Are we done with arctic air?

 

Today we have that clipper moving across Canada to our north and we're also going to have a clipper like disturbance moving into Virginia from the  Tennessee Valley. Neither one of these systems is going to bring significant snow to the region The northern disturbance bringing a dusting to an inch or two across part of Pennsylvania New York State into New England. With perhaps 3-4 inches across the higher hills south of the Mohawk Valley, Tug Hill, Adirondacks and higher elevations in New England. The southern disturbance will bring some snow along the Mason Dixon line into southern Pennsylvania, Maryland , Delaware and New Jersey. Snow mounts aren't gonna be significant and will generally range for dusting to an inch maybe two in spots.

The temperatures this week have moderated a little bit from the ridiculously cold temperatures we've been experiencing for the last week to week and a half. But they're still considered below average for this time of year.

High pressure is gonna build in tomorrow and temperatures are going to become a little bit warmer than they are today. The limited lake effect will be continuing and the region will see these disturbances pushed to the east with lingering Snow showers.

Heading into Thursday We will be watching a clipper approach the region Along with a wheat trough moving across. This will bring Scattered snow showers And some flurries to the region Along with more limited lake effect snow downwind of the lakes especially lake Ontario. Thursday night into Friday we will see the bottom dropout and our temperatures are once again going to head into the basement. With this we're going to see a coastal low developed south and east of long island. This won't bring anything significant to the region But it could enhance snowfall a little bit across parts of southern New England and Long Island. Over the weekend It's going to be windy across the region. So wind chills will be adding to that cold.

Weekend temperatures

We are going to cool off a lot again this coming weekend. Then as high pressure builds in temperatures will start to modify next Monday then temperatures turn much warmer for 10th of February and lasting two or three days. During this time we could see temperatures actually trend above average.

I've been talking about the teleconnections The El Nino Southern Oscillation, Madden Julian Oscillation along with the polar vortex and  sudden stratospheric warming. And how these things are pointing at a return of the cold during the second half of February. I think from February 15th onward we're generally gonna see temperatures cool off quite a bit Likely becoming below average overall once again. 

We're moving into that part of winter where what is considered average temperature anomaly climbs near 1° a day. So what is considered below average for February 15th is not necessarily the same below average that we would see on January 15th.

So to answer the question, no we're not done with arctic air masses just yet!

Happy Groundhog Day!

 

We have high pressure in control today.

Temperature started out really cool. But they're going to recover and temperatures will become a little below average. 

Punxsutawney phil, definitely saw his shadow today. So I guess we're all in agreement Winter is going to be sticking around for a while!

It was very cold this morning, So I guess Punxsutawney was not too thrilled about being taken out of his nice warm burrow out into the snow ice and all that cold air. But I guess when you've the prognosticator of all prognosticators you have to put up with some nonsense!

Looking at the current surface chart and radar we can see why Punxsutawney saw his shadow.

We can see that cold arctic high pressure is providing plenty of sun and the entire region is dry. But I can't rule out a few very widespread flurries. Satellite shows not much is going on.

We can see that not a weak clipper moving north of the Great Lakes. We can also see that disturbance Moving away from the Rockies into the Plains. Later Tuesday into Wednesday a clipper will be passing to our south.

As I said yesterday We'll have a couple of chances for a little bit of snow this week. The 1st is gonna be at clipper Dragging a front through, We shouldn't see much in the way of snow just scattered snow showers That could produce a dusting to an inch for some of us. Those along the Mason Dixon line could end up with more of a widespread chance for snow; but again The amount should be light producing  dusting to an inch or so. Air moving over the relatively warmer Great Lakes will kick off some lake effect, Those under the most persistent parts of the band could see 3-6 inches of snow.

