11/30/2025 ... nor'easter?

The pattern I've been talking about for 4-6 weeks is coming to fruition! 

Surface chart and radar

Today's storm

We can see the low pressure moving into southeast Canada bringing in light snow showers across parts of the region, As temperatures warm Much of the snow across New York State into New England is going to change over to rain during the afternoon. General snowfall accumulations across New York state and into New England should be a trace to perhaps 3 inches. But the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks and the northern Greens could see 4-10 inches of snow, as this light snow will continue into tonight, along with some lake effect snow developing. Today is going to be quite chilly and breezy, with general southern wind  gust of 35-45 miles an hour possible at times.

Any lake effect should be dwindling down Tomorrow morning. High pressure will built in providing a fairly nice day.

Storm for Tuesday into Wednesday

We're going to see the disturbance moving across the central Plains and it's going to be interacting with a disturbance with moisture coming up out of the Gulf of America. 

A shortwave trough is going to move across dragging in colder air across a large part of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. We're likely to see some low pressure develop along the boundary of the cold to the north and the warmth to the south. This shortwave is going to interact with the energy coming towards the Carolinas, likely leading to a coastal low developing. There is a chance that this could develop into a possible nor'easter.With the strong jet streak overhead this could rapidly strengthen as it's moving north and east. With this idea in mind, this could bomb out as it heads towards Nova Scotia.

The GFS model is being much more aggressive with this than the EURO model. But there seems to be a trend that is having the storm  develop  further south and east. 

Based on that idea here are my 1st thoughts on possible impacts across the region.

Ice could be an issue for parts of the Appalachians into parts of western Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania. But Delaware and central/southern New Jersey should be dealing with just a rain mix and plain rain.

For DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City precipitation will likely start out as snow, before changing over to a rain mix and then rain. A trace to a inch Will be possible across these areas.

North and west of the I-95 corridor will see more in the way of snow

For Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island up into southeastern Massachusetts including the Cape and Off-Shore islands a trace to 2-3 inches. While northern Connecticut and most of the rest of Massachusetts  including Boston could see 2-6 inches of snow.

Western Pennsylvania western New York could see a trace to perhaps as much as 3 inches, Northern New York state Into northern Vermont And northern New Hampshire and northern Maine 2-4 inches of snow is possible, with central Pennsylvania, central New York State, Central Vermont, Central New Hampshire and central Maine 3-6 inches of snow is possible.

Across northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, southeast New York State (Including the central Hudson valley), as well as parts of the Adirondacks, northwest Connecticut, much of Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire into southern Maine there could be a heavy thump of snow. The pattern is very progressive So this will be a fast moving storm. A general 4-8 inches could fall with higher amounts possible, This will be especially true for the Catskills up into the Berkshires and southern Greens where 10-14 inches could fall. 

Thursday we are going to see a strong cold front dropping across New York State and into the rest of the region. Behind this cold front we are going to see Colder air Reinforce the cold air that's already in place, This will lead to widespread snow showers across parts of the region with heavy bands of lake effect possible downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.

These are just my preliminary thoughts There is plenty of time for things to change impacts will depend on the exact track the storm takes.

Taking a look at December!

Meteorological Winter starts on December 1st.

Tropopause:

Looking at the temperatures in the tropopause, that area between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere, is very cold and it is pointed right at the lower 48 here in the United States.

During this past fall, I was posting almost every week on how the winter pattern was evolving and how it was comparing to past winters. In one of the winter post In September I brought up the winter of 1983-1984 as a possible analogue and how we had an early Sudden Stratopheric warming event that occurred in November 1983. That event led to a very cold December across the eastern 2⁄3 of the United States.

Like we did in 1983, we are dealing with another early sudden stratospheric warming event, The current event looks to allow this coming December to also be quite cold. 

Image credit tropical tidbits

The European model is showing an overall northwest flow during at least the 1st half of December. This keeps the eastern US quite cold. This also sets up a storm track that favors the Great Lakes, Midwest into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. 

The active weather we have been seeing looks to continue for at least the next 2-3 weeks.  With the cold air that looks to be locking into place along with an active storm track that looks to favor the Northeast and Middle Atlantic a large part of December is looking to be very snowy. I touched on all this in the winter outlook. What I said in the outlook is indeed looking to become increasingly likely. There are strong hints that behind the Tuesday storm of this week we could see another snow storm move through the region next weekend!

11/28/2025

 I hope everyone had a wonderful and safe thanksgiving!

Here is a look at the current surface chart and regional radar.

