An intense storm system is moving across Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning. A way to gauge the intensity of a storm is by how low the barometric pressure gets in the center of the storm.
In simplicity, the lower the central pressure of the storm, the stronger or more intense the storm is.
This storm will likely be an historic one for sure by the time it begins to wind down.
A very knowledgeable and savvy weatherlady passed this information on to me:
The storm is forecast to reach a pressure of 28.35 inches. If it reaches that pressure it will be second most severe system to strike the Great Lakes.
Probably the most famous storm was the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald back in 1975, that storm reached a central pressure of 28.95 inches.
However the strongest storm ever recorded was the January 1978 "Great Ohio Blizzard" which reached a central pressure of 28.05 inches.
In order to put a little scale here for comparison when Hurricane Earl (from this year) reached Category 3 strength its lowest pressure that was recorded was 28.20 inches.
This storm will be one for the history books that is for sure, if not epic.
As I mentioned in my last blog post Indian Summer and The Gales of November come Early this storm will produce a widespread swath of high winds from the Dakotas and Plains east through the Great Lakes states and Ohio along with blizzard conditions for parts of the Dakotas:
National Weather Hazards
Note the large swath of the Plains and Great Lakes States all under High wind Watches or Warnings on the National Hazards Map.
While for the Lower Great Lakes States and Midwest a major severe weather threat:
Today's Severe Weather Outlook
A final note, many national media outlets are dubbing this a "Midwest Cyclone". The word cyclone is a broad word that applies to ANY type of low pressure system; thus a Nor'easter, hurricane, low pressure system, even a tornado is a cyclone.
An educational blog by a female storm chaser / meteorologist, who blogs about the science of meteorology and other weather related subjects.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Indian Summer and the Gales of November Come Early
A very "interesting" synoptic weather setup appears in store for the U.S. this upcoming week from the East Slopes of the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard.
The "interesting" weather will be caused by, for late October standards, an intense storm that is forecast to form over the Central Rockies then move across the middle-half of the country. East of the storms path Indian Summer balminess while to the west the "Cold Miser" will be strutting a bit "too much".
A strong jet stream and upper-air trough is poised to push across the Pacific Northwest region of the Western U.S. today. Here is this evenings 300 hectopascal (hPa) chart:
Over the upper left-hand corner of the chart is where this strong jetstream is located. It is forecast to move towards the east and southeast through Monday and aid in the development of a complex storm system over Rockies. One storm appears to form over Southeastern Colorado or the Panhandle Region of Texas and Oklahoma with the second low pressure system developing over the Northern Rockies (Montana). Here is the 36 hour forecast map from the UK model forecasting this storm development by Monday morning, 25 October.
The low pressure (LP) area over Colorado is then forecast to strengthen into a significant storm and move northeastward to Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Tuesday night (26 October) becoming a powerful storm as it moves along its projected path.
Strong winds will be a big feature with this storm as it moves across the Plains and on the northwest side of the storm, as colder air gets pulled down out of Canada there could be some accumulating snow in places. Initially by Tuesday through early Wednesday the "best" chances for some accumulating snow will be across the Western Dakotas and by later Wednesday perhaps across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
To the southeast of the storm severe weather potential exists from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi region.
Farther east for the Upstate of New York and New England the large circulation associated with this storm combined with the circulation of a large area of high pressure area off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce a warm South to Southwest flow of air resulting in a spell of Indian Summer warmth.
For the Monday through Wednesday period of this week, I'm expecting temperatures for Eastern Upstate New York and New England to be 10-12 degrees above normal. The normal high for Albany, NY is in the mid 50s, so this means that we have a good chance to see some mid to upper 60s during this time.
In addition there will also be one or two days with temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal, too! This means high temperatures near 75 degrees on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Record highs for Albany for the middle of this week are in the upper 70s and for Glens Falls they are in the mid 70s; perhaps we can take a run at a record or two this week at either one or both of these locations.
The "interesting" weather will be caused by, for late October standards, an intense storm that is forecast to form over the Central Rockies then move across the middle-half of the country. East of the storms path Indian Summer balminess while to the west the "Cold Miser" will be strutting a bit "too much".
