Sunday, October 24, 2010

Indian Summer and the Gales of November Come Early

A very "interesting" synoptic weather setup appears in store for the U.S. this upcoming week from the East Slopes of the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard.

The "interesting" weather will be caused by, for late October standards, an intense storm that is forecast to form over the Central Rockies then move across the middle-half of the country. East of the storms path Indian Summer balminess while to the west the "Cold Miser" will be strutting a bit "too much".

A strong jet stream and upper-air trough is poised to push across the Pacific Northwest region of the Western U.S. today. Here is this evenings 300 hectopascal (hPa) chart:

Over the upper left-hand corner of the chart is where this strong jetstream is located. It is forecast to move towards the east and southeast through Monday and aid in the development of a complex storm system over Rockies. One storm appears to form over Southeastern Colorado or the Panhandle Region of Texas and Oklahoma with the second low pressure system developing over the Northern Rockies (Montana). Here is the 36 hour forecast map from the UK model forecasting this storm development by Monday morning, 25 October.

The low pressure (LP) area over Colorado is then forecast to strengthen into a significant storm and move northeastward to Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Tuesday night (26 October) becoming a powerful storm as it moves along its projected path.

  Strong winds will be a big feature with this storm as it moves across the Plains and on the northwest side of the storm, as colder air gets pulled down out of Canada there could be some accumulating snow in places. Initially by Tuesday through early Wednesday the "best" chances for some accumulating snow will be across the Western Dakotas and by later Wednesday perhaps across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

To the southeast of the storm severe weather potential exists from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi region.

Farther east for the Upstate of New York and New England the large circulation associated with this storm combined with the circulation of a large area of high pressure area off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce a warm South to Southwest flow of air resulting in a spell of Indian Summer warmth.

For the Monday through Wednesday period of this week, I'm expecting temperatures for Eastern Upstate New York and New England to be 10-12 degrees above normal. The normal high for Albany, NY is in the mid 50s, so this means that we have a good chance to see some mid to upper 60s during this time.

In addition there will also be one or two days with temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal, too! This means high temperatures near 75 degrees on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.  Record highs for Albany for the middle of this week are in the upper 70s and for Glens Falls they are in the mid 70s; perhaps we can take a run at a record or two this week at either one or both of these locations.


  1. The Gales of November come early, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, by Gordon Lightfoot...

  2. sometimes I call it, "Summers last stand"...


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