Extreme Weather Hype

This is a blog post dealing with weather hyperbole. While it deals with a meteorological subject, it is an option piece based on my personal views.  

 

Everywhere I look I see references to extreme global events.  The main stream media and even several weather sites are IMO hyping global weather events. The heat waves, droughts, flood, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, ocean temperatures. They say the snow and ice melt have never been worse than they are right now. The same sources promote the idea that things will even get worse as we move forward. The reason that they cite for all of this is human-driven climate change.

Before I get into my thoughts. I want to state up front, that I'm not a proponent on the idea of humankind being the prime driver of climate change.  I'm a firm believer in natural processes and cyclical oscillation as the driving factors behind the weather we experience.  I'm not saying people don't have an impact, because we do. And it's a big impact. But natural processes make by far a much bigger impact. The Earth's climate has always changed and forever will: with humankind or without humankind.  But this post isn't really about climate change; it's about extreme weather; I just wanted to put my bias out there.

We hear the term extreme weather all the time. This storm or that storm is always the worst that can happen. The Weather Channel (TWC) has been naming winter storms. We often hear main stream media quoting insane statistics; or saying how many millions of people are going to be impacted by this or that event. The statistics can often be true. But that is in the eye of the beholder.  They can say that this storm or that storm is the worst one since 2012. Yes in context it's the worst storm, but only since 2012, it's not the worst storm ever in the history of humankind.     IMO it is a tactic used to bring eyes and ears to a certain outlet. But many outlets go beyond just hyping or overplaying a particular weather event. These outlets make it more of a scare-fest. Hurricanes and winter storms are the two things that are hyped the most.  We hear words, like historic, paralyzing, catastrophic, crippling, epic, and disastrous all the time.

As of this writhing, I think Hurricane Lane in the Pacific is a good example of what I'm talking about.  (I wrote this part of the post when hurricane Lane was impacting Hawaii).

 Hurricane Lane  was and still is a slow mover and has brought lots of rain to the big island and some of the other islands in the Hawaiian chain. But as far as hurricane winds it was never going to be that big of a deal. The setup in the Pacific was always going to make a direct landfall on the Hawaiian Islands a very long shot.  The pressures inside the of Lane had been steadily rising for over the 24 hours before he got close to the Hawaiian Islands.. That is surely a sign of a hurricane that is losing its battle.

 Lane was always going to move into an area of high wind shear. It is also a well known fact that that wind shear would blow the top of Lane away from the low level circulation. It rapidly intensified and it also rapidly abated. Again this was an outcome that was always most likely. The NHC and the Central Hurricane Center had Lane's track too far north, but they still had a fairly good handle on the track of the hurricane; but IMO, they didn't have as good a handle on the strength forecast for Lane. That is not a criticism, as track and strength in a tropical cyclone can be a hard variable to get a handle on.  Tropical rainfall is always the number one danger with tropical cyclones. And that is a serious danger.  Because of his slow movement, he dropped a lot of rain on some parts of the island chain.

 I'm not trying to downplay flooding issues with hurricane Lane. But we have to keep things in perspective. The Hawaiian Islands are in the tropics with very high terrain. The islands do have low elevation and high elevation rain forest. So rain and a lot of it is the norm. Parts of the Hawaiian Islands are in the top ten rainiest spots on Earth. Four feet of rain in a few days is a lot, no matter where you're at. But Hawaii isn't Houston, Texas.  Houston average annual rainfall is close to 50 inches.  Hurricane Harvey brought over 40 inches of rain to Houston with rainfall amounts of around 60 inches northeast of the City. The historic rainfall brought widespread flooding.  Hurricane Lane dropped 40-50 inches of rain across east Hawaii. That is enough to make it the third highest rainfall in the U.S. caused by a tropical cyclone since 1950. Lane did indeed cause flash flooding; But going back to that perspective idea, parts of the Hawaiian Islands see over 400 inches of rain on average annually, which means some years see a lot more than 400 inches a year. So while the Houston area saw around 100% of their annual rainfall from Harvey, Hawaii only saw around 10% of theirs from Lane. So it doesn't have the same meaning. But that be as it may.....The meteorology side of all this has overall basically been well handled.  But the way the news outlets and TWC have been reporting on Lane has been an issue, at least IMO.

