The world is melting...the world is melting....Part one.

I saw an NBC article

Where global warming supporters  made the clam that "a strange, wavy jet stream  is blasting Europe with heat. Scientists say this could be the 'new normal" They use words like profound, unusual, extreme.

Here is the link 

Denise Chow (writer and editor at NBC News) wrote:  " An oppressive heat wave baked Western Europe this week, setting record high temperatures in France, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. In India, a severe drought has choked water supplies in the city of Chennai, exposing it's 9 million residents to a major shortage. And after the United States wettest 12 month stretch on record, towns across the Midwest and the Great Plains are reeling from devastating floods".  She also wrote, " The reasons behind these extreme weather events are complex, but scientists believe they have a common trigger: profound recent changes in the set stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air that flows from west to east over the Northern Hemisphere and controls weather systems".

These so called extreme weather events find their way into mainstream and social media all the time. The catch phrase now is climate crisis. Media is talking about Japan seeing its warmest recorded temperature in history of 106°F. How Montreal has seen temperatures approach 100°F. Toronto has seen 18 days that exceeded 30°C, Forest fires in Siberia and Europe are the worst in history, and so on and so on.   

The predictions:

Tornadoes:

The number of tornadoes this year are being blamed on climate change.  But that is simply not true.  Looking at the tornadic trend for 2019 we see it's below 2008 and 2011, both of these years had a lot of cold air in Canada and northern tier of CONUS during May.  For tornado outbreaks to occur the prime requisite is cold air from the Rockies into the Great Lakes, sitting over warm air farther to the South .

 

Above images curtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.

Tropical cyclones:

In the Pacific Hawaii is going to see a lot of action heading their way.  Again the media, will say its global warming is the reason.  supporters of global warming will take that and run with it.  But again it won't end up being true. 

One of the latest global warming idea trends is that tropical cyclone rapid intensification is caused by global warming.  But again that is a gross exaggeration of the facts and what is really going on.

Back in June of1988 James E. Hansen from NASA testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (Hansen is called the father of global warming theory, by many). At the time there was a prolonged heat wave impacting North America (this was the first of two devastating heat waves that summer).  Hansen showed a multitude of climate model predictions, and inferred " He had a high degree of confidence, that there was a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming" During his testimony, he said, " The globe would see a significant warming over the next 25-30 years" He also stated " the 1990 into the 2000's would see much greater than average warming in the Southeast US. and in the U.S Midwest"  No such spike in temperatures has ever been measured. Over the ensuing years he talked about how CO₂   was the main culprit, and many more predictions, hurricanes would become increasingly more powerful, Hurricanes would cause increasing more and more damage in the US, tornadoes would become stronger, and the biggest one was in 2007 when he said " the Greenland ice sheet would be completely melted soon, resulting in a rise in the global oceans of 23 feet". He made dozens of other claims.  But looking back at these all of these predictions show none of them have come true. Over the last few years snow and ice amounts have been increasing in Greenland, Hurricanes aren't more powerful than the historic record shows for past hurricanes, Based on the gross domestic product index, hurricanes aren't causing greater amounts of damage (even though the coast is becoming more and more developed). Tornadoes are not becoming more frequent or more powerful than tornadoes of the past.  The list of what didn't occur is long and tedious.  

10 years ago, the media was alight with the talk of perma-drought in California  and the Southern Plains into the Midwest. The climate warming alarmist said perma-drought was here to stay with no  end in sight, that human caused climate change was the reason and that a new dust bowl era had started. But this kind of talk isn't decades old, as resent as 2015 Katherine Hayhole declared that "permanent drought was the future of Texas panhandle and that the nations beef would get increasingly strained".   But none of these predictions came true. Just two to three years after Hayhole's prediction. The same areas that were to have perma-drought, are now overflowing with water. As for California, in 2014 Gov Brown, said perma-drought was the new normal for 40 million people who depend on the Colorado Rivers water" as of the end of June, the upper Colorado River basin had a snow water equivalent of 425% of average. I would say the fear of a perma-drought in California has been erased.

Al Gore has made many of these same claims in his book "An Inconvenient Truth" and in a more recent movie.  It remains to be seen if any of his claims will become true.

To be fair, there are global warming deniers, who go off the scale on the other side of this debate, but it seems to me that they are outnumbered by the global warming supporters.  The current debate is saturated with junk science. We need to get the junk science and politics out of the debate, if we truly want to understand what is going on....   

 Looking at some data:

 We are only 4 days into the month of July and the reports of all time record heat are flying all over the place.  We hear about record heat in Europe,  Miami, FL has had two almost 100 degree days for the first time ever in a single year. Record breaking heat in Alaska. 

When I was at A&M I remember been taught that the highest global temperature ever recorded was 136 in El Azizia, Libya, back in Sept. 13, 1922. But that temperature record was thrown out in 2012.  There have been a bunch of other very hot temperatures thrown out too.  It's hard to refute something if many of the true facts aren't around anymore.

When we look at the current global  2-M temperature anomaly we see it's 0.310 °C above average, With the CONUS 2-M temperature anomaly 0.121°C above average.  When we look back at past decades there were years that saw higher temperature anomalies and lower temperature anomalies. When we look at the overall temperature pattern over the last 40+ years there is no doubt that global temperature anomalies are rising.  But clearly the world isn't burning up (as many in the past have predicted it would be). I mean really, a 2-M global temperature anomaly of 0.310°C isn't a huge difference. There has to be enough compensating colder areas to keep it close.

 

Above image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

 

Averaging out year to date, finds the eastern half of the CONUS has been cooler than average. This is a change from last year.

Above image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

Current Maximum daytime temperature anomalies are  0.97°F above average

 

Above image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

 

Current minimum nighttime temperature anomalies are  2.0°F above average

Above image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

The temperature anomalies for the CONUS are well above average. By looking at the daytime and nighttime anomalies we can clearly see most of the temperature anomaly difference is because of very warm nighttime lows.

When we look at the global temperature anomaly map we see the vast majority of the warmth is near and in the polar regions. whereas the temperate regions (where we and everything else lives) is a mixture of warm and cool areas, that seem to balance each other out. So clearly, the heat in the polar regions is a major reason for the above average global temperature anomaly.

We can see how the poles react during the northern and southern hemisphere summer season and winter season.

We see the poles have warm temperature anomalies during the arctic cold season, but cooler temperature anomalies during their warm season. What could be the reason for that?

So while I agree that the global temperatures are gradually increasing. I disagree with the idea from global warming alarmist as to the cause of the current warming.

 What could be causing the warming?

The reasons I think the globe is warming will be covered in part two.