The Thanksgiving Storm…

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

High pressure is overhead for now

Our storm is developing in the Midwest. The storm is going to be a quick moving system, so it will move out of the Ohio Valley and quickly head for the Middle Atlantic region.

Thursday is going to be wet and snowy for some. Rain will be heavy at times. So, plan for a slower go and possibly traffic delays. So, allow plenty of time to get to where you’re going.

General snowfall amounts

Snow will be elevational dependent, with the heaviest snow over areas that are above 1500 feet.  Along the twin tiers of New York State up over southern Vermont, across New Hampshire into western and central Maine 4-8 inches of snow is possible, the higher elevations of the Pocono’s, Catskills, Greens, and Whites look to see 8-12+ inches.  Northwest Connecticut could see a trace to 2 inches.  Much of western Massachusetts looks to see 2-4 inches with the Berkshires seeing 4-6 inches.

The Appalachians, areas north and east of Pittsburgh up through central Pennsylvania, a mix is likely with snow looking to be maybe 1- 4 inches.

North of the I-90 across much of northern New York State 2-5 inches with the Adirondacks seeing 4-10 inches. Along the shores of Lake Ontario, back through Syracuse, Mohawk Valley and central and southern Hudson Valley a trace to a couple of inches.

For Maryland, Delaware along the I-95 corridor up through NYC most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southeast Massachusetts up through Boston this should be primarily a cold rain event.  

For those going to the parades in the major cities, it will be rainy and chilly, so dress for the weather. Winds shouldn’t be too bad during the morning, but they will be increasing during the afternoon.

For Black Friday, it looks to be generally dry with just lingering rain/snow showers. But it will be a different story for those near the Great Lakes.

An upper-level low overhead will have shortwave troughs rotate around it. The arctic air mass moving over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes will kick off significant lake effect snow bands. These snow bands will be meandering a bit for Friday into Sunday east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Downwind of the Great Lakes several inches of snow will be falling, this will be especially true for the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau, those under the most persistent lake bands will be dealing with a general 2-4 feet of snow, with localized higher amounts possible. For Sunday night into Monday the flow will allow the bands to drop south and east of the Lakes.

The pattern is going to support several waves of polar/arctic air intrusions along with Clippers dropping out of Canada over the next few weeks. With the overall patten looking to be cold over the next 2 to 3 weeks, there will be more snow chances.

Of course there will be no post tomorrow. 

 

 

 

Thanksgiving snow.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

We have a warm front with a trailing cold front moving through, rain/mix associated with the front is pushing west to east, into New England. Winds will become very gusty during the course of the day.

Today temperatures will be mild for this time of year, with clearing skies behind the frontal system, leading to most of us being dry. But for later today into tomorrow, those downwind of Lake Erie and especially Lake Ontario. Off of Lake Erie, a couple of inches will be possible south and east of Buffalo. For those to the east of Lake Ontario, 2-6 inches of snow will be possible for places like the Tug Hill Plateau. Everyone else on Wednesday should have dry weather, perfect for pre-Thanksgiving travel.

Wednesday night and Thursday.

Low pressure will be approaching out of the Midwest, this will bring widespread rain and higher elevation snow. Northern New York and northern New England look have a chance to see some snow/mix. But the farther north you are the less you will see. A couple of inches will be possible in these areas, with the higher elevations seeing a bit more by Friday morning. But for the southern half of New York State, Southern New England and across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, heavier rain and some snow is likely. Snow will be elevation dependent. So higher elevations across the twin tiers of Pennsylvania and New York State will see accumulating snowfall, this will be especially true for the Pocono and Catskill Mountains. Those farther south and in the lower elevations would see more in the way of rain and some mix possible. For the higher elevations, this would be a heavy wet snow, with several inches possible. Temperatures will be marginal so snow in the higher elevations could eventually change back to rain. Winds will lag a bit, so the winds shouldn't be too bad during the morning, with winds ramping up during the afternoon, so the balloons look like they will fly.

There is still time for this to change, if the storm is stronger it could trend north.

As the low moves off shore, it will move north and east toward and near the Gulf of Maine. This will allow the rain, mix and snow to more north and east with it. Who sees what will depend on the exact track the departing storm takes.  

Friday, the Weekend into the first half of next week.

