Heat and Smoke!

 Surface chart and radar.

We have a stationary front sitting over Pennsylvania that extends down through Delaware. We also have a quasi-stationary front to our north that is slowly approaching. Along these stationary fronts there could be isolated showers and thunderstorms, there is the chance that one or two of these storms could become strong to severe. Those with the best chance of seeing scattered showers and severe weather will be in northeast New York State and northern New England, this will be especially true across Maine, where the Severe Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a Slight Risk over y’all. 

The northwest flow is still dragging Wildfire Smoke out of Ontario Canada into the region. Looking at the sky there is a yellow/brown smoky haze over most parts of the region that smoke is reaching the ground.  The smoke shows up very well on satellite. Looking at the AirNow (EPA) air quality map We can see most of the region with the exception of much of Maine is dealing with Air Quality Alerts.  The areas in purple are considered very unhealthy with a particulate reading of over 200. The Area in red is rated unhealthy with a reading over 150.  The orange has particulate readings of at least 100, so those with lung issues should stay indoors as much as possible. Those under the yellow are dealing with moderate levels.  The thick wildfire smoke will keep us cooler than what the models are indicating. Everyone should exercise caution if they're going to be working outdoors.

That northern front will move into New York State and northern New England later this afternoon/early evening, those behind the front will see air quality slightly improve. As the front moves south, it will decrease humidity levels overnight for those of y’all behind the front.

Friday features more of a mix of sunshine and clouds and highs in the low-80s.  These smoky conditions are still going to be impacting us, but it shouldn’t be as impactful as today. It shouldn’t be a hot and humid as today.

Saturday will see a warm front advance into the region during the first part of the day. With this some of this heat and humidity will return. With this front there could be a few showers and thunderstorms.  A cold front will work through later in the day into Saturday night. Winds will shift back to the west-northwest, likely bringing more wildfire smoke into the region. Ahead of the approaching cold front widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely. The SPC has placed the Middle Atlantic, Pennsylvania, New York State into southwestern New England at a Slight to Moderate risk of scattered severe thunderstorms Saturday. Potentially damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours will be the primary danger.

Sunday we will see cooler drier air gradually move in from the northwest to southeast, this will make for a much cooler and less humid day. The wildfire smoke should also be much lower. There will still be the chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms. But the coverage should be much less than Saturday.

Monday will see seasonal temperatures as high pressure noses into the region. Monday should also feature a lot of sun.  Tuesday will see tropical moisture likely pushing north, while a cold front approaches from the west. The combination of these two will bring rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Wednesday will see the cold front exiting the region, leading to improving conditions during the second half of the day. Thursday high pressure will move into the region providing tranquil weather.  As long as those fires keep going in south and central Canada, there will be the daily threat of wildfire smoke.

 Drought

Looking at today’s drought map we can see overall conditions are unchanged from last week. Some areas saw drought expand while others saw drought slight shrink.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released today showed 1% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 8% in severe drought, 13% in moderate drought, and 14% as abnormally dry compared to 2%, 10%, 13%, and 12%, respectively, last week.

 

Tropical

The tropics remain generally unchanged from yesterday.

 

The NHC continues to outline that area in the northeast Gulf at a 20% risk of development. We’re likely to see low pressure form over the northeastern Gulf by Sunday.  If this comes up the East Coast, conditions for development won’t be all that great. A large part of that will be due to the cold fronts dropping into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic this weekend. These jet stream dips will make for moderate to at times strong wind shear that will impact the disturbance.

They still have that tropical wave just a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa at 10% risk.  but models seem to agree that any disturbance and development risk will be eliminated by Sunday. But the chance of this developing into anything tropical is very low.

 Have a great day