 

Dan Kottlowski, Hurricane Expert at "AccuWeather" said: "Lane has the potential of bringing the state of Hawaii serious and perhaps record damage".

 "The Weather Channel" Meteorologist and director of weather presentation, Mike Chesterfield said: "For the record, hurricane force winds for Oahu would be disastrous. Unfortunately the worst case scenario is still on the table".

 "Fox News" Meteorologist, Janice Deah said: "Hurricane Lane is the Closest a storm of this strength has been to Hawaii in recorded history. It could cause catastrophic damage"

There are many other examples I can post.  

 

This same approach is brought to bear for winter storms. During the winter we hear about the Polar Vortex, bomb cyclones,  Bombogenesis,  and explosive cyclogenesis. These are valid terms that describe meteorological concepts. But the way they are used by the media is anything but.    It seems every snowstorm is going to be a history maker, every cold snap is given the impression of becoming the next ice age.  Snowstorms have to have sic names like "Snowmageddon", "snowpocalypse", "snowquester",  and "Snowtober"  Winter storm Juno, was initially described as going to be the biggest snowstorm in New York City history.

Back in 2015 winter storm Juno was dubbed to one of the worst blizzards to ever hit the East Coast and was going to be the worst winter storm to ever hit New York City. The headlines during the days leading up to the blizzard were dire and menacing . People panicked, grocery stores and home improvement stores were left with bare shelves. Schools and work places closed, even in areas that ended up not seeing much in the way of snow. Subways were shutdown, driving bans were put in place well ahead of the storm. But the storm tracked well east; so the impact wasn't nowhere near as bad as the media had insinuated.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to minimize the impacts Juno caused, while those in New York City, Philadelphia, and New Jersey didn't see a lot of snow, parts of New England did end up with moderate to heavy snow. So it did have an impact just not the one that it was hyped to be.    We saw a lot of hype when the Northeast saw four nor'easters in a row during the winter of 2017-2018. There are many other examples I can show.  

What I just posted are facts, we can debate the reasons all of these measures and things were done and said. But we can't dispute the facts. I've had discussions about all of this with many people, the reasons many give all of this is to make people pay attention in order to save lives. They admit to the hype, but no one wants to  repeat a disaster like Katrina; so hyperbole can be overlooked and justified.  I understand the concept but don't agree with the method. It's not like the places hyped for hurricanes or snowstorms haven't had them before. Many times the storms in the past have been far worse than the ones hyped. I mean hurricanes have hit Hawaii and the Gulf and East Coast before...Snowstorms and blizzards have hit the Middle Atlantic and Northeast before, so these things are hardly new concepts. Talking and warning of storms is one thing, but every season the storm hype gets more and more exaggerated; this or that has never happened before, nothing has been this extreme before.   In my option, the media is able to do this because most people don't understand the difference between weather and climate. So hypesters are able to use one to dramatize the other, But take it from me weather isn't climate, and climate isn't weather. 

The scare-fest used by the media and even some weather outlets is a huge problem. Some of these outlets might be trying to impress the potential danger of a storm. But I don't think the ends justify the means. Instead of making people more aware and safe, after awhile it has the exact opposite effect. The cry wolf falls onto deaf ears. When I was chasing tornadoes I saw how hype and over-warning leads to deaths.  Often it's not what is said, but how it's implied. This is a much bigger problem than many people think. When people say "here we go again", or "I don't believe it"  forecasters have lost the argument.  The cry wolf hype, instead makes them stay home and watch the "Wheel Of Fortune".  We have multi layers to the warning side of weather forecasting...but the weak link in the warning process is public education and perception. This is a pet peeve of mine, and why I post in this blog and on my Facebook weather pages; I try to promote understanding, awareness and education in all of this, in a way people can truly understand. 

The news media, both local and large scale has the same problem. Station managers and corporate executives. They have business degrees, but don't have any idea how weather truly works. So everything comes down to the bottom line of viewers and money. The bigger the storm the greater the opportunity to get eyes and ears on a particular outlet. All these outlets have to compete with each other. So the weather hype gets worse and worse as they fight for likes, and views.   Some have told me " I was all prepared, I'm happy things turned out fine, at least I got a couple of days off". But most don't have this attitude, instead they get angry.  When municipalities over prepare for a storm that didn't occur it can cost millions of dollars. When people aren't working employers and companies loose lots of money in lost revenue and no production.  IMO, all of this is a huge deal. Hype is a real problem that leads to loss of life and cost millions of dollars. People hype weather because it brings views to their site or outlet.  The problem gets worse and worse. It's a big problem that I don't know how to fix.

