The Atlantic is going to wake back up and will we see a pattern change over the East Coast?

 

After a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. It covers the entire Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

So far, we’ve seen 15 named storms. 10 of these become hurricanes, with 4 of them considered major. The National Weather Service defines a tropical cyclone as a hurricane when maximum sustained winds become 74 mph or higher. A hurricane is considered major when maximum sustained winds become 111 mph or higher. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index currently is approximately 148.6. ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during its lifetime, the higher the number the more powerful the impact. The total number of each storms ACE index is added together to determine the total season ACE total. So, the season has been active as a whole. 

My 2024 hurricane outlook, so far, has done very well.  Back in May I called for 17-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-8 major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy of 150 – 210.

There were those who said mine and other outlets was going to be a big bust, when the Atlantic went to sleep August into early September. Then we saw a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week. If tropical activity does make a come back, my outlook should fall well with-in the parameters I set. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 7 which is an unfavorable phase in the Atlantic, resulting in downward motion over the Atlantic. But the MJO is rotating toward phase 8, phase 1, then phase 2. These phases are more supportive for tropical cyclone development, as we end up with rising motion over the Atlantic.  We should be in phases 8 and 1 end of this week into at least the middle of November. So, we could end up seeing at least one system develop during that time. I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with 2 or 3 tropical systems during that three-week period.

On the JMA CHI200 yellow generally means sinking air, blue generally means rising air, off white is neutral. What you look for areas of development is between the blue and yellow.  

The most likely areas to see increased chances for tropical activity will be the GOM, Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic off the Southeast Coast.

  

Pattern change is coming, but it will take a little while.

Along with the MJO and other Pacific teleconnections. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are positive now, which promotes general ridging here in the east. But as we get into the 2^nd half of November we should see these become neutral to negative. For those who don’t like the warm weather, this is a sign that the end of November could turn markedly colder. This would line up with what I said in part 1 of the winter outlook.