A strong jet stream and upper-air trough is poised to push across the Pacific Northwest region of the Western U.S. today. Here is this evenings 300 hectopascal (hPa) chart:
Over the upper left-hand corner of the chart is where this strong jetstream is located. It is forecast to move towards the east and southeast through Monday and aid in the development of a complex storm system over Rockies. One storm appears to form over Southeastern Colorado or the Panhandle Region of Texas and Oklahoma with the second low pressure system developing over the Northern Rockies (Montana). Here is the 36 hour forecast map from the UK model forecasting this storm development by Monday morning, 25 October.
The low pressure (LP) area over Colorado is then forecast to strengthen into a significant storm and move northeastward to Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Tuesday night (26 October) becoming a powerful storm as it moves along its projected path.
Strong winds will be a big feature with this storm as it moves across the Plains and on the northwest side of the storm, as colder air gets pulled down out of Canada there could be some accumulating snow in places. Initially by Tuesday through early Wednesday the "best" chances for some accumulating snow will be across the Western Dakotas and by later Wednesday perhaps across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
To the southeast of the storm severe weather potential exists from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi region.
Farther east for the Upstate of New York and New England the large circulation associated with this storm combined with the circulation of a large area of high pressure area off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce a warm South to Southwest flow of air resulting in a spell of Indian Summer warmth.
For the Monday through Wednesday period of this week, I'm expecting temperatures for Eastern Upstate New York and New England to be 10-12 degrees above normal. The normal high for Albany, NY is in the mid 50s, so this means that we have a good chance to see some mid to upper 60s during this time.
In addition there will also be one or two days with temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal, too! This means high temperatures near 75 degrees on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Record highs for Albany for the middle of this week are in the upper 70s and for Glens Falls they are in the mid 70s; perhaps we can take a run at a record or two this week at either one or both of these locations.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Get ready for another high impact coastal storm tomorrow through Friday!
First, let's talk about tonight's weather – it's easy: quiet, dry and chilly weather for all with some frost possible again in the Hudson Valley. Thus a FROST ADVISORY is posted from Albany southwards down the valley, as well as, for the Southern parts of Washington and Berkshire county. This said frost may not happen tonight because of clouds gradually increasing which could prevent temperatures from getting cold enough to allow for frost to form.
The clouds coming in tonight are part of the impending storm that will affect us tomorrow through Friday.
The storm has yet to form. But the various sets of weather data that I have been looking at are starting to show some consensus or agreement on its development, strength and track. Here's what I'm expecting: the low pressure system will form over the Virginia Capes Thursday morning and begin to move northeastward, rapidly strengthening enroute to moving across east-central New England by Friday morning. The rate of deepening on the storm is going to be of an explosive nature so a very strong and powerful Nor'easter is expected. By late Friday through the weekend the storm will slow down as it moves across the Gulf of Maine to New Brunswick Province or Nova Scotia.
This storm is expected to be a multi-impact event for us.
The primary threat will be the potential for heavy rain. It looks like at least 1-2 inches could fall across the region especially from around the Hudson Valley west, as well as for the Southern Adirondack east to Warren County. Depending on the precise storm track, the wind flow around the storm could cause higher amounts of rain over the more mountainous areas of New York State especially over the Catskills to the Adirondacks. Since we have had a bit of wet spell this month, the ground is saturated and this means that additional heavy rain could cause some flooding. Because of this flood threat a FLOOD WATCH is posted for the Adirondacks, Mohawk valley and Catskills from late Thursday through Saturday morning.
The next threat is WIND: Once again potentially strong winds could rake the region later tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow's wind threat may be confined to the Taconics, Greens and Berkshires where strong ESE to E winds could gust to 40 mph if not more.
On Friday as the storm begins to move over the Gulf of Maine much of the region could be buffeted by strong NW to W winds potentially up to 50 mph (if not more). Currently no wind watches, warnings or advisories are hoisted but this will probably change. If the strong winds do materialize (and they will) we could be looking at power outages.