Much colder air will come in behind the storm, we will also have a series of troughs move across the region.  coastal rain and interior snow showers will be possible, these would be isolated to scattered in nature. Winds will also be blustery as well. Those downwind of the Great Lakes will be dealing with lake effect snow. This would be a multiday major lake effect event. With the troughs moving through, lake snow bands will be meandering a bit with the wind change. But the snowbelts can expect significant snow, with some measuring snow depth in feet.

End of next week could see yet another storm move through the region. As I said in the Outlook, December could be quite active with lots of snow chances; that does appear to be the pattern that is setting up.  

The calm before a big change.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The surface chart and radar show, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley along with a couple of troughs hanging around, with isolated snow/mix showers up over Maine.

Today will be dry with warming temperatures

Dry weather is in store across the region on today as high pressure temporarily builds in. But a system will move into Canada, dragging a cold front through the region, the front will bring rain showers, this evening into tomorrow. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Temperatures will be quite mild, so this should be a rain event, but I can’t rule out a bit of mix in the highest elevations.  As the system pulls away, lake effect rain/snow bands will set up downwind of Lake Ontario, this will likely bring some accumulating snow to places like the Tug Hill for late Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday. Everyone else should see generally dry conditions for the busy pre-Thanksgiving travel day.  

Wednesday night and Thanksgiving,

We will have the potential for a snowstorm. The Euro is showing the potential for heavy accumulating snow for northwest and northern Pennsylvania, across a large part of New York State and northern into central New England. With those in the coastal plain, southern New York State and southern New England (including the Catskills and the Poconos), across the I-95 along with southeastern and southern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic seeing a cold rain. Lingering snow and rain will be around for Friday into Saturday. The American GFS and some other models are showing the storm tracking farther south, this would bring the chance for accumulating snow for central and northeastern Pennsylvania into Southeast New York State, the Catskills and Poconos could see accumulating snow. This would allow for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England seeing rain/mix. The northern half of the region under this scenario, would stay mostly dry.   

I'm leaning toward the Euro, but we will have to see on things trend.

Winds will have to be watched for those cities flying balloons on Thanksgiving Day. Right now, winds across New York City and Philadelphia are looking to be below the can’t fly threshold.

Much colder air will be coming in behind the storm, northwest winds could bring significant lake snow to areas downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

The pattern will turn much colder, starting this weekend and looking to last for at least the first half of December

 

Sunday’s post for the week

 A large part of the Northeast has seen their first measurable snowfall for this season.

The northwest flow is bringing chilly air into the region. We have a lake rain/snow band on the southeast side of Lake Ontario, bringing snow to the hills south Syracuse and Mohawk Valley. This is going to generally stay here for the remainder of the day, before dissipating this evening. We also have a lake effect rain band coming off of Lake Erie. The radar shows scattered snow showers over northern Maine, with isolated snow/mix showers over New York State into Vermont and New Hampshire.  The rest of the region is mainly dry.

Monday and Tuesday will see temperatures warming, Monday looks to be dry, with rain moving into the region Monday evening and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. With the warmer temperatures this will be primarily a rain event, but the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could see some mixing.

Lake Effect snow will be falling across the Tug Hill into the Adirondacks for Tuesday night and Wednesday, the rest of the region shouldn’t be too bad

The Thanksgiving storm:

We have a disturbance off the Northwest Coast, this will move into the Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday, then end up working across the U.S.

The timing is looking for this to be faster than it was looking last week. So, this will have big implications for Thanksgiving travel and impacts.

The track is still in question,

If the track is across Virginia and the Middle Atlantic then out to sea, other than some mountain snow across northern New York State and northern New England. The rest of the region sees little to none.

 If the track is across Pennsylvania into New England, it brings accumulating snow for the northern tier of Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England. The snow would track north and east from early morning Thursday for western Pennsylvania and New York State then into New England during the afternoon into evening.

Winds will likely pose an issue for the parades flying large balloons on Thanksgiving.  

A look at the longer range.

We have snow pack building across western Canada. This is important as it helps cold air transport that comes down from the north. The pattern will stay active. With high latitude blocking near Greenland and a lot of ridging over the Gulf of Alaska.  

The pattern setting up, allows for cold air near and around the Pole, to get pushed south into the Plains and East Coast. With a lot of overall troughing in the Midwest and East Coast.

Here’s a look at the Euro and GFS showing the 500mb height anomalies

Here is the GFS thoughts on the overall pattern.  The Euro is looking similar. 

So, the end of November and December will likely be overall cold, with the pattern staying active there will likely be snowstorm chances.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 14 day outlook does support this idea.

