12/02/2025

 Well many areas across Pennsylvania New York State and New England are seeing snow, While a large part of southern/central New Jersey up along the coastal plain in New England is seeing plain rain, as the latest storm is moving through the region.

Here's a look at the surface chart and radar

The storm seems to have read my forecast over the last couple of days. Because it seems to be following it as a script; as it appears to be doing very much like what I anticipated it would be. The storm should be exiting Maine by daybreak tomorrow. From what I'm seeing snowfall accumulations are falling into line with the forecast. Please share your observations and snow measurements. Yesterday's post didn't get near the views I thought it would. I'm not sure why this is the case. But I guess it is what it is.

A few days ago I talked about this nor'easter probably bombing out as it approached Nova Scotia. Some of y'all have asked, what does bombing out mean? The technical meteorological term is called bombogenesis,  But sometimes it is called a bomb cyclone. Bombogenesis is when a storm like a nor'easter quickly Intensifies. To become a bomb cyclone the central pressure of the mid latitude cyclone generally must drop at least 24 millibars in one day. The process is similar to when a hurricane undergoes rapid intensification. If you want to know more about bombogenesis let me know and I will make a post on it. The storm  is going to continue to deepen and end up bombing out as it gets up over Atlantic Canada. But this will be too late to bring us more in a way of a significant nor'easter for our region.

The current infrared satellite image. Shows how quickly the system is moving. As the bulk of it has passed to the east of western New York State and Pennsylvania.

Area south and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario W ill see some lake effect snow develop this evening into tonight. Any lake effect should be winding down tomorrow morning.

High pressure is going to build in tomorrow, providing coolest temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds. But all in all it should be a fairly tranquil day! Wednesday night into Thursday a strong arctic front is going to be dropping through the region. Behind this cold front we are going to see arctic air invade the region. Starting Wednesday night and through Thursday; we are going to see several rounds of snow showers and squalls work through the region. These squalls will make driving difficult And could drop quite a few inches in some spots over a short period of time, as they roll through. Behind the front temperatures are going to go into free fall, as the coldest air so far drops into the region. Northern parts of New York State and northern New England temperatures are going to drop well below 0° F. The rest of the region will see temperatures in the single digits into the low 20s, and low 30s on the Coast. Thursday is going to be quite windy. Downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, lake effect snow bands are likely to set up during the afternoon into the evening. These should be short lived and  should be diminishing by Thursday night. The heaviest bands could drop a few inches of snow during this time

Friday we are going to see high pressure approach and quickly move through.  Behind this we're going to see possibly two storms moving eastward across the country. These storms look to be quite similar to the one we're dealing with right now. We're going to have a disturbance in the northern polar jet and a disturbance in the southern subtropical jet.  

Depending on the speed and strength Of the jet stream that's going to be dipping and moving through. will determine how these are going to interact Right now For friday night into Saturday it appears like the two features will not phase, And the southern part of the disturbance Looks to head north and east south of our region. This likely brings rain along and south of the I-95 corridor with some snow north and west of there across northeast Pennsylvania into southeast New York State and across the southern half of New England, as the storm slips out to sea. The northern component could bring a few snow showers across New York State into northern New England, But it shouldn't be very impactful. The air in place is going to be very cold. So we'll just have to see how this looks to evolve as we move over the next couple of days. We look to see another storm slip through for later Saturday and Sunday. The overall setup looks to be similar to the one going through for the first part of the weekend. It wouldn't take much for a partial or even full phase on either one of these systems. If this occurs They would become much bigger storms with large impacts across our region.

Welcome to meteorological winter!

 

Today is the 1st day of meteorological winter! 

The Midwest and Great Lakes was hit hard over the weekend With a lot of snow. Yesterday some of that snow got into northern Pennsylvania and New York state into parts of new England. As that storm continues to pull away today is going to be very cool and fairly tranquil with high pressure sitting overhead. But There are a few light snow showers over parts of the region. This high pressure is going to be very short lived and it is going to start to push east during today into tonight.

On the infrared satellite Image we can see the disturbance that is developing to our west With the northern component moving over the central Plains into the Midwest. and that southern component with the Gulf moisture south of it heading north and east.

I've been talking about this storm development and set up for several days. So I don't think I have to get back into all of that.

