Will today be a repeat of Saturday?

This will go into the severe risk for today and touch on Tropical Storm Bertha.

Surface chart and radar.

We have a low-pressure system over east central Canada. We have a leading warm front lifting into the region. We also have a strong negative tilted upper-level trough with a slow moving trailing cold front. The trough orientation is going to boost the severe potential.  How severe we get will depend on how quickly we can clear out the clouds.

We also have a few shortwave troughs out ahead of the warm front that are producing showers and some thunderstorms. These are currently moving into New England.

If these storms blow up over the Ohio Valley into western New York State and Pennsylvania that could limit the severity of the storms over the eastern half of the region.

The warm front will continue to move north and east and promote southern winds that is going to be bringing in very warm and juicy air, with dew points in the upper 60’s and 70’s.   There will be enough instability that a Saturday repeat is possible. The setup will support thunderstorm clusters and isolated embedded supercells. All of this is eerily similar to what we saw over last weekend.  

 

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has the Enhanced Risk over most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over far northern Pennsylvania, most of New York State, including NYC and Long Island as well as western Connecticut and extreme southwest Massachusetts

The risk will include damaging winds, torrential downpours, large hail, frequent lightning. There is also elevated tornado risk across most of Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, New Jersey, extending across southern New York State, including NYC and Long Island up into Central New York State. Training thunderstorms will bring the risk for Flash Flooding.

Those most at risk of seeing several rounds of widespread severe weather will be across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. For most of New York State into southwest New England, the risk should include a couple of broken lines with scattered thunderstorms, with isolated severe storms.  The severe risk over western New England will be Marginal, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

Morning showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the warm front, will give way to a higher number of showers and storms during the afternoon into well in the evening. The greatest time for severe storms will be 1 pm thru 11 pm.

 The I-95 Corridor could have a bad commute, if those wild cards don’t weaken the storm potential.  

Wednesday will still have that cold front slowly pushing east.

The Storm Prediction Center has Marginal Risk across eastern New England as well as northern and eastern Maryland, Delaware and far southern New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over southern Maryland and Delaware.

The primary area to worry about severe storms will be down across southern New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware into Virginia. There is a chance for strong storms in New England, but I think the risk is rather low, it’s certainly lower than it is in the northern Middle Atlantic Region.

 High pressure will be approaching tomorrow night; this will move in overhead for Thursday Friday and over the Weekend. Temperatures will be average to below average temperatures and low humidity. The high pressure will depart Sunday night. Then Monday a cold front will come through bringing a chance for showers and storms. Another cold front will come through on Wednesday again with the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

 

   

Tropical Storm Bertha

 

TD 2 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha last evening. She has max sustained winds of 50 mph, a central pressure of 997 mb and is crawling northwest at 5 mph.  

Looking at the satellite image,

 

 

Bertha is being affected by considerable north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. This shear will increase during the next couple of days. The strong shear is giving Bertha a lopsided look.  All this shear along with the dry air on the northern side. should limit Bertha from strengthening a lot before her center reaches the coast.  Most of the atmospheric moisture is south of Bertha.

The Gulf Coast will see tropical storm conditions from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana Tonight and Wednesday.

Regardless of farther development, Bertha is going to be a rain maker. But the good news is her highest rainfall totals will remain well offshore.

Those with Interests in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of Bertha.