Unsettled week ahead!

 Today

We have the backdoor cold front I talked about last week, dropping south and west out of New England, and is currently setting over New York State and Pennsylvania. the front will produce variable cloud cover with scattered showers.  Tonight the front will stall over the region with the continued threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for strong storms over western New York State

The winds will become southernly, this will allow for warmer and more humid conditions across the region.

Rest of the Week

 

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the dew points will continue to climb. This will increase the thunderstorm risk, for tomorrow thru Thursday. The temperatures and humidity will feel like Mid-August, in spite of it being meteorological fall.   

For Tuesday and Wednesday, we will be dealing with a semi-stationary frontal boundary. Both days will feature variable clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. Here’s a look at the SPC convective outlooks for both days. 

The primary threats will be strong damaging winds, large hail, along with the threat for heavy downpours, bringing a localized flooding risk.  There will also be a low-end tornado risk.  

 On Thursday scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a cold front clearing through Thursday. Some of these storms will be severe. The severe risk will extend into Friday for southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. As a trough sets up over the region and pushes the storm track south. Again, the main risk will be damaging winds and hail.  The farther north you are (New York State and New England) the better your chance of seeing partly to mostly sunny skies. SPC day 4 and day 5. 

Behind the front we will see a drier and comfier pattern setup for the Labor Day holiday weekend. We will be dealing with some troughing for Saturday and Sunday, which could bring some isolated showers. But right now, both days are looking mostly dry and pleasant. High pressure looks to move in overhead for Sunday night and Labor Day Monday.

 Tropics

Remnants of Dolly

We still have the remnants of Dolly out in the Caribbean. There is a chance what’s left of Dolly will move into the eastern Gulf for Wednesday into the end of the coming week. Where it would have a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 10%

Invest 97L is now Potential Tropical Depression 5.

 It looks very impressive on satellite imagery, but it is still a tropical wave that is still developing, The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds of development at 80%. #5 is tracking west northwest in the direction of the Upper Texas Coast at 5 mph. The Min pressure is 1013mb, max sustained winds are 35 mph. The lack of a center means, the actual track is uncertain.  So, the upper Texas coast southwest Louisiana will have to keep a close eye on #5. Right now, this is a disturbance producing a lot of rain.

#5 looks to make a landfall tomorrow into early Wednesday

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

There isn’t going to be a lot of time for development, but a tropical storm or even the slight possibility of a hurricane can’t be ruled out. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding with 3 to 6 inches likely and the potential for 6 to 12 inches of rain for some. 

The next name on the list is Edouard

 Have a great rest of your day!

Here we go again!

 

As I said during this week, the high-pressure heat dome out west, was going to shift east. So, while it cools off in the west; the east is going to heat up!

 The heat dome is shifting eastward out of the Plains. By later Sunday into Monday the heat will be impacting the Ohio Valley across Pennsylvania into the Mid-Atlantic for the first part of next week. These areas will see temperatures in the 90’s, the higher humidity will make for high heat indexes.  Northward across the rest of the Northeast, it will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80’s.

As we saw with the last bout of heat a few weeks ago. Along the northern edge of that heat dome there will be showers and thunderstorms around it out of the northern Plains that will drop through the Upper Midwest, into the Northeast into New England. So, of these could be stronger thunderstorm complexes.

 

 

 

0-5 day

5-10 day

10-15 day

Over the next few weeks, lack of persistent blocking south of Alaska, means the pattern is going to be flip flopping around. But this is typical of Fall.  

We’re in a strong El Nino that continues to strengthen. When we look back at 6 past strong to very strong El Nino’s, a September pattern shows up.  

Generally, the Southern and Central Plains up into the Northeast tended to be slightly warmer than average. So, we’re going to continue to see a back and forth between heat and cool, with generally milder than average temperatures overall.

The Southeast up and northern Middle Atlantic up into the Northeast trends drier than average.

