More on Spring and Summer

This post will tie into with Friday’s post.

How April worked out?

Before we look at May and beyond. Let’s take a look at how April’s temperature and precipitation ended up

These are showing the individual stations climate ranking for the last 134 years  

 April Temperature rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

In spite of April having more cool days than warm one. Those super warm days during the month skewed the months temperature, to average above average as far as general temperature on average across a large part of our region.

April Precipitation rank

Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM) 

We can clearly see the predominate storm track that led to the severe weather in the Plains and Great Lakes. This resulted in a lot of moisture be pulled out of the Gulf and stream it northward into the Upper Midwest and the areas around the Great Lakes.  

We can also see the influence of the Bermuda High, that has resulted in a lot of dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. that has extended into the Northern Middle Atlantic and Southern New England.       

What about May?

I’ve been talking about how this year’s El Nino and the other teleconnections could allow for the Northeast to see a generally cooler than average Spring.

April did in fact see more cooler than average days during April. But the Amount of heat we saw on the days that were milder did end up making the month warmer than average overall.

 The best years for May analogues are 2008, 2020 and 2021

 This Summer (June through August)

 El Nino is going to strengthen, and possibility evolve into a rare extremely strong (super) El Nino later in the Summer and then likely be with us through at least the start of 2027.

During this upcoming Summer. I think there is going to be a divide between the northern part of the region and the southern part of the region.

I used to do maps that showed my thoughts. But they seemed to cause problems with some not knowing where they generally were on the map. But I will try it again, below shows the temperature outlooks each month from June through August.

June

The entire region could end up a bit chilly overall based by typical June temperatures

 

 

July

For July those warmer temperatures to the West and South will try and push into our region. I think the end result will see A north-south split in temperatures similar to what I’m thinking for May.

 

August

I still think the overall pattern we’ve been seeing is still going to be with us during August. So the August temperature profile could look similar to what we’re going to see in July.

 

  I have to ask you to remember, that this doesn’t mean there won’t be very warm days. I just saying that similar patterns during the summer have previously limited the risk of persistent Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic summer heat. So, we should end up with fewer than average heat waves.

 

Severe weather

As far as severe weather during June and July with the temperature contrast that looks to be present, we could see quite a bit of severe weather, bringing the chance for around average to above-average number of tornadoes. This will be especially true for New York State, Pennsylvania, into the Middle Atlantic.

 That’s a very quick look at my thoughts. I will likely release a bit more detail on the Summer as we get closer.

Have a great rest of your Sunday.