlop8Q2JUGlfNUTcQgurJST7bUQAscA/s550/mar%201984.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDrWjudZ8Bn0BBdp5AK0jjjGpeGbryWQGRL4wus-uuAocHgp3XHjSM5LuilfBfxf-fY-SK9p3bJxASrQ1nJHYJh5Uur8Piw0Z5zVSZMlqw7Zy4w9Z45o5GdkTgoaLwdUru-MNjuONDF4xMmteo6PFzlx0uifBBlop8Q2JUGlfNUTcQgurJST7bUQAscA/s320/mar%201984.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHcqzTdGzyLDN54kb5Q6uonmBTvlWmECXc1Zh_QmwlI2ujV875yDFCsyhkFAfvAmTHxjVsGQoLj6LE-a7KMcJMCfVHzIaIxGJuiQSb-ugVFHDEWxqHSXRiLIkpra36NBAA3_zBwJ1GOXRV4AJuPZ5ZF__RZ7lx12v2z2jQ2iGKjbXrwhaAbDNCVnAaA/s550/apr%201984.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHcqzTdGzyLDN54kb5Q6uonmBTvlWmECXc1Zh_QmwlI2ujV875yDFCsyhkFAfvAmTHxjVsGQoLj6LE-a7KMcJMCfVHzIaIxGJuiQSb-ugVFHDEWxqHSXRiLIkpra36NBAA3_zBwJ1GOXRV4AJuPZ5ZF__RZ7lx12v2z2jQ2iGKjbXrwhaAbDNCVnAaA/s320/apr%201984.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkBTaLfEYjAjc-qA-agzoLOcIF9-_Istcdz1mnVzMS_Mrs3Kz3SHPsX4HnZGx21dXAbb3QvohSe6MhZrco0wFHXktuPk4OlZNNWL9U7ojIymzWkNIdTrwi9vB603JZqih16nDVuNzs2ZFnER1OkGP45677u4G-PL393RvMec1i6DzHEiP8aTJ5USse0A/s550/may%201984.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkBTaLfEYjAjc-qA-agzoLOcIF9-_Istcdz1mnVzMS_Mrs3Kz3SHPsX4HnZGx21dXAbb3QvohSe6MhZrco0wFHXktuPk4OlZNNWL9U7ojIymzWkNIdTrwi9vB603JZqih16nDVuNzs2ZFnER1OkGP45677u4G-PL393RvMec1i6DzHEiP8aTJ5USse0A/s320/may%201984.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">2018<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh06OF-h155TY9fzphBNWrDWgHJeS-2g_TtC4uk4IQk-yIgIrCC3qnfKHw6_Cg-Qsd-xHR53J7xqlrWt9bvYNKz880yzGOxLS25bFevt-psanu_oSUMqykDsCOtSvjW88PECvg9qENvfqW4Rigr4W5AwEMuZzlkcBqDwwOeRHaw6ZYeomNIJiQf-YssKg/s550/feb%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh06OF-h155TY9fzphBNWrDWgHJeS-2g_TtC4uk4IQk-yIgIrCC3qnfKHw6_Cg-Qsd-xHR53J7xqlrWt9bvYNKz880yzGOxLS25bFevt-psanu_oSUMqykDsCOtSvjW88PECvg9qENvfqW4Rigr4W5AwEMuZzlkcBqDwwOeRHaw6ZYeomNIJiQf-YssKg/s320/feb%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIq_Xwg3InPF5s1tXjT-a8x-m-k-1I-ZdWS-CoXnDeE-5vv4ofS5woat3ef8Qj49UtRNXQA2h8DW1Y4nC-t6PT_015PD7hRhiR2gEQWSUnf7WP-kM2aMnBNMaDX_cRldZadztzeBHDekgp7AufLkd6f7kYaZ-leKSm2X6LanwSk8VgY1EFyrRbHIJH-w/s550/mar%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIq_Xwg3InPF5s1tXjT-a8x-m-k-1I-ZdWS-CoXnDeE-5vv4ofS5woat3ef8Qj49UtRNXQA2h8DW1Y4nC-t6PT_015PD7hRhiR2gEQWSUnf7WP-kM2aMnBNMaDX_cRldZadztzeBHDekgp7AufLkd6f7kYaZ-leKSm2X6LanwSk8VgY1EFyrRbHIJH-w/s320/mar%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTbx4Xegs_RCHAHJ0alDs64KxNslZp9LsP4zePddPn3C3pn_dg4F1ulzmNoa37mP_rzN3U-J7xyZkXusTqFUYhFfJJq7S6dPwyL7GIPdZCBt0ytU9Nc7dkg991tk2cM_O1-f1tlaU9GT8RNbTZs5nXV89G4moqAlerKjkIB8BjFyHK1V7YFncXJcwag/s550/apr%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTbx4Xegs_RCHAHJ0alDs64KxNslZp9LsP4zePddPn3C3pn_dg4F1ulzmNoa37mP_rzN3U-J7xyZkXusTqFUYhFfJJq7S6dPwyL7GIPdZCBt0ytU9Nc7dkg991tk2cM_O1-f1tlaU9GT8RNbTZs5nXV89G4moqAlerKjkIB8BjFyHK1V7YFncXJcwag/s320/apr%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk8D_pzqUS3nEGEMWZYCaTPHbd9yDMnfVd0zgNZwDcYKrs-Ts6mm4rfy7gbXG20AvHiV4Y4M2f_9qVNJaZ7jFlZhdfnc66_qQXOW3fv_zpBc51dXId_5ZYbP2-ljXmnkH9tOfPf-6ATxTQA3URB0Cr-6wMA6-975wKAAPHcamK7BqgqcICFZQcugCf7w/s550/may%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="550" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk8D_pzqUS3nEGEMWZYCaTPHbd9yDMnfVd0zgNZwDcYKrs-Ts6mm4rfy7gbXG20AvHiV4Y4M2f_9qVNJaZ7jFlZhdfnc66_qQXOW3fv_zpBc51dXId_5ZYbP2-ljXmnkH9tOfPf-6ATxTQA3URB0Cr-6wMA6-975wKAAPHcamK7BqgqcICFZQcugCf7w/s320/may%202018.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Teleconnections:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The El Nina
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The ENSO
deals with equatorial Pacific water temperatures and air pressure differences
between the western and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When three-month
temperature anomaly sea-surface temperatures are above average by about 1
degree Fahrenheit or more, El Nino can develop. When temperatures are below
average, La Nina can form. When temperatures are at or near average neither
develops. This is called ENSO-neutral.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Pressure differences
between Darwin and Tahiti, also help indicate if La Nina or El Nino are more
likely. When the pressure is lower than normal in Tahiti and higher than normal
in Darwin, conditions favor the development of El Nino. When the opposite
occurs, La Nina may develop.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">La Nina<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">La Nina has
played a major role, in the weather pattern over the last three years. But the
current La Nina is weakening, and we should quickly transition to ENSO neutral
during the spring. We will likely see the equatorial Pacific transition into an
El Nino over the summer into the fall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHCPayH7JgiF2lW39fD_GTyT4IK88fr3qFlxU54LheKdsCkbdR6SXFtgQRnZesvCmKZgRsgGHn5F5u8R237aza0gC2H2lKJkhA8e5omqBadyiKpHEytIrOilLjqDfI5ch9RiYEA80GKvUNR9vOEvB5YND5HIqxZ5YJx_sPix3b44oCHZAmOS2dr1s0dg/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHCPayH7JgiF2lW39fD_GTyT4IK88fr3qFlxU54LheKdsCkbdR6SXFtgQRnZesvCmKZgRsgGHn5F5u8R237aza0gC2H2lKJkhA8e5omqBadyiKpHEytIrOilLjqDfI5ch9RiYEA80GKvUNR9vOEvB5YND5HIqxZ5YJx_sPix3b44oCHZAmOS2dr1s0dg/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyPJDgzkqpVhoCq2GMMEqcuwnfUnedHNlSLRBW4S8K5dtbR5VaEE-HpcnPeREqCK-g6TVzkMIjbkiHnxkICeo3G888hbv8Ap663pDKfo7xgFluJ9vKA-Q6kEnGzcup0elMqUgpCMd3hCBiCmvCNvfQ0HMTVewcupvCxEOP0O9FfAGM__J7TJ0TrTnnQ/s983/IRI%20mid%20Jan%20ENSO%20forecast.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="983" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyPJDgzkqpVhoCq2GMMEqcuwnfUnedHNlSLRBW4S8K5dtbR5VaEE-HpcnPeREqCK-g6TVzkMIjbkiHnxkICeo3G888hbv8Ap663pDKfo7xgFluJ9vKA-Q6kEnGzcup0elMqUgpCMd3hCBiCmvCNvfQ0HMTVewcupvCxEOP0O9FfAGM__J7TJ0TrTnnQ/s320/IRI%20mid%20Jan%20ENSO%20forecast.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtzREj9R5bGUxgSadoK4RYEydg3_cAZKf5qwoQVjmYll7Qe-bvic7ojxDUdj6KW49Crxprw2HocBzbW35se4xyc0iadEgRVUAjUvQjrX8B-8dfcniVlOu3aY2TBoitCJoho3-oRivKiKbYYNHh4Oq73EW80mFNK_oKKU7ZdTpJ-2KKq7Qb24bpTmf5ww/s2295/EURO%20la%20nina%20forecast.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1484" data-original-width="2295" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtzREj9R5bGUxgSadoK4RYEydg3_cAZKf5qwoQVjmYll7Qe-bvic7ojxDUdj6KW49Crxprw2HocBzbW35se4xyc0iadEgRVUAjUvQjrX8B-8dfcniVlOu3aY2TBoitCJoho3-oRivKiKbYYNHh4Oq73EW80mFNK_oKKU7ZdTpJ-2KKq7Qb24bpTmf5ww/s320/EURO%20la%20nina%20forecast.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHKNVKs-6elv7ny9IxstCQ-wMcteKYyF4SooC-S_gtkpOgDW5dmwcmRqv-9nr_irRsf6N5Jf3TADUHeSsE2n3Yqf6LKiypVQC-ijxkwJBDGy-Ig5bhHlp24EtBlnF0_kDvn-UCUoFIsEasXNApI0nwS8Hy-bvGR2ISDtQmwyeB7TBSG0TwjbiXnMY01w/s900/plume_for%20Feb.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="900" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHKNVKs-6elv7ny9IxstCQ-wMcteKYyF4SooC-S_gtkpOgDW5dmwcmRqv-9nr_irRsf6N5Jf3TADUHeSsE2n3Yqf6LKiypVQC-ijxkwJBDGy-Ig5bhHlp24EtBlnF0_kDvn-UCUoFIsEasXNApI0nwS8Hy-bvGR2ISDtQmwyeB7TBSG0TwjbiXnMY01w/s320/plume_for%20Feb.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">But La Nina
will still be an echo during the spring, so the atmosphere will be slower to
change, even as the Pacific Temperature anomalies continue to fade.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The MJO has
been in the warm phases 4,5, and 6 quite a bit this winter. It moved into the cold
phases a little before Christmas 2022, then it moved into back into the warm
phases for a large part of January. Before dipping into the cold phases for the
end of January into the first bit of February. Then it moved back into phases
4-6. Currently the MJO looks to move back into phases 8 and 1. This would be a
strong hint that we’re going to be cooling off again. As we move into March.
