Things will cool way off over the next week!

 

Over the next 5-7 days, we’re going to be in a fast flow with predominate ridge out west with overall troughing in the east.  Over the course of the next several days several shortwaves will move along the northern Jet.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

As a quick moving cold front moves through, clouds will fill in throughout the day Friday and around and along the front there will be a few passing showers. But it won’t be raining most of the time.

The weekend

 

 

On Saturday the front will continue to slide south, as high pressure drops out of Canada. Behind the front it will be cool but pleasant. The air will be drier for that north of the frontal boundary. The front will be south of the Mason Dixon Line those across Maryland, Delaware and Southern New Jersey. Will be dealing with more or less isolated rain showers.

Later Saturday into Sunday tropical moisture will be working northward. This will help augment a small area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. As the shortwave in the northern stream interacts a little with the shortwave in the southern stream moving over the Delmarva Peninsula. We’re likely to see the front meander north a bit, but the high pressure and dry air will limit how far it can come. But southern Pennsylvania along with Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey will see clouds build in along with some rain showers. The tropical influence should allow for rain to be locally heavy at times across Maryland, Delaware, into southern and central New Jersey. We will have that disturbance in Canada, that will bring the chance for some rain showers across northern parts of our region.

Generally, the weekend will see seasonal and cool weather for the weekend

Next Week

 

Monday into Wednesday will see high pressure setup and we will see temperatures become even cooler.  Nighttime lows will be very chilly bringing the chance for freezing and frost, especially across New York State into northern Pennsylvania and New England. The higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could see overnight temperatures in the upper teens through the 20’s. By Thursday the high pressure will have pushed off the Coast, the flow will turn southernly allowing for temperatures to be come seasonal, with a beautiful end of the week.

 

 

 

 

 

Damp cloudy but leading to a taste of summer.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

High pressure is off the coast, with a southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm making it feel more like August than October.  Today into tomorrow we’re going to be dealing with above average temperatures, but these unseasonably warm conditions won’t last. As temperatures fall back by the weekend.

Tonight, and tomorrow a slow-moving cold front is going to move through, bringing scattered showers.  Isolated showers will move into western and northern New York State this evening. The showers will become more widespread during the overnight into Friday morning.  The same can be said for northern New England, with a few showers late this evening and tonight. The rain will become more widespread Friday morning and the first part of Friday afternoon. As the cold front continues to pass through the region on Friday rain showers will make it into northwest Pennsylvania mid to late morning. These showers will continue to push northwest to southeast and push into eastern Pennsylvania and central New England late Friday afternoon and evening. As the front moves closer rain will move into southern New England, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania evening and night, into early Saturday morning.  This won’t be a huge rainmaker.  Ahead of the cold front on Friday temperatures will be very warm and it will feel a bit muggy.

High pressure will move back in place for the weekend By Saturday afternoon the front will be off the southeast New England Coast and will be stalling south of the Mason Dixon Line. Temperatures will be running seasonal to slightly below average over the weekend. Sunday we’re going to see another cold front north of the Great Lakes push northwest to southeast. The front will be moisture starved, but it will be capable of some isolated rain showers. Behind these front temperatures are going fall and become below to well below average for the first part of October. For Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday high pressure will be sitting overhead. Humidity will be very low, leading to cold well below average temperatures. Tuesday thru Thursday, will feature the chance for frost/freeze issues for parts of the region. Northern parts of the region will likely see the end of the growing season.

The pattern is evolving

The winter pattern is starting to become much more noticeable; we’re seeing a cold air and storminess set up over Siberia along with the Chukchi Peninsula and the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, the cold and stormy conditions extend across Alaska into the Yukon, Northwest Territories and northern British Columbia. This is October, so this is expected for this time of year.   Over the next couple of weeks this is going to continue with strong storms developing.

These areas of low pressure will move across northern Canada. This is leading to the pattern I talked about in the winter outlook. Due to the very strong El Nino heating things up near to the equator and that colder air heading south out of Canada. The subtropical jet is really going to become very strong. Those storms in the Pacific Jet are going to drop into the West Coast By the middle of October into the first part of November; these storms are going make for an active subtropical Jet as they move west to east along it. 

All of this is covered in great detail in the winter outlook