There is yet another threat from this storm. Sorry folks! There could be some wet snow, especially over the higher terrain. Right now the snow threat appears to be limited to elevations at or above 1400 feet and at the moment the Eastern Catskills, Southern ‘Dacks and Southern Greens appear to have the better chance to see some flakes at least mixing in, if not get a period of all wet snow, especially by late Friday. The snow threat is problematic it all depends on a number of factors including how much in the way of colder air can work into the storm's circulation, whether or not (and if they do) where any stronger bands of precipitation and lift form and again the precise storm track. As of right now these mesoscale features (banding and lift) cannot be forecast this far out.
In the wake of the storm the weekend will remain blustery to windy and chilly, too along with the threat for some scattered sprinkles or showers.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Another Possible Fall Nor'easter for Thursday-Friday of this week?
Once again another interesting weather scenario appears to be in store for Upstate New York (and probably all of the Northeast U.S. for that matter) for Thursday through Friday (14th-15th October) of this week. Well, at least from this forecaster's perspective it is interesting.
After a cool start to the weather for the first almost two weeks of this month the pattern across the Lower 48 appears to be undergoing a change: For much of this month (even going back to the end of September) the jetstream has been rather active and strong as well as having many "dips" in its flow as it work blows across the Northern Hemisphere. These "dips", also known as troughs (which are areas of lower pressure aloft), have resulted in low pressure systems at the surface of the earth to move across the Northeast U.S. bringing much needed rainfall. With the passing of these lows cooler than normal air has followed with many areas, especially across interior Eastern New York State experiencing temperatures averaging below normal along with nighttime frosts and or freezes for many locales.
By the end of this upcoming weekend and into the start of next week it looks like the jetstream will be having less in the way of significant "dips" in it. It will likely be blow in a fairly west to east flow pattern (called a zonal flow). This sort of a jetstream tends to result in weak and fast moving weather systems. Temperatures tend to be closer to normal if not somewhat above normal, especially during the daytime hours.
As often happens when there is a pattern change or the jetstream transitions from one state (like the current one with the "dips") to the forecast one ('zonal" flow for next week), the atmosphere tends to "react" to this change with a storm development.
Latest data is indicating that this storm development will likely be along the East Coast of the U.S., however the question is where? Anywhere from the NJ coast to the Virginia Capes is possible.
The next question is once the storm does develop what track will it take? Here too data is indicating mixed signals: Tracks vary with the data tracking the storm either across Western New England to Northern Maine or moving it east and passing across Eastern Massachusetts to the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia.
Newer data will be coming in throughout the day and I'll post some more tonight, work permitting.
After a cool start to the weather for the first almost two weeks of this month the pattern across the Lower 48 appears to be undergoing a change: For much of this month (even going back to the end of September) the jetstream has been rather active and strong as well as having many "dips" in its flow as it work blows across the Northern Hemisphere. These "dips", also known as troughs (which are areas of lower pressure aloft), have resulted in low pressure systems at the surface of the earth to move across the Northeast U.S. bringing much needed rainfall. With the passing of these lows cooler than normal air has followed with many areas, especially across interior Eastern New York State experiencing temperatures averaging below normal along with nighttime frosts and or freezes for many locales.
By the end of this upcoming weekend and into the start of next week it looks like the jetstream will be having less in the way of significant "dips" in it. It will likely be blow in a fairly west to east flow pattern (called a zonal flow). This sort of a jetstream tends to result in weak and fast moving weather systems. Temperatures tend to be closer to normal if not somewhat above normal, especially during the daytime hours.
As often happens when there is a pattern change or the jetstream transitions from one state (like the current one with the "dips") to the forecast one ('zonal" flow for next week), the atmosphere tends to "react" to this change with a storm development.
Latest data is indicating that this storm development will likely be along the East Coast of the U.S., however the question is where? Anywhere from the NJ coast to the Virginia Capes is possible.
The next question is once the storm does develop what track will it take? Here too data is indicating mixed signals: Tracks vary with the data tracking the storm either across Western New England to Northern Maine or moving it east and passing across Eastern Massachusetts to the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia.
