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| Mesoscale Discussion 815 | | < Previous MD |  | Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Areas affected...the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161741Z - 162015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds should develop by
late afternoon across parts of the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic States.
DISCUSSION...Multiple convective regimes are apparent through the
rest of the afternoon within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent.
This may yield a less focused severe threat, but should support
isolated severe hail and damaging winds by late afternoon. One
regime may be emanating ahead of a subtle MCV remnant that appears
to be along the southeast OH/western WV border area. Despite a
pronounced cirrus canopy downstream and low-level westerlies, deep
convection may be sustained ahead of the MCV across northern WV. A
few cells have also formed along remnant outflow in
southwest-central PA, and may eventually develop southeast of this
into parts of MD. With 35-45 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven
by increasing speed with height above the low-levels, and 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, a mix of both
severe hail and wind will be possible.
..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39118084 39888069 40687953 40907859 40657768 40067725
39697661 39547612 39067635 38627681 38407967 39118084
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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