08/29/2025

 Happy Friday!

Looking at the 500 mb pattern courtesy of tropical tidbits. We have troughing up near the Aleutians  with a strong ridge over the Western US and troughing here in the East. This general pattern is going to be sticking with us for quite some time. So we're going to continue to stay cool as this type of setup favors cold fronts dropping south and east into the region.

The surface chart and radar Show the cold front moving over New York State and Pennsylvania With rain showers and thunderstorms some of which are severe out ahead of the cold front over New England.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Behind the cold front we have a polar air mass that is going to drop in over the region for the next several days, As high pressure will be in control. With the upper level low up over southeast Canada, temperatures are going to be below average for this time of year. But the air will be dry so humidity will be low. We will have  a few short waves moving through over the next few days; but they won't have a lot of moisture to work with. So most of the region should be dry. But I can't rule out a few rogue showers here and there.

Tuesday will see the high pressure start to drift east with increasing clouds moving in from the west. As the high pressure departs Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see a southwest flow set up over the region; allowing temperatures and humidity to start to climb. Wednesday night and Thursday we will have an area of low pressure to our south and a strong cold front approaching from the west. Both of these will bring rain showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday into Friday. How much remains to be seen.

Image credit tropical tidbits.

The low pressure over the Southeast and that strong cold front dropping in from the north and west. Depending on the timing of this interaction, we could see some wet weather for Thursday Friday into Saturday next week. But the low near the Southeast very well could be pushed out to sea ahead of the approaching cold front. so this lowers the odds of any kind of real coastal storm developing. It will all come down to timing and trough axis orientation; we'll just have to watch and see how this trends.

Tropics

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We had Tropical storm Fernand That formed in the southwest Atlantic on Saturday, I didn't post on it to any land areas. Fernand is post tropical now. 

Image credit Atlantic tropical headquarters.

The Atlantic currently is quiet But we do have a tropical wave that will be emerging off the West Coast of Africa that will have to be watched. The national hurricane center currently has the  7 day development odds at 30%. The odds of this developing into Gabrielle down the road are fairly decent. The wave looks to move into the eastern Atlantic By Sunday. Then it will be near and over the Cabo Verde islands Monday into Tuesday. Conditions in the Atlantic are conducive for this wave continuing to develop. By the time It approaches a central Atlantic It very well could be a tropical depression or storm Wednesday or Thursday. How far west this can come will depend on the strength and location of high pressure to its north in the Atlantic.

Have a great weekend