06/23/2025

The severe weather for early morning.

 The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that was running around the outer  periphery of the heat dome over the Midwest. Ended up, dropping down across New York State and down across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the early hours of Sunday. The MCS caused quite a bit of wind damage across parts of northern New York State down through central New York State There was even a confirmed high-end EF1 tornado with winds of 105 mph; that touched down near Clark Mills, NY. Sadly 3 people were killed in Clark Mills. The thunderstorm complex also dropped medium to large hail in some places. The storm deposited a lot of rain; some areas ended up seeing  4-6  inches of rain in one hour, which led to lots of flash flooding.

Severe weather Is always dangerous Especially night time severe storms Always have a way to to be warned approaching severe storms. Always take warnings seriously!

What about this week.

For the 1st half of this week it's going to be sunny, hot and humid. Remember, heat is the biggest killer of any type of weather. I grew up in the Texas Panhandle where it gets extremely hot in the summer. The Northeast isn't accustomed to a lot of hot weather The heat that's coming in is going to be dangerous and nothing to be scoffed at!

We have the Bermuda High that's going to continue to pump heat into our region. Starting today, The region is going to be dominated by this monster ridge that's gonna be sitting over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  

As far as rain Under the dome we could have a chance for a few isolated showers and maybe a rogue thunderstorm but the vast majority of the region won't see any of that except sun and heat If you look up at the surface chart/radar You can see all the rain and storms rotating around that high pressure ridge/ heat dome.

The images shown above are only based on the GFS Other models are showing different temperatures But it gives a good general idea of what to expect. These temperatures could be getting hotter and what the model shows.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Both today and tomorrow we'll see high temperatures across the region in the upper 80s°F And through the 90s°F with some areas possibly seeing 100 Plus°F.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Dew points Are going to be in the 70s to possibly around 80s, for some. This is about as high as they can get for our region.

Image credit Pivotal weather

This will make for very high heat indexes. The region is going to see heat indexes run from 100-120°F. That is the feel like temperature So you want to take it seriously. The heat index is the air temperature and dew point added together.

Temperatures will start to back off on Wednesday, as the ridge drops a little south and west. But we're still gonna be dealing with this ridge where it will continue to influence our temperatures. It's going to start to breakdown as we get into the weekend So until then we will see above average temperatures for Wednesday Thursday and Friday.

As the ridge shifts we will reintroduce the chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches. The trough is going to enter out of Canada and move across our region. As storms rotate around that ridge/heat dome. Thunderstorms will likely be fairly isolated. Those with the greatest chance of seeing thunderstorms would be across the southern half of New York State Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. But  a few rain showers and even some thunderstorms would be possible across the rest of the region. Thursday we once again see rain showers and thunderstorms  rotating around the ridge, as a trough sets up. Those with the greatest chance of seeing the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Will be across New York State and Pennsylvania Into the Middle Atlantic. Elsewhere rain showers and thunderstorms would be more isolated. 

Some of the storms On Wednesday and Thursday could  be strong to severe. This will be especially true on Thursday as the cold front is moving through. The storms Wednesday night and on Thursday could be fairly widespread scattered thunderstorms. The timing of any storms would likely be 2PM through 8 or 9PM.  The cold front is going to stall for a bit and then start to push south on Friday. Finally kicking the humidity and high temperatures out of here.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday look to see the chances for scattered rain and some thunderstorms across the region, due to our proximity to the frontal boundary.  None of these days look to be a washout. The showers will be isolated to scattered. 

Remember to drink plenty of water and obey the hot weather safety rules during outside activities. Check on your neighbors and remember animals are as susceptible or even more to the heat as you are. 

Severe storms dropping out of Canada

 

Severe storms are dropping south and east out of Canada; as they rotate around the high pressure ridge, ring of fire. This is a mesoscale convective complex.Which is a type of mesoscale convective system that I talked about the other day. The system dropping out of Canada has a history of damaging winds, Downpours, and hail. 

The atmospheric conditions overhead are more than sufficient to support severe weather during the overnight across New York State into new England. The high dew point and temperatures will continue to destabilize the atmosphere, creating quite a bit of instability. There is a good chance the line will expand as it moves into our region. As this drops through New York State into New England we will see a line of severe thunderstorms move through during the overnight into Sunday morning. This will be capable of strong damaging winds with gusts of over 70 miles an hour possible, some frequent lightning, heavy downpours and medium to perhaps large hail will also be possible, but the large hail should be isolated.

Here is a look At the current convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC).

Image credit pivotal weather.

Night time severe weather is especially dangerous; because many people are sleeping. So have a way to be alerted if severe weather approaches your area.

