I issued my
early winter outlook quite some time ago.
I've never issued a winter outlook
that early before. My outlook for winter
2015-2016 was just about dead-on. One issue last winter was the near record El
Nino overriding most of the teleconnections.
Many of the factors from last year are still with us...but one major one
is gone, El Nino. Winter 2016-2017 will feature a El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral ,
to weak La Nina. Therefore the other teleconnections and indicators won't be
washed out.
The PDO is
going to be warm. So this will allow for the western ridge and the eastern
trough This was the same type of setup we saw in 2013 and 2014. For the first 10 days of October we saw a rapid expansion of Eurasia
snow cover. If this rate continues for the last half of October, this would be
a sign for a cold Northeast winter.
Snow cover in Eurasia and Canada is a
little above average for this point in October. What I look for is the expansion
rate below the 60 degree mark. comparing 2015 and 2016 you can see there is a
lot more snow south of the 60 degree than last year at this time. The faster the expansion the colder the winter should be in the Northeast. I
expect to see snow cover in Eurasia, Russia, and Canada to increase a lot over
the next four weeks.
Here is the
Euro Ensemble showing what it thinks snowfall will look like by
Thanksgiving. it does show quite a bit
for northern New York and northern New England....but remember the chart shows
total snow falling by that date.... not snow depth on the ground....snow will
come and go....but to see this much snow falling in November is above
average. So we could see a couple of
storms in November.
Over the
last 10 years, the Northeast and Mid Atlantic has seen a large uptick from the
impacts of major snowstorms. Here is a chart that shows how the snowstorm
frequency is increasing. There is also a chart by Joe D'aleo that shows almost
half of the major storms to impact the Northeast and Mid Atlantic have occurred
during the last 10 years.
Weak La'nina
winters tend to see above average upstream blocking, So the storm tracks shift
south placing the Northeast into the Mid Atlantic in the cross-hairs for big
snowstorms.
There hasn't
been any change in my thinking from the early 2016-2017 outlook I posted.
Analog
years: are still 1958-1959,1959,1960, 1960-1961,1962-1963 1977-1978,1981-1982, 1984-1985,1993-1994,1995-1995,1996-1997,2000-2001,2013-2014,
2014-2015.
The top five
are.....1962-1963, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2013-2014,2014-2015.
This
upcoming winter should be quite cold. My winter analogs are colder than my
forecast, this is due to the warm Atlantic. This winter should shape up like
the cold winters of 2013-2014 and 2014 and 2015.
The warm
waters off the Northwest Coast into the Gulf of Alaska will be the major driver
for this winter season
That warm
Atlantic will hold winter at bay for the first part of winter. As I've been
saying for a long time, October is going to be well above average in
temperatures....November will be above average as well, I do expect to see a few
snow events in November, but nothing lasting.
One thing seems evident to me, we're going to see an abrupt change to
winter this season. I'm not sure when this will happen. For this reason December is tricky. Those warm Atlantic SST
could cause issues. But, a big part of December into the first half of January could quite
cold.....I think December will end up with overall temperatures being below average.
With the cold building in for January, February, and March.
As we've
seen this Summer (which was exactly like I said it would be...hot and dry) The warm
Atlantic helps promote a eastern ridge in the Summer. This same thing will be
the case for October and November. But after awhile the warm Atlantic becomes our
winter friend.....the warm Atlantic should help lend moisture and warmth to
promote quite a few storms. With the
cold in the Midwest into the Northeast....we should be ground zero for the
battleground between the two. So if we can get some decent blocking from time
to time.....we could see a few severe Nor'easters. Often during a weak La Nina, the Southeast
U.S. sees a warmer winter, due to some ridging. So I don't think the eastern trough will be as deep
as we saw in 2014-2015. So while cold, we most likely won't be
quite as cold overall, as we were in 2014 and 2015. The blocking this year most
likely won't be locked in; so location of the block will determine when we see
warm ups and cool downs.
This is
going to be a big lake effect winter...I expect well above average lake snows
this season...Of course, lake effect is dependent on wind direction, so not all
areas in the lake snow belts will see well above average snow amounts....but
the lake snow regions will see heavy snow on average. We most likely will see some big lake events
earlier in the season.
There are no changes to the charts I posted in the earlier outlook.........
