The Roller Coaster Continues

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

The surface chart shows the cold front approaching, with increasing southwest winds ahead of the front.  Radar shows rain over New York State into northern New England and extending down into western Pennsylvania. We also see lake effect rain falling northeast of Lake Erie. Lake effect rain will also be an issue downwind of Lake Ontario today.  

 As the front continues to push east, rain be more isolated, also as the front moves through temperatures will slowly fall. There could be lingering rain over parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England tomorrow morning, before clearing develops.  High pressure will bring plenty of sun, and dry conditions for Thursday, temperatures will be near seasonal.  

Sunday the high pressure will start to push east, a cold front will approach, as this moves through, scattered rain showers will work west to east into Monday. I don’t expect a lot of rain out of this.  Tuesday high pressure move back in along with chilly morning temperatures, then milder temperatures in the afternoon. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday. Thursday we will be watching a frontal system in the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

  Rafael

After becoming a hurricane last evening, he has rapidly strengthened to a very strong Category 2, with Max sustained winds of 110 mph, central pressure at 960 mb, tracking northwest at 14 mph, as he moves along the boundary of that ridge of high pressure off the Southeast Coast.  

He is still intensifying due to the very favorable conditions. He will likely be a major Category 3 hurricane by the time he reaches Cuba.

As the ridge builds west it should keep him tracking northwest into the central GOM, then likely a shift west before reaching the northern Gulf Coast of Louisiana or Texas. As I’ve been saying there is going to be a lot of windshear and some dry air over the Gulf of Mexico so that should weaken him, prior to any landfall in the GOM. On satellite he is showing good outflow, this will help him battle the increasing wind shear as he gets into the Gulf of Mexico. So Rafael might weaken slower than I’ve been thinking.

On a rare political sidestep when it comes to my post... With the election behind us, I hope as a country, our people can find a way to bridge the deep and bitter divisions, that are the greatest threat to this country. We can disagree without all the hate!