Stay safe!

06/20/2025

 

The cold front responsible for all the severe weather yesterday Is off the coast, taking the heat and humidity with it. Today will be cool. But it won't last for long.

The summer solstice starts tonight at 10:41PM.

We look to see a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develop in the North Dakota and Minnesota tomorrow This will move east and then south and east as it rotates around that huge high pressure ridge of heat in the Plains. A MCS, is a large organized group of thunderstorms, that can last for several hours and travel hundreds of miles. MCS's can bring lots of rain and the risk of damaging winds, Hail and even some tornadoes can also be an issue. During the night MCS's can become very intense. This  could hold together for very early Saturday into Saturday morning, for this reason the storm prediction center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk on Saturday, for severe weather over the Great Lakes into New York State and northern Pennsylvania. This will be for the evening  into the night on Saturday, we could see more strong /severe storms associated with a warm front, but the main woody will be what's dropping in out of Canada across New York State into New England, as things rotate around the ridge.

The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday for northern and eastern New York State into new England.

This will be due to strong and severe storms in the Upper Midwest forming and moving over the top of the heat ridge and then sliding down into the Northeast. The ridge over the Plains will push east over the weekend.

Heat and humidity will start to build back north on Saturday. By Sunday, Monday and Tuesday we will be completely under the heat dome. Which will be bringing the Northeast and Middle Atlantic region a lot of heat and humidity. Some of this could last into Thursday. Those under the ridge will have a chance for Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms; but those closer to and along the edge could stay active as systems continue to rotate around this huge dome.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbit

Image courtesy of pivotal weather.

This will be the hottest weather we've seen so far this year and be the and it will likely be a heat wave for many of us. So remember your hot weather safety tips Drink plenty of water,wear a hat, sunscreen and light colored clothing,try to limit your time outside and take plenty of breaks if you're going to be working out in the heat. Make sure you keep checking on children And if you have animals and pets Make sure they have plenty of water available and keep them cool.

As we get close to the end of June into the first bit of July, the ridge will be breaking down We will return to cooler weather at least for a while.

06/19/2025

 Today is going to be hot muggy and stormy.

Here is the surface chart and radar

Today is hot and humid and going to get even worse. The surface chart and radar show not a lot going over the region except for a few thunderstorms and showers moving toward southwest Pennsylvania And a lot of activity north of the Canadian  border closer to that warm front. But all this is about to change.

Ahead of the approaching cold front, we're going to see storms explode across the region.
Looking at the visible satellite We can see a lot of sun over eastern Pennsylvania into eastern New York State and southern New England

The sun is going to help things become very unstable as we move through the day Setting the groundwork Severe weather.

Here is today's convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC)

The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather extending across much of new England eastern  half of New York State down to eastern Pennsylvania. With an Enhanced Risk stretching from Southeast New York State all the way down Through the I95 corridor into Virginia. 

Today temperatures will be in the upper 70s into the mid 80s across western Pirates of the region. But further east temperatures will be in the mid 80s into the 90s with very high dew points. Ahead of the strong cold front Across western parts of the region late morning into the early afternoon. The storms will go west to east today into tonight.

 Western parts of the region will face more of an isolated severe threat but any storm that does form will be capable of becoming strong to severe. The main threat will be damaging wind and heavy downpours. Rain totals of half an inch to an inch, will be capable of producing Flooding this will be a specially true over the areas In southwest Pennsylvania into western Maryland that have seen all the rain. As the storms get further east this afternoon we will see more in the way of widespread severe weather across central New York State and central Pennsylvania and points east. This will be especially true for areas closer to an along the I-95 corridor. The storms across eastern Eastern New York State and the eastern half of Pennsylvania into New England and the northern Middle Atlantic will see strong to severe storms. Here the main risk will be strong damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours, leading to a flood risk; there is a bit of a tornado risk from Western Maine down through much of New England, Eastern half of New York State into eastern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic.  The SPC has a risk at 2%. I still think the greatest chance will be over northern New York State and northern New England closer to the Saint Lawrence Valley, As they will be closer to that center of the upper level low pressure moving through Canada. 

Southeastern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, into the northern Middle Atlantic including the I-95 corridor, will see the severe  risk late this afternoon and through the evening as that cold front approaches. For areas near and around the I-95 corridor I think there's an increased risk for Microburst.

We will probably see a broken line of storms develop this afternoon into the evening There is a strong likelihood that we'll see bowing segments in this line that will lead to the risk for damaging winds as the line moves through..