This would tie into what is going on in the stratosphere above the North Pole. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN9tW8L2Pmgb6w4TKeXhcjL6nGCN5Qig1pOqJ-KaRHjNqGNJrCizDvGcbmMT2PmktTd8gvL7xdO8quApNo6oONG1KWgmh3kw6iP3OnarapcVv8M9RhLHoDvXLZU3je9Sj1ZiETlWFnbV_aEXMRsyaJgYuJo9rWPtOZg2RGdtjndrINewVRhNSCpQocAA/s821/MJO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="787" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN9tW8L2Pmgb6w4TKeXhcjL6nGCN5Qig1pOqJ-KaRHjNqGNJrCizDvGcbmMT2PmktTd8gvL7xdO8quApNo6oONG1KWgmh3kw6iP3OnarapcVv8M9RhLHoDvXLZU3je9Sj1ZiETlWFnbV_aEXMRsyaJgYuJo9rWPtOZg2RGdtjndrINewVRhNSCpQocAA/s320/MJO%201.jpg" width="307" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Arctic
Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTXjWO1YsWr74fmiMEitW0vKV_axYcQv4G_LGRwCHlJuVxgIND8RpaODtg1h2SFJphRC0Orw9p2ZAKE74pksZ2Z_9nT6vH3AfLqdBlIzempvrl10-YpaGSXDz4G00oCpsBpvV0sh2ndZLlnXzaSGS07vFcpASjTiEcs_iMw0eUff7tegQO-uI6gS0vng/s807/AO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="807" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTXjWO1YsWr74fmiMEitW0vKV_axYcQv4G_LGRwCHlJuVxgIND8RpaODtg1h2SFJphRC0Orw9p2ZAKE74pksZ2Z_9nT6vH3AfLqdBlIzempvrl10-YpaGSXDz4G00oCpsBpvV0sh2ndZLlnXzaSGS07vFcpASjTiEcs_iMw0eUff7tegQO-uI6gS0vng/s320/AO%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe4VaBmcy6jZzxFBNwQrkONrfcJk4Y5UrCa1peXRVK2rHQtANSzYMVO3YtQjMbIWQ6zHEqV-OldjQySigq38BnwMetAUua428wVkCfMsjy7DLhv8D9PneiDdHhpiljmLh7gf7TUoaFTyusopPYnJ7s7irmWN3phgOSSdTT_dlM7hiU9bF8Ltuoi4urmg/s810/NAO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="810" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe4VaBmcy6jZzxFBNwQrkONrfcJk4Y5UrCa1peXRVK2rHQtANSzYMVO3YtQjMbIWQ6zHEqV-OldjQySigq38BnwMetAUua428wVkCfMsjy7DLhv8D9PneiDdHhpiljmLh7gf7TUoaFTyusopPYnJ7s7irmWN3phgOSSdTT_dlM7hiU9bF8Ltuoi4urmg/s320/NAO%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Both of
these are looking to go negative end of February into March.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The Eastern
Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO)…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijTE1vpL3W6PDWT-5HWZsuqZp7iwMOoAB24m0X0TFWpoV5DJkZBnlZZPoBh6N4KzpttZlD4A8jOMNk9rlzB7EBNoc3I8AUYPbIzYhgdsf_rFod2LiB4Wp13dGD_1RgKhZE3USgrmLfRx5AHeujUfPScQoxjA_XifIspzudMuyDxcP9OeOHkMRwkg-46w/s810/WPO%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="810" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijTE1vpL3W6PDWT-5HWZsuqZp7iwMOoAB24m0X0TFWpoV5DJkZBnlZZPoBh6N4KzpttZlD4A8jOMNk9rlzB7EBNoc3I8AUYPbIzYhgdsf_rFod2LiB4Wp13dGD_1RgKhZE3USgrmLfRx5AHeujUfPScQoxjA_XifIspzudMuyDxcP9OeOHkMRwkg-46w/s320/WPO%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">These too,
look to try and turn negative by the beginning of March.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When these four teleconnections are negative, it's a cold signal. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Sudden
Stratospheric Warming (SSW):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">An SSW
occurs when the polar stratosphere rapidly warms by as much as around 122 <a name="_Hlk127191510">degrees</a> Fahrenheit (50 °C) in just a few days. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rapid increase in the stratospheric temperatures,
disrupts the Polar Vortex which allows the warming temperatures to prorogate down
into the troposphere.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The SSW has
an impact on the Polar Vortex (PV). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
PV is a band of strong winds that circle the Arctic from west to east 10 to 30
miles above the North Pole. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the PV
is strong the polar jet stream stays farther north and has fewer kinks along
it. This keeps the arctic air bottled up over the arctic, keeping mid latitude
temperatures warmer. When we have an SSW, the Polar Vortex breaks down and
weakens. Sometimes during a very strong SSW the PV can even reverse. The weaken
PV can no longer contain the arctic cold, and some of that arctic air can
migrate south into the mid latitudes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-ba1a_PXUlGcXGU0oj8VdrlW_xg_5ULOCvPOQ4EHMhcTAQ4d6OMna3rJxangunEHaflZEtHffAZt5JKLWGm9aR45HzYkWVjeeaN6JAllKkp0bDpQC9hvj6UQFfSl7tJHbOsWk6Z7-Pf9V93mt1Ema0ABp9ds9hXscMcdi46xzGUH6ZWdVckRrC7k7DQ/s755/ssw%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="755" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-ba1a_PXUlGcXGU0oj8VdrlW_xg_5ULOCvPOQ4EHMhcTAQ4d6OMna3rJxangunEHaflZEtHffAZt5JKLWGm9aR45HzYkWVjeeaN6JAllKkp0bDpQC9hvj6UQFfSl7tJHbOsWk6Z7-Pf9V93mt1Ema0ABp9ds9hXscMcdi46xzGUH6ZWdVckRrC7k7DQ/s320/ssw%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs3y0kNMFSTcgcczAn1FiibqyikdQ4BzRyzJokAFBT0tbu6WvHbtq7X5slcMX7_jiSqNbvRKp85DV22MuL8rnx1zkylm0t6bFf1gdppKvS_G1eG4TJ3kIwttikvxfMvBCfGsRly2tFE6lYsqPanXoGnDDwlVKY_y0SAxfCKf4WxCOdHqSC_t8qc5ujXA/s750/SSW%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs3y0kNMFSTcgcczAn1FiibqyikdQ4BzRyzJokAFBT0tbu6WvHbtq7X5slcMX7_jiSqNbvRKp85DV22MuL8rnx1zkylm0t6bFf1gdppKvS_G1eG4TJ3kIwttikvxfMvBCfGsRly2tFE6lYsqPanXoGnDDwlVKY_y0SAxfCKf4WxCOdHqSC_t8qc5ujXA/s320/SSW%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">As of 2/12/2023
we’re in the midst of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Over the next
several days this will continue to warm and move into Pole. The SSW is going to
be strong. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">this will cause the Polar
Vortex (PV) to slow down and most likely reverse. As a result, the polar Jet
will shift south and displace cold air into North America and Europe.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The SSW in
January of 2021, ended up pushing arctic air into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic
Region. 2018 is an analogue year, the strong SSW that occurred in mid-February
of that year, led to a very cold March and April.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario water temperatures:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Both lakes water
temperatures are above average for this time of year. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr5ThxsYPoKU9NBsb7AfPGNC4uEQl9prYmF9lVe3VZ2sV3XwOcS-5Rvbv2BVo9rGTbegabVkg8pGUHAV40TG4E__CTs14oBs317LamhBiuinyip88OLWokPBo4F6GTS-0pCQXIL5XiSH-lRn5lp8RDIshlkpup4ayFf76tBhZcfsQ0IUqVb8bP2NYOrw/s700/lake%20erie%20water%20temp%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="700" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr5ThxsYPoKU9NBsb7AfPGNC4uEQl9prYmF9lVe3VZ2sV3XwOcS-5Rvbv2BVo9rGTbegabVkg8pGUHAV40TG4E__CTs14oBs317LamhBiuinyip88OLWokPBo4F6GTS-0pCQXIL5XiSH-lRn5lp8RDIshlkpup4ayFf76tBhZcfsQ0IUqVb8bP2NYOrw/s320/lake%20erie%20water%20temp%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy5r9fcb1GRYCMpQU7dcZK6dl7SKOWR2rsmrbKc7ylRED-E-6SnyNJqW5ePt1cWNzWBGYfFDC6FO_BuTBa0RdTDXNRZglVvaXWlCf5O8Hxucim3-Hd2_GV1XDiarkkDfbYYhmgapeIYCx2kkbh4jTbA5naonLbVfk87_g6q7zuwEq8Z45fAIrTH2xpmw/s700/lake%20ontario%20water%20temp%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="700" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy5r9fcb1GRYCMpQU7dcZK6dl7SKOWR2rsmrbKc7ylRED-E-6SnyNJqW5ePt1cWNzWBGYfFDC6FO_BuTBa0RdTDXNRZglVvaXWlCf5O8Hxucim3-Hd2_GV1XDiarkkDfbYYhmgapeIYCx2kkbh4jTbA5naonLbVfk87_g6q7zuwEq8Z45fAIrTH2xpmw/s320/lake%20ontario%20water%20temp%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk127186749"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Lake Erie ice coverage is very low. Typically, at this point
in the winter ice coverage is around 60%. But for mid-February this year, the
ice coverage is less than 10%, <o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk127186749;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Lake Ontario
ice coverage is also very low. As of 02/13/2023, the ice coverage is less than 5%,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmUM1nPiVvon_5N9Hm9GwSbOZT3qN45eYb1tedJVFrgsTKtFUIh5RJra5m7fjqpWJLTOCwy5nCEmRJtw58r7aUq5UVQf9ELr8BknfVQ8_hbdcgiUskpap0eFpn3l9uDaWYAuJVGm4IjJQyewst3GE034keKYk9-1omFFqLnwfPyvfijuBuKnO9NY68Qg/s1500/eri_ice_compare%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1500" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmUM1nPiVvon_5N9Hm9GwSbOZT3qN45eYb1tedJVFrgsTKtFUIh5RJra5m7fjqpWJLTOCwy5nCEmRJtw58r7aUq5UVQf9ELr8BknfVQ8_hbdcgiUskpap0eFpn3l9uDaWYAuJVGm4IjJQyewst3GE034keKYk9-1omFFqLnwfPyvfijuBuKnO9NY68Qg/s320/eri_ice_compare%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnPOMKqBYYsnXP9gxFylOTO5E4D1T-e553MVG_g3XpONHRl016fsB4y4uWFX2640EMEreKKPZLK9-a9-H6boQgXL8ZK0xv1dXs2_g0DNq76oHsNAjRE0wx1wb91M25qZ-II9B4yyIJw6NnAvWXTdGy5OCKm8A8BIA6vK_DGKik91dWGoTD8L1T42bKSA/s1500/ont_ice_compare%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1500" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnPOMKqBYYsnXP9gxFylOTO5E4D1T-e553MVG_g3XpONHRl016fsB4y4uWFX2640EMEreKKPZLK9-a9-H6boQgXL8ZK0xv1dXs2_g0DNq76oHsNAjRE0wx1wb91M25qZ-II9B4yyIJw6NnAvWXTdGy5OCKm8A8BIA6vK_DGKik91dWGoTD8L1T42bKSA/s320/ont_ice_compare%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIQ2iy0I0x3x4Tc1YK2H69tft_ubgdGRURqJ1Jk4vffobNt93omkASEeT0jLX8QxCDeRlrp0PFw66RUrjUCmK-AIZauGkVN2YSizudzhDpsw8jgZDZw5a0Wq0ch8lgm8RKs9K8ftJAqypimwLmdIsppzPyXhLjekQCuhbySYDipraRkZxsxZ4b5T7K5A/s2200/great%20lake%20ice%20covarge%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1700" data-original-width="2200" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIQ2iy0I0x3x4Tc1YK2H69tft_ubgdGRURqJ1Jk4vffobNt93omkASEeT0jLX8QxCDeRlrp0PFw66RUrjUCmK-AIZauGkVN2YSizudzhDpsw8jgZDZw5a0Wq0ch8lgm8RKs9K8ftJAqypimwLmdIsppzPyXhLjekQCuhbySYDipraRkZxsxZ4b5T7K5A/s320/great%20lake%20ice%20covarge%203.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Typically, heavy
lake effect snow is rare for both lakes this time of year. But this year, the
lack of ice increases the chance for lake effect snow for those areas downwind
of both lakes. The general idea of March into April looking to be colder than
January and February, means Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely have an
extended lake snow season. </span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, what
about Spring?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Due to the things,
I just mentioned, March into April is looking to be colder and more wintery than
we’ve seen so far for winter 2022-2023. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The spring
of 2018 saw super warmth in February, but then the February powerful SSW, ended
up bringing arctic cold in the 1<sup>st</sup> part of March, the Cold lasted for
the entire month of March and well into April. March also saw four major
nor'easters at had big impacts in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and eastern
Canada. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the current SSW ends up as
strong, it could bring similar conditions to the Northeast and Middle Atlantic
this spring.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The MJO
along with the AO, NAO, EPO, and WPO are all hinting that March will be colder
than January and February. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The
analogues do point toward March and maybe part of April being overall generally
cooler. While it might not get as cold as we saw back in 2018. There is a
chance it could end up being much cooler than many think. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think March will end up below average; this
coolness will likely extend into the first part of April. So, while we will still
be dealing with this overall battle between warm and cold outbreaks. I think the first four to six weeks of Spring will be overall chilly which will
delay the true spring warmth. Even with the cooler start, I do think overall temperatures for the entire Spring will end up above average.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">March:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Given the
setup. March is looking to be overall below average when it comes to temperatures
here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic Region. March, at least
right now, is looking to be colder than January and February.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">April:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The overall
pattern will remain changeable into mid-April with at least couple of cooler
outbreaks possible. Then the overall pattern should turn milder from mid-April into
May. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">May:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Real Spring
should be in place for May. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Snowfall:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Given the active
weather pattern that looks to continue into this Spring. We could see more
snowfall during March and April, then many of us have seen so far this winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think we will end up completely erasing
the snowfall deficit for the areas away from the Great Lakes. But the southern
half of the region, could enough snow to make a decent dent into the snowfall deficit.
