The heat returns Monday.

 

A quick post on the week ahead!

Surface chart and radar and satellite.

 

 

For the vast majority of us, it has been a beautiful weekend so far. Today is going to be mostly dry. High pressure pushes the rain to our south. Today we can enjoy less humid air. We have that stalled frontal boundary to our south.  Looking at the radar we can see isolated showers over parts of the Middle Atlantic. Some of these could make it into Maryland and Delaware. So, DC could see a rogue showers, but the best chance for any rain will be across the Shenandoah Valley.

We have a huge high-pressure ridge building out west. As we move through this week this is going to move into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This heat dome is going to trap a lot of heat under it, from the Rockies into the Plains and Midwest.  The Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will be on the periphery of this heat dome. But we’re still going to start to warm tomorrow as it gets closer to our region.  As a whole this week, won’t feature many chances for rain. But that doesn’t mean it will be completely dry for everyone.

The dome is going to try and continue to push east through Friday. But we’re going to have low pressure setting up over the Canadian Maritimes; this is going to start to build into the Northeast on Tuesday. So, Tuesday will likely be the peak of the heat and humidity in the northern parts of the region.  As the backdoor cold front approaches, some showers and thunderstorms will build out ahead of it. This will bring the risk for some strong to severe storms for northern New York State and across northern New England. The timing looks to be late afternoon and into Tuesday night.  The trough will drop down across northern New England and Northern New York State on Wednesday. Winds will become quite gusty, with gust upwards of 35 mph possible. As the trough continues to drop through New York State and New England dew point will start to drop.  The southern half of the region will see their warmest and most humid day on Wednesday. But then the heat will start to back off or Thursday, as dewpoints and temperatures start to fall. As the first in a series of cold fronts move across the region.  These cold fronts will be fairly weak, but they will bring the chance for scattered clouds and scattered thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday especially across southern parts of our region.

The trough will hang around the region over the weekend, with variable clouds and isolated showers.

Next week, we’re going to have that cooler air that’s up in Canada, drop down into our region. This is going to allow the Great Lakes and our region to stay generally cool with seasonal to below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

 

Heat dome out west Next week!

Surface chart and radar and satellite.

The warm front has lifted through, and the cold front is moving south out of Canada. The front is slowing and is in the process of stalling. Radar is showing isolated rain showers over the region; this is especially true over southern Pennsylvania near the boundary. There will be the chance for few scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers closer to that boundary.

The cold front looks to settle to our south over the weekend, allowing for mostly dry, warm conditions. But it will feel pleasantly warm both Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday there is a chance for a few showers and or thunderstorms across southern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, with the rest of the region staying generally dry.   Sunday will feature clearing leading to a mostly sunny day. Sunday is looking to be dry across the entire region. The front is slowing and is in the process of stalling. Radar is showing isolated rain showers over the region; this is especially true over southern Pennsylvania near the boundary. 

The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across southern New York State, Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. 

 

Tomorrow there is a Marginal Risk over the same general area. 

The pattern is adjusting as high pressure starts to build a ridge out of the Southwest.  This high-pressure ridge is going to build a giant heat dome over the Rockies into the Plains and will extend well into western and central Canada.  As the heat dome builds into the northern Plains this weekend, the extreme heat much like what we saw last week will build under the dome. As the dome continues to strengthen and build, the heat will expand eastward starting around Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday will be very warm and humid. But it won’t be near as hot as we were last week.

Instead of breaking down later next week, the heat dome is expected to retrograde back west and restrengthen over the Plains. This overall pattern looks to persist through much of the remainder of July. The dome will start to shift west on Friday; then over the weekend, cooler and drier air is going to drop into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. The heat ridge pulling back west will be partly to do with a tropical system that looks to form west of Mexico and Baha California. 

As we saw last week, we’re going to see Shortwave pieces of energy become ridge riders. These are the severe thunderstorms that develop along the northern edge of the heat dome due to the instability. This will likely start on Monday. The Northeast will be on the edge of the dome.  Several mesoscale convective systems (MCS) will be a concern. The hot, muggy air over the region, will allow these MCS to be a possible issue for Tuesday through Thursday.  While it too soon to know where thunderstorm complexes will develop and setup. The heat ridge will be close enough that some of these storms could come out of the Ohio Valley and possibility make it into Western Pennsylvania and maybe Western New York State. The risk for these storms won’t be near as high as it was last week.  For now, the potential is there, we will just have to wait to get closer for more details.

This general pattern looks to stay with us for July and likely into August.  There will be a ridge out west and an overall trough over the east. This will keep the northeast and Middle Atlantic Region fairly active, with seasonal to at times below average temperatures.

  

Have a great weekend!

Humidity and thunderstorms return!

