I saw an NBC article
Where global warming supporters
made the clam that "a strange, wavy jet stream is blasting Europe with heat. Scientists say
this could be the 'new normal" They use words like profound, unusual,
extreme.
Denise Chow (writer and editor at NBC News) wrote: " An oppressive heat wave baked Western
Europe this week, setting record high temperatures in France, Germany, Poland,
and the Czech Republic. In India, a severe drought has choked water supplies in
the city of Chennai, exposing it's 9 million residents to a major shortage. And
after the United States wettest 12 month stretch on record, towns across the
Midwest and the Great Plains are reeling from devastating floods". She also wrote, " The reasons behind
these extreme weather events are complex, but scientists believe they have a
common trigger: profound recent changes in the set stream, a ribbon of
fast-moving air that flows from west to east over the Northern Hemisphere and
controls weather systems".
These so called extreme weather events find their way into
mainstream and social media all the time. The catch phrase now is climate crisis. Media is talking about Japan seeing its warmest recorded temperature in history of 106°F. How Montreal has seen temperatures approach 100°F. Toronto has seen 18 days that exceeded 30°C, Forest fires in Siberia and Europe are the worst in history, and so on and so on.
The
predictions:
Tornadoes:
The number of tornadoes this year are being blamed on climate
change. But that is simply not
true. Looking at the tornadic trend for
2019 we see it's below 2008 and 2011, both of these years had a lot of cold air
in Canada and northern tier of CONUS during May. For tornado outbreaks to occur the prime
requisite is cold air from the Rockies into the Great Lakes, sitting over warm
air farther to the South .
Tropical cyclones:
In the Pacific Hawaii is going to see a lot of action heading
their way. Again the media, will say its
global warming is the reason. supporters
of global warming will take that and run with it. But again it won't end up being true.
One of the latest global warming idea trends is that tropical
cyclone rapid intensification is caused by global warming. But again that is a gross exaggeration of the
facts and what is really going on.
Back in June of1988 James
E. Hansen from NASA testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources (Hansen is called the father of global warming theory, by many). At
the time there was a prolonged heat wave impacting North America (this was the
first of two devastating heat waves that summer). Hansen showed a multitude of climate model
predictions, and inferred " He had a high degree of confidence, that there
was a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the
observed warming" During his testimony, he said, " The globe would
see a significant warming over the next 25-30 years" He also stated "
the 1990 into the 2000's would see much greater than average warming in the
Southeast US. and in the U.S Midwest" No such spike in temperatures has ever been
measured. Over the ensuing years he talked about how CO2 was
the main culprit, and many more predictions, hurricanes would become increasingly
more powerful, Hurricanes would cause increasing more and more damage in the US,
tornadoes would become stronger, and the biggest one was in 2007 when he said "
the Greenland ice sheet would be completely melted soon, resulting in a rise in
the global oceans of 23 feet". He made dozens of other claims. But looking back at these all of these predictions
show none of them have come true. Over the last few years snow and ice amounts
have been increasing in Greenland, Hurricanes aren't more powerful than the
historic record shows for past hurricanes, Based on the gross domestic product
index, hurricanes aren't causing greater amounts of damage (even though the
coast is becoming more and more developed). Tornadoes are not becoming more
frequent or more powerful than tornadoes of the past. The list of what didn't occur is long and
tedious.
10 years ago, the media
was alight with the talk of perma-drought in California and the Southern Plains into the Midwest. The
climate warming alarmist said perma-drought was here to stay with no end in sight, that human caused climate
change was the reason and that a new dust bowl era had started. But this kind
of talk isn't decades old, as resent as 2015 Katherine Hayhole declared that "permanent
drought was the future of Texas panhandle and that the nations beef would get increasingly
strained". But none of these predictions came true. Just
two to three years after Hayhole's prediction. The same areas that were to have
perma-drought, are now overflowing with water. As for California, in 2014 Gov
Brown, said perma-drought was the new normal for 40 million people who depend
on the Colorado Rivers water" as of the end of June, the upper Colorado
River basin had a snow water equivalent of 425% of average. I would say the
fear of a perma-drought in California has been erased.
Al Gore has made many of
these same claims in his book "An Inconvenient Truth" and in a more
recent movie. It remains to be seen if
any of his claims will become true.
To be fair, there are global warming deniers, who go off the scale on the other side of this debate, but it seems to me that they are outnumbered by the global warming supporters. The current debate is saturated with junk science. We need to get the junk science and politics out of the debate, if we truly want to understand what is going on....
To be fair, there are global warming deniers, who go off the scale on the other side of this debate, but it seems to me that they are outnumbered by the global warming supporters. The current debate is saturated with junk science. We need to get the junk science and politics out of the debate, if we truly want to understand what is going on....
Looking
at some data:
When I was at A&M I
remember been taught that the highest global temperature ever recorded was 136 in
El Azizia, Libya, back in Sept. 13, 1922. But that temperature record was
thrown out in 2012. There have been a
bunch of other very hot temperatures thrown out too. It's hard to refute something if many of the
true facts aren't around anymore.
When we look at the
current global 2-M temperature anomaly
we see it's 0.310 °C above average, With the CONUS 2-M temperature anomaly
0.121°C above average. When we look back
at past decades there were years that saw higher temperature anomalies and
lower temperature anomalies. When we look at the overall temperature pattern
over the last 40+ years there is no doubt that global temperature anomalies are
rising. But clearly the world isn't
burning up (as many in the past have predicted it would be). I mean really, a
2-M global temperature anomaly of 0.310°C isn't a huge difference. There has to
be enough compensating colder areas to keep it close.
Current Maximum daytime
temperature anomalies are 0.97°F above
average
Current minimum nighttime
temperature anomalies are 2.0°F above
average
The temperature anomalies
for the CONUS are well above average. By looking at the daytime and nighttime
anomalies we can clearly see most of the temperature anomaly difference is
because of very warm nighttime lows.
When we look at the
global temperature anomaly map we see the vast majority of the warmth is near
and in the polar regions. whereas the temperate regions (where we and
everything else lives) is a mixture of warm and cool areas, that seem to
balance each other out. So clearly, the heat in the polar regions is a major
reason for the above average global temperature anomaly.
We can see how the poles
react during the northern and southern hemisphere summer season and winter
season.
We see the poles have warm temperature anomalies
during the arctic cold season, but cooler temperature anomalies during their
warm season. What could be the reason for that?
So while I agree that the
global temperatures are gradually increasing. I disagree with the idea from
global warming alarmist as to the cause of the current warming.
The reasons I think the
globe is warming will be covered in part two.
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