My preliminary look at winter 2019 2020

Howdy,  Here are my first thoughts on what we can expect from the white stuff for winter 2019-2020.

Many have asked what do I expect to happen this winter? This is an overview, but still it is fairly detailed. As Always, I try to keep things in plain speak, and avoid the real technical side of all of this.

Anyway, let's get into all of this.

 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

SSTs, as in all weather patterns will play a big role in how winter 2019-2020 turns out.  Here is a chart showing the current SST anomalies, compared to above average and below average temperatures. 

Teleconnections:

 The El Nino Southern Oscillation:

In the Pacific, when we have cooler than average SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific we're in a La Nina, when we have  warmer than average SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific we're in a El Nino. Right now,  eastern equatorial Pacific are somewhat cool, but not enough to be called a La Nina; so we're in a neutral setup.  We can also see all those warm SSTs in the Northeast Pacific, this involves other teleconnections ..... But remember the ENSO isn't the only thing determining what will happen.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Some of the models dealing with the SOI are strongly hinting at a ENSO  cool  neutral phase and have been flirting with La Nina territory. But it will most likely be a warm neutral to very weak El Nino.  

Here is a look at the  IRC/CPC plume.

 The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

Is in a weakening west to east phase. Some are concerned that this is a prelude to the easterly QBO is going to fail, like it did in 2016.  But I don't think that will be the case.  This is most likely because the QBO has stalled or possibly reversed during September.  When looking at past data, a stall like this is fairly common. So this is more than likely just a temporary event.  I don't see the easterly QBO falling apart for the winter of 2019-2020.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

Like the ENSO, the PDO has a warm and a cool phase.  When the SST anomalies are cool along the Pacific West Coast into the Gulf of Alaska and warm across the interior North Pacific, the PDO is considered in a negative (cool) phase.  When the SST anomalies are warm along the Pacific West Coast into the Gulf of Alaska and cool across the interior North Pacific, the PDO is considered in a positive (warm) phase.  winter 2019-2020 will consist of a warm PDO.

If the ENSO and the PDO are in the same phase, the impacts typically associated with the ENSO are intensified. Likewise if they are in opposite phases the impacts of the ENSO are diminished. When the two are out of phase with each other they tend to offset each other to an extent.  

Warm blob in the Gulf of Alaska and off the Pacific Northwest combined with the cool eastern Pacific in ENSO region 1+2 and extending into region 3, typically equates to cold winter pattern in the east.  This SST setup in the Pacific,  should allow for ridging in the Western CONUS with a trough east of the Rockies.  We most likely will see ridging off the East Coast in the North Atlantic.

The polar jet should dip south into the Northern Great Plains, South of the Ohio Valley, over to North Carolina and then move off Mid Atlantic and New England Coast.

Like the Pacific, the Atlantic has to be taken into consideration as well.  

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are warm.

For the last 18 to 24 months the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has been negative.  But over the last 6 to 8 weeks the AMO has been positive. This is one of the major reasons the Tropical Atlantic has been so active the last few weeks. Typically when the AMO flips to a negative or positive phase it will generally stay in that phase for 15-30 years.  The flip of late to positive, has caught me by surprise (and has placed my Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in jeopardy). I will have to keep a close eye on the AMO as we move closer to winter, as it will have a big impact on how things turn out.   

The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):

For August, the AO and NAO have been negative. Then it went positive for the first part of September. Since then it has gone back to negative. The current pattern would line up with the idea of an overall Negative NAO during winter 2019-2020. If this is the case, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic would have a greater likelihood of cold air intrusions. If we see an overall Negative NAO, it would help amplify the cold air over the Northeast.

We have a warm blob near Greenland. This should help reinforce a ridge in the North Atlantic. Helping to setup a tendency for more blocking near Greenland, than we saw last winter.   