This would indicate that the southern jet will become quite active during September, allowing disturbances to move across the south and then recurve up into the Middle Atlantic  

Tropical

What’s left of Dolly, is approaching the northeastern Caribbean, the remnant wave are still battling widespread dry air and strong wind shear. This will bring needed rain to the Leeward Islands into tomorrow, then tomorrow afternoon into Sunday night, it will move into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto. After that is could bring rain showers to Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. There is a chance once this moves north of Hispaniola it could redevelop due to lower windshear and warmer SST, but she will likely be completely disrupted by then.  But the odds are low, the NHC is giving it 10% odds of this happening.

 That weak area of low pressure is called Invest 97L. This looks to drift west with showers and gusty conditions along the Gulf Coast. The odds of this developing is very low due to wind shear and land interaction.  The NHC is giving it 7-day development odds of 20%.

A big pattern Shift as heat expands east.

 

We’re going to see deep troughs build into the Pacific Northwest and western U.S. While the ridge expands into the Southeast U.S.

 

Yesterday was an active severe weather day. With most likely at least three tornadoes. National Weather Service will be sending a survey crews to determine if they were indeed tornadoes.

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

Today

We have that upper-level low sitting up over Hudson Bay, this is going to be slowly rotating east along with a few short waves that will come through from time to time over the next 2 to 3 days.

We have the cold front moving across the region, it will continue to move into New England this afternoon, with some scattered showers and storms. Behind the front it will be a cooler and less humid day, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. It should stay dry for y’all behind the front.  Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon could be on the strong to severe side. The SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms across part of Maine and southern New Jersey, Delaware, and central and southern (eastern) Maryland. The major risk will be strong damaging winds and heavy downpours, but there could also be small hail, and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is very low, but it’s never zero.  

The weekend

The high pressure to our west will build in behind the front. This high pressure will stick around through most of the Weekend.  Saturday will see mostly dry conditions with temperatures average to slightly below average, but a few pop-up rain showers will be possible, but most won’t see them. But on Sunday temperatures will start to climb as the heat ridge expands eastward. Starting Sunday evening, a few showers will move into far western parts of the region. These showers will expand eastward during the overnight hours.

 

Next Week

For the first half of next week, we will see the return of higher heat and humidity. There will be a back door cold front over New England trying to push south and west. But with the warm front pushing into the region. The cold front won’t gain much traction.  which would allow for a return to some higher levels of humidity and the threat for showers. Then on Tuesday the warm front wins the battle and pushes into the rest of the region. There will be scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms, right now those with the best chance of seeing strong to severe storms will be over New England. Wednesday we will have a frontal boundary hanging around, keeping things unsettled. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of next week. Thursday will see a cold front move across the region, this will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms will be strong to severe.  Behind the front much cooler and less humid air will move in for Friday, as Canadian high pressure builds in.  We look to have troughing hanging around for the Labor Day Weekend, keeping things unsettled.

 

Tropics

Dolly, the fourth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, has succumbed to the wind shear and dry air and has been downgraded; as she has transitioned to an open wave.  Her remnants will bring rain for the Lesser Antilles, some of this rain could make it into the Vergin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late Sunday and Monday.

 

Have a great weekend!

The Tropical Atlantic and Northeast drought.

 

Tropics

Invest 96L is now Tropical Storm Dolly!

The National Hurricane Center this morning increased 96L’s development odds to 90%. Then at the 11:00 am update, they named it Dolly, becoming the Atlantic hurricane season’s 4^th named system. She has max sustained winds of 40 mph, a min central pressure of 1007 mb.

On Satellite we can see her center is nearly exposed, with most of the convection (thunderstorms) displaced to the south of the center. This is the result of that dry air and northerly wind shear.

The forecast track cone from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Dolly tracking west at 24 mph. Dolly will have a fairly short life thanks to the strong wind shear she will run into this weekend around the Caribbean. The NHC forecast has her remain a tropical storm for the few days; before dissipating as she gets near the northern Leeward Islands.

These satellite images come from Mikes Weather Page … A very good tropical site!

 

 Looking at the Dvorak image we can get a good look at Dolly’s core.

 

Drought

 

 

Write up from the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

“The U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, August 27 showed drought and/or abnormally dry conditions improve in the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New York. However, conditions deteriorated in northern New England and central New York. There were generally limited changes elsewhere in the region.

Severe and/or moderate drought was reduced in West Viriginia and along a path from the Delmarva Peninsula to New York’s Long Island but expanded in Maine and Vermont.

