10/07/2025

 The Rain is moving through!

The super warmth we've been experiencing is on its way out; while the slow moving cold front bringing cooler weather is on its way in. The surface chart shows The high pressure giving way to the approaching cold front coming in from the west. Ahead of this cold front we have rain showers with embedded thunderstorms tracking across western parts of the region. 

That breezy southwest flow will bring in warmer temperatures and humidity ahead of the cold front. The scattered showers are approaching Central parts of the region, As the afternoon goes on the scattered rain activity will become more steady with isolated thunderstorms. The rain and thunderstorms will make it into eastern New York State and the Hudson Valley mid to late afternoon. As things progress, the scattered rain and a few thunderstorms will be moving into western New England late this afternoon, with rain becoming more steady tonight. The rain will start moving into the lehigh valley and northern middle Atlantic this evening into the overnight. The rain looks to arrive across eastern new England tonight and through the overnight. Tonight rain will be lessening and coming to an end west to east starting in western New York state western Pennsylvania then by tomorrow mid-afternoon the rain should be ending across eastern new England.

The thunderstorms today and this evening should be none severe. Light to moderate and occasionally heavy rain will add up to generally a half inch to an inch. But some of us will see a quarter of an inch of rain. While others could experience an inch and a half or so.

Behind the departing cold front We will see high pressure move in out of Canada This will set up over the region for most of Wednesday and over Thursday and Friday. Keeping us dry with below average temperatures for this point in October. The Columbus day weekend is looking to remain chilly. But what ultimately happens over the weekend will be determined by a low pressure system that will develop over Southeast Coast.

We have an upper level low developing across Kansas near the Ozarks. This is going to track south and east towards the Southeast Coast. The ULL will be interacting with tropical moisture that will be working into the Bahamas. For Saturday We are going to have the high pressure sitting around northern New England with that developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast, that will start to move north. Between these two it will be quite breezy on Saturday for New Jersey,  Maryland and Delaware. Sunday we'll see this onshore flow get even stronger especially for the northern Middle Atlantic Coast into the southern New England Coast.

As the low slides north over the Gulf Stream It will strengthen, there is a chance it could develop tropical characteristics or even become tropical storm Karen at some point. I think the odds of this becoming a warm core tropical system are fairly low,but the chance is there. That high pressure up over New England That looks to retrograde south and east by Monday will likely allow this to stay off shore but close enough to bring the potential for some heavy rain for the Outer Banks, Delmarva Peninsula over the weekend. Rainfall of 3-6 inches will be possible over the weekend from the coastal Carolinas up through the Delmarva Peninsula .  Depending on the timing and speed of the slide south and west of the high pressure will determine if the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic, Southeast Pennsylvania and southern new England see any heavier rain out of this on Monday. Regardless of development This will bring the risk for high surf, some coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Tropical storm Jerry

As of 11AM, Jerry has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1006 Mb, Tracking west at 24 mph.

Jerry Looks fairly healthy on satellite.

The condition support further development of Jerry. As I said yesterday Jerry should pass north and east of the Leeward islands But it could come fairly close to places like the US Virgin Islands. By Wednesday of next week there is a strong chance that Jerry could obtain hurricane status. High surf and rip currents will again become an issue for the East Coast.

Image credit Tomer Burg

Right now Jerry looks to stay well east of the East Coast of the United States. But those in Bermuda will have to keep a close eye on Jerry. As he could pass just to the east of the island.

That's it for now

10/06/2025

 Warm first half cool second half.

Today is going to be another very warm one, But perhaps a bit cooler than yesterday, where many of y'all broke or at least tied record highs. The strengthening southwest flow will bring in a bit more humidity than we've been seeing, But it still won't feel too bad.

Radar shows the entire region is dry; this should remain the case for the entire day over the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic.  The surface chart is showing that approaching cold front over the upper Great Lakes and Midwest, with the rain ahead of it. 

Satellite shows Most of the region is see clear skies. But we do have some clouds over New Jersey back into Delaware that are in the process of burning off.

