The Caribbean...

Still watching the southwestern and central Caribbean.

We will likely see a tropical depression or even a tropical storm form by this weekend or early next week The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the 7-day development odds up to 50%. But I looking at the overall setup, the odds are undoubtedly higher than that.

We’ve been watching this area for awhile now, but the high wind shear has kept a lid on things. But the wind shear is going to weaken in much of the Caribbean next week. The SST are well above average 85 to 88 degrees, with a lot of pockets of deep ocean heat content. There looks to be plenty of moisture. So, this will make for a very supportive environment.

 It remains to be seen, if drier air over the Gulf could get involved with the overall setup.  Right now, pass mid next week, something could try and slip into the Gulf. But windshear over the Gulf could become an issue for any tropical cyclone trying to develop.

There will be a couple other areas to watch, one near Puerto Rico and the other west of the Azores. 

The next name on the list is Patty.

Right now, nothing to worry about, just something to watch.