We’re not done with frosts and freezes just yet!

The first weekend of May, was quite cool. But we will see a warmup for Today and even more so for tomorrow. But it won’t last as the chill will return later this week behind a cold front.

The Surface Chart and Radar.

The Surface chart shows high pressure to the east is still influencing our weather, with the warm front having lifted through the region. This is allowing for a southwest flow that is bringing in much milder temperatures. But we can also see low pressure north of the Great Lakes with that cold front that will approach us on Tuesday. The rain showers with the warm front have pushed through New York State and are now over northern New England.

Today will see winds become gusty

For Tuesday the morning into the afternoon should be dry, but then as the slow-moving cold front begins to move across western parts of our region, isolated showers will move in ahead of the front. These showers will become more widespread Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. With enough sunshine earlier in the day, we will likely see some afternoon and evening thunderstorms, as the cold front continues to ever so slowly push east into the warm airmass. A few of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side.  Ahead of the cold front winds are going to be gusty with gusts from the southwest 30 to 35 mph,

 Satellite 

Regional satellite shows a lot of sun and tranquil conditions moving in from the west, this will be with us into tomorrow. But the I/R shows the conditions that will be with us later tomorrow and the rest of the week.

Behind the cold front the region is going to see another significant cool down for the several days.  

Wednesday and beyond

 

On Wednesday this cold front is going to slowly push through, along with these waves of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday is also going to start to cool back off, but it will still be relatively warm along with increasing cloudiness and rain showers.  

General rainfall of 1-2″ is likely, with amounts upwards of around 2.5" -3” for some will be possible with the passage of the front.

This slow-moving frontal boundary will have a few waves of energy moving along it for Wednesday and Thursday. Keeping things unsettled. No day will be a wash out...but expect there to be period of showers. Then On Thursday another cold front will roll through bringing the risk for some rain showers and perhaps gusty thunderstorms This is going to reenforce the cooler air already in place through Mother's Day weekend. Friday we will be under the influence of a trough that will be digging back in. keeping things unsettled During this time high elevational mix/snow showers will be possible over New York State and northern into central New England. The trough will be hanging around for Saturday into Sunday along with the chance for a few rain showers. Later this week and through the weekend, the cooler areas around the northern Great Lakes, northern and central New York State and interior New England will have to be leery of the chance for frost and freezes.

This same general pattern looks to be with us again next week. With a brief warmup beginning the week followed by another cooldown for the second half of next week.

 I hope all y’all have read my long-range ideas I posted Friday and Sunday.

More on Spring and Summer

This post will tie into with Friday’s post.

How April worked out?

Before we look at May and beyond. Let’s take a look at how April’s temperature and precipitation ended up

These are showing the individual stations climate ranking for the last 134 years  

 April Temperature rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

In spite of April having more cool days than warm one. Those super warm days during the month skewed the months temperature, to average above average as far as general temperature on average across a large part of our region.

April Precipitation rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

We can clearly see the predominate storm track that led to the severe weather in the Plains and Great Lakes. This resulted in a lot of moisture be pulled out of the Gulf and stream it northward into the Upper Midwest and the areas around the Great Lakes.  

We can also see the influence of the Bermuda High, that has resulted in a lot of dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. that has extended into the Northern Middle Atlantic and Southern New England.       

What about May?

I’ve been talking about how this year’s El Nino and the other teleconnections could allow for the Northeast to see a generally cooler than average Spring.

April did in fact see more cooler than average days during April. But the Amount of heat we saw on the days that were milder did end up making the month warmer than average overall.

 The best years for May analogues are 2008, 2020 and 2021

 This Summer (June through August)

 El Nino is going to strengthen, and possibility evolve into a rare extremely strong (super) El Nino later in the Summer and then likely be with us through at least the start of 2027.

During this upcoming Summer. I think there is going to be a divide between the northern part of the region and the southern part of the region.

I used to do maps that showed my thoughts. But they seemed to cause problems with some not knowing where they generally were on the map. But I will try it again, below shows the temperature outlooks each month from June through August.

June

The entire region could end up a bit chilly overall based by typical June temperatures

 

 

July

For July those warmer temperatures to the West and South will try and push into our region. I think the end result will see A north-south split in temperatures similar to what I’m thinking for May.

 

August

I still think the overall pattern we’ve been seeing is still going to be with us during August. So the August temperature profile could look similar to what we’re going to see in July.

 

  I have to ask you to remember, that this doesn’t mean there won’t be very warm days. I just saying that similar patterns during the summer have previously limited the risk of persistent Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic summer heat. So, we should end up with fewer than average heat waves.

 

Severe weather

As far as severe weather during June and July with the temperature contrast that looks to be present, we could see quite a bit of severe weather, bringing the chance for around average to above-average number of tornadoes. This will be especially true for New York State, Pennsylvania, into the Middle Atlantic.

 That’s a very quick look at my thoughts. I will likely release a bit more detail on the Summer as we get closer.

Have a great rest of your Sunday.

Welcome to May Day but the chill is still here!

 

I’ve been getting quite a few inquiries on when we are going to warm up. So, here’s a post that will try to answer that.

The surface chart and radar

The calendar says it’s May; but the temperatures are saying that isn’t true. In spite of us moving deeper into Spring, the pattern is going to go in the opposite direction.  While the polar vortex is over, it’s aftereffects are not.

 Why is it so cold?

We have a strong cold front tracking eastward across the United States, the front is causing a big drop in temperatures from the Plains to the East.  The system is bringing a sharp break from the recent conditions, where temperatures were very mild, allowing the trees to start budding.

 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The change is being driven by a deep dip in the jet stream. This is allowing much cooler air to dive south out of Canada. As the bend in the jet stream is funneling that polar air mass into the eastern 2/3 of the Continental US (CONUS) This is going to continue as we move farther into May.

That storm system is doing more than just pushing the cold front through; the slow-moving system that is riding along the jet stream is reenforcing the colder air already in place, helping reinforce the cooler pattern and making it hard to dislodge. The change is being driven by a deep dip in the jet stream, which is allowing a surge of cooler air to move south out of Canada.

When will temperatures warm back up?

Here is a look at the Long-range outlook from NOAA. This is covering from early to mid-May.

 

We can see it's continuing to signal below-average temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. The Jet is going to stay active with dips in the Jet. Resulting in reenforcing shots of colder air. Remember that doesn’t necessarily mean it we will see cold or freezing air all the time, but rather some warmth between these cold shots.

 

Overall, moving forward we look to see a gradual, uneven warm-up where overall we’re colder than average, but should see seasonable or higher-than-average average temperatures at times. rather than sustained warmer temperature through at least mid-May. The second half of May doesn’t look to be as cold as the first half across our region as well as the East in general, but an abrupt swing into summerlike warmth is looking very unlikely. I’ve been talking about this pattern for the last few months. In the Spring Outlook a said overall this spring could say overall cool.