09/05/2025

 The surface chart shows the first cold front moving across the region; With the second stronger Cold front associated with that low pressure up over the northern great lakes approaching from the west. Radar Is showing Is showing that it is quiet across the region.

Gusty southern winds will keep the above average temperatures and higher levels of humidity around for today. The vast majority of y'all will stay dry this afternoon. But there will be a chance for a few isolated showers that could pop up anywhere today.  As that second Strong cold front approaches this evening we will see some rain showers move in over western parts of the region. As the cold front pushes east These rain showers and thunderstorms will move across the region tonight and tomorrow. Saturday we'll see clearing developing west to east as the day goes on. As that much colder Air mass Interacts with the warmer and humid air Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. As I indicated they would The SPC now has a marginal risk for severe storms extending from the Middle Atlantic region into much of New England. The main risk of the isolated severe storms will be the possibility of damaging wind gust from possible downburst, heavy rain will again be a problem. Yesterday's severe storms even produced an apparent brief tornado last evening in northern Oneida county New York. It was radar indicated But there has been damage reported on the ground. So the national weather service has a crew Surveying today and should be releasing a report later today. This shows what I always say, severe storms always have a chance for some Spin ups. So on severe weather days tornadoes can never completely be ruled out. So always have a way to be warned. The greatest opportunity for severe storms tomorrow Will be from around 1PM Into around 10PM.

After the chance for some lingering rain showers Sunday morning over The northern middle Atlantic and New England. Sunday should be dry. The cold air And low humidity coming in behind this cold front Is going to be below average. The high pressure is going to stay in charge For Monday through Thursday. The vast majority of should stay dry during that time. Then for later Thursday and to friday A weak moisture starve cold front Will move through. Right now I don't think many of us will see any rain out of this but there will be a chance for isolated showers. High pressure will move back in for later friday and over the weekend, bringing back tranquil weather conditions.

Tropical Atlantic

The national hurricane center has invest 91L odds of development at 60% over the next 2 days and 90% over the next 7. Currently this is having generally west at around 8 mph. Heading in the direction of the Lesser Antilles.

On satellite I-91L is looking a bit less disorganized than it was yesterday at this time. There is a little more sporadic convection (thunderstorms) developing. 

Image credit Tract the tropics

Image courtesy of Tomer Burg

Image courtesy of weather models website.

Conditions do support the idea of slow development of this over the upcoming weekend. But the system has been struggling and continues to do so. We have 5-7 days To keep an eye on this to see if it can get it's act together. The national hurricane center still thinks this will become a tropical depression 7 or even a name system during the upcoming weekend. If it becomes named it will be called Gabrielle.