Have my thoughts changed for this summer?

Remember, this comers my ideas over a three month average; that covers the entire Northeast into the Northern Mid Atlantic Region. Some localized areas could end up above or below my overall ideas.

I've been doing long range and seasonal forecasting for quite some time. Many times I get the overall idea right; but sometimes I get it quite wrong. I've learned a lot over the time I've been doing these outlooks; both about the overall process and about people in general.

This year versus last year:

I've been seeing a lot of comments, where people say this year has been just like last year. But has it been really?  One thing I've learned is perception plays a bigger role on how people remember an event or a season than any model or analog package ever could. If someone has an outdoor event or a vacation that is cool and or wet; Then when they look back on it, the entire month or even season was wet and cool, regardless of how the numbers worked out.  

You can find my 2019 spring outlook here.

 

 

I like to think I got things fairly close to how Spring 2019 unfolded. It was certainly a wet spring.   

These images come from the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Spring 2018:

 

   

 

 

 

 

Spring 2019:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When we look at the numbers and statistics. Last Spring was nothing like Spring 2019.  

 

Back in April, I released my thoughts for how summer 2019 looked to average out.

My summer 2019 thoughts from April can be found here.

 

 

Summer 2018 saw a lot of heat and humidity.  

Boston normally sees 12 to 14 90+ degree days, During summer 2018 Boston saw 23 day 90+ degree days. New York City normally sees 15 90+ degree days, During summer 2018 New York City saw 20 day 90+ degree days. Parts of interior New England and New York State were even warmer than that.  Albany saw 18 days of 90+.  The Mid Atlantic also saw a hot summer. Here is a chart that shows the temperatures. With the heat there was a lot of humidity. Many places saw more than twice the average number for days of dewpoints 70 or higher.

 

Summer 2019:

The Southeast into the Mid Atlantic has been quite a bit warmer than in the Northeast and Great Lakes.  Because of the heat, the Southeast is dried out. Because the Sea Surface Temperatures are so warm off the East Coast. The Southeast is still looking to see summer temperature anomies end up quite warm. Those warm SST's are going to play a role in our overall temperature anomies as well. Once the Sun goes down, we're going to hang on to the daytime heat a little longer than we did a few years ago. This will keep elevated temperatures lasting a few hours as well as keep nighttime lows a bit warmer than average.

 

 

 

 

The El Nino, AMO, and other major players are still similar to what they looked like two months ago. I said then that the El Nino Modoki should hang on until at least fall 2019.In their May discussion, the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), now says the same thing about the El Nino. The IRI/CPC plume is also showing these weak El Nino conditions lasting into at least fall 2019, most likely into winter 2019-2020.. The American CFSv2 model is showing the same general idea as the IRI/CPC model. I do think the El Nino will be over before winter 2019-2020. There are signs that after we get into fall it could dissipate. The warm subsurface waters are being offset by increased trade winds. stronger trades many times lead to cooler surface water temperatures.  

 

 

 

We have all that cool air up in Canada; as long as the upper level pattern allows, these incursions of cold air into the pattern,  The Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic is going to stay unsettled. The upper level pattern that is keeping the Northeast cool, is also going to help promote the heat in the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Region.

 

 

Temperature:

The Climate Prediction Center's soil moisture anomies show the ground is very well saturated, not only here in the Northeast, but over the entire eastern 2/3rds of the U.S.

 

 

This summer is going to be very cool in the Upper Midwest and Plains. This is because, the wet ground is going to help keep daytime temperatures in check. More rain equals more clouds, which keeps daytime temperatures lower. The saturated soil is also going to help promote higher levels of humidity over the summer.  

The Great Lakes and Northeast look to see some warming for the end of June into July.

Warmer than average doesn't mean it will be always hot day after day. There are going to be cool periods intermixed with the warmer temperatures, much more so than we saw during summer 2018. The warmer night time lows is going to be the reason overall temperatures end up warmer than average for June, July, and August.  I think if a month is going to warm, it's going to be August.

Precipitation: .  

Summer's warmer temperatures, leads to evaporation because of all the saturated ground conditions, this leads to the development of more clouds, which leads to greater chances for rain.  

We have all that cool air up in Canada; as long as we keep seeing these  incursions of cool air into the pattern, the pattern is going to stay unsettled.

Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic Region saw a lot of severe weather during spring 2019. While the rest of the Northeast has seen some severe weather it hasn't been anything like those farther to the south.  In my Spring outlook I talked about how a lot of the severe weather should set up over Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic. That certainly has been the case this year. I do think the Pennsylvania and Mid Atlantic, will still see more severe weather as compared to the Northeast. The cooler temperatures in the Midwest and Plains with the warm temperatures in the Southeast will create a battle zone of air masses, that will led to  problems from time to time in the form of severe weather including tornadoes.
 

I still think my overall ideas of a warmer and wetter than average summer are correct. But overall temperatures  in July and August could end up on the lower end of my scale. You can find my predictions in my post link above.

My thoughts about the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season remain unchanged.

 

My first insights for fall 2019 going into winter 2019-2020:

I'm starting to think that fall could arrive early this year.  The end of August and especially September could see a lot of trough and cool conditions here in the Great Lakes, Northeast and into the Mid Atlantic. December into the first part of January could see some late season warmth, before colder conditions setup for the rest of winter.