The world is melting, The world is melting.... part 4

Welcome to the final installment in my the world is melting the world is melting series.

The other parts went into the details, so I won't retrace that ground.

In Part one of this series, I talked about the claims and predictions that global warming supporters and the main stream media have been saying over the last several decades . I also showed facts that debunk all of that, at least in my opinion (IMO).

Part One

In part two, I talked about what I think is causing the Earth to warm. I used a lot of real data that shows how water vapor and not CO2 is at the heart of what is going on.

part Two

In part three, I showed how  human prosperity across the entire planet has never been better, than it is right now.   I also used the historic record to show how the Earth has had warm ups and cool downs over the millennia.  The data showed that humankind always gains affluence and sees abundance during the warm periods; but sees scarcity, hardship and abject poverty during the cool downs.

Part Three

In part four, I will sum things up:

Part four:

My Mother, has told me how the climate change discussion back in the 60's and 70's was all about global cooling, and concern we were all heading into an ice age.  The culprit back then was  industrial pollutants, vehicular emissions, coal combustion emissions, and other such human caused possesses  causing smog.

Here is a News Week article from 1975 that shows what the media back then was abuzz with.

 

 

But to be fair, many scientist of the time we're talking about a warming globe.

 

During the 1980's the media attention switched to global warming; again the guilty party was humankind and our machines and technology .  The initiative didn't change, only the temperature was going up instead of down.

During the 1990's the phrase coined became climate change. But calling it climate change, the scope of everything went well beyond just a warming planet.

We are told, that human caused global warming/climate change is a scientific fact.  But it really isn't.  Instead it's a theory.  Scientist have many tools available they use to try to describe how things work.  In common usage, the words hypothesis, model, law, theory, and fact have different interpretations and many times aren't use all that accurately. But when it comes to science these words have exact meanings.  

My Father was a huge fan of Star Trek. I remember, watching an episode with him ( I think it was the original Star Trek). Anyway, the captain was being court marshaled. During the show, in response to a lawyers question, Mr. Spock, said something like "If I let go of a hammer, I need not see it fall to know that it has in fact fallen."

Fact, when you drop a hammer, it falls to the ground (or your foot).  A fact is an observation that has been confirmed time after time. So many times, that for all intent and purpose it is accepted as true. But science leaves the door always open, because there is a chance that the hammer might not always fall.

Example of a hypothesis, a hammer fell to the ground because an unseen force is pulling it down.

Example of a law, all objects attract each other with a force of gravitational attraction. Gravity is universal. This force of gravitational attraction is directly dependent upon the masses of both objects and inversely proportional to the square of the distance which separates their centers. This is the law of gravity.  Using another law, Newton's Law Of Gravity, we can calculate the gravitational force between the Earth and the Hammer, which would let us calculate the hammers acceleration as it falls, calculate the force it would exert when it hit the ground, and how much force it would take to pick the hammer back up, etc.

A theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural universe we live in that's well-substantiated by facts, tested hypotheses, and laws.

Example of a theory, the laws of physics are the same everywhere. Because of this the behavior of all objects in space and time are affected , so Mass and energy cause space/time to curve and warp, and the force of gravity arises from the curvature of space/time. This is  Albert Einstein's famous theory of relativity. The idea that space and time were fluid, upended centuries of the scientific idea space and time were fixed and unmovable.

So the general idea this theory is talking about, is that gravity is the result of a curving or warping of space, instead of an invisible force that attracts objects  to one another.  The more massive the object the more it warps the space around it. In the case of our original hypothesis, the hammer isn't being pulled down by an invisible force, it is being affected by the warping and curvature of space/time, due to the difference in mass between the hammer and the Earth.

An example on a larger scale, the sun is massive enough to warp space across our entire solar system...a bit like if our hammer fell to rest on a rubber sheet visibly alters (warps) the shape of the sheet. As a result the Earth and the other planets move in curved paths (orbits) about the sun.  

The concept of gravity is undoubtedly much more complex than what Einstein's purposes, so at some point we will have to move beyond the theory of relativity to a more comprehensive theory that explains the things that the theory of relativity can't explain.

But at this time, Einstein's theory is best description of how gravity works.  

Mr. Einstein actually has two theories of relativity. One is the theory of general relativity, the other is the theory of special relativity. The subject matter of both of these theories goes beyond the scope this post wants to cover. But If y'all want, I can make a separate post sometime that deals with both theories of relativity.

I've sidetracked myself and all of y'all long enough....back to global climate change.

