Is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season done?

So far the 2025 hurricane season in the Atlantic has seen 13 named storms, five of which became hurricanes, of those five, four became major hurricanes, With three of those becoming category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto and Melissa).

While 2025 didn't see the numbers of named storms that was forecast, It was still a powerful and long lived season, as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE). 

Ace is a system that involves an equation that takes a tropical cyclones sustained wind speeds and a tropical cyclones lifespan to come up with a value. The stronger the sustained winds and the longer the tropical cyclone last; the higher the ACE index value becomes. When it comes to figuring out the overall activity for an entire season. The ACE index of each individual tropical cyclone is added together to come up with the total value for the season. The higher the ACE amount for that season the more active the season is considered.

The 2025 seasons ace index for year to date stands at 135.502 in the North Atlantic. Any season That accumulates more than 121.2 ace points is considered an above average season. Based on the 30 year average, an ace index value of 122.5 is generally considered average for the entire season in the North Atlantic Basin.

When it comes to seasonal Category 5 activity, 2025 only trails second only to 2005. As the only known hurricane season to have four category 5 hurricanes.

If we hadn't had several weeks of zero activity in the Atlantic Basin right around the peak of the hurricane season We will have undoubtedly seen more named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The reason we had the unusual lull at the peak of the season Had to do with a lot of dry air along with a stable air mass during that time. The Trade winds were also stronger than average, which created a lot of wind shear. As many of y'all know wind shear interferes with a tropical cyclones development.

Is the 2025 hurricane season over?

We're getting very close to the end of the Atlantic hurricane season which officially comes to an end on November 30th.

Historically November is a very quiet month when it comes to tropical activity. 

The National Hurricane Center's forecast is showing no activity for the next 7 days

While it can't be completely ruled out, it is looking increasingly likely that we won't see any tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the rest of this month. Why is that the case?

Currently the Atlantic is being bombarded by a lot of wind shear. There are a few pockets where the wind shear is less over the Atlantic. But the region is also being impacted by a lot of dry air. So even if something tries to spin up in these lower wind shear pockets the amount of dry air should squash anything that tries to develop.

During November we typically do not see anything out over the Tropical Atlantic Main Development region itself. Instead we look for possible development in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast of the United States in the Southwest Atlantic, sometimes we can get something to form in the Gulf of America.

The reason for this has to do with the fact that this time in the year We typically see the jet stream Dip further south When this happens We can see areas of low pressure and troughs dropping into Caribbean and off the East Coast. The waters in these areas are still typically more than warm enough for tropical activity. The other factors Like wind shear and dryer Can make it very problematic that anything can develop. Typically During November An area low pressure that is trying to develop has to be sitting over these warm waters For at least a couple of days, Before it can really start to try to develop. Also during November that southern jet stream can become quite active. As a result these systems usually run out of time and just don't develop, as wind shear and other factors take over the pattern.

All of the reasons I have gone over is why we see absolutely nothing over the tropical Atlantic. But we do see a disturbance in the southwest Caribbean That will have to continue to be monitored.

I doubt that this system in the Caribbean is going to have enough time To really develop into anything noteworthy. The pattern and time of year is just too much against it.

Based on everything I'm seeing I think Melissa is going to be the last named system in the Atlantic for 2025. I do believe the season is over!