Surface chart and radar 

High pressure is still influencing our weather today, but it’s starting to drift east and off the coast.  We have a stationary boundary just south of the Mason Dixon Line, this is going to move north as a warm front. Yesterday was comfortable; but today is going to see dew points and temperatures start to climb.  The heat won’t be as oppressive as it was last week, but it is still going to be hot and muggy. There are a few showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front over Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic.

As the warm front advances today, we’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong with a chance for isolated severe. The danger will be gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning. The biggest danger will be heavy downpours. With the tropical nature of the atmosphere, these storms pose a risk for some flooding, especially where we see training thunderstorms (storms that follow the same track) Those with the greatest danger of this will be across Maryland into Delaware, New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. The NWS has a flood watch in this area.  The chance for rain and thunderstorms will continue tonight and during the overnight.

 

The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic. There is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms across northern New York State and northern New England

 

There is a cold front approaching out of Canada. This will be dropping out of the northwest tonight and tomorrow. As this moves through tomorrow, there will be the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but there is the chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms.  These stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, downpours and frequent lightning.

 Tomorrow night the front will stall out. Behind the front temperatures and humidity return to seasonal levels. There will be a chance for rain showers and maybe some thunderstorms across southern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic, while the rest of the region dries out. For Saturday as the cold front continues to settle to our south, most of the region should be dry as high pressure presses into the region. But the farther south you are the better your chance of seeing an isolated showers. Sunday will see the high pressure in complete control. Sunday will continue to see seasonal conditions, and it looks to be mostly sunny and dry.

 The nice weather looks to carry into Monday into Tuesday as the seasonably warm temperatures hang around.  Tuesday will see the high pressure start to drift east; this will allow the temperatures to start to climb. Wednesday is looking to be hot and humid, with the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Thursday is looking to be a rinse and repeat.

 Have a great day!

 

 

 

Nice, Sunny and a bit Warmer

 Surface chart, radar and satellite.

 

 

 

 

 We have high pressure over the region providing nice weather. A large part of the region is seeing a lot of Sun, but there is a mix of Sun and Clouds over western Pennsylvania. There is a warm front currently around the Tennessee Valley that is heading our way. We also have the trailing cold front that is currently over the Upper Midwest.

That warm front will be approaching and moving through the region tomorrow, we will notice that the temperature and humidity will be much warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. Rain looks to start across south western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. This will advance east and north during the day reaching New England during the afternoon and evening.  There is a low chance for severe weather, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with gusty winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Those with the best chance of seeing any stronger storms will be across northern New York State into northern New England. Southeast Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic is also at a slightly higher risk for some strong storms. The SPC has these areas at a Marginal Risk.

 

Friday will see that cold front approach and move into the region. This will bring a better chance for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Friday is still going to be very warm and very humid. But those who see storms might see their temperatures slightly cooler as a result. Right now, widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

 

 But a few storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. There will be the risk of strong gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall, with these storms.  Localized areas of an inch or two of rain, could lead to localized flooding issues.  High pressure will be building in for Friday night as the cold front continues to move south.

 The weekend is looking nice for most of us. Along with cooler and less humid conditions. Saturday could see some lingering rain across southern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic as y’all will be closer to that frontal boundary.  The high pressure will be in complete control on Sunday, providing the entire region with wonderful conditions. Monday looks to be similar to Sunday, but there will be a slight chance for rain across northern parts of the region. By Tuesday the heat dome will be building into the Plains. Some of this heat will try to make it into our region, so we could see temperatures and humidly start to climb. But it won’t be anything like we just went through. Tuesday has a chance for very isolated showers and storms. Wednesday is looking similar to Tuesday with high pressure over the region.

  Have a great day!

 

 

July pattern flip!

 

Currently the western Pacific is basically blocked. So, this will help support and build that ridge developing over the Southwest CONUS.  This will allow the heat dome that was over the Eastern CONUS last week, to build into the Rockies, Plains, into Canada.  While this heat transfer takes place thunderstorms will continue to blow up east of the Rockies throughout the week,

By next week the upper-level ridge and heat dome will be well established over the Rockies into the Plains.   This pattern is going to stick with us for most of July.

Surface chart, radar and satellite.

 

The midlevel low pressure is pulling away; radar shows the rain currently over southern New England is pulling east with it. There is some airmass convection over western Pennsylvania. We could see some rain showers pop up across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic during the day. But all in all, most shouldn’t see them. The clouds over the region will be clearing up during the day.  So, all in all, it a fairly nice day with seasonal temperatures and lower humidity.

