2019 Fall overview

This Fall overview will cover October 1 through December 1 .

The fall equinox was Monday, I've been fielding several questions about what the weather will be like for the next couple of months.  So I wanted to post a little detail on what I think is going to happen.

Autumn is a transition period between the heat and humidity of Summer and the cold and snow of Winter. The plant growth is slowing way down. And the leaves are changing their colors here in Northern New York State, on the Tug Hill. I won't have all the charts and model runs I sometimes post for these outlook. Instead this one will be straight to the point, I have found too much information confuses some of y'all.

But I want to say something that is important. As with all my seasonal outlooks, this one will be about the overall average for the entire region. So there will be times when it's warm and other times when it's cool. A regional seasonal outlook isn't a local forecast. it is a guide that shows what I think, the conditions for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will be like.

Despite the overall fall like temperatures of late, Summer isn't ready to give up just yet.

The pattern is going to generally be overall warm into end of October and starting November.  Temperatures should be above average,  most likely averaging generally + 1 °F to +2 °F above average.  Southeast Pennsylvania into the Mid Atlantic Region could see +2 °F close to +3 °F above average.

As far as precipitation. Not counting any tropical moisture we could see.....overall precipitation is looking to be right around average for this time of year, with those along the coast having a chance for slightly above average rainfall.  

The general storm pattern looks to see systems moving across southern Canada. This should allow for a changeable setup, with troughs and ridges moving in and then moving out. We also could see a few nor'easters during the 2nd half of October into November.

The interior New York into western and central Pennsylvania will be slightly warm. New England and the Mid Atlantic Region will be a bit warmer overall.

late October and into November. eastern Pennsylvania, New England, into the Mid Atlantic will be seeing the pattern cooling, with a greater chance of seeing wetter conditions.

With the general overall warmth, snowfall shouldn't be a big issue. but there could be a few snow events for end of October and November. So Many of us shouldn't see any white stuff. But northern parts of the region could see accumulating snow end of October  to end of November.

The pattern The first two thirds of this fall will be overall slightly warmer than average, then as we head into the 2nd half of November into December we will transition to a much cooler configuration.   Once we get into the first part of December, the pattern should've switched to the one I talked about in my preliminary 2019-2020 winter outlook,  with general troughing and  cold in the east.

Also remember, the pattern during the Fall is no indication of the winter pattern. 

If you what to read my thoughts on the upcoming winter you can find it here.

My 2019-2020 preliminary winter outlook.