Finally a change in the pattern?

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

Today started out very chilly, but the temperatures warmed, to seasonal to slightly above seasonal.  Winds are breezy ahead of a system trying to approach from the west.

High pressure and an upper-level ocean storm near Atlantic Canada, is going to act as a block, forcing the approaching system to track south and east.

Far western Pennsylvania will see some rain today, as this system drifts east a bit more, showers will become more in the way of scattered for places like Pittsburgh this evening. Some of this rain will make it into far western New York this evening, I can’t rule out a chance for a few isolated showers making their way to the Finger Lakes tonight. As that inland system continues to drop south and east, a few scattered showers will be possible across Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware this evening into tonight, but the bulk of the rain will stay to the south closer to the Delmarva Peninsula. Our winds will remain breezy. Every one else should stay dry today.  

Tomorrow high pressure will build in from Canada and the ocean storm will retrograde closer to northern New England.  The high pressure will keep it from getting too close, but scattered showers will be possible later tomorrow morning in Maine, this will be especially true for Northeast Maine. Northern Maine could see some mix before it turns to rain. A few isolated rain showers could make it into northern New Hampshire Friday night.   Everyone else should stay mainly dry. Tomorrow will start out chilly, but temperatures will become mild by the afternoon.

Saturday the upper-level low will be lurking nearby, keeping the threat for a few scattered showers over Maine. The southern low will be moving away, but Isolated showers will still be possible across parts of Maryland and Delaware during the morning. Everyone else should stay dry with lots of sunshine, providing milder conditions. The upper-level system will move far enough away, that Sunday should be dry with even milder temperatures.

Sunday low pressure will be moving into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this will move through on Monday providing a chance for scattered rain showers across our northern areas, with everyone else having a chance for widely scattered to isolated rain showers.

Tuesday high pressure build in overhead keeping us dry. Wednesday will see the high pressure remaining in control so we stay dry, with seasonal temperatures.

 

A pattern change

 

We’re going to see a strong blocking pattern that is going to set up for Monday Through Wednesday of next week (18th, 19th and 20^th)

We look to have a potent snow storm once again in Colorado this will likely spawn a severe weather outbreak in Texas and southern Plains. This then looks to move up into the Great Lakes and Canada. On the backside of this, a trough is going to dig into the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. With this trough cold air that is over Alaska, is going to be forced down into the Central and Eastern US. Next Thursday and Friday, a deep area of low pressure looks to be over the Northeast. This very well could become a big lake snow event. The CPC is even hinting at this.

 

Tropical Depression 19

 

Max sustained winds are 35 mph, min central pressure is 1004mb, The National Hurricane Center has this moving west at 14 mph. TD 19 is over very warm water with lighter windshear, so this should become Sara soon. She still looks to meander or even stall along the Honduras coast for the next few days. How strong she becomes will depend on how much impact she receives from land interaction.  If she can remain over open water, should has a chance to be come a hurricane, maybe even major. But if she moves over the Yucatan, she would likely weaken quite a bit, possibly weaken beyond her ability to recover when she moves back into the Gulf.  Once in the Gulf there is a good chance for her to move toward Florida, as she is guided by high pressure over the Southeast U.S.