High pressure is gonna work back in overhead for Wednesday night and Thursday. This should allow the region to see quite a bit of sun And it looks to be predominantly dry. Then on Thursday night and Friday, we're gonna have another clipper that's going to be dropping out of the Great Lakes Then dropping south and east across the region. The second clipper will be a little different than the first one. This one could be a little more robust and have a little bit more in the way of moisture to work with. This is going to be moving very fast. But it's also going to try to redevelop develop a coastal system. But in spite of all that it is still going to be a bit moisture starved. So in spite of everything this one will probably only bring a widespread dusting to 2 maybe 3 inches. But parts of western Pennsylvania New York State into New England, could see slightly higher amounts at the local level. Behind this front very cold air is gonna work back into the region. Accompanying the arctic air mass will be very breezy conditions. So on top of all the cold air the wind chills are going to be brutal once again for Friday night, Saturday and Sunday. Away from the Great Lakes  Saturday is looking to be fairly dry. But we will have lake effect falling downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario. Then for Super Bowl Sunday we're going to have a weakening clipper approach the region. As this clipper falls apart it could kick off some Snow showers and flurries. But for the most part it won't be that big of a deal. Sunday we'll see the lake effect continuing downwind of lake Ontario and to some extent lake Erie due to cold air.

Behind us for the next several weeks We're going to be dealing with quite a bit of overall cold and wintry conditions. But I've been saying this for quite some time and now Punxsutawney agrees.

Welcome to February

 A quick look at week ahead a little more on the long range and a look at some seasonal snow totals I've found.

Today it's still very cold and that breeze is making it feel even colder. Today will be the end of cold we've been experiencing. Starting tomorrow temperature is gonna start to turn a bit milder, temperatures are going to be warmer than they have been; but they're still going to be considered below average for this time of year. These relatively milder temperatures aren't going to stick around, By this coming weekend we're going to once again be heading towards the basement.

Monday (Groundhog's Day) It's gonna start out quite cold. But then temperatures will be moderating later in the morning and through the afternoon. Who's hoping the furry want to be Meteorologist is going to see his shadow?

This coming week we're going to have a couple clippers coming through.  The first will be on Tuesday. The second will be towards the end of the week.

The first clipper looks to be fairly weak So away from the Great Lakes other than scattered snow showers and some flurries it shouldn't be too  impactful. But downwind of lake Erie and especially lake Ontario there will be lake effect snow falling for Wednesday into Thursday with several  inches of snow possible downwind of both lakes.

The second clipper looks to be more potent and could bring more in the way of widespread snow Into a large part of the region.. The snow from this one is looking to be more in the way of a plowable event for many of y'all. Some could end up being very suprised. Behind this clipper we are going to see very cold air move back into the region. With the cold air coming back in over the Great Lakes another sizable lake effect event is likely to occur with once again lake effect snow amounts being measured in feet under the most persistent parts of the band.

A quick look ahead

it looks like these generally cold temperatures are gonna stick around at least for the month of February and likely extending into the middle of March.

As I've been saying over the last several post the active pattern we've been experiencing Looks to last right through February and maybe into March. Over the last several weeks I've been explaining the factors like the fading La Nina is the reasons for the subtropical jet becoming very active.

When I issued my winter outlook for 2025-2026 I  listed several analogs that  looked to be good  correlations  for this winter. The top analog was 2014.

The 2014 analogue has been performing very well. I see that continuing. So far this winter has been quite cold with a lot of activity. There have been several clippers, Several lake effect snow events, a few coastal events and one region wide big storm. A large part of the region has seen average to above average snowfall with some areas seen well above average snow amounts. Given the pattern that idea should continue moving forward.

The climate prediction center supports this idea

There are signals in the pattern that say next week we could have a fairly impactful storm for at least parts of the region. This would be around the middle of next week in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.  There are also  storm signals for the middle of the 3rd week of February. 

A look at the National Weather Service seasonal snowfall  totals so far for this season

Seasonal snow totals as of Friday that I have found.

Based on reports from Coop ,CoCoRaHS and other trusted sources

Worth NY 255"

Barn Corners NY 235.3

 Adams NY 210"

Lacona NY 183.3"

Point Rock NY 171.5"

Taberg NY 151"

Marcy NY 143"

Utica NY 95.7"

Syracuse NY 113.5"

Rochester BY 81.5"

Buffalo NY 71.2"

Binghamton NY  50.2"

Albany NY  44.5"

Philadelphia PA 15.7"

Allentown PA 28.5"

Harrisburg PA 20.2"

Scranton PA 33.3"

Newark NJ 25.2"

Atlantic City NJ  8.9"

New York City  21.1" (as of January 26th)

Boston MA 31"

If you have seasonal totals for your area please share them!