We can see the cold front is advancing along with lake effect snow falling downwind of both lakes Erie and Ontario. There is an upper lake connection with Lake Huron and Georgian Bay helping enhance the snow coming off from Erie and especially Ontario. Winds today will be 10-25 miles an hour, With some cost of 40-45 mph. With the cold temperatures and gusty winds The lake effect is tracking well inland. The lake effect is going to continue to fall through tonight with heavy snow continuing under the most intense parts of the bands. The lake snow is going to continue into Saturday morning and then gradually diminish and wane. Away from the lakes there will be a chance for a few scattered snow showers especially in the higher elevations of New York State and northern into central New England. A general 2-4 "Is likely over much of the Greens, Berkshires and White mountains. Elsewhere across much of New York State and New England a coating to possibly a couple inches will be possible. There could be some minor accumulations in the Catskills and Poconos. We have the cold temperatures There's a possibility for spots of black ice So take care when you're driving. 

Starting tonight through  tomorrow high pressure is going to briefly build in. This would lead to much more sunshine away from the Great Lakes. This high pressure will drift away from the region tomorrow night. Then we're going to see an area of low pressure approaching the region for Sunday.

This winter pattern is going to continue to be active. On top of that, we're going to see waves of cold air continue to come in well into December. These waves are going to continue to reinforce the cold air that was in place before them keeping us very cool to cold for at least the next couple of weeks. This doesn't mean there won't be some warmth Intermixed in with these cold waves. But generally and overall It looks to be cold as we move through at least the 1st half of December.

Looking at the next 5-7 days.

We're looking at back to back storms across the northern tier of the United States. I started talking about these Earlier this week. The second storm is looking much more likely than it was.

Storm # 1

We have a disturbance over the northwest Pacific. This is going to move across the Rockies and exit into the plains heading towards Iowa. We are likely to see a swath of heavy snow on the northern side of this system in the northern  Rockies and across the northern Plains. The same will be in store for the Midwest into the Great Lakes as this system cuts over the Great Lakes and tracks into Ontario Canada. Tomorrow there's going to be a lot of snow falling over the Midwest and up over the Great Lakes, Places like northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota will see a  lot of snow. The heavy snow will shift into Canada as well. 

For western Pennsylvania and western into northern New York State A northern into possibly central new England, this will likely start as snow snow mix That as the winds change more to the southerly direction We should warm up enough that this should turn over to rain. These areas will likely end up with a few inches of snow, with several inches of accumulation in the higher elevations,  before things switch over to rain. The poconos and Catskills could end up with a light accumulation of perhaps as much as an inch.

Storm #2

This storm is currently sitting up near the Aleutians. This fairly weak piece of energy is going to head for the Pacific Northwest by tomorrow and then drop into the Rockies from here it'll work its way south and east, heading towards Oklahoma and Kansas. At this point we will have a weak disturbance near the Gulf of America with a lot of moisture associated with it.The system that will be heading towards the Ozarks looks to interact with this disturbance and Gulf moisture. This interaction will cause the system to deepen and continue strengthening as it heads north and east towards the Carolinas and or Virginia. By the time it makes it  close to the Middle Atlantic It could become fairly potent. After this forms near the Middle Atlantic It will likely travel north and east south and east of New England heading towards the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. This is going to be dragging in plenty of cold air across a large part of our region.

Based on how things look right now . Tuesday and Wednesday this looks to leave heavy plowable snow over Eastern Pennsylvania, the eastern half of New York State and into much of New England. For Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into New York City and Long Island this will likely be all rain or rain mix, with the heavier snow falling north and west of there, there will still be some snow over western Pennsylvania and western New York State. But the heavier snow should be to their east. These are preliminary thoughts as there is plenty of time for this to change The snow amounts and impacts are going to depend on how this possible storm tracks.

We are going to see high pressure build back in overhead for Thursday and Friday.

11/25/2025

 Rain  moving and a big pattern change on the way!

Surface chart shows high pressure giving way to approaching low pressure and cold front. Satellite and radar show the thickening clouds and rain moving across the region .

The rain is tracking generally southwest to northeast. The rain should reach eastern New York State and northern Middle Atlantic Late this afternoon into this evening, Then move into new England. 

The continental IR satellite image shows the strong shortwave in the southern stream over the Mississippi river valley. This is going to continue to push north and east. The scattered rain will be an issue today, With the rain showers lingering through tonight and the overnight. March of the region On Wednesday could see some dry time tomorrow morning. As very mild temperatures for this time of year surge in ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will be moving Later Wednesday morning A crossed western New York state and western Pennsylvania. This cold front will continue to advance during the afternoon and evening. With the cold front we will see strong winds move into the region, generally winds of 10-30 miles an hour with gust of 40-50 plus miles an hour at times possible. With  the front we will likely see rain that could be moderate to heavy at times advance across the region, Embedded thunderstorms will also be possible. Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to be in free fall as that very cold air moves into the region.  Thanksgiving day should be mostly dry across the region But it will still be cold and very windy. Those Thanksgiving Day parade floats may have some issues. Black Friday is looking to be similar with very chilly and windy conditions. 

I've been talking about this big pattern change for a few weeks now so anyone who follows my weather forecast shouldn't be surprised.

Lake Effect

The general forecast I posted yesterday hasn't changed. As the bands set up they will likely start out as rain or rain snow mix before changing over to all snow.

