The Northeast Middle Atlantic 2023 Spring Outlook

 

Here is a look at my thoughts for the 2023 Spring for the Northeast.

There is no doubt that so far, the 2022-2023 winter has been warm. Vermont, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Jersey had their warmest January on record. New York State and Pennsylvania, recorded the second-warmest January on Record. Maryland and Delaware also saw one of the warmest January

in the 129-year record. Away from the predominate lake snow belts, most of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region are seeing seasonal snowfall accumulations well below average.

The winter has seen a very active pattern, with frequent storms. There we’re a couple of snowstorms that brought parts of New York State and New England some decent snow. But due to the prevalence of warm temperatures, most of the storms were mainly rain events with some mixing.

Right now, the question is can we all put away our snow shovels and snowblowers?

 

Meteorological spring is right around the corner starting on March 1st and astronomical spring begins on Monday March 20th. Meteorological Spring covers March, April and May.

 

What is a seasonal outlook?

A seasonal outlook is a broad overview of how the season looks to unfold. It deals with trends in temperature and precipitation.  It isn’t anything like a weekly weather forecast, it is just a summary of the season to come. A weekly forecast tries to predict what exactly will happen over the forecast period.  Seasonal outlooks deal with what is considered average for the region.  A seasonal outlook deals more with climate science than it does meteorology. To come up with an outlook, I look at several things, the main ones are using analogues that look at years where the pattern looks similar to the current season, water temperature anomalies across the globe, and various teleconnections that have an influence on weather.  Because of this, outlooks are less accurate than daily and weekly forecast.

 

Analogues:

Here is the list of years I’m using as analogues for this spring.

1956, 1960, and 1984. There are also similarities to the spring of 2018. 

Here is how February averaged for those four years.

 

Here is how March and April temperatures averaged for those four years.

 

 

Each individual year averaged like this.

1956

 

 

 

1960

 

 

 

1984

 

 

 

 

2018

 

 

Teleconnections:

The El Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…

The ENSO deals with equatorial Pacific water temperatures and air pressure differences between the western and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific.

When three-month temperature anomaly sea-surface temperatures are above average by about 1 degree Fahrenheit or more, El Nino can develop. When temperatures are below average, La Nina can form. When temperatures are at or near average neither develops. This is called ENSO-neutral.

Pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti, also help indicate if La Nina or El Nino are more likely. When the pressure is lower than normal in Tahiti and higher than normal in Darwin, conditions favor the development of El Nino. When the opposite occurs, La Nina may develop.

La Nina

La Nina has played a major role, in the weather pattern over the last three years. But the current La Nina is weakening, and we should quickly transition to ENSO neutral during the spring. We will likely see the equatorial Pacific transition into an El Nino over the summer into the fall.

 

But La Nina will still be an echo during the spring, so the atmosphere will be slower to change, even as the Pacific Temperature anomalies continue to fade.

 

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)…

The MJO has been in the warm phases 4,5, and 6 quite a bit this winter. It moved into the cold phases a little before Christmas 2022, then it moved into back into the warm phases for a large part of January. Before dipping into the cold phases for the end of January into the first bit of February. Then it moved back into phases 4-6. Currently the MJO looks to move back into phases 8 and 1. This would be a strong hint that we’re going to be cooling off again. As we move into March. This would tie into what is going on in the stratosphere above the North Pole.

 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)…

Both of these are looking to go negative end of February into March.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO)…

These too, look to try and turn negative by the beginning of March.

When these four teleconnections are negative, it's a cold signal.

 

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW):

An SSW occurs when the polar stratosphere rapidly warms by as much as around 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 °C) in just a few days.  The rapid increase in the stratospheric temperatures, disrupts the Polar Vortex which allows the warming temperatures to prorogate down into the troposphere.

The SSW has an impact on the Polar Vortex (PV).  The PV is a band of strong winds that circle the Arctic from west to east 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole.  When the PV is strong the polar jet stream stays farther north and has fewer kinks along it. This keeps the arctic air bottled up over the arctic, keeping mid latitude temperatures warmer. When we have an SSW, the Polar Vortex breaks down and weakens. Sometimes during a very strong SSW the PV can even reverse. The weaken PV can no longer contain the arctic cold, and some of that arctic air can migrate south into the mid latitudes.   

 As of 2/12/2023 we’re in the midst of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Over the next several days this will continue to warm and move into Pole. The SSW is going to be strong.  this will cause the Polar Vortex (PV) to slow down and most likely reverse. As a result, the polar Jet will shift south and displace cold air into North America and Europe.

The SSW in January of 2021, ended up pushing arctic air into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region. 2018 is an analogue year, the strong SSW that occurred in mid-February of that year, led to a very cold March and April.

  

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario water temperatures:

Both lakes water temperatures are above average for this time of year.

Lake Erie ice coverage is very low. Typically, at this point in the winter ice coverage is around 60%. But for mid-February this year, the ice coverage is less than 10%,

Lake Ontario ice coverage is also very low. As of 02/13/2023, the ice coverage is less than 5%,

Typically, heavy lake effect snow is rare for both lakes this time of year. But this year, the lack of ice increases the chance for lake effect snow for those areas downwind of both lakes. The general idea of March into April looking to be colder than January and February, means Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely have an extended lake snow season.  

 

So, what about Spring?

 

Due to the things, I just mentioned, March into April is looking to be colder and more wintery than we’ve seen so far for winter 2022-2023.  

The spring of 2018 saw super warmth in February, but then the February powerful SSW, ended up bringing arctic cold in the 1^st part of March, the Cold lasted for the entire month of March and well into April. March also saw four major nor'easters at had big impacts in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and eastern Canada.  If the current SSW ends up as strong, it could bring similar conditions to the Northeast and Middle Atlantic this spring.

The MJO along with the AO, NAO, EPO, and WPO are all hinting that March will be colder than January and February.

The analogues do point toward March and maybe part of April being overall generally cooler. While it might not get as cold as we saw back in 2018. There is a chance it could end up being much cooler than many think.  I think March will end up below average; this coolness will likely extend into the first part of April. So, while we will still be dealing with this overall battle between warm and cold outbreaks. I think the first four to six weeks of Spring will be overall chilly which will delay the true spring warmth. Even with the cooler start, I do think overall temperatures for the entire Spring will end up above average.

 

March:

Given the setup. March is looking to be overall below average when it comes to temperatures here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic Region. March, at least right now, is looking to be colder than January and February.

 

April:

The overall pattern will remain changeable into mid-April with at least couple of cooler outbreaks possible. Then the overall pattern should turn milder from mid-April into May.

 

May:

Real Spring should be in place for May.

 

Snowfall:

Given the active weather pattern that looks to continue into this Spring. We could see more snowfall during March and April, then many of us have seen so far this winter.  I don’t think we will end up completely erasing the snowfall deficit for the areas away from the Great Lakes. But the southern half of the region, could enough snow to make a decent dent into the snowfall deficit. The snowbelts downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario have seen near average to above average snowfall this winter.  The lack of ice cover, greatly increases the odds for the snowbelts to end up with snowfall that is well above average.

So, to answer that question, I would wait to put away the snow removal equipment for a few weeks.

 

Well, that’s about it.

If the general pattern ends up making a big change, I will release an updated Spring Outlook Mid-March.  But for now, this is how I think things will work out.

If you have any questions, comment on here or on the Facebook Pages.