Warming next week!

 Current conditions

There is strong high pressure extending out of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The cold front that went through is now off the coast of New England and is sitting just south of our region. Satellite is showing we have a lot of cloudiness Over a large part of New York state and northern into central new England. There is more in the way of a mix of sun and clouds Over Pennsylvania Southern New England and  the northern Middle Atlantic region.

Conditions across the region have temperatures  a little cool, but the light rain that fell as the front moved across the region is over and is dry today. The high pressure centered up over the eastern Great Lakes is going  to be dropping south and east heading towards the coast. Tomorrow that cold front is going to start head back north as a warm front.  As the high pressure moves across and eventually off-shore we're going to see more of a southern flow that's going to allow temperatures to warm a bit for our Sunday.

We're going to see a series of weak little disturbances roll through for much of next week. These are going to keep things unsettled.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Next week

As that warm front lifts northward for Sunday and Monday it will bring some rain showers. Even though it's going to be cloudy on Monday temperatures are going to spike and become much warmer.  Then for later Sunday through Monday as the other part of the system with a cold front approaches. When's will become more gusty. We're going to see more in the way of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms. The warming trend is going to continue, but the rain and thunderstorms will still be around for Tuesday, Isolated storms could be on strong side; as these disturbances keep rolling through.  Wednesday looks to be a bit unsettled Across New York State into northern and maybe central New England as another disturbance moves across Canada. Much of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey should escape most of the unsettled conditions. Accompanying this system we're going to see a slightly stronger cold front approaching and dropping across the region on Thursday. Ahead of the front temperatures are going to become very warm, due to gusty southern winds. As the cold front advances we're going to see rain showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the frontal boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to severe.

Images below courtesy of tropical tidbits

Even though next week is going to be active and unsettled. Monday will be the beginning of a warming trend. As the week goes on It's going to feel more like summer than spring. With Thursday likely being the warmest day of the week. Behind the front we are going to cool off a little bit For friday into the weekend.

Still chilly but it's warming up!

 

The high pressure is now sitting directly overhead, Providing completely dry conditions and lots of sun for the region. 

After a very cold start we are starting to warm a bit under that April sun. The sun is quickly melting all the snow we got over the last couple of days. On the satellite we can see the system off the coast that is racing out into the Atlantic. We also have some precipitation up over the upper Great Lakes ahead of that frontal system over the Upper Midwest. The system in the midwest Isn't really going to impact our region as it's going to pass well toward north as it heads into Canada. But we do have a system that is further north up in Canada that is going to approach us later this week and over the weekend.

Until then, the high pressure that's overhead right now is going to provide nice weather. we are going to see temperatures continue to become warmer, as the flow becomes more southernly.

Tomorrow we are going to see a front approaching. But this is going to end up stalling out just north and west of the region Thursday into Friday. As the High pressure continues to drop south east and moving away. Southern winds are going to pick up and it's going to become quite gusty on Thursday. But that flow is going to direct much warmer air into the region So our temperatures are going to end up 15 to 20 °F warmer than they are today.

Where's the frontal boundary close by We could see a few showers South and east Into northern and western New York State down into western Pennsylvania Thursday evening into Thursday night. Friday we're going to see the cold front moving through with rain showers along and ahead of the frontal boundary. The rain will be reaching the Middle Atlantic Late friday into early Saturday morning. This isn't going to be a major rainfall event. But many of us can use all the water we can get! Friday ahead of the front it is going to continue to be mild. Behind the front temperatures are going to slightly cool down Friday and Saturday.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Sunday is going to see high pressure setup once again overhead, We're going to see a warm front Lifting into the region Sunday into Monday. This is going to allow temperatures once again to become quite mild. Move the front There will be a chance for isolated to scatter rain showers. For Tuesday We are going to see A cold front Approach This looks to slow down Possibly stall New York state and to Pennsylvania. The frontal boundary will bring rain showers along with a chance for a few thunderstorms. This frontal boundary It's going to be meandering around a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday. Keeping things a little unsettled with a wide variations in temperature depending on how that boundary sets up.