So today is going to be a very tranquil summer like day. But that will be changing for tomorrow into Wednesday. Tonight we will see clouds increasing west to east As that cold front gets closer. Ahead of the cold front winds will become a bit breezy. The cold front will start to bring rain Into western New York State and western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. As the front continues to move in rain will become steady over western parts of the region . The rain and thunderstorms will reach into central parts of New York State and into central Pennsylvania late morning into the afternoon, Rain will become more steady later in the day into the evening.  As the rain showers with some embedded thunder continues to work its way northwest to southeast It will move into eastern New York state Tuesday Tuesday evening and reach into South east Pennsylvania Lehigh Valley, into Maryland and Delaware Tuesday night. The rain showers with possibly some thunder we'll move across western new England Tuesday night into the overnight. The thunderstorms on Tuesday should be non severe but they could bring some locally heavy rain. The rain showers look to make it into eastern New England and places like Boston Wednesday morning. The rain over eastern New England and parts of the northeastern Middle Atlantic will be winding down by mid to late afternoon.

Most of y'all will see a general rainfall amount of a quarter of an inch to possibly as much as an inch of rain. Those who see any heavier downpours could see a bit more than that. This won't be a drought buster by any means but any rain is welcome.

Wednesday high pressure will start to build in behind a departing cold front. Temperatures will be cooling off quite a bit behind the cold front This area high pressure will be in control of our weather for Thursday and Friday, providing cool fall like temperatures and sunny mainly clear skies. Then on Friday night we will be watching Low pressure To our south coming up along the Coast. Depending on how this tracks It could bring some rain to parts of the region for Saturday and especially on Sunday. Monday would see low pressure hanging out and bring a chance for lingering rain across the Middle Atlantic into New England. Of course if this low pressure tracks to the east rainfall would be fairly scattered; if it does track west we could end up with the Middle Atlantic into southern New England seeing more in the way of substantial rainfall. Rainfall over the interior parts of the Northeast for Sunday and Monday will depend on how this low ends up tracking.

Tropical Atlantic

Invest 95L

Is still somewhat disorganized on satellite. But it is looking a little better each day.The National Hurricane Center has 2 day development odds of 50% and 7 day development odds of 70%.

Image credit Tomer Burg

I-95L is moving west northwest across the Central Atlantic. It should be approaching the northern Leeward islands Thursday or Friday. The question is will this move over the Leeward islands or recurve and stay just northeast of the islands. Right now the cold front and trough that will be dropping through our region tomorrow and Wednesday will continue to move south and so the odds favor this recurve keeping it north and east away from the islands. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

The conditions 95L is moving through do favor gradual development and this could be come a tropical depression or even tropical storm Jerry by the time we get near the weekend. If this does indeed recurve there is a chance it could become a hurricane early next week. There is some potential for 95L to possibly become a major hurricane at some point. Due to that trough over the eastern US I don't think this is going to pose any risk other than some rip currents and higher surf to the East Coast of the United States.

10/05/2025

 A look at the upcoming week and the tropics

Yesterday, was a great day to get outside and enjoy the fall weather and today is going to be a mirror image with very mild conditions and lots of sunny skies. While the weekend is warm the humidity is going to stay fairly low.

The high pressure sitting near the Coast is going to weaken and start to slide east on Monday. This will allow for a stronger southwest flow that will allow even warmer temperatures and increased humidity back into the region. Many parts of the region desperately need rain. Unfortunately tomorrow is looking to stay dry.

The dry conditions will come to an end on Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure continues to pull away with a cold front approaching to our northwest; increasing the breezy southwest flow allowing even warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels into the region. Tuesday as the cold front approaches and moves northwest to southeast over Western parts of the region, clouds will be increasing and widespread scattered rain showers are possible mid to late morning for western New York State into Northwest Pennsylvania. The rain showers will work into central parts of New York State and southwest into central Pennsylvania during the afternoon. The setup supports isolated thunderstorms. General rainfall amounts look to be a quarter to half an inch. But those who see the heavier downpours Might see upwards of around one inch of rain. The rain looks to make it into eastern New York state and eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday evening. The cold front will continue to move southeast advancing the rain during the overnight into Wednesday. While the rain is ending over New York State, Pennsylvania western New England on Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. The rain will be continuing over eastern New England into the northern middle Atlantic Wednesday morning into the  afternoon before ending. Any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday should be none severe. General rainfall amounts over New England and in northern Middle Atlantic region should be the same as it was for New York and Pennsylvania being a quarter of to half an inch with some areas seeing perhaps an inch or so in heavier downpours. The rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday isn't going to be a drought buster. But any rain is welcome!

