08/14/2025

 The heat and humidity is on it's way out But for how long.

The surface chart shows the cold front moving across the region. Radar shows not a lot going on across the region. This is due to the fact that that yesterday 's prefrontal trough zapped the atmosphere and took a lot of the energy with it. Today will feature a chance for isolated Rain showers and perhaps a few rogue thunderstorms here and there As the cold front glides through. Behind the front temperatures are cooler and less humid. Ahead of the front there is still some heat and higher humidity. But drier air is going to slowly work in today as the cold front continues to slowly push east. The main problem with the thunderstorms that pop up this afternoon and evening will be the chance for locally heavy rains.

Tonight and tomorrow, the cold front will either wash out or push to our east and out of the region. Taking the heat and humidity with it. Tomorrow high pressure will be approaching;  we will have a few weak troughs sitting over the region, these could kick off a few isolated showers or perhaps a rogue thunderstorm But the vast majority of us should stay dry. Saturday will see the high pressure Move in overhead This will be sitting Closer to northern new England and southeast Canada. So it will create a flow that will allow some of that heat and humidity to try to come back into the region. But, Saturday overall will just be a rinse and repeat of Friday with a chance for a few isolated showers or perhaps a rouge thundershower. 

On Sunday a cold front will be approaching out of Canada and the Great Lakes. This will bring the chance for widespread scattered rain showers and scattered thunderstorms, across northern New York State down through into Northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will continue to drop south and east during the day into Monday morning, with the scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms moving with it. Temperatures will be cooler For at least the 1st half of next week. Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we will see a stalled frontal boundary waffling around overhead, This will bring the chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

Erin and Invest 98L

I-98L Is at a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression.  There is an extremely small window for this to become a depression before moving inland over Mexico.

.Erin Is looking much more vibrant and is getting stronger.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has her maximum substained winds at 50 mph, a central pressure of 999MB, moving west at 17 mph.

Image credit Timer Burg and NHC

As I said she is looking stronger; on satellite we can see deep convection (thunderstorms) consolidating around her center. 

She is going to brush the islands in the northwest Caribbean She could bring tropical forest winds Into places like Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands.

She has been trending a little further west for the last few days. This has been especially true on the Euro model. 

Image credit Brian Tang

I touched on all of this yesterday When I said that as long as she stays weaker She will have a tendency to come further west. She has been dealing with those cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic as well as some dry air. But now that she's pulling into the central Atlantic SSTS are going to be much warmer. As she strengthens she is going to feel that pull northward, As she exploits that weakening between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and the high pressure that will be sitting over the central US. So as she strengthens she is going to feel that pull to the north and she will start to shift her track north and west. 

So she will become a hurricane soon and then likely become a major hurricane. A strong category 3 or maybe a category 4 hurricane are definitely in the cards. She has been behaving like I've been discussing over the last several days and I still expect her To stay away from the East Coast of the United States. But the question right now is just how close will she come to the coast. In previous post I have discussed the influences that are going to affect her track; these are still going to be the case. We have that strengthening high that's going to be sitting over the Southern Plains and the subtropical ridge sitting in the Atlantic to her east, is going to allow her to start to move north and east. Then depending on the exact location and timing of troughing that will be sitting up over southeast Canada, She will be tugged north and then deflected north and east. 

Image credit Timer Burg

I've had a few discussions with people on the models flipping back and forth on Aaron's track. This model behavior is very normal. Yesterday the euro was much further west than the GFS Today the models have flipped with the euro to the east and the GFS to the west But still the vast majority of the models are showing her staying off the East Coast and eventually recurving back out into the North Atlantic. So I don't expect any direct impacts on the East Coast of the US. But those from Carolinas up through New England and even Atlantic Canada are still going to want to keep an eye on this, just in case she does end up wobbling further west.  This westward trend in the models could be good news for Bermuda if she passes between Bermuda and the East Coast.  It is a given that she is going to bring very rough surf and strong rip currents along the East Coast.

Some of y'all are complaining that my post are just too detailed and long. I think it's better to try to explain why things are happening and show this to all y'all. But if you don't want me to do this, I will just post what is currently happening and leave the details and science out of it. Let me know what you want.