Abnormal dryness was erased from parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southeastern New York, and central New Hampshire but spread in places like central New York, eastern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire.

Record-low seven-day streamflow was confined to only a few spots in coastal New Jersey, New York’s Long Island, and central Maine.

Seven-day streamflow was below normal or lower in coastal New Jersey, eastern Massachusetts, central and northern New York, and much of northern New England.

Groundwater levels were record low in several areas including central and southern Maryland, parts of New Jersey, southeastern Massachusetts, and southern Maine.

The short-term outlooks September 1-9 predict near- or above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the Northeast, which could potentially bring improvements to locations that see notable rainfall amounts or keep conditions unchanged in areas that see less.”

A muggy and stormy day ahead!

 Surface chart and radar.

  

 

Today

Yesterday’s high pressure has moved east and is off the Coast. Behind it southwest winds with gust of 25 to 30 mph possible. All of this is driving in warmer and more humid air into the region. This is ahead of the cold front advancing out of the Ohio Valley, this afternoon waves of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across New York State and Pennsylvania. The front will be moving west to east and will be approaching and moving through New England this evening and the first part of the night.  Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and moderate to large hail, heavy downpours, the slow-moving storms especially if they train (moving over the same area) will lead to ponding on roadways and localized flash flooding, But and frequent lightning will also be a concern.  A tornado or two cannot totally be ruled out either. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe weather over Central and eastern New York State, into western New England, eastern half of Pennsylvania, into Maryland and Delaware, as I said they might, they have expanded into New Jersey.  The Marginal Risk covers a large part of the rest of the region.

The main time frame for severe storms will be between about 2 p.m. and 9 p.m.

Rest of the week

The front will slow down and stall near the Coast, New England, Southeast New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New England, and Middle Atlantic will likely still be dealing with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The frontal boundary will be exiting Friday evening and early Friday night. Behind the front, skies will be clearing out, and temperatures will cool off and it will be turning less humid into the weekend. The last weekend of August is looking to be quiet and mainly dry, temperatures look to be seasonable, the day with the best chance for some passing showers will be Sunday. For the first week of September the heat ridge that has bring hot temperatures to the western US into the Plains. will have shifted east and bringing the same general conditions to the Southeast and up the Coast. This will likely be another heat wave, especially for the Middle Atlantic Region. The first half of next week, is looking to be unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some the storms on Tuesday could be strong to severe.

Eclipse

We will have a partial lunar eclipse Thursday night. With 96.2% of the lunar surface appearing reddish. The eclipse begins at 9:23 p.m., reaching a maximum at 12:12 a.m. Friday morning. The entire eclipse ends at 3:01 am. Cloud cover could be an issue for us, especially those in the eastern half of the region. 

A great day ahead!

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

Today

We have high pressure in control for the entire region. Temperatures and Humidity levels are a bit higher than yesterday. We do have that low pressure frontal system over the Upper Great Lakes. The entire region is currently dry. But we can see the rain associated with the frontal system to the west.  Starting tonight, as the warm front gets closer, temperatures and dewpoints will rise, spotty showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible during the overnight before sunrise in far western New York State and Pennsylvania.

 

Rest of the week

 

 Tomorrow, warmer temperatures and higher Humidity, Scattered Showers/Thunderstorms Develop during the morning across western parts of the region. Over western New York State and western Pennsylvania showers and thunderstorm will be isolated to scattered. These thunderstorms will likely intensify and increase in coverage as they push east toward Central Pennsylvania and Central New York State. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over part of New York State into Pennsylvania and northern Maryland, with a Marginal Risk over most of the rest of New York State, Pennsylvania into the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic and western New England.  The greatest risk will be damaging wind gust, heavy rain, leading to a chance for some flash flooding. There will also be the risk for some hail, frequent lightning along with the chance for a couple of tornadoes. Those at the highest risk of seeing severe storms will be the Lower Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, the eastern Catskills, down into eastern Pennsylvania. It's possible The SPC expands this slight risk into New Jersey.

We will have a partial lunar eclipse Thursday night. With 96.2% of the lunar surface appearing reddish. The eclipse begins at 9:23 p.m., reaching a maximum at 12:12 a.m. Friday morning. Cloud cover could be an issue for us, especially those in the eastern half of the region.