Lake effect snow warnings are starting to be issued.

Image credit Pivotal weather

Lake Erie

Wednesday evening Lake effect snow should be falling near and over Buffalo The band looks to basically stay here for much of the overnight. The band will start dropping southward on Thanksgiving Day, Making it into the southern tier of New York State And finger lakes by the afternoon. As the winds As the winds change orientation we're going to see a second band set up over the Niagara Frontier and south of Lake Ontario on Thanksgiving Day, Bringing accumulating lake snow to these areas. The southern band should be set up over northwest Pennsylvania Thursday night. Right now it looks like a general 6-12 " of snow with higher amounts possible over western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania. Again the winds will be strong enough that accumulating snow will push inland and could get close to or even into Syracuse. The areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations will be Chautauqua, Cattaragus, Erie, and Wyoming Counties, Where 6-18 "of accumulation is likely with locally higher amounts very possible. Some of this lake effect could make it even into the Catskills and Poconos at times

Lake Ontario

Wednesday night lake effect should develop over Jefferson into Saint Lawrence counties. Then overnight and much of Thanksgiving Day this band is going to strengthen on those southwest winds with heavy lake effect snow falling across northern Oswego, northern into central lewis and southern Jefferson Counties.  During this time a general 12-18 " of snow with locally higher amounts is likely to fall, this will include the Tug Hill. Winds will be strong enough that this will extend away from the lake with 6- 12" possible across northern Herkimer county into the western Adirondacks. By 7 to 8 PM the band should start slowly shifting south, This will continue through the overnight with the lake band setting up near and over Syracuse and areas south and west of Utica on Black Friday morning. Lake snows will also likely be falling over Rochester and areas south of Lake Ontario, Right now a general 6-12 " of accumulation is very is likely for these areas. With the higher hills south of Syracuse and south of the Mohawk Valley very likely seeing higher amounts.

All of this is preliminary, over the next couple of days the data gets better. That could change the timing and accumulation amounts. If these parameters  change dramatically I will post another update on the lake snows tomorrow. When dealing with lake effect conditions can go from clear to a white-out in a matter of minutes, So those traveling in and around the Great Lakes will want to keep this in mind. As travel at times under the heaviest bands could be near impossible and very treacherous.

High pressure will be settling in for Saturday. This should allow the lake snows to dissipate. Then on Sunday we will be watching an area of low pressure leaving the Great Lakes heading into Canada This will have a leading warm front and a trailing cold front move across the region. Scattered showers will move through. We will have to be on the lookout for a possibility of some icing as temperatures will be fairly cool and around that freezing mark. The temperatures will continue to climb and as the bulk of the rain moves in temperatures across much of the region should be warm enough that it will be all rain. As temperatures drop Higher elevation snow showers are likely to develop over New York State and New England. High pressure looks to build in for Monday before another Cold snap drops in for Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday we will have to watch and see if low pressure develops to our south or near the Middle Atlantic coast, If this develops and of tracks up the coast; we could have more in the way of snow across at least parts of our region. If it doesn't form then we're more likely to see scattered snow showers.

11/24/2025

 The changes I've been talking about are almost here!

Today is rather quiet as a weak trough drops down across the region. On the surface chart We can see the high pressure Centered just to herself over the Virginias.

Regional radar shows only a few isolated snow showers mainly over New York State. Today is going to feature light winds seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Bought a few Rain showers and higher elevational snow showers will be possible.

But on the infrared satellite image we can see changes are on the way!

The disturbance centered over the Ozarks Is going to head our way. The leading warm front will lift through the region tomorrow followed by the trailing cold front on Wednesday. 

Ahead of that warm front on Tuesday we will see clouds increasing; With rain showers advancing across the region southwest to northeast. As the day goes on winds will be increasing Generally 5-10 miles an hour with gust of 20-25 miles an hour possible. For Wednesday ahead of that cold front Winds could become very gusty With gust of 40-50+ miles an hour possible. It is going to turn very mild for Tuesday and Wednesday. So for Tuesday and Wednesday most of the region will be dealing with just rain showers. The peaks of the high elevations and perhaps northern Maine could see a few snow/ mix showers. These rain showers will be more scattered in nature. Neither day will see a wash out.  The  best time for moderate to perhaps briefly heavy rainfall should be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

Wednesday will start out with lingering rain and a chance for some higher elevation snow/mix showers Then we will get some dry time. Before we watch a line of rain, snow showers with embedded thunder work its way across the region. This will be ahead of the cold front. The winds will remain very strong with gust of 50+ miles an hour quite possible. Behind this cold front We are going to see very cold air move into the region with temperatures plunging Wednesday night into Thursday.

The Lower Great Lakes.