For tonight's into tomorrow's Storm.

General timing

The leading edge of snow looks to be starting over western Pennsylvania Monday around 11PM into maybe 1AM on Tuesday. This will continue pushing east during the overnight into Tuesday morning. Reaching central New York State and central Pennsylvania around 3AM to 5AM. The leading edge of the rain and snow Will be pushing into New England,  far eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware 6AM to 8AM. The heavier snow will already be falling to the west over New York State and Pennsylvania. Ice accretion could be a big deal for Eastern Maryland, the Appalachians and across up into Northern Maryland and south central and part of southeast Pennsylvania. The snow should be moving into eastern New England around 8AM to 11AM, then the steadier and heavier snow will be working in late morning Into the early afternoon.

As I said yesterday this is going to be a fast moving storm. The northern shortwave which is starting to weaken as it heads our way , and the southern component with all that moisture associated with it. The storm should be pulling away west to east in the afternoon into the evening for Pennsylvania, New York State and the Middle Atlantic. Across most of New England the snow should be winding down Tuesday night. But for Maine the snow won't be winding down until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

Here is a look at what the GFS and HRRR models are thinking as far as snowfall.

GFS image courtesy of tropical tidbits

HRRR image courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO image courtesy of tropical tidbits

General P-type and accumulation.

There should be a sharp cut off on the southern side of the storm. That rain/snow line closer to the coast will also be meandering back and forth a bit.The

These amounts are general. So local amounts could vary, based on where the meso-scale bands possibly set up.

Delaware and central and southern New Jersey down into the Delmarvia Peninsula should be dealing with just a rain mix to rain.

Freezing rain and ice could be an issue for parts of the Appalachians into parts of western Maryland and south east Pennsylvania.

The amounts I posted the other day seem to be basically still looking good (But I did make a few minor tweaks). But areas north and west of the I-95 corridor  see more in the way of snow.

For the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to Boston You will  be dealing with a wintery mix that results in a trace to 2 inches, This will also include eastern Long Island, southern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.

 For southern New Jersey and along the New Jersey Coast up over western Long Island, Southern Rhode Island  into the Cape and off-shore islands generally this should be just rain 

Across central Massachusetts into much of western Connecticut 2-4 inches of snow is possible The rest of Connecticut not mentioned could see 1-3 inches of snow.

The heaviest impacts still look to be from across northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, southeast New York state including the central Hudson Valley, as well as parts of the Adirondacks, Northwest Connecticut, Much of Massachusetts  north and west of Boston especially north and west of the 495, Southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, central into southern Maine. These areas look to see 4-8 inches of snow This will be especially true for areas from the Catskills up into the Berkshires and southern Greens where 10-14 inches of snow is possible.

For northern New York State as well as Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire And northern Maine and coastal Maine 1-4 " of snow is possible.  For central New York State  down into central Pennsylvania 3-6 " of snow is possible.  Across western New York State Into western Pennsylvania a general 1-4  inches of snow is possible.

This won't be a blockbuster storm but it is the first regional synoptic snow event that we have seen so far.

Wednesday we'll see high pressure move in overhead providing a fairly nice and quiet day. Turn on Thursday we will see a very strong cold front Roll through Allowing very cold air to move into the region. With this With this we will see widespread snow showers and some snow flurries north of the I-95 with rain snow mix South of the I-95. For the vast majority of us this shouldn't have any major impacts. But there could be some lake effect snow squalls downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario for Thursday afternoon into the evening Before they weaken and taper off Thursday night. Friday shouldn't be too bad. We will see a dip in the jet stream That is going to allow cold air to move in overhead for the weekend.  Then we'd be watching a Shortwave disturbance in the northern stream and an area of low pressure in the southern stream for Saturday. How these two interact will have a major impact on if we see widespread snow across the region. Right now it looks like they're not going to phase or at least completely phase So it's looking more like a mixed bag with some snow some mix/ice and some rain. If these two do end up phasing this could be a bigger deal for parts of the region. If this cold air advances into the region faster than anticipated It could even push this storm out to sea. So there's a lot of scenarios that could happen with this.  Sunday we will have a weak shortwave trough will work through bringing a chance for some scattered snow showers and a few flurries across much of the region. Then on Monday high pressure builds in with temperatures running very cold.