Rain, Rain where are you.

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

The surface chart shows the cold front approaching from the north, this will move through today into early tomorrow, bringing gusty winds, that could gust 30-near 40 mph at times. The front is moisture starved, so a lot of rain isn’t likely, but unlike the last few frontal passages, this time it looks like everyone will see at least some rain; Any rain is welcome at this point.

High pressure will build in for Saturday into Sunday. We should see a lot of sun for Saturday, but it will be rather cool. Then for Sunday we start out dry, but a frontal system with as warm front will be approaching and moving through on Sunday and Veterans Day Monday, bringing the chance for scattered rain showers, and some mountain snow showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see high pressure overhead, temperatures will once again become above average for this point in November, the region should be dry during this time. Then Wednesday night and Thursday another system will approach and move through, this will bring a chance for more in the way of widespread rain that could be heavy at times, with amounts a bit higher than we’ve seen the last several weeks, it won’t be a drought buster, but it could put a dent in things.  For Friday we will have to see if a coastal low could develop along the frontal boundary.

  

Rafael

Earlier today Rafael regained Category 3 status, with max sustained winds of 120 mph. Since then, he has weakened back to a Category 2 hurricane, but he has strengthened again. He now has max sustained winds of 110 mph, central pressure at 961 mb, tracking west at 9 mph.

The ocean heat content in this part of the GOM is very high. So, with the other factors overall favorable, he intensified. The steering winds are weak, so he should continue to meander and could even make a loop over the western and central GOM. Rafael has used his bag of tricks very well; this is making him unpredictable. But the current set-up favors him staying out over the GOM for the next few days, where he should slowly weaken over the weekend into next week. But with his erratic nature, the northern Gulf Coast and even Florida should keep an eye on him. Even with him likely being a fish storm, rip currents and high surf will be an issue for the Gulf Coast.

 Drought

  

I am happy to see some of y’all are commenting and asking questions on the blog. There was a very good one that was asked on yesterdays’ drought outlook post. They asked when is the current pattern going to change?  Here is the answer I gave.

Every pattern does change at some point, but the steps leading up to the change can be slow to come in a persistent pattern like we're in now. We will have chances for rainfall going forward, this pattern is going to make widespread soaking rain events very hard to come-by. Rafael should stay in the Gulf, but if Rafael does end up making a landfall on the Gulf Coast, he would get tangled up in the progressive pattern of quick moving fronts. Some of that moisture could bring us some rain into our region, but that isn’t a sure thing. I just don’t see this overall pattern changing for the entire month of November. There are signs of some kind of pattern flip once we get into December. But we will have to see how that pans out. With the overall temperatures looking to stay overall above average for the next several weeks, I expect the drought will be getting worse.