Skies will continue to clear during the overnight. Wednesday will start basically as a rinse-and-repeat, with a few isolated showers. Then a warm front will approach during the day, later Wednesday into Thursday the warm front will be moving through the region. Ahead of and along the front there will be an increasing risk, for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a chance for gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning. The tornado risk will be low, but not zero. This will allow temperatures and humidity to climb a little. Thursday and Friday will be warmer with higher humidity, (it won’t be anything like what it was last week).  All of this will be ahead of a slowly approaching cold front dropping down from Canada.   This cold front will drop through the region on Friday. Bringing rain and thunderstorms. Again, some of these storms could be strong to severe. The cold front should be pressing south by Saturday. Most of the region should be much cooler and dry. But depending on where the front ends up, it’s possible for lingering showers and thunderstorms across the far southern parts of our region. But those with the greatest chance for all of this will be to our south.

 

Tropical Atlantic

The Pacific has been quite active. While the Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, in spite of sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin being above the historical average, strengthening El Nino conditions are creating unfavorable atmospheric conditions with disruptive wind shear and dry Saharan air.  We are bound to see something develop as we move forward. So, keep an eye on the Atlantic, as storms could quickly develop.

 

 Have a great day

The heat is gone and one more day of the excessive rain.

 Today is much more comfortable as we return to seasonal and eventually below average temperatures.  

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

We’re going to have a frontal boundary associated with a slow-moving trough. There are going to be pieces of energy moving along the boundary, that will be the focus of rain and thunderstorms, as they push into that soupy airmass, some of these will be strong to severe.   Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe storms will be across Southern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Any storms that form, will be capable of moderate to heavy downpours. For this reason, there is a Flood Watch across part of southern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic up across the Southern Hudson Valley into southern New England.  The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across part of Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather. 

The primary low to the west is in the process of transferring energy to the coast. This will cause low pressure will form along the boundary and move north and east as all of this pulls out.  As this low forms it will enhance rainfall across Southern New England.  Conditions will be at their worst across southern New England this evening and overnight.  

Images curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Lingering rain across the northern Middle Atlantic tomorrow morning, then this area will dry out. But rain will continue across southern New England.  Rain will continue across southern New England tomorrow morning and afternoon, rain though lessened it could still be locally heavy at times. The rain tapers off tomorrow night across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Wednesday will feature a chance for isolated showers. On Thursday, a warm front is going to start to lift into the region.  This warm front will continue to advance north and east across the region, bringing with it, rain showers and some thunderstorms.  Then Thursday night and Friday the trailing cold front will come through. This will keep it very unsettled, with widespread rain showers and some thunderstorms.  The Saturday will feature cooler weather, with a chance for isolated rain showers.  Then for Sunday and Monday conditions look to be more or less dry, but a bit cool.

 

 Have a great day. 

  

The heat dome has broken down, now what?

 

The extreme heat has broken for most of us.

This will be a short post that goes into the general weather pattern for this week.

 

We’re going to see strong ridge of high-pressure setup up over the Southwest CONUS. This is going to force a strong ridge of high pressure over the Western into Central CONUS, bringing very warm temperatures into that region. This high-pressure ridge will swell into the Plains by Midmonth. For the Eastern part of the country including our region, we’re going to see temperatures that are much cooler than they were last week. This shift west of the heat is going to last through at least mid-month.  So, this will set up a different pattern. The large part of this week will feature generally seasonal temperatures with lower humidity. Then as we get toward the weekend into the first part of next week, we could see cooler than average temperatures set back up over the region.

As the ridge shifts west most of the severe weather will eventually follow it. But first a part of our region is going to have to deal with a lot of rain, as all that atmospheric moisture gets wrung out of the air.   Today into Tuesday rain will be increasing over Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic Region.

We can see the frontal boundary on the surface chart. This has basically stalled from New England down into to Virginia We’re going to see low pressure develop along the boundary tonight and tomorrow. This will bring the risk for widespread rain across Southern New York State (mainly south of I-90), Pennsylvania, and the MidAtlantic. north of there the rain shouldn’t be as widespread.

The severe risk continues to slip south. For today, the SPC has a slight Risk of severe weather is in place with any storm bringing the chance for gusty winds and some heavy rain. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain, there is a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in already saturated spots. The best timing for storms will be this afternoon and evening. 

The Severe risk is even farther south tomorrow as the front sets just to our south. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across southern Maryland (south of DC)

By Tuesday all the heat and high humidity will be out of the region. The severe risk should be over, but there is a chance for a rogue strong storm, but the risk should be south of the region. With the change in the pattern, as we get into the coming weekend, the rainfall chances should increase over Pennsylvania and the MidAtlantic Region. At the same time New York State and New England should stay generally drier.  

Over the next few days Eastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley including New York City, Long Island and Southern New England are at a greater risk for flooding. These areas could see 2 to near 5 inches of rain.

Here is a look at the excessive rainfall outlooks for the next 3 days.

That’s it, have a great Sunday!