05/14/2025

 

We've been dealing with this upper load pattern for what seems like forever. The latest one has been sticking around for the last few days 

When we look at the 500 millibar pattern, we see we have yet another deep trough settling in over the western United States. This trough is going to be responsible for a lot of severe weather, starting later this afternoon and this evening in the western parts of the Plains and then tomorrow over parts of the Plains into the Midwest, as this trough kicks east.

 It also shows that upper level low lifting out of the Southeast as this gets ready to depart. The current surface chart and radar shows the rain, some of it heavy lifting north ahead of the upper level low. The proximity of that upper level low sitting over the Carolinas is creating an almost complete overcast over the region.

As this upper level low continues to move north It is going to weaken. This will mean that the rain will become more scattered and less intense as we move through today and tonight. Tomorrow we will still be dealing with a lot of cloudiness along with scattered to widely scattered rain showers, these rain showers won't be super heavy. For most of us. For western parts of the region there will be more in the way of widespread scattered showers, as the stuff from the west starts to approach. This area could see some thunderstorms I don't think the severe is gonna be all that high, but I can't rule out a few of these being on the strong side. We'll just have see. Then during the overnight into Friday morning we could see a line of rain and thunderstorms move into western parts of region,  these could have a better shot of being strong to severe. But I don't think the severe aspect will be too widespread, instead being more isolated in nature. If some of these do become severe the biggest danger will be wind. There will be some sun out ahead of this as the warm front lifts in,  rain and storms  will work their way east.  There will be scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms across the rest of New York state and northern Pennsylvania and northern New England.but I don't expect these to be really too severe, as the dynamics won't be as potent as they are in the western part of the region. With that said, some of the storms could be on the strong side across   Pennsylvania and the northern mid Atlantic heading into southern New England, depending on how much sunlight can destabilize the atmosphere.

Friday night will remain unsettled with a few scattered showers. Then on Saturday a cold front will approach and move through; with the front we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some thunderstorms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning. The best timing for any severe weather will be during the afternoon into the evening. Saturday night into Sunday  all of this will start to clear out of here. But we still could have some lingering rain showers on our Sunday. Monday we will still have the risk for lingering showers as the trough continues to move out of the region. We will also see that cool very cool air behind the front move in the first part of next week, frost could be an issue for some of us. Tuesday will see high pressure approach most of us should stay dry but the far northern parts of the region could see a few scattered showers. Then for Wednesday another week area of low pressure will move through creating chance for a few rain showers.