The snowbelts downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario have seen near average to
above average snowfall this winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
lack of ice cover, greatly increases the odds for the snowbelts to end up with snowfall
that is well above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">So, to answer
that question, I would wait to put away the snow removal equipment for a few
weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that’s
about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If the
general pattern ends up making a big change, I will release an updated Spring
Outlook Mid-March. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But for now, this is
how I think things will work out.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">If you have any questions, comment on here or on the Facebook Pages.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-41257920646698440402022-11-29T22:22:00.022-05:002023-02-07T21:38:02.581-05:002022 2023 winter outlook for the Northeast Part Three<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Well, this is it, I’m finely ready to post part three, with
my thoughts for the 2022 -2023 winter. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">November started out very warm, due to that strong ridge in
the Jet Stream, that allowed a lot of warm southern air to invade the Northeast
and Middle Atlantic region. with the entire region breaking several record day
time highs and setting record nighttime high lows. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But by Mid-November that all came to a
crashing halt. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This pattern change was
well telegraphed, and I warned all y’all about it several weeks in
advance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the pattern flip and return
of the cold, and with Thanksgiving behind us many are now thinking about the
winter and what that might bring. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">This will be the third and final part of my 2022-2023 winter outlook series for the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-2022-2023-winter-outlook-for.html">Link to part one</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2022/10/2022-2023-winter-outlook-for-northeast.html">Link to part two</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p>Part one and two went into several points that will have
major influences for our region this winter. These points look to still be in
place and look to remain that way.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p><b>Last Winter:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Like the winter before it, the 2021-2022 was a La Nina
winter. Both winters behaved very much like we would expect a La Nina to act
like. During the winter of 2021-2022, the polar vortex was relatively strong,
but it did stretch a few times bringing some cold air into the Northeast. While
the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic Region didn’t see a real cold winter,
temperatures outside of a large part of Western Pennsylvania, where overall
temperatures averaged well above average, most of the rest of the region, ended
up with overall temperatures right around average. <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik9tKbCc_DBu8c-gfBlR2s-dxXLG0jFqhcbz_-eb2yCvB7lf-PrmN_fp-DW_BKQKsu786A3zqY1qNkJOOqCyKVay2qRbcs3BAa3xrxr0BUThYIdVOejvo1D0bEEFCgr6xAmY01-nhcrv8rPvO7w_bizlNWJfgLMco06degSmAfacZPSiMr3D7fGYni7A/s695/2021%202022%20observed%20temp%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="695" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik9tKbCc_DBu8c-gfBlR2s-dxXLG0jFqhcbz_-eb2yCvB7lf-PrmN_fp-DW_BKQKsu786A3zqY1qNkJOOqCyKVay2qRbcs3BAa3xrxr0BUThYIdVOejvo1D0bEEFCgr6xAmY01-nhcrv8rPvO7w_bizlNWJfgLMco06degSmAfacZPSiMr3D7fGYni7A/s320/2021%202022%20observed%20temp%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Precipitation wise, the Northeast and Northern Middle
Atlantic Region, saw a large variation. Most of the region saw below to well below
average, with far northern New York State and far eastern Maine, ended up
overall average, with far Western New York State and Pennsylvania ended above
average. Snowfall wise much of the region ended up with below average snowfall.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Last winter in the major cities, Washington DC ended up with
13.2 inches, which is about half of an inch below their average. New York City
ended up with 17.9, which is almost 12 inches below the seasonal average,
Boston ended up with 54 inches. <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY1Ex7ip2DOAuHey0WSH-Ik_fwiC6U80k-bDvlm_ui1vfNTYRyYg9WBP0vItsAxLt1nsfiBrHkwPV8uvfIOId14xqrAvoFAGhkxzbw1jhJds7GT7uuZ-9x-bH0cMCFpRFutjexWNhFbcP_hHjpYjGuQdgIwe1NibqLdkagThxPfwhJixToq5W4ReBxzA/s700/2021%202022%20observed%20precip.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="700" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY1Ex7ip2DOAuHey0WSH-Ik_fwiC6U80k-bDvlm_ui1vfNTYRyYg9WBP0vItsAxLt1nsfiBrHkwPV8uvfIOId14xqrAvoFAGhkxzbw1jhJds7GT7uuZ-9x-bH0cMCFpRFutjexWNhFbcP_hHjpYjGuQdgIwe1NibqLdkagThxPfwhJixToq5W4ReBxzA/s320/2021%202022%20observed%20precip.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Climate.gov images based on CPC data.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>Winter 2022-2023:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Let me address the elephant in the room. There is no doubt that globally, nationally, and locally
we’re warmer on average than we were 50 years ago. I’ve never said we’re not
warming; I’ve just disagreed with the notion that most of the warming is due to
human caused warming. But no matter your view on the subject, we are warming.
The extra warming in the atmosphere, means the air can hold more water vapor,
so during the summer we have a chance to see more heavy rain events. During the
winter, it means we have a better chance to make snow
lovers happy. Those warm SST offshore combined with the large temperature gradient
(difference) between the Atlantic and land and the extra moisture in the
atmosphere, leads to a greater chance for widespread winter precipitation
events. But potential doesn’t mean it will happen with every storm that comes
through, as aways it’s a matter of timing and track. Because atmospheric
temperatures are generally warmer than they were 50 years ago, it can make it
more difficult to sort out the pattern, for what may or may not occur. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>The pre winter pattern:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The pattern over the last 7 to 8 months has been busy across
the Northeast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had several strong
inland and coastal lows, some of these ended up stalling off the Coast. Then the
first in a series of Summer and Fall Nor’easters occurred in Mid-August. The
number of coastal storms and early season nor’easters represents a pattern than
can repeat throughout the season. We also had tropical impacts from Nicole and
Ian over parts of the region. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>October
landfalling East Coast hurricanes and landfalling Florida November Hurricanes,
do have a correlation to colder and a more active winter pattern here in the
Northeast. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had an East Coast Landfall
in November 1935, the following winter of 1935-1936 was extremely cold and
snowy. Then we had Hurricane Kate, make an East Coast landfall in November of 1985. The
winter of 1985-1986 was extremely cold and snowy.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>Polar Vortex:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">When the Polar Vortex weakens and or wobbles, cold arctic
air moves into the lower latitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
cold air can drop into Asia, Europe, or North America.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Our winter pattern started with Hurricane Fiona in
September. When Fiona made landfall on Atlantic Canada with 105 mph winds, it
started the line of dominoes to fall, as Fiona continued into the Arctic
Circle. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Nicole led to a weakness in the atmosphere that resulted in
colder air sweeping into parts of the region, as well as yet another
nor’easter. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Hurricane Martin was the furthest North forming November
Hurricane in the Atlantic on record.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">All of this tropical activity had a impact on the upcoming winter pattern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">We just had our record-breaking Lake Effect Snow Event, due
to the Polar Vortex buckling sending very cold air over the warm Great Lakes.