 

 

Why I think a Modoki El Nino is developing.

This will be a quick post showing why I think we're on the cusp of a Modoki El Nino. I've made several slides showing how things currently look and how they have been evolving over the last few months. This will dovetail with my post dealing with my preliminary thoughts on winter 2018-2019. Here are links to them if you want to read them.

Part one 

Part two

The El Nino Southern Oscillation covers a large part of the Pacific equatorial region. It deals with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. The area  is divided into four regions.  Nino Regions 1+2 is located in the East Pacific right next to South America, Nino regions 3, 3.4, and 4 sit west of there. The ENSO has two phases, one is called El Nino the other is called La Nina.  El Nino is when Oceanic Nino Index values are greater than or equal to a positive 0.5 C. La Nina is the exact opposite characterized by a ONI less than or equal to negative 0.5 C.

 

There are two types of El Nino: The most common is the classic east based El Nino. Less common is the central based Modoki El Nino. Both of these have an impact on our weather here in the Northeast. I describe how they influence our weather take a look at my preliminary thoughts on winter 2018-2019.  

Why I think an El Nino Modoki is about to occur:

Like most weather outlets I show a lot of images  of surface based SST anomalies. Here is a look at the global SST from Tropical Tidbits.

Here is a look at subsurface SST and other charts showing El Nino data.

 

We've been seeing a lot of changes in SST's in the Atlantic. This is something I've been talking a lot about on my Facebook weather pages; you can find my Facebook page here. Well the Pacific has also been seeing a lot of changes over the last 4 weeks. Looking at the subsurface SST we can see how the water temperatures have migrated from the East Pacific to the Central Pacific.  When we look at the Temperature anomaly chart showing each individual region. We can see Nino region 4 has had above average SST since late April. Nino region 3.4 has been slightly above average for the last 8 weeks or so. Region 3 had above average SST but has cooled and even dropped slightly into the below average range for a week or so, before going back into above average anomalies.  Region 1+2 has been below average since February. But recently it has risen slightly above average.   This could be why some outlets have been confused or hesitant to talk about the Modoki we should see this Fall.

To clear up the confusion we have to once again look at the subsurface SST anomaly charts.  Those red blobs are showing where temperatures are the warmest. The dark red areas are around 3 degrees C above average. Comparing the two subsurface charts we can see how warmest water temperatures were close to Nino region 1+2 and were very close to the surface. But since then this area has cooled while at the same time region 4 has warmed a lot.  The warm blogs in region 4 and 3.4 are below the surface but these should migrate upward and warm the surface even more.  The East Pacific should continue to cool.  This set up would lead to a  Modoki El Nino. We should also see the temperature spike in Nino regions 3 and 1+2 go back below average. We are getting close to the temperature anomaly pattern that should become a Modoki El Nino this Fall, this should extend into and through winter 2018-2019.

Anyway, this is why I'm so animate that we will see a Modoki El Nino.


    

Winter 2018 2019 Preliminary Outlook Part 2

A couple of weeks ago, I posted on my Facebook weather pages, dealing with my preliminary outlook and why my outlook is so different from so many others. I received flak for that post....and I most likely will receive some because of this post. But that goes with the territory and I'm used to it.

Winter-2018-2019-preliminary-thoughts

Preliminary thoughts for winter 2018-2019 part 3  

This post will add to the preliminary outlook, showing more of my thinking and what the pattern looks like right now, and seems to be heading.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

 

 

Images from Tropical Tidbits:

 

 

ENSO 4 is starting to get very warm. The ENSO 1+2 is still cooling. This puts more credence into my idea of a Modoki El Nino will be in place later this fall and winter. As I've been saying for a long time, the odds favor a weak El Nino event. The warmth should start to extend into ENSO 3.4 at some point. But there is a chance El Nino doesn't form, meaning we would see El Nino neutral conditions. Typically we see a more active southern sub-tropical jet during a El Nino Modoki than we do during a regular El Nino. The added lift the Modoki adds to the jet pattern, does increase the odds somewhat for East Coast storms.