 

Our storm is starting to pull away

A look at snowfall totals from the National Weather Service

I added the inch amounts to the color amount chart

Today's charts

Behind the departing system, a trough is entering the region, allowing more cold to work into the region

Tonight into Sunday, lake effect (LE) will be possible. At first winds will be out of the northwest, LE rain will be possible across the lower elevations of southern Oswego and Onondaga Counties, with some accumulating LE snow in the hills south and southeast of Syracuse. Right now, accumulations look to be light, but there could be a few inches for tonight and Sunday. The higher elevations of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks could see a bit of snow as well.

Today is chilly and a blustery, we have lingering rain/snow showers over parts of the region.  Monday is looking to be mainly dry; temperatures should warm up ahead of the approaching cold front. Monday night and Tuesday will see the cold front come through, this front will be weak, so not a lot of precipitation is expected.

For Wednesday a bit of Lake effect snow will be likely downwind of Lake Erie and especially Lake Ontario, but most areas should be dry, so there shouldn’t be any travel issues.

As I said over the last couple of days, we have a system currently in the Rockies, that will move cross country, and impact parts of our region with rain and snow for late week. How things trend will decide who sees what. One main thing will depend on the timing of the cold air. The second things will be the track, If the storm takes a more northernly track, there could be accumulating snow and snow showers, with the southern tier of New York State and northern tier of Pennsylvania having the best shot at some accumulating snow, the rest of the northeast will end up with snow showers that could accumulate in the higher elevations.  Those across Southern Pennsylvania into parts of the northern Middle Atlantic would have a chance for a mix. Gusty winds could interfere with the balloons for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade and other cities that fly balloons. If the storm tracks farther south, the precipitation shield and winds would be farther south, but parts of Pennsylvania could still see some snow in the higher elevations. It’s too early to know exactly which scenario will occur.

Black Friday weather will depend on how fact the storm exits. The northern track means a longer lasting deration event, which would mean lingering rain/snow, and blustery winds for Black Friday shoppers.  The southern track, would mean greatly improved conditions for Black Friday shoppers.

Next weekend will depend on which scenario prevails.

 

 

First widespread snow for some of us.

 

The surface chart shows, Low pressure over Southeastern New York State into northeastern Pennsylvania, with an occluded front looped over the region. Radar is showing rain showers and higher elevation snow.

 

 

Weather Underground

 

 

Penn state

 

This is the first snow storm of the season, generally it looks like my snow map worked out okay, with some areas over achieving. Let me know, how much snow you ended up with, include your town/city.

Today will be chilly with rain and snow showers continuing, with the higher elevations seeing some additional accumulations, especially for the Poconos and Catskills. Winds will still be gusty.

Watches and Warnings

Pivotal Weather

Saturday the low will linger close-by along with a few troughs working through. This will keep the weather a bit unsettled with scattered rain and snow showers. But rain and snow won’t be as widespread as today. We will also keep the breezy conditions. Saturday will quite chilly, with below average temperatures. Northwest winds coming around the low, will setup some lake effect snow for those southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario; the temperatures won’t be all that cold, so accumulations will be light, but there could end up being a few inches of lake snow in some spots.

 For Saturday night high pressure will be approaching this will, this will generally clear us out for Sunday and Monday, but there will still be a breeze and isolated rain along with some snow showers and hit and miss lake enhanced rain/snow.

Tuesday will see a weak cold front move through providing scattered to isolated rain/snow showers. But any accumulations should be light. Wednesday will see high pressure move back in keeping us cool but dry. High pressure remains for Thanksgiving, so the much of the day should stay dry.

We’re going to see another block set up, as another system approaches for later Thanksgiving and for Black Friday. This will likely bring at least part of the region more rain and snow showers, who sees what will depend on the amount of cold and the exact track the system takes. This is going to keep things unsettled for the Thanksgiving weekend.   

As I said yesterday the overall pattern for the next 7 to 14 days is looking to see overall troughing over the Great Lakes and Eastern US. This will keep us with an active pattern with generally chilly to sometimes cold air.

The snow is here.

 

The surface chart shows, low pressure in the Great Lakes, with low pressure developing off the Coast.  The radar out of P-State shows rain showers, and higher elevational snow showers. The coastal/nor’easter is going to continue to develop, first it will drift north and west into New York State, then it slows down and looks to maybe stall tonight, before dropping back south into Pennsylvania tomorrow.

