A very warm Election Day

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

High pressure is slipping east, allowing a southwest flow to bring in Balmy temperatures for today, so it will be excellent to go and vote.

The surface chart shows the cold front over the Plains moving into the Midwest. As this approaches our region, it is going to be much weaker.

Today will be breezy, ahead of the moisture starved cold front, with rain chances going up for western Pennsylvania this evening, rain will become a little heavier tonight into the overnight, but coverage will be spotty. The rain will make it into western New York State early tomorrow morning, but again coverage will be isolated.  The weak cold front will push across New York State and Pennsylvania tomorrow morning and afternoon, making it into New England and the Middle Atlantic late in the day on Wednesday, again rain will be isolated to widely scattered.  The cooler air coming in behind the front will be slow to make it in, so Wednesday will still be fairly mild. There could be a few lingering showers for eastern parts of the region Thursday morning.

Thursday through Saturday, high pressure overhead will provide more sun and dry conditions, with temperatures cooling off to around seasonal. So, all in all, not all that bad for the first part of November.

Sunday, high pressure will shift off the Coast, which will allow a cold front to approach. This front will move through on Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance for scattered showers; some of these showers could briefly become locally heavy. Then high pressure builds back in for Tuesday and sticking around for a few days.

This back-and-forth temperature pattern is going to be with us for the foreseeable future.  There will be rain chances, but I don’t see any big soaking rain events. So don’t hold your breath looking for drought relief.

 

  Rafael

 

He is continuing to organize, the favorable conditions should allow him to become a hurricane later today, before impacting the Cayman Islands late this evening, and then western Cuba.  Once in the Gulf conditions do become much more hostile, but he should still be a hurricane when he gets into the Gulf on Thursday, he will move over the Gulf Stream, these waters are warm enough, that he could become a Category 2 hurricane, But the higher wind shear, dry air and cooler water north of the stream should weaken him fairly quickly.  So, if he makes it to the northern Gulf Coast, the best he looks to be is a tropical storm. Most of the guidance has him moving toward Louisiana and maybe Texas, but some do turn him west before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.

Between the high pressure in the Atlantic and Rafael to the west, Florida will be quiet windy, for the next couple of days, rain doesn't look to pose a flood threat. The flood threat becomes a bit higher for Georgia into parts of the western Southeast.

A look at the Northeast and Tropics.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

High pressure is starting to push east.

As the ridge sets up over head, we will see a mix of clouds and sun, with seasonal temperatures. As a warm front lifts into the region, there will be a risk for a few rain showers, but most of us should be dry. There will be a chance for a few snow showers over the higher elevations in the northern part of the region, but any accumulations will be very light. Later today and tonight, a southern flow, will allow temperatures to start climbing. So tonight, won’t near as chilly as last night, with any snow showers turning back to rain.

For Election Day Tuesday, the front will start to push into Canada, there will be the risk for some rain showers for those closer to the Canadian Border, with most of the rest of the region staying dry. Tomorrow the southwest winds will be stronger with gust of 30-35 mph possible, which will drive temperatures back to well above average for the first part of November.

Wednesday a weak moisture starved cold front will slowly move into the region, bringing the risk for isolated showers. Winds will continue to be breezy with most of the region stay very warm. With the frontal passage, cooler air will work back into the region.  Thursday, the front will continue to push south across the region. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing more in the way of Sun and dry conditions, with seasonal to slightly above average temperatures through Saturday. Sunday will see the high pressure start to move away, as another cold front approaches and drops into the region. The cold front will continue to move across the region on Monday. With the front will come a chance for scattered rain showers.

For those looking for a nice soaking widespread rain, unfortunately I don’t see that happening for the foreseeable future. So, with sporadic rain and breezy conditions, the drought will continue to worsen and the fire danger will remain high across the region.

 

 

Tropics…

Patty became a tropical storm yesterday, but now she is just a remnant low, heading east at 17 mph, with max sustained winds of 35 mph, and a central pressure of 999 mb. This will be my last mention of Patty. 

Tropical depression 18

Invest 97L is now a tropical depression, this should become Rafael sometime today. Currently this is in the southwestern Caribbean and is about 400 miles south east of Grand Cayman. It is moving north at 9MPH, with winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1003mb. The TD should be near Jamaica later tonight. Then move close to or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. With the warm SST and favorable conditions, this could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caymans and Cuba. For that reason, there are Tropical Storm Warnings up for Jamaica, and Hurricane Warnings up for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This will bring a swath of 8-14 inches of rain to parts of the Jamaica, Caymans, and western Cuba, with the high risk of flash flooding and landslides. The Terrain of western Cuba isn’t as mountainous as eastern Cuba, but it could still disrupt the circulation at least a bit.

By Thursday this will be in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a hurricane. The general setup is the same I talked about yesterday. We have high pressure to the north and east, with a front that is going to be dropping out of the southern Plains. The timing of this front is key as to where this ends up tracking. If the front is faster, it could steer this toward Florida. But if the front lags back (which is more likely), this would track generally toward Louisiana and Texas. It is also possible it could head toward Mexico.   The overall conditions over the GOM are not ideal. Wind shear and drier air will cause this a big issue, So I still expect this the weaken over the GOM.  

The NHC is watching another area near the northwest Caribbean...could Sara be out there?

Quick look at this week, Tropics and soon to be Rafael.

 

Today is sunny and a little warmer than yesterday. We have a warm front that is approaching and will move through on Monday and Tuesday. There could be isolated rain showers with the frontal passage.  This will usher in a strong southern flow, that will bring well above average temperatures for the 2^nd half of Monday and Election Day Tuesday.  For Tuesday night and Wednesday a moisture starved weak cold front will pass through bringing a chance for a few rain showers, but most should stay mostly to all dry. Out ahead of the front temperatures will still be very mild. Behind the front high pressure will build back in, meaning temperatures will cool slightly, but they should still be slightly above average for Thursday and Friday.