Newer data will be coming in throughout the day and I'll post some more tonight, work permitting.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Growing Season is Over for Many Upstate New Yorkers....
How cold did it get last night across Upstate New York?
Well for starters many locations across Eastern NY State reported frost on the ground. AT my house the low temperature was 32.7. Oh so close to a freeze !
Here are some other selected low temperatures across Central and Eastern NY state for the morning of October 10th:
Albany: 34
Binghamton: 34
Glens Falls: 29
Lake Placid: 25
Plattsburgh: 32
Poughkeepsie: 32
Rome (Griffiss): 30
Syracuse: 36
Here is a list from the Albany National Weather Service Office of some low temperatures from some cooperative observing sites (I have highlighted all the temperatures that were at or below 32 degrees):
Well for starters many locations across Eastern NY State reported frost on the ground. AT my house the low temperature was 32.7. Oh so close to a freeze !
Here are some other selected low temperatures across Central and Eastern NY state for the morning of October 10th:
Albany: 34
Binghamton: 34
Glens Falls: 29
Lake Placid: 25
Plattsburgh: 32
Poughkeepsie: 32
Rome (Griffiss): 30
Syracuse: 36
Here is a list from the Albany National Weather Service Office of some low temperatures from some cooperative observing sites (I have highlighted all the temperatures that were at or below 32 degrees):
DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY, NY
920 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010
TEMPS SNOW
LOCATION PCPN MAX MIN OBS NEW TTL
EASTERN NEW YORK...ALBANY COUNTY
ALBANY AIRPORT 0.00 64 34 37
ALCOVE DAM 0.00 60 36 39EASTERN NEW YORK...COLUMBIA COUNTY COPAKE 0.00 62 31 32 LIVINGSTON 65 31 37
EASTERN NEW YORK...DUTCHESS COUNTY BEACON HILLS 0.00 71 36 43 MILLBROOK 0.00 65 30 33 POUGHKEEPSIE AP 0.00 70 32 36 RHINEBECK 0.00 70 29 29
EASTERN NEW YORK...HAMILTON COUNTY LAKE PLEASANT 54 36 39
EASTERN NEW YORK...HERKIMER COUNTY OLD FORGE 0.00 53 28 28 STILLWATER RESVR 0.00 53 29 30
EASTERN NEW YORK...ONEIDA COUNTY
BOONVILLE 0.00 57 32 32 0.0 0
ROME 0.00 61 30 32EASTERN NEW YORK...RENSSELAER COUNTY BRUNSWICK 0.00 62 36 38 BUSKIRK 0.00 60 30 30 0.0 0 EAST GREENBUSH 0.00 61 36 37 STEPHENTOWN 0.02 62 28 29 TROY 0.00 66 37 38
EASTERN NEW YORK...SARATOGA COUNTY CONKLINGVILLE 0.00 62 35 35 HADLEY 0.00 33 34 MALTA 0.00 62 32 33 ROUND LAKE 0.00 61 35 35 0.0 0 SARATOGA SPRINGS 0.00 68 32 33 SARATOGA NHP 0.00 67 34 34
EASTERN NEW YORK...SCHENECTADY COUNTY DUANESBURG 0.00 61 31 38
EASTERN NEW YORK...SCHOHARIE COUNTY CHARLOTTEVILLE 0.00 58 24 24 COBLESKILL 0.00 59 35 36 SCHOHARIE 0.00 64 35 35 SHARON SPRINGS 56 35 41
EASTERN NEW YORK...ULSTER COUNTY PHOENICIA 0.00 69 33 34
SLIDE MOUNTAIN 0.00 58 32 35 WEST SHOKAN 69 36 37 0.0 0
EASTERN NEW YORK...WARREN COUNTY GLENS FALLS 0.00 61 29 33 NORTH CREEK 0.00 57 29 32
EASTERN NEW YORK...WASHINGTON COUNTY EASTON 0.00 61 40 42 NORTH HEBRON 0.00 56 35 39 WHITEHALL 0.00 56 34 40 VERMONT...BENNINGTON COUNTY BENNINGTON AIRPORT 0.00 60 29 32 PERU 0.00 64 31 31 POWNAL 0.00 57 32 33 0.0 SEARSBURG 0.00 53 32 33 SUNDERLAND 0.00 59 28 29 VERMONT...WINDHAM COUNTY BRATTLEBORO 62 31 31 GRAFTON 0.00 54 30 34 MARLBORO 0.00 58 30 32 MOUNT SNOW 0.00 53 37 43
MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE COUNTY
NORTH ADAMS 0.00 62 30 34
PITTSFIELD 0.00 61 36 41
SAVOY 56 32 42
WEST OTIS
CONNECTICUT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY
BAKERSVILLE 0.00 63 35 38
BLACK ROCK LAKE 0.00 63 31 36
FALLS VILLAGE 0.00 63 31 33
NORFOLK 59 33 40Because of the number of hours below freezing in may locations across Eastern NY State the
