07/02/2025

 

We can see in the surface chart The cold front is slowly pushing east, with the bulk of the rain Off the coast. 

Satellite shows skies clearing and dry air Fire air working in west to east behind the front. Where is the hot and humid air Pushing off the coast tonight will be much more comfortable than it was last night. On the continental satellite image We can see the disturbance over the Plains that will be moving through our region tomorrow into Thursday.

Tomorrow we're going to have a shortwave drop in out over the great lakes ahead of an approaching cold front Ahead of the cold front we're going to see warmer temperatures and higher humidity  move in on a southwest flow. Isolated rain shower Western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania Tomorrow morning. This will head  east during the morning into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving towards and into central New York State and central Pennsylvania as we head towards noon. During the afternoon rain and thunderstorms will become scattered. There will be isolated thunderstorms that become strong too severe The main danger is going to be strong damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. Here is a look at the day 2 convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC). It shows much of the region under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The SPC does have a Slight Risk over southwest New York State part of eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England and New Jersey. 

Later in the day on Thursday and to Thursday evening as the storms drop south and east out of New York State and Pennsylvania heading for the I-95 corridor and the northern Middle Atlantic they should be weakening. There still could be  strong possibly severe storms but they shouldn't be nearly as widespread as they were on Monday and Tuesday. 

The front will push the hot and humid weather out here for July 4th. We should have plenty of clear skies along with seasonal temperatures and low humidity; so any fireworks displays should go off without a hitch. Saturday could see temperatures climb slightly but the humidity will still be low and it will stay dry. Sunday high pressure will start to push east, ahead of an approaching disturbance. A southwest flow will bring in warmer temperatures with humidity increasing. As the system gets closer we could see some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms move into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania later in the day. Monday as the front moves into the region we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. The front will be slowing down as it drops south and east. Ahead of the front temperatures will become quite hot and we will see high dew points leading to high heat indexes. Tuesday we'll see the front continuing to ever so slowly Push towards the coast Ahead of the front temperatures will again be very hot and humid, Where is the boundary over the region we are probably stay unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front  will be pulling away off the Coast on Wednesday morning. Parts of southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front pulling away. The rest of the region should stay dry.