A return to a cold and active pattern

 A quick post and discussion.

A large part of November and much of December has experienced a lot of cold weather. Also, for the last 6-8 weeks the pattern has been very active. 

Image credit Prison group at Oregon state university

The pattern looks to remain active for at least the next 2-3 weeks. The winter outlook I released a few months ago, so far has been right on the money, In the outlook, I did state that many people were gonna be surprised by how this winter unfolds and I think that has surely been the case for many of y'all. The pattern did relax for a few days heading up to Christmas and during the Christmas holiday. But that pause is now over and we're ready to see the return of the pattern we've been experiencing for the last couple of months. 

The cold has been reloading in the Northwest Territories of Canada.

Image credit tropical tidbits

The 850mb chart above shows the cold air in Northwest Territories and the cold air now sitting over the East Coast of the US. Over the next few to several weeks we are going to see bouts of cold air drop out of northwest Canada and drop into the  Great Lakes, Northeast and Middle Atlantic.

This week is going to feature a lot of lake effect falling downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario. Those areas in the snow belts that sees the lake snow are going to end up with feet of snow by Friday. Then in between the lake effect event, we are going to have an arctic front drop through on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. The arctic boundary won't extend far enough south to bring a bigger chance for snow to the region but western and northern Pennsylvania, most of New York State and much of New England will have a chance for a general 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. For southern Rhode Island, southern Connecticut, Back to New York City, Long Island, southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey there shouldn't be much of anything, except rain.

Behind this system very cold arctic air is going to set up over the region for the weekend into the 1st part of next week. We look to see another clipper dive across southeast Canada next Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a snow mix rain threat to the region. Then starting Wednesday we are going to see a shortwave in the northern stream and a disturbance in the southern stream over the Southwest. Any impacts for our region will depend on the timing between the northern and southern streams. The current pattern setup suggest that the disturbance in the southern stream isn't going to end up phasing with the northern stream energy and will end up going out to sea. But if the timing adjust enough there is a chance that the southern storm could end up coming up ahead of the trough bringing some impacts to the Middle Atlantic and parts of the Northeast for next Thursday and Friday. Right now it's a wait and see!.  Then we look to have another chance for a complex system to bring snow mix and rain to the region for the following Monday and Tuesday This disturbance will also depend on the timing between the two streams. Both of these systems have a lot of potential we just have to see if it's realized!

That's it for now!

Another storm coming out of the Great Lakes!

 The potent clipper has pushed away from the region. As far as I can tell the storm generally went as forecasted.   Now we wait for round #2. 

A very quick post on the next storm, with a touch on the lake effect!

Image credit tropical tidbits

We're going to have low pressure move into the Great Lakes, This could bomb out Over the great lakes bringing blizzard conditions to the Great Lakes into Ontario Canada. These conditions look to stay north of the border.

The area of low pressure will stay far enough north in Canada That warm air Will be able to make it further north than it did with storm #1. For most of Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware and New Jersey  this should be mainly rain. 

For western into central New York State We should see things start as a light mix in the afternoon. Then later in the afternoon and into the evening Precipitation will become harder, Before changing over to plain rain during the overnight. Precipitation will likely start across eastern New England Sunday night. Across northern New York State and northern Interior New England things will likely start out as a bit of snow Then as the warm front continues to lift through Temperatures will warm and we will see snow change over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, Before this eventually changes over to rain. Along the coast of northern new England and across southern New England this will likely start as a mix before changing over to plain rain. Icing could become a bit of an issue over northern/ northeast Pennsylvania, the eastern half of New York State and much of New England. Ice accretion of 0.05 -0.10" with local amounts of 0.20" is possible in these areas. Ontario Canada could end up with an ice storm. While most of this looks to stay north of the border, far northern New York State and far northern Vermont has a chance to see at least some of this with ice secretion of  0.25" or more possible.

Winds on Sunday and Monday will be gusty.

A sharp cold front will come through on later Monday into Tuesday and temperatures are going to crash leading to a flash freeze.  

Expect travel impacts and at least some power outages.

Lake effect snow looks to become a big issue for those downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario for Tuesday into Friday. The bands will be moving around a bit, but those who get under the most persistent and heaviest parts of the bands could end up with very significant snow amounts.