Friday the cold front stalls out along the coast.  Keeping things unsettled.

Saturday and Sunday, don’t look too bad, but a trough will be over the region, so a few isolated showers will be possible both days.

Monday will see a southwest flow develop this will allow temperatures and dew points to climb, with conditions becoming muggy.  There will be the chance for some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.  The heat and dewpoints continue to climb for Tuesday, with a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.  Then on Wednesday a cold front will swing through, with the hot and humid conditions widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely. Some of these storms will be strong to severe.

 

Tropics

Invest 95L is done and is no longer being monitored.

Invest 96L

Invest 96L is a fairly strong tropical wave just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 96L continues to race westward through the eastern Atlantic at around 20mph.  – It hasn’t changed too much since Tuesday, with an estimated pressure 1009mb and max winds of around 35 mph. most of the convection is displaced to the southwest of the estimated center. 96L is dealing with dry air, and currently a little windshear. It’s going to continue to deal with the dry air over the next several days, with wind shear becoming a bit more problematic in 4 to 5 days.  96L is on the cusp of becoming a depression, but development is going to be slow. The National Hurricane Center has lowered the development odds to 60% for both the 2-day and 7-day. As long as conditions remain somewhat marginal this has a chance to become a depression over the next couple of day.

The next name on the list is Dolly.

The latest on El Nino

 Before I get started; I wanted to address a few things. First, I really appreciate all y’all who follow and read my blog post.  I try to make it the best I can; it’s listed in 80 Best Weather Blogs to Follow in 2026. All of this leads me to the next thing I want to talk about. That being, while some read the blog post and or take advantage of all the other resources it brings. It needs to grow in viewership. I follow some of the discussion on Socal media, and I see many don’t want to read the blog. I’m not sure why, but I think these people are missing out on a very important and education source about not only the daily weather, but also the broad aspect of weather that impacts our lives. I don’t advertise, I rely on all Y’all to share and pass along not only what is posted, but also the value you get.  Again, I want to express my gratitude to all who read and follow the blog, it means so much more to me than I can say. I also what to say thank you to Chuck Lewis, for posting when a new post is on the blog.

 

Anyway, a quick post on what’s going on with El Nino.

As the other blog post said, there have been three extreme El Ninno events in the past 50 years. These were the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 very strong El Nino’s. The question is will this current El Nino rival those events or maybe exceed them.

The links to part 1, part 2 and part 3 are here!

As the Pacific heats up this summer, the term "super" has grown on some of the scientists who were uneasy with the word earlier in the summer.

Because this El Nino is looking to be very strong “super”, people are coming up with a lot of adjectives to describe it. There using Inconceivable, Monster, Mega, Unbelievable, Mind-blowing, Devastating and many others.

I’ve avoided all the extreme hype; sticking to the facts.  But the truth is not everything you’re reading online and hearing in the media is hype. We just have to separate the facts from the hype.

 As I’ve said before, the El Nino series compares and contrast the past three Super El Nino’s to this upcoming winter. It's all very important to understand. The official multi part Winter Outlook that will start in October will piggyback and build off of them. So having an understanding of what I posted will have make things clearer moving forward.

 Current statistics

 As of late August, the eastern equatorial Pacific is generally above 3.0°C warmer than what is considered average.

SST in the Nino 3.4 region in the equatorial Pacific have been fairly stable and leveled off over the last couple of weeks, sitting generally around +2.3°C. Currently it does seem to be climbing again, as of today it’s at +2.351°C. 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Officially El Nino is running +1.8°C

 

 The other Anomalies are at +3.2 °C

The latest strength forecast.

 

Latest data released by the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP on 24 August 2026

 

 

We can see the El Nino has slowed down on growing in strength.  Does this mean it’s about as strong as it’s going to get? What is this just a temporary plateau? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does think the El Nino will peak in October or November.  It is possible this El Nino might not get quite as strong as some think. It might not become the most powerful El Nino in recorded history. But NOAA Still gives it 90% odds of becoming a very strong El Nino.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center came out with its winter seasonal outlook; it does show the general idea I’ve been talking about for the last several months.

