Erin and a look at the long range

 National Hurricane Center's Cone of Uncertainty.

The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Erin with maximum substained winds of 45 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, moving west at 17 mph.. Erin has been struggling the last couple days due to a bit of dry air with Saharan dust and moving over Sea surface temperatures (SST) of 78-80 °F. Later today and tomorrow She will be moving into warmer waters. She has also been flying west, but  she is now starting to slow her forward motion. Both of these things should allow her to strengthen, possibly with rapid development.

Image credit Tomer Burg

She is moving around that subtropical ridge. So she should start to make a turn more to the north Over the next couple of days, As she tries to exploit a weakness between the high pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure to the west, that will be retrograding west. The timing of all this will be another key to her track.

Right now, Erin looks to track just north of the Leeward islands. She will likely be a hurricane by Friday. Then  as she tracks north of the northeast Caribbean islands she should be a strengthening hurricane as she starts to pull north and west.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

She could be a strong category 3 hurricane by the time she is moving north.  But how far west she gets and how close she gets to the US Coast will depend partly on the orientation and strength of that ridge over the northern US and also her overall strength. The weaker she is the greater her chance  to come further west.  

Images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits and Tomer Burg

Right now she is looking like she will stay well east of the US east coast before heading north and east and out to sea, This will be due to a trough that will  be sitting over southeast Canada.  So even though Erin looks to stay east of the US mainland; those along the East Coast and in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on how she's faring and tracking. Those in Bermuda should also be keeping a very close eye on Erin.

A little on the long range

The climate prediction centers CPC 8-14 day outlook is favoring cooler than average temperatures over the Northeast into the Great Lakes and northern Middle Atlantic.

The CPC is also showing over the next 8-14 days Our region should be seeing average to below average precipitation.

Why this should occur

Looking at the upper level pattern over Alaska and into northwest Canada. We can see troughing building in out of the arctic into Alaska and Canada. 

 

Image credit Tropical Tidbits.

This is going to promote general troughing Great Lakes, Northeast,  into the northern Middle Atlantic. Over the last few weeks, I have been posting quite a bit of how we look to be trending as we head towards winter 2025-2026. Currently the a jet stream is to our north But over the next few weeks we are going to see the jet stream push south. Which will allow that colder air working into northwest Canada and Alaska to come down the trough axis and head into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic region. This doesn't mean that this is the end of the hot weather, as we should see more variability in the strengthening northern polar jet as we move closer to winter, so we can expect bouts of heat and cool as we move forward.