The front will continue to push east tonight and tomorrow morning And should be exiting the east coast of Maine by the afternoon. Tomorrow will be cooler with less humidity, There will be a weak trough moving through that could set off a few showers here and there but most parts should be dry. On Saturday we'll see the temperatures and humidity start to edge up a little bit but it still should be fairly comfortable. Sunday will also see some low pressure moving across northern New York State and into New England this could bring some scattered rain showers into parts of New York State and New England. South of there, there will be a chance for some isolated showers but most should stay dry. Sunday will also be beginning of a lot of heat and humidity for the region. Sunday and especially Monday Tuesday into Wednesday we will see air temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s.  It will be possible  some areas could see air temperatures approach 100°F+, dewpoints are going to be in the 70s, making for heat indexes of mid 90s to over 100°F, some areas could see heat indexes over 110°F.

Update on some summer thoughts

 This will dovetail into some of my points in the daily post.

This post is going to go over the the drought conditions and how we got to this point, with all the rain as well as touch on some of my thoughts When the deals will summer Pattern.

Back in March this was the drought conditions across the United States and Northeast.

But the current US drought monitor is showing a very different story.

The Bermuda High has been very expansive extending from the central Atlantic into the southeast United States.This has pumped a lot of moisture to stream north out of the gulf of Mexico and southeast United States, keeping the The southern Plaines and East Coast very wet for the last few months. 

All of this has to do with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and the Atlantic.

There have been four prominent high pressure ridges in the Northern Hemisphere, one over Eurasia, one in the north Pacific, one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the northern Atlantic (Bermuda High)

In the above 500 millibar anomalies chart  those yellow and orange splotches in the northern hemisphere are the areas I'm talking about. All of these have been controlling Trough and bridge pattern across the northern hemisphere

On the above 925 mb we can see the predominant high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Alaska along with the Bermuda High sitting out in the Atlantic  and how all this has translated to the surface. 

June has seen the north pacific into the gulf of Alaska And North Atlantic including along the East Coast heat up a lot.

For June into July the pattern looks to have that strong high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Alaska which should looks keep the northern flow active with several short waves moving along it. The Bermuda high also looks like it's not going to be moving a heck of a lot. so I expect to see this moisture stream moving around it over the Atlantic Caribbean and Gulf then up Into Midwest and up the East Coast. This will likely lead to a general zonal flow Over the next few weeks with the moisture streaming northward the storms will have moisture to work with resulting in at least moderate amounts of rain.

The climate prediction center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook shows much of our region in the Northeast back thru Pennsylvania see above average precipitation; with areas in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England closer to the coast seeing precipitation amounts of around average. This would correlate to the pattern I've been talking about for the last few weeks and the information I went over in this post. 

We're at that point in the year where we see the atmospheric Rossby Wave length increase (become longer in duration).  Atmospheric waves are like ocean waves where the wavelength is measured from the crest of one wave to the crest of the next wave. I don't want you to confuse the terms long wave and shortwave  Short waves are the little disturbances that are inside the longer Rossby waves that circle the planet. Without getting into a lot of science Rosby waves are primary responsible for transporting the warm air in the tropics northward towards the polar regions, and sending the colder air at the poles southward towards the tropics. But they also help layout the track for the jet stream and lay down a general path for the low pressure systems that generally rotate through from west to east across North America. Longwaves move much slower compared to their shortwave counterparts. During winter when the long waves have a shorter wave length The systems move through generally faster. But during the summer when the wavelength increases systems end up generally moving slower, and can have a tendency to stay over a certain region for a longer period of time. Why is this important moving forward?

When we look back at that 500MB anomaly chart. We can see the big ridge near the gulf of Alaska, The ridge developing in the midwest that's gonna to be bringing our heat in for next week, The ridge with the Bermuda High in the Atlantic and another ridge over Eurasia. When I looked deeper at the 500 millibar pattern, There is a chance we could end up with some long way of blocking down the line, due to position and strength of that ridge sitting near Europe. Over the weekend into next week Bermuda high is going to West and become entangled with the high pressure ridge it's going to be sitting over the eastern US. We're going to have system rotating around us bridge So those along the edge could see some storminess. Inside the ridge very isolated chances for storms. Once we get into July, the location of the Bermuda High and how it behaves Will have a lot to say How  hot the northeast and Mid Atlantic get. I'm only saying there is a possibility for this to happen But if it does, and this long wave pattern slows down or even become stagnant; we could we could get locked in under a ridge for a bit maybe leading to some extended heat over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic for part of July. The odds of this occurring are higher now that we're in summer than they would be during the winter.

Here are the 3 months seasonal out books From the CPC.