 

 

 

There are wildcard factors that will also impact this coming winter. I talked about some of these in the other El Nino post. But another is that during very strong El Nino’s we typically have a supercharged Southern Jet. The northern Pacific isn’t as warm as it has been in many of the stronger El Nino’s. The temperature contrast between the very warm equatorial Pacific and the northern Pacific could enhance that southern jet even more than would be expected. This could have a big influence on the Southern U.S. As well as the Southeast into the Middle Atlantic.  

Here's a look at snowfall anomalies encompassing the 10 strongest El Nino’s on record. We can see above average snowfall across the southern half of the U.S, up into the Middle Atlantic. With below average snowfall across the northern U.S., especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast.  

We will have to watch how all of this evolves. But an active and volatile winter is looking likely!

Let me know what you think. I will be happy to answer questions. 

Still unseasonably cool!

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

   

Week overview

The high-pressure heat ridge is going to build east the end of the week.  So, we will warm up across the Middle Atlantic.  We’re also going to be dealing with a persistent Omega Block over the next few weeks. So, while we warm up, it shouldn’t end up a prolonged hot spell.

Today

It will be similar to Monday, with cool conditions by August standards. We do have a few little troughs moving through that will create scattered showers across northern parts of the region, and isolated showers over the southern part. Those away from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will see a lot of rain-free time.  We do have high pressure moving in, this is going to push the lake effect rain downwind of the Great Lakes southward, then it should end this afternoon. Skies will start to clear west to east across the region.

Rest of the week

We are all dry on Wednesday as temperatures get back to near average. With high pressure overhead, there will be a lot more sun, the region looks to stay dry, with humidity levels starting to inch up.

 

Thursday a cold front will approach, ahead of the front temperatures will become above average and humidity will be noticeable. Thursday an approaching system will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Western parts of the region will see rain showers move in Thursday morning. These will work their way east during the day into Thursday night. These rain and thunderstorms will be scattered, but it doesn’t look to be a washout. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and isolated moderate to large hail …  Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large part of the region at a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. There is a chance the SPC upgrades or/and expands the risk into the Delmarva and New England. A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into Friday morning/ early afternoon as the cold front clears the region, with skies clearing west to east across the region. Behind the front temperatures will once again become below average, with dew points becoming very comfortable.

Next weekend looks to be tranquil. We should see a good deal of sunshine and high temperatures look to be slightly below average to near average for both days For Saturday and much of Sunday the region should stay mostly dry with only a slight chance for an isolated shower as a trough hangs around.

Monday and Tuesday will see a cold front to our west; this looks to get hung up. It will be close enough for a few showers and thunderstorms but there should be plenty of dry time. The farther west you are, the greater your chance of seeing this unsettled weather. We will see a southernly flow, that will allow temperatures to become quite warm with humidly being very noticeable.

 

Tropics

Invest 95L

95L is east of Bermuda, it continues to struggle and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has lowered the development odds to 40%. It still has a slight chance to develop, but the window is closing quickly, as wind shear will pick back up later today and Wednesday, as 95L picks up speed and heads northward. This will bring rain to Atlantic Canada, but the worst of the conditions should stay out in the shipping lanes. 95L will head into the cooler waters of the far northern Atlantic Thursday into Friday.

That other tropical wave.

We have a vigorous tropical wave near Cabo Verde. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated this Invest 96L. 96L has a good chance of becoming Dolly down the road.  The NHC has this at a high 70% chance of development over the next 2 and 7-day.

Looking at it on satellite, the tropical wave is showing signs of getting its act together. There is some atmospheric moisture around 96L, but dry air is still an issue. Wind shear is moderate. So, any development will remain very slow.  96L looks to generally track west-northwest over the next few days.  If this is the case, 96L should be near the northern Leeward Islands late Saturday or Sunday. Sea-surface temperatures in that part of the Atlantic are 82°F and 84°F. With the ridge building eastward, the wind shear will become more favorable, so this could become Dolly, if it makes it that far!

From there is should start to make a turn to the north. All of this will depend on the Bermuda high, as this builds, it will force this to keep this on this general course, but it’s strength and location will determine when it begins to take that northern turn.