A little on some of the models:

The models are showing and forecasting a warm neutral winter...... Of all the models the GMAO seems to have the best handle on the ENSO, and is definitely an outlier .  It is the only one showing a cooler look....while the full blown La Nina it's showing is unlikely....I do like the fact that it is showing a cooler look.

The JAMTEC is showing a lot of coolness in the East and a lot of warmth in the West

The CFS is showing a blowtorch. But this is nothing new, for the CFS couldn't find cold if it tried.  

Looking back at past winters, we've seen similar SST anomalies; the most recent was 2013-2014 

Analogs:

1857-1858, 1969-1970, 1977-1978 double weighted, 1980-1981, 2005-2006, 2013-2014 triple weighted, 2014-2015, 2018-2019.

Early season snowfall:  

 As has been the case in recent years in North America we're seeing early season snowfall.

Looking back as far as 1998, only 2002 and 2010 had more snow cover at this time of the year. So we're doing very well as far as snow.   

GFS image from WeatherBell

This and that:

When I looked at the 10hpa zonal winds over the North Pole; they were a bit weaker than average for early Autumn. This means the Polar Vortex (PV) is more disorganized than is typical. If this continues, we could be more prone to arctic air invading or region.

Solar activity is at very low levels, with no visible sunspots. The GWV Solar Activity tracker confirms that we're at solar minimum. This is another good  signal that we could be prone to some cold outbreaks this winter.

The Verdict:

One thing I want to make clear.  The temperature and snowfall outlooks are based on an overall average for the entire region. That means there will be warmth at times and cold at other times.  Storms will miss some areas and lambaste other areas.  Every season has winners and losers.  A seasonal outlook isn't designed to be a local forecast; it is a guide that shows what the overall Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will likely experience.  

Also my snowfall outlook is based on first to last snowflake.

Regional Outlook:

This winter most likely will be a hybrid El Nino...

The polar jet might be a bit farther south than is typical of a neutral ENSO.

Clippers and Gulf Lows should track into the Northeast this winter.   The Subtropical Jet should mind its manners. This would mean we would be less prone to big Nor'easters. But if the timing was right, we could see a few phases between the polar jet and the subtropical jet. The Nor'easters we do see, should be of the Miller B variety... Link to my post on Northeasters and storm types.....      

 Temperature Overview:

Like last September, September 2019 started a bit cooler, then the rest of the Month has been warm.  

The Southeast ridge with the warmth, is going to surge northward from time to time during October. So as has been the trend the last few years, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will be battling early season warmth.

Overall, temperatures will be below average. This year the bulk of the cold looks like it will be centered in the upper Midwest, Midwest, and around the Great Lakes.

Western and Northern New York State as well as Western Pennsylvania (this could end up extending into Virginia and part of North Carolina as well)  will be much colder than average, averaging out around 3-4 degrees below average, with the rest of us slightly below average to below average , overall they look to be around 1-2 degrees below average.

Snowfall/Winter Precipitation:

Interior Northeast, back into the Ohio Valley, West Virginia, and western Virginia will be the bulls eye for snowfall

The snow belts off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario should do very well this winter.

Winter Precipitation Overview:

Dec -Feb

The Middle Atlantic (Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Central and Southern New Jersey will be above average. much of the rest of Pennsylvania,  Southeast New York State (including the Catskills and Hudson Valley, Southern New England, Southern Vermont, much of New Hampshire and Southern Maine, will see slightly above average, with Northeast Pennsylvania, the rest of New York State and Northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern Maine will end up seeing around average Winter Precipitation.

Snowfall Overview:

 Most of our region will see 25% to 50% above average. So whatever your annual average snowfall is you would add 25% to 50% to it.

 Here is a better break down....

You take your average yearly snowfall * the percentage  = add that to your yearly snowfall. This will equal your new adjusted snowfall amount from this outlook.

 That about covers things.  But it is only the end of September so there is plenty of time for things to change.  So some if not several variables could change before I release my final outlook. The final outlook will most likely be released around the Middle of November.