Here we go again!

 

As I said during this week, the high-pressure heat dome out west, was going to shift east. So, while it cools off in the west; the east is going to heat up!

 The heat dome is shifting eastward out of the Plains. By later Sunday into Monday the heat will be impacting the Ohio Valley across Pennsylvania into the Mid-Atlantic for the first part of next week. These areas will see temperatures in the 90’s, the higher humidity will make for high heat indexes.  Northward across the rest of the Northeast, it will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80’s.

As we saw with the last bout of heat a few weeks ago. Along the northern edge of that heat dome there will be showers and thunderstorms around it out of the northern Plains that will drop through the Upper Midwest, into the Northeast into New England. So, of these could be stronger thunderstorm complexes.

 

 

 

0-5 day

5-10 day

10-15 day

Over the next few weeks, lack of persistent blocking south of Alaska, means the pattern is going to be flip flopping around. But this is typical of Fall.  

We’re in a strong El Nino that continues to strengthen. When we look back a past strong to very strong El Nino’s, a September pattern shows up.  

Generally, the Southern and Central Plains up into the Northeast tended to be slightly warmer than average. So, we’re going to continue to see a back and forth between heat and cool, with generally milder than average temperatures overall.

The Southeast up and northern Middle Atlantic up into the Northeast trends drier than average.

This would indicate that the southern jet will become quite active during September, allowing disturbances to move across the south and then recurve up into the Middle Atlantic  

Tropical

What’s left of Dolly, is approaching the northeastern Caribbean, the remnant wave are still battling widespread dry air and strong wind shear. This will bring needed rain to the Leeward Islands into tomorrow, then tomorrow afternoon into Sunday night, it will move into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto. After that is could bring rain showers to Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. There is a chance once this moves north of Hispaniola it could redevelop due to lower windshear and warmer SST, but she will likely be completely disrupted by then.  But the odds are low, the NHC is giving it 10% odds of this happening.

 That weak area of low pressure is called Invest 97L. This looks to drift west with showers and gusty conditions along the Gulf Coast. The odds of this developing is very low due to wind shear and land interaction.  The NHC is giving it 7-day development odds of 20%.