I've said repeatedly there are different flavors of El Nino's and no two are exactly alike. I've also said, there are big differences between a normal El Nino and an El Nino Modoki. But on average this is how they work out.

Other Teleconnections:

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

January to July the QBO was strongly negative (east based). If this continues into winter it's a good indication for a colder than average December - February. 

When the QBO is easterly, the northern jet is typically weaker; This increases the odds of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)events to occur. When we have a SSW event the polar Jet often weakens (this jet is often called the polar vortex); this leads to the likelihood of cold polar air to break off and spiral southward into the Midwest and Northeast. An easterly QBO increases the odds for more frequent negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) outbreaks which further increases the odds for a colder than average December through February.  There is a strong correlation between a weak/neutral ENSO and an east based QBO to colder winters here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. 

A negative factor for cold this upcoming winter will be the fact that we look to have an east based QBO with an El Nino.  El Nino's tend to negate the influence from the QBO. But this being a Modoki El Nino it will help offset that impact somewhat.  

Here is an image that shows how we fair during a normal and Modoki El Nino event. I also show how east based QBO of various strengths impact the region.

 

 

 

 

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO):

The AO measures the differences in atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. As all oscillations it has a positive and a negative phase. In the positive phase arctic air on average stays locked up to the north. Whereas the negative phase on average sees a greater likelihood of more cold arctic outbreaks. In this regard it would work with the Modoki El Nino and QBO helping to up the odds for a colder winter.

Pacific warm spot:

We have that blob of warm SST south of Alaska. This is a good sign that we will see upper level ridging develop in western Canada. This would also up the odds for colder air in Siberia and northern Canada to flow downstream along the trough that extends eastward.  How far eastward is one of my biggest question marks right now. One other thing about Modoki El Nino's is they also help punch that upper level ridge pattern over the West Coast. 

Sunspots:

It's been awhile since I've talked about solar activity and its impact on global weather.  But as I've said before, the sun and solar activity do play a big role in terrestrial weather and climate. There is correlation between low solar activity and upper latitude blocking near Greenland and Iceland.  Given that we're heading into the minimum  those odds do increase. The last time we were in a  solar minimum phase was 2007 to 2009.  The winter of 2009-2010 also had a somewhat moderate El Nino. That winter saw a lot of cold and snow in the Mid Atlantic Region. 

 

Great Lakes:

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are very warm. Lake Surface temperatures are in the 70's. This will play a role in the upcoming winter as well, especially during the first half of winter as cold air moves over those warm lake waters.

Atlantic Mult-decadial Oscillation (AMO): 

I've been talking a lot about the AMO. I do believe the pattern in the North Atlantic is showing a change occurring in the AMO. This cool ring in the northern Atlantic is further evidence for a cooler winter for the East Coast along with Europe.  The increasing snowpack over Greenland and those cold SST in the far northern Atlantic are a sign that the AMO is switching from a positive AMO to a negative AMO. If this is indeed the case; we could be on the cusp for many colder winters in the years ahead.

As a side note the winter of 2002-2003 is one of my analog years. Right now, the pattern is closely matching up with that winter. If this continues it could mean a bit of warmth during December. But 1977-1978 was another analog, that stayed cold from November to March....so we will see.  

Remember this isn't a real outlook/forecast. This is only where my thoughts are right now and some of the things I'm looking at and considering as we move along. it is all subject to change as things evolve and the pattern adjust. But I think October will see a big turn toward cooler weather, with perhaps many of us seeing our first snows of the season. 

I will stop here; but I will in all probability release one more post dealing with more signals on where we are heading and how I think that will work out, before I release my 2nd winter outlook for the winter of 2018-2019. I still plan on releasing my final winter outlook end of October or the first part of November.   


 

Northeast tornadoes in 2018

By the numbers:

During an average year the United States averages 1,224 tornadoes. The number of reported U.S. tornadoes so far in 2018 is well below average. Looking at the trend and percentile chart shows we're far below the 25th percentile; we're also virtually tied with 2005. 2005 holds the modern record for having the least number of tornadoes.

 

 

 

 

While most of the Contiguous United States is well below average, the Northeast is not. Why is that?

The same pattern that is responsible for all the rain this Summer, is to blame for the increased tornado activity.  We've had a persistent Upper Level  Low (ULL) and a strong Bermuda High in the Atlantic .  The Anticlockwise flow around the ULL and the clockwise flow around the Atlantic high has streamed a lot of heat and humidity northward into the Northeast. This has resulted in a lot of severe weather and flooding caused by torrential rainfall.  