I work very hard on long range forecasting. This sort of thing is very difficult to find on social media and other weather outlets. So I do hope you all check out yesterday's post That was part 2 of a post I did a few days earlier than that that was talking about The developing El Nino and what that could possibly mean going forward. These sort of post Haven't been getting the views that I would like them to get To justify the amount of time I put into them. So please take a look and let me know what you think.

Here is the NMME July to October forecast For global SSTS. That east based El Nino does show up very well.

Have a great day!

Some early thoughts on the 2026 hurricane season

 The hurricane season is another more than a month and a half away. But everyone is starting to wonder about how it will end up. So I wanted to go over the current setup. As well as  some of the possibilities that could happen. 

This post is conning to tie-in to the El Nino post I did a few days ago.

Latest El Nino Post

Here is a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies

I've gone over these El nino southern oscillation  index areas many times over the past few years. So I don't see a reason to go deep into that again. All I will say is that Nino region 3.4 is the one that's officially recognized and monitored to determine what the state of the ENSO is in.

We're officially in an El Nino watch. Which means an El Nino Is expected to develop this year. The idea of a El Nino during this upcoming Atlantic hurricanes season Is a big deal as far as implications. In the past I have talked about the warm waters in the Atlantic And how they can lead to lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. Normally this higher wind shear will reduce the number of tropical cyclones that develop in the main development region of the Atlantic ocean.

The 2023 hurricane season

But not every El Nino brings a below average hurricane season to the Atlantic Basin. The most recent example of this Would be the 2023 hurricane season. 2023 was one of the strongest El Nino's on record.

Image credit International Research Institute.

As I've said many times before this chart is a model forecast for the areas that are being monitored For El Nino. When the sea surface temperature anomaly is at least 1° centigrade Above average it's considered a moderate El Nino. When the temperature anomaly is 1.5°C above average it is considered a strong El Nino, an anomaly of 2.0°C or above Is considered a super El Nino.

 But in spite of that, the season thumbed it's nose at the El Nino  season. During the 2023 season, there were a total of 20 named systems, seven of which became hurricanes With three of those becoming major hurricanes. Along with that the accumulated cyclone energy rating was 148.2 which is well above average. Ace is an index that takes the wind speed and the lifespan of the tropical cyclone and adds them together. For the season, the ace index for each individual tropical cyclone is added together to come up with a total for the season . An average season is considered 73-126. The season is considered extremely active When the ace is at 159.6 or higher. So we can see 2023 was very active.

Image credit national hurricane center 

Why was 2023 so active in spite of an El Nino?

Here's a look For the July 2023 SST anomalies from the IRI archive

The El Nino clearly stands out in the equatorial pacific. But we can also see that the Atlantic basin is also very warm. This overall temperature reduction in the contrast Between the pacific and the Atlantic resulted in lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin.

This idea Is going to be important When we move forward. For that reason 2023 will end up being a good analogue for 2026.

Here is an SST comparison for this year compared to the previous three super El Ninos

Even though 1982, 1997 and 2015 were all super El Ninos The SST contrast between the Atlantic and the pacific are much different. This is a very important thing to keep in mind When we try to figure out how the 2026 hurricane season could behave.

Here's a look at the model forecasted precipitation and temperature patterns for July through October. Credit for these go to Ben Noll and the Washington Post.

The models do show that the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic look to be a bit wet and a little cooler. This idea does tie-in to what I've been saying over the last couple of months.

The 2026 hurricane season.

Image credit International research Institute.

Image credit International research institute

Below is the ECMWF Forecast for 2026. Showing a very strong El Nino. The model is indicating that this could be one of the strongest if not the strongest El Nino on record.

Looking at the above graphics from the IRI we can see that a strong El Nino is favored and that it looks too quickly develop. I've been talking about the relative strength of the developing El Nino in several of my last post on the ENSO.

When we look back up at the top of the post and look at the current SST anomalies.  A couple of things stand out. First we can see that small spot in the equatorial Pacific south of Hawaii that is cooler than average. But everywhere else along the global equator SST anomalies are warmer than average. We can also see that the Atlantic basin overall is also above average similar to what it was in 2023. The Atlantic Basin is only going to get warmer as we get closer to and during summer 2026.