This will be a fairly long event, lasting into Saturday.

Today and tomorrow will be gusty with 10-20 mph, with gust of around 30 mph inland, those near and along the coast will see high winds with gust of 30 to 40 mph.  Over the next few days we’re going to be dealing with some shortwave troughs that will move through, helping to produce and enhance rain and snow showers.

The rain over the next few days will 0.50 to 1.50 inches with higher amounts possible, this rain will be widespread and the first meaningful rain large parts of the region has seen in months.

The  Appalachians look to get a good thump. As I said yesterday, accumulating snowfall will be elevational, Elevations above 1000 feet could see an inch or two, with the bulk of the snow for those above 1500 feet. The lower elevations and valleys could end up mixing as colder air moves in later today and tomorrow. Even those in New York City and even Philadelphia could see a few snowflakes. But these areas won’t see any real measurable snowfall.  The higher elevations will see 2 to as much as 8 inches of wet snow, with the highest peaks of the, Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens, and whites seeing 8 to 12 inches with localized amounts of around 14 inches possible.

I still think the general overall map I made yesterday is still valid. 

late Saturday and Sunday the system will start to drift away, leaving lingering scattered rain/snow showers around for Sunday. The weekend will see limited lake effect off of the Great Lakes as well.

High pressure builds back in for Monday, with temperatures staying chilly, but generally dry conditions. A weak cold front will slide through for Tuesday bringing scattered to isolated showers. Can't rule out lake enhanced rain/snow showers

For Wednesday into Thanksgiving, high pressure will be overhead.

There is a chance another cross-country storm impacting part of our region end of next week. The pattern looks to stay active for the next couple of weeks. Then I still think a substantial cold snap will be coming in for Mid-December.    

The last dry day before much needed rain.

 

I’ve been talking about this storm for over a week now, so all y’all should know it’s coming.

The surface chart shows our system in the Midwest. This is going to deepen and dive toward the Middle Atlantic. We will see a coastal nor’easter develop around the Delmarva Peninsula then this will deepen as in moves off the New Jersey Coast, on its way to track over New England. The storm looks to become stalled for Friday into Friday evening, be for starting to slow move to the east Friday night and Saturday.

This is going to bring widespread rain amounts of 0.50 to 2.0 inches, with localized abound of 2.5 inches possible. This won’t be a drought buster, but it will put a decent dent into things. Rain will be heavy at times.  Winds are going to be gusty across the region.

Cold air is going to wrap in behind the storm, changing rain to wet snow for the Appalachians in Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Snow will extend up through the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania and across much of northern Pennsylvania, then a large part of New York State into northern and western New England. Those across the Middle Atlantic, New York City, Long Island, into southern and eastern New England will see primarily a cold rain, with maybe a few flakes mixing in.

This will be elevational, with the snow line starting around 1500 feet. The lower elevations could see some snow mixing in across parts of the region, but accumulating snows are likely for middle to upper elevations. The peaks in the Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites could see upwards of a foot of snow.

The storm will be slow to exit, because of the block in place. As that coastal storm develops, it will expand the precipitation shield. so, we can expect rain/snow showers to expand to the west. The rain/snow showers will extend into the Weekend.  Here is a map, that shows my general thoughts on possible snow amounts.  The nor’easter will be pulling way on Sunday.

The cold air coming in behind the storm Friday night and Saturday, will cause west to northwest winds to blow over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, Will allow for some lake enhanced snow to develop downwind of the Big Lakes, the temperature profile isn’t supportive for significant lake snows to fall. But it is possible some broken lake effect bands could form that could drop a few inches.

Monday will see high pressure move in. Then for Tuesday a weak moisture starved cold front will move through. High pressure looks to move in overhead for Wednesday.  The high pressure looks to hang around for Thursday.  Sunday into Thursday looks to see lake effect rain/snow showers downwind of the Great Lakes. These shouldn’t be very heavy, but they might slow you down as you travel.

 

Snow is coming

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion.

The surface/radar charts, show weak high-pressure overhead, with a few showers over northeast New England from the storm off the Coast.  We can also see that developing storm in the West.

We’re going to have a warm front lifting through, other than a few showers, many of us should stay mainly dry into Wednesday. We’re going to see mild air move back in ahead of the storm to the West.

