11/21/2025

 Fairly nice right now. But changes are on the way!

Current surface chart and regional radar.

We have high part pressure starting to give way to the system approaching from the west. Temperatures are fairly mild for this time of year. The winds will be increasing as we move through the afternoon. Most of the region is dry but cloudy. But we do have a few rain showers and snow showers up over northern Maine Associated with the system passing to our north ahead of that approaching cold front triple point. (That area where all the different fronts converge).

That weak moisture starved cold front is going to continue to advance across the region. Bringing a few rain showers and higher elevational snow showers moving west to east across most of New York State and much of New England.  Those closer to the southern part of the disturbance will see more in the way of rain showers across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and into part of Southeast New York State,  Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Reaching the Middle Atlantic into southern New England tonight into Saturday morning. General rainfall amounts range from quarter to half an inch, With some areas that could see higher amount That could approach an  inch. The rain from the southern system will be fairly widespread and could be moderate at times. Rain should be departing the region by late morning early afternoon.

In the IR satellite image we can clearly see that disturbance in the southern sub tropical jet stream.  below this, the water vapor image shows that there is limited interaction (phasing) between the disturbance in the subtropical jet and the disturbance that's in the polar jet stream. This is why most of the rain is over the southern half of our region. The lack of phasing kept this as a much weaker storm.

On Sunday A warm front will be lifting through the region. Most of the Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers Will be over the northern parts of our region the closer to the Canadian border you are the more likely you are to see this rain and snow. For Monday high pressure will be building in providing a fairly tranquil day and mostly dry conditions But there could be a few higher elevation snow showers Over those northern areas. Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be very unsettled. Tuesday we will see rain and higher elevation  snow showers move across the region On Wednesday as a system moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada we will see rain and elevational snow showers moving across the region. Temperatures will be mild enough that most of us will see just rain. Rain looks to be widespread and will be locally moderate to heavy at times. Winds on Wednesday will also be very gusty. These winds will continue into Thanksgiving as well. The system will be pulling away on Thursday, for most of us Thanksgiving Day shouldn't be too bad, but  later in the afternoon we're going to likely be seeing  lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on the back side of the departing system. These snow bands could end up being fairly strong. Those living in these areas or those traveling to or from areas near the Great Lakes will want to keep this in mind. Black Friday will be chilly but it looks to be mainly dry and breezy, lake effect will likely be continuing downwind of the Great Lakes. Temperatures will continue to drop heading into the weekend and beyond.

For at least the 1st half of December the pattern is looking increasingly likely to be very blocky, volatile and active. With the cold air looking likely to be in place the potential is there for quite a bit of snow. I guess we will see!