The national weather service has already issued Winter storm watches for areas downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. As we get closer to the event we will see these watches turn to  warnings. We're also likely to see wind advisories and maybe warnings issued as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Image courtesy of pivotal weather

The cold air moving over The great lakes will wake up the lake effect snow machine. Things will likely start out as a rain snow mix, Then changeover to all snow. The lake effect looks to start later Wednesday evening off of Lake Erie. The band off from Erie looks to primarily target the areas just south of Buffalo.  Then on Wednesday night as the cold air filters in we will see lake effect snow start to fall northeast of Lake Ontario up over Jefferson and Saint Lawrence counties off of Lake Ontario. For Thursday We will see Heavier bands of lake effect snow one north of buffalo over the Niagara frontier and another one primarily south of Buffalo. The bands will continue to shift south Into the Southern Tier and Finger lakes during the day. For lake Ontario, During the day on Thursday The lake band looks to be mainly over The northern Tug Hill, Northern Oswego, Northern Lewis and into Jefferson counties. Then on Thursday night this band looks to start to drift south heading over the Tug Hill,  Southern Oswego County and northern Oneida county. On friday the lake bands will be impacting area south and east of Lake Ontario in and around the Syracuse areas and area south and east of Lake Ontario This will also be true for the Southern Tier of New York into northwest Pennsylvania. It's too early for precise snowfall amounts. But snow amounts of  6-12+ inches plus are likely for areas that get under the heaviest parts of the snow bands. For places like the Tug Hill and Chautauqua County off of Lake Erie localized snow amounts in excess of 18" are highly likely.

These lake snow bands will not be confined to just areas closer to the lakes. they are going to extend inland. Bringing accumulating snow to areas away from the lakes.

Black Friday winds will remain blustery, 10-25 mph with gust around 40 mph possible. The vast majority of the region should remain dry and cold, There could be a few flurries or snow showers especially over the higher elevations. But the lake effect will be continuing south and east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. High pressure is going to build in briefly for Saturday This will provide nicer conditions But it's still going to be quite chilly. The lake effect off in the lakes should die out. The high pressure moves back out for Sunday, as we watch a system with a warm front approach the region. With the warm front we will see a chance for scattered rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. The cold front will come in later on Sunday bringing more chances for rain showers and snow showers. This cold front will quickly exit the region As high pressure will move back in for Monday. We look to see another big shot of cold come in for Tuesday and Wednesday!

That's it for today I will likely do another post tomorrow But likely for Wednesday and Thursday I won't be posting. 

11/23/2025

 Thanksgiving is quickly approaching!

This is going to be a very quick post That will highlight what's going to occur during the upcoming week.

Here's a look at the surface chart, regional radar and infrared satellite.

We have an area of low pressure just south of James Bay, dragging a leading warm front and a trailing cold  front across the region. This is a weak clipper, that will bring a few rain showers and snow showers across New York State into New England. The unsettled conditions are going to continue tonight into tomorrow morning.  Snow accumulations across northern New York State and northern New England will likely be a trace to as much as 3 inches in spots, this will be a especially true in the higher elevations.  The rest of the region shouldn't see much to anything.

Monday is going to be  generally decent but winds will be becoming breezy. On Monday into Tuesday we will be watching a system currently sitting over the southwest US track into the Midwest along with a disturbance up in Canada work their way our way. These are gonna keep Tuesday into Thursday unsettled with warming temperatures and most of the region seeing rain showers and a few higher elevation snow showers. For the region away from the Great Lakes This shouldn't have any major impacts. But as this system is departing, we are going to see cold air and breezy winds move in behind it.

For Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday!

We're going to have an area of low pressure exiting the Great Lakes heading towards Quebec This will be dragging a strong cold front across the region for Wednesday night with a lot of cold air behind it.   High pressure will be building in behind the system as it departs. This will keep the region cold heading through the weekend, with the vast majority of the region  seeing generally  good conditions.  But there could be a few isolated rain showers or flurries. But for those closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario the scenario is going to be completely different.

For the lower Great Lakes.

The winds right now look like they will be coming out of the southwest and west. So, This means, lake effect will be falling east and north east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. The snow should stay in this orientation during the day on Thursday, During thanksgiving the bands will probably be a little bit disorganized. So we could have one band off of Lake Erie up over the Niagara frontier, and another one South of Buffalo. For lake Ontario It looks like the bands on Thursday will be up over Oswego, northern/central Lewis, Jefferson into Saint Lawrence counties. Then Thursday evening/Thursday night, the lake bands are going to shift south and end up on a southeast orientation, During the night these bands should intensify, It is likely that the National Weather Service is going to issue lake effect snow squall warnings for Thursday night.. Thursday night driving will likely be very treacherous and near impossible. For those under the most intense bands on Thursday night significant snowfall is looking likely. Then for Black Friday the lake snows should be down south and east of the lakes into central New York and South of buffalo into the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and northwest Pennsylvania. On Saturday the lake effect will be continuing but as we get into Saturday morning/afternoon the snow should be diminishing.