We have high latitude blocking over eastern Canada and Greenland. This is going to allow the storm in the Plains, to move toward the Great Lakes, where it will deepen, and then it will be forced to move south and east toward the Middle Atlantic for later Wednesday and Friday. Friday into Saturday this looks to become a Nor’easter as in moves north and east around the block. Cold air will wrap in behind the low pressure, bringing colder temperatures into the region for Wednesday night into Friday.

This is going to bring much needed rain to the region.  Later Wednesday rain will likely break out over western areas, this rain will work its way east during the Wednesday night and Thursday. As I said yesterday, a general 0.50 to 1.25 of an inch is likely with higher amounts possible.

Cold air wrapping in behind the storm will change rain over a mix/snow in the Appalachians and higher elevations of Northeast Pennsylvania and New York State on Thursday. The change over to higher elevation snow will start in western and northern New England Thursday night into Friday.  As the Nor’easter develops, it is going to drag in even colder air, this will likely lead to moderate to perhaps heavy snow in the higher elevations across the Poconos, Catskills, the hills south of the Mohawk Valley as well as part of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, northwest CT western MA, and Greens in Vermont along with the higher elevations of New Hampshire and Maine.  It’s too early for specifics but these areas have a chance of seeing 2-5 inches, with the higher peeks seeing perhaps 12 inches, maybe with locally higher amounts possible. But who sees what will depend on how cold it gets and the exact track of the storm. As air cools it will be possible for a mix and maybe some flakes in the lower elevations and valleys.

The cold air is going to hang around for the weekend, with the cold air moving over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, lake effect snow is likely to set up, east and south east of the big Lakes. The temperature profile doesn’t look robust enough for a significant event, but limited lake effect should bring at least a few inches for those downwind of the lakes in the typical snowbelts.

Thursday thru Sunday is going to be breezy. With the cold air, rain/snow showers will be possible over the Weekend.

Next week is looking chilly and blustery.

Welcome to a new week!

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion.

The surface shows a few shortwave troughs and that moisture starved cold front moving through; radar is showing a few isolated showers, but that’s about it. Temperatures ahead of the front will be mild. Behind the front seasonal temperatures will return for the next couple of days.

Tuesday into Wednesday a warm front will lift into the region. With the front temperature will temporarily warm along with some rain showers.

The pattern change.

A Feature in the polar jet around Hudson Bay, is going to slide south and east into the Gulf of Maine, this will then act as a block, forcing the system in the southern Plains to move into the Midwest then force it to reform over eastern Pennsylvania or just off the Coast, then it will move over New York State into northern New England and Canada. This will bring rain showers later in day on Wednesday for western parts of the region, the cold front will continue to move east during the night into Thursday.  This will be bringing needed rain to a large part of the region. General rainfall amounts look to be 0.50 to 1.25 inches but there could be localized amounts of around 2 inches.

Colder air will be streaming in behind the front, this will bring snow to the Appalachians, and will change rain over to a mix for some of the lower elevations, with a mix/snow for the higher elevations, later Thursday into Friday morning. The higher elevations of New York State and northern into Central New England could see measurable snowfall.  Who sees the mix will depend on how much cold can get in here and the exact track of the low.

The colder northwest wind coming over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will support some Lake Effect snow bands for Saturday into Sunday. Those Southeast of the Lakes should see some measurable snowfall. How much will again depend on the temperature profile over the Big Lakes. There could be a decent amount snow in localized spots of the snowbelts, but right now it doesn't look to be a blockbuster event.   

The cold pattern coming will be stick around for a while, so cooler temperatures will be generally in store for 7-10 days. Then we should see the pattern for mid-December take hold that I talked about in the Winter Outlook.

Tropical discussion

Sara has dissipated, and is no lower being tracked by the NHC. Her remnants will bring heavy rain for the northern Gulf Coast as well as Florida. 

Rain is looking more and more likely for the 2nd half of the week

 

Northeast weather discussion for this week…

Today is seeing mild conditions and much less winds. We do have a cold front approaching that will move through the region tomorrow. The front is moisture starved, so it won’t bring a lot of rain, but scattered to isolated rain showers can be expected Monday, especially for New York State and New England. South and east of there the rain chances look to be widely isolated.  bringing us scattered rain showers. Winds will be breezy with the front.

Thursday through Saturday.

A system will come into the Pacific, as this moves east it will become cut off, as a jet streak forms on the southern side of the system. The system will dig in and rapidly deepen as it moves toward the Midwest, by the time it reaches the Great Lakes it will be very strong.  This looks to be widespread rain event, where 0.50-1.0 inches could fall.  The storm will bring about Dynamic cooling as it creates its own cold air.  With the cold air there could be some snow/mix for parts of northern New England, New York State, into Pennsylvania. There could be heavy snow in the Appalachians and lake effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The weekend will be cool and breezy as the storm pulls away on Saturday.