While this wasn’t a major snowstorm across the region, it was the result of an
arctic blast. Currently the polar vortex is redeveloping. The winter of
2014-2015 saw a similar severe lake effect event that occurred on the 17-19th
of November.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, many winters that
saw early lake effect events like this ended up being active with below average
temperatures.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">But correlation is not causation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk120362054"><b>Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly</b></a><b>:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjyMFcw-vFVeWM0qcGmucg8TLJDdQUaQVX95qANZh3t6UhDV-82-3QfcfsacY5swGn7dP9Y1rQdvVE0RoIG5bPl83Orn_Gz8_lNRlW0euk4qCoSP6RgDIq2NYSIcKBC5eIxOn8QoyoFVmRVACwUEWEkTnyoPhYJBYBGqlgLHxp_6NuhLt9P8BPgfwTw/s1787/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjyMFcw-vFVeWM0qcGmucg8TLJDdQUaQVX95qANZh3t6UhDV-82-3QfcfsacY5swGn7dP9Y1rQdvVE0RoIG5bPl83Orn_Gz8_lNRlW0euk4qCoSP6RgDIq2NYSIcKBC5eIxOn8QoyoFVmRVACwUEWEkTnyoPhYJBYBGqlgLHxp_6NuhLt9P8BPgfwTw/s320/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj19WpaOo0EUI28l2wp0KBCSEMjeE_kqJvIXTPb9AkqBclp1nFVfhGVGQUfGCIeBROge__lnaJsHI-GQVTFSSCPUHoRtmjAxCI4dpZtIHhrmbUbzfVvntA-uoDv2FbgyvrlJNF9Xly7JZQU8SeYfqnGy7gM62pgb48an1FHlH15gRiM3w2hVvWb-8nQUw/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1%20(1).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj19WpaOo0EUI28l2wp0KBCSEMjeE_kqJvIXTPb9AkqBclp1nFVfhGVGQUfGCIeBROge__lnaJsHI-GQVTFSSCPUHoRtmjAxCI4dpZtIHhrmbUbzfVvntA-uoDv2FbgyvrlJNF9Xly7JZQU8SeYfqnGy7gM62pgb48an1FHlH15gRiM3w2hVvWb-8nQUw/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1%20(1).png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Looking at the latest global ocean anomalies, you can see
the cold La Nina standing out in the tropical Pacific. We also see cooling
developing along the west coast of North America, with a very warm pool in the
northern west Pacific <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Analogues:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">For the analogues I’ve finely come up with these six years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">1935-1936, 1966-1967, 1984-1985, 1995-1996, 2010-2011,
2013-2014. The winter of 2014-2015 pattern didn't match the pattern, quite as well, but it could have been used, If I had used seven analogues, it would have skewed the results to even a colder and snowier winter.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr62YyFQF9JQfcH0bazVgG1irU1VWmw1ZZo58vUdg2QmZeVM6vC3CZ0Wz8k7gGbIhBX5NRgebKcBJ0XPZB-zH-bwY6q_LZ-6CeNBO2HEqS5TajRUFvT92CzylxxSnYIlIWU0VKqsVg1OrFKo6kmNEH00W91bWK6Saf4mZ-s0-9_u4IctiTrnAvf1syYg/s550/cd50.48.70.145.337.15.6.30.prcp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="550" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr62YyFQF9JQfcH0bazVgG1irU1VWmw1ZZo58vUdg2QmZeVM6vC3CZ0Wz8k7gGbIhBX5NRgebKcBJ0XPZB-zH-bwY6q_LZ-6CeNBO2HEqS5TajRUFvT92CzylxxSnYIlIWU0VKqsVg1OrFKo6kmNEH00W91bWK6Saf4mZ-s0-9_u4IctiTrnAvf1syYg/s320/cd50.48.70.145.337.15.6.30.prcp.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbqXGUuEo5vf2nP4qg8MZzbFsvKZUElzzWsbcMqsbT-8JkoxbB6pFHtWe7YphYvfDUawwDfnCxORO6Yxqnyu_-0YMDYCoRDAp-juWfVAgkkR6FETsnpaHbSX8d_P9bpPV3rKpNpWv2QfS6PECkaOBMi_50KMkHGo87aPoV484psx_O9MzklgwEY1sOA/s550/cd50.48.70.145.337.15.5.59.prcp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="550" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbqXGUuEo5vf2nP4qg8MZzbFsvKZUElzzWsbcMqsbT-8JkoxbB6pFHtWe7YphYvfDUawwDfnCxORO6Yxqnyu_-0YMDYCoRDAp-juWfVAgkkR6FETsnpaHbSX8d_P9bpPV3rKpNpWv2QfS6PECkaOBMi_50KMkHGo87aPoV484psx_O9MzklgwEY1sOA/s320/cd50.48.70.145.337.15.5.59.prcp.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>Teleconnections:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">This winter is featuring a rare tropical dip La Nina. The La
Nina should be moderate to weak. Currently the La Nina is still basically east
based. The current strength of the La Nina is moderate, we can see this with
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value over the last 90 days has been 14.47,
when the SOI is generally between 14 and 20, the La Nina is considered
moderate.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddWlAUnZvaI6MxoVVvKptNVxpQiT5-7Enr6bQq9f8C-9eHOHfesexTdmJIBxIghZ0VUFMTWZE-qTs1NPS0aCaHmlCj-F931uFkpOz3XMt8ocswpc104_2-2j2j7EYFOXztahp8Ax2W6NNNhBmAdyUdG49icevdGczoXs210-OKWviDrwoUY2Z8TaN9w/s983/part%203%20soi%20index%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="983" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddWlAUnZvaI6MxoVVvKptNVxpQiT5-7Enr6bQq9f8C-9eHOHfesexTdmJIBxIghZ0VUFMTWZE-qTs1NPS0aCaHmlCj-F931uFkpOz3XMt8ocswpc104_2-2j2j7EYFOXztahp8Ax2W6NNNhBmAdyUdG49icevdGczoXs210-OKWviDrwoUY2Z8TaN9w/s320/part%203%20soi%20index%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Here is a look at the IRI probability forecast. It predicts
the current moderate La Nina will weaken and become weak during the 2<sup>nd</sup>
half of winter, likely transitioning to neutral during spring 2023.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpVsT3-EJrJFfL1FSeuf96H5UHJx0KYvp2JcU1hbJtnWUr-2nh1DIwdBAPRiLZdNP6tIbT5kta3KUD3w-3qPzXYIv83XdRMeTWRAWZkQR9xvgaXB0X8pMf9BZKObVOz1ovySIyIgi6HjgXldiVhx5UCPwhUXyYZlyuDnI5C1FUEyE7Z2TCfsimTWEUjg/s837/part%203%20ENSO%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="826" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpVsT3-EJrJFfL1FSeuf96H5UHJx0KYvp2JcU1hbJtnWUr-2nh1DIwdBAPRiLZdNP6tIbT5kta3KUD3w-3qPzXYIv83XdRMeTWRAWZkQR9xvgaXB0X8pMf9BZKObVOz1ovySIyIgi6HjgXldiVhx5UCPwhUXyYZlyuDnI5C1FUEyE7Z2TCfsimTWEUjg/s320/part%203%20ENSO%203.jpg" width="316" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I discussed the La
Nina in parts one and two. So, no need to go into a lot of detail. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Pacific decadal Oscillation (PDO):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Looking at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly above, currently
the PDO is generally negative. But, in part two, I talked about how the PDO
looked to be trying to turn positive. The cooler SST pool in the Gulf of Alaska
has expanded, and as I said above there does appear to be cooling trying to
develop off the West Coast. So, it is still possible the PDO could become
neutral or go positive. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The warm Atlantic stands out as well. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">QBO is looking to be positive (westerly)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The QBO deals with winds in the stratosphere above the
equator. This belt of winds circles around the equator. The wind direction
generally switches direction every 14 months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">On average winters that feature a positive QBO, tend to be
milder for the Eastern CONUS. This is because there is less tendency for the
polar vortex to become disrupted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Pacific North American Pattern (PNA):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">We have the higher heights in the Gulf of Alaska, lower
heights in the Aleutians, and higher heights over Florida. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, we should see the PNA become predominantly
positive this winter. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The EPO is negative, with the current strength of the
ridging into Alaska, I think the EPO should remain mainly negative for much of
winter 2022-2023. This will help in displacing the cold air into the Great
Lakes and East.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The IOD deals with variations in the difference between the
SST in the tropical Western and Eastern Indian Ocean. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The IOD was negative, but it has been weakening. The most
recent value is -0.06 which means it is now- neutral.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the IOD is negative, Lower 48 typically
see warmer than average temperatures. With the IOD currently neutral and
heading toward positive. It would be an indicator for cooler than average
temperatures. <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVq4wYpCdk6_rv_jBgMnfv8vlljgLR5Dxxmin7htOxPZ9qi5nyXMTZu2qZU3-yk0e9GGojh0fvHBccfHg6ET_R5tH_teNrZAEsIRxWJJHnGYm-s_abpgOccVYv6SD_1oc6bk5EQlptF3MaF9SX1DNp80I1DkZnEwm94nkr5Iqs38Fz0aWZ8usBWWuR-A/s1135/part%203%20IOD%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1135" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVq4wYpCdk6_rv_jBgMnfv8vlljgLR5Dxxmin7htOxPZ9qi5nyXMTZu2qZU3-yk0e9GGojh0fvHBccfHg6ET_R5tH_teNrZAEsIRxWJJHnGYm-s_abpgOccVYv6SD_1oc6bk5EQlptF3MaF9SX1DNp80I1DkZnEwm94nkr5Iqs38Fz0aWZ8usBWWuR-A/s320/part%203%20IOD%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The AMO is a very long term (decadal) oscillation, meaning
it doesn’t flip every few years. Currently, the AMO is in its positive (warm)
phase AMO. Looking at the chart (blue is negative and red is positive), we can
see the last negative phase went generally from the early 1960’s into the early
2000’s. Then we flipped to the positive phase, outside of a few variations
we’ve been long term phase ever since.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Why is this important? Warm SSTs in the northern Atlantic,
can increase precipitation amounts for us here in the Northeast and Middle
Atlantic Region.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The MJO is a tropical pattern, involving an eastward
atmospheric pattern and rainfall, that circles the earth every 30 to 60 days.
It broken down into 8 phases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is known
to have big influence a variety of weather patterns around the globe. There is
a significant relationship between the phases of the MJO and the frequency of
nor’easters.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">When the MJO is in phases 7, 8, and 1, chances of snowfall
are increased. Chances of snowfall are decreased for MJO phases 4 and 5. Research
has shown Nor’easters are more numerus when the MJO is in phases 7 and 8. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Teleconnections are important, but they’re not the end all
say all. They will give you an overall broad brush as to what the pattern looks
to generally do. But they don’t tell you where the ridges and troughs will
setup, or where the individual storms will track.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>Eurasian and Northern Hemisphere Snowfall Extent:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Snow extent has grown very fast over the last 30 days. Snow
extent over East Asia has been fairly robust and currently is above the 30-year
average. In fact, snow extent across the entire northern Hemisphere is well above
average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Russia is almost completely
covered in snow, Alaska and Canada have been inundated with snow, and extends
farther south over the Lower 48 than the average. But the snow extent is the
largest it has been in 56 years. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Extensive snow extent early in the season is an indicator of
the amount of colder air available in the pattern has we head into Winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
across Western Asia, snowfall hasn’t been as pronounced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea that snow extent is deep and
expanding across Siberia, is a good sign for an expansive pool of cold air over
that region. If this happens, there is a much greater chance for disruptions in
the Polar Vortex, leading to chances for cold outbreaks across North America.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">When we look back at the winters that had a similar snow
extent; the Northeast and Middle Atlantic had overall cold and snowy winters.
