Winter is back!

 

    

The cold front that came through is now sitting off the coast. Yesterday's and last night's rain Has changed over to snow As much colder temperatures move to the region. Winds are still very gusty, add in these cold temperatures coming in behind the front, And the winds are making it feel even colder. Here's a look At the 24 hour temperature change From Penn state's E. wall. On it we can see temperatures are 20-40 °F From what they wore at this time yesterday.

Behind this departing system It's going to be a very chilly night And We will see Mainly dry conditions with some sun tomorrow morning. But we are going to have a clipper roll through tomorrow. 

As this moves through, Northern Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central New England Likely will see widespread snow. General accumulation will be a dusting to 2inches. Then there will be a slight warm up during the afternoon that will change the snow over to a rain/mix.  Then as temperatures cool back down heading towards the evening; there will likely be a change back to snow with additional accumulations likely. Friday night into Saturday the higher elevations will likely pick up  4-10 + inches of that additional snow. Across the rest of Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic There will be some scattered rain showers that could mix in with a little bit of wet snow flakes At times. This system will be pulling away on Saturday.

Sunday a system up over the Great Lakes Is going to allow the first of two warm fronts to lift through our region. With the warm front we will see rain showers and snow showers on the leading edge. The snow will likely change to rain south to north during the day. It's on clear exactly how far north this first front will get. The stronger cold front warm front comes through Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be turning milder, allowing most of this to be rain showers. But some northern high elevation snow showers will also be possible. Winds are going to be very gusty 20-30 miles an hour with higher gust very possible. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Then Monday night Into Tuesday A cold front is gonna swing in through the region allowing temperatures to free fall. We will likely see some thunderstorms with  rain showers changeover to some snow showers. With some accumulations possible across northern Pennsylvania, New York State and northern and central New England. This will be especially true in those northern higher elevation areas Where additional accumulation is possible. We will likely also see lake effect snow start up off of lake Erie and lake Ontario. Wednesday high pressure is gonna be building in behind the system with some lake snows continuing. Thursday we are going to see high pressure setting up overhead Of a southern flow which should start Warm us back up to seasonal levels.

Last day of the warmth for now!

 Surface chart radar and infrared satellite

Radar shows the snow and mix just to our north in Canada. This is associated With a area of low pressure Up over Michigan. We have a warm front lifting through our region Which has us in the warm sector. Associated with that warm front we have rain showers in parts of the region. On the surface chart we can also see a trailing cold front out west that will be coming through late  tonight and tomorrow.   With all the dynamics in place We have a threat for strong  severe thunderstorms This afternoon into tonight.

We have a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the area of organized thunderstorms Over Illinois. An MCV is a small area of low pressure in the mid levels; that can enhance convective (thunderstorm) development.

Today's severe weather threat

We're likely going to see a few lines of thunderstorms develop and move through the region today. These lines will be capable of strong to damaging wind gust. So we will have to be on the lookout for bow echoes that develop within the line that would indicate the areas where damaging winds are very possible. Damaging wind gust will be the main danger today from these thunderstorms But hail will also be an issue. The setup also supports the possibility of embedded tornadoes within the line of thunderstorms. This would make any isolated tornadoes that pop up, possibly rain wrapped, making them more dangerous, as you couldn't see them. Our severe season is starting early. So it would be a good idea to buy a NOAA weather alert radio. So that you would be notified of impending severe weather in your area. Winds are gonna become breezy to windy later today.

The most likely time for severe weather will be this afternoon into this evening. 

Here is an image from the latest mesoscale discussion from the SPC talking about the possibility of a tornado watch being issued.

MD 214

Click the link to view the discussion.

Today is going to be the last day of the super warmth many of us have been enjoying. But the air over northern Maine is cold enough for there to be a mix Precipitation today That could result in 0.1That could result in 0.120.3" of ice. As the cold front comes through later tonight and tomorrow it is going to knock these temperatures back down to where they should be for this time of year. While it won't feel like February cold It will be a jolt to the system. As we've been accustomed to these warm temperatures. As the cold air comes in it's It's going to change the rain over to some snow showers For most of us the ground will be just too warm for Anything other than very minor accumulations if that. But downwind Of lake Ontario and lake Erie There could be some lake effect snow that develops This will be a specially true downwind of lake Ontario where 1-3 inches And maybe a little bit more than that in very localized areas. These bands should be very narrow.

Winds are gonna continue to be very gusty tomorrow. With gust the 30-40 miles an hour plus possible. 

With all the warm temperatures melting the remaining snow pack and the incoming waves of rain. It's going to increase the flood risk for area streams and rivers. Several parts of New York State and Vermont are currently under flood watches.