As the cold front and trough continue to work their way east Thursday and friday. we'll see high pressure building overhead bringing mostly dry conditions and very cool temperatures with low humidity levels. The same general conditions will extend into the weekend and likely for the start of next week

Tropical Atlantic:

There are 2 areas of interest that the national hurricane center is watching. The first area is a tropical wave in the Atlantic that the national hurricane center is giving 40% odds of this developing over the next 2 days and a 70% chance over the next 7 days. This broad area of low pressure has been given the designation Invest 95L. Warm sea surface temperatures And atmospheric conditions Are conducive for further development as this moves across the Atlantic. 95L could be a proteins for the Leeward islands as we head towards this weekend. If this gets a name It will be named Jerry.

The other area in the north central Gulf of America off the Coast of Louisiana, has 2 day and 7 day odds of development at 0%. This should continue to drift north and west. The system is dealing with strong upper level wind shear so this shouldn't develop into anything But it will bring rainfall to Texas. When it reaches the coast sometime tomorrow.

10/03/2025

 The next few days are going to be fantastic!

High pressure is in control providing plenty of sun and light and variable winds. Temperatures today are warmer than they were yesterday. 

The jet stream is well to our north So the pattern over the CONUS is fairly stagnant. This will keep our weather dry and quiet for the next four days or so. The infrared satellite shows there's basically nothing going on over the eastern 2⁄3 of the United States.

Tomorrow will continue to be tranquil as the high pressure starts to drift further east an increasing southwest flow will allow temperatures to become quite mild for this time of year. Sunday will be more of the same with temperatures warming up even more. So if you want to enjoy the nice weather I would advise you to get outside and spend some time there.

Monday is going to see a breezy southwest flow driving in even warmer temperatures And humidity. Monday is looking dry for the entire region. Then for Tuesday We will have a frontal system approaching This will allow clouds to start increasing west to east across the region. Winds on Tuesday are still going to be breezy Keeping us quite warm and feeling a bit muggy. Rain showers will start to move into western parts of the region later in the morning. The rain will continue to move west to east across Pennsylvania and New York state during the afternoon into the evening. The actual cold front Will move through Very late Tuesday and through Wednesday. Keeping things breezy and bringing a better chance for widespread scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. Wednesday we'll see clearing develop west to east across the region. With most of the precipitation ending Wednesday night across eastern parts of our region. High pressure is gonna move in overhead for Thursday and Friday temperatures will be rather cool once again.

Tropics

We had a couple post tropical cyclones In the north Atlantic. But those are gone, We do have a couple of areas that the national hurricane center is interested in The 1st is the disturbance near the Bahamas. The NHC is giving this 2 day and 7 day chances for development of 10%. Then we have that area that just came off the West Coast of Africa. The NHC is giving this a 50% chance of developing over the next 7 days.

We are now in the second half of the hurricane season moving past the peak. The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will have to be watched as there's a chance it could approach and get into the Caribbean by next weekend around October 11th. The conditions aren't  all that favorable right now. But the Madden Julian Oscillation is going to be moving into a more favorable phase by the middle of next week.  So slow and gradual development is possible as this works its way across the Atlantic.

The disturbance closer to home, Is dealing with a lot of wind shear So this doesn't have much of a chance of developing. But it will be a big  rainfall maker for southern and eastern Florida over the weekend.

Have a great weekend!

10/02/2025

 Here are the current surface chart and radar.