These winters also featured severe lake effect snow storms; we’ve just had one 10 days ago. With another big lake effect event occurring tomorrow. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs_CCJHcTa_u-nFWblwW4kie5OjaZUXx_lTNZ5Xu5ACsTDM-Hk4B7yZdJiIRRGuwCFyriq6kZXbXYzspFlYkyuQqSS6SnR84oNCxqdv0YpjPrjM1VGXSDiP4CMP1tf3LsLMERT28SZe_ydOWpuJSuvbjteul9OKzW0s9OvyFTk8El-jrw5dz0lYph01g/s1135/part%202%20snow%20extent%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="1135" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs_CCJHcTa_u-nFWblwW4kie5OjaZUXx_lTNZ5Xu5ACsTDM-Hk4B7yZdJiIRRGuwCFyriq6kZXbXYzspFlYkyuQqSS6SnR84oNCxqdv0YpjPrjM1VGXSDiP4CMP1tf3LsLMERT28SZe_ydOWpuJSuvbjteul9OKzW0s9OvyFTk8El-jrw5dz0lYph01g/s320/part%202%20snow%20extent%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <o:p> </o:p> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinwP3QimOcHKtUi8z0w2p2wPoxbWxtoIPqRdIPqU-oUs_IPkYNGDpLJKIqHAJveWwy5slRXzBTd1aTxiafR7Kma4sjt_8Zc08KMkgwL6I5ZOHEC0fA_HJIrnKsJ_Av92Vn5Pq9Ft_ExUd5Tqbq509Ew9JWjuLNIpVP-K0-jRmVNe5wzO0famXqIZvpkw/s1169/part%202%20snow%20extent%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1169" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinwP3QimOcHKtUi8z0w2p2wPoxbWxtoIPqRdIPqU-oUs_IPkYNGDpLJKIqHAJveWwy5slRXzBTd1aTxiafR7Kma4sjt_8Zc08KMkgwL6I5ZOHEC0fA_HJIrnKsJ_Av92Vn5Pq9Ft_ExUd5Tqbq509Ew9JWjuLNIpVP-K0-jRmVNe5wzO0famXqIZvpkw/s320/part%202%20snow%20extent%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p><b>The predominate winter storm types:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Clippers, Cutters, Miller B nor’easter and Miller A nor’easter<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Clippers, drop out of Western Canada drop into the Upper
Midwest and then move somewhere between the Northeast and the Delmarva
Peninsula. These typically bring light to moderate snow events. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Cutters, move up the coast along the Appalachian Mountains. Depending on how they track they can bring a mix of precipitation types. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Miller B’s many times start out as a clipper type system,
but they end up transferring to a 2<sup>nd</sup> low offshore. These complex
storms move fairly slow but can bring big snow but who sees heavy snow depends
more on timing. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Miller A’s typically start over the Gulf of Mexico then
moves up the Coast. Miller A’s are what is normally called a classic Nor’easter,
and can move slowly or very fast. Miller A’s can bring widespread heavy snow
who sees how much depends on the storm track.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">November has been very active, we’re seeing lots of storms
moving up into the Great Lakes (which is quite common this time of year), and
more than a few coming up the coast. These storms have brought a lot of winter
type with them, when we look back at winters that had similar November’s they
ended up being quite wintery. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The last part of November has seen a warming trend. Looking
at the teleconnections this mild pattern should last into around December 5<sup>th</sup>.
After that, a much more wintery pattern develops. At that time, we will have a
strong ridge across Alaska and Greenland, as a result of the negative EPO,
negative AO and the negative NAO. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
should have troughing setting up over the Plains for the end of November, this
would likely expand east as we get into December. This is likely to be widespread
and long-lasting cold East of the Rockies, with chances for snow storms due to
that active subtropical Jet. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The MJO is
looking to move into Phase 7 as we get into December, As I said above, when the
MJO is in phases 7,8 and 1 the chances for coastal snowstorms increases along
the East Coast. We also look to have another disruption in the Polar Vortex, for the first part of January. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Many outlets are keying on La Nina being the major influence
for this upcoming winter season. Typically, during La Nina the subtropical jet
stream is weaker, which means less moisture available over the East Coast, with
a lesser chance for phasing developing for bigger snowstorm potential. But less
moisture doesn’t mean no snow…when we average all La Nina years, snowfall
patterns across northern New York State and northern New England tend to be
above average, with the rest of the region typically seeing below average
snowfall. Since no two La Nina’s are exactly the same, that can vary. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">For this winter, I’m betting on La Nina not being typical or
the main driver of this winter. Many times, during La Nina we see a predominate
zonal flow, with a firehose of moisture coming off the Pacific and working
across the CONUS. For winter 2022-2023 I don’t see that being the case. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is a lot of amplitude over the Pacific,
with a steep ridge building into the Aleutian Islands. We have a very active
southern subtropical jet stream. I covered the reasons for this in parts one
and two. This active subtropical jet stream is more than likely going to
distort the influence from La Nina. As I said in part one and two. The Hunga
Tonga Volcano huge water vapor ejection is the reason for the subtropical jet
being and staying so active, due to the imbalance it set into motion. So, it
will have a big impact on our winter weather.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>What could go wrong:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Southeast ridge when this pushes north it might overwhelm
the pattern, especially for the Mid Atlantic. The Tonga Volcanic eruption is
another wild card. An event like this that pushed so much water vapor into the
atmosphere, has never been witness in recorded weather history, so we’re in new
territory. If it behaves different than I anticipate it will throw the entire
outlook into the dumpster. Another wild card will be the chance that this La Nina will be more of a hybrid than I anticipate .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The MJO will
be another wildcard. MJO phases will be critical in how the winter storms
behave.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b>OK so what about the Northeast and northern Middle
Atlantic this winter:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">To call for the type of winter I am, is a bold statement, most outlets are calling for the exact opposite. But I have to trust in the data, and what I see! </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">I still think this is going to be a front-loaded winter. Winter
starts early with December being overall quite cold. With the Pattern setting
up, there should be several snow chances. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It does look like we’re going to see another polar
vortex event during the first 10 days of December. We could see it very cold near or over Christmas, with the chance for some snow. As I said, in the earlier
parts of this outlook, the polar vortex for this winter is looking to be fairly
weak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This winter is going to be very
active, so the idea of a weak polar vortex is a good thing if you want to see
cold and snow. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">So, with December into at least Mid-January looking to be
generally cold and snowy. That’s next? Well, I think we’re going to see a lull
develop for the last part of January and well into February. But that doesn’t
mean there won’t be cold shots, depending on timing there could be chances for
snow during this time as well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then for
the end of February into March we could see a better chance for a few larger
snowstorms. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The pattern I’ve described, means this isn’t going to be the
type of winter we’ve become accustomed to the last several years. The pattern
means several nor’easters are likely this winter, but not all of them will have
a track that brings widespread heavy snow. <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPWrKGgP1I963PQ5C3WO4F-BtSE9srQg91hZI48_FmYLmxdZfCsNsjm-LQ6NCsa10ssiEfV-Vo10q3Qj8xKY6fFCnzIqRk9h7RgP-N3p6mO_bcshtZoF5v5TkGWy9lhfNDRv_Mpc-yG99x-vjlPF_kebqfwjaplqas17y94jyiqDQJizBZPId-vMGHBw/s1053/ne-us-map%20%20Temperature%202022%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1053" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPWrKGgP1I963PQ5C3WO4F-BtSE9srQg91hZI48_FmYLmxdZfCsNsjm-LQ6NCsa10ssiEfV-Vo10q3Qj8xKY6fFCnzIqRk9h7RgP-N3p6mO_bcshtZoF5v5TkGWy9lhfNDRv_Mpc-yG99x-vjlPF_kebqfwjaplqas17y94jyiqDQJizBZPId-vMGHBw/s320/ne-us-map%20%20Temperature%202022%202023.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwtypBN6RrmUWT_kPO17H9oqxldNVc33feYlLv7LKYlvIui_HksLSgnXG0eoFBv4nNFutVVOZOgEn576Nb5mXX9tFvUVbYIhsnCoP8A6dIO57njU8AiurRROZqPTc04MTrPdusE4Ymf4RsHRPcj69eH8UtANg5KZFlLA0LCuhG_kMUhDHmh-p6ZPwfNA/s1053/ne-us-map%20%20snowfall%202022%202023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1053" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwtypBN6RrmUWT_kPO17H9oqxldNVc33feYlLv7LKYlvIui_HksLSgnXG0eoFBv4nNFutVVOZOgEn576Nb5mXX9tFvUVbYIhsnCoP8A6dIO57njU8AiurRROZqPTc04MTrPdusE4Ymf4RsHRPcj69eH8UtANg5KZFlLA0LCuhG_kMUhDHmh-p6ZPwfNA/s320/ne-us-map%20%20snowfall%202022%202023.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Well that's it....We will see how things work out. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3237556259812096649.post-11749934071123351282022-10-28T18:57:00.006-04:002022-10-29T21:09:44.154-04:002022 2023 winter outlook for the Northeast part two<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Welcome to
part two of my 2022-2023 winter outlook. Part, one went into this seasons triple
dip La Nina, a few teleconnections, and the Hunga Tonga Volcanic eruption. Part
one, showed how both of those are arguing for a colder than average winter for
a large part of the Northeast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Part two will
go into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, the Quasi
Biennial Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Pattern, and how they
detract or enhance the atmospheric effect of the La Nina and Volcanic eruption.
Part two will go into possible storm tracks we should see this winter. As well
as some thoughts on the Polar Vortex. I will also go more into analogue winters
and make some adjustment from part one. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><a href="http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-2022-2023-winter-outlook-for.html"> 2022-2023 winter outlook part one</a></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Teleconnections:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The PDO is a
change in the Sea Surface Temperatures pattern in the North Pacific Ocean above
20-degree north latitude. Like all teleconnections the PDO has a positive
(warm) phase and a negative (cool) phase. Generally during the positive phase,
warmer SST exist along the Northwest Coast and West Coast of Canada. During the
positive phase the wintertime temperatures tend to be warmer across the western
CONUS and cooler in the eastern CONUS, during the negative phase the opposite
is generally true. The Phases of the PDO can enhance or diminish the effects caused
by the ENSO. So, when we have a negative PDO during a La Nina, it can increase the
impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns typical of La Nina. The last
two winters involved negative PDO’s. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">When we look
at the SST in the northern Pacific, we can see those warm SST off the West
Coast south of Alaska. It seems the PDO is starting to turn positive. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW77ldEY_NRv1iB0lPsGpyorbdzowi3nw12FODFDxSr4Hz83fAK3MEPdOelO7UEUwuSF38onbnQeYrGbGUbVwwQTDcBHk2TVfBaIEmw-kiBAPsiA6Uc5d96YWFHxCh4WugP1j-Ldn8kegVKqDtSxwti6LkGZaQesOK7lQklkB2M1gZHfP9kyBBpXHI2A/s1024/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1024" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW77ldEY_NRv1iB0lPsGpyorbdzowi3nw12FODFDxSr4Hz83fAK3MEPdOelO7UEUwuSF38onbnQeYrGbGUbVwwQTDcBHk2TVfBaIEmw-kiBAPsiA6Uc5d96YWFHxCh4WugP1j-Ldn8kegVKqDtSxwti6LkGZaQesOK7lQklkB2M1gZHfP9kyBBpXHI2A/s320/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The La Nina,
PDO and the Hunga Tonga Hunga eruption will make this winter very distinctive: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">As I said in
part one, this winter is going to feature a triple dip weak to moderate East
Based La Nina. The fact that we look to see a positive PDO during this coming
winter, is a big deal. Every other triple dip La Nina had a negative PDO. So,
therefor they enhanced the La Nina in those winters. So clearly as rare as
these triple dip La Nina’s are, this one is going to be one of kind. Looking
back at La Nina winters that had a positive PDO, we come up with 1908-1909,
1938-1939, 1984-1985, 1995-1996 and 2005-2006. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Only 95-96
featured a weak polar vortex and a strong very persistent negative phase of the
AO and NAO. That winter was an extremely snowy winter. Due to how the pattern for
the entire winter was perfect for winter storms. So that doesn’t mean this
winter would end up the same. But, each one of these winters featured average
to above average snowfall across our region. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Hunga
Tonga Hunga volcano: <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">In part one
I went into some detail on the <a name="_Hlk117516858">Hunga Tonga Hunga </a>eruption.