I still do think the CPC is overestimating the amount of warmth we're going to see over the next 3 months. But things like the one I discussed here, could make us a little warmer than I originally thought in the summer outlook I put out a few months ago. The CPC precipitation summer outlook, I do agree more with it. I think we will see enough rain to hold off any real wide spread drought issues as we head towards the fall. But there are going to be targeted areas that might become a little dry to abnormally dry over the summer time. 

06/18/2025

 The heat is on the way!

If you've been waiting for the heat you will be happy. But if you haven't then you better find some air conditioning.

We're going to have a very strong monster ridge built into the region. But before we can get there we have to go through a couple of days of rain and storminess, as a series of fronts are going to move through region.

Here's a look at the current surface chart and radar.

Looking at the surface chart, we see that shortwave trough moving ahead of that frontal boundary that started moving north last night. The radar shows the rain showers and thunderstorms moving along and ahead of the frontal boundary. This warm front will continue to push north today and tomorrow. There will be a big temperature difference on the both sides of the boundary. To the north temperatures will be cooler. But those on the southern side of the boundary will see much warmer temperatures with rising humidity. 

As the warm front lifts through Pennsylvania clouds will be giving way to some partial sunshine during the day. So scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be breaking out along and ahead of the front, It's possible some of these will make it into southeast New York State. How severe these storms get will depend on how much sunshine we see. Later in the afternoon a line of storms could form over Southeast Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware. Some of these could be strong too severe. The main danger will be strong damaging wind gust (maybe even some microburst) and heavy downpours, There will also be a risk for some hail and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low.

The storm prediction center SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic.

They also have a marginal risk over western Pennsylvania and New York State. This afternoon into the evening Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Are gonna move over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, then they're going to the move into New York state and Pennsylvania.Some of these storms could be strong too severe, with the main danger being strong gusty winds. But heavy rain Small hail and frequent lightning could also be an issue in some of the storms.

Tonight it's going to be very warm and humid.

For Thursday we're going to see Low pressure moving into Canada Along with a cold front approaching. As this slams into the hot and muggy air mass over the region; We will see widespread rain showers  and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The storms will start in western parts of region late tomorrow morning tracking east during the day and evening. Across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic the main danger is going to be strong damaging winds, vivid lightning and heavy downpours.The tornado risk is low but not zero. But  up over parts of New York State into New England in addition to the risk for damaging wind gust, frequent lightning and heavy downpours; there will also be a greater tornado risk as they will be closer to the area of low pressure to the north; this will create enough windshear (twisting) in the air to cause a slightly better chance for a few tornadoes to appear. With the high moisture content in the air the rain will be very heavy at times This will lead to a chance for some localized flooding. This will be especially true over southwest Pennsylvania into Maryland where they've been seeing a deluge of rain over the last few days.

Currently the storm prediction SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather over the northern Middle Atlantic, eastern Pennsylvania Eastern and central New York State into New England. The Marginal Risk covers the rest of the region.

The Hail, Wind and Tornado risk From the SPC.

The front should be exiting main By the early afternoon.Behind it we will see clearing with sun breaking out from west to east.

For Friday into Saturday we will have a northwest flow that will temporarily bring in cooler (seasonal) temperatures and drive the humidity out here.

Next week we're going to have That monster ridge built into the region. The eastern half of the CONUS is going to get quite warm. It's going to be downright hot over the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. I've been talking about the coming heat for quite some time so it shouldn't be a big surprise.

Looking at the climate protection center 6-10 day outlook we can see they concur with what I've been saying.

So if you haven't run the air conditioning yet this year. You might want to put it in or check it out to make sure it's working. Because you're likely to need it.

Starting Sunday temperatures are really going to start to climb and humidity levels are going to get very high. The heat and high dew points are going to continue to climb for Monday into Wednesday. The heat for Monday and Tuesday is going to be near record to record breaking high temperatures, for this time of year. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s into the 90s with dew points in the 70s as well. Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic region will likely see a heat wave out of this, which means at least three consecutive days of 90 °F or higher temperatures. By Tuesday Parts the  I-95 corridor between Washington DC and New York city could see air temperatures up around 100°F. With the high dew points heat indexes of over 100°F are likely for many of us.  So remember to drink plenty of water and remember your hot weather safety rules. New York State and New England will also see very high temperatures It will depend on how long the temperatures hold into Wednesday for to be considered an official heat wave. But regardless it's gonna be very hot and muggy. Wednesday night and Thursday should see a cold front bringing in cooler temperatures and drive the humidity out of here.

During this time we will have systems rotating around this ring of fire that could cause a few rain showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms for far northern parts of the region during this time period.

I will be posting later today, my current thoughts on the start of summer along with the drought outlook  and how we got here.