Boxing Day event

 

Most Of the precipitation shown on the leading edge on radar isn't reaching the ground due to the air being so dry. It will take a while for the air to moisten up enough for precipitation to reach the ground.

I want to clarify a little bit on the forecast I issued the other day. Generally the forecast still looks pretty good especially considering I issued it a few days ago. But the environment the clipper is moving into is complex and very volatile. So the forecast won't be perfect. In situations like this they never are. 

We are under the influence of a true arctic air mass with very cold temperatures and a lot of dry air. Coming in from the south, we are going to see the flow direct warmer and moisturized air push northward. That will come into conflict with the arctic air mass trying to push south. 

Most areas should fall generally within the parameters I've set out. But, the snow shield has expanded a little further north. When forecasting in this type of environment It's always a headache due to the likely event of mesoscale snowbands setting up. When we have two air masses like we're gonna have overhead; the two will battle it out, leading to a increase in the temperature gradient along parts of that frontal boundary. This is due to the warm air running into the cold air and lifting up and over the colder air mass. As the air rises it leads to increased and heavier precipitation. The mesoscale environment and setup means we could see several of these bands set up in various areas.  The areas that see banding could see more than I had originally thought. The very nature of this means that other areas also could see less snow accumulation than I had anticipated. The place most likely to be impacted by these changes looks to be Central New York State and areas a little north of the Mohawk Valley, over through the New York State capital district into Western Massachusetts including the Berkshires; These areas could end up seeing 3-7 inches of snow accumulation, with  locally higher amounts possible by Saturday morning. 

The models are similar in their appearance and the way they're handling the storm.

GFS

HRRR

NAM

Images credit tropical tidbits

This Boxing Day event is going to see a large variety of different precipitation types across the region. Areas like extreme southwest New York State into northwest Pennsylvania down into western Pennsylvania along the Appalachian ridge into central Pennsylvania will have a better chance of seeing an impactful freezing rain event. Areas that see the freezing rain It will be considered as rain as far as official measurement. Whereas areas that see sleet the sleet will be considered snow. So an inch of sleet would be officially measured as an inch of snow. Also anyone who sees sleet will see their forecasted snow accumulations lowered by the sleet mixing in. The reason for this has to do with water ratios and molecular density. When sleet forms it becomes ice pellets Where the water molecules are much closer together. Meaning they're more tightly packed than they would be in a snow flake. Having to keep water ration between the two the same, means when measuring what fell to the ground; we end up with less sleet accumulation than we do snow accumulation when dealing with the same amount of water in each.

We're going to see another storm event later Saturday into early Monday this too looks to be quite impactful. Then we're going to have another storm move through as we get close to New Year's.  We are not done with cold air intrusions yet as there is still plenty of cold air in the pattern We are going to see the cold air reload up in northwest Canada And end up coming back down into the Great Lakes and Northeast, As we move through January into February. As I anticipated I have seen comments that the winter cold is done, and we're gonna be dealing with above average temperatures moving forward. But winter is only less than a week old and we still have plenty of time for more cold air intrusions and storms to impact our region.

Merry Christmas!

 

It's been a few days since I posted anything but I took some time off. Anyway here is the latest On what looks to be happening this week Before I take another hiatus until after the New Year.

The surface chart in radar Show that quick moving clipper moving through the region, With some snow in the northern parts of the region and a little bit of rain over part of southern new England. Temperatures are going to warm changing the scattered snow to spotty rain over much of New York State  over to a little bit of rain and maybe some sleet and or freezing rain, While the highest elevations hang on to a little bit of the snow. Snow accumulation should be limited .  This evening and tonight  snow will continue across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine Snow will continue across Vermont New Hampshire and Maine The lower elevations could see 1 to 4 inches While the higher elevations pick up 4-8 inches. We will have an inverted trough over Maine. So you could see higher snow amounts closer to and along the MidCoast Where 8-12+ inches of snow will be possible. Temperatures will cool back down and we will Also see a bit of light lake effect snow set up downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario starting tonight Into tomorrow again accumulation shouldn't be too bad 1 to 3 inches. The clipper should be pulling away from the coast tomorrow morning.