Both of these high pressure is moving in overhead to take control of pattern for the next several days. The next several days are going to remain dry. Satellite is showing mostly clear skies across the region. But there are high level clouds over the northern Middle Atlantic

Today is gonna stay cool But tonight won't get as cold as we saw last night. After a cooler start, Temperatures are going to start to recover tomorrow as the high pressure overhead slowly starts to drift east, with some southernly winds pushing in the warmer temperatures. Over the weekend The high pressure will continue to slide to the east This will create a stronger southwest flow Which will allow temperatures to climb to above average levels for both Saturday and Sunday, Both days are going to be completely dry. For Monday With the high pressure sitting off the coast We will have a breezy southwest flow that's really gonna drive our temperatures  to well above average. On Tuesday we're going to be watching a cold front approach out of Canadaanada. Scattered rain showers will be possible ahead of this front over western into central parts of Pennsylvania And New York state. Away from this area shower chances will be more isolated. The actual cold front Will come through on Wednesday bringing widespread scattered showers Along with a chance for a few thunderstorms to the region. For Thursday High pressure will move back in overhead turning off the water works and returning us to dry conditions. We are going to cool off behind the cold front to average to below average temperatures for early October.

Tropical Atlantic:

Currently Imelda Imelda has maximum stain wins of 75 mph with a central pressure of 980MB. Imelda is pulling away from a direct hit on the British territory of Bermuda late last night into the overnight. When she hit Bermuda She was in the process of turning post tropical, So that lessened her impact somewhat. After lashing the island as a category 2 hurricane.   Imelda is racing east northeast at 29 mph and is now a post tropical system. Humberto has dissipated after passing well west and north of Bermuda. Both of these systems will merge and be carried by the trough north and east Where they will hit Ireland and the UK tomorrow as a powerful extra tropical system.

There are two other areas in the Atlantic that the national hurricane center is interested in. The first is an area that will be moving off the west coast of Africa. Currently the NHC is giving this low development odds of 20% over the next 7 days. We're at the end of what's considered the Cabo Verde season (when tropical waves roll off the West Coast of Africa Eastern Atlantic and worked into the western Atlantic and work their away across into the western Atlantic and Caribbean). So the odds are very much against this developing into anything, but we will see! The other area of interest is Near the remnants of an old front off the east coast of Florida. National hurricane center Is giving this 2 day and 7 day odds of 10% concurrently. This will more than likely be a big rainmaker for Florida. But we were at that time of year when we look closer to home for hurricane development. So it's worth keeping an eye on.

Northeast drought:

The region dead sea some beneficial rainfall last week. But the nature of the rainfall Meant that many areas Didn't see as much rain as other areas. The drought monitor released today.

Shows some slight improvements over parts of Pennsylvania And around the Central Hudson Valley In New York State. The rest of the region Saw no change With Western New York State, parts of New England and northern Middle Atlantic seeing conditions become worse.

Today's drought monitor shows 7% of the northeast is in extreme drought 19% in severe drought,  with 24% in moderate drought and 43% under abnormally dry conditions. This compares to 7% being under extreme drought, 19% In severe drought, 27% Under moderate drought and 39% abnormally dry for last week.

The developing winter pattern.

I wanted to go into a bit more depth on all of this And show more data. But due to the government shutdown, a lot of the data sites are down. So this will have to do. Depending how long this government shut down last will determine when I can post next; It could be at least a few weeks before I'm able to post another winter update!

Global water temperatures as of 30 September, 2025

We still have all that warm water in the North Pacific. These very warm sea surface temperatures (SST s) stretch from Canada all the way over to Asia. This has been Causing ridgeing which is deflecting the Pacific jet to the north. With the northern jet further  north, than typical for this time of year. It has all the cold  locked up over the Arctic due to the stronger than average polar vortex. 

Over the last 4 or 5 years We've had very warm water temperatures across the North Pacific. Here is a composite of the last 4 years. Compared to the 20 year average.These SST anomalies are well above average.

When we compare this to the 2 meter surface temperatures across north America we see there's a lot of warming across all of Canada and 2⁄3 of the United States. This is the result of the same process that I talked about above. Where we have that northern jet further north due to the ridge setting up over the Aleutians. Which alters the jet stream pattern damming up the cold air to our north.

Over the last few weeks we've had persistent troughing sitting in a Gulf of Alaska. 

But currently we are going to have the troughing work its way East. As strong ridgeing sets up over the Gulf of Alaska.

This is going to weaken the Polar Vortex which will allow that cold air that's locked up over the arctic to drift down into the mid latitudes. You can see that process in these Stratophere Images.