Through the weekend into next week it's going to remain cold with a series of shortwave troughs moving across the region keeping things a bit unsettled.

11/21/2025

 Fairly nice right now. But changes are on the way!

Current surface chart and regional radar.

We have high part pressure starting to give way to the system approaching from the west. Temperatures are fairly mild for this time of year. The winds will be increasing as we move through the afternoon. Most of the region is dry but cloudy. But we do have a few rain showers and snow showers up over northern Maine Associated with the system passing to our north ahead of that approaching cold front triple point. (That area where all the different fronts converge).

That weak moisture starved cold front is going to continue to advance across the region. Bringing a few rain showers and higher elevational snow showers moving west to east across most of New York State and much of New England.  Those closer to the southern part of the disturbance will see more in the way of rain showers across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and into part of Southeast New York State,  Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Reaching the Middle Atlantic into southern New England tonight into Saturday morning. General rainfall amounts range from quarter to half an inch, With some areas that could see higher amount That could approach an  inch. The rain from the southern system will be fairly widespread and could be moderate at times. Rain should be departing the region by late morning early afternoon.

In the IR satellite image we can clearly see that disturbance in the southern sub tropical jet stream.  below this, the water vapor image shows that there is limited interaction (phasing) between the disturbance in the subtropical jet and the disturbance that's in the polar jet stream. This is why most of the rain is over the southern half of our region. The lack of phasing kept this as a much weaker storm.

On Sunday A warm front will be lifting through the region. Most of the Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers Will be over the northern parts of our region the closer to the Canadian border you are the more likely you are to see this rain and snow. For Monday high pressure will be building in providing a fairly tranquil day and mostly dry conditions But there could be a few higher elevation snow showers Over those northern areas. Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be very unsettled. Tuesday we will see rain and higher elevation  snow showers move across the region On Wednesday as a system moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada we will see rain and elevational snow showers moving across the region. Temperatures will be mild enough that most of us will see just rain. Rain looks to be widespread and will be locally moderate to heavy at times. Winds on Wednesday will also be very gusty. These winds will continue into Thanksgiving as well. The system will be pulling away on Thursday, for most of us Thanksgiving Day shouldn't be too bad, but  later in the afternoon we're going to likely be seeing  lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on the back side of the departing system. These snow bands could end up being fairly strong. Those living in these areas or those traveling to or from areas near the Great Lakes will want to keep this in mind. Black Friday will be chilly but it looks to be mainly dry and breezy, lake effect will likely be continuing downwind of the Great Lakes. Temperatures will continue to drop heading into the weekend and beyond.

For at least the 1st half of December the pattern is looking increasingly likely to be very blocky, volatile and active. With the cold air looking likely to be in place the potential is there for quite a bit of snow. I guess we will see!

11/20/2025

 Today is nice and dry. But tomorrow the pattern starts to be active once again!

Current surface chart regional radar and national IR satellite.

High pressure is sitting over the region resulting in a day with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds are light generally running 0-5 miles per hour. After a very cool start  temperatures are warming up under this November sun providing temperatures that are slightly below average. The regional radar is showing the entire region is generally rain free, with only a slight chance for an isolated rain shower or flurry. We have a split flow over the United States. This is the reason the cold air is up over Canada. On the IR satellite we can see the disturbance in the northern polar stream and the other disturbance in the southern subtropical stream. 

The southern disturbance over the Tennessee river valley,  is going to continue to track north and east, interacting with the disturbance to its north. We're going to have a warm front Lift through the region Later today into friday morning, a light southern flow will allow temperatures to warm up. Then a weak cold front will be working across the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. As the cold air tries to bleed in from the north the moisture from the southern disturbance that is going to be heading towards the Middle Atlantic region; will try to produce snow showers. But our temperatures are going to be mild enough that outside of northern Maine where a light accumulation of a dusting to maybe a few spots where a couple inches might be possible, the rest of the region should see just plain rain out of this. This front is going to be moisture starved with most of the limited moisture out of it staying up over Canada. So any rain will be very spotty and lite. Friday night into Saturday the rain will be tracking generally south and east, with any precipitation exiting the region late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. We're going to have high pressure building in for later Saturday and Sunday.  Sunday into Monday The high pressure should generally still be in charge. But we will have a shortwave trough up in Canada that could get close enough  possibly bringing a bit of snow over far northern New York State and northern New England. The closer to the border you are the better your chance of seeing some snow. Over New York State and northern into central New England There will be a  chance for a few rain showers  and higher elevation snow showers. The rest of the region should stay dry. Tuesday is looking like high pressure will briefly set up. But it will be tracking out of the region for Wednesday

I've been talking about the possibility of a storm moving through before thanksgiving. I've been going back and forth about the possibilities of snow with this. That's because I've been paying more attention to the models than I should have. But now I'm basically going back to my original premise where we will have the two disturbances moving west to east across the United States. The leading disturbance should track over the Great Lakes or the western half of Pennsylvania and New York State. This is going to keep most of that cold air Locked up in Canada. We're going to see a cold front move across the region on Wednesday. As the cold front slides across the region we will probably see low pressure developing near or over Maryland , Delaware Into  the Delmarvia.. This will help enhance rainfall. At least right now, the vast majority of the region should see just rain out of this. But those higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could end up with a snow, sleet, freezing rain mix. Thanksgiving Thursday should see high pressure move in and set up providing a fairly nice day, with seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions. I don't expect this to have big implications on Pre-Thanksgiving day travel.