Tropical discussion

Tropical Storm Sara did stall, as a result she drenched the northern coast of Honduras, where up to 40 inches of rain fell in some areas. She has now started moving again, she is moving west-northwest at around 5 mph.

Tropical Storm Sara’s center is close to the Coast of Belize; once she moves across Belize she will track into Guatemala, and then across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Once inland she is going to quickly weaken then dissipate tonight or Monday over the southern Yucatan, or in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. From here, a front will steer her remnants towards the northern east Gulf Coast or the central Florida Coast, her remnants are going to bring rain and some wind Wednesday. There will also be the risk for some tornadoes.

 

The official end of Hurricane Season 2024 is in sight.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30^th.

While a can’t say there won’t be anymore tropical disturbances after Sara dies; the odds do get lower. While the SST in the Gulf are generally below the tropical formation threshold of 80°F. The SST in the Caribbean are 84°F to 85°F. it will take other factors besides just warm water, but warm water is a key ingredient. So, it is possible we could see a rouge tropical cyclone form during the rest of November or even in the off-season during December.

Could some drought relief be in the cards?

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

Surface chart and radar show the ocean storm moving in from the east, along with the storm that was suppressed south off the Coast of Virginia and North Carolina. We also have high pressure building in out of Canada.  Radar shows the rain has moved off the Middle Atlantic Coast, with some rain pushing into northeast Maine. The air is very dry, so the radar has more bark than bite, as much of this isn’t reaching the ground.

Today will be warmer, with breezy conditions, the highest gusty will be over Maine were gust of 30 to 40 mph will be possible at times. Most of the rest of New England could see 20-30 mph gust with New York State, Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic region seeing gust of 10-25 mph.

Tonight, will be cool, but likely won’t be as chilly as the last couple of nights. Saturday will start out a bit chilly, but temperatures will recover by the afternoon with seasonal to slightly above average highs. That ocean storm will be lurking off the coast, so there is a chance for isolated showers for eastern New England, this will be especially true for Maine into Northeast Massachusetts.  The rest of the region should stay dry. Sunday will have high pressure overhead providing more sun and even milder temperatures with well above average highs. We will be watching a frontal system approach from the north and west.  New England will likely be dealing with some coastal flooding today and tomorrow during high tides from the ocean storm.

By Sunday evening isolated rain showers will be possible over New York State into Pennsylvania. These will move south and east Sunday night and Monday, we can expect scattered rain showers, but the front will be moisture starved, so rain amounts should be fairly light. Tuesday will see high pressure back in charge, providing seasonally mild temperatures with dry conditions.  Wednesday will see the mild conditions continue, the high pressure will start to push east, as an area of  strong low pressure moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rain could break out over parts of Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic by Wednesday evening.  For Thursday the low in the Great Lakes looks to deepen as a front lift into our region. Cold air will be wrapping around the low into the region. This system brings the best shot of meaningful rain to the region, especially if some tropical moisture can be pulled into the region. we could be talking 0.50 to 1.0 inches of rain for a large part of the region.  I’ve been talking about the possibility of some snow for parts of New York State and Pennsylvania for the last few days. There could also be measurable lake snows downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The could could hang around for several days. There is still time for things to change, so I will know more as we get closer.

Remember due to the long stretch of dry weather, breezy conditions, and lower humidity the wild fire danger is very high.  

 

Tropical Storm Sara

 

Max sustained winds are 50 mph, min central pressure is 997mb, The National Hurricane Center has this moving west at 5 mph.  Sara is likely to hang just off the coast of Honduras for a couple of days. The odds that she reaches hurricane strength is lower than they were.  As the approaching front grabs, her, she will be pulled over the Yucatan where she will weaken and very likely dissipate. What’s left of her, could make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The steering currents would have her move toward Florida. It remains to be seen if she will be able to strengthen a bit over the GOM, but the most likely outcome will be she will be a remnant by the time she reaches Southern Florida, bringing heavy rain, and a chance for tornadoes.

Have a great weekend.

Drought continues to get worse.

 

Looking at the Drought Monitor released today, it shows the abnormally dry and drought conditions continue to widen and worsen, with only a few areas not being impacted by the lack of rain.

