Today’s
Northeast weather discussion…
High
pressure is slipping east, allowing a southwest flow to bring in Balmy
temperatures for today, so it will be excellent to go and vote.
The surface
chart shows the cold front over the Plains moving into the Midwest. As this
approaches our region, it is going to be much weaker.
Today will
be breezy, ahead of the moisture starved cold front, with rain chances going up
for western Pennsylvania this evening, rain will become a little heavier tonight
into the overnight, but coverage will be spotty. The rain will make it into
western New York State early tomorrow morning, but again coverage will be
isolated. The weak cold front will push across
New York State and Pennsylvania tomorrow morning and afternoon, making it into
New England and the Middle Atlantic late in the day on Wednesday, again rain
will be isolated to widely scattered.
The cooler air coming in behind the front will be slow to make it in, so
Wednesday will still be fairly mild. There could be a few lingering showers for
eastern parts of the region Thursday morning.
Thursday
through Saturday, high pressure overhead will provide more sun and dry
conditions, with temperatures cooling off to around seasonal. So, all in all,
not all that bad for the first part of November.
Sunday, high
pressure will shift off the Coast, which will allow a cold front to approach.
This front will move through on Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance for
scattered showers; some of these showers could briefly become locally heavy.
Then high pressure builds back in for Tuesday and sticking around for a few
days.
This back-and-forth
temperature pattern is going to be with us for the foreseeable future. There will be rain chances, but I don’t see
any big soaking rain events. So don’t hold your breath looking for drought
relief.
Rafael
He is continuing to organize, the favorable conditions should allow him to become a hurricane later today, before impacting the Cayman Islands late this evening, and then western Cuba. Once in the Gulf conditions do become much more hostile, but he should still be a hurricane when he gets into the Gulf on Thursday, he will move over the Gulf Stream, these waters are warm enough, that he could become a Category 2 hurricane, But the higher wind shear, dry air and cooler water north of the stream should weaken him fairly quickly. So, if he makes it to the northern Gulf Coast, the best he looks to be is a tropical storm. Most of the guidance has him moving toward Louisiana and maybe Texas, but some to turn in west before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.
Between the high pressure in the Atlantic and Rafael to the west, Florida will be quiet windy, for the next couple of days, rain doesn't look to pose a flood threat. The flood threat becomes a bit higher for Georgia into parts of the western Southeast.