Growing Season has come to an end in may locations:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1200 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE GROWING SEASON HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS IN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST...WHICH ENDED THE GROWING SEASON. FREEZE WARNINGS AND OR FROST ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AGAIN UNTIL THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON NEXT YEAR IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS IN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
What is Indian Summer?
Indian summer is a weather phenomena that occurs during the autumn months across the United States. It is often a period of weather marked by sunny or hazy sunshine during the afternoon and accompanied by mild temperatures.
Unlike a heat wave (as defined for the Northern U.S. which is a period of 3 or more consecutive days that have a maximum temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher), Indian Summer has no true definition as to what defines it.
Some meteorologists say the daytime temperature must be at or above 70 degrees. The only problem with this "condition" is that e.g. for Albany, NY in November the average maximum temperature for November 1st is 53 degrees, by mid-month its in the mid 40s and by the last day its 41 degrees. My personal preference and again this is my preference is that if the daily high temperature is 10 degrees or more above normal, I consider it to be Indian Summer.
Perhaps the only truism regarding Indian Summer is that it is the first "spell" of mild weather that follows the first widespread hard frost or freeze (some also say the leaves must also have turned color, too) and it occurs before the first snowfall. Thus usually the period from around mid-October through November can see Indian Summer or Indian Summers (more than one such period of balmy weather). Some years can also have no Indian Summer either.
Why am I writing about Indian Summer?
Well, tonight appears as if we will experience our first widespread frost across interior sections o eastern NY State and in some of the lower elevations (of the Upper Hudson and Northern Mohawk Valley) a hard frost or freeze might occur.
If this frost and freeze does materialize then the next spell of warmer than normal temperature(s) could be Indian Summer.
But wait!
The leaves have yet to completely turn!
Unlike a heat wave (as defined for the Northern U.S. which is a period of 3 or more consecutive days that have a maximum temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher), Indian Summer has no true definition as to what defines it.
Some meteorologists say the daytime temperature must be at or above 70 degrees. The only problem with this "condition" is that e.g. for Albany, NY in November the average maximum temperature for November 1st is 53 degrees, by mid-month its in the mid 40s and by the last day its 41 degrees. My personal preference and again this is my preference is that if the daily high temperature is 10 degrees or more above normal, I consider it to be Indian Summer.
Perhaps the only truism regarding Indian Summer is that it is the first "spell" of mild weather that follows the first widespread hard frost or freeze (some also say the leaves must also have turned color, too) and it occurs before the first snowfall. Thus usually the period from around mid-October through November can see Indian Summer or Indian Summers (more than one such period of balmy weather). Some years can also have no Indian Summer either.
Why am I writing about Indian Summer?
Well, tonight appears as if we will experience our first widespread frost across interior sections o eastern NY State and in some of the lower elevations (of the Upper Hudson and Northern Mohawk Valley) a hard frost or freeze might occur.
If this frost and freeze does materialize then the next spell of warmer than normal temperature(s) could be Indian Summer.
But wait!
The leaves have yet to completely turn!