High pressure is gonna build back in behind the clipper providing fairly tranquil conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  but we're going to have another fast moving system Move through northern parts of the region Which will allow those temperatures to get back on to the seesaw along with a chance for some light snow showers

Any left Over lake effect should end tomorrow morning, and the breeze will be lessening as colder air moves in. Then tomorrow night into Christmas morning Temperatures will be warming again Before the cold front comes back through for later Thursday into Friday cooling us back down.

After Christmas there's a chance for a couple more storms as the pattern remains active.

The first will be later Friday  into Saturday. We're going to have high pressure sitting up near James Bay. So during Christmas arctic air will move into the the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. At the same time we're going to have a disturbance dropping out of the Great Lakes and moving south and east. How this disturbance tracks will be the key onto who sees the heaviest snow. We're going to have a strong southern flow ahead of the storm across Pennsylvania into Virginia and Middle Atlantic; that's going to  run into that dome of arctic air trying to push south. Because of this, ice and sleet could become a big deal across central and southern Pennsylvania, Southwest Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh could see some freezing rain to start things off before temperatures warm and it turns over to some rain. The setup looks to favor Northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, across New York City, Long Island into southern New England and western and the southern tier of the  of New York state with chance of seeing significant snow.  Depending on how the storm tracks Boston could see a few inches of snow out of this. For Philadelphia into central  New Jersey including Baltimore you could see a couple inches of snow before a changeover to a mix and then rain. For DC and Atlantic City it looks to be chilly with mix going to just rain. North of these areas snow amounts will be dropping off.  But some of it could make it into southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire as will as Albany and areas like Syracuse.  

This all depends on the track and it's subject to change but that's the way it looks right now!

The second system will be on Sunday into Monday. Bringing snow/mix and lake effect.

This is the season of light Where we celebrate things like Christmas Hanukkah and Kwanzaa. But each of these show, It's a time of laughter joy and family. My wish to you Is that you find beauty and that all that's meaningful  brings you joy and happiness!

A quick post on the longer range!

 

Over the next few weeks we look to see ridging over the middle of the United States pushing possibly into Canada. This would set the stage for some troughing for the Northwest US into California and troughing into the Northeast US and Middle Atlantic region. We have seen  plumes of moisture (Atmospheric River) coming across the North Pacific into the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada. I think we're going to see more of these atmospheric rivers coming off the Pacific. With the pattern remaining very active in the northern jet stream, We're going to be dealing with waves of fast moving frontal systems, moving across southern Canada and the northern United States. This is going to create a cornucopia of different weather types across the northern tier of the United States.

While over the next couple of weeks a large part of the US is gonna become mild, for the Northeast US it will be a bit different It will be a bit different. While we're going to have shots of warmth We're also going to be seeing cold outbreaks as well. For our region I think overall we're gonna end up overall on the cooler side of things than not. 

The CPC is showing the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic somewhat cooler over the next 2 to 4 week. I just think it's going to be cooler than CPC is thinking.

I've been talking about the time around Christmas and a possible storm around that time.

GFS is a little faster than the EURO. The GFS shows a possible storm impacting parts of our region on Christmas day. Whereas the EURO has a storm impacting parts of the region Christmas night into the day after Christmas. 

Based on what's going on It's starting to look like Christmas Eve will be cold and dry. Also there's a chance for some snow, mix, rain later Christmas Day. The timing looks to be changing enough that a storm is possible. for the day after Christmas.

There is a chance for some kind of ice event for Pennsylvania Into the northern Middle Atlantic. With snow more likely across parts of New York State into northern and central New England.

So we could see a storm from the 24th through the 26th. It's going to come down to timing. 

12/18/2025

 

Looking at the surface chart, radar and infrared satellite.

High pressure continues to exit the region as a very strong cold front approaches the region. Ahead of the front a strong southwest flow is going to develop hiking temperatures to above average levels for today into tomorrow morning. Currently temperatures are mild and the region is dealing with a mix of sun and some clouds.

On the radar and satellite we can see the disturbance moving up out of the Midwest into the Great Lakes. As well as another disturbance in the southern stream over the Southeast US. Both of these features are going to slightly interact, which will help enhance impacts in our region.