All of this is going to lead to the pattern change that I talked about today in the daily weather briefing. 

Ice and snow extant:

The last couple weeks have been quite cold in Siberia into northern Alaska. The cold is allowing snow to build across Siberia. As of October 1st snow extent across Siberia is well above average. This is going to help build that land bridge for the cold to extend across the Bering Strait into North America. The summer melt season in the Arctic is over. We're now starting to grow back sea ice. Right now, the ice extent in the Bering Sea is at its highest extent compared to the last few years that we've seen at this point in the season.

At this point in the season, arctic sea ice extent is much closer to northern Alaska than it has been in several years. This is good news if you want to see a cold winter here in the Northeast.

With that ridge up into Alaska, Alaska will warm up. We're going to see the cold air that's been bottled up in the north slide down that ridge/trough axis. The cold is going to move into the northwestern US and the northern Rockies and then come east into the central and eastern parts of the United States. As I said in my earlier post today that looks to happen around October 15th. I expect to see a snowstorm develop in the northern Rockies October 12 through maybe October 14th. If this happens it means I have a very good handle on the current developing winter pattern. While here in the  Northeast we won't be seeing snow that early; but the stage is being set for what's going to happen down the road. While Alaska is going to see warming temperatures; it still looks to stay cold over Siberia. Which will continue to add to that snow allowing the ice to continue to expand. Which will orchestrate a better chance to build cold into Canada as well as the central and eastern United States as we move further into October.

10/01/2025

 October starts out coolish.

The surface chart Shows the stationary frontal boundary off the Coast directing the hurricanes away from the coast. Radar and the visible satellite show The region is dry with most of the region seeing clear skies; but there are variable clouds along the southern New England Coast down into of the Middle Atlantic. As well as up over Maine.

The surface chart Shows high pressure Is centered up in Canada This is directing a northeast flow down into the northeast and northern middle Atlantic Which is allowing the temperatures to be cool, generally below average for this time of year. Tonight it's gonna feel downright cold, expect to have to wear a sweater or a jacket if you're gonna be out and about. Tomorrow is going to be generally the same dry conditions and  slightly below average temperatures.  The typical higher elevations could see some frost over the next couple of mornings. So if you have sensitive plants make sure you take care of them.

Then on Friday the high pressure will be overhead, We're going to See dry and tranquil conditions. Along with this, we will start to see a southernly flow that will start us warming up for Friday afternoon.  Over the weekend as the high pressure starts to drift east more in the way of a southwest flow is going to develop and warm us up to above average temperatures for this time of year. The entire weekend is going to be dry. We have all just dry weather; the drought conditions are going to continue to expand across the region. I will discuss the drought tomorrow when the drought monitor comes out. 

Monday As the high pressure continues to pull away A stronger southwest flow will create breezy conditions and continue the warm up. Monday looks dry for the entire region. But we will be watching a cold front approach. It's possible a few isolated rain showers could break out over far western parts of New York State into northwest Pennsylvania Late Monday night or Monday overnight. The cold front is going to move through  for Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold front is going to be rather weak And moisture starved But it will bring more in the way of widespread scattered rain showers across the region. The cold front is going to put an end to the above average temperatures as cooler air sinks in out of Canada behind it. Behind this cooling; we could see another warm up; before we get closer to the middle of the month and a pattern change looks to develop that will bring us much cooler temperatures for the second half of March.

Tropics

Humberto is post tropical With maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, Minimum central pressure of 980MB and tracking east northeast at 23 mph . Imelda Imelda is a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, minimum central pressure of 966MB. She is galloping east northeast at 20 mph heading straight for Bermuda. Her winds have not caught up to the pressure drop.  So further strengthening is possible today. Later tonight into tomorrow morning she could be a strong category  2 or maybe a weak category 3 as she slams into Bermuda. 

As Imelda Heads east of Bermuda She is going to absorb what's left of Humberto. Then Humberto and Imelda  are going to end up merging with the trough; that kicked them away from the East Coast of the United States. Then all of this is going to impact northern Europe Friday and Saturday as a powerful extra tropical mid level cyclone.