We’re not done with warm weather yet!

 

Todays Northeast weather discussion…

That long stretch of well above average temperatures, spoilt many of us. The cold frontal passage brought some rain and even a few thunderstorms, but the rain wasn’t all that much, and didn’t do anything for the drought conditions plaguing parts of the region.  Behind the cold front that came through we seen the days start cool, but then we warm up during the afternoon.  

Today is going to be dry. But a weak cold front approaching will bring the chance for light rain showers into western parts of the region this evening. This front is moisture starved so it won’t have a lot to work with when it comes through. The front will come through Saturday into Sunday. Winds will be breezy with the frontal passage. There will be a chance isolated rain showers and high elevation snow showers for Saturday into Sunday. The rain could be a bit more substantial across northern New York State and northern New England, as these areas will be closer to the low pressure. Those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be dealing with scattered lake effect rain/snow showers. This lake effect shouldn’t be too heavy, more of a nuance than anything.

High pressure will build in for Sunday allowing for sunshine. Most of Sunday should be dry. This dry stretch looks to last into Thursday. Next week the high pressure will start to drift east, a warm front will bring a strong southern flow that will bring a return of very warm temperatures for Tuesday into Thursday. Nights into early mornings will be quite cool, so there will be frost issues. Then we will see another weak cold front approach for Halloween Thursday. Depending on timing, this could set off some rain showers across western parts of our region for Halloween, along with cooler temperatures. The front would continue to move through on Friday, bringing the risk for isolated to widely scattered showers.

We’re not done with above average temperatures I expect the first half of November to be overall seasonally warm.

The Drought

 In spite of the wet summer. The region needs the rain, many parts of the region haven’t seen a lot of rain since the end of August. So, rainfall deficits, some of these deficits are over 10 inches; leading to a large swarf of moderate, severe and even extreme drought.

This week

Last Week

The U.S. Drought Monitor Map released yesterday, shows extreme drought in the southwestern corner of the Northeast. Severe drought expanded in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Moderate drought increased in coverage in areas closer to the coast from Maryland up to Maine. Abnormal dryness expanded in Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland, and West Virginia.

The map shows 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 4% in extreme drought, 7% in severe drought, 18% in moderate drought, and 35% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 4%, 5%, 14%, and 38%, respectively, last week 

Tropical Atlantic.

The Atlantic is quiet right now, but we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean for the middle to end of next week. Conditions look to be favorable, so we will see!