Climate change/global warming is a very hot button topic. There is so much noise surrounding the debate, that it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees.  In this multipart series, I've tried to show the science and major facts behind the current climate debate, as I understand them. I'm a meteorologist not a climatologist; but that doesn't mean I don't have a good grasp of the subject of climate. changeability

The 2019 hurricane season started out very slowly. There wasn't a lot of talk in the media about global warming until hurricane Dorian; since then the global warming alarm has been ringing nonstop.  To me it seems the climate change alarmist, strike when the iron is hot; When a hurricane is having a major impact, we hear about how human caused climate change is the cause for it. When we have a major tornado outbreak, again the cause is human caused climate change.  Major flooding like that caused by Harvey, Florence, and now Imelda is caused by...you got it,  human caused climate change.  They say, hurricane Dorian stalling over the Bahamas was a result of climate change.  We always seem to hear about all the record breaking heat....but never really hear anything about, where there is record cold.

On September 20th, over a million school children, were allowed to miss school, in order to demonstrate and show support on the issue of global warming/climate change.  For me personally I find it more troubling that the schools encouraged the walk out, and that many in government (like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders) and the media supported the idea of the school walkout, than I do about the subject of global warming / climate change.  The so called climate strike was backed by more than 100 environmental and political activist groups and other institutions. IMO it is virtually child abuse, to use seven and eight year old children, as pawns in a complex issue like this. But, that is my option, y'all can have a different option and that is fine. I think one of the biggest obstacles in the climate change debate is the apparent inability to listen to other peoples options.        

Earth's climate is extremely complex. It's effected by solar output,  our orbit, atmospheric gases, volcanoes, as well as a multitude of teleconnections and other atmospheric drivers. 

The planet's climate has constantly been changing over geological time. The global average temperature today is about 15C. in the previous parts I showed how it has been much warmer and much colder in the past. The claim is that our current warming period, is advancing more rapidly than many past events. The climate change supporters are concerned that the natural fluctuation in our climate is being overtaken by a rapid human induced warming element that has serious implications for the stability of our climate oscillation ebb and flow. 

But weather isn't climate. This is the most important thing I want all y'all to take away from all of this.  Humankind hasn't been keeping any kind of real temperature records for very long.   The United States has been keeping records going back to around 1875; while Europe has been keeping temperature records a bit longer going back to around 1850. So our observations and real records only go back a short distance in time. Before the modern historic record, it is mostly guesses as to what was really going on. If those guesses are input into the climate models, if the guesses are wrong, the end result will be something far from reality..... garbage in garbage out.  Over the last several years, the data has been adjusted to better fit the theory of what is going on. Instead of adjusting the models and thinking to what the data is saying. IMO, this makes the water so murky, no one could see the answer if they tried.  As facts change the theory evolves, not the other way around.   

Climate change is an extremely complex subject.  But we can't let emotions and fear tactics to drive the dynamics. We need to let science and reason control the narrative. 

In parts one, two, and three, I said there is no doubt that the globe is warming. I just disagree with those who support the idea that the sole reason is it's  human caused.  But that doesn't mean, I don't support efforts to reduce the influence humankind has over the Earth's Climate.

The idea that we know all the reasons the Earth is warming, is beyond arrogance into the absurd. We need time for real science to figure out what's going on , and what we can do to slow it down. But If I'm right that the vast majority of the current warming is due to natural reasons...there isn't much we can do about it.

That's about it, hope you enjoyed it....and can see my side of this climate change debate. 


   

2019 Fall overview

This Fall overview will cover October 1 through December 1 .

The fall equinox was Monday, I've been fielding several questions about what the weather will be like for the next couple of months.  So I wanted to post a little detail on what I think is going to happen.

Autumn is a transition period between the heat and humidity of Summer and the cold and snow of Winter. The plant growth is slowing way down. And the leaves are changing their colors here in Northern New York State, on the Tug Hill. I won't have all the charts and model runs I sometimes post for these outlook. Instead this one will be straight to the point, I have found too much information confuses some of y'all.

But I want to say something that is important. As with all my seasonal outlooks, this one will be about the overall average for the entire region. So there will be times when it's warm and other times when it's cool. A regional seasonal outlook isn't a local forecast. it is a guide that shows what I think, the conditions for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will be like.

Despite the overall fall like temperatures of late, Summer isn't ready to give up just yet.

The pattern is going to generally be overall warm into end of October and starting November.  Temperatures should be above average,  most likely averaging generally + 1 °F to +2 °F above average.  Southeast Pennsylvania into the Mid Atlantic Region could see +2 °F close to +3 °F above average.