But that volcanic eruption is so unique, that it forces me to talk more about
it and the impacts it could bring for this winter.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Here are a
couple of images that show the amount of Water Vapor from the eruption and its
distribution across the globe. We can see that the amount of water vapor
released is astonishing. We can also see that the vast majority of the
stratospheric water vapor is confined to the Southern Hemisphere. </span><span style="font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 16pt;">The amount and distribution are going to have
a big say in this winter’s temperature and precipitation pattern. In fact, the
eruption aftereffects are the main reason this hurricane season has acted the
way it has.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRM56a6N7hbYGwNM1pdmM6UpYNjX_SCRbmv8ESX1wGINTWQWuFpP1Xp65cFslupBp0Jko_l2R_2WaPYf9aAwzvtCvq1GUvyUUM7tHQQLBSG1arxXm2FYZWgVXV_gVQ-XwJ7dJpk8YUhaRI8JeMP4u8aKmuV0w758bQNyvl-5HlUhj7oJE0qZC5VPj0ZQ/s852/water%20vapor%20for%20part%202a.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="852" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRM56a6N7hbYGwNM1pdmM6UpYNjX_SCRbmv8ESX1wGINTWQWuFpP1Xp65cFslupBp0Jko_l2R_2WaPYf9aAwzvtCvq1GUvyUUM7tHQQLBSG1arxXm2FYZWgVXV_gVQ-XwJ7dJpk8YUhaRI8JeMP4u8aKmuV0w758bQNyvl-5HlUhj7oJE0qZC5VPj0ZQ/s320/water%20vapor%20for%20part%202a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCu7UwDapvwWZCS979YiMAn5bwYJh1JaedWUv5OrnNudSYANxVVfzyRAIKbqNPZ1kWYzVv7tUcmb69SkmiWckbYFma65_mQTAoh986iev2dcQ0igq2qx91hV0sLykfhrdJNOea85eVzJQlY5tDEcCxrCidp3YEb31UtE2e6r1DQAjUhuvnNipE0yXyLg/s811/water%20vapor%20for%20part%202%20b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="811" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCu7UwDapvwWZCS979YiMAn5bwYJh1JaedWUv5OrnNudSYANxVVfzyRAIKbqNPZ1kWYzVv7tUcmb69SkmiWckbYFma65_mQTAoh986iev2dcQ0igq2qx91hV0sLykfhrdJNOea85eVzJQlY5tDEcCxrCidp3YEb31UtE2e6r1DQAjUhuvnNipE0yXyLg/s320/water%20vapor%20for%20part%202%20b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">It all comes
down to balance, or in this case the lack of balance. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">In part one
I showed the stratospheric cooling at occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. When
we go to see the stratospheric data from the CPC and look at the 30hPa layer of
the Southern Stratosphere we can see that the current temperature (shown by the
red line, is at a historically low level. It is well below the base line. The 50hPa
layer shows the same kind of well below average cooling. All of this rapid cooling
was a result of all that water vapor being sent into the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere
causing the upper atmosphere to contract. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result of the upper atmospheric cooling the
troposphere ended up warming due to the expansion of the lower atmosphere</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikBHlEit6qPbA9rBPCVrK_HTdie4X-fQ3RmJX8QO2LRR4iV1Tz9CcZi_X8ixsT5pYHOkou9Mz8FV2mss-LaKp0WmxQUiZRmBoCVkbcSm8aMswiYLa8MRu8RyBurLoBMhG21L4foadW5JZr8qieuRq4LQGlKmxCQwDg9dZRHySarOT7ESwdvnjflQuMdA/s864/strat%2030%20S%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="864" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikBHlEit6qPbA9rBPCVrK_HTdie4X-fQ3RmJX8QO2LRR4iV1Tz9CcZi_X8ixsT5pYHOkou9Mz8FV2mss-LaKp0WmxQUiZRmBoCVkbcSm8aMswiYLa8MRu8RyBurLoBMhG21L4foadW5JZr8qieuRq4LQGlKmxCQwDg9dZRHySarOT7ESwdvnjflQuMdA/s320/strat%2030%20S%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXBPZuUqmTGOz-3A1R6fLOXa4Yf8PPgBs67dQZJgeq2tgJq04DRtcl_lbWI1dFIa7lmNXt9XtaHnw3AUdS8lYWAAq91_D62CKZDUnuvgqP4x2lylamWYizieyhslLATfq55pezjjlhkX8n5NWpo-SozZAqslXPEwYacOn98sLXGCSOK7IbDtbVal2eOQ/s864/strat%2050%20s%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="864" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXBPZuUqmTGOz-3A1R6fLOXa4Yf8PPgBs67dQZJgeq2tgJq04DRtcl_lbWI1dFIa7lmNXt9XtaHnw3AUdS8lYWAAq91_D62CKZDUnuvgqP4x2lylamWYizieyhslLATfq55pezjjlhkX8n5NWpo-SozZAqslXPEwYacOn98sLXGCSOK7IbDtbVal2eOQ/s320/strat%2050%20s%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">But when we
look at the stratospheric data for the Northern Hemisphere, we see the exact opposite,
those 30hPa and 50hPa layer temperatures are above average. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhupnlca3h_jC7Cgp7p4uPfWPOOdbQHcM7frM14jFqZq68mexBxGObUmExHlZ2m5uSvWwmespECf6AmjhN-GCvFMXOnbV2I2o3QvlXcYrEB3Yab6RKCPzqjcs18boXqybFnjrS3qFsI7RZUhhURD1lE4FLgT4jOJou4jZTAZVH42FZQv0PLgHc6q2_Sug/s864/strat%2030%20n%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="864" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhupnlca3h_jC7Cgp7p4uPfWPOOdbQHcM7frM14jFqZq68mexBxGObUmExHlZ2m5uSvWwmespECf6AmjhN-GCvFMXOnbV2I2o3QvlXcYrEB3Yab6RKCPzqjcs18boXqybFnjrS3qFsI7RZUhhURD1lE4FLgT4jOJou4jZTAZVH42FZQv0PLgHc6q2_Sug/s320/strat%2030%20n%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUC1x2GQTQ5z_e6DddjcpBBjVXsw1RTdUWIfF8lZByavOjVw3Crsk35WOEnd9LP0uIUxoRam6unWUgiWTNA16jEo3A9W4RxySoAI1_1QWMXzu8rzur3XtYS-5iNKBTN3r_wii5UAoKrt7r2dXHT5sfMNoVYg4tDJpl7KgFSkWsKeNHnHDwVfpeaqSjDA/s864/strat%2050%20n%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="864" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUC1x2GQTQ5z_e6DddjcpBBjVXsw1RTdUWIfF8lZByavOjVw3Crsk35WOEnd9LP0uIUxoRam6unWUgiWTNA16jEo3A9W4RxySoAI1_1QWMXzu8rzur3XtYS-5iNKBTN3r_wii5UAoKrt7r2dXHT5sfMNoVYg4tDJpl7KgFSkWsKeNHnHDwVfpeaqSjDA/s320/strat%2050%20n%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The Subtropical
Jet has been very active this year; which is very atypical for a La Nina year.
This is one of the main reasons this year’s hurricane season turned out the way
it did. The Northern Hemisphere atmospheric profile was a blend of La Nina and
El Nino; which led to all that extra windshear over the tropical Atlantic due
to the active subtropical jet. So that well above average hurricane season
forecast, never had a chance to get going. This was all a result of the global
atmospheric circulation trying to find balance. This is already affecting the
polar vortex over the Arctic. In these images we can see while the Polar Vortex
over the Antarctic is very strong and well defined. The Polar Vortex over the
Arctic is very weak and very elongated.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">North </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEop2zhoYwvuaD8ie722kKVobLVeDlTliXhPC5HbEJh9ACdAd-wMkC8qeFeN64b3TwTCjyoyGgKWP7IJWS6YLTNoN1Na7mD9dLMYR_dNMkZHGOY6_Qy2DE_D9T6jgDTqmbW4BILXztr7ewlxcbUFTkUwtlla_XjlP1U4EpWXzaWio2KEJvLKv3HInLig/s898/pv%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="898" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEop2zhoYwvuaD8ie722kKVobLVeDlTliXhPC5HbEJh9ACdAd-wMkC8qeFeN64b3TwTCjyoyGgKWP7IJWS6YLTNoN1Na7mD9dLMYR_dNMkZHGOY6_Qy2DE_D9T6jgDTqmbW4BILXztr7ewlxcbUFTkUwtlla_XjlP1U4EpWXzaWio2KEJvLKv3HInLig/s320/pv%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTacmOytPn2g6Vr2NWfZB7cwrr0X302HP5YUT7AqiXYvMB7JaDwpeSPAcaYUSLHZtDbn8mVp1brzd-eWXeLWLx1kTWXWtZYBRfKS4CyUDRFVEnwsDUP_v8GB2C6rAZKl0OKonaXz5A9tHNVgvl2WhGxytJbMcUnKqesAEVDHOQBlG3AjFeTnJungL6yw/s922/pv%20for%20part%202%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="895" data-original-width="922" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTacmOytPn2g6Vr2NWfZB7cwrr0X302HP5YUT7AqiXYvMB7JaDwpeSPAcaYUSLHZtDbn8mVp1brzd-eWXeLWLx1kTWXWtZYBRfKS4CyUDRFVEnwsDUP_v8GB2C6rAZKl0OKonaXz5A9tHNVgvl2WhGxytJbMcUnKqesAEVDHOQBlG3AjFeTnJungL6yw/s320/pv%20for%20part%202%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;">South</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigEQgP2R7vnVoGzzcZDxa7jhUdEyK-mXPUwQgzZ-CUKmSqHnQt8DmAxDTuNCAcVBGH-JXhgfRbGEggNBw-vzNyt3RDzjodJnYe-TP4M8neqT50kS6Fe0mTDKowtWtNuywLIBmNDGT_zaA6mojlowp4hrGacvVOwjkJsxxARJY1koA9XBunC_ofwOBVjg/s970/pv%20for%20part%202%203.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="949" data-original-width="970" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigEQgP2R7vnVoGzzcZDxa7jhUdEyK-mXPUwQgzZ-CUKmSqHnQt8DmAxDTuNCAcVBGH-JXhgfRbGEggNBw-vzNyt3RDzjodJnYe-TP4M8neqT50kS6Fe0mTDKowtWtNuywLIBmNDGT_zaA6mojlowp4hrGacvVOwjkJsxxARJY1koA9XBunC_ofwOBVjg/s320/pv%20for%20part%202%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhldNyPXa3iPQBttbFXzZfGY2m60ZIv2V53RN6378O7wRS0N0Bs0-idWiNOJ2Xws73p79DrX5vD6r-MUVYOiN-5E35LGWBSmj7_fV4DgM12-ltRRmbdva2YcwgiN-4uwZBQKI1_o-qtDJ6kQ5I5YbBY8feeLkxLhOsgELlQFVz9LuJq9p9CsVFD3nlK7w/s1004/pv%20for%20part%202%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="954" data-original-width="1004" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhldNyPXa3iPQBttbFXzZfGY2m60ZIv2V53RN6378O7wRS0N0Bs0-idWiNOJ2Xws73p79DrX5vD6r-MUVYOiN-5E35LGWBSmj7_fV4DgM12-ltRRmbdva2YcwgiN-4uwZBQKI1_o-qtDJ6kQ5I5YbBY8feeLkxLhOsgELlQFVz9LuJq9p9CsVFD3nlK7w/s320/pv%20for%20part%202%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Source Earth
Null School <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">As this
pattern continues, the Subtropical jet is going to be much more active for the
2022-2023 winter than is typical of a La Nina winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the Polar Jet being active and also
having an active Subtropical Jet; there is going to be increased chances for
phasing involving the Northern and Southern Jets. How this phasing comes about
will be determined by these winters storm tracks. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Other important
Teleconnections:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The Quasi
Biennial Oscillation (QBO):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The QBO
deals with the variation in wind flow in the lower stratosphere at the 30hPA <a name="_Hlk117607962">layer</a> above the equator. The QBO can influence weather
patterns across the globe. This alternating belt of strong stratospheric wind completely
changes direction right around every 14 months. So, the full cycle is roughly
28 months. When the winds are westerly (WQBO) the QBO is in its positive phase.
