Tropical conditions
It’s been quite some time since I talked about the tropics.
It has been very quiet, with only two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, which
formed in the Gulf earlier this summer. It’s normal for the season to start off
slow. But the strengthening El Nino is already having a big impact on the
season. As I’ve said before El Nino brings greater wind shear over the Atlantic;
typically, the stronger the El Ninos the more disrupting it will be.
The SST in the Atlantic Basin are also a big issue. SST in
the Gulf are very warm, but that part of the basin has been dealing with very
high wind shear. The Caribbean isn’t as
warm as the Gulf. And the Main Development Region (MDR), is quite cool. I talked
about the Atlantic Nino in the first El Nino post a couple of weeks ago. This is going to work hand in hand to suppress
tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic this season.
Our total ACE so far this season is only at 2.6 units. There
is a lot of dry air and Saharan dust sitting over the Tropical Atlantic..
In the last El Nino post I did, I talked about how the 1982 hurricane season was extremely quiet. 1982 was a very strong El Nino, With the current El Nino looking to be one of, if not the strongest El Nino on the historic record. That is certainly a possibility for the 2026 hurricane season.
We do have a couple of tropical waves over the Atlantic,
these are being impacted by the dry air. The dry dusty air should stop any development
from these. The models are having a
difficult time with the pattern; some have been indicating development. But the
factors I’ve listed along with the MJO in phase 6 heading into phase 7 Isn’t a
good phase for tropical activity in the Atlantic. You really want it in phase 2 and 3. The JMA CHI200
anomalies chart agrees with the MJO and is showing sinking air over the
Atlantic. Blue is rising air with increased tropical activity, yellow is
sinking air with decreased tropical activity. If the Atlantic is in the yellow, it
doesn’t mean there can’t be tropical cyclones, it just means it is very
difficult to get long track systems to approach the CONUS.
All of this means the Atlantic is going to continue to sleep
for the foreseeable future.
Drought Outlook.
The start of August has seen quite a bit of rain across the Middle Atlantic, Southeast New York State into Southern New England, helping improve the drought conditions affecting those parts of the region. But remember the drought monitor only considers rain that fell before Tuesday afternoon.
Extreme drought was erased across Delaware into Maryland. Severe
drought was erased from parts of eastern Massachusetts. Moderate drought was
removed from Connecticut and contracted in southeastern New York, Rhode Island,
Massachusetts, and southwestern New Hampshire. Abnormal dryness eased in parts
of southeastern New York, Connecticut, western Rhode Island, and western
Massachusetts. However, Western and Northern New York State Across New England
has seen less rain that was very hit and miss, which has allowed drought
conditions to see some intensification severe drought expanded in southeastern
New Hampshire, while moderate drought spread in Maine and abnormal dryness was
introduced or increased in coverage in northern Maine, northeastern Vermont,
and northern New York.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released this morning showed
2% of New York State and New England in severe drought, 10% in moderate drought, and
22% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 15%, and 18%, respectively, last
week.
Well that is it....have a great night!
Yesterday was nasty,Dew Point at 78 Temperature at 92,I think the R.F. was at 103.The El.niño certainly has shut the tropics down.Does this El Niño have a part in the Super Drought out in the Colorado area and the area’s that support the Colorado River and its Tributaries.I know this summer is a bust for rain out there but will that ridge break down so they can get snow this Winter.That area is at a point that even with a record setting Winter it would not fill that lake.I have doubts that it will ever get back to average because of all the development that Lake Mead now must supply water to.I don’t know if they will ever get the power they need from the Hover Dam Turbines.They are down too only three running.Someone did not think this through.
ReplyDeleteI'm fairly certain that your Winter outlook coming up will not be very White or too Cold.Last year you were already talking about a Snow lovers Winter,and you were right on the money.A warmish Winter will be appreciated by millions due to oil prices.Have a Great weekend.
Great question While the current El Nino doesn't have a direct link to the ongoing severe drought in the Colorado river basin. It is influencing the significance of it and duration. Typically strong El Nino's Like The 1982- 1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 and 2016 super El Ninos, bring wet and snowy winters to the Rockies. But during the summers they bring hot and dry air masses to the western United States.
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