As far as precipitation. Not counting any tropical moisture we could see.....overall precipitation is looking to be right around average for this time of year, with those along the coast having a chance for slightly above average rainfall.  

The general storm pattern looks to see systems moving across southern Canada. This should allow for a changeable setup, with troughs and ridges moving in and then moving out. We also could see a few nor'easters during the 2nd half of October into November.

The interior New York into western and central Pennsylvania will be slightly warm. New England and the Mid Atlantic Region will be a bit warmer overall.

late October and into November. eastern Pennsylvania, New England, into the Mid Atlantic will be seeing the pattern cooling, with a greater chance of seeing wetter conditions.

With the general overall warmth, snowfall shouldn't be a big issue. but there could be a few snow events for end of October and November. So Many of us shouldn't see any white stuff. But northern parts of the region could see accumulating snow end of October  to end of November.

The pattern The first two thirds of this fall will be overall slightly warmer than average, then as we head into the 2nd half of November into December we will transition to a much cooler configuration.   Once we get into the first part of December, the pattern should've switched to the one I talked about in my preliminary 2019-2020 winter outlook,  with general troughing and  cold in the east.

Also remember, the pattern during the Fall is no indication of the winter pattern. 

If you what to read my thoughts on the upcoming winter you can find it here.

My 2019-2020 preliminary winter outlook.

My preliminary look at winter 2019 2020

Howdy,  Here are my first thoughts on what we can expect from the white stuff for winter 2019-2020.

Many have asked what do I expect to happen this winter? This is an overview, but still it is fairly detailed. As Always, I try to keep things in plain speak, and avoid the real technical side of all of this.

Anyway, let's get into all of this.

 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

SSTs, as in all weather patterns will play a big role in how winter 2019-2020 turns out.  Here is a chart showing the current SST anomalies, compared to above average and below average temperatures. 

Teleconnections:

 The El Nino Southern Oscillation:

In the Pacific, when we have cooler than average SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific we're in a La Nina, when we have  warmer than average SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific we're in a El Nino. Right now,  eastern equatorial Pacific are somewhat cool, but not enough to be called a La Nina; so we're in a neutral setup.  We can also see all those warm SSTs in the Northeast Pacific, this involves other teleconnections ..... But remember the ENSO isn't the only thing determining what will happen.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Some of the models dealing with the SOI are strongly hinting at a ENSO  cool  neutral phase and have been flirting with La Nina territory. But it will most likely be a warm neutral to very weak El Nino.  

Here is a look at the  IRC/CPC plume.

 The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

Is in a weakening west to east phase. Some are concerned that this is a prelude to the easterly QBO is going to fail, like it did in 2016.  But I don't think that will be the case.  This is most likely because the QBO has stalled or possibly reversed during September.  When looking at past data, a stall like this is fairly common. So this is more than likely just a temporary event.  I don't see the easterly QBO falling apart for the winter of 2019-2020.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

Like the ENSO, the PDO has a warm and a cool phase.  When the SST anomalies are cool along the Pacific West Coast into the Gulf of Alaska and warm across the interior North Pacific, the PDO is considered in a negative (cool) phase.  When the SST anomalies are warm along the Pacific West Coast into the Gulf of Alaska and cool across the interior North Pacific, the PDO is considered in a positive (warm) phase.  winter 2019-2020 will consist of a warm PDO.

If the ENSO and the PDO are in the same phase, the impacts typically associated with the ENSO are intensified. Likewise if they are in opposite phases the impacts of the ENSO are diminished. When the two are out of phase with each other they tend to offset each other to an extent.  

Warm blob in the Gulf of Alaska and off the Pacific Northwest combined with the cool eastern Pacific in ENSO region 1+2 and extending into region 3, typically equates to cold winter pattern in the east.  This SST setup in the Pacific,  should allow for ridging in the Western CONUS with a trough east of the Rockies.  We most likely will see ridging off the East Coast in the North Atlantic.

The polar jet should dip south into the Northern Great Plains, South of the Ohio Valley, over to North Carolina and then move off Mid Atlantic and New England Coast.

Like the Pacific, the Atlantic has to be taken into consideration as well.  

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are warm.

For the last 18 to 24 months the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has been negative.  But over the last 6 to 8 weeks the AMO has been positive. This is one of the major reasons the Tropical Atlantic has been so active the last few weeks. Typically when the AMO flips to a negative or positive phase it will generally stay in that phase for 15-30 years.  The flip of late to positive, has caught me by surprise (and has placed my Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in jeopardy). I will have to keep a close eye on the AMO as we move closer to winter, as it will have a big impact on how things turn out.   

