07/02/2025

 

We can see in the surface chart The cold front is slowly pushing east, with the bulk of the rain Off the coast. 

Satellite shows skies clearing and dry air Fire air working in west to east behind the front. Where is the hot and humid air Pushing off the coast tonight will be much more comfortable than it was last night. On the continental satellite image We can see the disturbance over the Plains that will be moving through our region tomorrow into Thursday.

Tomorrow We're going to have a shortwave drop in out over the great lakes ahead of an approaching cold front Ahead of the cold front we're going to see warmer temperatures and higher humidity  move in on a southwest flow. Isolated rain shower Western New York state into northwest Pennsylvania Tomorrow morning. This will head  east during the morning into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving towards and into central New York state and central Pennsylvania as we had towards noon. During the afternoon rain and thunderstorms will become scattered. There will be isolated thunderstorms that become strong too severe The main danger is going to be strong damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. Here is a look at the day 2 convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC). It shows much of the region under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The SPC does have a slight risk over southwest New York State part of eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England and New Jersey. 

Later in the day on Thursday and to Thursday evening as the storms drop south and east out of New York State and Pennsylvania heading for the I-95 corridor And the northern Middle Atlantic they should be weakening. There still could be  strong possibly severe storms but they shouldn't be nearly as widespread as you were on Monday and Tuesday. 

The front will push the hot and humid weather out here for July 4th. We should have plenty of clear skies along with seasonal temperatures and low humidity so any fireworks displays should go off without a hitch. Saturday could see temperatures climb slightly But the humidity will still be low and it will stay dry. Sunday High pressure will start to push east, ahead of approaching disturbance. A southwest flow will bring in warmer temperatures with humidity increasing. As the system gets closer we could see some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms move into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania later in the day. Monday as a front moves into the region we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. The front will be slowing down as it drops south and east. Ahead of the front temperatures will become quite hot and we will see high dew points leading to high heat indexes. Tuesday we'll see the front continuing to ever so slowly Push towards the coast Ahead of the front temperatures will again be very hot and humid, Where is the boundary over the region we are probably stay unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front  will be pulling away off the Coast on Wednesday morning. Parts of southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic Could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front pulling away The rest of the region should stay dry.

07/01/2025

 July starts out wet and stormy.

National weather Service Mount Holly confirmed a tornado touchdowns near Frankford in Sussex County Delaware early afternoon yesterday.

Here is the current surface/radar chart

We can see the warm front is pushing into northern new England with the trailing cold front coming in from the west. In between the two, you can see the prefrontal trough That I talked about yesterday. The thunderstorms over New England are the same storms that went through New York state Pennsylvania and the northern mid Atlantic last night and during the overnight.

Ahead of the cold front we are going to remain very warm and muggy. Today the trough will be the focus as it causes scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will be strong to severe, damaging winds, heavy downpours and possibly hail being the main dangers. With all the moisture in the air frequent vivid lightning will also be possible for some of these storms Risk is low but not zero.

Those with a good chance of seeing strong too severe storms will be across the eastern half of Pennsylvania up through southeastern New York state and into a large part of new England. The greatest chance will be across Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania and into New Jersey; where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather. It will not be a pleasant drive for those on the evening commute on the I-95 corridor

The 1st of 2 cold fronts will come through tomorrow. Most of the region should stay dry But it can't rule out a few isolated rain showers here and there the risk for thunderstorms will be low but I can't completely rule out 1 or 2 of them. The secondary and stronger cold front will come through on Thursday. From this we can expect scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong too severe. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region.

The main risk will be damaging winds frequent lightning some heavy downpours and hail. 

High pressure will be a approaching and setting up overhead for July 4th and Saturday into Sunday. This will provide Comfortable temperatures and low humidity for the 4th And keep us dry for Saturday into Sunday, But humidity will be rising a bit on Saturday And Sunday will see even more Humidity.. Sunday will see the high pressure start to shift east as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front I can't rule a few very isolated showers over  Northwest New York State back into western New York State and northwest Pennsylvania, but the vast majority of y'all should stay dry. The cold front will slowly be dropping out of Canada on Monday bringing scattered showers and some thunderstorms Parts of New York State and northern New England. The cold front will continue to drop south and east across the region on Tuesday again bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ahead of the cold front for Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be very warm and humid. How warm it does get will depend on how much sunshine we see; sunshine will also help determine the extent of any severe weather we see.