We're going to have a clipper pass to our north Later friday into friday night, A front will come through across New York State into New England. With the front, there will likely be snow showers That lead to the possibility of some accumulating  snow for  New York State into northern and central New England. This will be especially true in the higher elevations like the Adirondacks where moderate accumulations will be possible. General accumulations look to be D-2 inches south of the I-90 in New York. With 2-4 inches north of the thruway and across northern new England. As I said the higher elevations like the tug hill Adirondacks and Greens have a chance to see 4-8 inches of snow.  Accumulations will be very dependent on elevation. Lingering rain showers and snow showers will be possible across the region on Saturday

Over the weekend our temperatures are likely  to turn  slightly below average for this time of year. 

Another system will be rolling through for Sunday into Monday.   This is going to bring more northern snow and southern parts of the region most likely see rain. 

Over at least the next couple of weeks We're going to get back on that typical early spring temperature rollercoaster. These waves of cold Are going to be partially associated with the polar vortex. That I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks. These waves are cold Are going to work together to try and extend the cold to the south.

Changes they are a coming!

Current surface chart Radar And infrared satellite image.

Today

We have high pressure in control over head. Temperatures are very mild with just a few very isolated rain showers. These temperatures are going to continue to warm as we go through the afternoon. We do have that nearly stationary boundary setting to our north. This is going to cause some mischief for tomorrow. That approaching cold front Shows up very well On the infrared satellite image. Today this cold front Is going to lead to severe weather out over the midwest and Ohio Valley. There is a chance that some of these stronger storms make it into western parts of New York State and Pennsylvania.

Looking at the 24 hour temperature change from Penn State's E-wall. We can see temperatures today are much warmer than they were even yesterday But we can also see that cold air is right on our doorstep.

Today's severe outlook

Looking at the severe outlook Tornado Possibilities We can see the 1st use of the new storm prediction center hatched level 2. This means there's a  greater chance for possibly some stronger tornadoes than we have seen over the last few days.

Wednesday

Tomorrow as that strong cold front approaches. We are going to be Very  warm Along with a noticeable increase in humidity ahead of that approaching  cold front. Rain will be moving west to east into Western and northern New York state, Pennsylvania. and northern New England. Along with this There will be the risk for thunderstorms Some of these will be strong to severe. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather over a large part of Pennsylvania, Maryland ,Delaware and most of New Jersey. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather over northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. As well as into southwest New York State. The risk will be the possibility of damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail There was also the possibility for a few isolated tornadoes to developed. We will have to watch and see if the line of thunderstorms develop a bow echo which would increase the risk for damaging winds.

Tomorrow's severe outlook

Rain will be locally heavy at times, With a chance for a bit of a mix over far northern New York State and northern New England. The actual cold front will come through the region Late Wednesday night night Into Thursday. As the front comes through We will see Moderate to heavy rain move across the region west to east. Behind the front Much cooler air than we've seen the last few days will move into the region. The cold coming in is going to be  seasonal to slightly lower than average for this time of year. With the cold Rain will change over to some snow For most there won't be any accumulation as the ground is very warm. Are over parts of New York State into northern New England a minor accumulation of snow will be possible. This Will be especially true in the higher elevations As that air moves over the Great Lakes Some lake affects snow is likely to develop. There will be a chance for some ice accretion across far northern New York State, far northern Vermont and New Hampshire. As well as northern Maine Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday are going to be windy. With wind gust of 30-40 plus miles an hour possible

On Friday high pressure will be moving through the region across the region. Then for later Friday into Saturday, we will see a clipper move across Southeast Canada. As this trough come through. there be a chance for snow showers a mix across northern Pennsylvania New York State into northern and central New England and rain showers  for those southern areas.

On Sunday we're gonna have a system in the Great Lakes drag a warm front into the region. as the front moves through there be a chance for snow and mix on the northern side, as this warm front continues north. Temperatures are going to warm and this will change over to rain as a southern flow brings milder air back into the region. Monday we will see a cold front approach and move across the region. Is the cooler temperatures set up rain will change over to a bit of snow across parts of New York State Into New England. Again there could be some accumulation across northern parts of our region.  When's will be gusty on Sunday into Monday. 

 Tuesday the cold front clears the region But there will be a chance for some lake effect snow falling downwind of the Great Lakes.

Enjoy it while it last!

 Current surface chart radar and satellite.

If you like perfect spring days in March. Today is your day!

Temperatures across interior parts of the region are very mild. Along the coast Temperatures are a bit cooler due to that sea breeze. We have that frontal boundary to our south; with a lot of sun over southern parts of our region with some clouds and isolated rain showers across northern parts of the region.