Due to the substantial lack of rainfall and enduring breezy conditions; the soil and vegetation has dried up. Which has led to numerous wildfires in the region, this is especially true for New Jersey and Southeast New York State.  

Across the Northeast there are numerous rivers running very low, with water reservoirs being heavily impacted.

According to the Northeast Regional Climate Center. “Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or persisted for much of the Northeast. Extreme drought expanded in southern New Jersey. Severe drought expanded in New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts and was introduced in southeastern New York, western Connecticut, and northern Rhode Island. Moderate drought increased in coverage in central Maryland and southern and eastern West Virginia, while abnormal dryness expanded in western New Hampshire, northeastern Vermont, western New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania”.

The good news is that southwestern Pennsylvania saw enough rainfall that the exceptional and/or extreme drought conditions have improved a bit.

Only 4% of the Northeast was not experiencing drought or abnormal dryness this week, the third lowest percentage since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on November 14 showed less than 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 5% in extreme drought, 21% in severe drought, 32% in moderate drought, and 38% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 6%, 13%, 37%, and 37%, respectively, last week.

Don't start any fires outdoors, for any reason!

With the pattern looking to change end of next week...hopefully we can see a reduction in the drought conditions down the road.

 

Finally a change in the pattern?

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

Today started out very chilly, but the temperatures warmed, to seasonal to slightly above seasonal.  Winds are breezy ahead of a system trying to approach from the west.

High pressure and an upper-level ocean storm near Atlantic Canada, is going to act as a block, forcing the approaching system to track south and east.

Far western Pennsylvania will see some rain today, as this system drifts east a bit more, showers will become more in the way of scattered for places like Pittsburgh this evening. Some of this rain will make it into far western New York this evening, I can’t rule out a chance for a few isolated showers making their way to the Finger Lakes tonight. As that inland system continues to drop south and east, a few scattered showers will be possible across Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware this evening into tonight, but the bulk of the rain will stay to the south closer to the Delmarva Peninsula. Our winds will remain breezy. Every one else should stay dry today.  

Tomorrow high pressure will build in from Canada and the ocean storm will retrograde closer to northern New England.  The high pressure will keep it from getting too close, but scattered showers will be possible later tomorrow morning in Maine, this will be especially true for Northeast Maine. Northern Maine could see some mix before it turns to rain. A few isolated rain showers could make it into northern New Hampshire Friday night.   Everyone else should stay mainly dry. Tomorrow will start out chilly, but temperatures will become mild by the afternoon.

Saturday the upper-level low will be lurking nearby, keeping the threat for a few scattered showers over Maine. The southern low will be moving away, but Isolated showers will still be possible across parts of Maryland and Delaware during the morning. Everyone else should stay dry with lots of sunshine, providing milder conditions. The upper-level system will move far enough away, that Sunday should be dry with even milder temperatures.

Sunday low pressure will be moving into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this will move through on Monday providing a chance for scattered rain showers across our northern areas, with everyone else having a chance for widely scattered to isolated rain showers.

Tuesday high pressure build in overhead keeping us dry. Wednesday will see the high pressure remaining in control so we stay dry, with seasonal temperatures.

 

A pattern change

 

We’re going to see a strong blocking pattern that is going to set up for Monday Through Wednesday of next week (18th, 19th and 20^th)

We look to have a potent snow storm once again in Colorado this will likely spawn a severe weather outbreak in Texas and southern Plains. This then looks to move up into the Great Lakes and Canada. On the backside of this, a trough is going to dig into the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. With this trough cold air that is over Alaska, is going to be forced down into the Central and Eastern US. Next Thursday and Friday, a deep area of low pressure looks to be over the Northeast. This very well could become a big lake snow event. The CPC is even hinting at this.

 

Tropical Depression 19

 

Max sustained winds are 35 mph, min central pressure is 1004mb, The National Hurricane Center has this moving west at 14 mph. TD 19 is over very warm water with lighter windshear, so this should become Sara soon. She still looks to meander or even stall along the Honduras coast for the next few days. How strong she becomes will depend on how much impact she receives from land interaction.  If she can remain over open water, should has a chance to be come a hurricane, maybe even major. But if she moves over the Yucatan, she would likely weaken quite a bit, possibly weaken beyond her ability to recover when she moves back into the Gulf.  Once in the Gulf there is a good chance for her to move toward Florida, as she is guided by high pressure over the Southeast U.S.