As I've been saying for quite some time, past Thanksgiving the pattern is going to cool off a lot from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. As we move into December the cold air is going to continue to stream into the Northeast, With temperatures steadily becoming much much colder. With the  cold we could see a storm impact our region as early as next weekend. The setup that is evolving has Low pressure off the coast The Carolinas and Georgia. From here the storm could track out to sea or it could ride up the coast. This far out we're just talking about potential. But if this does end up tracking up the coast with all that cold air in place It could end up being a regional snowstorm. The pattern looks to stay very active in the northern and southern jet streams. With this in mind December could end up very snowy. I'm not trying to alarm anyone Just trying to talk about the potential moving forward into December.

That's it for today. I want to thank all y'all for following me. I tried to keep you informed with the data and information that I have, without all the hype and scare tactics you get from many other sites on social media. Weather is very complex but I try to break it down Into an easy to read format that doesn't lose a lot of the science behind it. To produce this product for y'all It takes a couple of hours of prep work, That's time I have to pull from other spots in my life, that are equally important and busy. For that reason I really need your help in trying to grow this blog page. The old northeast weather page Had over 15,000 followers, but the weather group that you are mostly getting the link for my post from only has around 1,000-1,500 that are following it, However there's only a small fraction of 5-10 percent... Who view, like or comment on anything that I post! .I really need this to change. I not only want to grow the weather group I  also want to see a lot more people  viewing the blog. Besides my weather post There are also several pages on the blog that have a lot of weather data available at your fingertips. All I ask is that all y'all pass the word on And campaign a little about all of this, if you like what I'm doing and what you see. I like to think the blog has a lot of bang for the buck And is one of the best weather sites on social media. And it's also all free many times to get this kind of information You have to pay to see it. Anyway thank you for following my post You are all very important and valuable to me!

11/19/2025

 System departs leaving nice weather in its wake!

November has been rather coolish across the region. The 1st week to 10 days saw generally seasonal temperatures, Some days were a bit warmer other days were a bit cooler. But overall temperatures across the region averaging out to near average during that time. The rest of the month has generally been cooler.  Our month to date temperatures across Pennsylvania, New York State and New England are running around 1-3 °F below average. But there have been pockets across northern Maine as well as parts of Southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware into southern New Jersey  have been running slightly above average overall. With all the coolness several areas across the region have seen winter start "early" With many parts of New York State into New England having seen snow accumulation earlier than the last few winters.

Image credit Prism group, Oregon state university.

Getting into today and the rest of this week. Let's take a look at the surface chart ,regional radar and latest satellite image

The surface chart shows low pressure to our south is exiting to the east as high pressure approaches and is building into the region. The system that's departing for the most part kept the precipitation over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey But a little bit of it did sneak into Southern Connecticut. There was a light accumulation of snow in the Poconos and up into northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey. Accumulations were generally a dusting to an inch as expected. I have heard  southwest Connecticut also saw some snowflakes but I can't verify that. The region has a mixture of sun and clouds with temperatures a bit warmer than they were yesterday. Lighter winds generally 2 to 8 miles an hour with a few higher gust; are making the feel like temperature much nicer than the last couple of days. Generally temperatures are still running slightly below average today the lack of wind makes it feel great! The lighter winds are going to lead to another cold night across much of the region. The high pressure is going to be sitting overhead tomorrow providing another tranquil day.

On the IR satellite We can see that little disturbance moving across the northern plains heading into the Midwest. This is going to be our weather maker for Friday as the high pressure slips to the east and  a weak cold front approaches the region. Ahead of the cold front we will see a light southerly wind, which will allow temperatures to warm up a little bit. The actual cold front will slide through later Friday into Saturday. For the vast majority of the region this will bring scattered spotty rain showers. But across northern into northwestern Maine a light accumulation of a dusting to a couple of inches will be possible. The cold front is going to quickly depart allowing high pressure to build in for Saturday night and Sunday. The high pressure looks to remain overhead for Monday into Tuesday morning. During that time Conditions across the region should be quite nice and dry.  For Wednesday an area low pressure will approach along with a disturbance in the southern subtropical stream.  Yesterday I had thought precipitation would remain south of New York State and New England. But now these two interact just enough that along with the Middle Atlantic, rain showers and higher elevation snow showers across New York State and New England are possible, I can't rule out a little accumulating lower elevation snow across parts of northern New York State and northern New England, Unless the timing changes this looks to be out of here for Thanksgiving day.