As the water in Nino region 3.4 continues the warm as we head towards summer. How much is it really going to stand out? It could just kind of blend into the rest of it. If so how much will the El Nino impact The Atlantic Basin during the heart of the hurricane season?

Temperature contrast is an important factor in trying to forecast for the weather, be it local or global. For that reason we can't only look at the ENSO Nino region 3.4 index value by itself, To try and figure out what's going to happen this hurricane season. For that reason We have to look at the relative Nino 3.4 index. 

Image credit Australian bureau of meteorology.

With all the warm water around the globe. We just can't take a look at the nino region 3.4 temperature anomaly and say we're in a strong or even super El Nino. As I said above contrast is very important.

Back in 2023-2024 the warm SSTS in the Atlantic main development region overrode the strong El Nino that was present. The question we have to ask...Will that same thing happened this year?

One thing is for sure, this year's el nino it's going to have to be much stronger than past super El Nino's if it wants to claim that title; the strength for this year will have to be  2.5 °C to over 3.0 °C. This is the only way a super El Nino can make its presence known on the global pattern. It remains to be seen if the El Nino can become that strong. 

Because of the reasons I have shown I think This coming hurricane season is going to be at least average. With a strong likelihood of the season becoming above average as far as named system numbers go! But If this isn't taken into consideration, some people and outlets could get a big surprise during this upcoming hurricane season.

This is all just something to think about.

Is it February or April?

 I woke up to between  4 and 5 inches of snow. Snow is still falling but it's much lighter than it was earlier this morning.

We have a cold front moving across the region with high pressure centered  over Lake Michigan. This is causing snow showers that are also lake enhanced over New York tate As well as some snow up over northern New England, with some mix and rain showers over southern New England. 

With the snow,  blustery winds and very chilly conditions. We have to ask, Is this February or April?

The infrared satellite image shows only clear skiez over the Midwest and Great Lakes

Those warmer temperatures out ahead of that cold front are going to be falling during the day As the cold front continues to drift east. The snow and rain Is going to be lessening and we're gonna be drying up as we get later into the afternoon. With many of us seen more in the way of. sun. Is the high pressure To our west Drifts in and sits overhead.  Winds are going to become much lighter. This and clear skies tonight into tomorrow morning is going make it very cold for this time of year.

Tomorrow later in the day High pressure is going to start to drift to the east Ahead of another approaching frontal system. Winds will start to become a little bit more southerly allowing our temperatures to warm up a bit. We should be dry during the day tomorrow across the region. The high pressure is going to move off the coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  This will allow The cold front up over the Great Lakes to slowly start approaching the region. Temperatures are going to continue to warm on Thursday. Thursday will also feature winds becoming gusty. There could be some rain across western parts of the region later Thursday late Thursday afternoon into the evening. As the cold front gets closer These rain showers and a chance for a few higher elevation snow showers will become more widespread Thursday night into Friday. The actual cold front Friday night and during Saturday.  During the day friday and Saturday showers will be scattered but it won't be a washout. The region will turn briefly cooler but dry behind a cold front, As high pressure sets up once again for later Saturday and Sunday. And then temperatures will try to rebound again for the first part of next week. Monday Monday later in the afternoon we are going to have a trough with a cold front approaching the region. This will bring rain showers and the chance for high elevation snow showers across the region later in the day on Monday into Tuesday. Then high pressure will move back in for later Tuesday into Wednesday. I warned you about these wild swings in temperature. This looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

The week starts chilly

 A look at the surface chart and radar.

High pressure is in control with very chilly temperatures across the region. We do have a cold front up across Canada that is attached to low pressure up over the Great Lakes. This low pressure is going to be diving toward the region this evening into tomorrow. Some of y'all woke up to very limited light accumulations of some snow. On the radar We can see that snow is  continuing across part of New York State, with a few isolated snow showers across New England.

As the clipper moves through temperatures are going to be cold enough for snow across the northern half of New York state And northern into central new England. Generally accumulations will be light with a dusting to an inch or so. With accumulations  of 1-3 inches possible in the higher elevations. Parts of the Tug Hill could end up seeing a bit more than that. Where at least a few inches is going to be possible. High pressure is going be building in from our south later Tuesday. This area of high pressure is going to continue to move in our direction and set up overhead by Wednesday. With all this, the next few days are going to be quite chilly Tomorrow most likely being a bit chillier than today. Then overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning It's gonna get quite cold so those with outdoor plants and stuff, if you have planted or have plants sitting out. All of this will have to be covered or brought in.