Ahead of the cold front rain will be very heavy at times. We're also going to be seeing Embedded thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms could possibly be strong to severe. Due to the chance of winds mixing down to the surface 

Winds  of 10-30 miles an hour With gust of 40-50 even as high as 60 or 65 miles an hour. could bring down some trees and or power lines leading to scattered power outages and perhaps some damages. General rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inches with localized higher amounts possible can be expected.  Moderate to heavy rain could lead to ponding on roadways and some localized urban flooding due to clogged drains. The cold front is going to come through the region moving west to east and should be moving across Maine Friday evening and exiting the region tomorrownight.

Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to crash. They will likely fall 30-35 ° F in a few hours.  This will likely lead to a flash freeze, causing wet surfaces to ice up and turn into black ice.

on Friday, Lake effect snow first sets up east of the  lakes Erie and Ontario and then as the system pulls away these bands will shift south and east. Those who get under the most significant parts of the band could see several inches of lake snow.

After this storm leaves the region We are going to stay in an active and volatile Pattern For the next couple of weeks, As these frontal systems come through everyday or two bringing a temperature rollercoaster with chances for rain, mix and snow. I'll be posting a small update on the long range pattern later today.

Christmas Storm ... Maybe!

 

The arctic air has moved back north with mild air taking its place.

Looking at the north American 2 meter temperature anomaly we can see all the cold air is now pushed north up over central and western Canada.

As I posted earlier today We have this week cold front coming through today And then we're going to have another much stronger frontal system for late Thursday And Friday. After that We are going to have an active pattern Several of Fast moving Frontal systems coming through. Allowing for rollercoaster temperatures and chances for some snow/ice/ rain showers, but nothing too major, As the storm track is pretty far north and these systems are moisture starved. Outside of areas near the Great Lakes where they will have to deal with some lake effect, Accumulations across the rest of the region should be fairly light. 

The question is going to be about Christmas Eve and Christmas Day! I've been talking about this possible Around Christmas time event for a little while now. 

Behind a clipper system on Tuesday We're going to have high pressure build in over the region for Christmas Eve Wednesday. This will allow cold air to be moving in and over much of the region.

Both the GFS and the EURO are showing high pressure up over southeast Canada

The GFS and  EURO show that the 2 meter temperatures across New York State, New England into Pennsylvania are cold enough for snow.

Christmas Storm

The American GFS has shortwave energy moving across the middle of the United States.  With the cold air in place over the region, As this continues to slide east It would bring a chance for some snow over part of Pennsylvania into New York State and New England. The GFS is showing a moderate storm moving across the Middle Atlantic region. On the other hand,  the European EURO currently does not show the shortwave over The US. Instead it's keeping the storm track further to the north and the overall storm weaker. This would mean little to no snow for the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. But the EURO does show a shortwave disturbance moving across the Plains Just after Christmas.

We're 6-7 days out and it's typical for the models to go back and forth and waffle this far out. So right now, the pattern does support the idea of a storm. But it's going to depend on timing and track of the shortwave disturbance. For now it could go either way!

I will have more on this as we continue to get closer.

12/17/2025

 And so it starts!

The warm up has started. If you're not a fan of cold then you're very happy. But if you don't like the warmth you're not very happy at all!

Current temperatures

Here's a look at the 24 hour temperature change.

The surface chart and radar show high pressure is in control, with not a lot going on.

The surface chart also shows that area of low pressure just north of the great lakes dragging a cold front towards the region.  The infrared satellite shows clouds are pushing in Ahead of the cold front.

Today is going to be becoming milder and the region will stay generally dry, But a few scattered snow/rain showers will be possible during the afternoon. As high pressure pushes east End of cold front approaches, winds will be increasing during the day, with gust of 20-30 miles an hour. With the temperatures warming We will see some snow melt bringing the possibility of localized fog this evening and during the overnight tonight. As that weak cold front Moves through tonight Temperatures will cool back off a bit. Leading to the possibility of some black ice; so be careful if you're out driving around. The infrared satellite also shows a disturbance up over the Rockies That will be impacting our weather Thursday late afternoon and Friday!

Ahead of this we're going to see a strong southwest flow warm our temperatures up quite a bit, Temperatures will be above average for the first time in a few weeks. Winds of 10-30 miles an hour will be across the region With gust We've gust of 40-50 miles an hour, There could be even locally higher cost 60-65 miles an hour especially in the higher elevations. With the strong wind will be the danger of some localized power outages. Ponding on the road and some urban flooding is going to be likely with the snow melt and warm temperatures.