The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):

For August, the AO and NAO have been negative. Then it went positive for the first part of September. Since then it has gone back to negative. The current pattern would line up with the idea of an overall Negative NAO during winter 2019-2020. If this is the case, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic would have a greater likelihood of cold air intrusions. If we see an overall Negative NAO, it would help amplify the cold air over the Northeast.

We have a warm blob near Greenland. This should help reinforce a ridge in the North Atlantic. Helping to setup a tendency for more blocking near Greenland, than we saw last winter.   

A little on some of the models:

The models are showing and forecasting a warm neutral winter...... Of all the models the GMAO seems to have the best handle on the ENSO, and is definitely an outlier .  It is the only one showing a cooler look....while the full blown La Nina it's showing is unlikely....I do like the fact that it is showing a cooler look.

The JAMTEC is showing a lot of coolness in the East and a lot of warmth in the West

The CFS is showing a blowtorch. But this is nothing new, for the CFS couldn't find cold if it tried.  

Looking back at past winters, we've seen similar SST anomalies; the most recent was 2013-2014 

Analogs:

1857-1858, 1969-1970, 1977-1978 double weighted, 1980-1981, 2005-2006, 2013-2014 triple weighted, 2014-2015, 2018-2019.

Early season snowfall:  

 As has been the case in recent years in North America we're seeing early season snowfall.

Looking back as far as 1998, only 2002 and 2010 had more snow cover at this time of the year. So we're doing very well as far as snow.   

GFS image from WeatherBell

This and that:

When I looked at the 10hpa zonal winds over the North Pole; they were a bit weaker than average for early Autumn. This means the Polar Vortex (PV) is more disorganized than is typical. If this continues, we could be more prone to arctic air invading or region.

Solar activity is at very low levels, with no visible sunspots. The GWV Solar Activity tracker confirms that we're at solar minimum. This is another good  signal that we could be prone to some cold outbreaks this winter.

The Verdict:

One thing I want to make clear.  The temperature and snowfall outlooks are based on an overall average for the entire region. That means there will be warmth at times and cold at other times.  Storms will miss some areas and lambaste other areas.  Every season has winners and losers.  A seasonal outlook isn't designed to be a local forecast; it is a guide that shows what the overall Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will likely experience.  

Also my snowfall outlook is based on first to last snowflake.

Regional Outlook:

This winter most likely will be a hybrid El Nino...

The polar jet might be a bit farther south than is typical of a neutral ENSO.

Clippers and Gulf Lows should track into the Northeast this winter.   The Subtropical Jet should mind its manners. This would mean we would be less prone to big Nor'easters. But if the timing was right, we could see a few phases between the polar jet and the subtropical jet. The Nor'easters we do see, should be of the Miller B variety... Link to my post on Northeasters and storm types.....      

 Temperature Overview:

Like last September, September 2019 started a bit cooler, then the rest of the Month has been warm.  

The Southeast ridge with the warmth, is going to surge northward from time to time during October. So as has been the trend the last few years, the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region will be battling early season warmth.

Overall, temperatures will be below average. This year the bulk of the cold looks like it will be centered in the upper Midwest, Midwest, and around the Great Lakes.

Western and Northern New York State as well as Western Pennsylvania (this could end up extending into Virginia and part of North Carolina as well)  will be much colder than average, averaging out around 3-4 degrees below average, with the rest of us slightly below average to below average , overall they look to be around 1-2 degrees below average.

Snowfall/Winter Precipitation:

Interior Northeast, back into the Ohio Valley, West Virginia, and western Virginia will be the bulls eye for snowfall

The snow belts off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario should do very well this winter.

Winter Precipitation Overview:

Dec -Feb

The Middle Atlantic (Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Central and Southern New Jersey will be above average. much of the rest of Pennsylvania,  Southeast New York State (including the Catskills and Hudson Valley, Southern New England, Southern Vermont, much of New Hampshire and Southern Maine, will see slightly above average, with Northeast Pennsylvania, the rest of New York State and Northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern Maine will end up seeing around average Winter Precipitation.

Snowfall Overview:

 Most of our region will see 25% to 50% above average. So whatever your annual average snowfall is you would add 25% to 50% to it.

 Here is a better break down....

You take your average yearly snowfall * the percentage  = add that to your yearly snowfall. This will equal your new adjusted snowfall amount from this outlook.

 That about covers things.  But it is only the end of September so there is plenty of time for things to change.  So some if not several variables could change before I release my final outlook. The final outlook will most likely be released around the Middle of November.