Tropics…

Subtropical Storm Patty, did pass over the Azores and is now pulling away.  Right now, she is heading east at 16 mph, with max sustained winds of 45 mph, and a central pressure of 992mb. She will become post tropical by tonight.

Invest 97L

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 80% and 90%. I expect I-97L will become Rafael sometime tomorrow.

Tomorrow afternoon he will be approaching Jamaica, with winds picking up. Conditions will go downhill and the worst of it will be during the evening/night.  Then Tuesday it will be moving toward the Yucatan Channel and should be approaching the Cayman Islands, and Cuba late Tuesday and Tuesday evening/night.

The conditions in the western and central Caribbean are quite favorable for development. Wind shear is low and SST are very warm with a lot of deep-water heat content, atmospheric moisture is fairly robust. So, the likelihood of a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane is fairly high.

8-12 inches of rain will lead to flooding and mudslides to this part of the Caribbean.  Tropical Storm Force winds with gust to hurricane force will be possible for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and western into central Cuba.

It remains to be seen how much the land interaction and the chance for some dry air will impact the circulation of I-97L. Once past Cuba, he will come close to the Keys.

By Thursday it should be in the Gulf.  The windshear will start to increase over the Yucatan Channel, and looks to become hostile over the GOM, water temperatures in the GOM have been cooling the last 7-10 days.

  Once in the GOM, we will have a front dropping out of the Central U.S. High pressure to it’s north and east. This steering pattern would suggest a track toward the Central GOM or the Yucatan. But, a track more generally toward the Florida Peninsula is possible. The conditions in the GOM are such that he should weaken fairly quickly as he heads over the Gulf. But everyone should keep an eye on him.

We do have that disturbance near Hispaniola. The development odds are a low 20%. The chance this will become a tropical depression is low, but it will be a big rainmaker for the northeast Caribbean. It is still a good possibility this will become absorbed by the circulation of I-97L in a couple of days. 

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Patty has formed, just not where I expected.

Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the Northern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is showing, Patty has sustained winds of 50 mph, min central pressure of 986mb, she is tracking ESE at 7 mph. about 400 miles west/northwest of the Azores.

Subtropical storms share the characteristics of both a tropical cyclone and an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical storms are typically larger than their tropical counterparts, with the stronger winds farther away from the center. A Subtropical storm has a much colder core when compared to a tropical storm. Winds must be continuously blowing at 39 miles an hour up to 73 miles an hour.

 To learn more about this, here is a post I did a few years ago.

Conditions are favorable for now, as she heads toward the Azores. But conditions will become hostile late Sunday into Monday.  She should become post-tropical by Monday. As she heads toward Portugal and Spain next week.

The Caribbean

A broad area of low pressure called a Central American Gyre (CAG) is slowly developing over the southwest Caribbean. It could become Invest 97L at any time.  This part of the Caribbean has favorable conditions, Conditions are generally favorable for development over the region, with sea surface temperatures of 84°F to 85°F, a moist atmosphere, with moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots. This supports the idea there is a very high likelihood, that a tropical system will form in this region over the next 24 - 48 hours.

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 60% and 80%, respectively.

A strong ridge of high pressure over Florida, is likely to initially steer this northward toward Jamaica, Then the steering winds should push this northwest and then west toward the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).  The conditions in the GOM will be much less favorable for sustainably with high wind shear and cooler SST. This is going to bring lots of rain and wind to Jamaica and western Cuba. The chances this will be an issue for the U.S. Coast is low. But those on the coast will want to keep an eye on this regardless.  

The next name on the list is Rafael.

The Southwest Atlantic

This area still has development odds of 10%. Any development is rather unlikely, but this will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Islands in the Northeast Caribbean as well as the southeast Bahamas.  This should eventually be absorbed by the tropical system that will be in the Caribbean.

 

Welcome to November!

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 Yesterday we saw record heat, today not so much!

The surface chart shows the cold front moving through with the rain over New England and approaching the Middle Atlantic Coast.  Winds will be a strong and very gusty along and ahead of the front, with winds of 20-30 mph, with higher gust possible.  Rain will end west to east by early afternoon.

This weekend is going to be dry with seasonal temperatures, as high pressure moves in overhead.

Monday will see high pressure start to exit the region, as a warm front approaches. A southwest flow will develop allowing for temperatures to warm up for Tuesday, scattered to isolated rain showers will accompany the front. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, Wednesday into Thursday. With the cold front things cool off again.

High pressure moves in for Friday and next weekend with cool and dry conditions.

Tropics…

The Central American Gyre (GAG), has moved into the Caribbean. As a result, the NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 30% and 70% in the southwest Caribbean.  With favorable conditions we should see a tropical depression develop over the weekend into next week.  There is a decent chance this becomes a named system sometime next week. How it tracks will depend on the location of high pressure to it’s north.  So, this looks to head toward the Yucatan. It could lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

We do have two other areas to watch, one is near Puerto Rico, this area of disturbed weather has 2-day/7-day odds of 10%. As this drifts westward, it could become absorbed by the larger system in the Caribbean. The other system is in the open north Atlantic west of the Azores. The odds of this becoming something subtropical are at a 2-day/7-day 10%.

If the system in the southwest Caribbean gets into the GOM 2^nd half of next week, high wind shear over the northern and western GOM is likely to be an issue. So the odds of this approaching the US Coast is slim to none.

The next names on the list are Patty and Rafael.