The strong area of low pressure Is going to push across southern Canada; ahead of the strong cold front widespread moderate to heavy rain will roll west to east across the region, with the front we will likely see some embedded thunderstorms, So don't be surprised if you hear some thunder. The front should be exiting Maine by Friday evening. 

Behind the cold front much colder air is gonna stream back into the region for Friday afternoon and Saturday. Winds will also still be very gusty. As the temperatures tumble wet surfaces will become coated with ice; so black ice will once again be an issue. This is a fast moving system So most won't see Much in the way of accumulating snow, with just scattered snow showers and flurries around. But downwind of the Great Lakes lake effect snow is gonna start back up again. With several inches possible under the most persistent bands.

12/16/2025

 

This week most of the CONUS  is dealing with a zonal flow. So our region is going to be generally milder for the next few days. 

The surface chart shows high pressure is nosing in out of the Ohio valley. Satellite and radar is showing away from the Great Lakes most of the region is seeing a lot of sun and is dry; around great lakes they are experiencing clouds and the lake effect has pushed north and is mostly in Canada or out over lake Ontario. If you step out today you will notice the temperatures are a bit milder than they have been.

The region has been so cold So long, that today and tomorrow it's gonna feel like beach weather. But in actuality these temperatures are considered seasonal across the region for this time of year. Wednesday the high pressure is going to be moving off shore.

Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front a strong southwest flow means temperatures are going to finely climb to above average. But these warm temperatures aren't going to stick around for long.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Rain is going to start late Thursday afternoon and work it's way west to east Thursday night into Friday morning. Don't be surprised if there are some embedded thunderstorms as well.  This is gonna be a fast moving system so it'll be pushing out of most of the region Friday morning into the early afternoon. With Maine dealing with the rain during the day, with rain ending Friday evening. General rainfall amounts across the region will be 0.5" - 1 .0". But there could be localized lower amounts of maybe around 0.25" and localized higher amounts that get up around  1.5" to 2 .0". The mild conditions along with the rain will lead to snow melt. While I don't expect a lot of flooding; there could end up being some ponding on the roadways or even some minor street and urban flooding due to clogged storm drains. Another thing to keep in mind is the possibility of heavy localized fog due to the melting snow.

The one thing we have to be on the lookout for Strong winds that could even be damaging in some areas. Winds of 10 to 20 miles an hour with wind gust of 30-50 miles an hour and localized wind gust of maybe as much as 60-65 mph will be possible. Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to plunge. With the wet roads black ice is gonna be a concern, as temperatures freefall.

It will continue to be windy on Friday; along with a chance for a few snow showers and or flurries away from the Great Lakes. Those around the great lakes would be dealing with more lake effect that could drop several inches of snow. Saturday Is looking like a more in the way of a tranquil day but lake effect will continue to be an issue for those downwind of the big lakes.

Sunday we will see another clipper move across Canada. This will drive another cold front allowing temperatures to once again get very cold Sunday night and Monday. With the front there will be a chance for a few snow showers and flurries. Then on Tuesday a stronger cold front comes through bringing snow showers and or rain showers.

For Christmas week 

A large part of New York State; as well as northern and central New England will continue to see shots of cold air Scooting across the region. But for Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Delaware, New Jersey And into southern New England temperatures will average a little warmer, as you will be closer to that southern ridge. It's not going to be what I would consider a blowtorch. But it will be warm enough for rain or a mix. There is a good chance that y'all who do not have a deeper snow pack are going to lose most or all of your snow I would say this would be a especially true for those who have less than a 6"  snow pack

For Monday into Tuesday we will have a cold front bringing a shot of colder air. Then for Tuesday into Wednesday we're going to have another cold front approach and move through. This is going to allow colder air to move into the region. Just after this cold air comes into the region we are going to see a short wave disturbance heading north and east towards our region. How far north does disturbance track is the big question. If it tracks far enough south With the cold air in place There is a good chance for a snowstorm Christmas Eve and or Christmas Day. If the storm track is further north Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic would have less of a chance of seeing snow. So for now, I think A large part of New York State and northern and central New England have a fairly decent shot at seeing some kind of fresh snow on the ground  around Christmas Day.