08/12/2025

Some like it hot Some don't!

The surface chart shows High pressure has started to shift east And we have a weak trough sitting over the region. It also shows The area of low pressure up near Hudson bay with the attached cold front and a prefrontal trough approaching from the west.

Today will be hot and moderately humid. Radar is showing not much going on over the region; With satellite showing mostly scattered cloud cover over the Northeast. But the infrared satellite does clearly show that cold front with the disturbed weather moving into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Today into this evening will feature a chance for some isolated showers or rogue thunderstorms but the vast majority of the region should stay dry. Those with the best chance of seeing any rain showers or storms during the afternoon into tonight, will be western parts of the region as the approaching prefrontal  trough gets closer.The isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will work their way east across the region tonight into tomorrow morning  as that prefrontal trough continues to move across the region.

The actual cold front will be moving into western parts of the region on Wednesday morning, Western New York and western Pennsylvania will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the morning into early afternoon. Then the rain Storms will let up. During the afternoon and to the evening as the cold front slowly pushes east;  the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will push into eastern New York state, eastern Pennsylvania and western new England. I'm not expecting widespread severe weather. But I can't rule out some isolated storms on the  strong severe side, with the main danger being Strong damaging winds from possible downburst. Rain could also be locally heavy. Those behind the front will be seeing temperatures cool off, while those ahead of the front will still be dealing with hotter temperatures and some humidity.

Thursday the cold front will still be moving south and east; bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in to eastern New England and into New Jersey Maryland and Delaware. Again, while widespread severe is not expected there could be some isolated strong to severe storms with the risk for strong damaging winds and heavy rain.

On Friday the cold front will be pushing east of the region leaving behind much cooler weather with lower humidity.  With high pressure over the region Friday Saturday into Sunday should be mostly dry . With only a chance for some widely scattered rain showers or rouge pop up thunderstorms. With temperatures generally remaining quite comfortable. Later Sunday a cold front will be approaching out of Canada and the great lakes This will bring a chance for rain showers and thunder storms to move into northern New England And northern New York State, as well as western New York State and northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will continue sliding south and east across the region for Monday bringing the chance  for rain showers and some thunderstorms with it for the rest of the region. High pressure will be building in for Tuesday Providing mostly dry conditions.

Tropical Storm Erin

Image credit Tomer Burg

The National Hurricane Center has her with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006MB. She's charging west at 23 mph. The cooler water and some Saharan dust in the eastern Atlantic are given Erin some issues, so she hasn't been able to organize much more than she was yesterday. But as she continues to move west over the next 24 hours she will be moving into where water temperatures are much warmer allowing her to strengthen.

Image credit Tomer Burg.

The above image dark line shows a southern shift of Erin from the lighter blue and red lines

 But, other than a slight southward shift in the model track Erin's forecast remains generally the same, with her a hurricane by Thursday and then likely a major hurricane by Saturday. It's still too soon to know if she will pose a direct impact risk for the East Coast. It's normal for the models to waffle around quite a bit. So we'll just have to wait and see if this trend continues.

Image credit Alex Boreham CyclonicWx

The intensity models show a lot of variability But the majority of them do seem to be concentrating on a strong category 2 or category 3 hurricane.

For those along the coast while I can't tell you not to worry; but I do say don't panic yet. For now just prepare, look over your hurricane safety plan and start getting some supplies just in case.  As is always the case follow the National Hurricane Center for official forecast and always pay attention to what your emergency weather managers and personnel have to tell you.