So, when they blow in the easterly (EQBO) direction the QBO is in its negative
phase. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The QBO has in influence on the strength
of the jet stream, polar vortex and the likelihood of high latitude blocking.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeYLHaGZGuSt-8KtQK-nXpl_eDV-_5EwEg9aZfb9PRmspkXHXKsR8EIuuxLxjsJfdP66u9vbQCm-Nn5UKoICEAbLsc0ULQCFd-JCt3fBtXeUlIXu49ZwaMjo_4CEcmfZwLwlWvMP_JXEtiY-bsRafZNvsPOXQv68t_-AY0Rr6ou80yKr0nOS8DcTg59Q/s800/qbo%20phase%203%20for%20part%202.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="618" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeYLHaGZGuSt-8KtQK-nXpl_eDV-_5EwEg9aZfb9PRmspkXHXKsR8EIuuxLxjsJfdP66u9vbQCm-Nn5UKoICEAbLsc0ULQCFd-JCt3fBtXeUlIXu49ZwaMjo_4CEcmfZwLwlWvMP_JXEtiY-bsRafZNvsPOXQv68t_-AY0Rr6ou80yKr0nOS8DcTg59Q/s320/qbo%20phase%203%20for%20part%202.gif" width="247" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">During the
positive phase winter temperatures across northern New York State into Northern
New England are more likely to be colder than average, with the Mid Atlantic
and New England likely to be drier than average. During the negative phase the
cold shifts south a bit; so Central and Southern New York State, Southern New
England, Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic to be cooler than average.
During the negative phase the entire Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic
tend to be drier than average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a
look at the QBO composites <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCG8YIB4M0SpGy-XbkFvuolXoyq8wtdq7yqM2X5CHhy1OT1Dz36Xh9t751YETqDYkwzRzjAox6qL9T5RuVgOFTWRstOOsXObVeB-7S6Tp_ID4utj6OK-NvhdOxbuSf3Cdzf4d8PyxlNBJMhZW7CLHncrO347Cs993GXBfQEHQhHWP1AryV_A-9ivZI8g/s898/qbo%20phase%204%20for%20part%20two.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="898" data-original-width="642" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCG8YIB4M0SpGy-XbkFvuolXoyq8wtdq7yqM2X5CHhy1OT1Dz36Xh9t751YETqDYkwzRzjAox6qL9T5RuVgOFTWRstOOsXObVeB-7S6Tp_ID4utj6OK-NvhdOxbuSf3Cdzf4d8PyxlNBJMhZW7CLHncrO347Cs993GXBfQEHQhHWP1AryV_A-9ivZI8g/s320/qbo%20phase%204%20for%20part%20two.jpg" width="229" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Source…Philly
Weather Authority <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Dec – Feb Temperature
and Precipitation anomaly probability maps.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Westerly QBO<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGzU8aX4fOApcUGLr8x1vnGY_ZmxdZOCq1Dfm_FoClABRpizcvVKOLziKYr76uxMRhkRYVOGf92ODzB3nVi4Yyd0HJP1hIjXaaP8OkR5U7vEJb6Q2VzrBpFtBI2_fxWVk30hpJ9HUfqfmCCJMpXZqM_cDw-MXwie2BDQGvapJIH3urL5obElMKuyR6bA/s775/qbo%20westerly%20phase%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="775" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGzU8aX4fOApcUGLr8x1vnGY_ZmxdZOCq1Dfm_FoClABRpizcvVKOLziKYr76uxMRhkRYVOGf92ODzB3nVi4Yyd0HJP1hIjXaaP8OkR5U7vEJb6Q2VzrBpFtBI2_fxWVk30hpJ9HUfqfmCCJMpXZqM_cDw-MXwie2BDQGvapJIH3urL5obElMKuyR6bA/s320/qbo%20westerly%20phase%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvnKfvBiWlpynzjenxae7h6rMY9qdpFtMPhUI7zNFtd_CkwV356T4pb-Hlq1S8gL-xGuNplMgUyOKLClPDYxZUv6AagyxFq5Iaol-6w-wUNb6WBVHj2R1s3FRmn1zuadG9xQyaFXlxiCcfIUrnJLaTCpK3LE-C1KJCsNfaMRL8_m4lLJ5bSR2RHyAhzA/s777/qbo%20westerly%20phase%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="777" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvnKfvBiWlpynzjenxae7h6rMY9qdpFtMPhUI7zNFtd_CkwV356T4pb-Hlq1S8gL-xGuNplMgUyOKLClPDYxZUv6AagyxFq5Iaol-6w-wUNb6WBVHj2R1s3FRmn1zuadG9xQyaFXlxiCcfIUrnJLaTCpK3LE-C1KJCsNfaMRL8_m4lLJ5bSR2RHyAhzA/s320/qbo%20westerly%20phase%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Source World
Climate Service<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Eastern QBO<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBnd2yALHmUFuQ5FPlxiLzwV8PNCHRshUUdnXWPawN17uNZzE27cYBjydxU5Uxf-tTesll1zyKqLzCDMxlSx-rqfLhVHQB6g0ZGXYa8U7CRXELKLHEgOPynho-XkD-DJkYUplxRCNxsWu-BAy3N0QpuIE8VNhvGAMB8vM8A2vxzXjaZUzlqR7Z2njSQ/s779/qbo%20easterly%20phase%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="779" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBnd2yALHmUFuQ5FPlxiLzwV8PNCHRshUUdnXWPawN17uNZzE27cYBjydxU5Uxf-tTesll1zyKqLzCDMxlSx-rqfLhVHQB6g0ZGXYa8U7CRXELKLHEgOPynho-XkD-DJkYUplxRCNxsWu-BAy3N0QpuIE8VNhvGAMB8vM8A2vxzXjaZUzlqR7Z2njSQ/s320/qbo%20easterly%20phase%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjibS6E_I3mVP9ZWJHPC63pcvSuJkwSO8OzrSU1x39irTI8zZzQT2rcyeBF0tYO9OAIW7H40k3PBUzycjKcoWi0HsMDCNFsy9PsDri8GjrkBWGWgwI60eIrMXSmcuiHnWXHsdqa6_zLFmYCq4RONU1PkWk2vwLbeh-vXNGg1M8OGC68GJssncRyFkiOsA/s774/qbo%20easterly%20phase%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="487" data-original-width="774" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjibS6E_I3mVP9ZWJHPC63pcvSuJkwSO8OzrSU1x39irTI8zZzQT2rcyeBF0tYO9OAIW7H40k3PBUzycjKcoWi0HsMDCNFsy9PsDri8GjrkBWGWgwI60eIrMXSmcuiHnWXHsdqa6_zLFmYCq4RONU1PkWk2vwLbeh-vXNGg1M8OGC68GJssncRyFkiOsA/s320/qbo%20easterly%20phase%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Source World
Climate Service<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Last winter
the QBO was negative; currently the QBO is in a positive phase. As of September,
the index was at +9.80. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiccnp9NmfWh8p3E8mTVGhGWj9W5Wn5dYS4B3iwbTvIR5QXPq6y9wElMnimzNycNK4eDETBTO7RJL9NYygI8SGtDSy2yRQuU912HTR5UBKQbjX2PR5SumWz4BDKUpxsynnx33D6sJV2h3W_rSC_HIULdZdw7TYV3Reoa9arK3R-3RZjfyVVmXK3hOB3vA/s1467/qbo%20phase%202%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="941" data-original-width="1467" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiccnp9NmfWh8p3E8mTVGhGWj9W5Wn5dYS4B3iwbTvIR5QXPq6y9wElMnimzNycNK4eDETBTO7RJL9NYygI8SGtDSy2yRQuU912HTR5UBKQbjX2PR5SumWz4BDKUpxsynnx33D6sJV2h3W_rSC_HIULdZdw7TYV3Reoa9arK3R-3RZjfyVVmXK3hOB3vA/s320/qbo%20phase%202%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">This year
has seen the upper atmospheric winds fairly weak. Could this have something to
do with the volcanic eruption back in January? Maybe. With this, it should lend
some support for high latitude blocking and a decent chance for some
stratospheric warming here in the Northern Hemisphere. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The AO is a
northern hemisphere circulation pattern that influences the position of the
northern jet stream. It also has some influence on the strength of the polar
jet as well as the strength of the Polar Vortex.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">During the
positive phase the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic Region generally see warmer
and more moderate winters. During a positive phase of the AO, the Polar Vortex
is generally strong.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;">During the negative
phase the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic Region generally see more in the
way of cold and stormy winters. During a negative phase of the AO, the Polar
Vortex is generally weaker.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtMNxqhhtaRXmUVDlZtQnYBtnQbwcSz0QP5fEl3j7_Nc_yIUmOIxeLh9rZi8FNNYvcgynsg8_zBRu8bOi9qgvfi6bWvRhplF_kAysk7ce9P4FJdzHA9Y3UsfbJ0VdZrB0ldXhRjt5ln0rFUChY3BsMev35h80MA1v0Cr--XQeZwTV9rTD-H1qI-DQE6g/s1000/AO%20for%20part%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="1000" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtMNxqhhtaRXmUVDlZtQnYBtnQbwcSz0QP5fEl3j7_Nc_yIUmOIxeLh9rZi8FNNYvcgynsg8_zBRu8bOi9qgvfi6bWvRhplF_kAysk7ce9P4FJdzHA9Y3UsfbJ0VdZrB0ldXhRjt5ln0rFUChY3BsMev35h80MA1v0Cr--XQeZwTV9rTD-H1qI-DQE6g/s320/AO%20for%20part%202.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The NAO deals
with the air pressure pattern between Greenland and the Azores. During the positive
phase, the CONUS generally sees a Zonal west-east flow, which typically keeps
the cold air bottled up in Canada; t</span><span style="font-size: 16pt;">his is generally because we see little high
latitude blocking during the positive phase of the NAO. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;">During the negative
phase, we generally see a lot of high latitude blocking over Greenland. The
blocking forces the Jet stream to buckle, bringing cold air outbreaks into the
Great Lakes and Northeast.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh69-r80xnQ8raPrpetsV8PVZQaW-QIzWKPUyrgoIl2rtZ7uHT7YbMw3vxmSt-dRpQ-zzOSCl1qxkRG1DVu4HYEq-gN1qBkQxFSyxSfzeBhRBa18MqvwO4HBzQDHlpzbQkE90Eq2Oad3oSoSqygMLDg-HnUzvOag6kxJzg3KM54F5Qat7pjf6t5fRRXbQ/s800/NAO%20for%20part%20two.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh69-r80xnQ8raPrpetsV8PVZQaW-QIzWKPUyrgoIl2rtZ7uHT7YbMw3vxmSt-dRpQ-zzOSCl1qxkRG1DVu4HYEq-gN1qBkQxFSyxSfzeBhRBa18MqvwO4HBzQDHlpzbQkE90Eq2Oad3oSoSqygMLDg-HnUzvOag6kxJzg3KM54F5Qat7pjf6t5fRRXbQ/s320/NAO%20for%20part%20two.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">When we see an
east based La Nina, typically we see a predominate negative AO and NAO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Pacific
North American Pattern (PNA):</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">When the PNA
is positive generally in Western Canada and the Western CONUS. it is warmer
than average and the Eastern CONUS. is colder than average, there is also a
tendency for the eastern CONUS to see below average precipitation as well. When
it’s negative, we see the opposite occur more times than not. Currently the PNA
is in a positive phase.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXgJkLXpQG5uIF0rwHUakNM2BpLvuSsYXIIrQ5C24DTN4WQHpx6Ro-BCo2f8QMEDKVdyIcu9kyQ5vX45xBHVvSdptkc3G0GggZ5i7kFqZbJOUBOH9LoElmgNJc20JjKQ_TNTXazd7R8HwVSG3Kftv7gi172qwaoZnzp486J8SDihu4RRS4Cu5mlDzUQ/s960/PNA%20positive%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="960" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXgJkLXpQG5uIF0rwHUakNM2BpLvuSsYXIIrQ5C24DTN4WQHpx6Ro-BCo2f8QMEDKVdyIcu9kyQ5vX45xBHVvSdptkc3G0GggZ5i7kFqZbJOUBOH9LoElmgNJc20JjKQ_TNTXazd7R8HwVSG3Kftv7gi172qwaoZnzp486J8SDihu4RRS4Cu5mlDzUQ/s320/PNA%20positive%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwXZkIhp1rnDTjmRpEgbjreSkFQF3mkRQlRreXcUxX83OJm4sZzDhBYu2oL_1Ya5TYgo2IoQm9dWe7pwQdIV1gJhaxmTz6uvQKe0IND8ZOBMtnydMUtzagdSuZQgSc5VP0qdEkY71PC2X-Hi7KFzfU3l_1b-0awkDsGxx4C6sTjLyQ2BRH1gzXC-3MQA/s959/PNA%20negative%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="959" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwXZkIhp1rnDTjmRpEgbjreSkFQF3mkRQlRreXcUxX83OJm4sZzDhBYu2oL_1Ya5TYgo2IoQm9dWe7pwQdIV1gJhaxmTz6uvQKe0IND8ZOBMtnydMUtzagdSuZQgSc5VP0qdEkY71PC2X-Hi7KFzfU3l_1b-0awkDsGxx4C6sTjLyQ2BRH1gzXC-3MQA/s320/PNA%20negative%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Courtesy of