As I've been saying for the last several days once we get past Thanksgiving, the arctic gates look to open up ushering in much colder air into the eastern half of the United States; as the western ridge builds and true arctic air drops into the Plains and then East Coast. But if you been following me, It won't be a surprise that you'll have to break out the winter coats.

11/18/2025

 A very chilly day!

A look at the surface chart and regional radar

GOES I/R image

Today is breezy but winds aren't as gusty as they were yesterday. Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph Generally winds across the region are running 5-15 mph with some gust upwards of 20-25 mph. Up over Maine the winds could be a little stronger as they are closer to that upper level low setting over the Canadian Maritimes. The region is quite chilly with temperatures running slightly below average for this time of year. On the surface chart, we can see we have high pressure that's controlling our weather for today. But the surface chart also shows that low pressure system approaching from the west. Along and ahead of the attached warm front we have rain showers and snow showers moving across western and central Pennsylvania.  The wind should be backing off this evening into tonight.

Image credit Penn state e -wall

That area of low pressure that is in the Midwest will continue to move east heading towards the Delmarvia Peninsula. The rain and snow showers will continue to move east today into tomorrow morning. These rain and snow showers should generally stay confined to Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware into southern New Jersey. There could be a little bit of  snow accumulation for those areas up around 2,000' and above. So a dusting to around  an inch of snow is possible for parts of the Poconos and those higher elevations into northwest New Jersey. There is a chance that isolated rain showers out of this reach far southern New York State into New York City and Long Island. 

The rain will be pushing off-shore late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, as high pressure Approaches and moves in. The high pressure will stick around for Thursday Most of Wednesday and Thursday should be tranquil and a bit milder. As we approach Friday we will see low pressure approaching out of the Great Lakes. The attached cold front is going to slide across the region Friday into Saturday. With the cold front we will see scattered rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. During the day on Saturday this cold front is going to slow and end up stalling, as high pressure approaches and builds in behind it, conditions will quickly improve. High pressure will be sticking around for Sunday providing a chilly but fairly nice and tranquil day. The high pressure will be starting to give way and head east on Monday. Then for Monday night and Tuesday, we will see an area of low pressure moving across Canada that's going to drag a cold front across the Northeast, bringing back a chance for rain showers and higher elevation snow showers.

If you read my post on the pattern; You know that I said as we close out November and go into December we're going to be cooling off, As we start to see a significant pattern change. To get there, we have to go through a storm. Monday into Tuesday we look to have an area of low pressures over Texas. This looks to move into the Midwest on Wednesday, likely bringing snow to the Upper Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Then on Thursday the storm should be affecting the eastern United States. The storm could be fairly strong over the Plains. But as it approaches the East Coast it should be quickly weakening. There is a chance for some rain over Pennsylvania especially eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic for Thanksgiving. Right now I think the rest of the region should be dry. Behind this We will start to see much colder air moving into the region. This is still an evolving situation So we'll see if and how the setup changes. I encourage y'all to read the post on the pattern If you wanna see why all this is going to happen.

Drought conditions

With the rain of late Most of the region continue to see improving drought conditions. But across northern Aroostook County in Maine the conditions did  a backslide. The drought monitor released on November 13 showed 8% of the Northeast was in extreme drought, with 12% in Severe drought, 31% in moderate drought and 32% experiencing abnormally dry conditions. This compares to 10%, 13%, 31% and 31% respectively from the week before.

11/17/2025

 Chilly with a few rain, snow showers. Along with some lake effect falling downwind of the lakes

I hope all y'all read the post and the pattern I put up yesterday. It goes into some detail explaining the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. But the post highlights the need for the boys and girls to buckle up their seat belts and prepare for an interesting ride.

Here's a look of the surface chart and radar along with infrared satellite.

The low pressure that went through yesterday is sitting near Maine and heading towards Nova Scotia. We also have high pressure approaching from the west. In between these two features, we have several troughs that are moving across the region. Between the low pressure and the high pressure we do have a fairly tight pressure gradient. This is causing gusty west-northwest winds across the region. Winds over Maine into New Hampshire could gust to 30-45 miles an hour with some higher gust possible. Those further south and west could see winds gust upwards of 35 miles an hour.

There is lingering snow behind the departing system with  generally a dusting to a inch or so is possible across northern New England, this morning into the early afternoon. with the snow lingering in the higher elevations into tomorrow morning. The higher summits of the Adirondacks, Greens into the Whites could see another 4-8 plus inches of snow through tonight. Parts of the Poconos and Catskills could also pick up a dusting to close to an inch. We can also see the wind moving over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is kicking off lake effect snow showers. Most of the areas over New York State into Pennsylvania that are seeing snow could pick up another dusting to an inch or so today. But those under the more persistent and heavier bands could see 3-8 inches of additional accumulation into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow winds will be a bit lighter but they will still be gusty. The lake effect is going to continue through tomorrow morning but as we get closer to noon time into the early afternoon the lake effect should be dwindling and dying out.