Midweek into early next week!

For Wednesday afternoon the southwest flow associated with the high pressure is going to be the start of a warming trend. As the high pressure drops south and East and pushes off the coast  by Thursday. We're going to have a cold frontal boundary sitting to our north and west. All of this is going to allow for a stronger southwest flow. That is going to really start to warm us up. Thursday into Friday It will be unsettled but showers should be more isolated than not.

Friday night into Saturday The cold front is going to be approaching and moving across the region. We're likely going to see a line of showers and thunderstorms moving across the region ahead of and along that front. Friday will get rather windy. But the thunderstorms should be more in the way of garden variety and there shouldn't be a lot of or any severe weather. Behind the cold front we're gonna cool down a bit. with temperatures becoming more seasonable. Then later Sunday into Monday we're going to have a warm front lifting into the region Before another cold front comes through later Monday into Tuesday cooling us back off.

As I have been saying this temperature merry go round is going to be continuing at Least for the next couple of weeks. But our overall temperatures are slowly going to be begin to become warmer

That's it have a great day!

Easter weekend and beyond!

 It got very warm yesterday. However the first of two cold fronts dropped through yesterday and into the night has cooled us back off a little. But Saturday's temperature are still likely to be slightly above average. These frontal systems moving through over the next few days are also going to keep us  unsettled.

Current conditions

We can see that warm front lifting toward western Pennsylvania. As this advances temperatures will rebound a bit. There could some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanying the front. Then the second stronger cold front is going to drop through the region later Saturday into Sunday.

We will likely see a line of rain and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon into Saturday Night. Some of these storms will likely be strong to severe. The best timing for any severe weather is looking to be Saturday evening into Sunday morning. So we are going to have the chance for a nocturnal severe event over the Western half of New York State and Pennsylvania.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

The  SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather across western New York State and western Pennsylvania. The Marginal Risk is east of there extending into central Pennsylvania and central into northern New York State. These areas can expect scattered Strong to severe thunderstorms Starting this evening and going through tonight.

The main risk from these thunderstorms will be damaging winds. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times, Also expect frequent lightning. The risk for hail is low but we can't rule out at least some small hail. There will also be the risk for a few isolated tornadoes.

With all the rain we've seen this week; there will be  localized flood issues across the region. So we'll need to keep an eye on the streams and rivers and be prepared to take action and evacuate if the water starts to rise.

Out ahead of the cold front conditions will become very windy for later Saturday into Sunday. Easter Sunday will see conditions improving west to east as the day goes on. There will also be the risk for isolated strong to possibly severe storms around the Delmarvia. The main risk will be strong gusty thunderstorms.

Saturday night into Sunday There will also likely be snow showers on the northern edge of that frontal boundary Accumulating snow and ice will be an issue. A trace to 3" of snow will be possible Across far northern New York State and northern Vermont into northern Maine. There will also be risk for some freezing rain. Those with the most likely chance of seeing some freezing rain will be from the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont up through northern Maine where a  trace to 0.2 inches of ice will be possible.

Next week

Temperatures will be even cooler for Monday and Tuesday. Along with the sharp cool down will be the chance for snow showers for northern into central New York State and northern into central New England. A trace to 3 or 4" will be possible for these areas. This will be especially true in the typical higher elevations. Areas downwind of lake Ontario and lake Erie also will likely, once again be dealing with some like effect snow.

Wednesday we'll see high pressure move in; With this, we are going to see temperatures start to recover and start a slow climb to warmer temperatures. For Thursday into Friday a warm front will be lifting back through the region. So our temperatures should be hanging around seasonal levels.But then later on Friday a cold front is going to start dropping into the region. 

After this we're gonna see strong high pressure set up over the southeast This is going to pump heat Into our region right into  the 3rd week of April

The current drought and.latest on El Nino Southern Oscillation

 Drought across the region

It's April, so it's time to start discussing our current drought conditions

Over the next 2-7 days 2-4 " of rain is looking likely for a large part of the northeast.  Bought over the 6-10 day The middle Atlantic and into southern New England Will likely see below average precipitation.

