Welcome to a new week!

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion.

The surface shows a few shortwave troughs and that moisture starved cold front moving through; radar is showing a few isolated showers, but that’s about it. Temperatures ahead of the front will be mild. Behind the front seasonal temperatures will return for the next couple of days.

Tuesday into Wednesday a warm front will lift into the region. With the front temperature will temporarily warm along with some rain showers.

The pattern change.

A Feature in the polar jet around Hudson Bay, is going to slide south and east into the Gulf of Maine, this will then act as a block, forcing the system in the southern Plains to move into the Midwest then force it to reform over eastern Pennsylvania or just off the Coast, then it will move over New York State into northern New England and Canada. This will bring rain showers later in day on Wednesday for western parts of the region, the cold front will continue to move east during the night into Thursday.  This will be bringing needed rain to a large part of the region. General rainfall amounts look to be 0.50 to 1.25 inches but there could be localized amounts of around 2 inches.

Colder air will be streaming in behind the front, this will bring snow to the Appalachians, and will change rain over to a mix for some of the lower elevations, with a mix/snow for the higher elevations, later Thursday into Friday morning. The higher elevations of New York State and northern into Central New England could see measurable snowfall.  Who sees the mix will depend on how much cold can get in here and the exact track of the low.

The colder northwest wind coming over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will support some Lake Effect snow bands for Saturday into Sunday. Those Southeast of the Lakes should see some measurable snowfall. How much will again depend on the temperature profile over the Big Lakes. There could be a decent amount snow in localized spots of the snowbelts, but right now it doesn't look to be a blockbuster event.   

The cold pattern coming will be stick around for a while, so cooler temperatures will be generally in store for 7-10 days. Then we should see the pattern for mid-December take hold that I talked about in the Winter Outlook.

Tropical discussion

Sara has dissipated, and is no lower being tracked by the NHC. Her remnants will bring heavy rain for the northern Gulf Coast as well as Florida.