New England has seen more than a dozen tornadoes this year. And while New York State and Pennsylvania are average to slightly below average, the trend has been above average by this time of year.  New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware haven't seen any so far.  Here are a couple of charts I made. One shows the number of tornadoes in the Northeast to date (these are the ones that I know of and can verify). The other shows the annual number of tornadoes per state based on an average from 1950-2010. It's easy to see New England is well above that average.  

 

 

 

Thunderstorms:  

Thunderstorms need 3 basic things to form. The first is moisture in the lower and middle atmosphere.  The second is instability, Warm air at the surface with cooler drier air aloft is the key for instability to develop. The warmer the surface air the greater the instability.  The third thing is lift. Lift is something that causes the warm moist air to rise in the form of an updraft. Differential heating (The Sun heating the ground and air close to the surface) is the most common way for lift to develop; but it can be caused by fronts, sea/lake breezes, outflow boundaries from earlier storms, a dryline can also be a source of lifting air aloft.  The hot moist southern air and the constant influx of frontal systems moving through has produced the perfect conditions for thunderstorms and severe weather.

Severe thunderstorms generally need a 4th ingredient. Winds moving indifferent directions and speeds with height.  This is called wind shear.  Storms can create vertical and horizontal shear, as can other things.  There are many forms of severe weather; but the kind that gets the most attention is tornadoes. The wind shear that causes supercells and tornadoes normally comes from the jet stream.  

The Jet Stream:   

The jet stream is a ribbon of high-speed wind (located at nearly 6 miles above the surface) that is related to the location, of the pole-to-equator temperature contrast. The greater the temperature difference between the air masses the faster the jet stream.

Most of the tornadoes in the CONUS form in the Plains (Tornado Alley) or in the deep south (Dixie Alley).  Normally the position of the Jet Stream is the reason for this. But this year we've see the Jet Stream much farther north. This has made it difficult for storm systems to tap into that moist warm air from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).  This year we've seen the jet primarily over the Mid west or near the Canadian border; this has allowed the southern heat and moisture to move into the Northeast.  The overlap of the warm moist air and the Jet Stream nearby has provided the most favorable conditions for tornadoes to develop in the Northeast this year.

While increased awareness and platforms like social media can be attributed to some of this increase in reported tornadoes; the vast majority of the increased number of Northeast tornadoes can be blamed on the position of the Jet Stream.  

Winter 2018 2019 preliminary thoughts.

These are just my detailed preliminary thoughts on winter 2018-2019, everything is subject to change. But If I didn't think what I talk about was likely I wouldn't post it.

I talk a lot about the teleconnections and oscillations in the Atlantic and North Pacific, but seldom about the oscillations in the South Pacific. If we look to the South Pacific, oscillations and pressure patterns suggest if an El Nino forms this year, it will be most likely a Central Pacific (Modoki) event. I've been talking about the Modoki for quite some time. I've showed other data on my Facebook weather pages. But I want to show something new here.

Education on a new teleconnection/oscillation.

The South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) has a impact on if an El Niño will be East Based or Central Based.

Here are some images showing how the SPO works. Positive (negative) values of SLP anomalies denoted by red (blue) solid (dashed) contours. Warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are in yellows and reds while colder than average SSTs are in blues.

 

 

The two centers of the SPO represent different physical processes in the Southern Hemisphere climate system. For this post, we will concentrate on  the northern part of the SPO (Off the west coast of South America). This deals with changes in the strength of the South Pacific subtropical high, a semi-permanent area of high pressure in the South Pacific, similar to the Bermuda High in the Atlantic . This high pressure center provides much of western South America with a mild and relatively dry climate, much like the climate of coastal California, which is also controlled by a subtropical high.