Looking at the US route monitor release today. We can see New England Eastern Pennsylvania Is experiencing moderate too severe drought conditions. There is even a small small area along the southwest coast of Maine that is seen extreme drought conditions. Other parts of the region are abnormally dry.  Parts of New Jersey Are also seeing drought conditions slightly worsening. So the region needs all the rain we can get.

But due to all the recent rain it's not all gloom and doom. There are areas that are seen drought conditions improving.The

The current stats show that 1% of the Northeast is in extreme drought, 11% is in Severe drought, 22% is in moderate Drought and 25% is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The current  El Nino Southern Oscillation Parameters

Sea surface temperature anomalies for January of 2026

Current Global SST anomaly.

We can see that la Nina is more or less dead

I'm still thinking that this summer is going to be at least a moderate east based El Nino. There are indications this could become a strong or even super El Nino.

I showed the different strengths of the phases of the ENSO in the past. But here is a graphic that shows the relative strengths of the various El Nino and la Nina classifications.

Graphic courtesy of the weather network

There's a lot of model data out there showing how quickly and strong 2026 El Nino is going to to develop.  But how do we know the models are telling the truth?  We Can look at physical data to determine that question.

Here's a look at the current wind data.

The latest 850 MB vector wind anomalies.

All that warm water That was pushed into the western pacific By the trade winds during the la Nina. The trade winds have reversed and are now west to east. That Orange area over the western pacific is showing westerly windburst The chart is indicating that this windburst Is very strong. This Is one of the major reasons that the El Nino is developing so quickly. 

There is a lot of very warm subsurface water that is heading east towards the ENSO monitoring region. The above image is showing Extreme extreme extremely warm Water Between 300 to 600 hundred  feet below the surface. Once this reaches the eastern Equatorial Pacific things are gonna change very quickly. As these temperatures rise up and abruptly change these neutral ENSO relatively cool conditions to a full fledged El Nino.

All of this is showing The very likely probability of a strong El nino event.

In other post, I showed how El Nino Influences the Atlantic hurricane season. So all I will say here, Is there El Nino typically brings average to below average tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. This is due to stronger trade winds injecting more wind shear. As well as conditions supporting more in the way of atmospheric  stability over the Atlantic basin. What less active doesn't mean no impact. There have been El Ninos that ended up seeing above average activity. Take for example 2023. But we've also had below average seasons that still saw major hurricanes Strike the US. Examples of this are hurricane Andrew and hurricane Michael.

Possible fall and winter impacts.

Typically during El Nino There is cold air to the north And warm air to the south. Because of this, you see a strong storm storm track come off the Pacific into Southern California and the Southwest United States.

More times than not this southern storm track ends up cutting up over the Great Lakes. This track typically allows the warm southern air being drawn north to stay on the right side of the storm track keeping the East Coast warm. 

This could drastically lower snowfall amounts for the season up here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic

What else?

Sea surface temperatures alone are not enough. When it comes to long-term ENSO impacts. So we also have to look at that interaction with the atmosphere. The stratosphere has been in the jumble since 2022. During the spring of that year Tonga volcanic eruption occurred in the South Pacific. The eruption ejected a record amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. All of that moisture is still impacting the pattern And most likely will for the next several years.  To know more about this eruption; go back to my post on the volcano in that year.

The volcanic event aloud the polar vortex to become disrupted quite a bit this past winter. The same atmospheric disruption, is also going to have at least some implications; for the El Nino and atmospheric interaction that's going to occur over the summer into the fall. Currently we see the atmospheric interaction with the developing El Nino lagging.  With the global SST pattern the way it is; and the stratosphere behaving as it is. It's a Good indication that this years El Nino will be a different animal than we've seen in the past and could cause surprises that many people aren't anticipating.

So even if this develops into a strong or even super El Nino The atmosphere might tell a different story. Just something to keep in mind!

Here's a diagram that shows impacts of tropical forcing on convection. With an east based El Nino as the result.

Well that's it