For Wednesday and Thursday Temperature temperatures will be turning milder. On the I/R satellite we can see that  disturbance out over the Rockies exiting into the Plains. This will be working our way and move to the south towards the Delmarvia Peninsula for Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. New York state  and new England should remain mostly dry For Wednesday But over  Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic And perhaps for New York City and Long Island there could be a few  rain showers. This will be a fast moving system So rainfall accumulation shouldn't be too high. Temperatures will be moderately supportive for some sleet/snow. But any snow will likely be mixing in with rain. There could be a little  accumulation over the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey into the Poconos and Catskills. The system should be pulling away during early afternoon into mid afternoon, leading to improving conditions.

Thursday we'll see a weak shortwave move through. There could be a few very isolated showers. But the vast majority of us should stay dry. Friday we will be having a system approach with a leading warm front that will lift through the region. Then we will have a trailing cold front move through. For most of us this will be rain But the higher elevations across northern New York State into northern New England could end up with a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow.  The cold front looks to stall close to the Mason Dixon line on Saturday. So  on Saturday other than a chance for a few showers over southern Pennsylvania with a better chance for isolated to scattered showers over Maryland and Delaware. The rest of the region should stay dry. Across the entire region Saturday will be chilly. For Sunday High pressure will be approaching and setting up. Temperatures will remain seasonally chilly. Outside of a chance for a few snow showers up over northern Maine The region should remain dry for Sunday. The high pressure looks to stay overhead for Monday providing chilly but tranquil conditions across the region.

The pattern

 A look at the pattern as we close out November and going through December.

November here in the eastern half of the United States started out very chilly, While at the same time it started out very warm out west. In the winter outlook I said winter would likely start early this year, So far  that has certainly been the case as we have been dealing with abnormally cold temperatures and many of us have seen snow start earlier this year than the last several years.

Let's take a look at the current pattern signals.

Global sea surface temperatures

Image credit tropical tidbits

The El Nino Southern Oscillation

The latest SST observation indicate that we're definitely in a weak La Nina in nino regions 3 and 3.4

The Quasi Biannual Oscillation. 

I've been talking about the QBO for the last several weeks and how it being negative is a strong indicator for a cold pattern. 

The Madden Julian Oscillation

The pattern that we're going to be dealing with over this winter The MJO is going to be an important factor when it comes to short-term variability. The MJO is also most likely going to be the main driver of our winter pattern.

The MJO is currently in phase 6 and looks to remain there for a few more days. After that it will move into phase 7 closer to the end of the month. This is going to have implications on the pattern moving forward.

The current Sudden  Stratospheric Warming event. 

This SSW looks to peak over the North Pole around the 28th to  November 30/ December 1 timeframe. This would mean the stretching of the polar vortex could reach the Northeast and Middle Atlantic five to maybe seven days after that. 

So the last couple days of November into the 1st couple days of December could end up being  average to slightly cooler than average. But after that some real cold is going to work into our region. 

As I've been saying, we're in a strong negative (easterly) QBO, This current configuration means there is a good chance for several disruptions of the polar vortex as we move into at least the 1st half of this winter.

But with the negative PNA, this would mean we have a shot at some warming for the end of November at least in the Middle Atlantic. Also, with the MJO moving into phase 7 we could end up seeing those warmer temperatures that are currently in the central part of the country to at least try to move east. I know I have been talking about November ending on a cold note. But the MJO is saying hold your horses and let's not get too premature!

Based on the current teleconnection signals I think we are going to see some warmth as we head towards Thanksgiving and a little bit past that. This would be good news for those who are traveling to see family during Thanksgiving. Then the last 2 or 3 days of November into at least the 1st half of December, We're likely to see a significant pattern change start!

Looking at the graphics from NOAA. They are seeing the same thing and confirming the cold that's on the way as we head into December 

The general December pattern is going to be based on the combined effects of the current La Nina, the Madden Julian Oscillation and the potential for that November sudden stratospheric warming event. 

Based on what looks to be happening once we get past the first 2 to 4 days of December The region should plunge into very cold temperatures. That should be averaging well below average for December. The December pattern is still looking to stay very active. Similar to what we've been seeing. But with the cold air in place and looking to have quite a bit of staying power, means at least for the month of December it will most likely be very snowy. We're likely going to have our first major regional storm before Christmas. Will this mean we're going to have a White Christmas? While we will have to see, I do think the odds of that happening for the vast majority of us is looking fairly good. But I guess time will tell!

As I said in the winter outlook, I think the same general pattern is going to extend into January. based on everything setting up during December into at least the middle of January. I think the region is going to be very surprised with the amount of snow we end up with during that time. The pattern I talked about in the winter outlook, looks to be the one that's evolving and I think snow lovers are going to be happy overall with the way things are gonna go.