The negative departures from average (dashed blue contours in the image above) indicate a weaker-than-normal subtropical high, meaning a weakening of the southeasterly trade winds. This leads to  subsurface cooler water coming up to the surface (upwelling) in the tropical Pacific, and warmer-than-average SSTs appear (shaded contours in the image above). The SPO is well correlated with tropical Pacific SST anomalies, which is the first clue that this pattern is important for ENSO development. The SPO is most active during the winter months, which for the Southern Hemisphere is June – August (JJA)

Now let’s consider the evolution and development of our coming El Niño event. The slightly warmer than average SSTs anomalies are already present in the central tropical Pacific. For development of our possible El Nino to continue, we have to warm the tropical Pacific even more. This year we've had strong easterly trade winds across the Atlantic into the Pacific. This has caused the warmer water to pile up in the western Pacific. For an El Nino, the warm  SSTs in the western Pacific have to build eastward and amplify.   This eastward propagation (movement) of anomalies is driven by westerly winds and the formation of Kelvin waves in the ocean in the eastern tropical Pacific, thus allowing waters to get warmer there. We have warmer than average water just under the surface in the tropical Pacific. As the easterly trades relax, those westerly winds will help upwell these warmer waters to the surface.

Pacific Oceanic Kelvin Waves work like this,  warm water from the western Pacific moves east and over the top of the cooler water in the central and eastern Pacific.  The warmer SST's will continue to surge eastward, while the colder SST under the surface will surge westward. The Kelvin Wave will slosh back and forth.   A Kelvin Wave  isn't a surface wave, instead it is a deepening of the mixing layer, the boundary between the warm and cold water.  

 

Since the SPO modulates the strength of the South Pacific trade winds in the eastern tropical Pacific, and it is most active during JJA, the phase and magnitude of the SPO can either help or hurt those Kelvin waves and the winds during the critical growth phase for ENSO. If the SPO is in the positive phase ,  a weaker South Pacific subtropical high is in place, then the southeasterly trade winds weaken, which reduces the cold-water upwelling in the eastern tropical Pacific and allows for easier eastward propagation of the warm waters from the central tropical Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific. However, if the SPO is in the negative phase (i.e., a stronger South Pacific subtropical high), then the southeasterly trade winds intensify, and the cold-water upwelling in the eastern tropical Pacific also increases. These two factors create an environment hostile for eastward expansion of the warm waters. Thus, the warm SST anomalies tend to remain in the central tropical Pacific.

 

A  strongly positive SPO during JJA means that the event will likely be a strong/ East Pacific El Nino.

 

A near-neutral or negative SPO during JJA means that the event will likely be a weak/CP El Nino.

 

The SPO has been  slightly negative. This goes along with my idea of an El Nino Modoki setting up for Fall into Winter 2018-2019. IMO, we should see a lot more in the way of warming in the Nino 3.4 region (Central Pacific) over the next 30-40 days.

 

The factors that look to shape this coming winter: We have very cold SSTs around Greenland, which has contributed to above average snowfall for this time of year over Greenland. The ENSO in the Pacific is in a neutral mode. We look to have a predominate positive PNA. We also have a negative (cold) AMO, this will most likely carry on through winter 2018-2019.

So I tried to find sensible analog years. The years I've been playing with are: 1957-1958, 1977-1978 1994-1995, 2002-2003, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, 2014-2015. Many of these years saw a lot of Greenland Blocking; but, high latitude blocking over Greenland is going to be a big question mark. Those cold SST in the northern Atlantic could make high latitude blocking more difficult to form than normal. But there are other factors that improve the likelihood of high latitude blocking; I will touch on some of those in my next update.

Based on what I see right now:

As we move into Fall and Winter we should see ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and over the West Coast and Western Canada. We should see a trough undercutting to the east over Eastern Canada, Great Lakes, into the East Coast.

Based on the current trend and available data, It appears that this December through February  will be overall cold in the Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Northeast.  Those in western New York State, Pennsylvania, the Middle- Atlantic, could see well below average temperatures. The rest of the Northeast would still see below average temperatures. 

 

As for precipitation  eastern (especially Southeast) Pennsylvania, Middle-Atlantic, and Southern New England would see overall precipitation well above average. The rest of Pennsylvania, much of New York State and Central into Southern New England would see above average precipitation.  Northern New York State , Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, and Southern Maine would see average precipitation, while Northern Maine would see below average precipitation.

These precipitation and temperature maps don't show a plus or minus numbers, only above or below chances. It is simply too early to show more detail.  

Remember, This isn't really a forecast, just my first thoughts on what looks to be shaping up. This could and very well might change at least somewhat as we get closer. I will post updates to this as we get into Fall. But this should give you an idea of where things are going.

Part 2 of this preliminary outlook.

Part 3 of this preliminary outlook.