With all the warmth Snow melt and ice jams are going to be a issue. So stay alert for flooding.

On the surface chart we can see There is a cold front over the northern plains that is heading our way. This front is likely to cause quite a bit of severe weather Over the upper midwest and Plains tomorrow. 

For us For us tomorrow is going to be milder than it is even today. With record breaking warmth possible. As the front Moves closer western into central parts of our region could see a bit of rain. The rain showers would be moving into western parts of the region during the afternoon and then into central parts of the region in the evening and overnight. A few snow mix showers could be across far northern parts of the region this will be especially true for northern Maine.  A few very isolated showers Could make it into eastern New York state in eastern Pennsylvania But most should stay dry. Wednesday will be another very warm day With the front approaching and moving close to western parts of our region. South and southwest winds will become very gusty.  Ahead of the front hit and miss rain showers and thunderstorms will move into the western half of our region. We will see pockets of heavier rain and some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe storms over southwest Pennsylvania. With a Marginal Risk across central and to northern Pennsylvania as well as  southwest New York State. 

Thursday is going to continue to be very windy with wind gust of 30-40 miles an hour or so possible. The actual cold front will be coming in Wednesday overnight and through Thursday Rain chances will increase across new England. Temperatures are quickly gonna fall behind the front. We are going to see Rain change over to snow west to east across the region. Most of the region shouldn't see any snow accumulations But the northern areas especially in higher elevations could pick up a few inches. High pressure will move in behind the cold front. Temperatures are going to fall a lot But remember we're into mid to late march And so Temperatures in the 30s and 40s is a big difference from temperatures in the 10s and 20s that we would have seen earlier this winter.

A clipper will be moving through later Friday into Saturday. This will bring rain showers and snow/mix showers to the region. And allow us to stay chili for the weekend. Sunday into Monday we are going to be watching another storm moving towards the Great Lakes. This very likely will set off more severe weather in the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. There is a chance that this could bring some accumulating snow to northern parts of our region. With rain for the rest of us.

Warm for now!

 Very warm for the first half of the week but changes are coming!

A quick post and what to expect this week.

We have a cold front moving across the region.  Slightly cooler are moving in behind the front, As high pressure will be moving in.  The rain showers associated with the cold front have mostly slipped to the east and the majority of the region is dry.

For tomorrow as the high pressure sits overhead south southwest winds will allow much warmer air to work into the region. This high pressure is going to stay overhead for Tuesday into Wednesday. That southwest flow will allow Tuesday to be even milder than Monday,

During the first half of the week, high temperatures records are going to be challenged and even broken. These warm temperatures are going to lead to a lot of snow melt and the good chance of ice dam flooding. If you're in a flood prone area stay aware!

Here's a look at the 5 day  850MB ECMWF temperature ensembles, Courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Wednesday is gonna start out very mild. But we're going to watch a strong system approaching. The cold front associated with this system is likely going to be causing quite a bit of severe weather out over the Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday. As this front comes through our region later Wednesday and Thursday The severe component should be lower. But we are going to be seeing much cooler Canadian air work into the region; putting an end to the super mild temperatures.

Ahead of the front on Wednesday We are going to watch rain showers work into the region. These are going to be sliding south and east ahead of the frontal boundary. Possibly impacting parts of northern New York State and western parts of our region later Wednesday. Along with the rain will come to chance for some thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. As the front continues to push through during Wednesday into Thursday; the rain showers and thunderstorms are going to continue to move across the rest of the region. On Thursday is that cooler air is moving into the region rain is likely going to change over to some snow/mix showers across at least the northern half of Pennsylvania all of New York State and New England. 

 

The snow could be accumulating especially in the higher elevations. Those downwind of the Great Lakes are also likely to be dealing with some lake effect snow. We are going to have to watch for the possible redevelopment of a coastal low. Friday into Saturday we are going to see a clipper system move through reinforcing the cold air in the region and bringing rain and snow showers with it

Wednesday into Thursday we're going to be seeing strong winds with the frontal boundary, wind gust of 30-40+ miles an hour will be quite possible. The winds will lessen but it's still going to be gusty as we head into Friday and the weekend. For the second half of this week and through next week the temperatures are going to be up and down as the pattern stays very active with several areas of low pressure coming through the region.

This cooler trend Is going to be with us for at least the next couple of weeks. The Climate Protection Center 8-14 day temperature outlook does agree with this assessment.

Have a great rest of your Sunday!

Chance for severe thunderstorms.