the NWS Climate Prediction Center<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Given the
overall setup, I favor the idea of the PNA being primarily positive this
winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Eastern
Pacific Oscillation (EPO):<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The EPO
deals with the atmospheric flow pattern across the Eastern Pacific including
Alaska. In other words, the EPO is about the placement of the trough around the
Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska. During a positive EPO the trough is located
in the Central and Eastern Gulf of Alaska. As a result, we see strong Pacific
jet pushing in a mild north Pacific air flow pattern into the Western CONUS, as
this air flows over and down the Eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, it warms
up and dries out. This typically results in warmer than average temperatures
across the Central and Eastern CONUS. During a negative EPO the trough is
centered in the Aleutians into the Western Gulf of Alaska. This results in a ridge
over the Eastern Pacific off the West Coast. Because of the ridge, the western
flow of that mild Pacific air is diverted up toward Alaska. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Alaska warms, we see the cold Arctic air
displaced and forced to move down the western ridge into the Central CONUS. Because
of this the Plains and Great Lakes tend to be very cold, some of this cold
migrates East into the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So typically, our region tends to see colder
overall temperatures during a negative EPO. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAe-WFJuXY_8kAt34-AQCFFITBIQllwrRAkVGl5-j1YzmG043UPcv0Pmkyi8pf7AH2L6l1r1Hx2zAiWV8_irrivE_LDOZSgAJXEqu84wjEG8gxWheueUePdvgQzj6-Sj7aiEVqEt6VCkURnGh2n3QopVoshZ0CCQ2acqGW-7CXC-eHBIxf4m_GgBXMTQ/s647/Positive%20EPO%20pattern%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="647" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAe-WFJuXY_8kAt34-AQCFFITBIQllwrRAkVGl5-j1YzmG043UPcv0Pmkyi8pf7AH2L6l1r1Hx2zAiWV8_irrivE_LDOZSgAJXEqu84wjEG8gxWheueUePdvgQzj6-Sj7aiEVqEt6VCkURnGh2n3QopVoshZ0CCQ2acqGW-7CXC-eHBIxf4m_GgBXMTQ/s320/Positive%20EPO%20pattern%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI-WjLoLGrNdzUrm3Oz3As716VoMaMUurmvFI4Y1Tftql0K59W6iRxvQzYrhQi4Jz1gUUeWL1vLpHFbgOuDjnQXMNhCoWefihomvFHcgfwV4PVa--g2iZoUg1PlCRsyuTEZNAnhSeUCI54g0fLk5aXqtX9DoqNVrzGcfwXXpMvlyGZ_Nf-tWaUGbiYqA/s648/Negative%20EPO%20pattern%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="648" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI-WjLoLGrNdzUrm3Oz3As716VoMaMUurmvFI4Y1Tftql0K59W6iRxvQzYrhQi4Jz1gUUeWL1vLpHFbgOuDjnQXMNhCoWefihomvFHcgfwV4PVa--g2iZoUg1PlCRsyuTEZNAnhSeUCI54g0fLk5aXqtX9DoqNVrzGcfwXXpMvlyGZ_Nf-tWaUGbiYqA/s320/Negative%20EPO%20pattern%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt;">This winter
the EPO is going to be the composer, controlling how all these factors mesh.
Because the EPO has a major influence on storm tracks across North America.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Storm
Tracks:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">This winter’s
storm tracks will be based on the idea of moderate East Based La Nina that will
weaken as we get into Midwinter, this along with the pattern setup caused by a
positive PDO that interacts with a primarily negative AO and negative NAO and
the phase orientation of the EPO during the winter of 2022-2023. This will be
enhanced by the results of the Hunga Tonga Volcanic eruption making for a very
active subtropical jet, and the increased chances for higher latitude blocking
over Greenland due to the QBO. The type of storm and precipitation type will be
mainly determined by the phase of the EPO and NAO; these are variable and so we
will see a range in outcomes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">When the EPO
is positive, the pattern would favor a general storm track into the Great Lakes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A positive NAO would mean a lot of snow into
the Western Great Lakes. We would expect mixing over the interior parts of the
Northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes, with a quick change over to rain along
the coast. If the NAO is negative, The Northeast would expect to see a
substantial mixed precipitation type storm. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">When the EPO
is negative, the pattern would favor a general snowstorm in the Northeast and
Middle Atlantic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A positive NAO would mean
a less chance for phasing between the northern and southern jets, with a general
track farther from the coast, this would favor snow for interior New York State
and Pennsylvania, leaving the Middle Atlantic and New England more likely a
missing out on heavy snow. If the NAO is negative, The Northeast and Middle
Atlantic would expect to see a substantial winter storm, due to the high likelihood
of both jet streams phasing, with even the potential for a triple phase event.
A triple phase storm is when we see the subtropical Jet, the Pacific Jet and
the Polar Jet all phase. A true triple phase snowstorm is rare but when they occur,
they end up as monster snowstorms. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
pattern this year is going to favor the chance for Miller A and Miller B nor’easters.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWgSCeLnxzxX80PRpiUKZdwYeD75zgY7FNuh__K1eeBHvH1vZuLIIQMGwNOEgD3NfTgekkqtEv9954FYuaGnUaGNhEx65fGQ3VPbtHBzYeZh0tngqs_Fw6WfocTJgpJlKQrQKAOXPNdmfJkAZ3PWxnXSddsMADzb3vRq6iWSsRW1X12IFY9O3cMmbYBw/s869/triple%20phase%20for%20part%202.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="869" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWgSCeLnxzxX80PRpiUKZdwYeD75zgY7FNuh__K1eeBHvH1vZuLIIQMGwNOEgD3NfTgekkqtEv9954FYuaGnUaGNhEx65fGQ3VPbtHBzYeZh0tngqs_Fw6WfocTJgpJlKQrQKAOXPNdmfJkAZ3PWxnXSddsMADzb3vRq6iWSsRW1X12IFY9O3cMmbYBw/s320/triple%20phase%20for%20part%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/01/types-of-winter-storms-that-impact.html">Types of winter storms link</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Polar
Vortex:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">As I showed
earlier the Polar Vortex has been very disrupted and fairly weak. Now while the
Polar Vortex is strengthening as it should be at this time of year. But given
the factors I went over; I don’t see the Polar Vortex becoming strong this
winter. So it will be easier for the vortex to elongate and split. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Analogues:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">1908-1909,
1938-1939, 1984-1985, 1990-1991, 1995-1996, 2005-2006, 2010-2011, 2013-2014.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">These
analogues are based on winters that had a positive PDO with an East based La Nina,
had similar SST pattern, and a cool southern hemisphere.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk0Nt7Ex9xB0Sqs8txqxr3PEpeBV0WHxB_JHNsvp6G7WqgOLCLOBF8qjRfDxL_G9qK7NSNw-KzzabaPF7-ofNSJ5ve7xuTouGa8Lv75Eg5cyXoVFjdmeyPpV4iFXOTW394FecN0f7lw5J3tRiQ-k1kYcQJotO2zWVCDv3VtSJNXWp6iown0TijHo5b1w/s556/part%202%20analogues%20dec%20to%20feb%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="556" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk0Nt7Ex9xB0Sqs8txqxr3PEpeBV0WHxB_JHNsvp6G7WqgOLCLOBF8qjRfDxL_G9qK7NSNw-KzzabaPF7-ofNSJ5ve7xuTouGa8Lv75Eg5cyXoVFjdmeyPpV4iFXOTW394FecN0f7lw5J3tRiQ-k1kYcQJotO2zWVCDv3VtSJNXWp6iown0TijHo5b1w/s320/part%202%20analogues%20dec%20to%20feb%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion:
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">In part one
I discussed how December and January look to be active and wintery. I still believe
this to be the case. It is unclear how the end of February into March will act
due to the weakening La Nina.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">I believe the
polar vortex will be weak and will have the potential to be disrupted several
times. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">The
subtropical jet is going to stay active right through the winter, which is something
we don’t typically see during a La Nina winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Based on the
analysis so far, I think this winter will end up colder overall than I
indicated it would be in part one. The pattern is looking to be very active
with the chance for several cold outbreaks. The pattern should produce several opportunities
storm tracks near and offshore, with the idea of prevalent blocking over Greenland
due to a general negative NAO, the chance for these storms phasing will be
rather high. As for the Lower Great Lakes, this looks to be an active lake
effect snow winter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Eastern Long
Island along the Connecticut Coast into Rhode Island, look to see near average
temperatures, and average snowfall. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">For Maryland,
the major Cities along the I-95 Corridor, Eastern Long Island, Southeastern
Massachusetts including Boston will see average to slightly above average
snowfall with overall temperatures ending up around average. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">For much of
the rest of the interior Pennsylvania, New York State and New England,
generally below average overall temperatures with snowfall ending up above
average. This is looking to be a good Lake effect snow winter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that’s
it. I will be releasing part three end of November into the first week of December.
Part three will cover the overall trend that has been occurring since part two
was released, and will attempt to narrow things down a bit more. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Rebeccahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04718708785635820652noreply@blogger.com0