Valentine's day weekend storm?

 Looking at the current surface chart radar in satellite

We have a series of troughs moving across the region Downwind of of the Great Lakes and a few scattered to isolate snow showers or flurries elsewhere. Under the band's 1-3 inches is possible.

Temperatures today will be another cooler than they were yesterday. With winds of 10-15 miles an hour with some gusts of 20-30 miles an hour possible.

For Friday we're going to have high pressure centered near the Ohio valley. This is gonna provide plenty of sunshine and temperatures will be similar to today but most likely slightly warmer. Later friday a clipper could bring a bit of snow across New York State into new England. On Saturday this area of high pressure is going to drift overhead and end up off the Southeast coast. The clockwise flow around the area high pressure will allow warmer air to work into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast.  For the first time in a while temperatures are going to end up around seasonal to slightly above average for this time of year.

On Sunday we're going to see an area of low pressure over the southern US. As I've been saying The pattern is super progressive and we have a fast flow.  Because of this It still  looks like we're not going to see a phase between the northern energy and the southern energy in the subtropical jet. So this is going to most likely head out to sea. The Southern component could clip the northern Mid Atlantic region with a little rain I can't rule out A few snowflakes or even a bit of a mix over parts of southern Pennsylvania into New Jersey. But any accumulations would be around a dusting I'm not expecting much more than that.   The Northern component could bring a little bit of snow to the northern parts of the region. Any snow showers or flurries should be fairly light. I'm thinking accumulations would be a dusting to perhaps an inch. Northern Maine could pick up a bit more than that.

I'm using these model images to try to give you a visual of what I've been talking about for the last few days.

These 500MB images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

The first image shows the trough dropping into the west coast

The next couple of images show the energy In the southern sub tropical jet moving across the CONUS. We also see that energy in the northern jet moving across Southern Canada and the northern US

The next image shows the southern system approaching the Southeast. While the northern system is pushing through the Great Lakes heading towards the Northeast

This is a image shows both systems pushing east with a lot of space between them. So there is no phase at least in time to bring the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic a major storm.

The GFS and the EURO are now quite similar in appearance when looking at the impacts from both of these systems as they move through the region.

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Behind this weekend storm we're going to enter a warming trend for next week.

This February thaw will allow some snow melt and could lead to some  ice dam flooding. With the reintroduction of some rain back in the general forecast We will have to be mindful of storm drains and some flooding possibilities. As I've been saying for quite some time we are going to see a cool down again come back into the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic as we get towards the end of February.

Thats it for today!