 Surface chart and radar

We have the approaching cold front moving out of the Ohio Valley. This will head east during the course of today. We have thunderstorms within the convective band ahead of the cold front. They will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for western into central parts of our region. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across western parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. With a Marginal Risk into central and New York State and central Pennsylvania. The risk today will include the possibility of some damaging winds, hail and possibly a few tornadoes. As the environment is unstable enough to support embedded tornadoes within some of the squall lines as well as a chance for a few supercell tornadoes to develop. This is the first use of the new SPC intensity forecast hatches that are marked on the maps. I posted a few days ago what these hatch mark areas mean and how to interpret them. If you didn't see the post or want to know what they mean you can go back and find them.

The day 1 convective outlook.

As all this moves into a more stable environment later this evening into tonight all of this should settle down.

As I've said before many times The best way to stay warned of severe weather in your area is to have a NOAA weather radio. They are inexpensive and work very well. I strongly encourage all y'all  to buy and use them.

Have a great and safe Saturday!

Spring fever is here. But is it a false spring?

 current setup

Today is gonna be fairly tranquil The radar shows not a lot going on overhead with just a few very isolated rain showers or snow showers. The surface chart does show a cold front will be moving through tomorrow. With the cold front we will see rain showers moving through the region. There will be a chance for some thunderstorms. So don't be surprised if you hear a  rumble of thunder. The storm protection center does have the risk for some severe storms over the western parts of our region into the central parts of our region. The SPC currently has a Slight Risk for severe storms over western New York State and western Pennsylvania with a Marginal Risk stretching east from there.

Once this moves through It will set the stage for some warmer weather to move into the region

It certainly starting to feel like spring.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

But we still have a lot of cold in the pattern up over Canada. That cold is basically going to stay locked up in Canada into next week. Over the weekend We are going to start. warming up. But the real warmth will be for Monday into Wednesday.

Images courtesy tropical tidbits

As we move towards The 14th and 15th of March The pattern does look like it will support colder temperatures moving into the Plains and East Coast. The

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

Why do I think  this? The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is in it's neutral phase Which means it's not putting too much influence onto the pattern. Instead other teleconnections like the Madden  Julian Oscillation are having a greater influence  on the overall  pattern

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) currently is in Phase 5 heading for phase 6. Typically during this time of year,  these phases put a  a trough in the west and a ridge in the east. This is going to set up the tropical forcing  in such a way; that we see the warmth move in that is going to be here for several days. But currently the amptitude is low so the MJO influence in those phases will be rather weak; Nevertheless we are going to see  above average temperatures.  But the MIO looks to move into phase 7 and 8 which will promote a  ridge in the west and a trough here in the east. Looking at the diagrams we can see it is forecasted to be at a higher amplitude. Which means the MJO will be exerting more influence than it is currently. This is signaling a return to a pattern that is unsettled, cool and stormy.

The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) is currently neutral.  This is a signal for cold air to move into Canada. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is very strongly positive. Typically that's a warm signal. But the polar vortex is rather weak right now. 

Due to the weak nature Of the Polar vortex it will have a wavy appearance And be more Attuned  to bring colder air to the lower latitudes.

For the Northeast  the WPO will help the polar vortex stretch. As that cold air is pouring into Canada it will act as a counter to the NAO. As the pattern evolves We will see troughs move through with waves of cold moving into the northern US. With the southern parts of the United States really starting to warm up This will set the stage for some storminess, with the threat for severe weather outbreaks. The question will be, can one of the short waves in the southern stream interact with these waves to the north enough that we could see a bigger storm try to push ahead and into the Northeast? We really have no way of knowing if we will see a big storm up here or not. but the pattern does support the idea, with better chances for phasing between the streams..

A few weeks ago it looked like the polar vortex would be aimed more at north America But now It looks like the main flux of this will be aimed away from north America. So we are going to see pc of cold move to our region As we see troughs move through the North American pattern. The models are all basically showing the same thing. Here is the GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits.

This shows that we're going to see cool spells and warming spells moving through the next few weeks.  The EURO ensemble shows how the warmth that we're seeing now and into next week is going to fade as we move forward as a cooler pattern moves into the region. These images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

There is no guarantee that we're going to see any big storms here in our region over the rest of march into the first part of April. But as I just went through, the pattern does support the idea that we could see a big storm. But the odds of seeing a big winter storm is long. As were in that time of year where these storms have to come together perfectly and thread a needle.

The second half of March is definitely going to be overall much cooler than the first half. Will the second half overrule the first half when it comes to overall temperature anomalies for the month? Maybe maybe not, but I am leaning towards the not. But I'm telling you all y'all That we're gonna  be on a temperature rollercoaster with ups and downs and turns and curves. But then again that's typical for spring.